The Latest from Iran (19 May): Fallout

2035 GMT: The Uranium Sideshow. President Obama issued a boiler-plate, stay-the-course statement at a press conference alongside President Felipe Calderon of Mexico (which happens to have a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council):

"[We agree] on the need for Iran to uphold its international obligations or face increased sanctions and pressure, including UN sanctions. And I'm pleased that we've reached an agreement with our P5-plus-1 partners on a strong resolution that we now have shared with our Security Council partners.

Obama did not mention, for he was not asked, why he had encouraged Turkey to pursue talks with Iran leading to the uranium swap agreement in Tehran on Monday.

1845 GMT:Political Prisoner Watch. Housewife Masoumeh Yavari has been given a seven-year jail term at Rajai-Shahr Prison in Karaj. Yavari had been accused of "mohareb" (war against God), and the prosecutor had asked for the death penalty.

Zahra Jabbari, married and the mother of one child, has been sentenced to 4 years in prison. Jabbari was arrested during Qods Day protests on 18 September.

Student Activist Mohammad Yousef Rashidi has been handed a one-year jail term.

NEW Iran’s Uranium: Why Can’t the US Take Yes for an Answer? (Parsi)
NEW Iran’s Uranium: Washington “Can’t Afford to Look Ridiculous”, Makes Ridiculous Move (Emery)
NEW Iran’s Uranium: US Shows a Middle Finger to Tehran…and Turkey and Brazil and… (Gary Sick)
NEW Iran Document: Iranian Labour Unions “This is Not 1979″
Iran Analysis: Washington and the Tehran Nuclear Deal (Parsi)
Iran Alert: Filmmaker Firouz Faces Deportation From UK
Iran Analysis: The Contest at Home Over (and Beyond) the Uranium Agreement (Zahra)
Iran Analysis: Assessing the Tehran Nuclear Deal (Gary Sick)
The Latest from Iran (18 May): Getting Beyond the Uranium Agreement

1700 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The Revolutionary Court in Tehran has sentenced student and women's rights activist Bahareh Hedayat to 9 ½ years in prison: six months for insulting the president, two years for insulting the Leader, five years for anti-state and anti-national security actions, and two years, previously suspended, for organizing a gathering in June 2006.


Milad Asadi, another senior member of the alumni organisation Advar-e Tahkim Vahdat, has been sentenced to 7 years in prison.

Bahareh Hedayat's statement for Iran's National Student Day in December 2009:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtUvxtH00Lc[/youtube]

1200 GMT: The Uranium Battle. Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's atomic energy agency, has issued the highest-level reaction to the US pursuit of a sanctions resolution at the United Nations, "They won't prevail and by pursuing the passing of a new resolution they are discrediting themselves in public opinion."

0940 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Masoud Heidari, the former head of the Iranian Labour News Agency,was released from prison on Tuesday. On Sunday, Heidari had begun serving a three-month prison sentence.

0840 GMT: Alice-in-Wonderland Media Statement of Day. I guess the editors of The New York Times have not paid any attention to the events of the last 72 hours:

Brazil and Turkey should join the other major players and vote for the Security Council resolution. Even before that, they should go back to Tehran and press the mullahs to make a credible compromise and begin serious negotiations.

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Tahereh Saeedi, the wife of detained film director Jafar Panahi, has told Rah-e-Sabz that her husband has been on hunger strike since Sunday.

Panahi has demanded access to his lawyer, visits by his family, and an unconditional release until a court hearing is held.

Six journalists and cultural activists --- Mahnaz Karimi, Hafez Sardarpour, Mehdi Zeynali, Nader Azizi, Mustafa Jamshidi, and Ramin Jabbari --- were arrested on Monday in Iranian Azerbaijan.

0820 GMT: Shutting Down the Inquiry. Parleman News writes that a reformist proposal to investigate Iran's prisons has been rejected by the Parliament. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani insists that the Majlis continues to observe prisons and has forwarded a report to the National Security Council.

0815 GMT: Claim of Day (No, It's Not about Uranium). Rah-e-Sabz claims new accusations of impropriety against Mohammad Javad Larijani, a high-ranking official in the judiciary. The website asserts that a deal has been struck: Ahmadinejad will not press a corruption case against Larijani, while the official and his powerful brothers will drop charges against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi.

0810 GMT: And There's Always a "Terrorism" Story. Press TV features a summary of its interview with Abdolmalek Rigi, the captured leader of the Baluch insurgent group Jundullah: "While in Morocco, suspected Israeli or US agents had given him a list of people to assassinate in Tehran."

0755 GMT: Evaluating the Uranium/Sanctions Story. We have three analyses of the US response to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement: Trita Parsi asks why Washington cannot take Yes for an answer, Chris Emery suggests it is because the US feels it "cannot afford to look  ridiculous", and Gary Sick thinks Washington just showed the middle finger not only to Tehran but to Turkey, Brazil, and a lot of other countries.

The Washington Post has posted a copy of the sanctions resolution introduced by the US into the United Nations Security Council.

0635 GMT: Nuclear Spin of Day. Peyke Iran tries an different angle to attack the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement. The website claims that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip is angry about his reception in Tehran: he and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva were offered an Iranian breakfast of sangak bread, Bulgarian white cheese, walnuts, and inferior dried fruit.

0630 GMT: Mousavi's Bodyguard. More manoeuvring over Monday's arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi's head of security, Ahmad Yazdanfar. Khabar Online claims that Yazdanfar "withdrew" from his position, and the story that he was detained is a fiction of the "leaders of sedition" and foreign media.

Opposition outlets have responded that Yazdanfar is not "political" at all but a simple security officer. Through his arrest and the kidnapping, terror, and torture of others, the Government is slowly becoming a terrorist group.

0615 GMT: Iran's Debate on the Tehran Deal. The Government is still facing some opposition to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement. From the conservative wing, Ahmad Tavakoli (and possibly, through indirect means, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani) made challenges on Tuesday. On the reformist side, Darius Ghanbari asked why Iran had waited seven months and expended so much capital in its foreign policy, only to move towards an agreement it could have had in October.

The response of pro-Government politicians is that this is only a "declaration", not a "treaty", so Tehran has not entered any binding commitments. Or, as Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said, "If the Vienna Group (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China) accepts Iran’s terms and conditions...both parties commit themselves to the implementation” of the deal."

(Which means that Washington's response --- throwing out any consideration of the agreement in favour of a sanctions-first approach --- has sheltered the Ahmadinejad Government against its internal opponents.)

0530 GMT: For many observers, the nuclear sideshow will remain the main event today. The Obama Administration pretty much guaranteed that when, despite the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement on a procedure for a uranium enrichment deal (and despite the small fact that President Obama appears to have encouraged the Turks to pursue the deal --- more on that later), Secretary of State Hillary Clinton loudly and not very politely announced that the US was proceeding with a sanctions resolution in the United Nations.

The resolution was submitted in the late afternoon, so now we will be treated to a lot of posturing on all sides, possibly obscuring this bottom-line assessment, courtesy of the National Iranian American Council: "This is an unbelievably stupid move on the part of the Obama administration. Not only are we rejecting our own terms of the agreement, but we are doing so in as tactless and diplomatically insulting way possible."

Meanwhile, on the centre stage of Iranian politics....

Containing Mousavi

Muhammad Sahimi offers a concise summary of the latest steps by the Government to intimidate Mir Hossein Mousavi ahead of the election anniversary on 12 June, including the arrest of Mousavi's top bodyguard.

The Labour Front

We have posted, in a separate entry, the statement of the Network of Iranian Labor Unions setting out its view of opposition to the Government, "This is Not 1979".

Iran Labor Report posts an overview of recent workers' protests.

Iran's Uranium: US Shows a Middle Finger to Tehran...and Turkey and Brazil and... (Gary Sick)

Gary Sick assesses Washington's response to the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement:

Well, that didn’t take long.

Yesterday I wondered if we were smart enough to declare victory and take yes as an answer from Tehran. Today, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, announced that a new package of sanctions against Iran had been approved by the major powers and would be sent to the UN Security Council later in the day.

Iran’s Uranium: Why Can’t the US Take Yes for an Answer? (Parsi)
Iran’s Uranium: Washington “Can’t Afford to Look Ridiculous”, Makes Ridiculous Move (Emery)

In case anyone overlooked the significance of this action, which followed by one day the announcement by Brazil and Turkey of the successful conclusion of their negotiations with Iran, she added: “I think this announcement is as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we could provide.”


Take that, Tehran! But it turns out that this lifted middle finger was not limited to Iran. Only hours before Clinton’s announcement, the foreign minister of Turkey held his own press conference. Obviously unaware of what was about to happen, he described in some detail not only the tortuous negotiation process with Iran, but his perception that he was acting directly on behalf of the United States.

According to Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, he had been in “constant contact” with Clinton herself and with national security adviser James Jones, while his prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, had face-to-face encouragement from President Obama in December and April.

The objective of Turkey and Brazil was to persuade Iran to accept the terms of an agreement the United States had itself promoted only six months ago as a confidence-building measure and the precursor to more substantive talks. There were twelve visits back and forth between the Turk and his Iranian counterpart, some 40 phone conversations, and eighteen grueling hours of personal negotiations leading up to the presentation of the signed agreement on Monday.

“What they wanted us to do was give the confidence to Iran to do the swap We have done our duty,” said Davutoglu, calling the deal an important step for regional and global peace. “We were told that if Iran gives 1,200 kg without conditions, then the required atmosphere of trust would be created [to avoid sanctions]. So if we do all these things, and they still talk about sanctions … [it] will damage the psychological trust that has been created.”

The Turks and Brazilians, who felt they had “delivered” Iran on the terms demanded by the United States, were surprised and disappointed at the negative reactions from Washington. Little did they know that their success in Tehran, which had been given a 0-30 percent chance just days earlier, came just as the Americans were putting the final touches on a package of sanctions to be presented to the UN Security Council. The Tehran agreement was as welcome as a pothole in the fast lane, and the Americans were not reluctant to let their displeasure be known.

The five major powers had made up their minds (without consulting other members of the Security Council that currently includes both Turkey and Brazil), and these two mid-level powers were told in so many words to get out of the way.

The gratuitous insult aside, which approach do you believe would most likely result in real progress in slowing or halting Iran’s nuclear program? We have been imposing ever-greater sanctions on Iran for more than fifteen years. When we started they had zero centrifuges; today they have in excess of 9,000. To those who believe that one more package of sanctions will do what no other sanctions have done so far, I can only say I admire your unquenchable optimism.

More likely the Turkish ambassador to the UN had it about right when he said quite plainly about sanctions, “They don’t work.”

Would a negotiating track do better, perhaps mediated by two middle-level powers who have built up some credibility with Iran, like Algeria when it finally engineered the end to the US-Iran hostage crisis in 1980-81?  We’ll never know. Tonight the hardliners in Iran (and their American counterparts) are celebrating.

The Iranian hardliners had already begun asking questions about the deal, fearful that Iran had given away too much. Now they don’t have to worry since everyone knows that Iran will never be willing or able to negotiate under the threat of sanctions.

For the Revolutionary Guards it is a huge bonus. As foreign companies are driven away, the Guards progressively take over more and more of the economy. And as restrictions on trade grow, so do their opportunities to manage the immensely profitable smuggling routes. Like their American counterparts, but for different reasons, they thrive on an environment of threat and isolation.

The presidents of Turkey and Brazil have been humiliated. But the Great Powers are confident that their lesser cousins know their place and will show deference when the chips are down. They’ll do what they have to do. They always do.

Don’t they… ?

LATEST Iran Urgent: The Deal on Uranium Enrichment (and US Response)

UPDATE 18 MAY, 1445 GMT: Ahh, so here's the apparent response of the Obama Administration, or at least Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: reduce the Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement to "a number of unanswered questions" and push forward with the high-profile sanctions drive in the United Nations. Clinton's statement, just made to a Senate committee:

“We have reached agreement on a strong draft with the cooperation of both Russia and China. We plan to circulate that draft resolution to the entire Security Council today. And let me say, Mr. Chairman, I think this announcement is as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we could provide.”

Iran Document: Text of Iran-Brazil-Turkey Agreement on Uranium Enrichment

UPDATE 1745 GMT: The US Government has now made its formal response to the Tehran agreement. It's little more than a "hold the line" statement, issued by White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs. It gives no clue as to whether Washington was supportive of the Brazilian-Turkish mediation; instead it sets the next challenge: let's see the proposal go to the International Atomic Energy Agency and, possibly, let's see Iran suspend its unilateral push for 20-percent uranium:

We acknowledge the efforts that have been made by Turkey and Brazil. The proposal announced in Tehran must now be conveyed clearly and authoritatively to the IAEA before it can be considered by the international community. Given Iran’s repeated failure to live up to its own commitments, and the need to address fundamental issues related to Iran’s nuclear program, the United States and international community continue to have serious concerns. While it would be a positive step for Iran to transfer low-enriched uranium off of its soil as it agreed to do last October, Iran said today that it would continue its 20% enrichment, which is a direct violation of UN Security Council resolutions and which the Iranian government originally justified by pointing to the need for fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. Furthermore, the Joint Declaration issued in Tehran is vague about Iran’s willingness to meet with the P5+1 countries to address international concerns about its nuclear program, as it also agreed to do last October.

The United States will continue to work with our international partners, and through the United Nations Security Council, to make it clear to the Iranian government that it must demonstrate through deeds –-- and not simply words –-- its willingness to live up to international obligations or face consequences, including sanctions. Iran must take the steps necessary to assure the international community that its nuclear program is intended exclusively for peaceful purposes, including by complying with U.N. Security Council resolutions and cooperating fully with the IAEA. We remain committed to a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear program, as part of the P5+1 dual track approach, and will be consulting closely with our partners on these developments going forward.

The European Union and Britain have put out similar statements.

UPDATE 1245 GMT: A group of Iranian political activists have declared that today’s uranium agreement, from a “political and economic” stance, is in the interest of the Iranian nation.

Mohammad Bastehnegar, Ezzatollah Sahabi, Taghii Rahmani, Hosein Rafii, Reza Raistoosi, Hossein ShahHosseini, Azam Taleghani, Reza Alijani, and Nezameddin Ghahari asserted that the agreement could end economic sanctions against Iran and lead to “transparency” in Iran’s relationship with the world.

The statement calls for collaboration of both conservative and reformist political activists in supporting this government initiative.

UPDATE 1110 GMT: Trita Parsi gets to the heart of why this arrangement was struck when last October's very similar deal, which reached top-table discussions in Geneva between Iran, the US, and other powers, collapsed. He notes talks between Brazil's Lula and the Supreme Leader: "This is no longer Ahmadinejad's nuclear deal, this is Khamenei's nuclear deal."

UPDATE 1015 GMT: Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has offered more details of the proposed uranium swap at a press conference. From Press TV:

Iran will ask the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] to station its personnel in Turkey to monitor the safe-keeping of the dispatched LEU [Tehran's 1200 kilogrammes low-enriched uranium]....The top diplomat underlined Iran will inform the IAEA of its decision "through official channels" within no more than seven days from the Monday meeting.
"Upon the positive response of the Vienna Group --- which includes Russia, France, the United States and the IAEA --- further details of the exchange will be elaborated through a written agreement and proper arrangement between Iran and the Vienna group that specifically committed themselves to deliver 120 cages of fuel needed for the Tehran research reactor (TRR)," noted Mottaki.

If the Vienna Group accepts Iran's terms and conditions, Mottaki said, both parties will "commit themselves to the implementation" of the deal, which requires Iran to deposit its LEU in Turkey within one month, and in return, the Vienna group will deliver 120 kg of fuel required for the Tehran reactor in no later than one year.

UPDATE 0755 GMT: How big is this story for Iranian state media? Islamic Republic News Agency, noting that "Ahmadinejad raised his hands in victory", devotes 6 of its top 9 stories to the agreement. (Fars, on the other hand, has not stepped into line: its top story is on British Foreign Secretary William Hague speaking about the assassination of a Hamas official in Dubai.)

UPDATE 0645 GMT: The Iran-Brazil-Turkey agreement is for a swap of uranium outside Iran, and just as signficant, it involves the 1200 kilogrammes of Tehran's stock that the US and "Western" countries were seeking last autumn.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Monday that the Tehran government has agreed to a draft proposal whereby Iran will send some 1200 kg of its 3.5 percent enriched uranium over to Turkey in exchange for a total of 120 kg 20 percent....

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will officially receive a letter with regards to the swap deal "within a week".

According to a Press TV correspondent, the swap will take place nearly a month after receiving official approval from the Vienna Group, which consists of representatives from Iran, France, Russia and the US and the IAEA.

Now watch carefully for the reaction from Washington. If it is favourable, even cautiously favourable, we've got a major breakthrough.

---
The dominant story in both Iranian and non-Iranian media today is likely to be the announcement between Iran, Brazil, and Turkey of an agreed procedure for a deal on enrichment of Iran's uranium.

No details will be available until later today, so significant questions remain. It is not clear whether Tehran has given any way to the essential demand of the US and other members of the "5+1" (UK, France, Germany, Russia, China) for a swap of uranium outside Iran. Politically, Washington's position --- has it privately supported the Brazilian and Turkish discussions? --- is murky.

The seriousness of the talks, however, is indicated not only by their 17-hour duration on Sunday but also by the level of involvement. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's postponement on Friday of his trip to Iran did not, in the end, mean that Turkey had withdrawn altogether. Rather, this seems to have been a case of wait-and-see: Turkish "ministers" were involved throughout Sunday: once it was clear that an agreement was possible, Erdogan reversed his position and flew to Tehran, joining Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

The core issue is how Iran's 3.5-percent uranium will be exchanged for 20-percent uranium, needed for the Tehran Research Reactor producing medical isotopes.

The Latest from Iran (16 May): Intimidation After the Executions

2115 GMT: Nuclear Twist (cont.). According to Reuters, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is saying Iran, Turkey, and Brazil have reached agreement on procedure for a uranium swap deal. Details will follow on Monday.

1930 GMT: Nuclear Twist. Reuters is following Turkish television in reporting that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who on Friday had cancelled his trip to Tehran, has reversed his decision and is now in Iran.

The move is a signal that the Iranian talks with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have put a deal on the table which involves Turkish mediation. Could there also be a role for Turkey as a broker in a uranium swap outside Iran?

NEW Iran Blackout: Shutting Down the Movies
Iran: Last Words of Executed Alamhouli “For God’s Sake, Let Me Hear My Mother’s Voice” (Ghazi)
The Latest from Iran (15 May): Executions, Detentions and a Cancellation

1835 GMT: Intimidation (cont.). In a letter to Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, 175 members of Parliament have called for immediate action against opposition figures as "heads of sedition”.


In the letter, read out by conservative MP Hassan Ghafouri Fard in the Majlis, the legislators called for “accelerating” the investigation of complaints against Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi.

The MPs also state that the “heads of the sedition” have no regard for the judicial system in Iran and have attacked Karroubi and Mousavi for their recent remarks against the sudden and unjust execution of five political activists on charges of terrorism.

1630 GMT: The Brazil Dimension (cont.). The Associated Press has a different take on the Lula-Ahmadinejad talks from other reports (see `1600 GMT). While there was no reference to any discussions on uranium enrichment, there was a defense of Iran's nuclear programme:

Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva met with Iranian leaders on Sunday, and called the relationship between the two countries “strategic.”

Speaking in defense of Iran’s right to “independently navigate its course” to seek development and improvement, Silva stressed that a peaceful nuclear research program was within Iran’s sovereign rights.

1600 GMT: The Brazil Dimension. Iranian state media's presentation of today's meetings between President Ahmadinejad and Brazi's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has featured the two leaders' talk of economic co-operation but said nothing about the nuclear issue. mbitions, an initial joint statement from the two leaders was silent on the subject.A joint statement focused on an increase of two-way trade.

Lula also said Brazil will finance 1 billion Euros of food exports to Iran over the next five years to make trade between the two countries less dependent on foreign banks.

1540 GMT: Sentencing Human Rights Activists (In Absentia). Iran has sentenced award-winning women's rights activist Shadi Sadr and fellow activist Mahbubeh Abbas-Gholizadeh to jail and lashes over a protest in 2007.

The lawyer for the two women, Mohammad Mostafai, said Sadr was sentenced to six years in jail and 74 lashes for acting against national security and harming public order. Abbas-Gholizadeh received two-and-a-half years in jail and 30 lashes on similar charges.

(Read Sadr's article, "Getting to the Point on Detentions and Human Rights", her speech at the UN on abuse, justice, and human rights, or her acceptance of the 2009 Human Rights Defenders Tulip award.)

Both women, who are now abroad, were arrested with 30 other protestors at a rally in March 2007 outside a Revolutionary Court where four fellow feminists were on trial.

1325 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More on the arrest of Mohsen Armin, spokesman and senior member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party....

Armin's daughter said security officers, with a search warrant and arrest warrant, took away her father and confiscated his laptop, some documents, and identification cards. Iranian authorities tried to arrest Armin justafter the election and after the Ashura demonstration (27 December), but he was away from home on both occasions.

1200 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Hashemi Rafsanjani, former President and current head of the Expediency Council, has condemned censorship and fabrication of facts, describing policies behind these actions as "futile."

Rafsanjani said that, in today’s world, “[We must] coordinate actions with human principles....We must create an open space and fall into step with the rest of the world.”

1110 GMT: Spin of the Week? A reader kindly alerts us to a reference in the Iranian media to the claimed strike in Kurdistan.

Tabnak insists that any news and pictures of empty streets in Kurdistan's cities were just foreign propaganda and claims that thousands of Kurds marched in support of the "Kurdish Leadership Conference".

1100 GMT: No Connection. Move Along. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has denied any link between Iran's released of French graduate student Clotilde Reiss, arrested last July, and a French court's acquittal of Iranian businessman Majid Kakavand on charges that he exported US military technology to Iran: "The two cases have absolutely no relation with each other."

1010 GMT:  Political Prisoner Watch. Mohsen Armin, spokesman and senior member of the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, has been arrested.

0930 GMT: In the Universities. Rah-e-Sabz carries a report claiming that professors are now being appointed for their willingness to support the Government line rather than for their academic qualifications.

0900 GMT: Conservatives Defend the System (Against Hardliners). The interesting conflict between "Green Movement v. Government" continues with two statements within the establishment warning of "hardliner" challenges.

Mohammad Nabi Habibi, head of the Motalefeh Party has said, "Our discord is like a red carpet for reformists." Majid Ansari of the Combatant Clergy Association argues that the cooperation of "moderate hardliners" and reformists is not a current outside acceptable Iranian politics.

0855 GMT: Beating the Oil Squeeze? Whatever the outcome of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's visit to Tehran on the nuclear front, it looks like Iran can claim a success over oil.

The head of Brazil's energy regulator, Haroldo Lima, has said that Lula and Iranian leaders are likely to sign a memorandum opening the way for Brazilian companies to participate in the modernization of Iran's oil sector: "We have equipment, the engineering and the parts for the oil sector that can help in their modernization."

Lima said that, in exchange, Iran could provide Brazil with drills to help in the exploration of deep-water oil: "In Brazil we have a great shortage of companies that have the capacity to do this exploration. They are making drills available."

0845 GMT: Intimidation (cont.). The Resalat newspaper has continued the threat against Mousavi, fed by regime officials like Gholam-Hossein-Elham of the Guardian Council and Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi: the leaders of "fitna" (sedition) need to feel the iron fist of the law.

0800 GMT: Challenge. Mohammad Hashemi, a member of the Expediency Council and brother of Hashemi Rafsanjani, has declared that if the people do not want it, the Iranian system cannot exist.

0740 GMT: Film Corner. As director Jafar Panahi continues to sit in Evin Prison, we've posted a feature on the latest warning by Iranian authorities to actors and filmmakers: don't cooperate with foreigners without permission.

0730 GMT: Economy Watch. Minister of Welfare and Social Security Sadegh Mahsouli has said that the subsidy reduction plan will start this week in three Iranian provinces.

0715 GMT: That Dangerous Foreign Education. Mohammad Shahryari, a member of Parliament's National Security Committee, has confirmed that the committee is reviewing the situation of 400 Iranian students at British universities.

The 400 are the children of Iranian officials. Karim Abedi, another committee member, had said on Friday, "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has informed Iranian ambassadors abroad to take the actions necessary to prevent the children of Iranian officials from studying at foreign universities."

Shahryari said, "Though no final decision has been made on the return of these children to the country so far, it deems advisable for these people not to study at British universities."

0710 GMT: Speaking of Intimidation.... Member of Parliament Moussa Ghorbani, speaking with Fars News, claims that Sadegh Larijani, the head of Iran's judiciary, has said authorities will pursue those who create “anxiety” in society through text messages.

Ghorbani, who met Larijani on Saturday, said he was told that the judiciary will track down “destructive” text messages which lead to the “anxiety of public opinion”.

0640 GMT: And the Future? Dowlatabadi also gave a lengthy statement about the supposed resolution of 217 post-election cases, and there was further news from his office. Amongst the decisions were the confirmation of six death sentences and the commutation of four to jail terms (see yesterday's updates).

Defenders of the Iranian regime will argue that this establishes the due process and fairness of the judicial system. Those who are more critical may see a carrot-and-stick approach. While giving way on some of the "mohareb" (warriors against God) sentenced to hang, in part because of the reaction to last week's executions and claims that they are linked to political intimidation before 12 June, Tehran is also showing its determination that some protestors will sit on Death Row and could on short notice face the noose.

0620 GMT: A week ago, we were just getting the news of the sudden early-morning executions of 5 Iranians --- Farzad Kamangar, Mehdi Eslamian, Ali Heydarian, Farhad Vakili, and Shirin Alamhouli --- at Evin Prison. Today we begin with the latest attempt to defend the executions, the statement of Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Dowlatabadi as reported by Press TV:

[Dowlatabadi] said that three of the five people were arrested in 2006 for carrying five kilograms of explosives, adding that other weapons including 57 rockets and 600 shells were later confiscated from the terrorists.

He revealed that the five began their terrorist activities shortly after the formation of the Party for Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK) and bombed the governor's office and a state building in the western province of Kermanshah.

“Fortunately they were arrested before carrying out a planned bombing in Tehran.”

Dolatabadi said that the five had been indicted in 2007 and were tried and found guilty in 2008. “They appealed the verdict but the Supreme Court upheld their convictions.”

The prosecutor said that four of the five terrorists were PJAK members and had been directly involved in the terrorist attacks carried out by the group. He added that the four had been convicted of moharebe (waging war on God) and acting against national security.

According to Dolatabadi, the only woman among the four terrorists was arrested in 2008 for an attempted bombing in an IRGC base. “She was tried and found guilty in 2008 and her conviction was upheld in 2010.”

The last of the five was a member of the counterrevolutionary Tondar group and was convicted for complicity in a deadly bombing in the city of Shiraz in 2008, the prosecutor added.

None of Dowlatabadi's assertions above, or in a longer version of the interview in Fars News, are backed up by evidence, thus leaving open the queries that remain over the case (see Thursday's updates).

Just as interesting, however, as Press TV still refuses to name the five executed is the timing of Dowlatabadi's high-profile interview. If the Iranian regime is so secure that these executions were acceptable, in law or in public opinion, why is it continuing to plead the case several days later?

Turkey Inside Line: Latest War between Government and Opposition; New Era in Turkish-Greek Relations

The War of Words between Government & Opposition: On Friday, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Denis Baykal, the recently-resigned leader of the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), traded verbal jabs.

Before his visit to Greece, Erdogan said, "In our society, we are unable to see people who betray their spouses as the injured party." Baykal responded in a statement, "The allegation is another conspiracy against the CHP. The duty of a Prime Minister is not to engage in rumors but to disclose the truth."

Turkey Inside Line: Ankara & Russia Press Israel on Hamas Issue

On the same day, Baykal met high-ranking deputy Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu at his home. Speaking later to a group of journalists in Parliament, Kılıçdaroğlu said Baykal expressed no intention of participating in the CHP convention on 22-23 May. According to Hürriyet, Kılıçdaroğlu is refusing to run against Baykal for the leadership and will only be a candidate if Baykal agrees.


Meanwhile, Nesrin Baytok, the woman alleged to be involved in the sex video scandal, told the Turkish daily Aksam on Thursday that the video is part of a conspiracy and that her family has been very supportive. She added, “I’ve spent 20 years to come this far. I’m not giving up now.”

NGOs are trying to raise their voices against ongoing speculation and discussions in the media. “We are strongly against the media’s treatment of the female deputy figure [Baykal],” said Çiğdem Aydın, the chairwoman of the Association for Women’s Support and Education (KADER). She added, “This wrong perception [of Baykal as the bad figure in the scandal] could kill any future attempt by females to be involved in politics.”

Turkish-Greek Relations in Blossom: In his first visit to Greece since 2004, Erdoğan with 10 ministers and about 100 businessmen called for a "new era" in ties between the two countries. "This will be a start to move Greek-Turkish relations into an improved phase," Erdoğan said during a meeting with Greek President Carolos Papoulias, “I believe ... the 21 accords and cooperation protocols that we will sign with our neighbor and friend Greece will mark the beginning of a new era in our relations.” Erdogan continued:

We intent to stand by you in solidarity and that is why we are visiting you together with my ministers. We must help with this process.

A deal was signed allowing Greece to send at least 1,000 readmission requests for illegal migrants coming from Turkey to Greece. The rest of the accords are on bilateral economic relations. Erdogan said:

We intend to show solidarity with Greece, that is why I am visiting with my ministers. We need to help each other. Our economies supplement each other ... if our two countries cooperate we can maximize the benefits for both our countries.

Turkey's State Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan said the Banks Association of Turkey and the Hellenic Bank Association would cooperate more closely. He added:

The association will extend necessary support if Turkish banks are willing to invest in Greece.

Turkey wants to stand by Greece, not against it, and this will be for the best interests of the two countries.

Turkey and Greece are expected to hold a high-level cooperation council meeting every year with the participation of numerous ministers. The Prime Ministers of the two countries will chair the meeting.

In remarks to the Greek daily Ta Nea on Monday, Turkey's chief European Union negotiator Egemen Bağış called for mutual cuts in military spending, pointing at the severe financial crisis shaking Greece. In an interview with Greece's state television late Thursday, Erdogan said:

Both countries have very large defense budgets. ... We must reduce these expenditures and use the money for other purposes.

In an interview with Turkey's Today's Zaman before Erdogan's visit, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said:

Greece and Turkey will never be able to normalize their relations as long as there are threats in the Aegean with regard to the Greek islands, as long as there are occupation forces in Cyprus. We have to put these things behind us once and for all.

The period from 1999 to 2004 when I talked about the vision of arms reductions between the two countries -- a reduction that would enable our two societies to invest in education, health and culture, rather than in weapons. I am talking about the “peace dividend” that will accrue as a result of confidence-building between our two countries and the removal of any kind of threats. This is the driving force behind Greece’s efforts. This is the vision that must guide our actions. The Aegean can become a sea of peace. All we need to do -- “we” being the leaders of our two countries -- is speak plainly amongst ourselves and to our peoples. We have to remove the gray areas from our relations and devote ourselves to the common future that awaits us in the European family.