Thursday
Oct152009
The Latest from Iran (15 October): Restricting the Movement
Thursday, October 15, 2009 at 20:35
NEW Iran: Karroubi Responds to Government Threats "Bring. It. On."
Iran-US-Russia Deal on Enrichment, The Sequel
Latest Iran Video: Selling Ahmadinejad’s Economic Plan (13 October)
Iran: The Latest on Mehdi Karroubi
The Latest from Iran (14 October): Watching Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and the Supreme Leader’s Health
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2010 GMT: Our Daily Contribution to the Khamenei Death Rumour Mill. The Supreme Leader's Facebook site has the following message from Wednesday, "Today Noon; Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran attended a rite in respect of Imam Sadeq(A.S)".
If true, this would disprove Tuesday's Peiknet story, the original source of the current health rumors, that the Supreme Leader had been confined to his house by doctors.
1620 GMT: A Dutch Member of Parliament, Harry van Bommel, has urged Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen to take further action against the imminent execution of Iranians sentenced in post-election cases:
Human rights is one of Verhagen's policy priorities, and he can be contacted in English or Dutch via Twitter.
1545 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has responded --- big-time --- to Government attempts to arrest him over his allegations of abuses of detainees. We've got the details in a separate entry.
1405 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi has posted an interview with the lawyer of Arash Pour-Rahmani, who was sentenced to death for subversive activity last week. Her headline is a blunt description: "Close to Death but Clueless".
1400 GMT: Iranian authorities continue to prevent filmmaker Jafar Panahi, who was briefly detained on 30 July, from leaving the country.
1110 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has used the setpiece of a meeting with an Egyptian writer and scholar to declare that further US sanctions on Iran are unlikely: “In a status where countries are seeking free trade, talk of embargoes is meaningless. At any rate, they have already imposed sanctions against our country, but achieved nothing. The world is a big place and all states are not controlled by a certain bullying regime."
Of course, this could be read as defiance but another reading is that Ahmadinejad is signalling that productive engagement is alive and well.
0900 GMT: Yesterday we noticed the latest message from Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, delivered after his class at Qom's seminary, challenging the Revolutionary Guard. An EA correspondent adds details of the statement:
0815 GMT: Amidst the rumours about the Supreme Leader's health, there will be some terrible "analysis" today, but the blogger Allahpundit takes an early lead in the competition. It's not so much that he/she declares "Irresponsible Rumor of the Day" and then treats it as true for his/her thought. It's more that the speculation is awful:
0625 GMT: Amidst continuing chatter --- all unconfirmed --- about the declining state of the Supreme Leader's health, including claims that the Tehran Bazaar is talking about Ayatollah Khamenei's passing, this line stands out: "Obviously, every rumor about Khamenei’s death to date has been false."
0615 GMT: Meanwhile, in the "West", there has been a notable switch from the nuclear issue to "human rights" to challenge the Obama Administration's engagement with the Ahmadinejad Government. This morning's Washington Post editorial endorses the latest speech by Iranian lawyer and Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi: "Mr. Obama has extended the hand of friendship to a man who has blood on his hands. He can at least avoid shaking the hand of friendship with him." Tehran Bureau, increasingly prominent as a site for the views of the Iranian diaspora, features Setareh Sabety's comment, "I do not want my President, who made me cry with his words of justice and freedom, who made me think that the impossible was possible, to shake the hands of the murderer of my children."
0600 GMT: More "Information"? Could be coincidence but Javan Online, the newspaper associated with the Revolutionary Guard, has followed its story on Hashemi Rafsanjani with a purported statement from Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani on the post-election protests. Mahdavi-Kani was named as co-author with Rafsanjani of the draft National Unity Plan, published by Fars News in late September, the incident that prompted Rafsanjani's denunciation on Tuesday of "false news".
Meanwhile, Javan's lead story is another purported analysis of US-supported regime change.
0500 GMT: A rather strange day on Wednesday.
We watched for signs of political movement from Mehdi Karroubi and Hashemi Rafsanjani; what we saw was the extent of the Government's attempts to break their challenge.
The headline story of the Government's threats to prosecute Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi was supplemented by accounts of the restrictions on the movements of both men. With constant surveillance and pressure by Government forces, they are confined to houses for long periods and, in the case of Mousavi, reportedly corresponding by written messages inside the home.
As for Rafsanjani, who is free to move and who holds key positions inside the establishment, he faces the Government distortion of his words and views. It also should not be forgotten that the regime maintains the threat of prosecution of his family members if the former President should move too far out of line.
A reader writes passionately, "Rafsanjani has no power any more and he lost it all trying to resolve his personal agenda." That's a fair challenge, especially given Rafsanjani's cautious and perhaps over-complex approach to politics, but I think it minimises the extent of the Government's fightback against a dangerous foe, especially after his mid-July Friday Prayers.
I also think that, as the Government is doing, one has to keep all the leaders in the picture. Individually, Karroubi, Mousavi, and Rafsanjani (as well as others like former President Khatami and senior clerics) can only have limited effect in the campaign for "reform" of the Ahmadinejad Government and Iranian system. It is only when there is both the movement of Rafsanjani inside the establishment and the challenge brought by Karroubi-Mousavi from outside --- again, a convergence we saw in mid-July --- that President Ahmadinejad and his allies are on the defensive.
Logically, then, the Government's approach is divide and rule. If Rafsanjani can be threatened and distorted into a strategy of gradual --- very gradual --- steps and Mousavi can be bottled up, then Karroubi's persistent statements are mere annoyances.
So is that it, then? Not quite. The paradox is that the umbrella political term in Iran right now is "National Unity Plan". Indeed, the Javan "information" that Rafsanjani supported Ahmadinejad's 2nd-term Government was put out in the context of a political meeting on that Plan.
We still don't know the details of the current draft Plan, from amongst the confusing reports of recent weeks, but any "National Unity Plan" which does not take some account of the opposition of past months will be seen as far from unifying.
And, yes, even that could be successful --- can Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, and the dissident clerics summon up the strength for another confrontation? --- were it not for another looming presence. The Green movement has been quieted and limited by time and Government restrictions, but it has not been vanquished. And 4 November, the day of the next major demonstration, is now less than three weeks away.
The Government restrictions have lengthened the political game --- we now see patterns in months, rather than weeks or days --- but it has not won it. No amount of surveillance, disinformation, or threat of prosecution can cover up that reality.
Iran-US-Russia Deal on Enrichment, The Sequel
Latest Iran Video: Selling Ahmadinejad’s Economic Plan (13 October)
Iran: The Latest on Mehdi Karroubi
The Latest from Iran (14 October): Watching Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and the Supreme Leader’s Health
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2010 GMT: Our Daily Contribution to the Khamenei Death Rumour Mill. The Supreme Leader's Facebook site has the following message from Wednesday, "Today Noon; Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran attended a rite in respect of Imam Sadeq(A.S)".
If true, this would disprove Tuesday's Peiknet story, the original source of the current health rumors, that the Supreme Leader had been confined to his house by doctors.
1620 GMT: A Dutch Member of Parliament, Harry van Bommel, has urged Foreign Minister Maxime Verhagen to take further action against the imminent execution of Iranians sentenced in post-election cases:
Protest at the European level is not enough. The Netherlands should also use its own channels. There is an escalation of political oppression in Iran and we should react to that by using heavier diplomatic means....To prevent the eradication of any kind of opposition in Iran, the Netherlands must act now.
Human rights is one of Verhagen's policy priorities, and he can be contacted in English or Dutch via Twitter.
1545 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has responded --- big-time --- to Government attempts to arrest him over his allegations of abuses of detainees. We've got the details in a separate entry.
1405 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi has posted an interview with the lawyer of Arash Pour-Rahmani, who was sentenced to death for subversive activity last week. Her headline is a blunt description: "Close to Death but Clueless".
1400 GMT: Iranian authorities continue to prevent filmmaker Jafar Panahi, who was briefly detained on 30 July, from leaving the country.
1110 GMT: President Ahmadinejad has used the setpiece of a meeting with an Egyptian writer and scholar to declare that further US sanctions on Iran are unlikely: “In a status where countries are seeking free trade, talk of embargoes is meaningless. At any rate, they have already imposed sanctions against our country, but achieved nothing. The world is a big place and all states are not controlled by a certain bullying regime."
Of course, this could be read as defiance but another reading is that Ahmadinejad is signalling that productive engagement is alive and well.
0900 GMT: Yesterday we noticed the latest message from Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, delivered after his class at Qom's seminary, challenging the Revolutionary Guard. An EA correspondent adds details of the statement:
As Ayatollah Khomeini has said, the Army, Revolutionary Forces, and Basij militia must not interfere with the political affairs as it would be very dangerous for the country. These forces should use their power against the enemy not the people and friends.
Statements that protecting the Islamic republic is obligatory only apply if the Islamic system is loyal to its values and slogans.
The values and the slogans of the Islamic Republic are "Independence, Freedom, and the Islamic Republic". Independence means not to be obedient to a superpower. Freedom is having the freedom of speech and the belief that the opponents will not be put behind bars. Republic means a system based on people's votes and finally Islamic means that the system should be based upon the Islamic values.
0815 GMT: Amidst the rumours about the Supreme Leader's health, there will be some terrible "analysis" today, but the blogger Allahpundit takes an early lead in the competition. It's not so much that he/she declares "Irresponsible Rumor of the Day" and then treats it as true for his/her thought. It's more that the speculation is awful:
Before the summer uprising, the odds-on choice to succeed [the Supreme Leader] was Rafsanjani....One possibility is [now] the Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, Ahmadinejad’s own personal “spiritual advisor”....Another possibility is that the [Revolutionary] Guard will simply finish the process started this summer and stage a full-blown military coup, installing Ahmadinejad or Jafari as dictator and taking things from there....The third possibility is the likeliest — namely, finding a puppet from among the clerical ranks who can be sold to the west as a 'pragmatist' or 'reformist' while letting the Guard control things behind the scenes.
0625 GMT: Amidst continuing chatter --- all unconfirmed --- about the declining state of the Supreme Leader's health, including claims that the Tehran Bazaar is talking about Ayatollah Khamenei's passing, this line stands out: "Obviously, every rumor about Khamenei’s death to date has been false."
0615 GMT: Meanwhile, in the "West", there has been a notable switch from the nuclear issue to "human rights" to challenge the Obama Administration's engagement with the Ahmadinejad Government. This morning's Washington Post editorial endorses the latest speech by Iranian lawyer and Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi: "Mr. Obama has extended the hand of friendship to a man who has blood on his hands. He can at least avoid shaking the hand of friendship with him." Tehran Bureau, increasingly prominent as a site for the views of the Iranian diaspora, features Setareh Sabety's comment, "I do not want my President, who made me cry with his words of justice and freedom, who made me think that the impossible was possible, to shake the hands of the murderer of my children."
0600 GMT: More "Information"? Could be coincidence but Javan Online, the newspaper associated with the Revolutionary Guard, has followed its story on Hashemi Rafsanjani with a purported statement from Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani on the post-election protests. Mahdavi-Kani was named as co-author with Rafsanjani of the draft National Unity Plan, published by Fars News in late September, the incident that prompted Rafsanjani's denunciation on Tuesday of "false news".
Meanwhile, Javan's lead story is another purported analysis of US-supported regime change.
0500 GMT: A rather strange day on Wednesday.
We watched for signs of political movement from Mehdi Karroubi and Hashemi Rafsanjani; what we saw was the extent of the Government's attempts to break their challenge.
The headline story of the Government's threats to prosecute Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi was supplemented by accounts of the restrictions on the movements of both men. With constant surveillance and pressure by Government forces, they are confined to houses for long periods and, in the case of Mousavi, reportedly corresponding by written messages inside the home.
As for Rafsanjani, who is free to move and who holds key positions inside the establishment, he faces the Government distortion of his words and views. It also should not be forgotten that the regime maintains the threat of prosecution of his family members if the former President should move too far out of line.
A reader writes passionately, "Rafsanjani has no power any more and he lost it all trying to resolve his personal agenda." That's a fair challenge, especially given Rafsanjani's cautious and perhaps over-complex approach to politics, but I think it minimises the extent of the Government's fightback against a dangerous foe, especially after his mid-July Friday Prayers.
I also think that, as the Government is doing, one has to keep all the leaders in the picture. Individually, Karroubi, Mousavi, and Rafsanjani (as well as others like former President Khatami and senior clerics) can only have limited effect in the campaign for "reform" of the Ahmadinejad Government and Iranian system. It is only when there is both the movement of Rafsanjani inside the establishment and the challenge brought by Karroubi-Mousavi from outside --- again, a convergence we saw in mid-July --- that President Ahmadinejad and his allies are on the defensive.
Logically, then, the Government's approach is divide and rule. If Rafsanjani can be threatened and distorted into a strategy of gradual --- very gradual --- steps and Mousavi can be bottled up, then Karroubi's persistent statements are mere annoyances.
So is that it, then? Not quite. The paradox is that the umbrella political term in Iran right now is "National Unity Plan". Indeed, the Javan "information" that Rafsanjani supported Ahmadinejad's 2nd-term Government was put out in the context of a political meeting on that Plan.
We still don't know the details of the current draft Plan, from amongst the confusing reports of recent weeks, but any "National Unity Plan" which does not take some account of the opposition of past months will be seen as far from unifying.
And, yes, even that could be successful --- can Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, and the dissident clerics summon up the strength for another confrontation? --- were it not for another looming presence. The Green movement has been quieted and limited by time and Government restrictions, but it has not been vanquished. And 4 November, the day of the next major demonstration, is now less than three weeks away.
The Government restrictions have lengthened the political game --- we now see patterns in months, rather than weeks or days --- but it has not won it. No amount of surveillance, disinformation, or threat of prosecution can cover up that reality.
tagged Arash Pour-Rahmani, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Basiji, Facebook, Fars News, Fereshteh Ghazi, Green Wave, Harry van Bommel, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Jafar Panahi, Javan, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Maxime Verhagen, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Revolutionary Guard, Setareh Sabety, Shirin Ebadi, Tehran Bureau, Washington Post in Middle East & Iran
Arash Pour-Rahmani, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Basiji, Facebook, Fars News, Fereshteh Ghazi, Green Wave, Harry van Bommel, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Jafar Panahi, Javan, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Maxime Verhagen, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Revolutionary Guard, Setareh Sabety, Shirin Ebadi, Tehran Bureau, Washington Post in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (22)
I've heard nothing about the "national unity plan" on #iranelection so far this week. Have you, from any other sources?
Shhh,
Not a word. That is why Javan's reference to it in the Rafsanjani "information" was so striking --- it was as if Plan was being used for propaganda rather as real sign of political movement.
S.
I think there's a real possibility the entire landscape has changed this week. We should know today if the rumors of KH's collapse/death are true, which require a verifiable public appearance. If none is forthcoming...it's time to speculate about some interesting disparate pieces of info:
@sbelg noted on Monday that Khayan said it would not be (and has not been) publishing for 3 days. No reason was given and there's no apparent reason. Others have noted there was a blackout from official media for 3 days after Khomenei died, too.
AN attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting with Putin and Chinese leaders this week, apparently resulting in Putin's statement about not threatening Iran with sanctions and the announcement of new trade agreements with China in the energy sector. Was AN's hand strengthened in these meetings by news of KH's coma/death?
Over the last couple of weeks, it seemed that Rafs had made some significant headway with KH on his national unity plan. Is it too convenient that this week, just as AN heads to Beijing, KH suddenly collapses into a coma/death?
It's very difficult to believe that the US Homeland Security Dept, or even Stephanopolous, would publish statements regarding KH's coma/death on the sole basis of Ledeen's report.
Lots to speculate about this week...
Shhh....,
Lots here to consider but one point: don't underestimate the knee-jerk shallowness of media "pundits" like Stephanopoulos and how much they react to the first loud whisper in Washington's hallways. Even though Ledeen is far from solid in his claims, he is well-connected enough for someone like George S. to make a reflexive jump.
S.
there is no smoke without fire !! something has happened and the man who could put every problem coming from IRGC or AN down, is Galibaf , a well known soldier with his contacts and network inside the pasdar army !! it's why few days ago, he was contacted by the leaders of unity plan !! I hope because "he " is very human and could manage these savages!
" dear " samuel I am fed up with your brutality ( sois cool un peu ! ) ; if you want , after the second revolution, we will go together in iran to put some flowers on the grave of your friend ! you shows always the old pictures as if you were brain-washed and you lived in the past ! it smells the auto regulation in each country in the world and even , you will see as soon as peace between palestine and israel ! be modern and think modern too
Scott,
Heshmatollah Tabarzandi who is the Director of Democratic Front of Iran spoke from Iran this evening (October 14, around 11:30 PM, Pacific Standard Time) on Epersian radio. I understand Mr. Tabarzandi was released from Evin prison in May 2008 after finishing a seven-year term. I also understand he were to be deprived of his social rights for a period of ten years following his release in May 2008. He is a journalist. He recently wrote an open letter o Khamenei.
He commented on current situation in Iran on Epersian radio program and touched on several areas that might interest your readers. The following is a summary:
• He does not believe regime will move forward with death sentence for any of the post election political prisoners at this time. It will be too explosive.
• Rafsanjani office had released a statement today saying Mr. Rafsanjani position is what he had articulated in his last Friday prayer. Any other statement floating around does not reflect his views.
• Regime will not arrest Mousavi or Karroubi. It will be problematic for the regime.
• Green Movement is pleased with Karroubi and the hard stand he has taken.
• Tabarzabdi and other political activists respect Mousavi, appreciate his resolve and not standing down even though they are mindful of some of his positions (e.g., Iran is and will be both Islamic and Republic).
• No One will or can go back to June 11, the day before election; people will not and regime cannot.
• Regime saw the 2-million march on Quads day and heard people’s cry of “not Gaza, Not Lebanon, I give my life for Iran” loud and clear. Regime is fully aware of the nature of this movement.
• People are determined. They do not want and will not accept clergies holding positions in government any more.
• People are not happy with the United States self-serving one dimensional focus on Nuke. They believe U.S. solo focus on Nuke will impede democratic movement in Iran. Ignoring human rights abuses and dismissing democratic movement do not serve the long-term interest of the United States.
• Geneva talk gave a new life to AhmadiNejad government which resulted in six executions in the last few days, Behnood Shojaei followed by 5 others.
• When situation is volatile and government severely restricts access to free media, they are able to get Voice of America and EPersian Radio. They follow the events as they unfold on this radio station.
• Tabarzandi asked Iranians outside Iran to organize massive protest for November 4 in solidarity with Iranians in Iran.
I was multi-tasking and missed part of Tabarzandi's comments. I will check the archive later and listen to it again. If I have missed any important point, I will report it later.
Epersian radio reported last night and again tonight that based on their sources, the news of Khamenei illness and demise are absolutely untrue.
Sorry friends, we may have to delay celebration for now. But do not stress, it will happen.
Megan,
Thank you very much for these updates.
S.
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I thank you too, Megan. This isn't bad news, any of it (the death of K right now could be dicey, imho, so not even that)
I hope those of us in the US are expressing our displeasure & indignation to our "representatives" in Congress (I spit as I say that word) They are on shakey ground as it is. They *don't* serve our interests- rarely, if ever anymore.
Some of the US media is buying into the nuke hype. They do not represent the views of people in general, but are trying to manipulate public opinion.
re:0900 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Montazeri statement to the Army,Revolutionary Forces, and Basij militia
I'm trying not to buy into the SL health hype but his message makes me wonder if there may be some truth to it. Montazeri is always issueing statements condemning the government or supporting the opposition, however this was a call to the army. It comes at an interesting time because there are no major protests due for 3 weeks, the opposition hasn't been arrested yet, there are no significant events in the near future to call to the army. Could be just wishful thinking on my behalf but after reading his statement again today I couldn't help think that maybe Montazeri is trying to prepare for a more imminent battle, calling for the help from all forces. I have to add I still won't believe anything about SL health until I see with my own eyes dead or alive. Just thinking out loud...
Or else maybe the whole SL health rumor is just propaganda to distract from the death sentences. It seems the situation in Iran is foggy as ever today.
Having said that the Iranian Embassy in Armenia just labelled reports of SL health as 'slander' according to Fox:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,566802,00.html
@ Janette, (11)
When they actually make a remark to a rumour like this it actually usually means there is something.... Its always like that even in sports, Usually a few weeks later it is when the coach gets fired... looool.
Not saying the Khamenei is really dying, collapsed or anything but in general these sorta things (Public Denials) are a reason for concern. So who knows..
Can anyone confirm http://twitter.com/oxfordgirl/status/4893556059" rel="nofollow">THIS?
Also, wow, that Allahpundit piece is horrible. One, Raf, for many reasons detailed here, was NEVER going to become SOLE SL. Ever. BUT he'll have a major say as to who WILL be the SL (more than one, perhaps?), so Mesbah-Yazdi is DOA.
That said, his completing the coup theory is troublingly plausible.
Kevin,
True. Tehran Times (http://www.tehrantimes.com/) has not published an item since Tuesday. The "hard-line" daily Keyhan has not published since Monday.
Scott
I don't want to predict anything, as nothing is predictable anymore.
But, if anyone lived in Iran during the Khomeini years, they'd remember that the system used his illness for quite some time. Iranians would have to watch the ailing man on his bed night after night; ceremony after ceremony was held to pray for his health. The whole country was practically on hold for months.
It would seem to me that once the SL is really in a life threatening situation the system would do so again. Why would they eventually surprise everyone with news of his death? Why not use his illness to shut everyone up?
OF course, the surprise would have that extra shocking effect.
And I'm not so sure what makes you all so happy. If anything happens to the S.L., this will just mean more confusion and more chaos. Nothing more.
K. is part of the old guard. He still has allegiances with Rafsanjani, and the old crowd, no matter how much he trumps them. If any change is going to be brought about at all, no one says that under a different leader, it will be easier or more likely.
The progression will continue: each new leader will rely less and less on popular support and more and more on military might.
Pedestrian: Khamenei never had the popularity of Khomenei and certainly never the same amount of authority. Focus on Khamenei's failing health would be more similar to the Shah's failing health, in that it would embolden (and possibly is already emboldening) the opposition to the regime as it stands.
As for why we would be happy, Khamenei is the only thing keeping the military rank and file following orders right now, and the only thing that separates the current situation from an actual coup.
If Khamenei dies and Ahmadinejad simply tries to fill the void as dictator, there would not be the same acquiescence. My concern is that Mojtaba Khamenei would be put into power without the Assembly of Experts, but that would be seen (rightly) as a coup that could be legitimately fought against by military means. Right now the military rank and file doesn't have legal authority to defy Khamenei since he has been a de facto military dictator for almost 20 years, once he is gone EVERYTHING is on the table.
Adam, of course KII is less popular than KI. But without intending to predict anything, it just doesn't make much sense to declare him dead suddenly. There is much use to be made in his illness and gradual loss of life.
As for what comes after - I'm going to set aside the possibility of an outright coup. Therefore, by law, the AoE will be responsible for selecting a new leader. The AoE has 86 members, names and biographies available on their site, here:
http: // www. majlese khobregan .ir/ index. php?option= com_content&task= category§ionid=8&id=41&Itemid=39
(I've deliberately made the spaces so it would not show up as a link in their website's feed)
If you look through the list, you will see that only a handful are reasonable-minded people. The rest are loyal Ahmadinejadists, or are associated with MAD, Ahmadi's boss.
They will select a new leader, but one far more dependent on the guns - more than KII even.
I don't see how that is helpful.
@ Qunamngdogs
I do agree with you that those of us in the U.S. need to put pressure on our elected officials. I have contacted my Senator who sits on Intelligence committee. I do send her e-mail summarizing opinion or remarks of those who call the mentioned radio station from Iran and comment on U.S. policy toward Iran.
To know how many people share some of the views expressed by Mr. Tabarzandi, we need to hear from a larger pool of Iranians in Iran. It is unfortunate that either due to financial hardship or fear of calls being traced or government eavesdrops; Iranians in Iran do not call as often as Iranians abroad. The other night, for example, one of the people who called from Iran was calling from a public phone on a busy highway in Tehran (you could hear the traffic noise in the background). He said he could use other phones. I wish broadcasters had the means of provide an 800 line.
Megan, what radio listen are you referring to?
Megan
Thanks for your excellent summary. Very interesting discussion
@Janette
I do not think Montazeri‘s call to Army to stay out of politics has to do with Khamenei flat-lining or being on ice already. I think his call is mainly to keep the movement alive.
If Khamenei flat lines, there will be power struggle inside Iran. Unlike Pedestrian, I believe AoE and Velayt feghih will be null and void after Khamenei’s death. I think IRG/ Pasdaran/ Basijii will be fighting it out. It is inconceivable that Khatami and Rafsanjani having served as president do not have supporters or loyalist in IRG and military. I, therefore, believe even if there is a military coup it will not be a quite or bloodless one. The international intelligence communities know that and are watching events diligently. They may feed us the progress or lack thereof on Nuke negotiation but behind the scene they are monitoring the storm. The International community does not want triger for more instability in that region so if there is one brewing because of Khamenei NO MORE they will get in position. I, therefore, will look for movement in Persian Gulf by US Navy, Iran Navy, and other countries who have warships in that area. Other signs, I look for is troop build –up along borders with neighboring countries, especially on the Iran Northern border. I also look for unexpected events in Iran like arrest or unexpected death of some key players. At this time we do not see any evidence of such events so Khamenei is still ticking.
I have no doubt the man is ill and will die soon. I think his death will not be a quite one. I, however, consider his death a blessing for all Iranians. With his death Iranians can write the last chapter in Iran theocracy or shall we say thugcracy. An added blessing is that the thugs will kill each other in a bloody power struggle. Like many, I have family there too but trading your rights for superficial peace and quiet is not a fair trade to me. Freedom is never free and we need to accept that or stop talking about it.
Cyaxares,
Epersianradio.com. The 11:00 PM (Pacific Standard Time) program with Saeed Ghaam Maghami. This program is about two hours. In the second hour he opens the phone lines and callers are from Europe, North America, and Iran. When there is a major event like Quads day, you can listen to the protest live. I tune in every night because I would like to hear the news from Iranians in Iran uncensored and unedited.