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Tuesday
Jul272010

UPDATED Afghanistan: At Least 45 Civilians Killed in Rocket Attack

UPDATE 27 July: From Reuters....

*Afghan government and NATO officials on Tuesday disputed each others' accounts of reports that over 50 civilians were killed after being caught up in fighting between foreign forces and Taliban insurgents.

Government spokesman Siamak Herawi said 52 people, many women and children, were killed by a NATO-rocket attack on Friday in Sangin, Helmand province, but the NATO-led force said a preliminary investigation had not yet revealed any civilian casualties....

Afghanistan LiveBlog: Wikileaks and The Truth About the US Occupation
Afghanistan: The Wikileaks “War Diary” of 91,000 Documents


Herawi said information that 52 civilians had been killed came from the country's intelligence service in the district.

Karzai strongly condemned the attack and asked NATO troops to prioritize the protection of civilians in their military campaign, his office said in a statement citing the same casualty figures for the attack.

ISAF, however, insisted that a joint investigation with the Afghan government had so far found no evidence of civilian deaths, while a provincial official suggested local residents could even have made it up....

An ISAF spokeswoman said the team was still in the area, trying to establish the truth.



"We take any civilian casualty very seriously but there was no report of operational activity in Rigi," said Lt. Cmdr. Katie Kendrick.*

Amidst the chatter over the Wikileaks "War Diary" of 91,000 documents on the military intervention in Afghanistan, Al Jazeera reports that a rocket attack on an Afghan village last Friday killed at least 45 civilians, including women and children.

Waheed Omar, a spokesman for Afghan President Hamid Karzai, said an investigation was underway to determine who was responsible for the attack in Sangin district in the southern province of Helmand.

According to witnesses, helicopter gunships fired on villagers who had been told by fighters to leave their homes, as a firefight with the International Security Assistance Force loomed.

According to witness accounts, men, women and children fled to Regey village and were fired on from helicopter gunships as they took cover.

Abdul Ghafar, 45, who said he lost "two daughters and one son and two sisters" in the attack, claimed that the gunship fired on areas of shelter: "Helicopters started firing on the compound killing almost everyone inside. We rushed to the house and there were eight children wounded and around 40 to 50 others killed.".

The BBC said it sent an Afghan reporter to Regey to interview residents, who described the attack and said they had buried 39 people.

Colonel Wayne Shanks, an ISAF spokesman, said the location of the reported deaths was "several kilometres away from where we had engaged enemy fighters". An investigation team dispatched after the casualty reports emerged "had accounted for all the rounds that were shot at the enemy....We found no evidence of civilian casualties."
Tuesday
Jul272010

UPDATED Egypt: Mubarak's Not-So-Secret Cancer?

UPDATE 27 July: President Mubarak, in a thank-you letter to the spiritual leader of the Israeli religious party Shas, has said he is in great shape and "fully recovered". Rabbi Ovadia Yosef had sent a "Get Well" card two weeks ago.



UPDATE 24 July: Ten days after officials said he would be his attendance at the African Union summit in Uganda would demonstrate his good health, President Mubarak has cancelled the trip. Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif will now represent Cairo.

On Wednesday, presidential spokesman Suleiman Awwad had again dismissed reports that Mubarak was ill, saying staff were "out of breath" trying to keep up with his schedule.

UPDATE 19 July: The Mubarak cancer story has now made the pages of The Washington Times: "The 82-year-old Egyptian leader is thought by most Western intelligence agencies to be dying from terminal cancer affecting his stomach and pancreas."

UPDATE 13 July: As-Safir reports that Mubarak is going to Germany this week for another round of medical treatment. The Egyptian President had been scheduled to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas in advance of Saturday's arrival by US envoy George Mitchell.

UPDATE 1600 GMT: A twist in the tale....

The Jerusalem Post, where we first saw the story this morning, has now removed any reference to cancer and posted the headline, "Mubarak Has Fallen Ill". The original Al-Quds al-Arabi story does appear to refer to medical tests in relation to a tumour.

EA has had reliable reports that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is suffering from cancer, raising questions over the country's political future. Egyptian authorities have been keen to keep the news from emerging, but the wall started to crumble when Mubarak had treatment in Germany --- the ostensible reason was gall-bladder surgery --- in March.

Now the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi has brought out the story. Mubarak has been in Paris, nominally to meet French President Sarkozy and Lebanese Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri, but the newspaper says he has also undergone a round of medical tests.
Tuesday
Jul272010

Iran Document: Mousavi on Governing and Mis-Governing, Now and in the 1980s (26 July)

An English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement on Monday, posted on the Facebook site supporting him:

During the last years of his regime, the second Pahlavi (the Shah, overthrown in 1979) also announced that the Rastakhiz Party (Renaissance Party) is the only party in the country and we all saw what his fate was. [Editor's Note: This is a reference to President Ahmadinejad's recent declaration that Iran only needs one political party, the Velayat Party.]

Some have seriously mixed the celebration of this day [the birthday of Imam Mehdi, the 12th "hidden" Imam] and the philosophy of “waiting”[for his reappearance] with political agendas and superstitious. Now there are some internet websites that based on their forecast for the resurrection give made-up commentaries on country’s internal and international policies.

In these commentaries, the presence of the United States is considered as a confrontation with Imam Mehdi. Worse than that, dangerous and adventurous policies are recommended to help the resurrection [of the Imam Mehdi]....Some of the foreign policies that have caused the current critical situation have root in this kind of mentality, and the problem does not even end with the foreign policies. With a mind like this, an unordinary sensitivity toward the word progress is formed and this is one of the reasons behind eliminating the planning system and shutting down important councils.

With this belief that in six months to a year Imam Mehdi will emerge, they shut down Kangan Port and Southern Pars [oil and gas] projects. Any planning for water or electricity and in general the economy of the country is halted and instead of creating jobs and trying to invest, the charity-type economy and distributing money among people is substituted. The philosophy of “waiting”, which has always made the believers and followers of Imam Mehdi put in more effort, has been turned upside down.

The rule of justice and elimination of injustice and oppression from the society is the focus of narratives about the resurrection. The root of immoralities in the society are the rule of injustice and the government’s divergence from justice. Don’t think that you can keep a great number of the nation’s children, including intellectuals, academia, teachers, workers, journalists, women and youths, in prison in the name of Islamic government but that this injustice and oppression will have no effect on the people’s beliefs.

Establishing justice and avoiding injustice is the important criterion for measuring how close is a societyto that to the kind ready for Imam Mehdi. The more a regime distances itself from justice and commits injustice, oppression and mistreatment of the people the more it distances itself from the kind of society acceptable to Imam Mehdi.

Ignoring the nation’s right to rule its own fate, disregarding the national covenant and demolishing nation’s rights, shutting down voices and newspapers and turning the national media into an exclusive one, wasting public resources with major economic corruptions, and breaking the backs of the workers, farmers, and employees under high costs are all signs of injustice and oppression and  society distancing from the Imam Mehdi’s values.

In a society acceptable to Imam Mehdi, they don’t overlook the major thieves to cut off the hands of a petty thief. We ask again and we will not get tired of asking, "What happened to the files of major financial corruptions?" They were opened in the Parliament, which is in line with the administration, but then the Parliament was shockingly and suddenly silenced.

In this effort not only the foreigners and allies of Saddam [Hussein] are active but the administration’s agents as well.

The appendices that were published [in Government newspapers around the 12 June anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election] are good excuses for the Green Movement to, alongside all its activities, face the history of the last 30 years realistically and study it with its independent investigation.

These days, with the excuse of the anniversary of UN Resolution 598 (the resolution that ended the 1980-1988 war between Iran and Iraq) --- in no previous year had they remembered it --- clear and planned distortions about the history of the Holy Defence (against Iraq’s invasion) and the role of the administration at the time (the cabinet of Prime Minister Mousavi) are fabricated.

These days some are claiming that they wanted to conquer Baghdad but the administration at the time prevented them. I have not yet spoken of the first decade after the revolution and had never intended to speak about it. Apparently, if these distortions continue, to defend the brave soldiers and leaders who had great roles [in protecting the country], I have to tell my untold stories and also what was the reason behind my resignation in 1989.

That former Minister, who himself knows how he was forced on me and knows better than anyone else how all of the government’s facilities were flooding to the war fronts, now says that, if the government’s facilities were at the disposal of the war fronts, we would have conquered Baghdad.

I say that if you [this former Minister]....had the control of the government, you would have done the same thing to the country that you did with the money set aside for the poor and orphans in the Foundation for the Underprivileged during your time as its head.

I cannot believe that [the former Minister has] forgotten that $4 billion out of the $6 billion of the oil revenues were spent at the war fronts and on the war, and the remaining $2 billion were in fact to protect the country....You force me to say that despite the bright outcome of the Holy Defence --- at the cost of the sacrifice of the blood of many and the devotion of the soldiers ready to die --- was that not even a square centimetre of the land of this country was forfeited to the enemy....

Conquering Iraq by handing the government to a few military commanders was not possible. But to achieve the enemy’s certain defeat, it was necessary that from the beginning the relationship between the administration and the control of the war and military planning was not cut. How this relationship was cut is another story that maybe I will explain at another time.

After, as this former minister says,...the control of “the command headquarters for all forces” was given to the administration, there were great improvements in the war fronts in that small time frame....At that time, I accepted the responsibility of heading “the command headquarters for all forces” with the condition that I bring some of the brilliant managers and directors to that centre.

One of the most prominent and most influential of them was Mr. Behzad Nabavi, the senior member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution Organization, who we know has all kind of troubles these days [Nabavi has been detained since last summer]. The decision that the headquarters, alongside the military commanders and these brilliant managers, was a fundamental change in the arrangement of the fronts and it was decided that in the least possible tim,e using all of the country’s facilities, the troops present in Kurdestan were transferred to Khuzestan. With the efforts of the governor of Khuzestan,...Mohsen Mirdamadi (the currently imprisoned chairman of the Islamic Iran Participation Front), and other managers in the province, measures were taken to deal with the imminent attack of the enemy.

The prediction of the headquarters was correct. Soon one of the strongest attacks of Saddam occurred and there was one the most epic battles in the history of the Holy Defence, which involved the martyrdom of several children of our country. The enemy received such a slap in the face that after thatit  could not manage another attack and that all it could do was to support Monafeghin (the "terrorist" Mojahedin-e-Khalq --- MKO), which led to that great betrayal against Iran with the support of Saddam’s forces, but our people crushed them with their resistance.”

These remarks are to say that if you truly respect the blood of martyrs and the efforts of the support teams and the thorough resistance of all of the nation and the administration during this decisive war..., don’t give in to the demands of those who distort the history and play politics with it.

In the past two decades, I did not think that my own direct information from the war was sufficient, and I tried to also study the documents, manuscripts and printed analyses. I was always careful not only to look at the official documents which had been prepared under the direction of the commanders but also to use the articles and analyses of all experts including those of the Army. One of the best analyses was by the intelligent and patriotic officer, Sergeant Moeeni Vaziri, which I benefited from greatly.

This war has a lot of untold stories, and I have not seen that Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani, as the acting commander-in-chief, ever speak of his troubles harmonizing the army and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. The troubles in my view had nothing to do with the body of the IRGC or the army, and I witnessed how eroding these troubles were.

In my opinion, three years into the war, there were fundamental mistakes in determining war strategies. Sending troops to Kurdestan was one of them, and more significant than that was hoping for a great classic operation similar to the enemy’s operations. This greatly diminished our relative advantage as well as the country’s facilities, and for almost five years all of the country’s facilities --- even to the points of taking snow ploughs off the roads, using all of the government’s trucks and even confiscating trucks that belonged to the private sector, as well as employing all financial-industrial capacities of the country --- were used but the result was what we all witnessed.

The idea that this former minister raised was the remainder of those wishful hopes for the classic war plans....This kind of view of the war from the very beginning was opposed among the fighters...In the communications that the commanders, such as the martyr Haaj Davood Karimi, had with me, they preferred operations similar to those during the first era of the Holy Defence. These plans were more in line with the country’s economic and social abilities. In future, if it is needed and I am forced to, I will explain these discussions in more depth.
Tuesday
Jul272010

MENA House: "The Popular Coalition to Support Gamal Mubarak"

The streets of Cairo have been covered with posters of the face of Gamal Mubarak and the slogan "Gamal Mubarak...Gamal Masr" ("Gamal Mubarak, 'The beauty' of Egypt")

The aim of the newly-formed Popular Coalition to Support Gamal Mubarak is to promote and mobilise support for Mubarak in the upcoming Presidential elections in 2011 and to  encourage him to stand.

The co-ordinator of the group, Magdi al Kurdi, claims that it has numerous supporters from a wide variety of backgrounds. He has asserted that there are already 4000 participants and that there is backing from well-established individuals from different political parties. (Magdi al Kurdi resigned from the leftist Tagammu party to support Mubarak.)

MENA House: Music and the Egyptian Revolution


However, whilst there is much talk of Gamal's situation, the son of current President Hosni Mubarak has reiterated on numerous occasions that he does not want to run for the presidency. In a rare interview, with CNN's Fareed Zakaria, Gamal answered, "Would you run for the Presidency in Egypt in the upcoming 2011 elections?" with an articulate, resounding, and convincing "No!".

So what is the point of this new group? Asked what would happen if  Gamal refused to put himself forward in 2011, El Kurdi responded that the organisation would continue to encourage Mubarak to rethink his position.

On a side note: Ali el Deen el Helal, Youth Minister and member of the National Democratic Party, has stated openly in the People's Assembly that it is "rude" to be discussing an era after Hosni Mubarak:

1) Egypt is still 16 months from the elections.

2) Discussion is impolite until Hosni Mubarak releases an official statement that he will not be running in the election.

3) Should Mubarak step down, there is no reason to worry "Egypt will find many more intelligent potential candidates".

One wonders if Ali el Deen el Helal thinks the Popular Coalition to Support Gamal Mubarak is rude and impolite in its loud consideration of Egypt's future. And perhaps one wonders what the leader of that coalition, el Helal, makes of the activities of his fellow members of the People's Assembly.
Tuesday
Jul272010

Iran Analysis: Interpreting Khamenei's "Re-Appearing" Fatwa (Verde)

Mr Verde writes for EA:

In a development almost unnoticed outside Iran, the Supreme Leader's office has not only re-claimed the "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa but has done so with a loud defence of the decision to issue it.

The latest statement on Ayatollah Khamenei's website says that only “state orders” of the Supreme Leader must be obeyed. It blames the "media of the enemy" for creating a fuss over the fatwa, since Ayatollah Khomeini held the same views, and complains about publication of the text of the fatwa next to photographs of the SL’s meeting with military commanders. [Editor's note: is this the reason why the fatwa "disappeared" for several days? But if so, why did it not appear on Khamenei's official website in the first place, removing any ambiguity?]

Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader & the Disappearing Fatwa (Verde)


The statement also claims that the issuing of this fatwa will help widen the circle of regime insiders, continuing Khamenei’s call last year for inclusion.

Observations

The statement is a very angry one which tries to blame the enemy for the fuss over the fatwa and to hide behind Khoemini as well as claiming --- without saying how --- that Khamenei wants to expand the number of people within the regime.

When the fatwa was originally issued, there were probably three objectives:

1) To provide more ammunition for sackings, disqualifications and imprisonments by regime officials
2) To attempt to counter the increasing criticism of Khamenei.
3) Perhaps most significantly, to try and stop the haemorrhage of support for Khamenei within the regime’s conservative/principalist camps.

Once the fatwa was issued, it was probably met with a torrent of criticism not just from people outside of the regime, but by regime insiders and high ranking clerics. The criticism probably not only included the fatwa itself but the claimed authority of Khamenei to issue fatwas in the first place.

That may have been the reason for the fatwa being pulled from sites, but once it was, it was interpreted as a quick retreat by Khamenei. That probably led to his advisors thinking that this was even worse than the criticism of the fatwa, because it would be seen as the Supreme Leader's acceptance that the criticism was correct.

This probably led to the re-appearance of the fatwa but this time his office seems to be trying to come out fighting. If so, I must say it is a feeble attempt at a strong stand and a fight.

Conclusion

To my knowledege, this is the first time that Khamenei’s office has been forced to issue a statement about an issue over which the Supreme Leader has been criticised. Is this a sign that even the Supreme Leader’s office now believes it needs to respond to public pressure and criticism?

Note that the original fatwa says that the principle of veiayat-e-faqih (clerical supremacy) is a branch of the rule of the Prophet and Shia Imams. Now, however, the statement says that the fatwa covers only “state orders”. This may be a retreat, as the original aim of the fatwa was to assert that the Supreme Leader's verdict is final in all circumstances.
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