Iran after the Elections: Confession, Accusation and Warning from Israel

The Latest from Iran (18 June): From Green to “A Sea of Black”

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After  the Guardian Council announced its decision to review the vote in the Iranian Presidential election, a confession, an accusation and a warning came from Israel on Tuesday.

A Confession:

Mossad chief Meir Dagan said that Israel would in fact have an easier time explaining the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons to the world when the country is led by a hard-line fanatic president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad than if Mir Hossein Mousavi, who is seen as a moderate, would win the election. He added: "We mustn't forget Mousavi is the one who started the nuclear program."

Dagan's statement was an inadvertent reminder of how much Osama bin Laden wanted George W. Bush instead of John Kerry to win the  2004 election. In his videotape, bin Laden said: "We had no difficulty in dealing with Bush and his administration because they resemble the regimes in our countries, half of which are ruled by the military and the other half by the sons of kings. . . . They have a lot of pride, arrogance, greed and thievery.”

Just as al-Qaeda tries to recruit men and obtain arms on the grounds of a "legitimate struggle’" supporting local Afghans, Arabs and Pakistanis, Mr. Dagan’s statement tries to maintain the stability of fear --- better your enemy who is in power than a challenger who might not be quite so menacing.

An Accusation:

According to the Jerusalem Post, Hamas members are helping Iranian officials crush supporters of opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi. The assertion is based on the unverified claims of two protestors. Indeed, in almost 2000 words, "Hamas" is only mentioned three times. The real target of the piece is the Iranian Government.

A Warning:

Meir Dagan stated that Iran would have a nuclear bomb ready for use by 2014. There is no evidence to counter the current US intelligence assessment that it has obtained no evidence Iran has resumed its nuclear weapons programme, suspended in 2003, and it takes no account of the current US strategy of "engagement" with Tehran. It does, however, maintain the notion of the "existential threat" of Iran.

Iran: An Alternative View of the Election and Demonstrations

Shirvin Zeinalzadeh, who writes for Enduring America on Iranian politics and foreign policy, offers this perspective on the current situation in Iran:

The elections result in Iran have sparked widespread demonstrations and concern in Iran as well as abroad that the outcome was declared too quickly, and there have been allegations of vote-rigging or cheating on the numbers to ensure victory for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This has upset the supporters of challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi, whom have taken to the streets in a widely-publicized show of discontent.

The majority of the demonstrators are young Iranians in the cities of Iran, all wearing the signature green wristbands and armbands of their candidate, Mousavi, and all chanting the clichéd rhymes of "death to the dictator" and "where’s my vote?". In the meaStime, the calls of the Supreme Leader and Guardian Council, as well as Mr. Mousavi, are to remain calm and follow the legal routes for an appeal against this outcome.

Yesterday, simultaneous demonstrations in Tehran of supporters of Mousavi and an equally large gathering for Ahmadinejad took place on Vali-e Asr Avenue. After reports of seven deaths on Monday,the atmosphere will be even more tense in forthcoming days, with the Guardian Council agreeing to recount votes in the disputed areas of the election.

However, some in the world have already begun to congratulate President Ahmadinejad on his re-election, with the Russian authorities pleased that the President is attending the Shanghai Co-Operation Organisation meeting: "We welcome the fact that elections took place, we welcome the new president on Russian soil and see it as symbolic that he made his first visit to Russia." As President Ahmadinejad continues his official duties, he is showing the Iranian people that it is business as usual and that the dust must settle as soon as possible for Iranians to concentrate on the more important issue of reiterating and strengthening ties with other states.

The fact that there will be a re-count in certain areas still does not seem to please Mr. Mousavi, who wishes the entire election result to be annulled, but the question he must ask himself is, "What image will this reaction portray to the outside world?" The fact that the sheer scale of President Ahmadinejad’s victory was so convincing suggests that a recount will not change the fact that the election has already been won.

The strength of Ahmadinejad has been forgotten over the last few days as we see the almost one-sided views of the Moussavi supporters walking the streets of Tehran. The huge rural population, as well as the working class populace is unnoticed; 100,000 demonstrators become the representatives of Iran's 70 million people.

The situation is difficult to control, but must be understood. Those who wish to demonstrate and air their views are more than welcome to do so. However, when it comes to destroying public buildings and services, as well as violent damage, then the security forces are forced to react, as they would in any country, and put an end to violent opportunistic troublemakers, separating them from the largely legitimate and peaceful supporters of Mousavi. The key fact that Iran has to now accept, as well as the international arena watching events unfold is that there is a large support for President Ahmadinejad, both in Iran and the rest of the world in the form of other sovereign governments who accept the results, and life must now go on.

Every opportunity will be now available for the West to begin talks with Iran regarding commerce, regional security, foreign policy, and nuclear issues; however ,the world must begin (once the re-count has been announced) to accept the outcome and build for peace in the Middle East and make concrete ties with Tehran, allowing diplomacy to be the vital link between Iran and the world.

Should the re-count confirm the inevitable and Mr. Mousavi accept the outcome, as well as his supporters, then he should begin to set an example to the world, as was seen with John Kerry and Al Gore when they faced defeat in US elections, to begin to work positively not for himself but for Iran. His supporters must embrace this as an opportunity to use the next four years to promote Iranian interests abroad and, should they wish, begin to create a solid campaign for the next elections.

In the meantime, it is up to both sets of supporters to remain calm, to respect the majority in Iran who have voted and who have remained away from the demonstrations.