Iran: More on Rafsanjani and Khamenei's End-of-Ramadan Speech

The Latest from Iran (21 September): Distractions
Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position
The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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Complementing our reading of the dynamic between the Supreme Leader and Hashemi Rafsanjani, Pedestrian summarises the post of blogger Agh Bahman. Bahman also adds useful thoughts on the positions of Imam Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, and Mohammad Khatami:


Everyone has been criticizing Rafsanjani and Hassan Khomeini for showing up at the Fetr prayer yesterday, and I just didn’t think the criticism was founded. We’ve had very few “real” politicians in our recent history, people willing to bend and compromise and adapt to circumstances. And I think Hashemi Rafsanjani, for all his shortcomings, is of this rare breed. Agh Bahman captures it perfectly (this is a summary of his post):

What got the most attention in yesterday’s prayer was the presence of Rafsanjani and Hassan Khomeini, and after them, Nateq Nouri in line behind the leader and beside Ahmadinejad. Many went so far as to interpret this as Rafsanjani’s betrayal of the people’s movement. When I got up and heard the news, I too was surprised. But when I thought a little more, my opinion changed completely. If you felt like me, read this, maybe your opinion will change too.

The Fetr prayer is one of the few state events which practically all high officials attend. Personally, I don’t remember any other even in which all officials participate. I think not showing up at Fetr prayer is like saying you don’t want to pray behind the leader. Did Rafsanjani do anything in the past three months that meant this remotely, so that now, showing up in the prayer is surprising?

In the past three months, Rafsanjani  did not attend two events which he was expected to attend: the two inauguration ceremonies. Both of these events had to do with Ahmadinejad and giving legitimacy to his government and this Rafsanjani did not want to do. Notice, just a few days after those ceremonies, he went to the goodbye and welcoming ceremonies for Shahroudi and Sadeq Larijani, the previous and current head of the judiciary. Probably one reason for his attendance was to show his respect to Shahroudi, but in any case, the judiciary head is appointed by the leader, and if Rafsanjani had reached a point where he wasn’t willing to pray behind the leader, he shouldn’t have showed up there either. And of course, Rafsanjani did not attend the two Friday prayers led by the leader, which was natural. From what I remember, unless Rafsanjani was prayer leader, he never attended the prayer  no matter who was leading. [notice, Rafsanjani sees himself, or at least used to see himself, as man #2. So just as the leader is not willing to pray behind anyone, and thus never shows up, neither does Rafsanjani].

Of course Rafsanjani did something else yesterday which didn’t get anyone’s attention and that was his absence in the leader’s meeting with the officials which takes place every year after the Fetr prayers in the leader’s beyt [the religious center adjacent to the leader’s home I think, or since “beyt” means “home” in Arabic, it’s supposed to be adjacent to his home, as was Khomeini’s, even if it isn’t.] From the photos we have of yesterday’s meeting, only the heads of the three branches of government are sitting behind the leader and Rafsanjani is very noticeably absent.

I went and found the photos from previous years. In the last four years, Rafsanjani was only missing in 2005. He was there last year and the year before that. I think by not going, he’s sending a message to the leader that he’s only willing to participate in events so far as he is formally obligated and no more. For instance, in a few days when the annual meeting of the Assembly of Experts with the leader takes place, I think Rafsanjani will go, and will sit beside the leader.

And now for Seyed Hassan Khomeini

I think Hasan Khomeini has a similar circumstance [as Rafsanjani]. He was in the first line of prayer every year at Fetr. In the past three months, he’s done nothing and said nothing which would mean that he’s turning his back on the leader. Khomeini showed his complaint out in the opinion on two occasions: not showing up at the inauguration, and not going to meet with Ahmadinejad in Imam Khoemini’s masoleum. Again, both these acts showed his disregard for Ahmdinejad and the legitimacy of his government.

And in fact, after the prayer, Khomeini did something that would obviously show his position: he went to see the family of Mohsen Mirdamadi (the chief officer of the Participation Front who is prison, and whose son was taken into custody just a few days ago) and Javad Emam (a recently released member of the Mojahedin party).

The Great Absence: Khatami

I think the biggest news from the prayer was not the presence of Rafsanjani or Khomeini, but the absence of Khatami.  Khatami too was first in line every year, and his absence sends a very clear signal: that he no longer accepts the leadership of this leader. Karoubi and Mousavi have been very vocal and have gone very far, and anyways, they were never seen in the first line of prayer these past few years. We can guess that they were absent for the same reasons as Khatami, but since Khatami was always first in line, his absence is much more noticed.

I should also add that I think one of the people to whom the leader’s words were address was Khatami. He said that confessions against other people in court was not credible. In court, a lot was said against Khatami. Against Karoubi and Mousavi too, but most was said about Khatami. I think the leader intended to appease Khatami with those words.

Iran: Khamenei Scrambles for Position

The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei’s End-of-Ramadan Speech

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Enduring America, 19 September: "[On 12 June the Supreme Leader] put his own authority on the line, and much of the story of the last three months has been whether he ensured or damaged that authority. So absence [from Qods Day] comes not in the midst of certitude of his Supreme Leadership but in the question of whether Khamenei is now scrambling for position vs. his own President."

Because the speech hadn't been given much advance publicity, in contrast to his Friday Prayer appearances, the attention to the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr address yesterday was initially a trickle, especially outside Iran. The horribly misleading Associated Press summary dominated the news cycle for hours, and later reports by Western agencies flowed into diversions such as the rhetoric on Israel and Khamenei's purported comments on the Iranian nuclear programme.

For those clued up on the internal Iranian situation, the trickle turned into a torrent of significance, especially with the appearance of former President Hassan Rafsanjani, a stare away from President Ahmadinejad, at the event. This was not just a Supreme Leader declaring that he had the seen the crescent of the moon. This was Ayatollah Khamenei trying to shore up his shaky position by bringing together the current President and "Establishment" figures such as Rafsanjani.

While I would not go as far as to say a deal between Khamenei and Rafsanjani was struck before the speech, I am persuaded that the Supreme Leader's rather curious declaration that confessions in trials cannot be used against detainees (curious because it did not fit the rest of the address and was not featured in the Iranian media, either that of the state or the opposition) was a pointed political offer. It does not mean that opposition leaders are safer today --- the assertion of the AP mis-story --- for there are other methods that can be used to pressure and "convict" them. It does mean that the confessions in the Tehran trials charging Rafsanjani's family with corruption can be tucked away.

That is, if Rafsanjani plays his part and backs off a challenge to the Presidency and the system. No one noticed yesterday that the next important event, as important as President Ahmadinejad's self-promotion in New York, is the meeting of the Assembly of Experts tomorrow. That gathering, delayed from August, will be headed by Rafsanjani, and it will include many of the senior clerics who have increasingly come out against the Government.

So here was a potential platform, coming four days after the Qods Day demonstrations, for Rafsanjani to make a public stand, forcing an initial battle in the Assembly and beyond that with Ahmadinejad and allies. Within the broader language of the Eid-al-Fitr address, trying to put the opposition beyond acceptability because of its direction by "foreign agents" like the US and Israel, Khamenei was offering Hashemi an alternative to a public move at the Assembly.

Beyond that step, however, is a snapshot of the Supreme Leader's shaky position. When he offered a similar deal to Rafsanjani on 19 June, Khamenei was doing so at the head of events. He was the one who had proclaimed that Ahmadinejad could be President, he was the one who had called on Iran to stand against the opposition, he was the one who could say as Supreme Leader that religion supported the Iranian political system.

Three months, he does not lead but responds. He is trying to counter the challenge of his own clerical establishment. He has failed to stamp his authority on a President who seems determined to fight a battle to a bloody political end, whatever the cost to the legitimacy of an Islamic Republic. And he cannot stop those tens of thousands coming out on the streets against that President and, to an extent, against him.

On 5 August, when the Supreme Leader invoked his authority to inaugurate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he was the one who stood tall as the President approached awkwardly and kissed Khamenei on the shoulder. Today, it is Khamenei who stumbles with hand outstretched.

UPDATED Iran: The Extended NBC TV Interview with President Ahmadinejad

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[Earlier commentaries and videos follow the extended 53-minute interview.]

I have been highly critical of the way NBC publicised and rolled out the earlier versions of this interview (see videos below), first in a "teaser" clip and then in the 6 1/2-minute extract featured on last week's NBC Evening News. The extended version has finally gone out on MSNBC today. To be fair, I'll refrain from further analysis until I've had a chance to give this full consideration.

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The full interview went out on NBC's evening news last night. The lead question-and-answer was, "Did You Steal This Election?", the advance clip that we posted below with our less-than-impressed analysis. To be fair to interviewer Ann Curry, she did follow this with a carefully-phrased challenge as to whether Ahmadinejad's forces had rigged the vote. And, of course, the President held the line with his insistence on brave Iranian people recognising his legitimacy by supporting him.

Curry then jumped to the death of Neda Agha Soltan ("What were your emotions when you saw this video?"). The President handled this easily, promising to investigate a suspicous death. Curry then finally got to current issues of detentions, abuses, and torture, to which Ahmadinejad expressed his regret that some people had been killed but far more security forces had been slain. And that was it: Curry then jumped to the nuclear issue and US-Iran talks.

In short? Curry's claim that the President "made news on several fronts" is blather, as she generally referred to a few basic (if important) symbols of past months inside Iran. She showed no knowledge of what is happening in Iran this week, leaving the President free to walk away unscathed. Indeed, he walked away boosted by the legitimacy granted to him by a major US television network more interested in headline ratings than in an appreciation of the complexity and significance of what is happening in the Islamic Republic.

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NBC has just posted the first extract from Ann Curry's interview with President Ahmadinejad. Here's their hard-hitting, headline question: "Did you steal the election?"

Pow, what a journalistic coup! Of course, the President was completely flummoxed and said, "Yes. Yes, I did."

OK, not really. Instead he trotted out the line --- familiar to all readers of Enduring America --- that these were the fairest elections in the history of the world, with 85 percent turnout, and other so-called "democracies" should recognise the superior superior system of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

But here's what burns me beyond the ineptitude. Curry's framing of the question of legitimacy is put not in the challenges from the Green movement and those marching on Qods Day but through the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani.

We'll wait for the rest of the interview but it looks like NBC has given Ahmadinejad and the regime far more legitimacy than they have received from other governments, let alone many of the Iranian people.

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The American television network NBC previewed its "exclusive" interview with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about 1220 GMT. The interview is being conducted this afternoon, presumably to be aired tonight. Meanwhile, NBC has talked to the families of the three Americans detained when they crossed the border into Iran.

Already, however, this is in danger of being a travesty. After patting itself enthusiastically on the back for getting the interview, NBC frames these as the issues "at a critical moment": 1) Iran's nuclear programme and negotiations with the US; 2) Ahmadinejad's appearance at the United Nations; 3) the three US "hitchhikers".

No reference to Qods Day. No reference to Hashemi Rafsanjani, the Supreme Leader, and Friday Prayers. No reference to the Green opposition at all apart from the fleeting note of "crackdown on election protestors".

If I'm wrong when the interview is aired, I will say that with relief. For now, this looks like a perfect storm of Ahmadinejad's manoeuvring and the ineptitude of the US mainstream media.

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The Latest from Iran (20 September): Khamenei's End-of-Ramadan Speech

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Picture of Day. OK, so Hashemi Rafsanjani showed up in the front row of the Supreme Leader's Eid-al-Fitr prayers near Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but he doesn't look too thrilled about the President, does he? Captions welcomed.

2000 GMT: The Clerics' Relatives. More on the Saturday release of the grandchildren of Ayatollah Montazeri (see 0840 GMT). They each had to post $20,000 bail as did the children of Ayatollah Mousavi-Tabrizi and Ayatollah Nazemzadeh.

1810 GMT: Stand by Your Man. In a move overshadowed by Qods Day, President Ahmadinejad has reconfirmed Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as the head of his Presidential office.

This is far more than an appointment. Given the conservative and principlist opposition that forced Ahmadinejad to withdraw Rahim-Mashai's selection as 1st Vice President, this is a symbol that the President rules within the Establishment. The reconfirmation also comes despite Rahim-Mashai's recent suspension over charges of financial misconduct.

1455 GMT: Speculation of Day - Khamenei-Rafsanjani Deal? Some Twitter-based Iranian activists have come up with the most intriguing analysis of the Khamenei speech and Hashemi Rafsanjani's attendance.

The Supreme Leader's declaration that evidence from confessions in court cannot be used against third parties is an "immunity" for Rafsanjani and his family. (Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi and other Rafsanjani relatives were prominently charged in confessions with political and financial impropriety in the initial Tehran trials.) In exchange for this, Rafsanjani showed his support for Khamenei with his presence in the front row of the audience.

I wouldn't go as far as deal but would see this as a return by the Supreme Leader to his Friday prayer speech of 19 June where he supported the Ahmadinejad election but also praised Rafsanjani and slapped down the President's pre-election allegations of corruption.

1315 GMT: Alternatively, you can fail by ignoring anybody inside Iran except the Supreme Leader. That's the choice of The Times of London, which doesn't seem to realise that the primary target of Khamenei's address was the opposition inside the country rather than "arch-foe Israel, Western powers and foreign media networks".

Thank goodness, Reuters has now put out an article recognising the Supreme Leader's linking of "foreign media" and his internal challengers.

1240 GMT: The "Western" media is on the verge of a major failure in its portrayal of Iran's internal situation. For some reason, Associated Press turned a minor extract from the Supreme Leader's speech, "What a suspect says in a court against a third party has no legitimate validity," into the main theme that the regime was retreating from post-election conflict (see 0940 GMT). This soon raced as a headline around the Internet and US broadcast outlets, who use AP as gospel to compensate for their lack of coverage, prepared to run this as a major change in the regime's position.

Only problem is that the Supreme Leader's overall message was one of confrontation with the opposition, bringing him more in line with the approach of President Ahmadinejad. He made his strongest statement in weeks linking protest with the supposed direction of a "velvet revolution" by Israel and the US (see 0950 GMT) and issued a warning --- directed first at Mehdi Karroubi --- about any claims of detainee abuse (see 0955 GMT). A glance at Fars News' coverage and that of the Islamic Republic News Agency reveals no reference to the statement regarding trials and an emphasis on the "velvet revolution" theme.

We have been in contact with CNN in the hope that the broadcaster may recognise the danger of reliance on the AP report and will take a closer look at sources that reflect the real significance of Khamenei's message. One of the five lessons of Qods Day for us was "the wanderings of the Supreme Leader"; well, he has now broken his silence and looks to be wandering into line with the Ahmadinejad Government.

1235 GMT: Holding Out. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has continued his defiance of the Supreme Leader's declaration, announcing that Ramadan only ends this evening and that Eid al-Fitr should be on Monday.

1040 GMT: Apart from Khamenei's speech, the buzz is that Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Hassan made prominent appearance at Eid-al-Fitr prayers. An EA correspondent considers: "Seems like Khamenei at the least succeded in persuading them to show up for a - at least at face value - show of unity. However, what Rafsanjani's real aims and intentions are remain a total mystery. My gut feeling is that he is continuing to take part in at least part of the regime's events to provide some sort of a cloak for Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, staving off the chances of them being arrested. Needs to be seen if this will alleviate the dire conditions of those in jail though."

0955 GMT: And it worth be worthwhile to note Khamenei's implicit defense of those within the regime accused of abuses in the post-election crisis: "The media should refrain from publicizing allegations leveled by foreign media against certain individuals in the country accusing them of betrayal and other wrongdoings....This would not be acceptable."

0950 GMT: Defying Friday. The real story of the Khamenei speech is the Supreme Leader's effort to turn back any notion of challenge from the Qods Day demonstrations. He did this by linking the line on Israel/Palestine with the contention that the nation had stood against Western-led troublemakers on Friday.

Qods Day had been a “day of loud and clear shouts” against the “deadly cancer of Zionism...spreading through the invading hands of the occupiers and arrogant powers... which is gnawing into the lives of the Islamic nations”. Then the Supreme Leader, who only a few weeks ago was denying that Iran had been threatened by a "velvet revolution", took aim at the attempt at "velvet revolution":

The enemies tried to undermine the Quds Day rally, but the rally showed that the schemes of the enemies were not effective....In the past few months, Western leaders fell for their media, professional press analysts and radios and televisions and thought they could influence the Iranian nation. But you showed that they were chasing a mirage....This year, more than before, they tried to weaken the Quds Day, but the glorious Quds Day in Tehran showed the whole world the direction in which the revolution and Iran was heading. It showed that their (Western politicians) tricks, spending money and political evilness does not influence the Iranian nation.

0940 GMT: Flight from Friday. When I saw the newsflash, I thought the Supreme Leader was making a signficant effort at compromise: "Iran's Khamenei signals easing in election tension." Turns out, however, that the supposed shift is only that of an Associated Press headline writer who must be unaware of the drama and tension of Qods Day. The Supreme Leader's comment, in a speech marking the end of Ramadan, was simply a vague allusion to a possible easing of the pressure of trials: "What a suspect says in a court against a third party has no legitimate validity."

0840 GMT: Report that Mehdi and Ali Montazeri, two of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's grandchildren detained on Monday, were released Saturday.

0745 GMT: It's Not Just Tehran. Maryam at Keeping the Change has posted an overview of the Qods Day marches in Shiraz, Isfahan, Tabriz, Rasht, and Mashad. We've posted the account of one participant in the Isfahan march in a separate entry.

0630 GMT: It seems we are now in a relatively quiet phase of this crisis. Very little has come out on the Government side since Friday, possibly because Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and close aides are now focused on the President's trip to New York and speech to the United Nations General Assembly, and the oppposition has also chosen to assess the outcome of Qods Day before making its next move. Only Mehdi Karroubi's meeting with medical faculty, featuring his comments that he will press claims in court of detainee abuse the "would make the Shah look good", broke the silence.

Instead, as we noted as the end of last night, the biggest ripple was a dispute, full of symbolism, over whether Ramadan ended with the appearance of the crescent of the moon last night. Senior clerics, countering the Supreme Leader, said no. The national holiday has still been declared of course, and Eid al-Fitr will still be celebrated by many, but it will be interesting to see if the senior clerics' claim resonates with Iranian people.

Iran After Qods Day: What Next for the Green Movement (The Sequel)?

Iran: The Lessons of Qods Day (Parts 1 and 2)
The Latest from Iran: Challenge Renewed (19 September)

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Yesterday Mr Smith set out the questions for the Green Movement on Qods Day. Just over 24 hours later, this is his re-assessment of the prospects for the opposition, which intersects with Scott Lucas' appraisal of the long-term political challenges:

The Green Wave succeeded in its main objective yesterday. Ever since the start of Ramadan, the reformist opposition to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, led by Mehdi Karroubi, was striving to make Qods Day the focal point for anti-government demonstrations. The target was to "stand up and be counted", and to prove that the Green Wave rank and file have not been cowed into silence by the litany of violence unleashed against it by pro-government security forces.

The Quds Day events have set a precedent for the Green Wave. From now on, every public holiday, or event that includes a large public gathering, can now be exploited by the opposition as an opportunity. The demonstrators can fan out in the streets and highlight the government's main weakness, its behaviour like an administration that claims to have received 24 million votes in the "most free and fair elections ever". If nothing else, the reformists have and will succeed in causing serious embarrassment for the authorities, as the decision to air a football game in black-and-white and with muffled sound, hiding any reformist supporters in the stands - highlights.

The reformist leadership however, has failed to produce a structured, middle- to long-term strategy. Of its three main leaders, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Khatami and Mehdi Karroubi, it is Karroubi who has been most active and vocal lately, producing several hard-hitting communiques detailing allegations of rape and rebuking indirect notices by the Supreme Leader to back down over his claims. Possibly out of concern for the well-being of their close associates that have yet to be jailed, Mousavi and Khatami have retreated from adopting the same tactic. Mousavi continues to profess allegiance to the institutional configuration of the regime and the Constitution, and somewhat romantically links the current crisis to a distorted view, by the current incumbents, of the prerogatives assigned to institutions such as the Guardian Council, the Presidency
and , indirectly, the Supreme Leadership, without questioning, at least so far, the validity of the institutional configuration described within the current constitution. This could well prove to be a conceptual Achilles Heel for Mousavi.

The situation on the ground in Iran hence appears to be that of a nervous stalemate. The government is entrenched and appears unwilling to concede any sort of concession to the opposition. The latter is defiant, has the remarkable capacity to send thousands of its supporters out in the streets and coordinate them effectively via the Internet (web-designed slogans were sung with amazing coordination across the cities of Iran yesterday). However, the Green Wave is not yet willing to embark on a new level of challenge, one that would presumably see Karroubi, Mousavi, and Khatami upping the ante by, amongst other things, sending open letters straight to the Supreme Leader.

Also unresolved is the fate of the dozens of journalists, top reformist officials, and civil society activists who have been regularly arrested in the past three months. The regime is therefore likely to keep up the pressure and continue to retaliate against the opposition leaders by harassing their immediate associates. Meanwhile, Mousavi, Khatami and Karroubi will have to go back to the drawing board to ponder othe next stage of their strategies. The imminent end of Ramadan might be auspicious in this regard: Mousavi has promised that the official launch of his new political initiative, the "Green Wave of Hope", will immediately follow Sunday's Eid al-Fitr.