The Latest from Iran (19 March): Untamed?

2120 GMT: Mahmoud Goes to the Country? OK, it's not just Internet chatter. EA readers bring me up to speed: in a televised statement on Friday night, President Ahmadinejad set out the possibility of a referendum on his proposal to control $40 billion from subsidy reductions (the Parliament only gave him $20 billion).

And Ahmadinejad wasn't pulling punches: he said that his "conservative" opponents in Parliament were verging on "treason" with exaggerated statements of the inflationary potential of his plan. Fortunately, he reassured, their economic estimates were not correct.

NEW Iran: Ethnic Minorities and the Green Movement (Ghajar)
NEW Iran Academic Question: Suspending North American Studies?
Latest Iran Video: Mousavi’s and Rahnavard’s New Year Messages (18 March)
Iran: Reading Mousavi & Karroubi “The Fight Will Continue” (Shahryar)
Iran & the US: The Missed Nuclear Deal (Slavin)
The Latest from Iran (18 March): Uranium Distractions

2110 GMT: Containing the Poet. Another story to pick up --- National Public Radio has a profile of 82-year-old Simin Behbahani, the poet who is so dangerous that Iranian authorities seized her passport as she was about to board a flight for an awards ceremony in Paris.


2100 GMT: Back from a movie break. (Iran as Wonderland? Discuss.) Little happening this evening, though there is Internet chatter that Ahmadinejad may go to the country for a referendum on his subsidy reform proposals.

The break is useful to pick up on a couple of important stories. Persian2English has posted an English translation of the Committee on Human Rights Reporters statement of 17 March, responding to the regime's efforts to break human rights activists with charges of their role in US-backed "cyber-warfare":

Exaggerated claims that human rights activists are connected to foreign or political organizations have been repeatedly disseminated by Tehran’s prosecutor, domestic and military media, intelligence interrogators, and internet bandits. No plausible or credible evidence has been introduced to back their accusations of blatant lies....

The Committee of Human Rights Reporters has indicated in their mission statement, in interviews, and in their official announcements that their activities are limited to human rights issues, and they are proud of their work.

1615 GMT: And Via Satellite. European Union ambassadors have declared in Brussels that the EU is determined to end Iran's "unacceptable" jamming of satellite broadcasting and Internet censorship: "The EU calls on the Iranian authorities to stop the jamming of satellite broadcasting and Internet censorship and to put an end to this electronic interference immediately."

1520 GMT: Internet Diplomacy? Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in an interview with Bloomberg, has highlighted the US Government's support of initiatives to get around Iranian restrictions on Internet access.

Clinton declared, “We’re doing a lot, let me just put it at that, because we think it is in the interests of American values and American strategic concerns to make sure that people have a chance to know what is going on outside of Iran." She claimed that a license had been issued to an (unnamed) company to boost access. Clinton added:

I’m sure that the Iranian authorities will do what they can to block any move that we make, so it’s like a chess game. We’ll go back and make another move, because we think we owe it to the Iranians, particularly during this period when there is so much at stake

1430 GMT: The President and the Clerics. An EA reader brings up to speed on the Ahmadinejad visit to Qom: Khabar Online has pictures of the President with Ayatollahs Mesbah Yazdi, Nouri-Hamedani and Jafar Sobhani, as well as a group shot.

Ahmadinejad's deputy for religious affairs claims that the meeting's atmosphere was good with the President "convincingly" answering some complaints from the clerics. The marjas brought up the people’s income problems, which should be solved, and cultural matters. AN promised to deal with these and also to transform Qom into the most beautiful town of the country.

Another meeting is planned with Jame’eye Modarressin (Association of the Teachers and Researchers of Qom).

1230 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human Rights Activists in Iran have issued a list of 2560 detainees for the Iranian Year 1388 (March 2009-March 2010). The large majority were arrested after the election.

0855 GMT:  Political Prisoner Watch. Philosophy student Ali Moazzami has been released on bail; however, other detainees such as journalist Emadeddin Baghi remain behind bars for Nowruz.

0845 GMT: Remembering. Mourners gathered yesterday at the graves of post-election martyrs, placing flowers and cards.

In front of Evin Prison, relatives gathered to demand the release of detainees, including Ms Elham Ahsani, supporter of the Mothers of Mourning.

0825 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Here's the Rumour of the Day --- Islamic Republic News Agency claims Hashemi Rafsanjani flew to Kish Island to meet his son Mehdi Hashemi, who wants to return illegally to mainland Iran via Dubai.

AFP picks up on the news, which we reported last night, that Hossein Marashi, a relative of Rafsanjani's wife and an ally of the former President, has been jailed for one year for "spreading propaganda".

0820 GMT: Economy Watch. Jahangir Amuzegar offers a broad analysis of the state of Iran's economy and the problems it poses for President Ahmadinejad.

0815 GMT: Qom Absentee. Looks like one person who was not at the President's meetings with senior clerics (see 0645 GMT) was Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. Khabar Online, unsurprisingly, surmises that this is because the President was firmly told to leave Rahim-Mashai behind.

0755 GMT: On the International Front. Lots of media attention to apparent tensions in Moscow between Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her Russian hosts over Iran. The immediate focus is on whether Russia will finally help Tehran to bring the Bushehr nuclear power plant on-line (Helpful Hint: the Russians are playing a double game, trying to delay completion while publicly declaring that they will ensure Bushehr will start operations in 2010).

The wider issue --- overlooked in The New York Times summary --- is whether Russia will give public backing to an expanded sanctions programme. The dispute in Moscow moves the arrow towards "No".

0745 GMT: Taming the Internet? The New York Times highlights the ongoing battle of the opposition for access to and dissemination of information with "Iran’s Opposition Seeks More Help in Cyberwar With Government". The article highlights both the steps forward and the sizeable challenge that remains. The take-away quote from Mehdi Yahyanejad of the Persian-language news portal Balatarin:

The Islamic Republic is very efficient in limiting people’s access to these sources, and Iranian people need major help. We need some 50 percent of people to be able to access independent news sources other than the state-controlled media.

0730 GMT: Pick Your Analysis. In sharp contrast to the analyses of other "Western" observers, Scott Peterson of the Christian Science Monitor asks, "Does Iran’s most powerful man – whose official title is God’s Deputy on Earth, infallible to his ardent followers – think he is winning?"

Caution is needed here as well. Peterson's supporting evidence of "several close observers" is primarily two unnamed Iranian academics, and some of their declarations are sweeping:

[The Supreme Leader is] in triumphant mood right now. But deep down, he knows he’s lost the war of legitimacy and popularity....Deep inside –-- this is my belief –-- he does not have a very good sleep at night. He’s very angry –-- that’s what I can see in his face. The slogans they leveled against him, the image he’s got –-- he’s lost a lot of the popularity he had.

More useful may be assessments which don't rely on speculating inside Khamenei's head:

It’s almost like one voice coming out of the establishment, state-run television, all their hard-line newspapers, saying that "we managed to crush them”

At the same time, worries are clear to see. They are not in a state of panic [as] in the past, but are still on very high alert. They feel that enemies are organizing, and reformers are just pawns.

0645 GMT: We start the morning clearing away the underbrush of distorted or wayward analyses of Iran's internal situation.

Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett have written another hit piece, with weakly-supported polemic posing as analysis, claiming the death of the Green Movement.

Far more seriously (since I am not sure key circles in Washington are still paying attention to the Leveretts' repetitions), Najmeh Bozorgmehr of the Financial Times, who has been a quality front-line journalist in Iran, has carried out an examination of the opposition which gets muddled in editing. Bozorgmehr's evaluation is sharp and incisive in places, such as "The Green Movement’s leaders have changed course, publicly urging followers to stop mass demonstrations, to avoid bloodshed and to win support of other social groups, notably lower-income people." She adds, "Iranian analysts and western diplomats doubt if the regime has snuffed out the challenge of the opposition."

However, Bozorgmehr also has some loose, unsupported sentences, "Reformists concede that the intensifying radicalism of demonstrations helped Mr Ahmadinejad to shore up support." And the headlines are caricatures: the Financial Times goes for "Iran's Regime Contains Opposition", while the Irish Times creates, "Hard Line Seems to Have Tamed Iran's Green Movement".

Elsewhere, others have not been tamed. Journalist and activist Isa Saharkhiz, who has been detained for eight months, has told his family that he went on hunger strike Thursday morning and that other prisoners in Section 350 of Evin Prison will join him to protest illegal detention and inhumane conditions.

And President Ahmadinejad has tried to carry out his own taming by visiting senior clerics in Qom. The Financial Times reports that Ahmadinejad met six marja but gives no details beyond that. There is only the cryptic sentence from an analyst, "A massive lobby by the most influential authorities happened to convince the clergy to see the president."

That just raises another question: which "most influential authorities"? We are monitoring.

The Latest from Iran (18 March): Uranium Distractions

2225 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. This could be interesting --- Hossein Marashi, cousin of Hashemi Rafsanjani's wife and a Vice Secretary-General of the Kargozaran Party. has been arrested.

2220 GMT: Edward Yeranian of the Voice of America offers an analysis, "Iranian Government Releases Prisoners for Persian New Year", with contributions from EA staff.

NEW Latest Iran Video: Mousavi's and Rahnavard's New Year Messages (18 March)
NEW Iran: Reading Mousavi & Karroubi “The Fight Will Continue” (Shahryar)
NEW Iran & the US: The Missed Nuclear Deal (Slavin)
Iran Labour Front: Minimum Wage, “Unprecedent Poverty and Hunger”, and Strikes
Iran Analysis: What Does the Fire Festival Mean?
Latest Iran Video: Two Views of the Fire Festival (16 March)
UPDATED Iran Document: Mousavi Speech on “Patience and Perseverance” (15 March)
The Latest from Iran (18 March): Uranium Distractions

2215 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Women's rights activist Somaiyeh Farid was arrested on Wednesday. Farid was at Evin Prison enquiring about her husband, Hojat (Siavash) Montazeri, who was arrested on 5 March.


2145 GMT: A Ray of Light. Amidst some poor analyses today of the Iranian political situation and the Green Movement, Melody Moezzi comes to the rescue with this piece in The Huffington Post:

The arrests before Revolution Day last month (11 February) surely dissuaded many opposition protesters not already in jail from pouring into the streets and risking beatings and unlawful detentions. I personally know of several opposition activists who stayed home as a result of the intimidation, and I can't say that I blame them. Still, no matter how few or many pro-democracy demonstrators show up in the streets for Nowruz the Iranian opposition has far from died. Rather, it has merely been pushed underground, but it is germinating like a stubborn hyacinth, taking on a course and a life of its own, teeming with the sweet smell of a freedom to come.

2100 GMT: A slow evening. Only significant news that we've noted is the release of Abolhasan Darolshafaei from detention. He is the last member of the family to be freed, following the releases of daughters Banafsheh and Jamileh and nephew Yashar.

No members of the Darolshafaei family are any longer in custody, just in time for New Year festivities.

1625 GMT: We have posted the New Year's video greetings of Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, to the Iranian people.

1440 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Bahman Amoui, who has been detained since 20 June (read the letter to him from his wife, Zhila Baniyaghoub), has reportedly been released.

1415 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch: Journalist Akbar Montajabi has been released on bail. So have journalist Keyvan Samimi and Hojatoleslam Mir Ahmadizadeh.

1410 GMT: The Case for Change. Hassan Rowhani, a member of the Expediency Council and ally of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has used a long interview to discuss nuclear issues and to make the case for electoral reforms.

1355 GMT: Escape. The BBC is now reporting the story, which we carried last week, of student activist Ali Kantouri, who has fled Iran after being given a 15-year prison sentence for abduction and extortion.

1340 GMT: We have posted a special analysis by Mr Verde of the political significance of this week's Chahrshanbeh Suri (Fire Festival).

1220 GMT: On the Economic Front. Following up on our Wednesday special on the minimum wage and "unprecedented poverty and hunger"....

Six independent labor organizations have argued that the poverty line is $900 per month and asked for that to be new minimum wage. (The Government has authorised $303.) Economists at Mehr News Agency” have set the poverty line in the coming year at above $1000.

(Persian readers may also be interested in Faribors Raisdana's detailed analysis of minimum wages and labourer's poverty.)

1000 GMT: We have two specials for you this morning (and there's a third on the way). We've posted an excellent account by Barbara Slavin of the US-Iran deal on uranium enrichment that almost came off but then collapsed last autumn, and we have Josh Shahryar's analysis of the latest moves by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

0855 GMT: We're Taking Our Subsidy Bill and Going Home. The ongoing fight between the President and Parliament for control of the budget and expenditure is highlighted by a bad-tempered interview of Ahmadinejad supporter Ruhollah Hosseinian in Khabar Online.

Hosseinian declares that, since the Majlis only gave the President $20 billion of the $40 billion he wanted from subsidy reductions, Ahmadinejad should withdraw the proposal: "It's not clear which portion of the government's revenue will be channeled to other sectors by the Parliament, so I believe implementing subsidy reform bill is against our interests."

Asked how the Administration could avoid implementing a plan which has been passed by Parliament, Hosseinian replied:

Although the bill has become a law, a way must be explored to halt its execution, since enforcing this law in its current form will simply add to the problems. As the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei coordinates the interactions between state branches of the country, a method must be found to annul implementing subsidy reform bill.

0830 GMT: The Uranium Issue. An EA reader asks for clarification on the claim that Iran may be facing a crisis over uranium stock for its medical research reactor.

I am strongly influenced by the knowledge that Iran's approach to the International Atomic Energy Agency last June, which set off this round of talks over uranium enrichment, was prompted by the specific issue of isotopes for medical treatment. I have my suspicions, though no firm evidence, that the renewal of a Tehran push for a deal may also be prompted by this immediate need for 20 percent enriched uranium.

We will soon be posting an excellent investigative piece by Barbara Slavin highlighting this issue.

0605 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amnesty International is featuring the case of student activist Milad Asadi, detained without charge since 1 December.

0555 GMT: We might have been concerned with the Fire Festival and the renewed protest through the statements of prominent opposition figures (Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami), parties (Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution), and activist groups (Committee of Human Rights Reporters).

Looks like the Ahmadinejad Government wants to talk uranium, however. Iran's atomic energy agency chief, Ali Akhbar Salehi, put out the line that it was time to agree a uranium swap inside Iran. First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi insisted, "During the new year, new nuclear plants will be built and the Islamic Republic of Iran will continue with its path without allowing the arrogant powers to meddle."

But, with the US threatening more sanctions and no sign that the "West" will accept a deal where the swap occurs inside Iran, where is the hope for Tehran? No problem: "Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin has called for stronger ties...and urged closer cooperation between Iran and Russia to confront existing regional and international threats."

Better hope so. I get the sense that not only is Iran concerned about economic restrictions, primarily through the withdrawal of foreign companies and investment, but also that there may be a crisis looming over uranium for the medical research reactor.

Latest Iran Video & Translation: Mousavi's and Rahnavard's New Year Messages (18 March)

Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife Zahra Rahnavard addressing the Iranian people for Nowruz. The English translation of Mousavi's statement is from Khordaad 88, as is Rahnavard's.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1L6lpWN-Iw[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (18 March): Uranium Distractions

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCyFyU5psPc&feature=youtu.be&a[/youtube]

MOUSAVI:

In the name of God, the Compassionate and the Merciful,

The unified caravan of martyrs

I wish all of our people a Happy New Year, as we approach the green spring and this national holiday.



I will especially make note of the families of those who lost their lives while defending our independence during the [Iran-Iraq] war, the veterans, the injured, and those who suffered in any way. I should also mention the martyrs and those injured in 1388 [the year that is coming to an end], since I see their fate as connected to that of the war-time martyrs; they are all a apart of the caravan of martyrs that our country has produced over the course of history. If we have a proud country and a free nation today, it is due to their suffering and sacrifices.

Congratulating Iranians both inside Iran and abroad; [all] Iranians with a common identity

I should also pass on good wishes to Iranians from various groups, tribes, ethnicities, cultures and [political] parties; all of our people. This year, I would particularly like to mention our countrymen living abroad. Today, our people are united, and this is one of the blessings of the Green Movement. It has become so extensive, that there are people on the other side of the globe who identify themselves with the rich Iranian and Islamic cultures, strive for the glory and development of Iran and the Revolution, and try to concern themselves with the fate of their country. This is particularly true among our youth, be it inside Iran or abroad, who have sacrificed the most and who have experienced the most damage [in the events of the past year].

We should help and comfort the families who have experienced loss

As far as I have heard, the third and fourth generations of Iranians living abroad are as active as the youth inside Iran, and I would like to use this opportunity to wish a Happy New Year to them as well. The families of the martyrs and the injured have had a crucial role in our movement; our people should stay alongside these families and comfort them, particularly in these first few days of festivities.

The year that has passed

The passing year has been a special one for us all. Our people witnessed a great deal of energy and excitement in the days leading up to the election, and the beauty of it was the love and unity that you saw between people of different backgrounds and political inclinations. The election could have turned into a great festival for our people and initiated a new movement in the history of our nation. It was this movement that lead to very high voter turnout, with which you demonstrated your resolve to see [progress], change, independence, [and the authority of] freedom and justice. But, your active presence in the election was met with a reaction that prompted you to go to the streets with the common question: “Where is my vote?” The roots of this reaction go back to June 12, [election day]. It was not even 5PM when one of my main campaign headquarters was attacked. By 8PM, my central headquarters was also attacked and, before being published the next morning, the main Kalemeh Sabz headline was changed several times on orders from intelligence officials.

A response by the government unworthy of the dignity of our nation

The lack of a proper and Islamic response to the elections by the government created a negative image in the minds of our people and as a result was the root cause of many of the events that occurred in our country.  The response [by the government] to the protests was not befitting of the grandeur, liberty and pride associated with our nation. The crimes at Kahrizak prison, the atrocities at the student dormitories, the killings on the 30th of Khordad, even the 25th of Khordad and the events that followed, such as on the day of Ashura, took the people of our country by surprise.

If the challenges were political in nature, then they should have been resolved through political channels with convincing explanations to our people. This was however not the case and the responses were unfortunately also not satisfying. One of the most significant days was the 25th of Khordad when our people took to the streets in masses, transforming this day into a decisive moment in the history of our nation and a testament to the high spirit of our nation days after the elections.


What did our people desire?

Our people while chanting national and Islamic slogans came out to the streets, without creating any tension, to declare their point of view and cast their vote. We expected a [the government's] response tailored to meet the gentle spirit of our people, unfortunately, we however, witnessed a much different type of response in the events that followed which only further complicated matters.

On the 22nd of Khordad the people of Iran participated in the elections in order to determine their destiny and define the direction of their future. The events that followed the elections, however, turned into an eye opening experience for our people and our country. Our nation discovered major discrepancies and glitches that lead to the formation of a broad spectrum of new demands. These demands began with a request for a referendum on open and fair elections, and later extended to other areas. The Green movement resulted in uniting people behind the fact that all matters should be dealt with in the framework of the Constitution and this became a slogan widely accepted by the majority.

Ignoring parts of the Constitution is tantamount to rendering it meaningless

The truth is, this slogan is of significant importance to the destiny of our nation. The Constitution is a national covenant, without which there is no unity and only chaos and darkness. It consists of a set of contiguous articles and as such, ignoring or weakening one section only leads to rendering it meaningless and void in its entirety.

One must look at the constitution as a whole.  When the constitution was first written, those involved in its inception, wrote an important introduction designed to protect the integrity and continuity of the law. The articles emphasize a set of values, aspirations and demands that are integral to the constitution and cannot be separated. Now that our people have witnessed the judiciary, political, electoral, etc. problems they realize more than ever that the path to a bright future is returning to the foundation defined by our constitution, without any interference by the various political factions.

Withdrawing our demands of unconditional execution of the Constitution is an act of treason for Iran and for Islam. This is a demand that we will not abandon.

If an article in the Constitution is erroneous, the way to fix it is clear. We must amend the Constitution in accordance with public opinion and the recent state of affairs. [As of now], we do not have a free media or the freedoms outlined in the constitution. We lack free elections, where candidates are not cherry-picked, and fair competition. We do not have rights that protect the people’s privacy; rights that prevent some from searching through personal letters with self-serving ‘justification’. How can we assume to have a working system and solve our problems while the national course of action taken is against the Constitution?

We are facing many issues and difficulties in this New Year. Some of them relate to the shape that our demands are going to take. And these are rightful demands. They are a way to achieve national greatness and are a salvation for all parties on the path of developing our nation. We will persevere with these demands, and, accordingly, the coming year will be [known as] the year of persistence. We do not have the right to turn away from them. Any distraction would be an act of treason for the nation, for Islam and for the blood of our martyrs. Our Constitution was created in a sea of martyred blood. It is not something that we can lose easily and we must all return to [its principles].

Among all other things, I wish that the executive branch was at least proficient.

Besides this problem, there are others too; problems that existed before, but which are going to intensify this year, although I am wishing against it. Economic prospects for the future are not good. I am not pleased with this situation. I wish that despite all our issues,  we would have seen an outlook to solve these [non-political] troubles. But that was not so. Forecasts of economic growth for the coming year are poor. First, in addition to drops in investment, this would mean greater instances of unemployment and extensive and increasing poverty. Our middle-class is shrinking more and more as we face these problems. Second, our current [international] standing is not a pleasant one due to ambiguous policies, as well as an adventurous and inept approach [to foreign policy]. Looming upon us is a threatening situation. We have the worst possible international relations and foreign policy, and it seems that with greater sanctions we should expect [more economic pressure].

The Green Movement must expand its reach.

Faced with such a situation, the Green Movement must expand its reach to all segments of society. The Green Movement must revive the timeless social and Islamic principle of inclusion. We must lend a hand to neighbors and neighborhoods both near and far, through job creation and other forms of interaction.

Let us live more modestly; let us help our fellow men and women; let us reduce the weight of people’s problems



Let us make our lives more modest and, by foregoing unnecessary formalities, make more room to think about how to reduce the load of problems that people appear to have. Let us help and attend to the families of the martyrs and those who have been injured—the just prophet looks favorably upon spending time with these families. Moreover, doing this will rekindle the nation’s hope.

The path that we cannot avoid



I believe that the path to realizing the greatness of our nation follows this route and, without a doubt, the nation understands that there is no other alternative. Thus, the nation is hopeful in following this path. God-willing,  we will reach our distinct goals, since our demands are not extravagant by any standards. We demand a fair and healthy election—an election where being on the ticket does not imply having been vetted and selected by a few in power. That kind of election—the kind that we have been having up until now—does not reflect the appropriate respect towards a nation as dignified as Iran. The Iranian nation is great, progressive, and civilized. It should not be treated like a nation of uncivilized, ignorant people, for whom matters need to be decided because they cannot be trusted to run their own affairs and choose their own government properly. I ask that the government respect freedom of speech and freedom of the press so that the nation’s thoughts and ideas are able to flow freely and publicly. I am certain that the manifestation of these thoughts will be Islamic. Only then will we see a productive and progressive Iran brimming with justice and freedom. We must not be afraid to allow this to happen. In fact, we must truly fear the consequences of not allowing this to happen. We must truly be afraid of turning our backs on the demands of the people.

I will finish with a prayer from Imam Khomeini—a prayer that is relevant to our situation today:

O Lord, be watchful of our martyrs and let them rest close to your kindness and compassion. Heal our injured and our dead, and lead those who have been captured by the enemy back to the bleeding hearts of their families. O Lord, in your kindness, grant us patience and success.

---

RAHNAVARD: We wish our countrymen, inside and outside the country, no matter where they may be, a happy Norouz. Norouz, this ancient, eternal holiday.

[New Year prayer] O savior of hearts and sights, guide of night and day, you who transform our being and our condition, transform me to the very best.]

How strange that this ancient ceremony has been so elegantly woven with an Islamic narrative, and not only with a beautiful Islamic narrative, but with the modern society we live in today, and at a time when the green movement has engraved its own beautiful signature on it.

Transform me to the very best is the very wish of the green movement. The green movement wants to work for the betterment of its own condition, and the circumstances of its nation. And evolution in any effort is a beautiful symmetry. The Green Movement is not a movement that works to overthrow. It is a movement that seeks evolution, an evolution from the status quo to a better circumstance. But allow Hafez to light the way, and let us use the trust we have in him every day of our lives:

To thy complain, love reacheth, if like Hafez
Thou recite the Koran with the fourteen traditions

These fourteen traditions, of which Hafez speaks, and has united with love, tells us that it is something in which we can trust. It is not fortune telling, I don’t believe in fortune telling, and the Holy Koran states: “you are what you are” – do not put the responsibility on someone else’s shoulders. Rather, we take inspiration from him:

Arrived the glad tidings that grief’s time shall not remain:
Like that remained not; like this shall not remain.

Although, I am, in the Beloved’s sight, become dusty and despicable;
Honored like this, the watcher shall not remain.

Since the veil-holder striketh all with the sword,
Dweller of the sacred territory, a person shall not remain.

Of the picture, good or bad, is what room for thanks or for lament
When, on the page of existence, the writing shall not remain?

O candle! reckon union with the moth of a great gain;
For till dawn, this commerce shall not remain*

Dear Hafez, who is our trusted guide on those cold, winter nights and in celebrations, when we are pained and sad and when we are joyous, who “to our complain, love reacheth” – we are encouraged to love one another. We have said before too that the Green Movement is an enemy to no one, it only has a vision and a demand.

In the midst of the new year, we want a return of freedom to our country. We want the rule of law, which has been, in its modern form, a human effort of the past few centuries, to return to our country.

We want deceit and darkness to end, we want an end to discrimination, be it class discrimination, financial, cultural or discrimination against women. We want respect for personal freedoms, and this doesn’t mean we do not pay heed to the collective and its concerns, but that we believe the individual too has a right. And usually, in highly ideological systems, the individual is not allowed to have an opinion or desire of his own. But this is what the green movement is asking for.

Our people are the very creators of the green movement. The green movement is not like a library where a few books have been placed. The green movement is the very people and their visions. We are all together, we are countless. Our country, in terms of ethnicity, language and geopolitics is one of the most complex. But we thank god for the Koran which states: let’s respect this reality – which states that if there are numerous tribes and clans, they should make an effort to get to know one another. Color and language, they are holy. They are signs of god. This plurality is indeed quite beautiful.

The Green Movement is a collection of other movements such as the workers’ movement, teachers’ movement, women’s movement and others. It is also an assembly of different social and professional sects such as artists, athletes, human right supporters that includes all of us in the movement — this unifies us all — as well as other groups. The Green Movement is like a prism that focuses the light shone by every Iranian star — every citizen of this country — on a beautiful canvass that is the Iranian society. The Green Movement demands freedom, it demands change from the current state of affair in realization of greater Islamic morals. The Green Movement is benign, not violent. We don’t want to stress the old saying that says: “You can’t penetrate a solid rock with an iron nail”. Rather we want to go beyond such mentality. We want to say that in this story, there is no solid rock or iron nail – just citizens of this nation, calmly moving forward. I also want to wish our people and the establishment success in realizing the higher ideals.

I would also like to talk about women. The highest ideals for women are freedom and putting an end to discrimination. This is not only specific to women of Iran ,  it is an ideal  women across the world struggle for . In certain countries [women] have had more success [ in removing discrimination] but we have not been successful . This is a reality. I have always said that the Islamic Revolution is an incomplete project. We were hopeful that the great ideals of Islamic Revolution and its great leader Imam Khomeini would substantiate in the Islamic Republic.  Since the revolution succeeded very quickly we expected ideals such as freedom, rule of law, equality, public welfare, eliminating class discrimination and others will be realized in Islamic republic. But it did not happen.  Pursuing these very same ideals particularly women issues is the goal of green movement. Our women suffer numerous discriminations such as legal, cultural and so on.

Some imagine that when the subject of ending discrimination and seeking equality comes up for discussion that [gender] roles are forgotten, that we are talking about a violent society of a Stalinist sort, where everyone acts in the same way, where heads are cut off so that everyone can be the same size as everyone else. This is not at all what I am talking about. The Green Movement recognizes these roles. Not only the Green Movement but all anti-discrimination activism across the world knows and recognizes these roles. It is not the case that in the Green Movement when we talk of ending discrimination, we forget kindness, the qualities of motherhood, creating love, bringing into being passion and excitement, the continuation of human life. In fact, ending discrimination means we want to make use of our religious teachings and customs in a certain way as far as women are concerned. Like sweet basil, not in a heroic manner. What I mean is that we should behave with kindness and in an enlightened manner, not try to be heroes in the way we act.

Of course what I mean by “hero” here is not the meaning it has in our Persian literature; here its meaning is [to act] angrily and violently. Wherever there is discrimination, the odour of sweet basil is taken captive by this angry heroism. That is to say the anger and excesses that the culture or a [particular] system is liable to bring to bear on it. We are in fact pursuing this matter very seriously alongside the [other] ideals of the Green Movement, so that we can separate the bestowal of freedom on women from the areas of authority in which it is currently entrenched (whether these be legal or otherwise) and we can then raise women to the dignity and status that they have in all the noble and valued cultures of the world, including our own beloved Islam. And we want to raise women to that dignity both from a cultural and from a legal perspective.

Finally I would like to congratulate all those fine human beings who have, at a high cost, preserved the great revolution, brought about victory in the Imposed War [with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and his Western backers], and who have bestowed nobility on the Green Movement. I would like to congratulate most humbly the families of those in prison, the families of all the martyrs fallen in the history of Iran, especially during the last thirty years. I hope that the prisoners are free and that they are able to sit beside their families and their ‘Haft Seen’ (Seven ‘s’s) tables at the New Year celebrations. I hope that they alongside their families beside the Haft Seen table they bind the different ‘s’s in an eternally green chain made up of the green shoots of the Green Movement: besides the seven splendid ‘s’s, the ‘s’s of pride (sarfarazi), happiness (saadat), health (salamat) and other wonderful ‘s’s. And we are without number, we are together, we stand firm.

The Green Movement has paid a high price and stood firm in defense of its ideals. Ultimately these are the ideals we want, these are the demands that must be realized. It is not important who puts this into practice, what is important is that these ideals be realized with pride, these ideals that are the very same ideals of the great Islamic Revolution. I know that this will come about and I hope that all of us will find contentment and happiness.

Iran: Reading Mousavi & Karroubi "The Fight Will Continue" (Shahryar)

Josh Shahryar writes for EA:

After the protests on 11 February and a lull over the past month, the two most important opposition figures have spoken yet again to cement their commitment to the movement seeking to topple President Ahmadinejad. While the rhetoric is much the same and clear strategies or plans of action are non-existent in both their speeches, there are several important points which, on closer inspection, speak volumes about the maturing of the movement since its inception.

UPDATED Iran Document: Full Text of Mousavi Speech on “Patience and Perseverance” (15 March)
The Latest from Iran (18 March): Uranium Distractions

The first signal that the Green Movement is alive and well, perhaps going through a process of change, comes from Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech to the Islamic Iran Participation Front:

My feeling for the future is that this movement is irreversible. We will never go back to the position we were in one year ago. I'm very hopeful of the future. We have to transfer patience and hope to people. We have to welcome them to patience and endurance. We will insist on the objectives of the Green Movement until they come to fruition.

In the first part of his speech, Mousavi turns his attention to the reform movement. While he accepts that the movement has faced and continues to face serious challenges, he also declares that the movement will continue. This is a slap in the fact for a government that has pretty much exhausted every tactic in a dictator's book to silence an opposition seeking change. At the same time, it is a reminder to the opposition movement that this change takes years to come about and that giving up now is not an option.

In other words, this is a marathon; not a sprint. Hold your horses, regroup and live to fight another day.

Mousavi then turns his attention to outside observers. While the Iranian Government has been backed repeatedly by China and Russia, Mousavi wants a clear break from the current policy of rebuking the West.

We want to regulate our foreign relations based on national interests, instead of winning so many enemies and leaving not a single friend with every speech. We should not be so adventuristic. Independence is a benediction the Islamic revolution bestowed upon us and we should not lose it. We have some problems with the US and Europe, but we should set our relations based on our national interests, security, safeguarding territorial integrity and national development and growth. Our foreign policy should not be adventurist, nor should it create tensions. We don't have reliable friends to count on in difficult conditions.

In other words, the current policy of the Iranian government is flawed and when the Green Movement succeeds, it will seek to repair ties with the West. With this, Mousavi has put the ball in the West's court while, at the same time, circumventing the mention of China and Russia as friends of the people of Iran.

Finally, Mousavi charters a new course for the Green Movement. It is no longer feasible to just get the educated and urban class to follow the opposition. The movement must look beyond them to find more allies.

If the movement intends to race ahead, it has to spread among people. We have to explain to people that the only option to alleviate economic pressure, reduce soaring divorce and resolve many other problems is to return to the Constitution.

Under the present circumstances, we should not limit our interactions to the elite and we should reach out to other influential groups, including teachers and laborers. We have to explain the ongoing conditions to them in order to win more hearts and minds. We have to have our voice heard by all classes

In other words, if change is slow and time-consuming, what better way to use the duration than to win more allies by working steadily and changing minds among the less affluent classes? Mousavi seems to be alluding to the way Imam Khomeini operated more than three decades ago --- by making alliances and spreading the movement among the populace.

If Mousavi decided not to criticize the government as harshly as the opposition might have expected, Mehdi Karroubi, also speaking to the Islamic Iran Participation Front, took charge and made matters quite clear. He first took apart Ahmadinejad and Co. for criticizing the BBC and alleging that foreign media outlets were helping the Green Movement, asking asked why were there no criticisms against BBC when it was "assisting the Revolution". Karroubi reminded his detractors that Ayatollah Khomeini took advantage of all news agencies and media in his political struggles against the monarchy and no one in the Islamic Republic would accuse him of having foreign ties.

At the end of his speech, Karroubi said what many in the Green Movement were waiting to hear. In his harshest criticism of the system so far, Karroubi claimed that the Islamic Republic which the people voted for in the beginning of the Revolution "is not the Islamic Republic that we now have".

Both statements are more candid and bolder than those made by Karroubi and Mousavi earlier in the crisis. Perhaps the Green Movement is indeed moving into a different direction after 11 February.

UPDATED Iran Document: Full Text of Mousavi Speech on "Patience and Perseverance" (15 March)

Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech on Monday to the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, translated by Khordaad 88:

In the name of God, the Compassionate and the Merciful.

I would like to thank you for being present here. We are currently facing an extraordinary situation. It would have made me happy to see our other friends among you as well –-- friends who are currently in prison, such as Mr.Mirdamadi. [Mohsen Mirdamadi, the chairman of IIPF, has now been temporarily released.]

As a political party, you are better informed of the situation that we are currently in. You are [also well] aware of the restrictions and limitations that the Islamic Participation Front faces. In many countries, the activities of [opposition] parties and other groups are welcomed and encouraged since they provides a means for diagnosing national problems and solving them based on collective reasoning.

Political parties and NGOs are the link between the government and the public and they help to alleviate the image of the state as a fearful entity. Additionally, a large number of economic and social activities occur through these units. NGOs and other associations are a benchmark of development and progress in many countries. Even in countries where the rule of law is prevalent, these [social] entities are necessary to carry out various social, political and economic activities and educate the public. [An uneducated], populist society will not experience proper growth.

Similar institutions have existed in our society and they have traceable historical roots. We have a municipal council, which has played an important role in social preservation. For example, one can refer to the texture and structure of a city like Kashan, which consists of diverse districts with similar institutions. These organizations, funded by donation, helped preserve the city and encourage growth. Another example is the existence of various [religious] groups. In a modern society, these institutions have become particularly important and lead to the formation of political organizations.

Our Constitution evidently stresses and concentrates on the right to organize social gatherings and form [social/political] parties and organizations. Some people mistakenly assume that such organizations are gifts awarded to the people by the government. We mistakenly believe that these organizations should be shaped by the government and delivered to the people while this is a social demand and its prevalence results in a healthy society.

The government should not ban these activities. If the government did not place such severe pressure on people and allowed them to be politically active and form organizations --- without fear of prosecution --- then there would be no need to have demonstrations in the streets. Furthermore, if the government did not use such severe violence and trample on people’s rights, then everyone would remain calm and peaceful during those demonstrations. Unfortunately, over the past nine months, the authorities have been extremely violent towards the protesters and have ignored their right --- this has cost the people dearly. They have truly paid a great price in the violence that we have witnessed.

The situation that we face today, along with that of the Islamic Participation Front, are reason enough for an uprising. If the government had attended to the rights and demands of the people, then there would be no need for them to come to the streets and shout hostile slogans. The people are only demanding that their rights be respected and all the aggression of the past nine months has been the result of violence instigated by the government --- violence which has caused the people to suffer greatly.

In the demonstrations of June 15, 2009, people were mindful of their slogans as well as their compatriots’ safety. Nonetheless, tragedy happened despite the caution. What must constantly be reiterated is the sheer number of people who showed up to participate that day—that is something we must not forget. On that day, the atmosphere was joyful, organized, and peaceful and none of the slogans were hostile.

Unfortunately, the tragic incident that occurred towards the end, changed what was supposed to be a peaceful demonstration into a violent one. However, more attention needs to be paid to the style of that demonstration so that people today (as well as future generations) can learn about the very essence of the Green Movement. What needs to be highlighted is the nature and the source of the Green Movement and perpetually writing articles about June 15th can help us do that.

Fortunately, the people have kept the underlying idea and the spirit alive and over the course of the past nine months have given it considerable attention. Despite the bitter events of the last nine months, people have maintained their spirits as they were on day one, and developed the peaceful and civil aspects of the movement. It is true that we have had our ups and downs, but these are necessary features and they should be treated with vigilance.

Opponents of the movement have attempted to accuse its leaders and thinkers, like members of the Islamic Participation Front, of collusion with places [and groups] that people dislike. There have been different levels of intensity of accusations at different times, but there was [always] pressure. The Islamic Participation Front has been the target of some of the most extreme pressure, and its members have been falsely charged with immorality, which is an accusation that a nation should not accept.

We must not act passively in the face of such insults. We must maintain our balance at every moment that we [are forced to] endure such pressure. I mentioned before, in one of my interviews, that a group used to say that the "Constitutional Revolution" [of the early 20th century in Iran] was to the benefit of the British. In that interview, I responded by quoting Akhond Khorasani, who said: “Whatever we do, it will either benefit the British or the Russians. If that is the case, are we just to sit down and do nothing?” The answer is obviously "no".

We must strategize in a way that is right [and to our benefit] and stop getting distracted by such accusations. We must not act as if we are benefiting one or harming another. We must look to our own [problems] and design our own agendas. We must do what we have to do for ourselves.

One function of these allegations is to make us passive and indifferent; the other is to distance us from the people in a way that ruins the trust and optimism they have [placed] in us. We must not be indifferent and passive towards such issues, insults and analysis.

Recently, a magazine linked Mr. Khatami and the Participation Front to a terrorist from the south of Iran and to [US President] Obama. They have made absurd conclusions, obviously with the purpose of trying to prove that people like Mr. Khatami and members of the Participation Front are rooted to foreign powers.

We must stick with our values and avoid falling into their traps while stressing our core principles and our independence. We should not lose our equilibrium or resort to extremes. We want to shape our foreign relations based on our people’s welfare rather than creating thousands of enemies and losing all of our friends with every single speech. We should not be so adventurous.

One of the blessings that the Islamic Revolution has brought us is our independence and we must not lose it. Of course, we have issues with the outside world, with the United States and Europe, but our foreign relations should be shaped in a way to ensure our nation’s interests and our national security and to preserve our territorial integrity and to ensure our country’s growth and development. Our foreign policy should not be stressful and risky so that we lose the chance of having trusted friends and companions in hard conditions. We should not lose our state of balance because we are under pressure. The truth is that in the past few years the accusation of being in related to foreigners has been constantly used as a weapon for repressing and backlashing (withdrawing) people and intellectual forces from social spheres in our country and this should become clear.

We have been informed that those challenging the Green Movement have grossly distorted the truth about post-election events. They have conjured up a fictional tale --- one that they themselves are starting to believe in—and perpetuate this tale incessantly. In it, the government constructs a role for each party and public figure in order to put a spin on the truth and present events in a way that they benefit the government, not in the way that they actually occurred.

But, let us [now] explore and expose each dimension of this fictional tale. They have created a false picture of the Green Movement and, of course, they want to use this artificial representation to justify their position as well as the violence directed at the clergy and the pious. In their fictional tale, they claim that reformist parties and groups are affiliated with foreign powers. Propaganda based on this fictional tale was printed on flyers that were distributed during the 22nd of Bahman demonstration on February 11, 2010.

These so-called strategies are conjured up behind closed doors. What we need to do is demonstrate that this movement is in no way affiliated with foreign powers and is completely self-serving. We need to constantly emphasize that this movement has no qualms with religion, is aligned with the Constitution of the Islamic Republic, and is trying to rekindle the kind, generous, and just rule of Islam. I will stress that the same aspirations that characterize the Green Movement today were very much present during the fight for the Islamic Revolution (1979) and even earlier than that, during the Constitutional Revolution (1905-1911).

This movement is not against Islam, but arises from the people’s religious views as well as their aversion towards oppression. This movement was born from the Constitution --- that grand legacy, which many of our countrymen have sacrificed their lives for.

The Constitution is a interconnected collection of articles that provide a [coherent] meaning if understood together. People have voted for all of these articles. Therefore we should implement all of it together. We should not take advantage of certain section and ignore others. Doing this is against the will of people who voted for the Constitution as whole and will incur significant damage. To keep a official party from holding a convention is against the constitution and is harmful. In this situation , we should not confine ourselves strictly to [the opinions] of the elite. We should move beyond this and pay attention to other leading and influential groups. We should reach out to teachers, laborers, and all others; we should discuss the current issues with them. If we desire the expansion of this righteous movement, we should reach out to all [social] classes. Another important point is paying attention to the religious feelings of people.

We are all religious, but being religious is not enough. The strong propaganda they have been promoting in society has made some doubtful. Sometimes when I interact with religious clerical figures who know me very well, they assume that behind the scenes, something has greatly changed and that I’ve greatly changed. So I have to talk to them and calmly explain. We must open people’s eyes to the to the lies and propaganda.

Relationships with the clergymen must be expanded and strengthened, at least with those who are ready for this relationship. We must familiarize them with the goals of the movement. Some of the clergymen have come in contact with the movement through the street demonstrations, but nevertheless, they must become more familiar with it. This can nullify the fictional tales told of the Green Movement by the administration. These tales might be believed by those who don’t have access to different sources of information.

If the movement is to go on, it must publicize its goals in all sects and groups in the society and in different cities. Economic issues must be explained for the people. It must be elucidated that to address economic issues and social problems such as the high divorce rate, we must return to the Constitution and uphold its principles. People must feel this. They should not think that the Green Movement is only an angry reaction towards a cheated election. We must marry the Green Movement goals with the aspirations of an advanced and prosperous Iran.

In the coming year we must be patient and show endurance. Though absence of friends such as Mr. Mirdamadi is taxing, their presence in the administration’s prisons has had a noteworthy consequence. I believe that imprisonment is no longer an effective tool to fight the Green Movement. I have prayed on many occasions in the past eight to nine months for the administration to free the political prisoners and remove the restrictions on the press, but my preyers went unanswered. Surely people would not refer to the foreign media nearly as much if we didn’t have so many restrictions on our press and media.

If they [the country’s officials] are wise, they will know that the solution to the country’s problems is not through turning society into a military camp, the solution is in lawful freedom. If they hadn’t shut down the newspapers, if they hadn’t created such limitations, if they had left the environment just the smallest bit open for criticism, people would have left the streets empty. If they had given these minimum freedoms, the government and parliament and the overall ruling establishment would have been stronger. Of course, these freedoms create limitations for those in power, but this benefits the country and the ruling establishment, the ruling system will be stronger both in national and international spheres.

It is very sad that the judiciary which was supposed to be independent, and free of outside influence, is now in a condition where the ministry of intelligence and the IRGC [Revolutionary Guards] dictate who to arrest, who to let go, what verdicts to give … In the early days of the revolution, the High Judicial Council was formed so that no one could order the judiciary around, and unfortunately, this situation changed. It’s not that we don’t have compassionate judges, and in fact, those very compassionate and noble judges feel this oppression more, and suffer as a result. There are many compassionate, noble judges in the judiciary, but that’s not how it looks from the outside. I just hope that there is a turn in the direction the current ruling elite are taking the Islamic Republic. And I hope that in the system, there is a turn towards honoring the Constitution in running the country’s affairs, and a free environment is created so that in its shadow, the country’s problems and crises can be resolved.

In regards to the future, I feel that the movement that has begun is irreversible. We will never again return to the conditions that were a year ago. We have to value these change in ideas. I am very hopeful for the future, we must persuade people towards hope and patience, patience meaning faith. This movement wants nothing for itself, it wants freedom and prosperity and progress and better days for people and it will surely achieve these aims. The move after the election, and the election itself made the people aware of their rights, we must invite people to patience and perseverance. We must name and know the coming year as the year of patience and perseverance. A year of perseverance for the green movement to reach its aims.