The Latest from Iran (10 July): The Plot Against the President

1915 GMT: Thanks to readers for keeping the news and analysis coming in. We're taking a personal break today (between you and me, it's the daughter's birthday party) and will be back with a full service from Sunday morning.

1910 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Behzad Arab Gol, a member of Mir Hossein Mousavi’s election campaign team, has been released from prison on a bail of more than $100,000 after more than six months in detention.

NEW Iran Exclusive: The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II
Iran Document: Detained Student Leader Tavakoli on 18 Tir & Protest (6 July)
Iran Analysis: Assessing the Bazaar Strikes & a Political Twist (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (9 July): Remembering 18 Tir?

1320 GMT: Heat? What Heat? The Government's holidays on Sunday and Monday for "excessive heat" seems to have disappeared for factory workers.

The Iranian Labor News Agency quotes the head of the Tehran Work and Social Affairs Organization, who says factories will be open even though government offices will be closed

An EA correspondent asks, "If the new holidays were due to hot weather, why would you close down offices but not factories whose workers would be affected more by the heat?"

1315 GMT: Remembering. Human Rights Activists News Agency reports that 2000 people were at Beheshte Zahra cemetery yesterday to remember loved ones, including those killed in post-election conflict.

1305 GMT: Supreme Leader "Justice and Peace --- Unless You're America". Meeting Iranian officials and ambassadors to commemorate Eid-al-Mab'ath, the day when Muhammad was appointed to prophethood, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei offered greetings of "justice, peace, and security for all humans".

That is, with one exception. The Supreme Leader said Islam was opposed to "corrupt" Washington, with its huge budget to wage wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and to help Israel maintain instability in the Middle East.

1105 GMT: Holidays Because of Weather Heat or Political Heat? Peyke Iran claims The head of Iran's national weather service has said his unit did not advise holidays on Sunday and Monday because of high temperatures: the "weather is no hotter than normal".

Hmm.... maybe it's the Government that is especially sensitive to the heat these days.

1100 GMT: The Right Civil Disobedience. Iranian political scientist Ramin Jahanbegloo, now living abroad, talks to Rah-e-Sabz about protest and "ending the culture of violence". Assessing opposition strategy, he declares, "Using violence as an excuse does not justify it."

0920 GMT: The Battle Within. Conservative politician Morteza Nabavi has said that President Ahmadinejad's supporters "promote an Islam without clergy".

MP Younes Assadi has warned that, if Minister of Welfare Sadegh Mahsouli "does not change his actions", he will be called to account before the Majlis during next three months.

0900 GMT: International Development. Islamic Republic News Agency highlights the signing of six agreements in New Delhi between Iranian and Indian delegations. The pacts cover cooperation in new and renewable energy, small industry, science and technology, and pulp and paper production.

0855 GMT: Labour Front. Rah-e-Sabz claims that 200 drivers at the Tehran and Suburbs Bus Company (Sherkate Vahed) are on the verge of dismissal.

0715 GMT: Oil Squeeze. Reihaneh Mazaheri, writing in Mianeh, reports from traders that Iran is discounting oil between $3 and $7 per barrel to prop up sales amidst sanctions and reduction in demand.

0710 GMT: Power Cut. Rah-e-Sabz claims that some parts of Tehran have gone 12 hours without electricity.

0700 GMT: Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Back to our special analysis of the rising challenge to the President --- Agence France Presse has noticed something is up, quoting from a speech by Ali Larijani on Friday in Karaj:

If we want to stand up to our enemies, we need to improve the economy. Iran has big oil and gas reserves -- the way to use that wealth is not by handing out money to people but by using it to develop the nation's productive capacity. Social justice... means providing universal employment not giving monthly handouts to stop people starving....

How can you ask an ordinary villager to respect the law, if politicians don't?...We in Parliament will not allow anybody...to disregard the law because that's an act of rebellion and a shameful violation.

0610 GMT: We begin this morning with an exclusive report and analysis, based on information from a range of sources, "The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II".

Meanwhile, after an 18 Tir which passed relatively quietly, even though it was the anniversary of the 1999 university demonstrations....

The Bazaar Strikes

The bazaars will now effectively be closed from this past Thursday to Monday --- the Government, because of "extreme heat", has added Sunday and Monday as public holidays to today's religious holiday of Mab'as.

Robert Tait offers an overview and analysis of the situation in an article for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Mousavi's Moves

In what has been a most active week for Mir Hossein Mousavi --- even if the effect of his moves is unknown at this point --- the opposition figure has added a statement on "The Diversity of the Green Movement", rejecting the need for a leader. He has met with reformist students to suggest, that if those who caused the catastrophe of 18 Tir (the suppression of the 1999 demonstrations) were punished, the post-election attacks on the universities dormitories would not have occurred.

In Rah-e-Sabz, Mehdi Jalali asks, "Do we want a secular Mousavi?" Jalali asserts that Mousavi could never be secular but points to his three promises of freedom of expression, freedom of assembly and organisation, and free elections as a basis for mutual trust.

Political Prisoner Watch

Video has been posted of a telephone interview with recently-released human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, who claims she was abused and put in solitary confinement. She had a pulmonary embolism in prison and is still very weak.

Israel Video: Netanyahu "Why the World Needs Us" (8 July)

On Thursday, when asked whether direct talks with PA President Mahmoud Abbas would lead to an agreement within a year; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu answered at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York: "Yes, I think so."

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3jwcbXHr8o[/youtube]

US-Israel Video: Obama “The Problem For Some Might Be My Middle Name”
Israel Video & Transcript: Netanyahu on CNN’s Larry King

Describing the whole picture of the region, Netanyahu said that "Israel provides a strategic service to Western values in an unstable region beginning with West India and ends with somewhere in North Africa". Netanyahu added: "At the heart of instability, Israel is the source of stability."

Netanyahu added:

The service Israel does in the Middle East is much appreciated by the governments that are actually acting to stabilize the Middle East; chief among them is the United States.

Pakistan: Connections from Democracy to Civil War (and How to Change Them)

EA correspondent Josh Mull is the Afghanistan Blogging Fellow for The Seminal and Brave New Foundation. He also writes for Rethink Afghanistan:

Earlier this week, I wrote about an impending civil war in Pakistan, projecting a possible "complete collapse of Pakistan as a recognizable entity", not because of its geography --- it has survived breakaway provinces before, with national identities still intact --- but because of its structure as a modern, democratic society.  Some readers were understandably skeptical.

Afghanistan Projection: Pakistan’s “Strategic Depth” & Endless War (Mull)

Beyond the violence and anti-Americanism we see in the Western press, Pakistan offers much that we foreigners can recognise. It has a powerful military and institutions of civil society much like the West, but it also has fervent patriotic pride, struggles with women's and minority rights, and a constant battle between secular progressives and conservative fundamentalists that will be instantly familiar to any American. Far from the alien, failed state portrayed on television, Pakistan is a vibrant, cosmopolitan society dealing with the same grand cultural questions as those in many other countries.

So how do you get from this to complete collapse? How could a painstakingly constructed democracy disintegrate, and how could a powerful, western-backed military fail so miserably to protect the nation in the face of what seems only to be illiterate, fascist hill people and their sickeningly backward superstitions?

The problem is not only one of perception, that we take both the Pakistan we love (liberal, educated patriots) and the Pakistan we hate (wicked, violent Taliban) for granted --- always there, never changing. More than that, Pakistan's uncertain future is the direct result of deliberate policy choices by the US, Pakistan, and many others. The collapse will not be sudden and spectacular; it will be the slow culmination of years, decades, of decisions and actions, both large and small, from the enormously important to the pathetically insignificant.

Every ISAF soldier, every night raid, every civilian casualty, every fresh Taliban recruit, every drone strike, every Blackwater mercenary, every stolen election we overlook, every elected representative we sideline and marginalize, every "strategic summit" with General Kiyani and General Musharraf before him, every unaccountable dollar we funnel to the corrupt in Kabul, Islamabad, and Rawalpindi, every single, tiny action is a pinprick to the stability of the region, an almost unnoticeable chipping away at the integrity of Pakistan, as well as its neighbor Afghanistan.

Pakistan is equally liable, with its long history of supporting terrorists and militants, its capitulation to the worst extremist and de-stabilizing elements in society, its willingness to betray democracy in favor of dictatorship, its negation of long-term national goals for short-term gains from unhelpful foreign alliances, its victimization of its own citizens (first in East Pakistan, now in Balochistan), and of course the inexplicably obsessive appetite for, the fetish of Pakistan's elite for war with India.

These individual policies in turn feed our mistaken perceptions. We see them as isolated, not in their complete context. Sure the civilian casualties recruit militants, we say, but we're fighting a war. Sure the war in Afghanistan is bad, but we're pushing the extremists across the border. Sure the extremists in Pakistan are bad, but we support the western-educated Army. Sure the Army is unelected, but the civilian government is corrupt. And on and on it goes until there's simply nothing left. Afghanistan destroyed, Pakistan inflamed, and our own country politically and economically ripping apart at the seams. It all adds up, whether we're awake to it or not.

None of this is new information, mind you. These are well-documented facts that have been discussed at length in this space. But how is it that the democracy in Pakistan, the liberal, educated modern society so similar to that of the US, can break down? What does an American soldier in Kandahar, Afghanistan have to do with the democratic government in Islamabad, Pakistan, or any of these seemingly disparate and disconnected issues?

We can see that connection on the Internet. First, a report in the Christian Science Monitor [emphasis mine]:

“its now time to implenet islam [sic] and hang black water, rehamn malik and zardari till death,” posts one user, referring to the private American security firm, Pakistan’s interior minister, and Pakistan's president.

That [Facebook Wall Post] appeared on the page of Hizb-ut-Tahrir, a global Islamist party that denounces democracy and campaigns for the establishment of a global caliphate (akin to an empire) based on Islamic Law. The user goes by “Commander Khattab,” the name of deceased Chechen guerrilla leader.[...]

[Hizb-ut-Tahrir spokesman Naveed Butt] claims that the SMS blasts are beginning to influence its target audience of “influential people” such as parliamentarians, lawyers, students, and journalists. “We’re steadily growing in number, as educated people realize democracy will never deliver. Practically they are seeing there is no way out for Pakistan. Secularism will never work. People are committing suicide, people are dying.”...

Khutum-e-Naboohat faces no such difficulties in keeping its operations running. According to Mr. Rashid, wealthy donors help pay the bills while the tech-savvy youngsters among its ranks maintain their website.

“We either work from home or from the computers here in the mosque,” says Umar Shah, a web designer. “It’s important to spare time for this mission because it’s a matter of our faith.”...

“The government has never tried to stop it,” [Saleem-ul-Haque Khan] says.

The government hasn't done anything to stop the extremists plotting its destruction, but it has taken other actions. From Reporters Without Borders [emphasis mine]:

“The situation of online free expression is deteriorating in Pakistan,” the press freedom organisation said. “The vice has been tightening since access to Facebook was blocked in mid-May. The country seems to want massive Internet surveillance and is moving towards a targeted filtering system that is neither transparent nor respectful of rights and freedoms.”

Among the sites to be kept under watch are Yahoo!, MSN, Hotmail, YouTube, Google, Islam Exposed, In the Name of Allah, Amazon and Bing. Thirteen sites have already been blocked including www.skepticsannotatedbible.com, www.middle-east-info.org, www.faithfreedom.org, www.thereligionofpeace.com, www.abrahamic-faith.com, www.muhammadlied.com, www.prophetofdoom.net, www.worldthreats.com,www.voiceofbelievers.com and www.walidshoebat.com.

The government can monitor and block access to sites like YouTube and Google, sites which allow the free flow of information not only for blasphemy but also for dissent, accountability, and all manner of democratic movements. Meanwhile the extremist, anti-government forces are allowed to flourish without fear. Right there is everything you need to know to see the grand connection.

Why is the government blocking access to dissent? Because the extremists call it blasphemous. Why must the government give in to this? Because it is weakened from both the American marginalization of democracy and the foreign backing of extremists, allowing the Taliban to "punch above its weight" and forcing the government to punch far below its. Where is the real power in Pakistan? With the Army and intelligence services, supported by the US, who then in turn support the extremists and militants. What allows those extremists to advance into Pakistani society? They blur the issues of the US war in Afghanistan and our policies in Pakistan ("black water") into domestic politics ("hang...zardari").

The liberal, educated Pakistani democrat has an ally in the extremist who wants to fight the US puppet government, who in turn has an ally in the Taliban fighting the Americans, who in turn has an ally in Afghanistan whose family was killed by NATO bombs, who in turn has an ally in the Pakistani intelligence services, them an ally in the Army, and those in the Army undermine the government which, of course, then sets off the liberal, educated Pakistani democrat.

Get the picture? This is where it all crashes together, the crossroads of the war in Afghanistan, "Strategic Depth", undermining democracy in Pakistan - everything. This is how it works out, how we'll see the "complete collapse of Pakistan as a recognizable entity." There is no awesome explosion, no moment of shattering, no one culprit on which to pin all the blame.

This is what the complete collapse will look like. No one left we can recognise as an ally, only violent resistance, war, and destruction. No more vibrant, democratic society, no more progressive struggles, no more women's, minority, or even human rights. Only war remains, in Afghanistan, in Pakistan, and likely spreading out into India and across the entire sub-continent.

However, just because these problems are so enormous does not mean that they cannot be solved. In fact, the exact same principles that went into creating these problems --- the disconnections of individual actions --- are precisely what will work for us.

Pakistani citizens are standing up, rejecting the extremists' calls for violence, fighting the corruption of their elected officials, and working in all branches of the government to reform their fragile system. Each individual adds up into a movement, and that movement adds up to stifling their country's descent into civil war.

But we as Americans also have a responsibility to act individually. Every time you call congress (dial (202) 224-3121 and ask for your representative), every meeting you attend, every bit of pressure on your government --- it all adds up. A few concerned filmmakers and journalists becomes Rethink Afghanistan. A couple of dedicated bloggers becomes Firedoglake. A handful of progressive activists becomes ActBlue. Small, disconnected acts turn into a huge movement. Your short meeting at your congressman's office turns into their vote for reforming our policies toward the region, into ending the war in Afghanistan, peace in Pakistan, and free and stable governments for both Pakistanis and Afghans.

No one action created the horrendous instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and no one person, not even President Obama, can end the war and solve these problems by themselves. The problems will be solved the same way they were created, through concerned, individual citizens taking action for themselves.

Iran Exclusive: The Plot to Remove Ahmadinejad, Act II

EA sources report that, within the last two weeks, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, key MP and Larijani ally Ahmad Tavakoli, Secretary of Expediency Council and 2009 Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei, and possibly MP Ali Motahari have met to discuss limiting the authority and possibly removing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from power.

This inner circle are dissatisfied with the performance of the Supreme Leader in the post-election crisis. They are not seeking any change to his position, however; rather they want Ayatollah Khamenei to take a stronger stand against Ahmadinejad and those who support him.

LATEST Iran Special: A Response to “The Plot Against Ahmadinejad” (Verde)
Iran: The Plot Against President Ahmadinejad (January 2010)

The group has been encouraging senior clerics to come out publicly against the Government and, critically, they are reaching out to former President Hashemi Rafsanjani to join them.

How did Iran get here? And where is this heading?



The Background

Conservative/principlist dissatisfaction with the Government is now at the centre of political and economic developments in Iran. This, however, is not the first time that its leading representatives have considered making a move against the President.

In January, according to EA sources, Larijani, Rezaei, and Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf met to consider the options. The regime had been rocked by the protests of Ashura (27 December), and the three men believed that the Ahmadinejad Government --- uncertain in its handling of the country's affairs and stained by post-election abuses --- might not be able to withstand the challenge.

The approach considered by the meeting was to chip away at Ahmadinejad's inner circle, targeting advisors such as chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai and former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi. The group agreed that Ahmadinejad should then be removed, although this should be done "within the framework of the law".

The public face of this effort may have been statements by Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager of Rezaei's 2009 Presidential campaign and the father of Mohsen Ruholamini, who died in Kahrizak Prison after the election. On at least two occasions, Ruholamini declared, "We have much evidence against Mortazavi, against police, against some judges" over Kahrizak, and he called for accountability over the post-election abuses.

The initiative stalled. An approach was apparently made to key opposition figures like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to offer support for the effort, but there was no response. Hashemi Rafsanjani --- if he knew of the discussions --- did not move from his cautious public position. Most importantly, the events of 22 Bahman (11 February) gave the impression, perhaps misleading, that the Government had put Ashura behind it and had suppressed the opposition challenge.

THE MOTIVES NOW

This did not mean that the conservative/principlist worries over Ahmadinejad had been quelled; to the contrary, tensions have only increased in recent months. For Larijani-Rezaei-Tavakoli, the following seem to be significant:

1. The Kahrizak Case

EA sources report that the catalyst for dissatisfaction over the Government's handling of post-election conflict continues to be the Kahrizak Prison abuse case. The decision to hold a closed-door "trial", handing out two death sentences and nine prison terms to nine minor figures, has stoked the anger of many within the Iranian establishment.

Larijani-Rezaei-Tavakoli want Mortazavi, who was overseeing the detentions at the time, to be held accountable. In addition, they may also want at least one high-ranking figure from the military and intelligence services to take responsibility for Kahrizak.

2. The Battle Between Parliament and President

The struggle between the Majlis and Ahmadinejad;s forces has been developing for a long time. It is now in the open on a daily basis, however, and the stakes were raised,when demonstrations were allegedly organised against the Parliament in the conflict over control of Islamic Azad University.

For Larijani-Rezaei-Tavakoli and their allies, this may now appear to be more than a question of political influence but of the survival of Parliament as anything more than a token institution.

3. The Downward Spiral of the Economy

EA sources indicate, however, that the most significant issue may be the deterioration in Iran's economy. With signs of difficulty, if not crisis, in industry, the squeeze on the vital energy sectors --- in production, imports, and exports --- rising prices, and the resistance of protests and strikes, Larijani-Rezaei-Tavakoli are facing not only the erosion of public support for the establishment but of open dissatisfaction.

And all of this occurs before the introduction of subsidy cuts, reportedly in the autumn. The price rise in areas such as food and energy is likely to fuel more anger.

The Strategy?

Two weeks ago, Larijani went to Qom and met senior clerics, including Ayatollahs Makarem-Shirazi, Mousavi-Ardebili, and Safi Golpayegani. His message, according to EA sources, was that his role was "no longer important" in the Iranian system; Ahmadinejad and his circle were imposing themselves on Iran's institutions, suppressing legislative and judicial authority. The Supreme Leader appeared unable to check this imposition.

Larijani also noted a new development, pointing out the harassment of Seyed Hassan Khomeini at the ceremony for his grandfather on 4 June and the attacks on the houses of senior clerics such as Grand Ayatollah Sane'i and the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.

Larijani's appeal? Speak out, otherwise the Government would reduce all others to bystanders.

(Significantly, the Supreme Leader went to Qom a few days later to tell those same senior clerics that velayat-e-faqih, the system of ultimate clerical authority, had to be sustained. He may also have given reassurances that the attacks on clerics would not re-occur. And, since early June, they have not.)

The Larijani-Rezaei-Tavakoli meeting then appears to have agreed on a "stalking horse" initiative to test support for a move against the President. In January, the speeches came from Ruholamini over Kahrizak; last week, the direct challenge came from Tavakoli in Parliament, as he took on the Government across the spectrum of post-election conflict, corruption, and the economy. Larijani also made a series of pointed, if often coded, references to the "lawbreaking" of the Government.

The Problems

EA readers asked in January, "How exactly would Ahmadinejad be removed?", and this important question remains today. Even though Tavakoli has now publicly raised, for the first time, the process of impeachment, the challenge of getting 2/3 of Parliament's members to support the ousting of the President --- even in this political and economic environment --- may be too great.

And, behind the President, there are other institutions and groups like the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. So far, despite rumours, there has no been of IRGC figures or even senior military commanders breaking from the Government. Can Larijani-Rezaei-Tavakoli and allies afford to take the risk of challenging the might behind Ahmadinejad with their political manoeuvres?

That is why the appeals to senior clerics and to Rafsanjani are significant. Any challenge needs to have a wide base from the political and clerical establishments to present the image of a "majority" now unable to cope with the degraded if not illegitimate rule of a "minority" cluster around the President.

So far, however, Rafsanjani has made no apparent move to talk to the inner group, let alone join them, and no senior cleric has come out in public opposition. (Grand Ayatollah Sane'i and Ayatollah Dastgheib, who are both most vocal and public critics of the Government, are linked so closely to the post-election opposition that they are on the political margins of this contest.)

And there is the issue of the Supreme Leader. At times he may have wavered in his public support of Ahmadinejad but he has never withdrawn it. Barring the unlikely path of impeaching of the President, the likely scenario is that Ahmadinejad is "encouraged" to resign or at least give up much of his executive authority to other branches of the Government.

For all the drama of this news, the prosaic reality is that Ayatollah Khamenei has to come out in criticism of his President. And for that to happen, the Supreme Leader needs to be confronted with a widely-backed appeal from the politicians and clerics.

US Special: The Anti-Capitalist Evil of Kids Giving Away Lemonade

UPDATE 2015 GMT: Oh, my sweet Lord, it's not a satire. The aptly-named Terry Savage is very, very serious:



In the category of We Really Hope This Column is Just a Fantastic Satire, an offering from the aptly-named Terry Savage of the Chicago Sun-Times:



This column is a true story -- every word of it. And I think it very appropriate to consider around the Fourth of July, Independence Day spirit.

Last week, I was in a car with my brother and his fiancee, driving through their upscale neighborhood on a hot summer day. At the corner, we all noticed three little girls sitting at a homemade lemonade stand.

We follow the same rules in our family, and one of them is: Always stop to buy lemonade from kids who are entrepreneurial enough to open up a little business.

My brother immediately pulled over to the side of the road and asked about the choices.

The three young girls -- under the watchful eye of a nanny, sitting on the grass with them -- explained that they had regular lemonade, raspberry lemonade, and small chocolate candy bars.

Then my brother asked how much each item cost.

"Oh, no," they replied in unison, "they're all free!"

I sat in the back seat in shock. Free? My brother questioned them again: "But you have to charge something? What should I pay for a lemonade? I'm really thirsty!"

His fiancee smiled and commented, "Isn't that cute. They have the spirit of giving."

That really set me off, as my regular readers can imagine.

"No!" I exclaimed from the back seat. "That's not the spirit of giving. You can only really give when you give something you own. They're giving away their parents' things -- the lemonade, cups, candy. It's not theirs to give."

I pushed the button to roll down the window and stuck my head out to set them straight.

"You must charge something for the lemonade," I explained. "That's the whole point of a lemonade stand. You figure out your costs -- how much the lemonade costs, and the cups -- and then you charge a little more than what it costs you, so you can make money. Then you can buy more stuff, and make more lemonade, and sell it and make more money."

I was confident I had explained it clearly. Until my brother, breaking the tension, ordered a raspberry lemonade. As they handed it to him, he again asked: "So how much is it?"

And the girls once again replied: "It's free!" And the nanny looked on contentedly.

No wonder America is getting it all wrong when it comes to government, and taxes, and policy. We all act as if the "lemonade" or benefits we're "giving away" is free.

And so the voters demand more -- more subsidies for mortgages, more bailouts, more loan modification and longer periods of unemployment benefits.

They're all very nice. But these things aren't free.

The government only gets the money to pay these benefits by raising taxes, meaning taxpayers pay for the "free lemonade." Or by printing money -- which is essentially a tax on savings, since printing more money devalues the wealth we hold in dollars.

If we can't teach our kids the basics of running a lemonade stand, how can we ever teach Congress the basics of economics?

Or maybe it's the other way around: The kids are learning from the society around them. No one has ever taught them there's no free lunch -- and all they see is "free," not the result of hard work, and saving, and scrimping.

If that's what America's children think -- that there's a free lunch waiting -- then our country has larger problems ahead. The Declaration of Independence promised "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness." It didn't promise anything free. Something to think about this July 4th holiday weekend.

And that's the Savage Truth!