Iran Special: The Regime Disappoints, So It's Over to the Opposition

The big news from Iran this morning is that there is very little news.

Almost 24 hours ago, President Ahmadinejad was taking the platform at Ayatollah Khomeini's shrine to speak to the audience at Tehran Friday Prayers. Soon after that, the Supreme Leader --- in his first Friday Prayer sermon in more than 11 months --- denounced Israel and the US and threatened the opposition with "annihilation".

Almost 24 hours later and, apart from whipping up the die-hard supporters in the shrine's courtyard, there is little left of the speeches. Press TV is back on the Gaza story --- indeed, most of their coverage of the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei addresses was about Israel-Palestine rather than Iran --- and even Fars has "disappeared" the Friday Prayers from the front page of its website. (It should be noted that the Islamic Republic News Agency continues to elevate the story, with the full text of the Supreme Leader's address heading its page.)



Now for a bit of irony. If there is a legacy from yesterday, it is a Khomeini legacy. However, it's not just the fact that Ahmadinejad and Khamenei were basing their appeals on the commemoration of the 21st anniversary of the death of  Ayatollah Khomeini.

When part of the crowd shouted down Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Ayatollah, I have to wonder how the "common man/woman" in Iran views the incident. After all, the regime based much of its anti-opposition line last autumn on the supposed desecration of Ayatollah Khomeini's picture in Green Movement protests.

So what now when Hassan Khomeini has been publicly humiliated at the occasion for his grandfather? The regime will probably try to "forget" the episode, but the rapidly-circulating video --- with a shocked and saddened Hassan Khomeini pleading with the hecklers, then resigning himself to defeat by "the minority" --- is unlikely to fade away.

And if there is significance in this most visible of incidents, so there is significance in the invisible. Where were the politicians, the officials, the clerics for President Ahmadinejad? State media's standard shot, panning the VIP section to show the faithful, backfired yesterday when it became clear that, with the exception of Revolutionary Guard Mohammad Ali Jafari, there were no regime stars (and, of course, no reformists) to be spotted.

None of this necessarily means "defeat" for the Government, let alone the Supreme Leader. But it does mean that, with the lack of visible "victory" in the sense of public acclamation rather than the cudgel of political, legal, and "security" forces, the space for challenge remains.

So on to 22 Khordaad (12 June), the first anniversary of the election, and over to the opposition. Can any public declaration be made or are we left with the vacuum of a regime that cannot confirm its legitimacy and an opposition that cannot publicly demonstrate its demands?

Turkey Inside Line: Erdogan Roars at Israel, Extends His Hand to Iraqi Kurdistan

The repercussions continue in Turkish politics from Israel's bloody intervention against the Freedom Flotilla. According to the Turkish daily Radikal, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday:

I do not think that Hamas is a terrorist organization. I said the same thing to the United States. I am still of the same opinion. They are Palestinians in resistance, fighting for their own land.

They [Hamas] won the election. You are always talking about democracy. You’ll never let Hamas rule. What kind of democracy is this?

Gaza Flotilla LiveBlog (5 June): Aboard the Rachel Corrie
Turkey Inside Line: Parliament, President, and People Condemn Israel

Hamas was officially hosted in Ankara in 2006 and Erdogan has continuously urged leaders of other states to recognize and give a chance to Hamas as a legitimate political party. He continued yesterday:

I am calling on the whole Turkey, the whole world once more from here, in Konya; The fate of Jerusalem is not different that of Istanbul. The fate of Gaza is not different than that of Ankara. The fate of Ramallah, Nablus, Refah, Cenin and Beytullahim is ever never different than that of Konya. Even if the world keeps silence, we will not!

They [Israelis] saw innocent babies as a threat. They massacred those innocent babies in their mothers' arms, like those terrorists [PKK] here. They massacred those innocent children on their bicycles. They are saw students, youngsters as a threat. Those children threw stones and they threw phosphorus bombs. And, unfortunately, the world is standing behind the ones who used phosphorus bombs.

It has nothing to do with Hamas, al-Qaeda, anti-Semitism. Do not deceive others. Be honest! Our problem has to do with Israel's tyrannizing state terror method.

Then, Erdogan left made his rhetorical mark:

This is an explicit example of Israel's ill psychology, paranoia and trauma. They say "the world is hypocritical to us". The one who is hypocritical, liar and proud of murderers is you! You know killing well. I am talking to them in their language. The sixth command in Torah says "You shall not kill." Let me say it in your language, I am saying in Hebrew: "Lo Tir'tsach."

Meanwhile, the Turkish Prime Minister's "Kurdish Initiative" continues. Massoud Barzani, president of the Regional Kurdish Administration in Iraq, was in Turkey for the firs time in nine years.

Barzani talked to Erdogan, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, and Selahattin Demirtas, the leader of Peace and Democracy Party (BDP).The Iraqi Kurdish leader said that he welcomed and appreciated the "Kurdish Initiative", a government-led project to grant more rights to ethnic Kurds in Turkey. He also told Erdogan he would give support to Turkey's fight against PKK, the separatist/terrorist organisation. Davutoglu called Barzani "Kak Barzani" ("Barzani brother").

Demirtas said:

We expressed to Barzani our satisfaction with developing peaceful relations between Turkey and the [Iraqi] Kurdistan region. Barzani underlined how important his visit is and he said their relations with Turkey would be more robust.

BDP believes that, with good relations between neighbors and the Kurdistan region, Turkey must provide peace in the region. We hope this visit will contribute to peace in the region."

We do politics as an opposition party. We say this initiative does not lead to democratization and radical reforms. Barzani has his own views but we stand at the same point.

As Barzani was holding talks with politicians, his representatives met with Zafer Caglayan, state minister responsible for foreign trade. Caglayan said a delegation of businessmen would pay a visit to Erbil in Iraqi Kurdistan to seek trade and investment possibilities.

Sinan Celebi, trade and industry authority for the regional administration, added, “Everything is ready and there is potential. Let’s cooperate. We expect Turkish companies to invest as soon as possible. The doors are wide open." The visit is expected to take place in July.

So Davutoglu's "zero-problem" strategy is still on track. Indeed, Erdogan might be interested in boosting northern Iraq's economy in returnfor political and military support against PKK. This would diminish the dominance of BDP amongst Kurdish people inside Turkey. if not the party itself can be "tamed".

Still, the ripples of Israel and Gaza affect even this issue. When asked ababout Erdogan's words accusing Israel of "state terrorism", the deputy chairman of BDP, Bengi Yildiz, said: "That is true, Turkey is applying to state terrorism to Kurds too".

Iran Document: Detained Filmmaker Nourizad Writes the Supreme Leader

Last week filmmaker and journalist Mohammad Nourizad was jailed for 3 1/2 years, in part because of four letters had written to the Supreme Leader. This week he wrote a fifth letter to Ayatollah Khamenei. Translation by Pedestrian:

They take me every which way, while I am blindfolded. When I enter the room, I see a 40-something year old man sitting across a long table. He shows me the other end of the table and I sit down. After the usual greetings …

He says: Mr. Nourizad, I really didn’t want to see you here. Why do you have to be here?

I say: This is my home. I believe I’m a landlord here, not a lunatic felon who is here to be disciplined and punished.



He says: You’re causing quite a mess these days. The guard has written me and has complained that you’ve punched him and ripped his shirt!

I say: the difference between that guard and I is that his letter reaches you in two days, but a letter I wrote to the prosecutor general more than a month ago, has yet to reach him.

The man who is sitting opposite me raises his amputated arm and tries to scratch his face. This is when I know that the person sitting opposite me, who seems to have the nerves of steel, is no one other than Tehran’s Prosecutor General, Jafari Dowlat Abadi. I’d heard before that the prosecutor general had lost one of his arms up to his wrist, in the war.

I say: you must be Mr. Jafari.

He says: yes.

I say: they took me out of my prison cell for a walk and then raided my cell while I was gone, taking my personal belongings.

He goes through some notes he has in front of him. Then he says: why must you write “we are alive and so we shall live” on your t-shirt?

I say: what part of our intelligence and security services will this simple sentence of mine affect?

He says: this reminds me of Descartes who said: “I protest therefore I am!”

I say: your friends took two of my writings from my personal belongings. You have my permission to read them and get them to those they were intended for. The first is called "The Secret of the Donkey’s 'Hee-Haw'” and the second piece is called "A Letter to Members of Parliament". I don’t care much about the first piece which is directed at the Intelligence Ministry, but give my second letter to Mr. [Ali] Larijani, the head of parliament, so he can distribute it and read it for other MPs.

He says: I have nothing to do with Parliament. But why don’t you write a letter to the father [Khamenei]? If you write it, we will get it to the father really fast, through Mr. [Sadegh] Larijani of the judiciary. If you ask for a pardon in the letter, it will be even better.

I say: I will not ask for a pardon, because I believe I have done nothing wrong. The problem with my letters is that nobody sees that I write them out of concern. Like today, it’s been three days now that I’ve been on a hunger strike, why? Because I can’t find any legal authority who actually respects the law.

He laughs. The word “hunger strike” makes him laugh.

He says sincerely: no, Mr. Nourizad, do not go on a hunger strike.

I say: They’ve transferred me from ward 240, from a prison cell with a bath and a toilet, to ward 209. A cell which has no facilities, in scalding heat. I insist that I want to see the guardian of the ward, but they pay no attention. When I hit on the cell door out of protest, the door opens, the guard gets violent, he calls on others and the five of them pick me up from the ground and throw me back hard. My head gives a thud sound. My shoulders are injured. My eyesight is worse and I have a terrible headache.

I say: and this is how headaches turn into nausea.

He accepts my words, but insists that I stop my strike.

I say: Mr. Jafari, I am determined to continue my hunger strike. It’s been three days now and I had to drag myself here with much difficulty. I have not even had a cup of water or sugar. They’ve taken x-rays of my shoulders at the prison. There might not be anything in the x-rays, but I’m on this strike because of the lawlessness of your friends. You will drag my body out of the prison cell in a few days.

He says: it’s not right for you to kill yourself with your own two hands.

I say: why did Imam Hussein [3rd Shia Imam, who according to Shi'a history, was murdered by the tyrant caliphate Yazid] do it then?

He says: Because he was confronting Yazid.

I say: Wherever there is lawlessness, there is a Yazid. Like our legal system which I’m sure has nothing to do with Islam. You take “P” and send him to prison, but you leave free all those he has exposed. You arrest Shahram Jazayeri [an Iranian businessman jailed for corruption], and give [someone] who has become a multi-millionaire through laundering government funds, a ministerial position.

I say: This system is so dysfunctional and decrepit that someone like XXX is easily used by others and, through his driver and mother, commits the most atrocious injustices.

He says: this very clever men have given 200 Million Tomans [about $200,000] to his mosque.

I say: I’ve heard too. But I’ve also heard that they’ve given a villa to his driver, and they’ve asked him to sign many things. As a prosecutor general, you have no courage to protest? Why? Because you are too needy of this high table and your high rank.

He says: that’s not true. I’m just a war veteran.

I say: so what? High ranks are coveted by everyone, war veteran or not. Why don’t you protest? This system is rife with incompetent, unjust judges.

He says: It is, but not around me.

I say: Why don’t you resign?

He says: I remain here so I might be able to do some good.

I say: everyone tries to justify their own wrong deeds using that excuse.

I say: most of our system is stained with bribery and smuggling. Most disregard the law. But you’ve thrown me in jail for telling the truth, and you’ve allowed ignorant interrogators to beat me and threaten my family. But those who are misusing government funds are free. And you don’t even have the courage to arrest them.

I say: justice in our legal system is only a big joke. I’m in prison for criticizing this justice which has fallen ill. And those who are responsible for the illness of our legal, financial and security systems are free and are even given support.

The prosecutor general listens to my words calmly, and reiterates his request that I write a letter to the leader.

I say: I will write, but only the way I want to.

He says: just write.

They bring me a pen and paper, and while I am struggling after 3 days of a hunger strike, I write:

“If someone visits a holy city and sees that city being overpowered by the stench of garbage, do they have no right to complain? Must they arrest him and throw him in prison for complaining? This is what has happened to me. I don’t see this much ugliness befitting of the revolution. A revolution which took all that effort. In prison, I have been subject to the brutal beating of ignorant interrogators. Interrogators who use the most vile ways to force prisoners to confess. Interrogators who use the dirtiest ways, and the most despicable language. I really wish that I could come to you and tell you of the second Kahrizak [a linking of Evin Prison to the closed Kahrizak Prison, where post-election detainees were abused and killed] and to tell you of the despicable behavior shown by those who claim to be the soldiers of Islam …”

I do not fold the letter, and I give it to the prosecutor. In a separate letter I write to him: “"When my verdict hasn’t been announced yet, why am I being kept in a maximum security prison?” And I ask him to be transferred to the general ward.

Now that I write this, I am in the general ward. In section 7, hall 5.

Mohammad Nourizad

Egypt Analysis: Reviewing This Week's Elections

A new EA correspondent writes:

This week, there were elections to the Shura Council (Maglis il Shura), the upper house of the Egyptian parliament (Maglis il Shab). A third of the 264 seats will be decided by voting, with 44 more seats appointed by the President.

According to the Supreme Electoral Committee, 446 candidates are running in the elections: 115 belong to political parties whilst the remaining 331 candidates are independents, including some members of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The elections will not be under national court supervision or international monitoring, as Gamal Mubarak, General Secretary of the Policy Committee in the National Democratic Party, declared at a recent press conference: "This issue is governed by the law and the constitution which made it possible for civil society organizations to monitor the elections."



A journalist from Al Masry Al Youm claims that reporters were not allowed to enter the voting booths in Kafr il Zayat. He entered the voting booth as an "Egyptian citizen" to cast his ballot, only to find that --- as the elections officially began at 8 a.m. --- ballot boxes "256, 257, and 258" had already been filled with signed votes.

Mehwar confirmed in live coverage that representatives of candidates were prevented from entering the polling areas. The official authorisation (tawqeel) given by national security authorities to the representatives were disallowed in some cases.

Another reporter from Al Shorouq, speaking on the programme "Sabah Dream",claimed that in Besyoun in Asyut, representatives for candidates were not allowed to enter the voting booths to check that the elections fulfilled the legal requirements. Police arrested an opposition candidate, for "causing disruption" and for the sake of security, when he tried to get his representative to observe the local elections.

The reporter  added that he managed to obtain 200 ballot papers before entering the voting booth.

In the Behira constituency, a journalist from Al Masry al Youm --- again reporting "Sabah Dream" --- that an opposition candidate (from the Muslim Brotherhood) was shot by police. The injury was not life-threatening.

An Egyptian citizen from Masr al Gedida (New Cairo) was refused the right to vote, despite showing her identification card, because authorities could not find her name on the voters' list. Having lost her voting card, she was determined to vote and was advised that she could do so with proof of ID.  However, after a venture with officials throughout the building in a vain search for her name,  the disappointed woman returned home.

Whilst this determined citizen could not vote because of an innocent mistake, many others will not be bothering to turn up at all.  Only two out of eight citizens interviewed in a Cairo programme said they would vote.

That may not be surprising: when the Shura Council building went up in flames on 7 July 2009, few people interviewed on evening programmes showed concern for the welfare of the members of the Council.

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