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Wednesday
Mar042009

The Latest on Israel-Palestine (4 March): US Keeps Hamas on Outside

Related Post: Ms Clinton’s Wild Ride - A US “Grand Strategy” on Israel-Palestine-Iran?

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Evening Update (7 p.m.): US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (pictured), at a news conference after her meeting with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, has described Israeli plans to demolish dozens of Palestinian homes in East Jerusalem as "unhelpful".

Clinton sent out another unsubtle signal regarding the West Bank and Gaza: "The US supports the Palestinian Authority as the only legitimate government of the Palestinian people."

Afternoon Update (11:30 a.m.): US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has met the Palestinian Authority's Salam Fayyad, who pressed for a halt to extension of Israeli settlements and an opening of Gazan border crossings.

Morning Update (6:20 a.m. GMT): Speaking after her meetings with high-ranking Israeli officials on Tuesday, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton  restated the long-standing preconditions on any engagement with Hamas in the Israel-Palestine process: recognition of Israel, renunciation of violence, and adherence to agreements from 2005 on issues such as border crossings. Clinton said, referring to the points set out by the Quartet of the US-European Union-United Nations-Russia, "In the absence of Hamas agreeing to the principles that have been adopted by such a broad range of international actors, I don't see that we or they -- or anyone -- could deal with Hamas."

Clinton went further, however, in his denunciation of Hamas, indicating a link of US policy on Israel-Palestine to a shift in Washington's approach to Tehran. Asked if Hamas had to make a public statement, rather than a private commitment, she answered, "Well, the PLO did that, and I think no less can be expected of Hamas which is, obviously, not only a terrorist group but is increasingly a client of Iran."
Wednesday
Mar042009

Ms Clinton's Wild Ride: Iran's Supreme Leader Says US on "Wrong Path"

Related Post: Ms Clinton’s Wild Ride - A US “Grand Strategy” on Israel-Palestine-Iran?

khameneiIn a mirror image of Hillary Clinton's tough comments on Iran and the revelation of the US offer to Russia to swap missile defense for Tehran's nuclear programme,  Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told a Tehran conference on Palestine that President Obama was following the "wrong path" of his predecessor, George W. Bush: "Even the new president of America, who has come to power with slogans about changing Bush's policies, is defending state terrorism by talking about unconditional commitment to Israel's security."

Question: is Khamenei responding to Clinton or is Clinton responding to Khamenei? Or are the two running in parallel paths, with Palestine as the symbolic issue of division?
Wednesday
Mar042009

Pakistan: The Latest on the Lahore Attack on Sri Lankan Cricketers

sri-lanka-cricket-attack1Pakistani authorities have arrested up to 100 suspects over yesterday's attack that killed seven and wounded several members of the touring Sri Lanka cricket team. None of the 12 gunmen involved in the attack are among those detained.

No one has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Wednesday
Mar042009

Pakistan: Zardari Maintains His Wiggle Room Against Washington, Domestic Rivals

zardariIn yesterday's Wall Street Journal, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari (and the very capable PR agency behind him) set out a high-profile position on the issues of the Pakistani insurgency, Afghanistan, and terrorism. However, the Journal's headline, "Pakistan is Steadfast Against Terror: We aren't appeasing the Taliban or terrorists in Swat", wondrously missed the point of Zardari's opinion piece (which is reprinted below).

Zardari did open by praising Islamabad's role in the Washington review process: "Last week....Pakistan, the U.S. and Afghanistan agreed on a coherent military and political strategy to isolate and deal with those intent on destabilizing our region and terrorizing the world." He "began with a fact: Pakistan's fight against terrorism is relentless," citing the killing of "high officials" and hundreds of fighters of Al Qa'eda and the Taliban.

Then he added his stinger: "In the highly volatile Swat Valley, our strategy has been to enter into talks with traditional local clerics to help restore peace to the area, and return the writ of the state."

His Government is trying to separate those clerics from the bad guys: "The clerics with whom we have engaged are not Taliban. Indeed, in our dialogue we'd made it clear that it is their responsibility to rein in and neutralize Taliban and other insurgents." And, addressing the issue of sharia in the autonomous territories, Zardari posted a symbolic limit on how far the clerics could go: "We have not and will not condone the closing of girls' schools."

So Zardari's first mission was maintaining his manoeuvring position not against the "Taliban" or the clerics, but Washington. It is unclear what the Obama Administration's private line is on the talks with local leaders in the Northwest Frontier Provinces, but publicly US officials have been sweeping in their denunciation of "caving in" to sharia and other demands.

The Pakistan President may have had a more important mission, however, against a much different enemy: his political and judicial opponents. The second half of his article was devoted to his supposed defense of an "independent judiciary", with a restoration of almost all judges dismissed by his predecessor, Pervez Musharraf. He proclaimed:
My government had taken legal steps to overturn a lower-court decision that would not allow former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his brother to serve in public office. The Supreme Court, however, chose to uphold the lower court decision. This is the nature of an independent judiciary, and this is the process of rule of law.

One has to admire Zardari's audacity as he feigns his sadness. The chief demand of many lawyers and judges in Pakistan is the restoration of the Chief Justice, Iftikhar Chaudhry; the suspicion is that the Supreme Court is the same one packed by Musharraf in his attempt to cling to power and the same one that allowed Zardari to take office by wiping away the long-standing corruption charges against him. The President's public game is to claim his legal support of his chief political rival, while privately knowing that the judicial odds have been stacked against Sharif.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Zardari is completely above board with this defense of "democracy". The point is that few outside Pakistan have looked behind the cloak of "terrorism" to see the equally critical issue of the political storm brewing in Islamabad. And the question is --- if there are no more attacks on Sri Lankan cricketers to deflect attention from that conflict--- will that storm threaten to sweep away the President?

Pakistan Is Steadfast Against Terror
We aren't appeasing the Taliban or terrorists in Swat.

ASIF ALI ZARDARI

Last week's trilateral meeting in Washington between U.S. leaders and the foreign ministers, military and intelligence leaders of my country and Afghanistan was a crucial step forward in the war on terrorism and fanaticism in South and Central Asia. For the first time, Pakistan, the U.S. and Afghanistan agreed on a coherent military and political strategy to isolate and deal with those intent on destabilizing our region and terrorizing the world.

By reaching agreement, we have overcome the past legacy of distrust that has characterized Pakistani-Afghan relations for decades and has complicated strategic planning and common goals. Monday's terrorist attack against the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore shows once again the evil we are confronting.

But if Pakistan, Afghanistan and the U.S. are to prevail in the ongoing battle against terrorism, straight talk is essential. And this straight talk begins with a fact: Pakistan's fight against terrorism is relentless. Since the election of a democratic government last year, we have successfully conducted military operations in our Federally Administered Tribal Areas and other parts of the country, capturing or killing high officials of al Qaeda and the Taliban, as well as hundreds of their fighters. In the highly volatile Swat Valley, our strategy has been to enter into talks with traditional local clerics to help restore peace to the area, and return the writ of the state.

We have not and will not negotiate with extremist Taliban and terrorists. The clerics with whom we have engaged are not Taliban. Indeed, in our dialogue we'd made it clear that it is their responsibility to rein in and neutralize Taliban and other insurgents. If they do so and lay down their arms, this initiative will have succeeded for the people of Swat Valley. If not, our security forces will act accordingly. Unfortunately, this process of weaning reconcilable elements of an insurgency away from the irreconcilables has been mischaracterized in the West.

Moreover, we have not and will not condone the closing of girls' schools, as we saw last year when militants closed schools in pockets of Swat Valley. Indeed, the government insists that the education of young women is mandatory. This is not an example of the government condoning or capitulating to extremism -- quite the opposite.

Our transitional Pakistani democracy is still restructuring after decades of episodic dictatorship. One of the most critical institutions that needs to be resurrected is an independent judiciary. Recent decisions of the Pakistani Supreme Court have been criticized by many in my country, and indeed by some in my political party. In particular, my government had taken legal steps to overturn a lower-court decision that would not allow former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his brother to serve in public office. The Supreme Court, however, chose to uphold the lower court decision. This is the nature of an independent judiciary, and this is the process of rule of law.

An overwhelming majority (57 out of 63) of superior court judges dismissed under the previous government's emergency rule has returned to the court. The judiciary of Pakistan has been restored, and is independent. In a mature polity, when one loses in court, one respects the decision of the court and moves on, seeking other constitutional remedies. It is not the nature of democracy to appeal court decisions to the streets. This is part of the culture of cynicism and negativity that for too long has permeated Pakistani politics.

When the U.S. Supreme Court decided the presidency in Bush v. Gore, Vice President Al Gore did not call for his millions of supporters to take to the streets to try to overturn by force the ruling of the court. He and the Democratic Party accepted the Supreme Court's decision and moved on. The Democrats later regained the Congress and now the presidency. That is the mark of a successful democracy. The recent agitation in the province of Punjab (supposedly in favor of Mr. Sharif) is an attempt to destabilize our democracy and a major distraction from Pakistan's critical problems, which include reviving our economy and fighting violent extremism.

I have long fought for democracy in my country. Thousands in my party and other parties have died through the years fighting against dictatorship and tyranny. The greatest champion of democracy in my country, my wife Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto, gave her life fighting for the values of liberty. This is an existential battle. If we lose, so too will the world. Failure is not an option.


Tuesday
Mar032009

Breaking News: Sri Lankan Cricketers Attacked in Pakistan

Latest Post: The Latest on the Lahore Attack on Sri Lankan Cricketers

sri-lanka-cricket-attackUpdate (4:40 p.m. GMT): Reuters' latest updates say the death doll from today's attack is now eight- this includes six police, the driver of a van in the players' convoy, and one other. Six players and the coach of the Sri Lankan cricket team are now thought to have been injured.

Meanwhile Sardar Nabil Ahmed Gabol, Pakistan's minister of state for shipping, has blamed India for the attack, calling it a "reaction" to November's Mumbai attacks, "a conspiracy" and "a declaration of open war on Pakistan by India."

As discussed here, what may at first appear to be an odd target for a terrorist attack may have serious repercussions for the region- the International Cricket Council looks likely to prevent international matches being played in Pakistan, and has also raised doubts over the 2011 World Cup, due to be co-hosted by Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Update (12:40 p.m.): Lifting two comments from Josh Mull ("UJ"), drawing on his knowledge of Pakistani politics and society:

Comment 1: If the various factions of Taliban start condemning it, we’ll be able to triangulate the group responsible based on their current relationships with insurgent leaders. If, on the other hand, we see MULTIPLE groups taking credit, then we’re on the trail to jihadists. Insurgents care deeply about their reputation, particularly their credibility and respect among the local population. Jihadis don’t give a s**t. By their calculation, it’s BETTER for us to be confused as to who really did it and how many jihadis are actually out there....

Comment 2: Now we’ve got a bit of an official narrative. It’s almost the same as Mumbai: 1. It’s Terrorists 2. It’s designed to embarrass Pakistan.

But what the narrative is missing is patience. The Pakistani government reacted almost immediately with “this is a plot to humiliate us!” versus the response to Mumbai, which was “hold on everybody, let’s do a thorough investigation to make sure we have all the facts.”

No, this time they knew it wasn’t their own assets, and they knew right away.

I smell jihadis. Now let’s see who takes credit…

Update (11:45 a.m.): CNN has revised the reports of injuries. As reported earlier, batsman Thilan Samaraweera was shot in the thigh but batsmen Tharanga Paranavitana, not assistant coach Paul Farbrace, was shot in the chest. Reports indicate that gunmen initially targeted a police car and two security vehicles in front of the bus, rather than the team vehicle.

Update (8:55 a.m.): Pakistani newspaper Dawn is reporting six policemen and two bystanders killed. Batsman Thilan Samawareera, shot in the thigh, and assistant coach Paul Farbrace, shot in the chest, are in hospital with injuries which are not life-threatening. Captain Mahela Jayawardene, Kumar Sangakkara, Tharanga Paranavithana and Ajantha Mendis suffered minor injuries.

Update (7:55 a.m.): Charlie Austin, agent to six Sri Lankan players, relays their story: wheels of bus were shot out but driver kept bus moving. Attack lasted 2-3 minutes.

Update (7;35 a.m.): Sri Lankan cricketers reported injured - Jayawardene, Sangakkara, Mendis, Paranavitana, Samaraweera. One cricketer shot in thigh, one in chest. Others cut by glass.

Update (7:15 a.m. GMT): The two most seriously wounded cricketers are in "critical but stable" condition.

At least eight Pakistani security personnel have been killed and at least six members of the Sri Lanka cricket team wounded in an attack in Lahore this morning. Two of the cricketers have been shot in the assault on the Sri Lanka bus by about a dozen gunmen. The most seriously wounded is Thilan Samaraweera, who yesterday scored a double century (more than 200 runs) in his innings in the Pakistan-Sri Lanka test match.