The Latest from Iran (5 June): Is That All There Is?

1945 GMT: The Follow-Up to Friday. Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a statement condemning the treatment of Seyed Hassan Khomeini during his speech yesterday.

1915 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An appeals court has approved a five-year prison sentence for Rajabali (Babak) Dashab. Dashab, arrested during the Ashura protests on 27 December, had been given a six term.

1715 GMT: Re-packaging the Supreme Leader. An interesting twist in Khabar Online's coverage of the Khamenei speech: rather than note his threats against the opposition, the website says he emphasised that "even enemies and dissidents have to be treated with justice and piety".

NEW Iran Special: The Regime Disappoints, So It’s Over to the Opposition
NEW Iran Document: Detained Filmmaker Nourizad Writes the Supreme Leader
Latest Iran Video: Pro-Regime Crowd Shouts Down Khomeini Grandson (4 June)
Iran Snap Analysis: The Meaning of Today’s Khamenei-Ahmadinejad Show
The Latest from Iran (4 June): Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, & A Showdown?

1545 GMT: Beating the Oil Squeeze? Press TV reports that Iran, now accepting the withdrawal of Royal Dutch Shell and Spain's Repsol from Phases 13 and 14 of the South Pars oil and gas field as definiite, is giving the project to the Iranian Khatam-ol-Osea Consortium for $5 billion.


1530 GMT: Jamming Neda. Voice of America reports that Iranian authorities jammed a documentary, For Neda, about Neda Agha-Soltan, who was killed during last year's post-election demonstrations.

The documentary, produced by Home Box Office in the US, was shown on Wednesday. It is due for re-broadcast on 12 June, the anniversary of the Presidential election, and 20 June, the anniversary of Neda's death, and it is also available on the Internet.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F48SinuEHIk[/youtube]

1515 GMT: More Support for Hassan Khomeini. In a letter to Seyed Hassan Khomeini, Ayatollah Bayat Zanjani has condemned Friday's disruption of Khomeini's speech as a systematic attack planned by extremists “to take revenge from Imam (Khomeini,Hassan's grandfather) and his followers".

1500 GMT: We reported yesterday that human rights activist Saba Vasefi had escaped arrest when she was away during a security forces' raid on her home.

The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran now reports, from a "reliable source", that Vasefi was hit by a motorcycle on Tuesday when she was in Shahryar, near Tehran, to check on a death penalty case. Vasefi struck her head on the road and is now in a coma.

1250 GMT: Reacting to Friday. The prominent conservative member of Parliament Ali Motahari has said that the disruption of Seyed Hassan Khomeini’s speech was "very sad" and "against freedom of speech that is one of the principles of Islamic Revolution".

Significantly, Motahari accused President Ahmadinejad of organising the sabotage of Khomeini's appearance.

Motahari said, "Ahmadinejad is like a spoilt child in a family where the more he annoys others, the more he is appreciated by the parents. If judiciary had put [Mehdi] Karroubi, [Mir Hossein] Mousavi, and Ahmadinejad all on trial, this would not have happened."

The Islamic Society of Tehran University has requested urgent action to be taken against those "small groups" who interrupted Hassan Khomeini, claiming the disruption was because of the hatred that the hardliners have for Imam Khomeini.

1245 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A story that slipped by us earlier this week....

Parveneh Osanloo, the wife of labour activist Mansour Osanloo, has said that her husband has been put in solitary confinement inside the Revolutionary Guard's Ward on new charges of “relations with state opposition groups”.

1240 GMT: Yesterday's Arrests. Tehran Police Chief Hossein Sajedinia has said 19 people were arrested during the commemorations of the death of Ayatollah Khomeini.

0715 GMT: Forgive the blatant "Western" cultural reference in the title of the post, but this was my immediate thought after watching the regime's setpiece yesterday for the commemoration of Ayatollah Khomeini's death. We have an analysis of the day, from the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei speeches to the unexpected "highlight" with the shout-down of Khomeini's grandson, in a separate entry.

In other news on an anti-climactic slow day (so far)....

Dastgheib's Support for Mousavi

The English translation of Ayatollah Dashgheib's letter to Mir Hossein Mousavi has been published:

Greetings,

I saw your statement which was published on Ordibehesht 23, 1389 (13 May 2010) and as I was certain of your religiousness, I am certain now too and I see you as someone with the love for Islam, Quran, and the Prophet’s and Holy Imam’s way of life, with good Islamic manner, devoted to Iran’s Islamic society, the establishment and the Islamic Republic of Iran, possessing honesty and purity, far from lies, betrayals and deceptions, and free from the love for earthly possessions and being in power.

What you stated about various issues are in accordance with the religious teachings and in compliance with the Constitution and the slogan of “independence, freedom and the Islamic Republic”. I, as a citizen, consider you useful and rather necessary for the continuation of the Islamic Revolution that was carried out by the people and the leadership of Imam Khomeini.

I am amazed by the people who considered themselves just but call your remarks, which are supported by reasons, deviation from the establishment and –-- may God have mercy on us –-- in confrontation with the establishment, and –-- may God have more mercy on us –-- accuse you unjustly, hideously and irrationally. These are disasters for you and us, and we should say, “We are all from God and we will return to him” about them.

Political Prisoner Watch

Women's rights activist Mahboubeh Abbasgholizadeh has been sentenced to 2 1/2 years in jail and 30 lashes for "acts against national security". Abbasgholizadeh was arrested on 21 December on her way to the funeral of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.

Iran Document: Detained Filmmaker Nourizad Writes the Supreme Leader

Last week filmmaker and journalist Mohammad Nourizad was jailed for 3 1/2 years, in part because of four letters had written to the Supreme Leader. This week he wrote a fifth letter to Ayatollah Khamenei. Translation by Pedestrian:

They take me every which way, while I am blindfolded. When I enter the room, I see a 40-something year old man sitting across a long table. He shows me the other end of the table and I sit down. After the usual greetings …

He says: Mr. Nourizad, I really didn’t want to see you here. Why do you have to be here?

I say: This is my home. I believe I’m a landlord here, not a lunatic felon who is here to be disciplined and punished.



He says: You’re causing quite a mess these days. The guard has written me and has complained that you’ve punched him and ripped his shirt!

I say: the difference between that guard and I is that his letter reaches you in two days, but a letter I wrote to the prosecutor general more than a month ago, has yet to reach him.

The man who is sitting opposite me raises his amputated arm and tries to scratch his face. This is when I know that the person sitting opposite me, who seems to have the nerves of steel, is no one other than Tehran’s Prosecutor General, Jafari Dowlat Abadi. I’d heard before that the prosecutor general had lost one of his arms up to his wrist, in the war.

I say: you must be Mr. Jafari.

He says: yes.

I say: they took me out of my prison cell for a walk and then raided my cell while I was gone, taking my personal belongings.

He goes through some notes he has in front of him. Then he says: why must you write “we are alive and so we shall live” on your t-shirt?

I say: what part of our intelligence and security services will this simple sentence of mine affect?

He says: this reminds me of Descartes who said: “I protest therefore I am!”

I say: your friends took two of my writings from my personal belongings. You have my permission to read them and get them to those they were intended for. The first is called "The Secret of the Donkey’s 'Hee-Haw'” and the second piece is called "A Letter to Members of Parliament". I don’t care much about the first piece which is directed at the Intelligence Ministry, but give my second letter to Mr. [Ali] Larijani, the head of parliament, so he can distribute it and read it for other MPs.

He says: I have nothing to do with Parliament. But why don’t you write a letter to the father [Khamenei]? If you write it, we will get it to the father really fast, through Mr. [Sadegh] Larijani of the judiciary. If you ask for a pardon in the letter, it will be even better.

I say: I will not ask for a pardon, because I believe I have done nothing wrong. The problem with my letters is that nobody sees that I write them out of concern. Like today, it’s been three days now that I’ve been on a hunger strike, why? Because I can’t find any legal authority who actually respects the law.

He laughs. The word “hunger strike” makes him laugh.

He says sincerely: no, Mr. Nourizad, do not go on a hunger strike.

I say: They’ve transferred me from ward 240, from a prison cell with a bath and a toilet, to ward 209. A cell which has no facilities, in scalding heat. I insist that I want to see the guardian of the ward, but they pay no attention. When I hit on the cell door out of protest, the door opens, the guard gets violent, he calls on others and the five of them pick me up from the ground and throw me back hard. My head gives a thud sound. My shoulders are injured. My eyesight is worse and I have a terrible headache.

I say: and this is how headaches turn into nausea.

He accepts my words, but insists that I stop my strike.

I say: Mr. Jafari, I am determined to continue my hunger strike. It’s been three days now and I had to drag myself here with much difficulty. I have not even had a cup of water or sugar. They’ve taken x-rays of my shoulders at the prison. There might not be anything in the x-rays, but I’m on this strike because of the lawlessness of your friends. You will drag my body out of the prison cell in a few days.

He says: it’s not right for you to kill yourself with your own two hands.

I say: why did Imam Hussein [3rd Shia Imam, who according to Shi'a history, was murdered by the tyrant caliphate Yazid] do it then?

He says: Because he was confronting Yazid.

I say: Wherever there is lawlessness, there is a Yazid. Like our legal system which I’m sure has nothing to do with Islam. You take “P” and send him to prison, but you leave free all those he has exposed. You arrest Shahram Jazayeri [an Iranian businessman jailed for corruption], and give [someone] who has become a multi-millionaire through laundering government funds, a ministerial position.

I say: This system is so dysfunctional and decrepit that someone like XXX is easily used by others and, through his driver and mother, commits the most atrocious injustices.

He says: this very clever men have given 200 Million Tomans [about $200,000] to his mosque.

I say: I’ve heard too. But I’ve also heard that they’ve given a villa to his driver, and they’ve asked him to sign many things. As a prosecutor general, you have no courage to protest? Why? Because you are too needy of this high table and your high rank.

He says: that’s not true. I’m just a war veteran.

I say: so what? High ranks are coveted by everyone, war veteran or not. Why don’t you protest? This system is rife with incompetent, unjust judges.

He says: It is, but not around me.

I say: Why don’t you resign?

He says: I remain here so I might be able to do some good.

I say: everyone tries to justify their own wrong deeds using that excuse.

I say: most of our system is stained with bribery and smuggling. Most disregard the law. But you’ve thrown me in jail for telling the truth, and you’ve allowed ignorant interrogators to beat me and threaten my family. But those who are misusing government funds are free. And you don’t even have the courage to arrest them.

I say: justice in our legal system is only a big joke. I’m in prison for criticizing this justice which has fallen ill. And those who are responsible for the illness of our legal, financial and security systems are free and are even given support.

The prosecutor general listens to my words calmly, and reiterates his request that I write a letter to the leader.

I say: I will write, but only the way I want to.

He says: just write.

They bring me a pen and paper, and while I am struggling after 3 days of a hunger strike, I write:

“If someone visits a holy city and sees that city being overpowered by the stench of garbage, do they have no right to complain? Must they arrest him and throw him in prison for complaining? This is what has happened to me. I don’t see this much ugliness befitting of the revolution. A revolution which took all that effort. In prison, I have been subject to the brutal beating of ignorant interrogators. Interrogators who use the most vile ways to force prisoners to confess. Interrogators who use the dirtiest ways, and the most despicable language. I really wish that I could come to you and tell you of the second Kahrizak [a linking of Evin Prison to the closed Kahrizak Prison, where post-election detainees were abused and killed] and to tell you of the despicable behavior shown by those who claim to be the soldiers of Islam …”

I do not fold the letter, and I give it to the prosecutor. In a separate letter I write to him: “"When my verdict hasn’t been announced yet, why am I being kept in a maximum security prison?” And I ask him to be transferred to the general ward.

Now that I write this, I am in the general ward. In section 7, hall 5.

Mohammad Nourizad

The Latest from Iran (4 June): Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, & A Showdown?

2010 GMT: Picture of the Day? Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan and former President Hashemi Rafsanjani during the speech of the Supreme Leader:

NEW Iran Snap Analysis: The Meaning of Today’s Khamenei-Ahmadinejad Show
Iran Document: Majid Tavakoli “The Will of My Nation Led to Victory”
The Latest from Iran (3 June): Karroubi Video Message

2000 GMT: Interrogation Watch. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters reports that security forces went to the home of human rights activist Saba Vasefi to arrest her, but she was not away. There is no information on her current situation and whereabouts.


Vasefi, a university instructor, researcher, human rights activist, and women’s rights activist, reportedly was looking into the case of a person sentenced to death but has not returned.

1704 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi's latest statement continues to resonate, with his declaration that "they have ruined the republic side of the regime in the name of Islam".

Karroubi's website Saham News also clarifies the story, spread by Fars News, that the cleric was assaulted on Thursday. An incident did occur at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery The website adds that Karroubi was able to reach the Haram where --- significantly in light of today's events --- he was received by Hassan Khomeini.

1700 GMT: Absentees. No reformists, including Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami --- attended the ceremony today.

1645 GMT: The Big Story from Today --- Hassan Khomeini. It looks like the speech of President Ahmadinejad, and even that of the Supreme Leader, have been overshadowed by the sabotaging of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson.

The story is all over the Iranian web. The pro-regime Raja News is spreading the slogan, "Imam Khomeini's real nephew is Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah [the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon]". The story is now spreading that Raja disseminated this before the ceremony today and encouraged the heckling of Hassan Khomeini.

It is also significant that Hassan Khomeini halted his speech after the chants of "Death to Mousavi" started, stating, "Please refrain from expressing such sentiments until the Leader takes the podium." During the Supreme Leader's speech, both he and Hashemi Rafsanjani kept their heads buried deep in their chests.

1520 GMT: Clerical Support. Ayatollah Dastgheib has written to Mir Hossein Mousavi, expressing his support for Mousavi's "sincerity and his avoidance of betrayal, lies, and hypocrisy".

1455 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Shabnam Madadzadeh, vice president of the student organisation Daftar Tahkim Vahdat, and her brother Farzad have both been sentenced to five years in prison.

1450 GMT: Relaxing the Oil Squeeze? International Oil Daily claims that Royal Dutch Shell has resumed shipments to Iran, with three 30,000-ton deliveries of gasoline/petrol last month at the port of Bandar Abbas.

1445 GMT: Parliament v. President. Peyke Iran claims that Parliament's Article 90 Commission has said that it is not convinced of Ahmadinejad's defence of his Government's implementation of policies.

1440 GMT: Reading Larijani. And what of this what you will from Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, explaining at a memorial service, "Today we see a backwardness which has nothing to do with the ideas of the Imam [Khomeini]."

1425 GMT: Reading Today. We've posted a snap analysis of the significance of today's speeches.

Khabar Online posts an article on the sabotage of Hassan Khomeini's speech. The website also claims that the Supreme Leader consoled Khomeini by kissing him on the forehead.

The reformist Green Voice of Freedom also covers the incident, emphasising Khomeini's declaration that those shouting down his words were "a minority".

0935 GMT: The Bad West. Khamenei is still criticising the West and Israel, claiming that the US and others try to restrict Iran's access to nuclear energy (but saying little more), as the crowds chants Death to the US and Death to Israel.

And that's about it as the Supreme Leader moves to a closing prayer and Press TV cuts its coverage.

0925 GMT: The Israel Rap. After leading the audience in prayer, the Supreme Leader uses the attack on the Freedom Flotilla as proof of Israel "murdering innocents" as Western "hypocrites and liars" observe and keep silent over the "barbaric and savage" Zionists.

0920 GMT: Back to the Challenge. "They started this chaos. They tried their efforts. They supported those rioters. The UK also supported them, Western powers [supported them]. MKO ["terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq] and all the opponents supported them. What was the result?....Our great people last year showed such a great power that dazzled the whole world."

0916 GMT: Audience Watch. They may be rivals for power, but Ahmadinejad is sitting next to Sadegh and Ali Larijani. Ahmadinejad ally Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi is three seats from Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0912 GMT: Now I Will Shake My Fist. The Supreme Leader starts his attack on opposition figures by saying that individuals should not be judged on their past offices but on their present positions, adding that the first Imam, Imam Ali, fought former allies when they strayed.

How serious could this get? Khamenei notes that some people who accompanied Ayatollah Khomeini on his return to Iran in 1979 were later executed because they left the proper path. His message to opponents: "the yardstick for passing judgement is your present situation if, God forbid, Satan pushes [you] the wrong way".

0910 GMT: Still going on about Israel and Palestine, with an Iranian position "based on logic and not sloganeering".

0905 GMT: The Global Dimension. Instead of returning to the internal battle, the Supreme Leader uses his invocation of Khomeini and democracy to claim that Iran --- without interfering in the affairs of other countries --- is setting a "glorious example" to the rest of the world.

He quickly moves, however, from glory to darker language, setting up his anti-Israel section by invoking Ayatollah Khomeini's description of Israel as a "cancerous tumour".

0900 GMT: Legitimacy. Khamenei points to elections in the early days of the Islamic Republic: "In no other revolution do you see a referendum less than two months after victory." And, in the toughest times during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, the elections were never postponed.

0850 GMT: Attack Resumed. Another not-so-veiled reference by Khamenei to political opponents as "mercenaries" of foreign, hostile powers. He speaks of their stances on Qods Day (September) and Ashura (27 December) --- both occasions of large opposition demonstrations --- and says that "we cannot remain silent" and "call ourselves followers of the Imam".

0830 GMT: The First Swipe. Khameini makes his first analogy with the contemporary situation, criticising those who were followers of Ayatollah Khomeini but "went their own way" and "lost their goals....After years, they stand against those ideals."

Mir Hossein Mousavi just happened to be Prime Minister during the last years of Ayatollah Khomeini's life.

(Interesting side note: the Supreme Leader reads and interprets sections of Khomeini's will but never notes his injunction against the involvement of the military in politics.)

0825 GMT: Disrespecting Khomeini. A quick flashback to the episode between the Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader speeches: the section of the crowd who sabotaged the speech of the Imam's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, were reportedly chanting, "Death to Mousavi". We've posted the video.

0820 GMT: Audience Check. In contrast to the lack of VIPs who showed up for President Ahmadinejad, everyone who is anyone is here for Khamenei. The three Larijani brothers have now appeared, as has former President Rafsanjani.

0815 GMT: The Supreme Leader begins with a lengthy section lauding the steadfastness and piety of Ayatollah Khomeini.

0800 GMT: Ayatollah Khamenei has just arrived on the stage. We have an urgent commitment this morning so we will be blogging the Supreme Leader's address "as live" in about three hours.

0800 GMT: Extraordinary development --- a section of the crowd is yelling to prevent Hassan Khomeini from speaking. He is now referring to this openly, asking "forgiveness for all of us". (Press TV makes no reference to the disruption.)

0752 GMT: A Surprise Appearance. The grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, is now speaking. That's a bit unexpected: Hassan Khomeini has been critical of the Ahmadinejad Government and has been under sustained pressure to curb his activities.

He is greeted enthusiastically --- more enthusiastically than Ahmadinejad --- and has to pause repeatedly for the crowd to quiet before he can speak.

(Or, alternatively, is the loud noise meant to block Hassan Khomeini's speech?)

0750 GMT: Press TV does not even wait for the end of Ahmadinejad's speech before cutting away.

0745 GMT: Is It Empty Behind Ahmadinejad's Back?

All in all, a pretty uneventful speech. There was the standard Ahmadinejad rhetoric denouncing "the West" and Israel (although no direct reference to Iran's nuclear programme), and one passage went after his opponents, promising that the Iranian nation --- which backed him in the 2009 election --- would "annihilate" them.

But it was pretty tame compared to what we anticipated. An EA correspondent goes farther, "Ahmadinejad has definitely run out of ideas. His speech is repetitive and contains frankly nothing worth mentioning."

Indeed, the takeaway point so far this morning is not Ahmadinejad's speech but those who were not there: apart from Revolutionary Guard commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, everyone must have been stuck in traffic. No Larijani brothers, no Rafsanjani, and no prominent "conservative" politicians.

0740 GMT: Ahmadinejad concludes by invoking Khomeini: "The Iranian nation will follow down the Imam's path." And he has a final swipe at "arrogant powers", saying, "We are not afraid of their fabricated power."

0730 GMT: The President is now using the Freedom Flotilla incident to invoke "weak" and "crazy" Israel and the US "under the influence of the criminal Zionists".

Ahmadinejad warns that, if Washington does not stop its support of Israel, it will be "the end of President Obama" and "the end of the US". Any "new aggressive move" will mean the "death of the Zionist regime".

0727 GMT: Ahmadinejad is now back to the narrative of Ayatollah Khomeini's triumph over the "arrogant powers", culminating in Iran's "final victory". Those who opposed Iran can now only "surrender to the righteous".

Highest-ranking VIP seen so far? Atomic energy chief Ali Akhbar Salehi.

An EA correspondent notes, "As a Persian saying would put it, 'It's empty behind his back.'"

0717 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad is going big-time against the "hypocrites" of the "Western powers" who challenged Ayatollah Khomeini.

And now he's moving to the "individuals" standing with those powers: "Those who are in league with enemeis cannot claim to follow Imam" --- "If they go awry...they will be removed from the scene by the people....Anyone who stands against this Revolution will be annihilated."

0715 GMT: Now Ahmadinejad goes after the opposition, those "selfish people" who tried to deny him the legitimacy of the election. He invokes Khomeini as referring to the "will of the people" and standing up to "arrogant powers".

0710 GMT: After several uneventful minutes, the President finally makes his play for legitimacy. He proclaims that the election witnessed 40 million Iranians --- 85% of eligible voters --- turning out in a "100% free election" to "set the record of democracy in the whole world".

And almost "25 million" voted for "their servant --- me".

0705 GMT: Nothing special so far in the Ahmadinejad speech. And no sign of major presences in the crowd --- which is muted so far --- although we did spot Tehran University academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi in the VIP section.

0653 GMT: President Ahmadinejad is now addressing the crowd with greetings in Arabic. Press TV has started live coverage.

A large banner under the podium has a quote from Khomeini, always present on this occasion: "America Cannot Do a Damn Thing".

We're watching the crowd to see which VIPs are present.

0650 GMT: Some live shots now from IRINN of the crowd at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine. An EA correspondent estimates "tens of thousands". possibly 100,000, but only the inner courtyard is shown.

0640 GMT: Economy Watch. According to Donya-e Eqtesad, Ahmadinejad advisor Saeed Mortazavi is fretting over the amount of contraband in the Iranian system: "Some 16 billion dollars worth of goods have been smuggled into Iran, while three billion dollars worth have been exported illegally during the last Iranian year."

0630 GMT: Karroubi Strikes. Mehdi Karroubi, who put out a lengthy video message yesterday, has also posted a forthright statement on Saham News:

[The regime officials] speak in a way as if Imam [Khomeini] belongs to them only and others have broken path with the Imam. Whoever objects to fraud in election is accused of being a Mossad or CIA agent. The fate of election is in the hands of Basijis and Sepah [Revolutionary Guards].

I am worried about the Islamic aspect of the regime. They have ruined the republic side of the regime in the name of Islam.

0600 GMT: Getting Priorities Right. Press TV have now elevated the remembrance of Ayatollah Khomeini by Iranians "in their millions" to its top story.

Still only a token reference to the Supreme Leader's speech as Press TV jumps to a statement by Hezbollah's Sheikh Nasrallah linking the Khomeini legacy to the "heroes of the Gaza aid flotilla".

0515 GMT: Trumped by the Flotilla? After all our morning analysis on the possible significance of today's Ahmadinejad/Khamenei speeches, a curious signal from Press TV.

The first 10 minutes of its morning news round-up is devoted not to Tehran Friday Prayers but to the aftermath of the Israeli raid on the Freedom Flotilla.

Only after the steady stream of Iranian and international condemnation of the attack does Press TV turn to the commemoration of the passing of Ayatollah Khomeini. There is the high-profile, and possibly risky, headline of Tehran police's prediction of more than two million at the shrine and on the streets, coming in "50,000 buses", but only a passing reference to the Supreme Leader's speech and none to Ahmadinejad's.

0500 GMT: Here We Go. Maybe.



This morning both President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader will use the 21st anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Khomeini to deliver speeches on the political situation. Speaking from Khomeini's shrine, Ayatollah Khamenei will lead Tehran's Friday Prayers, with Ahmadinejad offering an introduction.

As this is effectively the first regime rally since 22 Bahman (11 February), one public signal will be the size of the crowd for the occasion. There should be no problem filling the shrine --- an EA correspondent writes that it holds about 50,000 to 60,000 people --- but will there be a mass showing on the streets beyond?



That, however, may be the peripheral matter for propaganda; any debate over numbers tends to overlook the little fact that there is no big show of support for the regime between these high-profile occasions set a few months apart.

Instead, the immediate challenge will come in the content of the two speeches. Ahmadinejad showing up as the warm-up act is an important clue: an EA correspondent says an "introduction" of the Supreme Leader on this occasion is unusual. So the President's appearance, given his rhetoric and his need to establish his authority, points to a tough line on the opposition (and, possibly between the lines, to Ahmadinejad's opponents within the Iranian establishment).

But what about the Supreme Leader? EA staff note that he has two "hot" issues to handle: 1) the application for a march on 12 June, the anniversary of the 2009 election, by Mir Hossein Mousasvi and Mehdi Karroubi and 2) the maneouvres over the Tehran declaration on uranium enrichment by Iran, Brazil, and Turkey.

On the nuclear issue, the Supreme Leader has to decide between whether to hold out the prospect of continuing discussion with the "West" over a possible deal or, given the prospect of tougher sanctions, whether to tell Brazil and Turkey that there is no point in negotiating. The latter course of action would be a setback for Ahmadinejad, who still needs the prospect of a bargain on uranium for his political legitimacy, and a victory for the President's rival, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

That's important politics to handle, but still the primary issue for Khamenei is whether he offers any road back for the opposition, say, the line "repent and we will take you back", or whether he draws the line and says, "That's it. We're taking you down."

Does the Supreme Leader, for example, make an open declaration that the Green Movement and other "enemies" will not be allowed to gather on 12 June or does he avoid comment, letting Iran's bureaucracy turn down the Mousavi-Karroubi request?

And --- given the prospect that the opposition will still try to demonstrate --- does Khamenei, more than 11 months after his last Friday Prayer which said there would be no defiance of the election result, warn that this demonstration and its leaders will be crushed?

The Latest from Iran (3 June): Karroubi Video Message

2210 GMT: Made-Up Story of the Day? We close with a supposed "exclusive" (exclusive because no one else is reporting it) from Fars News. The website claims that Mehdi Karroubi was driven from the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini today by a crowd shouting, "Death to the Hypocrite".

Fars' visual support for the story? A picture of Karroubi from last year's Tehran Book Fair.

2115 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi has released a lengthy video message. We've posted the first of six parts below. You can also link to Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, and Part 6.

We are looking urgently for an English translation.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEn4cHR10rM&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

NEW Iran Document: Majid Tavakoli “The Will of My Nation Led to Victory”
Iran Document: Mousavi “Imam Khomeini, Revolution, and the Green Movement” (2 June)
Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad in Ilam “Where’s My Crowd?”
The Latest from Iran (2 June): Where’s My Crowd?

1800 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi says that, following the Supreme Leader's pardon of 81 detainees, a number of prisoners have been released. Still no names of those freed.


1650 GMT: Propaganda Corner. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran claims that Fars News has published a fabricated letter of resignation by Morteza Semyari, the secretary of the Cultural Commission of the student organisation Daftar-Tahkim-Vahdat.

1645 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The sentence of 3 1/2 years in prison and lashes for journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad was confirmed earlier this week. The response of Nourizad, who has been imprisoned in part because of letters to the Supreme Leader?

He has written another letter to Ayatollah Khamenei before the Supreme Leader leads Tehran Friday Prayers this week: “The damage and harm that we (the religious government of Iran) have caused Islam and religious beliefs of the people is beyond the damage and harm throughout history."

1520 GMT: Reports are coming in that Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard met representatives of Iranian women's organisations today.

1515 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. An admission.... As I tried to read the various political contender set up position for the anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's death --- with both the Supreme Leader and Mir Hossein Mousavi "claiming" Khomeini --- I read summaries of a statement by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani but did not post them.

I did not post the original from the Iranian Labor News Agency or the abridgements from outlets like Radio Zamaneh because the language seemed, well vague: "Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, head of Iran’s Assembly of Experts urged those faithful to the Islamic Revolution and Ayatollah Khomeini not to let “the Revolution to fall in the hands of strangers.” Rafsanjani called on the public not to let the Islamic Revolution to be derailed from its “original and true” path because, once deviations in the Islamic Republic occur, “it will be very difficult or impossible to overcome them”.

So has Rafsanjani issued a veiled warning to the Government, cautioned the opposition not to be too strident, or taken a seat on a tall fence? Answers on a postcard or in our comments section....

0900 GMT: Film Corner. Jafar Panahi, the acclaimed film director released last week after more than three months in prison, has said, "Sometimes I feel that the mere thought of writing a film can be a crime here, just the idea that to do so may be penalized. It may even be enough to go to jail....Now I have to make films in my dreams, sometimes in my head."

0855 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. RAHANA claims several students and activists were released last evening.

Khabar Online reports that Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi is meeting families of detainees on a weekly basis, apparently in an effort to get prisoners to repent.

Kodoom updates on detained teachers.

0835 GMT: Economic Battles. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has criticised President Ahmadinejad for not implementating the law on privatisation correctly.

The Supreme Audit Court has presented examples of deviations in oil revenues, with $1 billion missing in 2007.

0830 GMT: A Green IRIB? The pro-Government Raja News, in a surprising admission and/or an attack on possible subversives within Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, declares that Mir Hossein Mousavi was favoured over President Ahmadinejad by employees of IRIB by a 7:1 margin.

0820 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rooz Online reports on detained activists in Iranian Azerbaijan.

0810 GMT: Home Box Office in the US has released a new documentary on the death of Neda Agha-Soltan, "For Neda".

(Documentaries from November 2009 by the BBC and by the US Public Broadcasting Service are available elsewhere on EA.)

0700 GMT: The Supreme Leader''s Latest Move. Dave Siav0shi at Iran News Now posts a sharp assessment of yesterday's announcement of pre-election pardons, "The Shrewd Calculus Behind Khamenei’s Release of 81 Political Prisoners".

The names of those pardoned are still unknown.

0635 GMT: We have finally tracked down an English translation of Sunday's letter from detained student activist Majid Tavakoli, "The Will of My Nation Led to Victory", and posted it in a separate entry.

0610 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kamran Asa, the brother of the slain protester Kianoush Asa, has been re-arrested.

Kamran Asa was first jailed on 16 December and detained for two months.

0550 GMT: One more day before the pace of the politics --- and, possibly, the public contest over the Government and the regime --- quickens.

Tomorrow is the anniversary of the death in 1989 of Ayatollah Khomeini and all sides are staking out their positions. Both the Supreme Leader and the President appear at Friday Prayers, and Mir Hossein Mousavi has released his statement --- posted in a separate entry --- to claim the legacy of Khomeini and Revolution for the opposition.

And where there is political manoeuvring, there are also the steps to limit debate. Rooz Online has a summary of "the third round of mass arrest of journalists and political activists". It notes the detentions of journalists Azam Veisameh and Mahboubeh Khansari and claims that security agents failed in their attempt to arrest several reformist activists and one political prisoner’s wife.

The pro-Government Raja News has claimed that Veisameh and Khansari “communicated with foreign media” and discussed “information about certain issues”.

The Latest from Iran (2 June): Where's My Crowd?

2040 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Ayatollah Khamenei's website says that the Supreme Leader has pardohttp://farsi.khamenei.ir/message-content?id=9499ned 81 opposition supporters.

The website did not identify the prisoners. It said the pardons were made on the occasion of the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad's daughter, Fatemeh.

NEW Iran Document: Mousavi “Imam Khomeini, Revolution, and the Green Movement” (2 June)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad in Ilam “Where’s My Crowd?”
The Latest from Iran (1 June): Latest on Emad Baghi

1615 GMT: Requesting the March. The Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi reports that, complementing the request of Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi,  eight reformist parties and organizations asked for permission to hold a rally on 12 June (22 Khordaad), the anniversary of the Presidential election.


The eight groups (Assembly of Former Members of the Parliament, Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution Organization, Islamic Association of Medical Society of Iran, Association of Women Journalists, ssembly of Alumni of Islamic Iran, Islamic Iran Participation Front, National Will Party, and Assembly of Followers of Imam) asked for a rally moving from Imam Hossein Square to Azadi Square in Tehran at 4 p.m. (1230 GMT).

The authorities in the office of the Governor of Tehran Province refused to accept the letter, saying that they can only give permits for rallies that are held in closed spaces. The Ministry of the Interior has also received a copy of the request.

1340 GMT: We have posted the translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement today on Ayatollah Khomeini, Revolution, and the Green Movement.

1230 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An Iranian activist reports that Mehdi Boutorabi, founder of Persian Blog, and teachers Mahmoud Beheshti Langeroudi & Alireza Hashemi have been released on bail.

0945 GMT: Most Wanted. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran has issued a 36-page report "naming 15 leading officials responsible for carrying out the brutal repression against peaceful protestors and civil society activists".

0825 GMT: Political Prisoner Follow-Up. Yesterday an EA correspondent updated us on prison conditions and the health of detained journalist Emaduddin Baghi, who recently met his family after five months in solitary confinement.

Another EA correspondent adds that Baghi and Amir Aboutalebi, an aide to Mir Hossein Mousavi's advisor Alireza Beheshti, are in the same cell. They have been told that, if they want to be released, they should write a letter of apology to the Supreme leader.

0815 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Zahra Shams, a law student at Mashhad's Ferdowsi University, has been released after almost a month in detention.

0800 GMT: Un-Free Press Update (with a Bit of Football).The sports daily "Goal" has been banned, with another 10 newspapers and 3 magazines warned. (The threatened publications are the newspapers Vatan-e Emrooz, Farhikhtegan, Mardomsalari, Aftab-e Yazd, Jahan-e Eghtesad, Arman-e Ravabet-e Omoumi, Jomhouri Eslami, Jahan-e San'at, Karoon, and Alborz-e Varzeshi and the magazines Behdasht-e Ravan va Jame'e, Rah, and Honar-e Musighi.)

An EA correspondent notes a significant number of journalists from Vatan-e Emrooz and Farhikhtegan have been imprisoned, with others from Jomhouri Eslami and Jahan-e Eghtesad detained.

0745 GMT: Iran Propaganda Special. Fereshteh Ghazi reports on rifts within the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, which is broadcasting a series of "portraits" of political figures from 17 to 26 Khordad (7-16 June). Ghazi claims the series was actually put together by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, and IRIB only does only the editing.

The distortion of the views of Iranian reformist Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, which we have noted in recent days, is apparently only the first installment of this propaganda extravaganza.

0620 GMT: After an evening talking to the Security Studies Group at Oxford University about the Obama Administration's foreign policy, it is back to the Iran front this morning....

Ahmadinejad: "Where's My Crowd?"

We have posted the video of the far-from-significant crowd that attended the President's speech in Ilam Province on Tuesday.

Remembering Kianoush Asa

A far different video from Tehran's Elm-o-Sanat University, where about 400 students remembered their classmate Kianoush Asa, reportedly killed during the 15 June demonstration protesting the outcome of the Presidential election.

HomyLafayette has a close-up report and more videos.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIN3Xfj2nPY&feature=channel[/youtube]

Political Prisoner Watch

The prison sentence of Ph.D. student Mahmoud Alizadeh Tabatabai has been reduced to one year on appeal. Tabatabai was originally given a two-year term.