Iran and Britain: Diplomatic Breakdown?

The Latest from Iran (24 June): Peering Through the Clouds

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Shirvin Zeinalzadeh, a regular contributor to Enduring America, assesses the significance of yesterday's news of tit-for-tat expulsions of Iranian and British diplomats:

In an eye-for-an-eye exchange on 23 June, Iran and Britain each cordially "invited" two diplomats to leave their post amidst accusations that they had exceeded their normal duties. Since it is remarkably rare for diplomats to be expelled, this is a powerful statement, marking the first stage of diplomatic breakdown between London and Tehran.

In the recent, past, Britain and Russia went through a similar situation when certain officers were expelled from the British Council in St. Petersburg. In return the Russian staff were sent home from the UK. Relations between London and Moscow have yet to recover fully.

The same may now occur between Iran and the UK. In diplomatic terms, each side balances on a knife-edge over their next steps, while the strongest message broadcast is that Iran will not tolerate interference in its internal affairs.

Both the UK and Iran have important diplomatic missions in the other's country. Britain has a large commercial and educational department in Iran, as well as a large number of Iranian tourists and students applying for entry clearance into the UK. The Iranian Embassy in the UK also has an important mission of consular services as well as commercial interests.

Many people in the UK will now be concerned about ties between Iran and the UK in terms of mutual visits, study, tourism and trade, not forgetting that many people travel to Iran for business as well as pleasure, and vice versa. The breaking of these vital yet delicate official links is a long-term concern. Meanwhile, as Iran officially states that the Presidential election results stand, the diplomatic tensions raise the question of whether Tehran can put itself forward as a force for peace in the Middle East and Central Asia, contributing to regional and international security as well as counter-narcotic and counter-proliferation efforts.

Diplomatic rows are common. The main goal of diplomacy is fundamentally selfish, as each side is always "arguing the case for its state". However, the tensions are usually contained within an understanding of how to conduct and maintain relations. This is now challenged by yesterday's development: the act of sitting down and talking or even being in the same room - far from minor successes --- may now be lost.

To be continued as events unfold....

Iran: An Alternative View of the Election and Demonstrations

Shirvin Zeinalzadeh, who writes for Enduring America on Iranian politics and foreign policy, offers this perspective on the current situation in Iran:

The elections result in Iran have sparked widespread demonstrations and concern in Iran as well as abroad that the outcome was declared too quickly, and there have been allegations of vote-rigging or cheating on the numbers to ensure victory for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This has upset the supporters of challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi, whom have taken to the streets in a widely-publicized show of discontent.

The majority of the demonstrators are young Iranians in the cities of Iran, all wearing the signature green wristbands and armbands of their candidate, Mousavi, and all chanting the clichéd rhymes of "death to the dictator" and "where’s my vote?". In the meaStime, the calls of the Supreme Leader and Guardian Council, as well as Mr. Mousavi, are to remain calm and follow the legal routes for an appeal against this outcome.

Yesterday, simultaneous demonstrations in Tehran of supporters of Mousavi and an equally large gathering for Ahmadinejad took place on Vali-e Asr Avenue. After reports of seven deaths on Monday,the atmosphere will be even more tense in forthcoming days, with the Guardian Council agreeing to recount votes in the disputed areas of the election.

However, some in the world have already begun to congratulate President Ahmadinejad on his re-election, with the Russian authorities pleased that the President is attending the Shanghai Co-Operation Organisation meeting: "We welcome the fact that elections took place, we welcome the new president on Russian soil and see it as symbolic that he made his first visit to Russia." As President Ahmadinejad continues his official duties, he is showing the Iranian people that it is business as usual and that the dust must settle as soon as possible for Iranians to concentrate on the more important issue of reiterating and strengthening ties with other states.

The fact that there will be a re-count in certain areas still does not seem to please Mr. Mousavi, who wishes the entire election result to be annulled, but the question he must ask himself is, "What image will this reaction portray to the outside world?" The fact that the sheer scale of President Ahmadinejad’s victory was so convincing suggests that a recount will not change the fact that the election has already been won.

The strength of Ahmadinejad has been forgotten over the last few days as we see the almost one-sided views of the Moussavi supporters walking the streets of Tehran. The huge rural population, as well as the working class populace is unnoticed; 100,000 demonstrators become the representatives of Iran's 70 million people.

The situation is difficult to control, but must be understood. Those who wish to demonstrate and air their views are more than welcome to do so. However, when it comes to destroying public buildings and services, as well as violent damage, then the security forces are forced to react, as they would in any country, and put an end to violent opportunistic troublemakers, separating them from the largely legitimate and peaceful supporters of Mousavi. The key fact that Iran has to now accept, as well as the international arena watching events unfold is that there is a large support for President Ahmadinejad, both in Iran and the rest of the world in the form of other sovereign governments who accept the results, and life must now go on.

Every opportunity will be now available for the West to begin talks with Iran regarding commerce, regional security, foreign policy, and nuclear issues; however ,the world must begin (once the re-count has been announced) to accept the outcome and build for peace in the Middle East and make concrete ties with Tehran, allowing diplomacy to be the vital link between Iran and the world.

Should the re-count confirm the inevitable and Mr. Mousavi accept the outcome, as well as his supporters, then he should begin to set an example to the world, as was seen with John Kerry and Al Gore when they faced defeat in US elections, to begin to work positively not for himself but for Iran. His supporters must embrace this as an opportunity to use the next four years to promote Iranian interests abroad and, should they wish, begin to create a solid campaign for the next elections.

In the meantime, it is up to both sets of supporters to remain calm, to respect the majority in Iran who have voted and who have remained away from the demonstrations.

Iran's Elections: Shirvin Zeinalzadeh on Al Jazeera

Shirvin Zeinalzadeh, who has been writing for Enduring America on Iranian politics and foreign policy, appeared on Al Jazeera's Inside Story on Sunday to discuss the developing situation in Iran with Professor Sohrab Behdad:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzawnLtnZ1s[/youtube]

Iran's Election: "Ahmadinejad Victory!"

Shirvin Zeinalzadeh, interviewing Iranian voters in London, offers his viewpoint on the Iranian election:

The Interior Ministry of the Islamic Republic of Iran has just officially announced that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is to serve a second term. This news has come as a shock to some, but no surprise to others as he seals an overwhelming landslide victory.

The celebrations and tension will of course continue into the night and for the rest of the week as Mir Hussein Moussavi declares false results and unfair issues within the voting booths, however, the sheer difference in the vote percentage, and support for Ahmadinejad has shown that once again Iran’s high voting turnout has stunned the West with its ever growing strength and belief in the Islamic Republic.

I was fortunate enough to visit two polling stations in London, one in the Consulate Section of the Iranian Embassy, and the other in the Islamic Republic of Iran School, also in London.

As I witnessed the many protestors and press outside the consulate section, the support was clearly balanced between the two main candidates, (although it is worth a mention I could not find a single voter who claimed to be voting for the other two candidates). The school had a very different electoral populous however. Away from the media glitz, and protestors who threw paint over an official, the school was surprisingly just as busy, and from my personal view and self conducted exit poll, Ahmadinejad clearly took the majority of votes.

It really comes as no surprise that his victory was so big. Many fail to realise the supporters of Moussavi were the young elite rich of Northern Tehran, who already possess dual nationality to Western countries, and are merely trying to adapt their Western life styles to suit them in a selfish was in Tehran. (By selfish I mean allowing them more freedom to behave in the way that they enjoy). But one must not forget that Iran is not solely made up of this 1% ultra rich North Tehran populous, and Ahmadinejad’s supporters can be found in the majority of rural towns, countryside and cities, as well as the remaining massive population of Tehran.

The dust will soon settle both in Iran and the West, once this happens, we will begin to see the consequences of this election.

I will be looking closely at the reaction of Barack Obama, will he be returning the letter of congratulations Ahmadinejad sent, and will this send a message of finally cracking on with the bi-lateral diplomacy needed between the two states, safe in the knowledge that the terms have now be set, and that there are four solid years for the two leaders to find mutual interests.

Or will this lead to the more probable result of Ahmadinejad gaining more confidence in his second tenure as President of the Islamic Republic, leading to more national achievements and more defiance of ‘enemies’ in Iran’s next four years of foreign policy.

Recent EU and council elections in the UK showed a 30% turnout, Iran’s Presidential election was over 80%, therefore this strong voice is truly the opinion of the majority, which is more than can be said in the precedent case. There is no doubt that the scale and importance of the elections were not in the same league, but this kind of turnout is fairly common in Iran, and should be congratulated.

My final point brings me back to the Iranian School, this small and tucked away polling station seemed to have given a good indication of the election results. As a teacher there myself, I have followed this election closely with my students and their parents, and it has been a long accepted notion that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was going to serve his second term as President of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Now is the time to reach out to Iran and use this occasion to build up relations with the continuing government of Ahmadinejad, and to work on bi-lateral relations, regional security and more importantly the support and trust that Iran and the West need to build with each other to develop the nation into a serious contributor of peace and example setting in the region and international arena.