Latest Video: Full Speech of Ahmadinejad at UN General Assembly

Here is the full speech of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the UN General Assembly:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAYrFHOV2Ww&feature=related[/youtube]
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Iran: The (Il)Legitimacy of Ahmadinejad

He came and he's gone. From New York, that is, not from his claimed authority as President of Iran. And after all the built-up drama surrounding his appearance at the United Nations, much of it a pre-scripted sideshow posing as the main act (Israel, the Holocaust, Iran's nuclear programme), what matters is the political situation to which Mahmoud Ahmadinejad returns, not the one he has just left.

This is in no way to denigrate the protestors who turned out yesterday to show the US and the world that Ahmadinejad was not acceptable. They represent the challenge to legitimacy that is at the heart of the conflict in Iran.

The important question was always going to be how many observers recognised that challenge. After all, Iranian state media were always going to ignore the protests in favour of the presentation of Ahmadinejad as international statesman. The postures that fuel the finger-wagging of the "Western" media --- his campaign against Zionism, his questioning of the scientific basis of the Holocaust, his chiding of "imperialism" --- support that portrayal. So this morning Fars News (farsnews.ir) has several articles pointing to Ahmadinejad as the agenda-setter in New York, including one on his six-point plan for global change.

So it is depressing to see that the Los Angeles Times sets aside the issue of legitimacy for "more important" headlines such as "Russia's president pledges to help U.S. nudge Iran on nuclear issue" and "Iran's President Extols Himself and Denounces Israel". It highlights Ahmadinejad's declaration, "[The Iranian voters] entrusted me once more, by a large majority, with this heavy responsibility," and only notes several paragraphs later, "Earlier, outside the United Nations, hundreds of protesters raised green flags -- the color of the opposition movement in Iran -- and signs reading 'Free Iran' as they railed against Ahmadinejad." The New York Times opens with the "thousands of demonstrators" and Ahmadinejad "stoutly defend[ing] his legitimacy. However, it then races to the safer ground of "familiar attacks against the United States and...an oblique rant against Jews", as well as the discussions of "world powers" over Iran's nuclear programme.

Far more important than the game of charades in New York but well beyond the notice of all but Iranian media, a more complex act of political theatre was being played out in Tehran. Having made his opening statement at the Assembly of Experts, Hashemi Rafsanjani was absent from the second day of the session. That enabled the fervent Ahmadinejad supporter, Ahmad Khatami, to read out a statement and claim that Rafsanjani endorsed "every line" of it.

The statement expressed full allegiance to the Supreme Leader --- no surprises there, for the flutter of a challenge to Ayatollah Khamenei's position has now stilled, and Rafsanjani's own strategy is to show undisputed support to bring the Supreme Leader towards his position. More significant was the appreciation of
the Supreme Leader’s “wise policies” in extinguishing the “seditious flames” in recent events. That one-sided view of blame for post-election conflict is at odds with Rafsanjani's more balanced presentation, as is the explicit claim that foreign powers had conspired to overthrow the Islamic system of Iran in recent events.

Most importantly, the Assembly upheld the legitimacy of Ahmadinejad's authority, praising Ayatollah Khamenei for dismissing any notion of fraud in the election and congratulating the President on his second term. The one opening for opponents of that legitimacy, and a more-than-implicit nod to the absent Rafsanjani, was the injunction that Ahmadinejad heed the “critiques of concerned Shiite clerics” as he led the Government.

So the wheel turns once more. The New York distraction is over --- thank goodness. For less than week of Qods Day, Iranian politics has again run the gauntlet of demonstration, resistance, negotiation, and Establishment pushback.

Confrontation or compromise? The question may have been a dramatic device to frame the last 72 hours in the United States. In Iran, that question is not artifice: it is at the heart of the battle for legitimacy that has defined the most important period for the Islamic Republic since 1979.

The Latest from Iran (23 September): New York Sideshow, Tehran Main Event

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1630 GMT: So Twitter Doesn't Matter? The pro-Government newspaper Kayhan is most irritated at a "twitition", promoted via social media, for Mehdi Karroubi to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. This is, apparebtly, the work of agents of the "West" and "Zionists" (and it is in a separate entry on EA).

1500 GMT: Ahmadinejad's away but his Government is still trying to play the enforcer at home. Fereshteh Ghazi reports that Majid Khorami, another member of the reformist Islamic Participation Front and head of Campaign 88 in northern Khorasan province, has been arrested.

1230 GMT: Another example of Red Herring Analysis. Meir Javedanfar is one of the most prominent US-based analysts of Iran, but he also foregoes consideration of the important dynamics inside Iran for the superficial of the President's performance today: "Ahmadinejad's words at the United Nations this week should therefore not be dismissed too quickly. They are a valuable reflection into the thinking of a regime that could soon become a nuclear power. On the contrary, President Ahmadinejad's words should serve as a blueprint for how a nuclear Iran might behave."

1115 GMT: Another Arrest. Confirmation today from various sources that Azar Mansouri, the political deputy to the Secretary General of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, Mohsen Mirdamadi, has been detained. Mirdamadi himself has been under arrest since soon after the 12 June election.

1015 GMT: And here is Ahmadinejad's summary, from the AP interview, of who is to blame for the post-election conflict:

"These were our citizens who were killed, and they were not at fault. Those who were at fault were a group of politicians who basically instigated the events that transpired. I've asked the judicial system ... to find out who the perpetrators of those acts were.

"The government has no role in these events ... Undoubtedly, some foreign governments had a role to play in it ... It is all very regrettable ... Some European and American politicians took a wrong position and basically helped that happen."

1000 GMT: Associated Press has published extracts from their interview with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Its main significance is to bear out what we projected this morning about the media coverage of the President's forthcoming speech. Attention is paid to the Holocaust, Iran's nuclear programme, and the three detained US "hitchhikers". There is only one brief reference to Iran's internal situation.

0600 GMT: At 5 p.m. New York time (2100 GMT) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will address the United Nations General Assembly.

And to be honest, both for personal interest and for analysis, I really don't care. I can guess most of Ahmadinejad's script, and the way he'll deliver it, and how it will be treated. The one proviso is that, if there are large demonstrations --- involving not pro-Israeli groups but those protesting the internal situation in Iran --- it could dent Ahmadinejad's self-portrayal to his folks back home as confdient and secure leader.

The main action is in Tehran. We've got a separate analysis of Hashemi Rafsanjani's speech yesterday, and we're watching for reactions and manoeuvres.

Meanwhile, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has linked up publicly with Mir Hossein Mousavi in a new challenge to the Government. A Mousavi statement has been followed by a Montazeri letter denouncing the false confessions of show trials.

One of the detention cases has been highlighted by the blogger Fereshteh Ghazi (iranbaan on Twitter). She notes that fellow journalist Ahmad Zeidabadi is under heavy pressure in Evin Prison to confess. The interrogator has told him: "We have orders to crush you. If you don't work with us we'll do anything we want to you, and if you don't sign the confession papers we'll make you eat them." Zeidabadi's wife said that the interrogator has severely beaten her husband.

One of Zeidabadi's charges is that in an open letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, he called him the "Leader" and not "Supreme" Leader. The interrogators have told Zeidabadi to apologise to Khamenei.

Iran: Rafsanjani Seizes the Initiative

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I got it wrong. Writing on a train to Edinburgh and relying on a shaky translation, I updated yesterday that Hashemi Rafsanjani's address at the Assembly of Experts had been clever but cautious. With an emphasis on unity, an alignment with the Supreme Leader, and a call for resolution within the system, he had not made a direct challenge to the Government.

Wrong.

Fortunately EA's Mr Johnson, with a thorough and incisive translation of the speech, corrected my reading in a later update and identified Rafsanjani's very direct message to President Ahmadinejad and his allies. Put not so cleverly and carefully, it is this. Mr President, it is time for you to compromise, especially with the senior clerics, in a process overseen by the Supreme Leader. Doing so, you will acknowledge where the final authority lies in the Islamic Republic: with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, backed by his clerical experts, and not with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Doing so, you will acknowledge that your direction and your officials are responsible for post-election abuses which must be punished and redressed.

Several important caveats to this message should be noted. This does not mean that Hashemi Rafsanjani is in step with the Green movement. At no point yesterday, as far as I know, did he acknowledge their presence. The Qods Day demonstrations had been of the Iranian people showing their determined defense of the cause of Palestine. Mehdi Karroubi's letter was never cited as the source of Rafsanjani's knowledge of abuses. Only the Supreme Leader and the marjas (the most senior of clerics) were identified --- Khamenei explicitly, the marjas implicitly --- as the defenders of justice. And Rafsanjani always balanced his charges of crimes and abuses with the general invocation that they had been committed by all sides in the conflict, not just by the security forces and Government officials. Rafsanjani does not walk in step with the Green movement but their paths converge when it comes to the desire to curb Ahmadinejad.



And that leads to the second caveat: although Rafsanjani never said so, the opposition opened up the space and thus made it possible for him to make his challenge. In particular, Rafsanjani needs the demonstration on Qods Day that many Iranian people were not only still angry with the President, still insistent on changes in the system, but also ready to take to the streets to give political substance to their feelings. In retrospect, that seems to be the reason why the former President laid low on Friday, watching, wating, and calculating, and then made his appearance (which, inevitably, would be in the vicinity of President Ahmadinejad but, now it is clear, not alongside him) at the Supreme Leader's end-of-Ramadan speech. Rafsanjani had some security in the criticism of the Government by senior clerics, many of whom were in the Assembly yesterday, but even those individuals might be picked off by the Ahmadinejad forces with their relatives arrested and their reputations slandered. After Friday, however, he had the security of knowing that, if the Government persisted, so would mass opposition by the Green movement. Resistance would not be broken. And he had also had the security of the Supreme Leader's Sunday address. For Khamenei had said to the President and the Revolutionary Guard, in his directive that in-court confessions could not be used against any third party, that Rafsanjani's family were immune from the charges in the Tehran trials.

A third caveat is essential, however. Rafsanjani did not call and will not call, even in code, for the dismissal of Ahmadinejad. That moment, if it ever existed, passed long ago with the affirmation of the Supreme Leader that the 12 June election result would stand.

No, Ahmadinejad can still be top political dog. But Rafsanjani is asking that he be put in the doghouse and on a firm leash.

This leads to an irony which is not an irony. The still-loose President was on his way to New York when Rafsanjani made his speech challenging that President's authority. A far from ironic moment, however, because Rafsanjani had undoubtedly made another calculation. It is not just that Ahmadinejad is out of the country but that his rhetoric will be directed at external issues such as the nuclear programme and Irna's leadership in causes such as the campaign such as Zionism.

Those issues are secondary --- although almost all in the "Western" media will have no comprehension of this --- to the internal matters put forward by Rafsanjani yesterday. So, once more as with the 17 July Friday Prayer address, he has the initiative.

Here is the question. Will the Supreme Leader, who opened up the door to Rafsanjani's political re-entry, now accompany him in that initiative?

The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions

Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech
NEW Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position
The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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2010 GMT: The buzz over Imam Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, continues. After his appearance yesterday at the Supreme Leader's speech (analysed in a separate entry), the Islamic Republic News Agency has attacked him for his continued visits to the families of detainees (see 1510 GMT).

1535 GMT: Revelation of the Day. Rooz Online claims that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has ordered the Ministry of Health not to release the medical records of recently injured protesters, thus covering up the cause of their wounds.

Afternoon Update (1510 GMT): A New Act in the Crackdown? State TV has again put high-profile reformist detainees Saeed Hajjarian, Mohammad Atrianfar, and Saeed Shariati on air in a two-day roundtable to explain and analyse their transgressions, no doubt re-drawing the picture of foreign-directed attempts at regime change. The trio were featured in a roundtable last month after the first wave of Tehran trials.

Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Imam Khomeini, has continued his visits to the families of post-election detainees. The visits have been seen as symbolic of Khomeini's challenge to the current Government and have resumed a day after his appearance at the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr address.

Parliament Qualms? Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar has again raised the prospect of a legislative clash with the President after the cease-fire that led to approval of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. Bahonar has expressed qualms about the President's power, saying he is worried that Ahmadinejad will start changing Ministers and declaring that Parliament will force Government to abide by laws.


0820 GMT: A quiet morning, as all sides continue to manoeuvre for position. The major political story is the Supreme Leader's attempt in his speech yesterday both to stabilise his position and to push for a settlement including both the President and Hashemi Rafsanjani. We've analysed that in a separate entry, "Khamenei Scrambles for Position".

Unfortunately, this story is now beyond the comprehension of most "mainstream" media outside Iran. So, instead of considering the internal dynamics, they will be distracted this week by President Ahmadinejad's visit to New York. They will not pick up on the most important aspect of this trip, namely that Ahmadinejad will use it to show Iranian people that he is in control and that protest against him jeopardises Iran's prominent position in world affairs. (Not many people, even veteran Iran-watchers, have figured out that this is why he gave the "exclusive" interview to NBC's Anne Curry.) They will not realise that the importance of Iran's nuclear programme is more in the prestige that it gives the President, especially as he can show defiance against "Western" and Israeli attempts to curb it, than in any imminent military use.

The headlines on the Supreme Leader's speech this morning give the game away: It's Not about Iranians, It's About US. CNN blares, "Iranian leader decries Obama's missile defense plan". The BBC adds, "Khamenei denies US nuclear claims". NBC, having tried to dine out on the interview with President Ahmadinejad, falls back into the superficial with "Iran's leader says U.S. nuke accusations wrong". The New York Times avoids the pitfall by saying nothing at all. (The honourable exception is The Los Angeles Times, which recognises,"Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei Says Opposition Protests Failed".)