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Entries in Iran Elections 2009 (58)

Monday
Mar152010

The Latest from Iran (15 March): Breaking Human Rights

2133 GMT: More Death Penalties or Old News? There's chatter tonight about a supposed announcement of "six death sentences" for protesters on Ashura (27 December), featured on The New York Times website.

We're being careful about this. Our perception is that the announcement is merely the restatement of death sentences which have already been announced by the Tehran Prosecutor General's office, rather than --- as the NYT piece indicates --- a new set of capital punishments.

2130 GMT: We've posted a separate entry on the developing story of the ban on the Islamic Iran Participation Front.

1945 GMT: Resisting the Empire of Lies. Responding to the Government's assertion that it has been banned (see 1650 GMT), the reformist party Islamic Iran Participation Front calls on all political and social activists to continue their social struggles and not to “give in to the empire of lies”. The IIPF claimed that the attempted ban reveals the “weakness of the government” and that civil institutions and activists will “grow and expand" their activities.

NEW Iran Breaking: Ban on Reformist Political Party
NEW Your Super-Special Iran Caption Contest
Iran: The Opposition’s Campaign in the US — Sequel With Revelations and A Lesson
Iran: Connecting the Dots — 5 Signs of Regime Trouble
Iran Letter: “I Am Still Alive to Tell the Story” (Shams)
The Latest from Iran (14 March): False Strategies, Real Conflicts


1940 GMT: Power, Money, and Oil. The engineering firm owned by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has been awarded an $850 million oil pipeline contract.


1935 GMT: Denying the Propaganda. The Center for Defense of Human Rights, connected with Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi, has rejected the allegation of Fars that it receives financial aid from the US Government. CDHR announced that it intends to sue the news agency for libel.

1930 GMT: Have a Happy Great Satan, Off-the-Streets Fire Festival. An activist reports that Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting is showing 11 movies on Tuesday, including District 9 andUP on Charshanbeh Suri. I'm sure this has nothing to do with a wish to keep people inside their homes and off the streets during the Fire Festival.


1650 GMT: Barring the Reformists? Deputy Interior Minister Solat Mortazavi says the Islamic Iran Participation Front, Iran's largest reformist party, has been stripped by the judiciary of its authorization to conduct political activity.

The judiciary has not confirmed the ban, and the IIPF said it was only barred from holding its annual meeting, scheduled for 11 March.

1545 GMT: Compromise Resolution? Iran's Parliament, after a skirmish with President Ahmadinejad, has given final approval to a $368 billion budget for the year to March 2011.

The Majlis originally passed a $347 billion plan, but Ahmadinejad wanted an extra $40 billion from anticipated subsidy reductions. The Parliament agreed to grant $20 billion but held out against the President's full request, despite an unusual appearance by Ahmadinejad to deliver a speech during voting.

1430 GMT: You asked for it, you've got it --- our readers have found the perfect photo for an Iran caption contest. Let the fun begin....

1245 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Prominent human rights lawyer Mohammad Oliyaifard has been released from detention.

1240 GMT: Showing Support. Mir Hossein Mousavi has met with members of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front.

1145 GMT: Ahmadinejad Embraces Non-Violence? Iran's latest get-tough pose loses something in translation. From Press TV:
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has named the country's team tasked with minimizing the effects of damage on the country should it be attacked by foreign forces.

The occupant of the presidential palace in downtown Tehran on Monday appointed Chief-of-Staff of Iran's Joint Armed Forces Major General Hassan Firouzabadi as the head of the Permanent Passive Defense Committee.

A statement from the President's office also identified Davud Ahmadinejad as the President's special representative and the country's ministers of interior, defense and science as members of the committee.

0940 GMT: Gender and the Green Movement. Speaking to BBC Persian, Shadi Sadr has declared that the women's movement has managed to gather forces from different camps, from the religious (Azam Taleghani) to the secular (publisher Shahla Lahiji) to press its demands and influence politics at all levels. She complained that the women's movement has no political representative in the Green Movement. [A reader comments: Could Sadr fill that role?]

0930 GMT: Question of Day. Why was Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi meeting marjas (senior clerics) in Qom?

0640 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran Gender Equality is maintaining two important lists: one on the status of women political prisoners and one on the status of detained journalists.

0615 GMT: The National Iranian American Council has published its summary of the US-Iran panel at last week's hearings in the US Senate. It's a fair reflection of a "realism" amongst American experts which is focused on nukes, nukes, nukes.

As NIAC notes, that issue was set within a call for a "broader strategic outlook" to deal with US-Iran tensions, bringing in discussion of Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, and Iranian security. Questions of rights and justice in Iran, however, were barely mentioned by the panel, in contrast to the first session at the hearings.

0550 GMT: Ripples from the regime's latest strategy --- we've broken the journalists, now let's get the human rights activists --- continue. Among those named as agents for terrorist/US-backed cyber-war is Hossein Ronaghi Maleki, the man behind the Babak Khoramdin blog, who was arrested two months ago on accusations of spying for the CIA.

The attention to human rights campaigners does not mean that others have escaped attention. Among weekend arrests, that of Emad Bahavar of the Freedom Movement of Iran was notable. He was arrested and released recently but broke the condition of his freedom by continuing to publish incisive articles and protests against intrusions by Iranian security services.

Then there are claims that Basiji militia harassed Mehdi Karroubi's family on Sunday, surrounding and vandalising his house.

Understandably, in the face of the intense regime pressure, overt opposition moves are limited at the moment. Chatter continues about demonstrations tomorrow during the Chahrshanbeh Suri (Fire Festival) celebrations, but no substantial plans are being put forward.
Sunday
Mar142010

Iran: The Opposition's Campaign in the US --- Sequel With Revelations and A Lesson

First, the update on the story of "a senior aide" to Mehdi Karroubi giving a press conference in Washington and the subsequent focus on his comments about a split between the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad, rather than the Green Movement's strategy, objectives, and views of US policy on Iran.

Iran: The Opposition’s New PR Campaign in the US
The Latest from Iran (14 March): False Strategies, Real Conflicts


Having been told that the aide was not Ataollah Mohajerani, the former Minister whose appearance in Washington last October brought tension rather than American support for the Greens, we put together the identity of the aide last night. Tehran Bureau, which to our knowledge has published the only significant report of the press conference, has now withdrawn the cloak of anonymity, so we can confirm that the speaker was Mojtaba Vahedi, "chief of staff" to Mehdi Karroubi since 1982 and editor-in-chief of reformist newspaper Aftab Yazd until January 2010.



The issue was not necessarily Vahedi's emphasis, as tangential as it might be, that "over the past nine months, we've seen Mr. Khamenei go from praise and support to silence to refusal to back the president". (An example of Vahedi's analysis can be found in an interview in Radio Zamaneh.) Rather it was the media's treatment of him as a spokesman for Karroubi.

A knowledgeable EA correspondent summarises:
The Khamenei-Ahmadinejad split is at best a rumor with no substantial elements to back it up. But then again, these people's claim to fame is the ability to produce "insider" information from within Iran and use their former proximity to ruling circles and people within Iran....I am sure Vahedi has proven links and solid contact with the people inside Iran, however he is not necessarily (and my gut feeling is that he isn't at all) a spokesperson or representative for Karroubi. In the same way that [Mohsen] Makhmalbaf doesn't necessarily represent Mir Hossein Mousavi.

The revised Tehran Bureau article backs up this point with the single line, "Vahedi asked that his comments not be attributed to Karroubi."

The problem actually stems from good intentions. Reporters in Washington want to get a picture of events inside Iran but face the challenges of getting around regime restrictions and gaps in communication. So they seize upon individuals --- who may have had significant inside Iran but are now outside the country --- as "spokesmen" when, in fact, they are expressing personal opinions.

In this case, the outcome was a fizzle. Vahedi offered little for "mainstream" journalists to grasp, so apart from Tehran Bureau, the effort disappeared. Yet, if his comments had been reported, they were likely to be misleading and counter-productive: the lead would have been his speculation over Khamenei and Ahmadinejad rather than any sense of the state of the opposition and its ambitions.

Put bluntly, this is a case where older visions of leaders handing down their insights through "senior aides" continue to overshadow the reality of a disparate Green Movement which, battling the regime's suppressions, can struggle to provide a focus for observers. Mir Hossein Mousavi's "We are the Media" still needs fulfilment.
Sunday
Mar142010

Iran: Connecting the Dots --- 5 Signs of Regime Trouble

Mr Verde drops by EA to offer this analysis

The news stories in recent days might appear unrelated, but all of them point to behind-the-scenes manoeuvres and disagreements within the regime. It is too early, given the limited information, to understand exactly what is going on within the Islamic Republic, but it is well worth watching for emerging significance.

1. The Release of Mostafa Tajzadeh

During the week, Mostafa Tajzadeh, leading member of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front and former Deputy Interior Minister, was released without bail for the Iranian New Year.



It is an unusual move. The Iranian judiciary has been setting very high bails for post-election detainees. In some instances, even after posting the required bail, detainees have been held for several days. Tajzadeh had refused to pay the bail, saying that he does not own any property to put up as collateral, and now he has been freed temporarily.

Tajzadeh has been a bitter critic of the Guardian Council and its head Ahmad Jannati. He has in the past accused Jannati by name of taking part in fraud during Parliament elections. Given this, who has taken the decision to released Tajzadeh without bail? Why give this small, but very symbolic victory (Tajzadeh has received a hero's welcome, with visits by high-profile political figures) to the reformists at this time?

2. The Parliament Vote Against Ahmadinejad's Subsidy Reform Proposal

To pressure the Majlis to accept his proposal for control of $40 billion from reductions in subsidies, President Ahmadinejad asked the Supreme Leader for help. Khamenei in turn summoned the Majlis Speaker, Ali Larijani, and asked that the Parliament consider the Government's proposal carefully. t

Ahmadinejad then went to the Majlis on the day of the vote and spoke at length in defence of his proposal. He even stayed during the voting to lobby MPs. (Both of these actions are considered illegal.) Despite the Leader’s personal intervention and Ahmadinejad’s appearance, the Majles voted against the President, allowing him to control only $20 billion of the revenue.

Because of the way elections are held in Iran, with the filtering of candidates by the Guardian Council, MPs usually take very seriously what the Supreme Leader says. Many of the current MPs are ex-military, with close links to the Revolutionary Guard and the intelligence services.

So why did 111 MPs vote against the Supreme Leader’s wishes? Has someone else managed to influence the Majles in order to embarrass both Khamenei and Ahamadinejad? Has the Supreme Leader said one thing in public but privately given the go-ahead for the negative vote?

3. The Altered Khamenei Speech

Two weeks after his speech to the Assembly of Experts, the Supreme Leader's website has publisedh a verson of the address with new sections, including references to the Expediency Council’s moves to change the election laws. Khamenei says that he will only approve parts of the Council’s proposals with which he agrees.

Why the two-week delay?  Was this section added to the “speech” after the meeting?  Was it originally omitted not to upset certain people or groups? Is the new version intended to reassure the Guardian Council and its supporters that the Supreme Leader is backing them?

4. Ahmadinejad's Nuclear Story

On Saturday, Fars News quoted Ahmadinejad as saying that, after the 2005 election, he met with the Supreme Leader and asked that the International Atomic Energy Agency's seals be taken off Iran’s nuclear facilities before the President took office.

This directly contradicts Khamenei’s version, as the Supreme Leader has said that he had himself decided for the seals to be removed and uranium enrichment to be resumed.

Is Ahmadinejad deliberately trying to undermine Khamenei? Is he just trying to talk himself up without considering the consequences?

5. Rafsanjani's Moves

Recently Hassan Rohani and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, both said to be close to Hashemi Rafsanjani, have taken direct aim at Ahmadinejad’s government. Rouhani said that some people want to run the country with one gang. Qalibaf said that for the past 14 months no serious work has been done in the country.

Rafsanjani has recently said that he does not want students to be quiet, but he has warned students against talk and actions that would provide excuses for people who want crackdowns on Iranian society.

So what is "The Shark" up to? Is he, working with or through Rohani and Qalibaf, pushing against Ahmadinejad? Is he sanctioning protest or trying to hold it back?

Too early to answer any of these questions, but more than enough here to question where All is Well within the Islamic Republic.
Sunday
Mar142010

Iran Letter: "I Am Still Alive to Tell the Story" (Shams)

Student activist and weblogger Foad Shams was recently released after three months of detention. Far from acknowledging his release by keeping silent, however, he has posted these thoughts on his weblog.  Translated by Persian2English and posted by Street Journalist:

I am still dreaming.

Ninety seven days of being half awake on the hills of Evin brought nothing to me but dreams. The most beautiful children of the sun and the wind during the last cold days of autumn and winter have been on the hills of Evin; the same hills that have for decades been the meeting point of freedom lovers.  The tall walls that are part of the large gate of civilization are reminders of what remains of a political greatness [referring to the time before the 1979 revolution, throughout Iran's history of 2,500 years].  Yes, for years a feast takes place on the hills, and the “Godfathers” are the hosts. I was fortunate enough to be with everyone in this feast during the second half of this year.



The experience of prison in the second half of this year [Persian Calendar year] was the best thing that happened to my life.  It is an experience that will not be repeated. Prison was not as limited for us as the prison guards had hoped for. Quite the opposite, our generation turned the page and the prison became a completely creative place for us. The hosts of this feast were asking us to forget our ideals, but it did not happen. We were dreaming, even in prison. They tried to limit us by using their methods. Well, maybe they restrained us a little. But in my solitary confinement, when I thought that they had taken everything away from me, it was my dreams that would fly me through the window slots on a full moon night; just like a butterfly.

When you think you have nothing to lose and you are deep in thought amidst the heavy silence of cell 105 in ward 209, all of a sudden you hear Hashem whistling to tell you that there are still people on the grass with a flame burning inside. And you hear Mousa banging on the walls to tell you that you are not alone. And the sound of ‘Orange’ [a nickname] coming from a slot is not only a voice, but it is hope.  In the dreams, when the dusk falls, suddenly they sing the song of “the Dusk.”  When you think you are alone and there is no one with you and then all of a sudden Alrahman-ol-Rahim [nick name] tells you about his "flower", who after weeks of no contact, he had seen her for a few minutes and kissed her. You feel like crying, but you smile at Alrahman-ol-Rahim and you tell him to stay strong: they cannot break the stems of your flower.

When the biggest pastime of your life is to listen to a chess game betwen Mahtab and Sogand [two female prisoners] and the cheating by Mahtab. When I think about Sogand and her spirit, I get sad. I blame myself  for telling her that we would be staying in prison for a long time.  And now I am out and she is still in there. When I think about Sogand, I only think about the dawns of tomorrow; a future when Sogand will be with us in the name of freedom. To dream means when you are in solitary confinement and silence has taken over. You even miss listening to the sound of the Qu’ran recited by al-Qaeda brothers.  It is only the sound of your dreams that can give you power in solitary. When Roya [female prisoner] tells you that everyone not only stood outside [the prison] on the 16th of the month, but also the 17th and 18th, you want to scream out for joy.

This is why I miss solitary confinement after 80 days. It was a solitary that did not have the color and smell of loneliness. It was a solitary where I found the best friends of my life; friends whose faces I do not recall, but it is as if we have lived together for 10 years.

But the experience of living in cells where your spirits are lifted by the mere sound of a familiar voice and you feel the presence of a friend whom you have not seen for two years is a precious experience. The experience of banging on a wall and playing Bandari music is your biggest joy of the long dragging days. I can tell you confidently that to dream and to stay half awake for 97 days means that there is nothing tastier in the world than a packet of milk and a few cucumbers that Abbas gave me a few hours before his release. It was all the talk from Abbas and the news about the heroic act of Majid [Tavakoli], the real man behind the student movement, that provided the biggest source of energy for me.

Memories of my one day visit with Kianoosh and the immortal song by Aghasi, “I am alive with your love” was with me until the last day of detention. I learned from Kianoosh how to resist and he learned from our generation how to confess to changes within us. And of course the memory of the biggest cheat in history “Abbas Eslami,” whose stories were long and beautiful and entertaining like Indian movies; and of course they were all false. But dreams only become meaningful when after 40 days suddenly a friend comes to you and asks, “Sir! Sir! what time is it?”  in an attempt to reduce the heaviness felt in the room just by a little.

And of course our nightly singing, our show of “cursing at those who live outside the country,” and the top ten nightly shows! Mehrdad taught me how to enjoy life under the worst conditions during those two weeks. Yes I am still dreaming. It is like it was all a dream. It must have been a dream when we were making playing cards using boxes from dates and we would be playing cards all night with the al-Qaeda kids.  It is as if I am dreaming when I remember how we used to play backgammon with official al-Qaeda members and the games would go on for so long that they would miss their prayer times. I must be dreaming that for 20 to 25 days I was at a place where the communist song ‘The International’ was not to save human beings but the prison was internationalized itself.  Americans, Arabs, Afghans, Kurds, Canadians, and Sri Lankans were all within five meters of each other. It is as if I am dreaming that “it was all well…it was all well…the only one missing was Lenin himself!”

This must have really been a dream that on my way to court the agent sarcastically suggested to me to push a button for a beautiful lady to appear and I was dumb enough to look for the button for 15 seconds only to realize that he was teasing me! It is as if I am dreaming that I am still walking in my cell, reviewing a lifetime of memories. I have killed any regrets within myself.  I must be dreaming that I saw Heshmat [Tabarzadi].  He is the one who stood behind me like a mountain during the hardest days of my imprisonment. He is smiling at anything that is serious in life, and then invites me to a game of chess. It is as if it was all a dream when I see that the gate for the break room in ward 209 was even more popular than all the chat rooms of Yahoo!. Everyone was leaving messages for each other.

It is as if I am still dreaming that the guard came to me and said, “Foad, get your stuff.” After 97 days, for the first time I had teary eyes when I left the embrace of Heshmat and turned my back to him and left him in his corner.

It is as if I am still dreaming that I left the prison gates and all of a sudden people started screaming for joy and I was in my father’s arms. I am still dreaming. It is all a dream. The prison and its limitations gave me a gift of creativity. I still have dreams where the prison is only a tale.

First I must thank my dear parents who were like the sun and the sea. During the 97 days they gave me light and purity. I also like to thank all my friends whose names I will not list as it will be a long list. These friends were with me, despite the tall walls of Evin and did not forget me. And of course, I would like to thank all the media outlets who covered my news in any way possible.

At the end I hope there will come a day when the dreams of thousands of human beings who are among the most beautiful children of the sun and the wind will come true. They are the ones who finally proved right here on these hills of Evin that the winter will eventually come to an end and the spring will blossom.

But until then, I will keep dreaming. Although the hosts of the feast see Evin as only a dream, but me and millions of other green sprouts see it as an undeniable reality. Our dreams will become reality and their prisons will become a tale.
Saturday
Mar132010

The Latest from Iran (13 March): Settling In

2250 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz has published a list of 192 detainees in Section 240 of Evin Prison. Activists have noted that the list is incomplete.

2240 GMT: Human Rights --- The Regime's Breakdown Strategy. But if the Iranian Government on the one hand is offering release from prison if detainees (including a number of prominent journalists and political activists) are silenced, it is also moving aggressively to break apart the human rights movement.

NEW Iran Special: Zahra Rahnavard on Women’s Rights and The Green Movement
NEW Iran: The Opposition’s New PR Campaign in the US
NEW Iran Analysis: Rafsanjani’s “Finger in the Dike” Strategy
UPDATED Iran Document: The Hardliners’ Project — Full Text (Bahavar)
Iran: An Opening Thought on the Disconnection in Washington
Video: “Iran at a Crossroads” Conference (10 March)
The Latest from Iran (12 March): Assessments


The propaganda strategy of tarnishing human rights activists has been re-doubled tonight with Kayhan joining Fars in declaring that 25-30 activists have been arrested because they serve as "cover" for the Mujahedin-e-Khalq and US-sponsored cyber-warfare.


Human Rights Activists in Iran's websites are still hacked and redirected to gerdab.ir (a website reportedly run by the Revolutionary Guard) this evening.

2230 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch --- The Regime's Release Strategy.

One of the two big stories this evening is of a flurry of releases from Evin Prison. According to BBC Persian, prominent journalists Lili Farhadpour, Vahid Pourostad and Somayyeh Momeni have been released, all on personal bail (someone else is ready to go to jail if the terms of bail are broken) or small monetary bails. However, other prominent reporters such as Akbar Montajabi, Ehsan Mehrabi and Emad Baghi, are still behind bars.

An EA source also reports that Iranian-American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, who had been imprisoned for 15 years, has been released. The terms are unknown.

1810 GMT: Cyber-War on Human Rights. Ahmad Batebi, a spokesman for Human Rights in Iran, confirms that all HRA websites have been hacked and visitors redirected to the regime's "cyber-war" site gerdab.ir.

1800 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. While his ally Hassan Rohani attacks the Government (see 1340 GMT), Hashemi Rafsanjani continues his political balancing act with a statement that students should not remain silent in political matters but should communicate their demands in a “logical” manner in order to achieve reform.

Rafsanjani advised students to evaluate the current situation so they did not create excuses for people who are trying to use "security" as pretext to take control of society. He expalined added, “The atmosphere needs to remain logical and wise...[so those who] are expressing good ideas will ultimately triumph.” Students should speak in a manner so their enemies could not “take advantage” of them.

1755 GMT: The Attack on Human Rights Activists. The website of Human Rights Activists News Agency, on the same day that HRA was accused of being a cover group for terrorism and cyber-warfare (see 1735 GMT), has been hacked by Iranian authorities. The site re-directs to gerdab.ir, which activists claim is a location which tracks its visitors.


1750 GMT: Football and Politics. The latest YouTube video claiming that football has been used as a vehicle for protest comes from a match in Tabriz. Confirmation of the slogan being chanted by the crowd would be appreciated.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nH1rP-f90Hw&feature=youtu.be&a[/youtube]

1735 GMT: Propaganda (or Worse) Item of Day. Fars News has claimed that Human Rights Activists in Iran is a cover group for the "terrorist" Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MKO) with links to the US Government in a cyber-war against Iran. Naming (in other words, targeting) some of the members, Fars claims that 30 people who provided anti-filtering software have been arrested. It adds that Iranian authorities have asked Interpol to arrest HRA members outside Iran.

1730 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Azar Mansouri, a senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been sentenced to three years in prison. She was convicted of "disturbing public order while participating in gatherings, issuing propaganda against the regime, spreading lies and plotting to harm national security".

1340 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (and This is Definitely Worth Watching). Tehran Times have now posted an English version of Rafsanjani ally Hassan Rohani's attack on the Government (0940 GMT) and, even in translation, it is striking:

*Speaking at a ceremony to mark the first death anniversary of the late Imam Khomeini’s wife, Rohani...said, “We should not allow a group to make attempts to eliminate another group.”

Interpretation: The Government should back off attempts to "break" or contain Rafsanjani through pressure on his family. Could Rohani be also be warning against an attempt to break reformist leaders?

*It should not be allowed that some elements dare to make every improper and derogatory remarks against Imam’s household and companions, he emphasized.

Interpretation: Stop attacking Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the Imam's grandson, who has been critical of the Government and supportive of the opposition.

*The cleric added some figures believe that the country can be governed by a particular group, but according to Imam’s teachings all people should be engaged.

Interpretation: If a Government is not legitimate, then....

*He also noted that Imam used to attach high importance to the people’s votes and even put the name of the Islamic Republic to the vote.

Interpretation: Well, in the context of June 2009 and "Where is My Vote?", what would you think?

If Rohani is speaking on behalf of Rafsanjani, this is a powerful signal that the former President is now going to let Ahmadinejad rest easy.

1300 GMT: Iran Nuke Update --- Larijani Yes, Ahmadinejad No. You really can't get much more blatant than this from Khabar Online:
Iran's Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani paid his last foreign visit in the current Iranian year to Japan. As he earlier has made notable diplomatic achievements through his trips, many local analysts believe the diplomacy adopted by Parliament Speaker reveals the flops and drawbacks of governmental diplomacy.

Larijani's diplomacy consisted of putting forth the proposal for Japan to serve as the 3rd country in a deal to enrich Iran's uranium overseas.

1250 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kurdish writer Susan Mohammadkhani Ghiasvand has been arrested at her home in Karaj.


1245 GMT: Student Protests. Students at Mazandaran University have carried out a two-day hunger strike to protest pressure from university officials. About 15 students had been summoned by the university's disciplinary committee.

1230 GMT: Economy Watch. Opponents of the Ahmadinejad economic strategy are warning that workers' "real wages" will drop 50% in this Iranian year. Labour organisations are demanding a guaranteed minimum wage.

1215 GMT: Women's Rights and the Green Movement. We have posted an extensive, illuminating interview with Zahra Rahnavard: "-It is impossible to expect that the general political movement — in this case, the Green Movement — will be able to successfully eliminate inequality and violence against women without help from an established and independent women’s movement."

1010 GMT: Qalibaf Attacks. An interesting intervention from Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who has kept a low profile but has still been linked to an anti-Ahmadinejad group within the conservatives. In an interview, he has pronounced that Iran has "no time for errors" because "for 14 months no serious work has been done in this country". Qalibaf say dissidents should be invited to share revolutionary goals through hard work.

0940 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Hassan Rohani, a member of the Expediency Council and an ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has  sharply attacked the Government. He said some people want to govern the country with a gang, but Iranians should not allow society to fall into superstition and petrification.

0930 GMT: Rafsanjani Blackout? Rah-e-Sabz has published what it claims is a memorandum from management of the Islamic Republic News Agency, ordering staff not to publish the image of Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0830 GMT: Parliament Slaps Down Ahmadinejad? Have to admit that I missed this while I was on the road....

The latest chapter on the battle over the President's budget has been written over Ahmadinejad's insistence on being able to spend $40 billion of the savings from his subsidy reform plan; Parliament had authorised only $20 billion.

The week began with a meeting between Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani and the Supreme Leader, a day after Ahmadinejad requested Khamenei's help. It ended yesterday when the President showed up at the Majlis to make a speech (he has done this before in the post-election crisis, even though it is a technical violation of Parliamentary rules). Ahmadinejad insisted, “I don’t believe in inflation, and inflation will decrease next year.”

The speech and the President's personal lobbying were not enough: the Parliament voted 111-105 against the $40 billion proposal.

0825 GMT: We've posted a separate entry on what appears to be a new push by Iranian opposition leaders, through representatives, to sway US political opinion.

0745 GMT: Rumour of Day - Khamenei and Ahmadinejad Split? Tehran Bureau reports the claim of "a senior aide to opposition cleric Mehdi Karroubi that Iran's supreme leader has cooled his support for president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad". The assertion was made to journalists at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Friday.

Beyond the headline, it's not much of a story. The senior aide "who worked with [Karroubi] for more than 25 years" is not actually in Iran but living in exile (while he is anonymous in the TB story, skilled Iran-watchers will identify him easily). The claim --- at least as reported in the article --- has no specific evidence but echoes a number of points (such as the incident over Ahmadinejad's close ally Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai) that we have noted since last summer.

What is far more significant is that this is a renewed Green Movement push to get support in the US. Putting forth the vision of a Khamenei-Ahmadinejad rift tries to shift a US Government which is based solely on "engagement"; it may even accept that Washington can work with the Supreme Leader while boycotting the President.

Even more important, but tucked away in the TB story, is this assertion from the senior aide: "The end goal is to have transparent, free and fair elections....Once that happens, you can be certain the Iranian people will elect [a president] who will secure peaceful and friendly relations with the world."

Last October, when a senior aide to Karroubi appeared at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, US journalists criticised the Green Movement's speaker for refusing to declare acceptance of Israel and renunciation of Iran's nuclear programme. In this article, no mention of the Israelis or the Bomb and thus no cause for a dismissal of the Greens.

Instead, the senior aide said that the Obama Administration's nuclear-first approach, at the expense of ignoring Iran's human rights violations, is "exactly what Ahmadinejad wants....If the U.S. reverses this approach and focuses on pressuring Iran for its human rights abuses...this is what the Iranian government fears most." he said.

And another point to notice:
Karroubi's aide recommended the use of "smart sanctions", targeted financial sanctions against members of the Revolutionary Guard. "For such sanctions to be truly 'smart', we need only to look at the multitude of companies set up in Dubai in the past 3-5 years," he said, hinting that much of import traffic to Iran from the UAE happened under the auspices of the Guards....

"As an Iranian, I'd hate to see our citizens suffer. But even if they are hurt in the short term, whatever shortens the life of this government is in the interests of the [Iranian] people."

0720 GMT: A US Rights-Based Strategy? While the panellists at Wednesday's NIAC conference were all focused on a nuclear-first approach to Iran (and I haven't forgotten that I owe you an analysis of the event), there are signs that the US Government is pursuing a more nuanced strategy.

On Friday, State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley issued a statement of Washington's "increasing concern" about Iran's "ongoing persecution" of religious minorities, including Baha'is, and called on Tehran to protect human rights at home.

Crowley noted that at least 25 Baha'is have been detained recently and as many as 60 are now imprisoned in Iran "solely on the basis of their religious beliefs". He also asserted that Iranian authorities had detained more than a dozen Christians, "some of whom are being held in custody without substantiated charges".

Crowley's statement follows Thursday's State Department release ofits annual review of human rights conditions around the world, which including a sharply-worded section on Iran. The report claimed Iran is continuing to restrict freedom of expression and assembly, with 70 people killed and 4,000 more detained since June 2009.

0710 GMT: After five days on the road, a chance to catch breath and review the latest in Iran....

We begin with a separate analysis, as Masoud Shafaee considers the manoeuvres of Hashemi Rafsanjani: "While Rafsanjani’s current primary concern may be preventing Ahmadinejad from tearing Iran’s already-polarized political landscape asunder, that may in time prove to be lead to his grander scheme: he was the boy who saved the city from ruin."

A new website publishes (in Persian) details of 109 victims of post-election conflict.

An open letter by activists calls for immediate assistance for more than 5000 Iranian refugees displaced by the post-election crisis and living in Turkey.
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