Middle East Analysis: What Has Happened to the Israeli "Left"?

Speaking to Ma'ariv, Israel's Industry, Trade, and Labor Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer (Labor Party) said over the weekend:

In the current sociopolitical situation, only a leader from the Right could pass a peace process through the nation.

[Prime Minister Menachem] Begin returned the Sinai. Could a Labor leader do that? Could a Labor leader have dared evacuate Gaza and destroy the settlements?

[Prime Minister Yitzhak] Rabin was killed just for Oslo [1993 accords with the Palestine Liberation Organization]. Does anyone think I could have evacuated Gaza? Only a leader from the Right could bring such a change. There is nothing we can do. That's the reality. Take it or leave it.

In Ben-Eliezer's mind, the relationship between Israeli right and left is almost independent from each other. The left can show no progress while the right has given all the "concessions" for the sake of the peace process. Indeed, he accused Labor of having a "self-destructive virus" and of failing to develop a new generation of leaders.

Israel-Palestine: Peres Says Settlements Halt When Peace Talks Start

Ben-Eliezer praised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the close relationship between the premier and Defense Minister Ehud Barak:

Bibi wants to advance the diplomatic process with the Palestinians more than any leader I know. Despite the pressure he faces, he makes an effort day and night to reach a breakthrough.

Bibi and Barak broadcast the same language. They understand each other. They complete each other.

When asked why the public was heading toward the right, he said that "the nation is tired" and "sick of the Arabs."

The story is not ending up at here. Ben-Eliezer is answering the question of Haaretz's Yitzhak Laor, "Why has the left in Israel vanished?" In his analysis, Laor see the secular-religious consensus in the alliance between Netanyahu and Barak today. Against intimidations and pressures on this consensus, in which religious observers ignore the rights of Palestinians due to "the given rights from God" and secular people ignore the same rights because Israel is militarily and economically more powerful, he accues the masses of being obedient and afraid to oppose their leaders.

How can Mr. Ben-Eliezer explain Netanyahu's decision on declaring Jerusalem as "the eternal capital of Israel" and his insistence on "the natural growth" in the West Bank settlements? This scene is one of the suffering of the "left" in Israel, as elsewhere, since the demise of the Soviet Union and since the post-9/11 era's securitizing atmosphere. Israel can now claim a golden age to embed its policies into aggressive actions, as it did during the offensive in Gaza, and/or to play the "three monkeys", as it is doing right now on the settlements issue.

Is there any chance that the dead can come to life through resistance, as Laor argues, or are we now bound to invest our hopes in the Netanyahu-Barak alliance?

Iran: While the President's Away.....The Contest Inside Tehran's Establishment

I could be overreading the situation, but I sense nervousness and confusion within the Iranian establishment. That emerged yesterday in the conflicting stories over the objections of key members of Parliament, and specifically Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, to the rule of President Ahmadinejad. Of course, there have been differences between Parliament and Ahmadinejad on the economic issues before the election, let alone after the inauguration. The anger over the economic proposals, especially the way they have been pursued by Ahmadinejad, is rising, with the injection of the accusations not only of mismanagement but of dubious practices and possibly corruption.

The Latest from Iran (24 November): A Larijani-Rafsanjani Alliance?

The reason for that appears to be a political contest behind the economic foreground. Look carefully at the conflicting stories in the same publication, Khabar, yesterday, and here is what emerges. While some members of Parliament are eager to rally round Ahmadinejad and claim that the dispute is being whipped up by outside forces, Larijani's criticism moves from the battle over subsidies and taxes to the manner in which Ahmadinejad is wielding authority. Dictator" is a pretty strong word, even if the President is not directly named, and Larijani's defense of Hashemi Rafsanjani against the attacks, fed if not led by Ahmadinejad allies, is just as telling.



The catalyst for this may be the collapse of the National Unity Plan. Consider that the Plan, in which Larijani and Rafsanjani both had a hand, would have curbed Ahmadinejad's authority and given both his adversaries roles in the revision of the Iranian system. And consider the drama of this weekend's statement by pro-Government MP Ali Zakani behind the "election may be rigged" headline: the declaration that the intent of the Unity Plan was a Larijani Presidency. Indeed, it may be that Zakani's intention was not to bring the election into question but to claim, albeit in garbled form, that Larijani and Mousavi had put forth the false image of a close election to try and pull out a coup against Ahmadinejad.

No surprise, then, that Larijani has spoken out. No surprise that Hashemi Rafsanjani's office has claimed that Zakani, in his speech, made up the quotes from the former President.

Remember, all of this is happening while the leadership of the Green movement is in a quiet phase. And, while the university demonstrations continue day after day, the intrigues are occurring behind closed doors as well as in speeches beyond the campuses. All of this has developed while Rafsanjani has been on the defensive and quieted, although there are signs that he may now be emerging for a fightback.

Meanwhile, the Revoutionary Guard makes its own moves with military exercises and loud announcements. And the fight over how to handle the "enemy" leads to more arrests and the muddled compromise of prison sentences for the biggest reformist names while letting them free on bail during appeals.

Some EA readers and other observers use the word "implosion" in their projections of the near-future. I don't, preferring "re-alignment". But it is a contested re-alignment, and political swords may soon be drawn.

The Latest on Iran (23 November): Releases, Rumours, and Battles

NEW Iran: Economics, Missing Money, and Ahmadinejad v. Parliament
NEW Latest Iran Video: Protest at Khaje Nasir University (22 November)
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NEW Iran Revelation: Pro-Government MP Admits Election Was Manipulated
Iran Video and Text: Maziar Bahari on His 118 Days in Detention
Video and English Text: Mousavi Interview with Kalemeh (21 November)
The Latest from Iran (22 November): Abtahi Sentenced, Ahmadinejad Scrambles

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2030 GMT: Punishment Going Up. Reports now indicate that Ahmad Zeidabadi, whose sentencing we reported earlier (1620 GMT), received a six-year prison sentence. In addition, he will spend five years in exile in the northeastern city of Gonabad and be banned from civil activities for life. Bail for his freedom while the case is appealed is $500,000.

2025 GMT: Ahmadinejad in Brazil. That's right, it's a second continent today on the I'm a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour (see 0635 GMT), though there is little more than a picture to report.

1925 GMT: More on Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Khabar Online (the online version of the newspaper which either chose to close today in favour of Web publication or which has been suspended by the Government) is schizophrenic over a possible bust-up between the Parliament and the President.

The English-language version goes to great pains to deny tries to curb talk of a rift, with MPs blaming media and anti-Ahmadinejad opposition for the rumours. The Persian-language site, however, highlights a speech by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani warning against "dictatorship" and defending former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.



1645 GMT: We've posted a video of yesterday's demonstration, one in a series of ongoing protests, at Khaje Nasir University.

And it looks like we might be covering a major emerging story of the conflict between Iran's Parliament, specifically Speaker Ali Larijani, and President Ahmadinejad. The first installment has been posted; more to come after we take a break for academic duties.

1620 GMT: Journalist and reformist activist Ahmad Zeidabadi has reportedly been sentenced to five years in prison and released on $350,000 bail while the verdict is appealed.

1535 GMT: Here's Why Obama's Engagement Lives. Skip the headlines in the "mainstream" US press and go to Halifax, Canada, where Washington's officials are urging Iran to "engage" the West.

On the surface, Ellen Tauscher, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security talked tough to the delegates at the security forum, "We would prefer that the Iranian regime follow through on the opportunity to engage....[Tehran] asked for engagement with the United States. It has it. Now what is it going to do? Is it going to stand up and say that they're going to take our deal... or are they going to use some other flimsy excuse to duck."

The overriding point is, however, that Tauscher's comments were based on a continued engagement rather than cut-off of talks with Iran. Why might that be? The security forum's main item for discussion, Afghanistan, is the blunt answer. Iran is the prevailing outside power in western Afghanistan, so it has a place in the future American plans for the country.

So while some table-thumpers at the gathering like former Bush National Security Advisor, Stephen Hadley, hinted that Israel may strike Iran, don't be fooled. The Obama Administration, caught up in its Afghan conundrum, cannot afford renewed hostility with Tehran.

1525 GMT: More Iran-Russia conflict. The tension between Tehran and Moscow, which is a key motive for the Iranian counter-proposal on uranium enrichment, emerged again today. Iran's deputy foreign minister Manouchehr Mohammadi declared, “The problems regarding the Bushehr plant has a technical as well as a political aspect. The Russians… want to launch the plant under certain conditions, but we will not surrender to them."

1255 GMT: Not Big Politics, Just a Baha'i Temple. Appears that Hamshahri was not closed because of a major political move within the Iranian regime but because it included a tourist advertisement showing a Baha'i temple.

1220 GMT: More Bust-Up, Another Paper Banned. Now it's the principlist newspaper Hamshahri which has been banned.

However, an Iranian activist now reports that Hamshahri will be suspended for only a few hours and will likely reappear today.

1050 GMT: A Shot at Larijani? The word is spreading that Khabar, the principlist newspaper close to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has been closed by Government order this morning. I'm sensing a real bust-up between Larijani and the allies of President Ahmadinejad (see 0555 GMT and the separate entry on MP Ali Reza Zamani's revelations).

1025 GMT: Rumour of the Day (Denied). On Sunday we noted that questions were being raised about the whereabouts of former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi, unseen in public for two months, with the most provocative rumour that he was in Evin Prison.

Still no verification of those claims, but at least one conservative Iranian website has gone to the trouble of noticing and denying them. Parcham says Mortazavi, now one of Iran's Deputy Prosecutor Generals, is being reclusive because he is waiting to be confirmed as the new division chief handling financial crimes.

0905 GMT: Bluster. Of course, even if the air-defence show is propaganda (see 0810 GMT), that doesn't mean the Revolutionary Guard will do it quietly (especially if, as I think, this is being done to undercut those in the Iranian establishment pushing for a deal or, alternatively, to cover up any impression of "weakness" from such a bargain).

"One step out of line and Israeli warplanes will be completely destroyed," IRGC Air Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh declared. "Even if they escape our sophisticated defense system, they will never see their bases again; because our surface-to-surface missiles are on their marks to target Israeli military bases before the dust settles."

0810 GMT: Shrug. The Washington Post devotes its Iran article this morning to Sunday's air defence exercise, loudly announced by Iran's military --- not surprising, given the supposed drama and the "military warning to Israel" theme in the Post's sub-headline.

We had not even bothered to mention the exercise, which was clearly a propaganda move by Iranian commanders rather than a significant military development. If there is any importance here, it lies in the relationship to the more important story: Iran's uranium enrichment talks with the "West". Is the Revolutionary Guard fighting back against those Iranian leaders who want a deal --- which is still very much on the table, despite the Post's limited knowledge of it --- through their aggressive posturing?

0800 GMT: Yesterday Pedestrian posted a most interesting speech from pro-Government, high-ranking member of Parliament Ali Reza Zamani which is a virtual admission of election fraud. We've put up the blog, as well as our analysis, in a separate entry.

0635 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's I'm a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour has opened in Gambia with talk of expanding investments in industry and agriculture.

0555 GMT: Mohammad Javad Larijani, the high-ranking judiciary official, has stepped beyond his official brief to intervene on the nuclear issue. He declared Sunday, "Iran has "many reasons 2 distrust West, but they have no reason 2 distrust us," and added:

If the West won't sell 20% enriched uranium [for the Tehran medical research reactor], we will produce it ourselves. To produce 20% enriched uranium we must change orientation of centrifuges. We know how & we will do it.

MJ Larijani, joins his brothers, Speaker of Parliament Ali and head of judiciary Sadegh (who also went beyond his designated position to speak out), in criticising the Vienna deal for uranium enrichment. However, the question is left open: are the Larijanis wiling to accept the Iran Government's counter-offer of a "swap" inside the country?

0545 GMT: For the opposition, Sunday's headline event was confirmation of the release of Mohammad Ali Abtahi from more than five months in detention. The photograph of Abtahi and his family is one of the most joyous pictures amdist and despite the post-12 June conflict.

It should not be forgotten that Abtahi was sentenced to six years in jail and is only free on a very high ($700,000) bail while he appeals. Others were also sentenced this weekend, including the journalist Mohammad Atrianfar, although the prison terms are not yet known.

Still, the symbolism and impact of Abtahi's release should be noted. As the Green movement tries to withstand yet more arrests of activists and student leaders and prepares for the 16 Azar (7 December) protests, the freeing of the former Vice President --- accompanied by his promise to resume blogging --- is a welcome boost.

It also may be a sign that there may be a limited fightback within the regime against the power of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. More and more evidence is accumulating, as in journalist Maziar Bahari's account released this weekend, of the Revolutionary Guard's key, perhaps dominant, role in overseeing detentions and eclipsing the power of other agencies like the Ministry of Intelligence and Iran's judiciary. In recent weeks, high-ranking judiciary officials and members of Parliament have been demanding a process to "wrap up" the detentions with formal sentences; since last Tuesday, it seems that the trials and verdicts have accelerated.

Latest Iran Video: Protest at Khaje Nasir University (22 November)

Students of the technical faculty of Khaje Nasir University in Tehran protesting against the arrest of two student activists of this university without any clear charges:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BElowJvWVhs[/youtube]

SEE ALSO: The Latest on Iran (23 November): Reading the Signals of Abtahi’s Release

Iran: Economics, Missing Money, and Ahmadinejad v. Parliament

We have followed closely the President's contest with Parliament over his economic policies, but an article in Rooz Online indicates that this may be only the tip of the political iceberg. As our updates today are also indicating, there may be a showdown between Ahmadinejad and the Majlis over charges of mismanagement and, implicitly if not explicitly corruption.

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani fired another shot yesterday:

The Majlis can consider judicial action against the administration’s refusal to provide it with reports. We have reminded the administration orally and in writing of the urgency of receiving reports, but unfortunately the reports have not arrived. The Economics Committee can investigate the issue and present its finding to the Majlis so that the necessary judicial steps can be taken to receive the requested reports.

SEE ALSO: The Latest on Iran (23 November): Reading the Signals of Abtahi’s Release

Larijani's rather bureaucratic statement rests upon a potentially explosive Parliamentary committee report on Ahmadinejad's privatisation policies:


“The money that the administration has deposited into the treasury from the proceeds of privatizing public entities is 47.8 percent less than the amount passed in the 2008 budget bill.” The reason for the drop in revenues is hinted at in another passage, criticising the administration for selling off companies without changing their management or structure. The firms are not being bought by private entities but by "quasi-governmental" groups who reap the profits of the change of ownership:

A large portion of the 190 thousand and 114 billion Rials of the purchased stock until October 2009 in the name of privatizing state-owner entities was essentially purchased not by private entities but by entities affiliated with state institutions that are not part of the private sector.

The report notes the distribution of the millions of dollars of stock in large state-owned enterprises to families, with the administration refusing to pay dividends on the stocks and, thus not deposited the proceeds of payments to the national treasury.

Even more provocative, however, is the report's citation of two cases involving companies in which the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has a significant interest: the sale of the Anguran mine, the largest lead mine in the Middle East, and the recent sale of 51 percent of the Iranian Telecommunication Organization’s stock to the “Tose’e Etemad Mobin” corporation .