The Afghanistan Effect: US-Iran Talks Today?

CNN has a wonderfully naive story this morning, based on the public position of the US Secretary of State, "Clinton doesn't rule out Iran talks at Afghanistan conference". It puts out Hillary Clinton's statement, as more than 80 countries gather at The Hague for discussions:

I believe that there will be an opening by this conference that will enable all the countries, including Iran, to come forward. The fact that they accepted the invitation to come suggests that they believe there is a role for them to play, and we're looking forward to hearing more about that.

The wonderful naiveté is in CNN's assumption that direct US-Iran talks would be at high level:

Clinton said she has "no plans" to meet with Deputy Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Mehdi Akoundzadeh, who is attending the conference. But she left open the possibility, saying she would not predict how the discussions would flow.

As anyone who has braved such an event probably knows, most of the substantive negotiations occur away from the conference table amongst the teams of supporting officials who accompany Secretaries of State and Foreign Ministers. Indeed, that was the pattern of US-Iran talks on Afghanistan after 9-11 until spring 2003, when they were broken by the Bush Administration in favour of thoughts of regime change in Tehran.

(CNN's innocent re-telling of the US-Iran relationship puts it this way: "Clinton noted Iran's history of cooperating with the United States on Afghanistan since the U.S. invasion in 2001. In 2003, U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad held talks with Iranian officials in Geneva, Switzerland, about how the two countries could work together.")

CNN also seems to have no knowledge that these US-Iran talks, as we wrote on Sunday, have already resumed in places like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Moscow.

Those looking for real signals on what may come should note Iran's careful consderation of the level of representation at the conference. Tehran has not sent its Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, withholding the open declaration of high-level equality in interchange. Even more importantly, the Iranian representative to the Shanghai talks --- the same Mohammad Mehdi Akoundzadeh who will be at The Hague --- has put down a marker on the US military approach:

The presence of foreign troops cannot bring peace and stability for Afghanistan. It encourages radicalism.

Politically Akounzadeh is making clear that Iran does not want the US, and US-Iran talks at the centre of the Afghanistan process:

Resolving ongoing problems in Afghanistan will be possible through regional partnership and Islamic Republic of Iran supports this stance....He said that the Americans have linked Afghan issue to their own internal problems, considering Afghanistan from an American angle, while this policy and strategy has never been successful, rather it has increased problems in Afghanistan and the region.

Instead, Iran will be seeking in any talks to make Washington one of a number of players in an Afghanistan solution, rather than the leader of the pack.

Breaking News: Iran to Attend US-Led Talks on Afghanistan

The Iranian Foreign Ministry has confirmed reports from Dutch sources, which emerged last night but were missed by the US media, that Tehran representatives will attend next week's talks on Afghanistan in The Hague.

Iran has not confirmed the level of the officials who will be sent to the discussions, where the US will be represented by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. However, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said yesterday during a trip to Brazil, ""We believe that a regional solution should be found for the Afghanistan crisis. Iran's goal in the region is to help peace, stability and calm which is necessary for the region's progress."