Iran Analysis: Towards the Final Battle? (Zahra)

EA correspondent Ms Zahra takes a close look power and resistance in Iran:

Recent news from Iran gives an ambiguous impression. The regime carries out more arrests. It concentrates and extends its power: political (President Ahmadinejad's chief advisor Esfandiar Rahim Mashai now holds 18 additional offices), economic (the extensive sale of state-owned companies to Revolutionary Guard foundations), and military sphere (new Basiji headquarters in Tehran, heavy security measures for any of Ahmadinejad’s provincial visits).

Yet, at the same time, even a "cultural" step such as using hijab as a new cause for oppression attests to the weakness of this regime. Major political, economic, and social issues remain unsolved, with no attempt to deal with them on the horizon.


POLITICAL: The nuclear case is unresolved, and more sanctions loom. Corruption investigations of high-ranking officials such as 1st Vice-President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, have been postponed temporarily but could be pressed again by the Govenrment's "conservative" opponents. The tension over the ban on the last two reformist parties, Mosharekat (Islamic Iran Participation Front) and Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution, lingers.

ECONOMIC: Ahmadinejad's subsidy cut plan has not been implemented two months after its approval by the Majlis. Disinvestment in the oil and gas sector, such as the South Pars and Assalouyeh fields, continues, oil sales are impeded by undeclared sanctions, and the general decline in production is not halted. Unemployment and inflation are growing, while the cases of unreturned loans (allegedly up to $50 millions) to state banks are pending.

SOCIAL: Eleven months after the disputed presidential elections, thousands of protesters are still imprisoned, and the cases of more than 100 demonstrators killed on the streets, raped in prisons, or tortured to death in facilities such as Kahrizak remain unsettled. Purges in universities and offices have not quieted protest.

Instead of addressing these crucial problems, Ahmadinejad’s government resorts to “moral” issues to discipline youth and women, the two groups of Iranian society who have constantly established their resistance against his backward social policies.

Meanwhile the opposition is closing ranks: even though the clergy in general has remained silent, high-ranking clerics such as Ayatollah Sane’i or Ayatollah Dastegheib, following the example of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, have sharply condemned governmental violence against protesting citizens.

This year’s May Day was an opportunity to build relations between the Green Movement and labour unions, and last Friday four Islamic labour associations declared that they would merge. Executions of Kurdish citizens have led to an unprecedented wave of solidarity, addressing the relationship of Iran's majority society to its ethnic minorities. Peaceful protests in Kurdish areas attest to a tacit adoption of the Green Movement’s principle of non-violence.

Editorial staffs of Green websites have issued a joint statement on resistance. Women of all political currents celebrated their union in a moving Nowruz meeting of publishers, lawyers, and human rights activists (for example, Shahla Lahiji, Nasrin Sotudeh, and Minou Mortazi) with Zahra Rahnavard. Students organise rallies and fasts for their imprisoned professors and comrades, popular artists boycotted the state-owned Islamic Repbulic of Iran Broadcasting, and the international Fajr Film Festival. Authors and their associations issue statements against repression and dedicate poems to the executed.

One may ask why the embattled Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and the former President Mohammad Khatami have not yet formed a joint front of opposition. The probable answer is that diversity is likely to attract more supporters from different political camps. Conflicting concepts, which become apparent in their statements such as Karroubi's last letter, can reflect the pluralistic nature of this popular movement.

Recent developments point to a growing division of Iranian society into two camps. The economic and military power of the Government, backed by the Revolutionary Guard and Basiji faces a majority of unarmed and impoverished people.

But the appearance of power vs. the powerless is superficial. This government is incapable to solve fundamental economic issues, which will impede its efforts to concentrate its military power in the long run. As soon as the government is not able to pay its (para)-military forces sufficiently, its last stronghold will crumble. Infusing Basiji and other paramilitary forces with “revolutionary” ideology may stop this disintegration temporarily, but even these troops do not live in a social vacuum. Even the pretext of the preservation of Islam to oppress dissidents has much lost of its credibility since the historically unprecedented killings of unarmed protesters on the religious festival of Ashura (27 December).

The Islamic Republic's most radical, undemocratic and reactionary forces have declared war on Iranian civil society, which has proven during the past 11 months its commitment to a modern, pluralistic, and peaceful Islamic state. This may the last battle of those forces as they try to deny the social and political transition of an Islamic state towards a democratic society.

The Latest from Iran (24 May): Rahnavard's Statement, Ahmadinejad Heckled

1910 GMT: Panahi to be Freed? Iranian Students News Agency is reporting a statement from Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi that the decree ordering the release of film director Jafar Panahi from Evin Prison has been signed.

Panahi has not been freed yet, however. Dowlatabadi said he met Panahi last Thursday in jail and agreed to the director's request of freedom before his trial, subject to payment of bail. According to Dowlatabadi, "bureaucratic procedures are now proceeding".

1745 GMT: No Permit, No 12 June March? Readers have picked up on this passage from the English translation of Sunday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi:

[They] decided to invite people to participate in a national rally on theanniversary of the rigged presidential election on 22 Khordaad if permission for holding a rally is issued by the Interior Ministry, but if this constitutional right is denied by Ahmadinejad’s administration, they proposed to peacefully continue promoting awareness through the various and numerous social networks.

I asked an EA correspondent, "Does that mean that, if no permit is given, neither will take to the streets and call out the Green Movement to demonstrate?"

The correspondent's reply:

I take it to read that while they may not march, they will not stand idle if, as expected, the permission is not granted.

We should emphasise that the 12 June rally, if it takes place, is something relatively new, as it is the very first "homegrown" event for the Green wave, i.e., one that does not "piggyback" on an existing regime commemoration event. This is potentially a vulnerability, as it leaves the Green people exposed (everyone out on the streets that day is Green). It is worth nothing that Kalemeh indicates that Mousavi and Karroubi have also discussed events pertaining to the June 15 anniversary of the mass rally and the June 20 commemoration too. All this means that these days shall be an important litmus test for everyone, the regime and the Greens.

NEW Iran Document: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (23 May)
NEW Latest Iran Video: Ahmadinejad Heckled During Speech (24 May)
Iran Document: Khatami “Khordaad is the Month of the People”(22 May)
The Latest from Iran (23 May): Is This The People’s Month?

1650 GMT: The Iran Uranium Letter. Reuters has posted the text of Iran's formal note, based on the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on a uranium fuel swap, to the International Atomic Energy Agency. An extract:

The nuclear fuel exchange is a starting point to begin cooperation and a positive constructive move forward among nations. Such a move should lead to positive interaction and cooperation in the field of peaceful nuclear activities, replacing and avoiding all kinds of confrontation through refraining from measures, actions and rhetorical statements that would jeopardize Iran's rights and obligations under the NPT.

Based on the above, in order to facilitate the nuclear cooperation mentioned above, the Islamic Republic of Iran agrees to deposit 1200 kg LEU in Turkey. While in Turkey the LEU will continue to be the property of Iran. Iran and the IAEA may station observers to monitor the safekeeping of the LEU in Turkey.

In return, we expect the Agency, also in accordance with paragraph 6 of this declaration, to notify the Vienna Group (USA, Russia, France and the IAEA) of its content, and consequently inform us of the Group's positive response. Such action, according to this declaration, will pave the way to commence negotiation for elaboration on further details of the exchange leading to conclusion of a written agreement and as well as making proper arrangements between Iran and the Vienna Group.

1425 GMT: We have posted the English translation of the summary of the Mir Hossein Mousavi-Mehdi Karroubi meeting on Sunday.

1330 GMT: The Crackdown (and a Video Game). Writing for The National, Michael Theodoulou opens his story with the tale of the video game, "Fighting the Leaders of Sedition", where players can use fighter jets to kill Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami. He then moves to the real-life stories of jail sentences, alleged beatings, e.g., of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, and the detention of film director Jafar Panahi.

1310 GMT: What the Crowd Said to Ahmadinejad. HomyLafayette interprets the video, from Iranian state television, of an audience shouting at the President in Khorramshahr today:

Ahmadinejad attempted to shout over the cries of the population, but even his promises to stem unemployment in the southwestern province failed to trigger applause or to calm the people's loud refrain of "bikari, bikari!" (unemployment, unemployment!).

"The government is at your service," said the beleaguered Ahmadinejad. "With broad projects, with the efforts of the dear youth of Khorramshahr and Khuzestan province, it will uproot unemployment from Khuzestan, god willing."

1300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. According to an Iranian activist, Azad University student Sina Golchin has been sentenced to 4 1/2 years in prison by an appeals court for participating in the protest on Ashura (27 December).

1135 GMT: Sunday's Karroubi-Mousavi Meeting. Saham News, the website connected with Mehdi Karroubi, has posted a summary of the discussion between Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. The two men agreed to call for a march on 12 June, the anniversary of the election, and to seek ways to expand the awareness of the Green Movement despite Government restrictions.

1040 GMT: Ahmadinejad Heckled. An EA correspondent, who watched the President's television speech this morning, sends us two audio clips of crowd noise. He comments:

You can clearly hear people shouting 'Azadi' (freedom) in the second clip. In the first clip, near the beginning, the TV obviously tried to remove something, but it's not clear what that was.

(We've now posted a video of the incident.)

1025 GMT: Still Keeping Score on Uranium? After Sunday's confusion, Tehran has submitted a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency, outlining last week's Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on procedure for talks on a uranium swap outside Iran.

1020 GMT: Tough Crowd for Ahmadinejad? Nasser Karimi of the Associated Press reports:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's speech in a southern port town has been marred by shouts from disenchanted Iranians demanding jobs.

Ahmadinejad on Monday addressed hundreds gathered in Khorramshahr — about 625 miles (1,000 kilometers) southwest of Tehran — when scores from the crowd interrupted his speech with shouts: "We are unemployed!"

The President was speaking on the 28th anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr from Iraqi forces in the Persian Gulf War.
0945 GMT: Rahnavard's Green Movement Warriors. An English translation of the remarks of Zahra Rahnavard, activist and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, speaking to Iranian war veterans on the 28th anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr from Iraq, has been posted:

Today the Green movement is seeking the same great values and is continuing the [real] goals of the revolution and the holy defence [against Iraq]; and the martyrs of the Green movement and the warriors and woundees of this movement are the followers of the martyrs of the holly defence era [against the Iraqi occupying forces] especially in the liberation of Abadan and Khorramshar.

Today, the martyrs of the Green movement are carrying the same flag of the martyrs of the holy defence era and revive the memories of the devoted mothers that sang lullaby for the children of martyrs, soldiers and veterans. Today those children have risen from their cradles and each has become a warrior and a devotee. This is why the role of women, daughters and wives in the houses of martyrs as the flag bearers for purity, justice and freedom is truly unforgettable and will be our guide.

I would like to say to you that each has been the witness of the values of your martyrs that if this regime does not try to fulfill the demands and the transcendental and value-based expectations of the Green movement, then it will definitely fall by its own hands. The government should know that the nature of reform is to reform and not to overthrow. But it is possible that this regime with the path that it has chosen, overthrow itself. The government today has not turned 90 degrees but rather 180 degrees from the transcendental values of Islam, revolution and the holy defence era....

Our great Islamic Revolution put an end to 2500 years of monarchy and joined to the movement of prophets. These demands will never fail but if the current government does not reform itself and does not respond to the people’s demands, the Green movement will not overthrow it but rather the very own government will overthrow itself. We hope this will not happen. We would like everything to be reformed in the best way. We hope the regime itself becomes the pioneer for these demands and fulfill them but if it remains ignorant to people’s demands, then it is destroying itself.

0740 GMT: MediaWatch. Since we've chided CNN for its nuclear obsession, it's only fair to give a shout-out to Scherezade Faramarzi of the Associated Press, who posted on Sunday, "With Death Sentences, Iran Seeks to Cow Opposition".

0545 GMT: Execution. Islamic Republic News Agency reports that Abdul Hameed Rigi was hung this morning. He is the brother of Abdul Malek Rigi, the detained leader of the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah.

0525 GMT: Slowly but steadily, the opposition is building up to 12 June. In the last 72 hours, there have been statements from Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami. Mousavi and Karroubi met on Sunday, although there are still no details of the discussion.
Seven opposition websites issued a statement declaring their goals as “resistance, defending the rights of the citizens, unity and avoidance of all forms of violence” and urging the public to “resist and persist in their legal demands to restore the lost principles of the constitution”.

How and even whether these signals will translate into a challenge to the regime on the anniversary of the Presidential election is the big, unanswered question. But at least that question is being posed.

Not that this matter much, so far, to CNN. It is preoccupied with the state of play on the Iran-Brazil-Turkey proposal for talks on uranium enrichment. Iran has said --- amidst some confusion amongst its state media --- that it will formally present the proposal to the International Atomic Energy Agency today, and CNN International is already pursing it lips: ""But can the Iranians be taken at their word?"

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

We are still chasing confirmation of the status of filmmakers Mohammad Nourizad and Jafar Panahi. There were reports, amidst meetings by Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi with prisoners and their families, that the two would be freed --- pro-Government media were saying that Nourizad had been released, a report denied by Nourizad's daughter.

Student leader Majid Tavakoli has reportedly been taken back to solitary confinement and has threatened that he will go on hunger strike.

Amnesty International has posted a statement requesting "urgent action" over detainees Shiva Nazar Ahari and Kouhyar Goudarzi of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters (CHRR).

Sanctions Dance

In the continued manoeuvring over the Iran-Brazil-Turkey proposal and the US-led push for more sanctions, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Sunday, "If I was in the place of Russian officials, I would adopt a more careful stance."

Russia has been on a non-stop balancing act since last week's moves, with Washington insisting that it has Russian support for a UN Security Council resolution punishing Tehran but Moscow also declaring that it will open Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant by August.

Iran Document: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting (23 May)

Translation from the Facebook page supporting Mir Hossein Mousavi:

On Sunday, 23 May 2010, and on the eve of the first anniversary of the rigged presidential election, Mehdi Karroubi met with Mir Hossein Mousavi and they discussed the important issues of the country.

The Latest from Iran (24 May): Rahnavard’s Statement, Ahmadinejad Heckled

In this meeting these two Green leaders, pointing out the arrival of the month of Khordaad (May-June), emphasized the importance of the significant days of this month including 2 Khordaad (23 May: the day Seyed Mohammad Khatami was elected president in 1997), 3 Khordaad (24 May: the day the city of Khoramshahr in southwest Iran was liberated from occupying Iraqi forces in 1982), 14 Khordaad (4 June: the anniversary of Imam Khomeini's death in 1989) , 15 Khordaad (5 June: the anniversary of Imam Khomeini's speech in 1963 criticizing the Shah, leading to his arrest and major protests), as well as 22 Khordaad (12 June: the anniversary of the rigged presidential election) and the post-election events of 25 and 30 Khordaad (15 and 20 June: the days of mass  protests).



In this meeting Mousavi and Karroubi stressed the necessity of reports that precisely document the post-election events: “Clarifying what has happened since 22 Khordaad is very important for the progress of the Green Movement and showing the justice-seeking path of the people.”

In this meeting the Green leaders decided to invite people to participate in a national rally on the anniversary of the rigged presidential election on 22 Khordaad if permission for holding a rally is issued by the Interior Ministry, but if this constitutional right is denied by Ahmadinejad’s administration, they proposed to peacefully continue promoting awareness through the various and numerous social networks.

Karroubi and Mousavi, while emphasizing the ineffectiveness of the violent confrontations against the Green Movement and the expansion of the Green waves of awareness despite all limitations, said that the events of the past week in universities are signs of the ineffectiveness of the violent confrontations against the rightful demands of the people. They asserted that the people are demanding their human rights, which have been stipulated in the Constitution, and free and non-selective elections as well as free media and the release of all the political prisoners.

Referring to the attacks of plainclothes militia...on some figures and some offices, Mousavi and Karroubi stressed, “These actions are organized crimes and are the continuation of the crimes committed in Kahrizak prison and student dormitories which have re-emerged in a different form today.”

Expressing deep sorrow for the brutal beating of Mohammad Nourizad (imprisoned journalist and filmmaker) in prison, Mousavi and Karroubi said that beating and use of violence against an artist with the aim to intimidate him is a cruel and pre-meditated method which pains the heart of anyone who is compassionate about the system.”

Karroubi and Mousavi in this meeting asserted: “All these events are the results of silence in front of oppression. To prevent and end these illegal methods against religion, the rights of the individuals and groups should be defended regardless of their views and the charges they face, because the Islamic approach is to defend the oppressed regardless of their views and opinions.”

Mousavi and Karroubi expressed concern about the widespread expansion of lies in remarks [of government officials] and manipulation of [official] statistics and information. They warned that the expansion of lies, in addition to destroying the economic, political and cultural aspects [of society], will also damage the intellectual foundations. Everyone should be informed that Islam is against lies and corruption and we should tell people that corruption and other inhuman and illegal actions have nothing to do with Islam.

Mousavi and Karroubi exchanged views about the critical economic situation of the country with the decline of national industries, rise in unemployment, and the poor quality of life of tbhe working class and teachers. They emphasised that the efforts to divert the public mind from the actual reasons behind the problems is a tactic to escape from them, and they said the government, instead of making excuses must control the inflation and unemployment rates and support the national economy. Then they will see that many crimes will be reduced.

It was also emphasized that if state-run television and radio stopped their partisan and totalitarian policies, there will be more understanding and unity in the society. Mousavi and Karroubi asked, "What kind of organization is this, which is called the national media but in which  there is no sign of news and views of the nation?"

At the end, Mousavi and Karroubi, pointing out the imminent anniversary of Imam Khomeini’s passing, referred to the damaging consequences of the government, IRIB [state broadcasting],and foreign media distorting his political beliefs, manner, and approach....

The Latest from Iran (23 May): Is This The People's Month?

1820 GMT: Joined-Up Government? Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, Iran's representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Sunday that Iran had not yet delivered a letter outlining the procedure for the uranium swap agreed last week with Brazil and Turkey.

Islamic Republic News Agency reported earlier Sunday that the letter had been delivered (see 1515 GMT). Iranian officials now say it will be submitted on Monday.

1815 GMT: Claimed video of a clashes between protesters and government forces today at Elm-o-Sanat University:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFHYQj8LSZE[/youtube]

NEW Iran Document: Khatami “Khordaad is the Month of the People”(22 May)
Iran Nuke Analysis: Reading the US-Turkey Discussions
The Latest from Iran (22 May): Karroubi’s Letter, University Protests

1810 GMT: Resistance. Seven opposition websites have issued a joint statement that they will “resist and persevere” in their mission of informing the public until the fall of “despotism” and the moment of “victory”.


Emrooz (Today), Tahavole Sabz (Green Evolution), Jaras/Rah-e-Sabz (Path of the Green Movement), Neday-e Sabz-e Azadi (The Green Voice of Freedom), Raymankojast (Where’s My Vote?), Mizan, and Saham News declared that that “resistance, defending the rights of the citizens, unity and avoidance of all forms of violence” are the pillars of their media activities. They urged the public to contact them with suggestions about “disseminating information” and to “resist and persist in their legal demands to restore the lost principles of the constitution.”

1800 GMT: Nourizad Still Imprisoned? An Iranian activist notifies us that Mohammad Nourizad's daughter has denied the report that he has been released from prison (see 1520 GMT). Pro-Government websites are still carrying the news.

1520 GMT:  Political Prisoner News. Tabnak is reporting from Khabar Online that filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad has been released from prison. The article also denied Nourizad's claim that he was beaten by guards last week.

1515 GMT: The Uranium Dispute. The Islamic Republic News Agency reports that Iran has officially handed a letter to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, setting out the terms for a swap of uranium, based on last week's joint declaration by Iran, Brazil and Turkey.

1510 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz is reporting, from "sources", that film director Jafar Panahi will be freed this evening from Evin Prison.

Iranian activists are writing that student leader Majid Tavakoli has been moved back to solitary confinement.

1230 GMT: Election Manipulation? Further information on the claim (0740 GMT) that entire villages were "resurrected" --- 60 around Tabriz alone --- to provide votes for President Ahmadinejad in the 2009 election: context and details can be found in Ayande News, Tabnak, and other citations in the Green Voice of Freedom article.

1220 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Press TV, drawing from Iranian Students News Agency, writes:

The Chairman of Iran's Expediency Council, Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, described the Islamic Republic as "determined" to defend its rights and in particular its nuclear rights on the international stage: "Iran will not give up its rights in the face of such psychological warfare, threats, and intimidation."...

According to the senior Iranian official, the region and the world will pay a heavy price if "hostile and unethical ways" are adopted to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue.

ISNA highlights Rafsanjani's remarks about the 28th anniversary of the Iranian defence of Khorramshahr against Iraqi attack. No word, however, about his views on internal matters.

1010 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iranian Azeri activist Behboud Gholizade, the head of the NGO Yashil, has been arrested.

1000 GMT: Mousavi and Karroubi Meet. Kalemeh, the website of Mir Hossein Mousavi, reports that Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have had a new discussion today. "Further news" is promised later.

0830 GMT: Corruption Corner. Fazel Mousavi of Parliament's Article 90 Commission, has asserted that files  alleging corruption against senior government figures are being investigated.

0825 GMT: Economy Watch. Gholamreza Mesbahi Moghaddam, a leading member of Parliament's Economy Committee, has again urged the Goverernment to declare details of its subsidy cut plans, warning that otherwise there will be negative economic effects.

0815 GMT: Labour Front. Iran Labor Report sets out the regime crackdown on the Tehran and Municipality Bus Workers Labor Syndicate, with detentions, firings, and disciplinary action.

0810 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Writing for Tehran Bureau, "Hana H." has a lengthy profile of Mehdi Hashemi, Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, and the pressure upon him and his family.

Hashemi is living in Britain and has been threatened with criminal prosecution if he returns to Iran.

0745 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kurdish activist Mohieddin Azadi, detained since March 2008, is reportedly on hunger strike.

85 Iranian filmmakers have urged the judiciary to release detained director Jafar Panahi.

0740 GMT: Remembering the Election (Manipulation)? Green Voice of Freedom claims a new fact from the 2009 Presidential vote for consideraiton: dozens of villages which were recorded in 1976 but had ceased to exist by 2007 suddenly appeared for last year's ballot. The website cites the example of 60 "resurrected" villages around Tabriz.

0735 GMT: Show of Force. Rah-e-Sabz reports heavy security in Khorramshahr in southwestern Iran on the eve of a visit by President Ahmadinejad.

Rooz Online claims two million Basiji militia have been mobilised for 22 Khordaad (12 June).

0715 GMT: Yesterday we began with a defiant statement from Mehdi Karroubi. Today we start with a gentler but pointed call by former President Mohammad Khatami for the Iranian people, leading up to the 12 June anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election, to claim their rights and for the Government to respect that claim. The text is in a separate entry.

Meanwhile....

Government Spin: Look Away. Far Away....

More emphasis by President Ahmadinejad and his men on events beyond Iran. On Saturday Ahmadinejad spoke with Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey, who helped broker last week's agreement on a procedure for Tehran's uranium enrichment. Press TV gives the public line:

Iran's nuclear declaration is the beginning of a new era in the international political arena and offers a great opportunity for interaction and dialogue. Tehran is to create a new atmosphere in international relations based on fair and constructive cooperation with its friend and brother countries.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, meeting UN special representative Staffan de Mistura, settled for calling the US the main perpetrator of radicalism in Afghanistan.

New Green Website

Sabzlink, a new "portal" offering readers the latest in Iran news, has gone on-line.

The Latest from Iran (22 May): Karroubi's Letter, University Protests

1810 GMT: University Protest. Video has emerged claiming to be of a protest on Thursday at Bani Akram University in Tabriz.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jc4Wc0JSzOc[/youtube]

1530 GMT: University Protest. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports, from an unnamed student source, "Basij forces at the university attacked protesting students and injured several of them....Students were chanting 'Death to the Dictator' and 'Ya Hossein, Mir Hossein'."

NEW Iran Nuke Analysis: Reading the US-Turkey Discussions
Iran Analysis: Four Perspectives on the Uranium-Sanctions Dance
The Latest from Iran (21 May): Friday Rest?

1515 GMT: University Protest. Reports are coming through of a demonstration at Azad University in Tehran today, with "several hundred" chanting against the continued detention of fellow students. Human Rights Activists News Agency claims there was a heavy security presence, with possible arrests. The claimed video:


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vC8K-kjAzQ[/youtube]

1110 GMT: Karroubi's Letter. The Associated Press has picked up on Mehdi Karroubi's latest intervention, in a letter to Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili (see 0645 GMT):

The judiciary, which...is required under the constitution to defend constitutional freedoms of the citizens, has become an instrument in the hands of the ruling system and security and military agencies. Instead of providing security to the people, the judiciary has turned to intimidation and imprisonment....

The present head of government [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad], with his strange behavior, has humiliated the Iranian nation.

0855 GMT: Sanctions Deals? In a separate entry, Ali Yenidunya looks at the tension in US-Turkish relations around this week's Iran-Turkey-Brazil agreement on the process for uranium enrichment talks.

Looks like Washington may have avoided such tensions with Moscow, however, over the path to sanctions on Tehran: on Friday, the US Government lifted any punishment of three Russian entities implicated in efforts to aid Iran's nuclear weapons and missile programmes.

0845 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch (cont.). The "hardline" journalist Fatemeh Rajabi has pronounced that Hashemi Rafsanjani's interpretation of Islamic rule is like "the time of the Shah".

0810 GMT: Economy Watch. This may be the most revealing statement in some time on the challenges to Iran's government. General Hassan Firouzabadi, who is a well-known economic expert as the head of Iran's armed forces, issued this declaration when he introduced Tehran Friday Prayers: "Reformists are responsible for the people's economic problems."

0750 GMT: Noticing. A burst of attention in the US media to internal affairs in Iran. William Yon and Michael Slackman write in The New York Times, "As Iran approaches the first anniversary of a contested presidential election that touched off a deep political crisis, opposition supporters remain under intense pressure, with student leaders [Bahareh Hedayat and  Milan Asadi] receiving long prison terms and a prominent opposition politician [Mohammad Ali Abtahi] and a filmmaker being attacked."

(I leave it for readers to consider whether the recent attack by the authors of Race for Iran on Nazila Fathi of the Times has actually spurred the newspaper to maintain its focus on the Government pressure before the 12 June anniversary.)

The Los Angeles Times picks up on the "bad hijab" campaign. It adds to our review of Ayatollah Jannati's Friday Prayer sermon in Tehran and then turns to Ayatollah Ahmad Alam-al-Hoda in Mashhad:

Badly veiled women and girls are like foot soldiers of the United States. Our enemies intend to pull the rug of religion from under the feet of our youth by spreading bad veil in the society. Anytime badly veiled women and girls sport strong makeup to deviate a young man from the right path, the enemy will be pleased with victory.

0745 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad has been relocated to Evin Prison's general ward, but he says he will continue his hunger strike until a verdict is issued and he is freed.

0740 GMT: The Students Fast. Azad University students, despite pressure from intelligence agents, observed a one-day political fast on Wednesday to mark the 100th day of student Ali Malihi’s detention. The fast was broken on Thursday in an Iftar ceremony outside Evin Prison.

0735 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Mohammad Hashemi, a member of the Expediency Council and brother of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has again declared --- citing Ayatollah Khomeini --- "If people are not satisfied by a Government, the nezam [Iranian system] lacks acceptance."

0725 GMT: Rahnavard Speaks. Le Monde publishes an interview with Zahra Rahnavard, activist and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, who declares, "Victory will come one day to the Iranian people," and links the Green and women's movements:

[This] is a movement that has echoes claims of the Iranian people that actually date back to over a hundred years, the Constitutional Revolution of 1906. And the presidential election was an opportunity to remember: freedom, rule of law, democracy. The Green Movement does not want the regime to fall; what it wants is reform. It comes from civil society and peaceful means. I repeat, peaceful, even if the regime has no shortage of weapons and uses violence.

This movement is expressed in various ways through meetings, rallies, civil society, and  literary and artistic expressions. All components of society are represented: teachers, workers, athletes, artists, representatives of ethnic minorities....Women, who represent half of the population, and students have played a special role and have an important place within the movement.

My message to Iranian women is, "Move on, raise your level of knowledge and studies to be eventually accepted as full citizens." I campaign for it and against polygamy, violence, and decades of discrimination. Iranian women have no choice; they must continue the fight.

0645 GMT: Karroubi Intervenes. The morning starts with news of a long letter from Mehdi Karroubi to Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili.

Much of the letter is Karroubi's well-known call for justice and responsibilty. He harshly condemns the violation of the Islamic Republic's Constitution and wonders who will defend it: the Parliament is not serving as a representative of the public and the judiciary is not defending people's rights. Karroubi also complains about the "destruction of revolutionary personalities", economic decline, and the President's lack of diplomacy, "which has led to the humiliation of the Iranian people".

There is a twist, however. Karroubi defends the late Ayatollah Khomeini and Mir Hossein Mousavi against recent accusations that they accepted executions in the 1980s.

An EA correspondent evaluates, "."With Mousavi and Khomeini being accused of accepting executions during their rule, criticism has reached the core of this Iranian system. Although Karroubi defends him and Khomeini, he also complains that those incidents were never investigated. Clever tactics, declaring himself as the most acceptable Green candidate. In any case the genie is out of the bottle."