Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen: An Introduction to Conflict

The Latest on Iran (23 November): Reading the Signals of Abtahi’s Release

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The clashes between the Yemeni Government and an insurgency from Houthi Shi'a escalated, both in visibility and intensity, when Saudi forces became involved earlier this month, striking Houthi positions. Most of the media attention is now putting the internal conflict not only into a Saudi context but into a regional arena based on Saudi-Iranian rivalry, given Tehran's support for the Houthi.

Writing for Iran Review, Salimeh Daremi offers an overview of the situation:

Military clashes between government forces of Yemen and al-Houthi Shiites in Saada province are gradually turning into a full-blown, destructive war. Yemen is meanwhile grappling with various crises which reflect wide gaps between the Government of Abdullah Saleh and the opposition in north Yemen as a result of increasing influence of the separatist forces.

Widespread clashes in Saada, which are turning into a full-fledged war, can be very serious for Yemen and ultimately lead to a regional crisis. The ongoing developments in Saada show that both sides are not trying to find another way, but war, to achieve their goals and only believe in use of weapons. The present war in Yemen is not acceptable and the clashing parties should seek other solutions because they have already signed the Doha Agreement and its subsequent obligations.

At the same time, intervention of regional countries in the crisis calls for a regional consensus to reach a final solution and sustainable peace. Six wars, which have broken out between al-Houthi insurgents and the central government since 2004, have proven that foreign interventions are at work to fan the flames of clashes. Explicit intervention of Saudi Arabia in Yemen is a good instance to the point. On the other hand, it seems that Yemeni authorities are trying to attract international support subsequent to intensification of clashes between government forces and al-Houthi Shiites to suppress separatist tendencies.

Yemeni security and military officials have been in talks with the Americans over signing of a joint security agreement which would pave the way for such support. On the other hand, allegations about Tehran’s military and financial support for Shiites in Saada have turned the conflicts into a regional crisis. Although Iran has consistently rejected those allegations, but Arab countries consider Iran a threat to regional security. This viewpoint has its roots in pre-revolution Iran when the country was playing the role of a regional gendarme. Concerns about export of the Islamic Revolution as well as Iran’s support for such groups as Hamas and Hezbollah combined with Iran’s nuclear standoff in recent years are major factors which have sustained that assumption after the victory of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Iranian media do not believe that al-Houthi tribe is any danger to Yemen and sympathize with the Shias and this has given rise to allegations that Iran is militarily and financially supporting Yemeni Shias. At the same time, Iranian authorities have reacted to the allegations by Yemenis officials. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has noted that Iran does not intend to foster tension in any place as this would be against its policies and national interests.

Summarizing the reasons behind the current crisis to foreign intervention is simplistic and other factors including ignoring the rights of the Shias and inattention to the Doha Agreement should be taken into account when analyzing this crisis. It seems that suspicions about Tehran’s role in the uprising cannot be dispelled through official stances taken by the Iranian officials. Some claims raised by Yemen like seizing a ship carrying Iranian arms for al-Houthi insurgents have led analysts to argue that the clashes in Yemen are, in fact, an indirect confrontation between Tehran and Riyadh. No solid proof, however, has been thus far produced by authorities in Sana’a to validate their claims about Iran supporting al-Houthi insurgents.

The root cause of anti-Iranian allegations by Saudi and Yemeni officials should be sought in recent regional developments. Domestic developments in Iran following the June presidential elections, subsequent negotiations between Iran and 5+1 on the Iranian nuclear case and concerns among US allies in the Persian Gulf over a possible reconciliation between Tehran and Washington, the improved situation of Lebanese resistance movement after publication of Goldstone report, Riyadh’s intervention in Lebanon and establishment of a national alliance government in that country are among major regional developments which have given rise to those allegations.

The Real Threat to Iran: The Spies of the Daily Show

Iran Video & Text: Maziar Bahari on His 118 Days in Detention
The Latest on Iran (23 November): Reading the Signals of Abtahi’s Release

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This is so surreal I'm not even sure Jon Stewart and his writers could have made it up. In June, we noted with admiration, sorrow, and irony the five-day package of Jason Jones of The Daily Show from Iran, filmed just before the Presidential election. In one of the episodes, he spoke to three individuals who would be arrested within days of the 12 June vote: Ebrahim Yazdi, who was briefly detained, former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was released on bail this weekend after more than five months in prison (although facing a six-year prison sentence), and Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari, who was held for almost four months.

This from Bahari's account, published in Newsweek and re-posted on Enduring America (Bahari also discusses the incident in his CNN interview):

I saw the flicker of a laptop monitor under my blindfold. Then I heard someone speaking. It was a recording of another prisoner's confession. "It's not that one," said the second interrogator. "It's the one marked 'Spy in coffee shop.' " Mr. Rosewater fumbled with the computer. The other man stepped in to change the DVD. And then I heard the voice of Jon Stewart on The Daily Show.

Only a few weeks earlier, hundreds of foreign reporters had been allowed into the country in the run-up to the election. Among them was Jason Jones, a "correspondent" for Stewart's satirical news program. Jason interviewed me in a Tehran coffee shop, pretending to be a thick-skulled American. He dressed like some character out of a B movie about mercenaries in the Middle East—with a checkered Palestinian kaffiyeh around his neck and dark sunglasses. The "interview" was very short. Jason asked me why Iran was evil. I answered that Iran was not evil. I added that, as a matter of fact, Iran and America shared many enemies and interests in common. But the interrogators weren't interested in what I was saying. They were fixated on Jason.

"Why is this American dressed like a spy, Mr. Bahari?" asked the new man.

"He is pretending to be a spy. It's part of a comedy show," I answered.

"Tell the truth!" Mr. Rosewater shouted. "What is so funny about sitting in a coffee shop with a kaffiyeh and sunglasses?"

"It's just a joke. Nothing serious. It's stupid." I was getting worried. "I hope you are not suggesting that he is a real spy."

"Can you tell us why an American journalist pretending to be a spy has chosen you to interview?" asked the man with the creases. "We know from your contacts and background that you told them who to interview for their program." The other Iranians interviewed in Jason's report—a former vice president and a former foreign minister—had been ar-rested a week before me as part of the IRGC's sweeping crackdown. "It's just comedy," I said, feeling weak.

"Do you think it's also funny that you say Iran and America have a lot in common?" Mr. Rosewater asked, declaring that he was losing patience with me. He took my left ear in his hand and started to squeeze it as if he were wringing out a lemon. Then he whispered into it. "This kind of behavior will not help you. Many people have rotted in this prison. You can be one of them."

Iran Revelation: Pro-Government MP Admits Election Was Manipulated

The Latest on Iran (23 November): Reading the Signals of Abtahi’s Release

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Yesterday, I noticed this entry in the blog of Pedestrian, Sidewalk Lyrics:

This has got to be one of the most important pieces of – official state – news to get out after the election.

Ali Reza Zakani, a hardline, pro-government MP and a member of Parliament’s election committee, in a speech he gave at Imam Sadegh University has said, that based on two polls the day before the election by both the Interior Minister and the Ministry of Intelligence, the results would be close between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad. According to the Supreme National Security Council's reports the day before the election, the same results were predicted.

I had noted the Zakani statement in our updates but my translation was not strong to bring out the analysis offered by Pedestrian. He adds, from Zakani's speech, the evidence of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei that votes were manipulated through "ballot-stuffing" in the last five hours of the day.

And there is this: "In the statement released by the six-member Parliamentary committee, the lines congratulating Ahmadinejad were crossed out and this was done by “a source close to the speaker of parliament” [Ali Larijani] who stated that “fraud in the election” had taken place.

Beyond the election, here's a bonus revelation which indicates why the National Unity Plan has been stalled if not demolished and points to the deep split in the conservative/principlist movement between those who back the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, and those who oppose him:

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Pedestrian's summary

On the committee’s tasks:

The committee consisted of me, Katouzian, Naderan, Abbaspour, Aboutorrabi and Kazem Jalali. We met with all three candidates. On the Tuesday following the election, we met with Mir Hossein Mousavi for one and half hours and Mousavi had nothing special to say.

Rafsanjani’s opinion was a council other than the Guardian Council

A day after meeting with Mousavi, we went to meet with Rafsanjani. Rafsanjani stressed: “Mousavi did not give you all his arguments, he hid them from you. Because the day after the election, Khatami, Mousavi and Seyed Hassan [Khomeini] called me and came to my office.” Rafsanjani said that Mousavi’s request was another election and he also pointed out that he had reminded them [Mousavi and Khatami] to stick to the laws. He [Rafsanjani] also had a council other than the Guardian Council in mind to investigate the allegations.

Rafsanjani said that society has changed and that students are now at the forefront as opposed to the clerics. We can’t get these 3.5 million people to go home, we should meet their demands ourselves.

Regarding Rafsanjani’s letter to the Supreme Leader:

[A few days before the election, Rafsanjani wrote a letter to the Leader in which he warned of "forces" who wanted to create chaos in the election.]

Rafsanjani said that he had first sent the letter in private but because the Leader did not respond, he went public with it.

A few weeks before the election they [Mousavi camp] had found out that they would not succeed in the election, so they had planned to hit the streets and to slowly take away the leader’s powers. They have been working on this since the 1980s to slowly form a core outside the country, and they were even successful at bringing people like Nategh Nouri [Khatami's main rival in the 1997 presidential election] to their side.

Zakani referred to the Unity Plan brought forth by Nategh Nouri and said, “They wanted to make Larijani president and it’s interesting that even Rafsanjani came out and said that the unity plan is not my plan. It was Larijani and Nategh Nouri’s.”

Overall this faction used all its capacities and used the online world to the best of its advantage. After the sixth parliament [when all the reformist MPs were banned from running again] the reformists reached the conclusion that their agendas would go nowhere, so they organized well throughout the years and we saw that even groups of 20 to 30 hooligans were organized and were able to create chaos.

The government polls showed that the election would go to a second round

All the polls, even the ones conducted by the university showed that Ahmadinejad would win. Then, on the days before the election, on June 10th and June 11th, polls by the interior ministry and ministry of intelligence and also the Supreme Security Council indicated that voting would go to a second round.

After the elections, we understood that those forces which planned to create chaos even had members in the ministries.

Rezaie said that he would follow his complaints in a lawful manner

In a meeting we had with Rafsanjani, he said that Rezaie believed 32 million votes were cast in this election and that the remaining 8 million votes were fraudulent. He said that up to 5 p.m. on election day, 17 million votes were cast and it was impossible to have another 21 million votes in 5 hours [voting ended at 10 p.m.].

Later on representatives for all four candidates had a meeting with the Leader and criticized the process in the harshest ways.

We were willing to count all the boxes

Referring to the committee’s meeting with Karroubi: Karroubi also made claims of fraud and he said that last time [in 2005], he had 3 to 4 million votes and this had decreased to 300,000. His allegation was that in some voting center in a town like Bojnourd, he’d had 200 votes [in a box] before, and he had that this time too. But in the remaining 700 boxes in that town, he’d had a total of 400 votes. We told him we’d be willing to count all 700 boxes.

This is how the counting process works: after the counting of votes in each box is complete, the results are written on five sheets and the representatives at that center sign them. One goes inside the box, two go to the interior ministry and the remaining two to the Guardian Council. Therefore, the difference between the Council’s result during counting with that of the interior ministry is not an indicator of anything and we must wait for the final result.

In the committee’s final statement, the congratulatory note to the president was crossed out

The Friday Prayer led by Rafsanjani (17 July)

Rafsanjani claimed that on the day of the Friday prayer, the population was split 50-50 and apparently Larijani was the one to give him this estimate.

Israel-Palestine: Peres Says Settlements Halt When Peace Talks Start

On Sunday, Israeli President Shimon Peres met with his Egyptian counterpart Hosni Mubarak in Cairo. Peres stated that Israel was ready to stop settlement construction in the West Bank as soon as negotiations with Palestinians started:

The minute we shall start to negotiate there won't be new settlements, there won't be confiscation of land. Unfortunately, it's a marginal issue; it is some building of houses that became a central issue for the wrong reasons. My answer is even this issue can be settled by negotiations and agreement.

Asked about Peres's words regarding settlements, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that he was unaware of any new peace initiative, as he appointed the former ambassador to the United Nations, Yitzhak Levanon, as Israel's new envoy to Cairo.

Lieberman may be trying to ameliorate his personal image in Cairo through a new accommodation but Peres's dovish statement is still far from satisfying the people of the region. There was no clarification whether his promise would include a full halt of construction, given Israel's standard condition of "natural growth". Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated Peres's words so far yet he also emphasized that Jerusalem and "natural growth" would not be included in any deal with the Palestinians.

Middle East Inside Line: Israel's Government Splits over Relations with Turkey?

Middle East Analysis: A Restoration of Relations between Turkey and Israel?

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It appears that a significant split is opening within the Israeli Government.

On Sunday, Israel's Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer departed with 20 businesspeople for a three-day visit to Turkey. Before his departure, he signalled that Ankara could return to a position as mediator of Israel's conflict: "As a regional power and Muslim democracy, Turkey has the ability to bridge the gaps between us and our neighbors and bring about normalization and co-existence in the region."

However, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman harshly opposed any plan bringing Ankara back to the table. Lieberman said, "I don't think that Turkey's position as a mediator between Israel and Syria can be restored in light of [the Turkish leadership's] slurs against Israel and its statements about preferring a Sudanese murderer to Israel's prime minister."