The Afghanistan Effect: US-Iran Talks Today?

CNN has a wonderfully naive story this morning, based on the public position of the US Secretary of State, "Clinton doesn't rule out Iran talks at Afghanistan conference". It puts out Hillary Clinton's statement, as more than 80 countries gather at The Hague for discussions:

I believe that there will be an opening by this conference that will enable all the countries, including Iran, to come forward. The fact that they accepted the invitation to come suggests that they believe there is a role for them to play, and we're looking forward to hearing more about that.

The wonderful naiveté is in CNN's assumption that direct US-Iran talks would be at high level:

Clinton said she has "no plans" to meet with Deputy Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Mehdi Akoundzadeh, who is attending the conference. But she left open the possibility, saying she would not predict how the discussions would flow.

As anyone who has braved such an event probably knows, most of the substantive negotiations occur away from the conference table amongst the teams of supporting officials who accompany Secretaries of State and Foreign Ministers. Indeed, that was the pattern of US-Iran talks on Afghanistan after 9-11 until spring 2003, when they were broken by the Bush Administration in favour of thoughts of regime change in Tehran.

(CNN's innocent re-telling of the US-Iran relationship puts it this way: "Clinton noted Iran's history of cooperating with the United States on Afghanistan since the U.S. invasion in 2001. In 2003, U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad held talks with Iranian officials in Geneva, Switzerland, about how the two countries could work together.")

CNN also seems to have no knowledge that these US-Iran talks, as we wrote on Sunday, have already resumed in places like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Moscow.

Those looking for real signals on what may come should note Iran's careful consderation of the level of representation at the conference. Tehran has not sent its Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, withholding the open declaration of high-level equality in interchange. Even more importantly, the Iranian representative to the Shanghai talks --- the same Mohammad Mehdi Akoundzadeh who will be at The Hague --- has put down a marker on the US military approach:

The presence of foreign troops cannot bring peace and stability for Afghanistan. It encourages radicalism.

Politically Akounzadeh is making clear that Iran does not want the US, and US-Iran talks at the centre of the Afghanistan process:

Resolving ongoing problems in Afghanistan will be possible through regional partnership and Islamic Republic of Iran supports this stance....He said that the Americans have linked Afghan issue to their own internal problems, considering Afghanistan from an American angle, while this policy and strategy has never been successful, rather it has increased problems in Afghanistan and the region.

Instead, Iran will be seeking in any talks to make Washington one of a number of players in an Afghanistan solution, rather than the leader of the pack.

Exclusive: US, NATO Talking With Iran About Afghanistan

This week Iranian representatives will join those of other countries at the US-led conference on Afghanistan at The Hague. Most of the media will note this, rightly, as a breakthrough in US-Iran engagement.

Guess what? Those discussions have already started. The Voice of America reported Friday:

Asia's six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or SCO, held a meeting in Moscow Friday to discuss ways of combating terrorism, drug-trafficking, and organized crime in Afghanistan. Among those invited to the meeting were diplomats from the United States and Iran.

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Patrick Moon, and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammad Mehdi Akhonzadeh spoke within minutes of one another at the SCO's Special Conference on Afghanistan.

While Iranian and US representatives repeated the political line that, in VOA's words, "it is not unusual for them to attend the same international forums", a senior American official emphasised that "the U.S. considers Iran to be an important player related to Afghanistan".

So, while Bush Administration officials (and US military commanders like David Petraeus up to last month) accused Tehran of running weapons to the Taliban across the Afghan border, their Obama successors are discussing how to work with Iran to secure that border. Even more importantly, those talks are coming in a regional context: the other members of the Shanghai group are Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

The significance of the evolving US-Iran relationship of Afghanistan was reinforced by the confirmation that an Iranian diplomat had held informal talks with NATO officials for the first time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Senior NATO negotiator Martin Erdmann met with Iran's ambassador to the European Union, Ali-Asghar Khaji, and commented, "This is another good step in engaging Iran in the international community."

A NATO spokesman confirmed that the talks with Mr Khaji had concentrated on Afghanistan.