Iran: An Opening Thought on the Disconnection in Washington

Still travelling this morning, with academic duties in Liverpool. I'm learning from the discussion on gender issues in a separate entry, and I'm thinking through my impressions of the view from Washington of the Iran crisis, not only from the NIAC conference but from other conversations and observations.

I'll try to write the analysis for Saturday, but my primary impression is of the disconnection between events inside Iran and how the best American analysts are approaching the situation. There can be a lengthy, engaging conversation about all the complexities of the post-election conflict --- about the quest for legitimacy and about the demands for rights, about the role of students, youth, and labour, about "leadership" and "grassroots" --- but all of that evaporates when the topic turns to "What Should the US Do?"

At that point, the two-clock metaphor takes it central place: the "nuclear clock" and the "democracy clock". Except no one pays attention to the democracy clock; it's all about the supposed ticking of the nuclear clock (even if, as one of the best US analysts noted, that clock is not real but illusory, given the limits on Iran's nuclear progress). And so once more, "Iran" is reduced to the nuclear matter, with geopolitical buttresses such as Israel, Afghanistan, and Iraq, and "Iranians" become the Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad, and those who may or may not negotiate a deal with Washington.

The Latest from Iran (11 March): Marathon

1910 GMT: Reuters has picked up Zahra Rahnavard's latest interview, highlighting the line, "I have said many times that this government is illegitimate...but because the government claims to be legitimate, it has to carry out its duties."

1900 GMT: From Washington With... ? We've posted the video of yesterday's "Iran at A Crossroads" conference.

NEW Video: “Iran at a Crossroads” Conference (10 March)
NEW Iran: Gender Issues and the Green Movement
Iran Document: The Hardliners’ Project (Bahavar)
Iran Interview: Habibollah Peyman “Change Through Social Awareness
The Latest from Iran (10 March): The View from Washington

1855 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Readers have rightly noted an apparent lapse in our coverage of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. The reformist daily Bahar claimed on Wednesday that, in a clear sign of reconciliation with the regime, Rafsanjani would soon lead Friday Prayers in Tehran. (He has not done so since his 17 July address, which was a catalysts for demonstrations against the Government.)



I saw the story, which was picked up by the Babylon and Beyond blog of the Los Angeles Times, but decided to pass on it. It felt much more like rumour than a confirmed development.

That said, even the rumour deserves noting. Elements within the Government seem keen on establishing that Rafsanjani no longer has any issues with the leadership, so all is now politically well. So far, however, Rafsanjani has been his usual coy self, not confirming any return to the Friday Prayer slot.

1840 GMT: Rahnavard, Women's Rights, and the Green Movement. Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has given an interview to Kalemeh talking about the relationship between campaigns for women's rights and the initiatives of the Green Movement. (See our separate entry on this subject, which was posted before we read the Rahnavard interview.)

1805 GMT: From Czechoslovakia to Iran. Vaclav Havel, the playwright and activist who was instrumental in the movement that challenged the Communist regime in Czechoslovakia and then became the country's first post-Communist President, has sent a message to Iran's protesters. The occasion was the award of the Homo Homini Award by a Czech NGO to Iranian student activists Majid Tavakoli and Abdollah Momeni:

Of course all of us are interested in Iran's nuclear program and the nature of the current regime, just as we are interested in the abuses committed under the flag of Islam and whether or not the 2009 election was rigged. However, what I am most interested in are the brutal violations of human rights. I found myself in high political position thanks to peaceful public demonstrations and thanks to the students, who led them and made them happen. As a result, I have an elevated sensitivity for certain things and am deeply outraged and shocked that for participating in similar demonstrations in Iran, people are not only being sentenced to several years in prison, but are even being executed. It seems to me like an endless barbarity and I firmly believe this savagery is about to come to an end.

1745 GMT: Escape. It is being reported that student activist Ali Kantouri, recently sentenced to 15yrs in prison, has fled to Turkey.

1525 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. I think former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has taken another swipe at President Ahmadinejad but any impact may be ruled out by Rafsanjani's vagueness in expression. From Radio Zamaneh:

Akabar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Chairman of Iran’s Expediency Council stressed the role of people in governance and maintained that with the growth and spread of media, governments that do not have popular bases can not last long....

Speaking in a meeting of members of municipal councils of Tehran Province, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani said that Islam holds a special place for the role of people in the government.

He added that in democracies, parties that are triumphant in the elections act as buffers and when the elected candidates take a wrong turn, the responsibility falls on the shoulders of the parties and this way the system does not suffer.

He also criticized the policy of limiting the legal powers of city councils saying such policies only weaken the councils and reduce their ability to respond to people’s demands.

1445 GMT: Ain't Nothing Gonna Change. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reviews the Supreme Leader's pronouncement on possible electoral reform, which we noted yesterday), and sees this is a clear rejection rather than an ambiguous response.

1345 GMT: Fist-Shaking. Yet another Iranian military advance which has nothing to do whatsoever with Tehran's power politics vs. the US: Iran has started production of a surface-to-air missile.

President Ahmadinejad added rhetorical colour with the promise that people in the region "would cut (American) hands off of Persian Gulf oil".

However, in a sign that the US still wants to avoid conflict, and possibly establish co-operation, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said Iranian support for the Taliban in Afghanistan is "pretty limited".

1230 GMT: Catching Up.

I've posted a follow-up to the Washington hearing, considering the failure to answer adequately a question on gender issues and the Green Movement.

There is also an important correction: we reported yesterday, from Iranian human rights websites, that Saeed Nourmohammadi of the Islamic Iran Participation Front had been released on bail. His family say, however, that Nourmohammadi has not been freed.

Reports indicate more freeing of political prisoners. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released without bail for Iranian New Year.

Iran: Gender Issues and the Green Movement

A quick follow-up to the Washington hearing. I mis-handled a question from Maria Rohaly about gender issues yesterday. (She has rightly hauled me up on this.) I took her question as one specifically on the hijab --- primarily because that issue is so often used in Western press to represent women's concerns and because it had come up in conversations on my trips to Iran), thus missing the opportunity to say this:

Video: “Iran at a Crossroads” Conference (10 March)
The Latest from Iran (11 March): Marathon

The Green Movement is not a single movement for rights; optimally, it should be a political intersection for all of those movements. Earlier this week, coinciding with International Women's Day, women activists in Iran pointed to issues regarding the family, marriage, division of property, and economic rights. Just as the opposition faces the challenge of putting forth the concerns of the labour movement, so it must engage with these concerns.


No doubt there will be the question of the dynamic of this engagement and the current opposition calls for electoral reform and remedy of post-election abuses. In one case this weekend, Iranian female journalists declared that their first priority was the release of women detainees.

Those decisions, amongst others, are for the movement inside Iran. Yet Maria Rohaly was right to put forth the point that political tactics should not mean a deferral of these concerns.

Earlier in the morning, I asserted that the Green Movement is simply an umbrella term for a wide range of opposition groups and their aspirations and concerns. In the case of gender issues, as well as others, that umbrella should always protect those aspirations and concerns and never cover them up.

In this, as in so much about Iran, I am a student. I was fortunate to go to Tehran just as the first Woem's Studies programmes were being established, and I have been fortunate to learn from numerous colleagues and friends since then. There is a Scarf Movement, but there are also campaigns to convert the Islamic Republic's achievements on literacy and access of women to higher education into equality in the workplace as well as the home. There is serious discussion, as Maria Rohaly, about the acquisition of rights given a Constitution that many see as a constraint on, rather than a vehicle for, justice and fairness.

At the end of the day, I think I have to acknowledge that I have much more learning to do. I hope, however, that the recognition of the issue points --- as so much has in these last nine months --- to the ongoing development of the Green Movement.

The Latest from Iran (10 March): The View from Washington

2305 GMT: Back on the Road Again. Off for flight to UK and work in Liverpool so will be quiet for a while. Thanks to everyone for backing up EA on an eventful day.

2300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reports that student activist and weblog writer Fouad Shams has been released from prison after 96 days. Saeed Nourmohammadi, a member of the youth branch of the Islamic Iran Participation Front has been freed after 4 1/2 months in detention.

NEW Iran Interview: Habibollah Peyman “Change Through Social Awareness”
Iran Analysis: Corruption Within the Government?
The Latest from Iran (9 March): Political Acts

2255 GMT: Maintaining Control. Radio Zamaneh headlines, "Iran's Supreme Leader May Approve Changes to Electoral Policies", but the more you read, the more this is an assertion of Khamenei's authority rather than reform.

Meeting members of the Assembly of Experts, the Supreme Leader said that he will approve the changes in “general policies of the elections” under discussion in the Expediency Council, headed by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

However, Khamenei added that the opinion of the Expediency Council regarding election policies is “debatable”, and once he is informed of their decision, he will enforce what he deems necessary. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the Council's moves for change.....


2240 GMT: Economy Watch. It's not the headlines over the sanctions that should be garnering attention; instead, keep an eye on the companies ceasing business with Iran.

Royal Dutch Shell has announced that it has stopped selling gasoline/petrol to Iran which, despite its oil reserves, is dependent on imports to meet domestic demand. Shell still receives revenues from an oilfield deal completed in 2005. (The New York Times also reports that Shell "has a natural gas development in the works" but --- and here is where a Washington conference comes in useful --- informed insiders say there is little likelihood of the project moving ahead in the foreseeable future.)

Ingersoll-Rand, a manufactuer of air compressors and cooling systems, has also said that it will no longer allow its foreign subsidiaries to sell parts or products to Iran.

2230 GMT: More In-Fighting. Kayhan editor Hossein Shariatmadari, in an editorial “Outrageous Overstatement”, has gone after Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai for his recent “base,” “hyperbolic”, and “pompous” remarks. Shariatmadari accused Rahim-Mashai of seeking to undermine the presidency, distort the principle of velayat-e-faqih (clerical authority), and cause rifts among the principlists.

2225 GMT: Watch This Closely. Earlier this week Mr Verde picked up on the challenge of the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, that he was going to root out corruption in the Government and punish those responsible, including a high-ranking official.

Well, Sadegh's got back-up from the Parliament that his brother Ali heads:

A majority of Iranian lawmakers have asked Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani to decisively deal with the case of a major ring of corrupt government employees.

Larijani announced on Sunday that the judicial system had arrested 11 members of a ring of corrupt employees who embezzled millions of dollars by forging government documents.

Ayatollah Larijani stated that 11 key members of the ring have been arrested and all of them have made confessions.

In a letter sent to the Judiciary chief on Wednesday, 216 MPs also thanked him for his efforts to ensure that the members of the gang were arrested.

But the MPs said that based on the available information, the embezzlement ring has been active in more than one state organization and therefore the rest of its members should be tracked down and arrested.

They said they have been informed that certain people with high-ranking positions played more active roles in the ring than those who have been arrested.

The lawmakers urged Larijani to deal with all the members of the ring, regardless of their positions.

"Certain people with high-ranking positions"? First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, by chance?

2200 GMT: Back from a most interesting day of Iran panels. Hoping to collect thoughts for an analysis, but I'm very tired. So, for now, thanks a million to everyone for all the great support.

1300 GMT: March on Washington. I'm off to Capitol Hill to see some folks about Iran. We'll be on the road for awhile, so keep us up-to-date with developments by posting in our Comments section.

1220 GMT: We have posted the thoughts of Dr Habibollah Peyman, the head of the banned Movement of Combatant Muslims, on the strategy of the Green Movement.

1115 GMT: Kiarostami Speaks Out. The prominent Iranian director Abbas Kiarostami has published an open letter in a Tehran newspaper calling for the release of Jafar Panahi and Mahmoud Rasoulof, fellow directors who were detained last week.

Kiarostami has also sent an English translation thorough a friend to The New York Times, which prints the text.

1105 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Persian2English summarises news of a series of releases on bail:

Emad Bahavar, member of reformist group Nehzat-e Azadi [Freedom Movement of Iran] , and Yashar Darolshafa, a student activist, were released last night.

Political activist Mehrdad Rahimi was released last night after posting a $70,000 bail. Rahimi, who was arrested over two months ago, was under pressure to submit to confessions on live television.

Political activist Hamideh Ghasemi, journalist Ahmad Jalali Farahani, and Saleh Noghrekar were also released after a month in prison.

Saleh Noghrekar is the nephew of opposition leader, Zahra Rahnavard. He was released on a $50,000 bail.

Mehdi Amizesh, children’s rights activist, was also released on bail after two months in prison.

1055 GMT: Mahmoud Knocks, K arzai Not at Home. Here is the not-so-dramatic of the saga of President Ahmadinejad saying he would go to Afghanistan on Monday (Sunday), Ahmadinejad not going to Afghanistan (Monday), Ahmadinejad saying "oh, I meant Wednesday" (Tuesday).

Well, the good news is that the President finally got to see Kabul's sights, and Hamid Karzai is one of them. Initial reports indicated that the Afghanistan President was not at home, but the two men finally showed up at a press conference.

With US Secretary of Defense Gates still in Afghanistan --- his visit with Karzai on Monday was the likely reason for the postponement of Ahmadinejad's trip --- the Iranian President took a swipe at Washington, "I believe that they themselves are playing a double game. They themselves created terrorists and now they're saying that they are fighting terrorists." Gates had put out the "double game" charge against Tehran earlier in the week.

1045 GMT: I Don't Even Like the Guy. If Jahan News was trying to undermine Mehdi Karroubi with the claim that he was very nice to Saeed Mortazavi, the Ahmadinejad aide who has been blamed for the post-election abuses at Kahrizak, the effort does not appear to have worked. Karroubi hasn't reacted, but Mortazavi is more than a bit upset. His office put out this statement:

Mr. Mortazavi attended a memorial service held for the mother of his colleague in Nour Mosque on Saturday....Mr. Mehdi Karroubi was present at the beginning of the ceremony and left approximately half an hour before Mr. Mortazavi arrived. Therefore, Mr. Karroubi and Mortazavi never encountered each other.

It is not clear what the intentions of this website was in reporting the warm exchange of pleasantries and kisses between these two individuals [Karroubi, Mortazavi]. The intention to disseminate such false news reports is also a matter to reflect upon.

The son of Mr. Karroubi was one of the suspects the former Tehran prosecutor [Mortazavi] dealt with and the Etemade Melli newspaper owned by Mr. Karroubi was banned by him therefore such fabricated stories aimed at influencing public opinion will have no success.

0450 GMT: We're off for some downtime before the Wednesday conference. Back in a few hours.

0435 GMT: The War on Football. Yesterday we noted that Iranian authorities had issued a warning, for an unspecified reason, to a football publication.

Well, here's an even more serious football story from Iran Human Rights Voice:

Football journalist Abdollah Sadoughi was arrested in the city of Tabriz, north-west Iran, on 18 January, after publishing a poster supporting the city’s Traktor Sazi football team. He is held without charge at Tabriz prison, and is on hunger strike in protest at what he considers to be his baseless detention....

Abdollah Sadoughi, aged 33, a member of Iran’s Azerbaijani minority, writes for the Iranian publications Goal, Corner and Khosh Khabar (Good News). He supports Tabriz’s Traktor Sazi football team. The authorities have accused him of acts “against national security” including supporting “Pan-Turkism” for publishing posters, one of which says, in the Azerbaijani Turkic language, “All of Azerbaijan feels pride with you”, alongside an image of the football team. Abdollah Sadoughi maintains he had permission from the relevant authorities to print posters [but] Azerbaijani Turkic is not recognized as an official language in Iran....

In late February, Abdollah Sadoughi began a hunger strike. According to media reports, soon after starting his hunger strike he was transferred to solitary confinement and held in filthy conditions, and then moved to a cell with criminal convicts. On 2 March 2010, having lost considerable weight and suffering from various medical problems, he was transferred to the clinic within Tabriz prison. Abdollah Sadoughi has been able to meet his lawyer and his family, most recently on 6 March, when he said he would continue his hunger strike until he is released or brought before a court.

0430 GMT: Does the Movement Live? Mohammad Sadeghi offers a spirited response to those who claimed 22 Bahman (11 February) marked the end of the Green Movement:

Any measure of the movement's success must focus on the incredible changes brought about in Iran thus far, rather than the outcome of specific tactics. Conversations on the proper role of government, which would have been unthinkable less than a year ago, are now commonplace throughout the country. The government is constantly on the defensive on issues ranging from sexual abuse in prisons to its failed economic policies. Although the regime maintains tight control over all levers of power in society -- police and security forces, the media, the oil industry, etc. -- its popular support has been steadily slipping since June's presidential election. These changes have taken place because of the millions of Iranians who see it as their duty to peacefully protest in the streets, document the regime's brutality, and spread this documentation around the world. In other words, the movement owes its greatest successes to the horizontal organization and innovative use of technology that [critics are] so quick to dismiss.

0315 GMT: Now in place in Washington for Wednesday's open hearing on Iran and US-Iran relations. Will get an insider's look later today but already one point of note has emerged: the Ali Larijani mission to Japan for a possible uranium enrichment deal should be taken seriously.

That impression is accompanied by signals from Iranian state media of confidence that the push for tougher international sanctions on Tehran will fail. Under the headline, "Anti-Iran plot failing, Israeli envoy laments", Press TV carries Agence France Presse's quotation from Israeli Ambassador to the UN Gabriela Shalev: "The chances now seem grim regarding sanctions that will be crippling." Shalev said Russia and China "are still looking to the diplomatic track" and appear reluctant to back a new round of sanctions.

Back in Iran, the trial of 12 police officers charged with post-election abuses in Kahrizak Prison has begun.

The Latest from Iran (9 March): Political Acts

1500 GMT: But Mahmoud, What If No One's Home? Here's a better story than the Khatami rumour....

On Monday President Ahmadinejad was totally disrespected when Afghan President Hamid Karzai who told Mahmoud to stay home (US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was suddenly in town, and Americans and Iranians at the same time in Kabul just wouldn't do). So Iranian state media carried the story that Ahmadinejad's office had not said "Monday" but "this week". The meeting with Karzai would now be on Wednesday.

Which would be fine except Karzai's people are reportedly saying that the Afghan President will be in Pakistan on Wednesday.

So what's up? Is it a three-way get-together in Islamabad or will Ahmadinejad's office have to clarify "not this week, next week".

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The Latest from Iran (8 March): Foreign Affairs

1445 GMT: Khatami Watch. Yes, we have read the rumours that former President Mohammad Khatami has been barred from leaving Iran. The source is Fars News, so status remains at rumour or disinformation --- Khatami's camp have denied the report.



1430 GMT: Human Rights Front. Student activists Abdollah Momeni and Majid Tavakoli, are this year's recipients of the Homo Homini Award, awarded annually by the Czech-based People in Need "in recognition of a dedication to the promotion of human rights, democracy, and nonviolent solutions to political conflicts".

Momeni was released this week on $800,000 bail after more than six months in jail, including reportedly about 100 days in solitary confinement. Iranian He has received a six-year jail sentence, which is being appealed.

Tavakoli was arrested at the 7 December National Student Day demonstrations. The regime attempted to humiliate him by disseminating photographs of him dressed in hijab.

1230 GMT: Dangerous Papers (cont.). An Iranian activist reports the press board's warning was handed out to the reformist publication Bahar for carrying an article about the mysterious changing colours of the Iranian flag.

1210 GMT: Newsflash! Even Football Can Be Dangerous. Mehr News Agency reports that Iran's press supervisory board has warned 17 publications over alleged breaches of media regulations.

Mohammad Ali Ramin, the Deputy Minister of Culture who has been widely criticised for his hard line against the media, said the publications were "not committed to journalistic duties, breached media regulations, printed superficial materials, and propagated materialism".

The leading reformist daily, Bahar (Spring), is accused of having published "rumours and lies".

The other 16 journals warned were: Nasl Emrouz, Banu Shargi, Ayne Zendegi, Payamavar, Sepidar, Pishkhan, Zendegi Irani, Medad Rangi, Zendegi Edeal, Ruiesh, Kohenoor, Tohid, Rahe Zendegi, Sinamaye Emrouz, Chelcheragh, and Football.

1150 GMT: The Nuclear Deal. For the second day in a row, Iran's Foreign Ministry has signalled that the "third-party enrichment" option --- which resurfaced during Ali Larijani's recent trip to Japan --- is still alive. Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Tuesday that Iran's "priority is to obtain fuel" for a Tehran medical research reactor.

Mehmanparast assured, "If the [International Atomic Energy] Agency suggests a country in possession of the 20-percent enriched fuel, we are ready to buy [the fuel]. Besides, if there are countries ready for a swap which will fulfill our conditions, we are ready; otherwise, we will produce the fuel [ourselves]."

1135 GMT: Women's Day (cont.). The association of Iranian female journalists, RUZA, has issued a declaration stating that release of imprisoned women is its first goal.

Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, met women's organisations yesterday, commemorating Neda and other victims of post-election conflict.

1130 GMT: One to Watch? There has been an increase in tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran, with protests in front of the Azeri Embassy in Tabriz and the burning of the Azeri flag. Good relations between Azerbaijan and Israel have been mentioned as a possible cause.

1120 GMT: Keeping the Universities in Line. Is the regime getting nervous about renewed public resistance at the universities? First, Minister of Higher Education Kamran Daneshjoo issued a warning to "deviant professors". Now Revolutionary Guard commander Rahim Savafi has declared that the universities are "empty" of elites faithful to the Supreme Leader and Constitution.

0930 GMT: Still Protesting. While university demonstrations have been muted since December, that does not mean that dissent has been quelled. A group of Tehran University students has put out the message: "If 'their' power relies on their guns, ours is that we are countless."

0920 GMT: Today's Media Head-for-the-Hills Moment. The New York Times is back to its red alert over Iran's nuclear programme, this time with a lengthy piece on the country's uranium enrichment process.

To be fair to reporter William Broad, his article is mainly an overview of both the possibilities and the limitations of Iran's nuclear programme. However, whoever wrote the headline missed the subtleties and/or preferred Panic Mode, "For Iran, Enriching Uranium Only Gets Easier".

0915 GMT: Here's some political theatre for you. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has made a dramatic intervention with his claim of high-level embezzlement and corruption within the Government. Mr Verde has an analysis.

0820 GMT: Catching Up With the Political Poses and Other News.

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has hurled the label of "thugocracy", used by US General David Petraeus in a Sunday interview, back at the "goons" of the American Government: "It is understandable that they hate people with the knowledge of the region joining us today, so they use offensive words."

Juan Cole has an interesting analysis of President Ahmadinejad's declaration that the US Government created the "lie" of 9-11 to support its international plans, going farther into Ahmadinejad's religious beliefs:

Not only is Ahmadinejad the Iranian equivalent of a truther, he is also the mirror image of the Christian Zionists. That brand of evangelicals in the US believes that the establishment of Israel throughout geographical Palestine, i.e. the complete annexation of the West Bank and perhaps the expulsion of its Palestinian residents, will hasten the return of Christ.

Ahmadinejad holds the opposite. It is in his view the collapse of what he calls the Zionist regime and the emergence of a state for all Palestinians, whether Jewish, Christian or Muslim, that will provoke the Promised One to come. In Shiite Islam, the promised one is the return of the 12th Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, the lineal descendant of the Prophet Muhammad.