Saturday
Oct242009
Iran: The Karroubi Effect
Saturday, October 24, 2009 at 8:24
The Latest from Iran (24 October): Resurgence
Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)
The Latest from Iran (23 October): Karroubi Appears
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On 17 July Mehdi Karroubi, a cleric who had finished a distant fourth in the Presidential vote, allocated a measly percentage point of the toll, joined the crowds marching to the Friday Prayer ceremony being led by Hashemi Rafsanjani. He was jostled by security forces, with his clerical turban knocked from his head.
Far from removing Karroubi from the political scene, however, the incident symbolically propelled him to the centre of it. The former Speaker of Parliament, was well-known inside Iran, of course, but Mir Hossein Mousavi, who had finished a disputed second to President Ahmadinejad in the vote was the most prominent leader of the Green Wave. By late July, that was no longer the case. After Karroubi published a letter he had sent to Rafsanjani, asking for full investigation of the regime's abuses of detainees, he too became a representative of the demands for reforms that millions of people had sought from the first marches after the election.
Yesterday the turban was knocked from Karroubi's head again. He arrived at the Iran Media Fair, which has been running all week. One look at the videos, however, will show the impact of the appearance. The electric effect on the crowd, as they were spurred into both positive chants for Karroubi and, allegedly, anti-regime outbursts ("Death to the Dictator"), overturns weeks of speculation that the Green movement is spent.
The jostling of Karroubi, forcing his withdrawal from the Fair, may have been the result of a surge in the crowd. It may have been a clash between pro-Ahmadinejad supporters and their opponents. Security forces may have been trying to protect Karroubi, rather than joining in an attack upon him.
None of that matters. Once someone swiped an arm at Karroubi's head, they donated an injection of spirit to the Green wave. Details of plans to change the system are difficult to develop, let alone implement. So movements can drag, drift, wander as the messiness of politics overtakes the initial rush of protest. But when the turban again came off Karroubi yesterday, it overtook all those details --- indeed it overcame the Government surveillances, detentions, and "information" which have tried to sap the strength from opposition. Karroubi had made it, he had defied the authorities, and so could "we".
As we count the days to the 13 Aban (4 November) demonstrations, we have wondered if the Green Wave could maintain its strength, rather than ebbing out into a half-mobilised, less than half-hearted demonstration. I think we just got our answer.
Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)
The Latest from Iran (23 October): Karroubi Appears
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
On 17 July Mehdi Karroubi, a cleric who had finished a distant fourth in the Presidential vote, allocated a measly percentage point of the toll, joined the crowds marching to the Friday Prayer ceremony being led by Hashemi Rafsanjani. He was jostled by security forces, with his clerical turban knocked from his head.Far from removing Karroubi from the political scene, however, the incident symbolically propelled him to the centre of it. The former Speaker of Parliament, was well-known inside Iran, of course, but Mir Hossein Mousavi, who had finished a disputed second to President Ahmadinejad in the vote was the most prominent leader of the Green Wave. By late July, that was no longer the case. After Karroubi published a letter he had sent to Rafsanjani, asking for full investigation of the regime's abuses of detainees, he too became a representative of the demands for reforms that millions of people had sought from the first marches after the election.
Yesterday the turban was knocked from Karroubi's head again. He arrived at the Iran Media Fair, which has been running all week. One look at the videos, however, will show the impact of the appearance. The electric effect on the crowd, as they were spurred into both positive chants for Karroubi and, allegedly, anti-regime outbursts ("Death to the Dictator"), overturns weeks of speculation that the Green movement is spent.
The jostling of Karroubi, forcing his withdrawal from the Fair, may have been the result of a surge in the crowd. It may have been a clash between pro-Ahmadinejad supporters and their opponents. Security forces may have been trying to protect Karroubi, rather than joining in an attack upon him.
None of that matters. Once someone swiped an arm at Karroubi's head, they donated an injection of spirit to the Green wave. Details of plans to change the system are difficult to develop, let alone implement. So movements can drag, drift, wander as the messiness of politics overtakes the initial rush of protest. But when the turban again came off Karroubi yesterday, it overtook all those details --- indeed it overcame the Government surveillances, detentions, and "information" which have tried to sap the strength from opposition. Karroubi had made it, he had defied the authorities, and so could "we".
As we count the days to the 13 Aban (4 November) demonstrations, we have wondered if the Green Wave could maintain its strength, rather than ebbing out into a half-mobilised, less than half-hearted demonstration. I think we just got our answer.
Reader Comments (7)
Peyke Iran suggests shoe throwing event had been coordinated with Fars News Photographers as they seem to be all in the right spot and the right angel to snap the attached shots.
If true, I wonder how low this regime will go. Choreographing an assault with the help of media puppets for the purpose of marginalizing and ridiculing Green Movement and its leader shows how desperate and week the regime has become. Here is the link: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=8292
Megan,
You've raised an excellent point.
If that is true, and it probably is given the desperation of the regime, it actually just goes to show that the only thing they manage to do consistently well, is score own goals! They still don't understand, even after all this time, nor all they have done, that 'persecution strengthens a cause'
That Choreographing such an assault will actually have the complete opposite of their desired purpose. By making victims and martyrs 'they are not marginalizing or ridiculing the Green Movement' . . . . they are mobilizing it!!!!
'How low will the regime go?' How low can a poisonous snake get?
(I used your words - they are so much better than mine:-))
Roe,
I agree with you it Mobilizes people and it makes them Bolder and Bolder.
Actors of this regime keep sowing seeds of their own demise. Are they that stupid or are they suicidal? I keep calling them village idiots but I am beginning to think that may be too generous.
Fantastic essay, Scott, that will be very inspiring to many of our Iranian friends, no doubt!
Kevin,
Much appreciated. Keep the faith and pass the word.
S.
[...] The Media Fair attack on Karoubbi makes the Supreme Leader look like....WHAT? In case anyone missed what happened at Iran's Media Fair, regime thugs once again showed the people who precisely are the Good Guys and the Really Bad Guys these days. What can you expect if you beat up a recognized saint and hero? No matter how desperately Khamenei's regime scrambles to plug holes, word of its latest outrage--like so many others--continues to spread. As it does, the impact on public opinion multiplies. If Karoubbi's reputation for bravery, honor and probity has become unassailable, Khamenei reputation has solidified as well--in his case beyond redemption. These days he enjoys as much prestige among Iranians as a child molestor thrown among convicts. Enduring America's Scott Lucas points out the consequences of two physical attacks on Karoubbi by Khamenei's thugs. The first time they knocked off Karoubbi's clerical turban was on July 17th: "Far from removing Karroubi from the political scene...the incident symbolically propelled him to the centre of it". Khamenei's thugs "scored" again at this week's Media Fair--or did they?: --"the outburst of anti-regime chants overturned weeks of speculation that the Green Movement was spent." --"Once someone swiped an arm at Karroubi’s head, they donated an injection of spirit to the Green wave. Details of plans to change the system are difficult to develop, let alone implement...But when the turban again came off Karroubi yesterday, it overtook all those details — indeed it overcame the Government surveillances, detentions, and “information” which have tried to sap the strength from opposition. "Karroubi had made it, he had defied the authorities, and so could 'we'." OBSERVATIONS: If Khamenei's regime ever carries out its horrific threats against Karoubbi (I wouldn't put it past them to poison the guy or push him out a window and blame foreigners instead), the domestic effect would be as explosive as if the Italian government were to arrest the Pope. Khamenei doesn't get it: Deeds, not words, demonstrate a man's worth, in the people's eyes. Since the deeds of both men have become well known, morally Karoubbi looks more like a worthy Supreme Leader and Khamenei a worthless villain. You would think anyone sitting on top of a volcano would try to divert pressure. In this case that calls for massive--not token--reforms. Instead Khamenei's standing orders are: "Put a lid on it by any and all means." Every new outrage and every coverup functions as a giant bellows, stoking the volcano and speeding up the pressure. For Lucas' report see: Iran: The Karroubi Effect | Enduring America [...]
According to Hassan Karroubi, Obi-Wan's son, the shoe throwing incident never happened & the photo is a fake (Tagheer, "Change," Etemade-Melli Party News, http://tagheer.net/fa/archives/1388,08,02/591
The rest of the story--pro-government attempts at intimidating Karoubi and his supporters--is so pathetic it reads like a B movie.