Wednesday
Oct142009
The Latest from Iran (14 October): Watching Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and the Supreme Leader's Health
Wednesday, October 14, 2009 at 21:05
NEW Iran-US-Russia Deal on Enrichment, The Sequel
Latest Iran Video: Selling Ahmadinejad's Economic Plan (13 October)
Iran: Tehran’s Growing Confidence Against the Israeli Threat
Iran: Rafsanjani Statement on “False News” (13 October)
Latest Iran Video: The Shiraz Protest Against Ahmadinejad (12 October)
Video: Protest at Tehran Azad University (13 October)
The Latest from Iran (13 October): Government Threatens Karroubi
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2025 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has issued a thinly-veiled challenge to the Revolutionary Guard through another statement. Focusing on the abuses of the armed forces, he declares, "Some think that because they have guns they should exercise the power of their guns and use it everywhere. In any society that wants to be obedient, its armed forces should not be cruel but rather be compassionate and merciful."
2000 GMT: Remember how we started this morning with a letter from Hashemi Rafsanjani, criticising and warning about "false news" to discredit him? Well, consider this from Javan Online, a publication closely linked with the Revolutionary Guard, as reported by Tabnak:
It's not surprising that Javan would put this story, whether or not it is accurate. What is surprising is that, in light of Rafsanjani's warning that the only reliable news about him would come either from his website or the offices of the Expediency Council, an important website like Tehran Bureau would reprint Javan's claim without reflection.
1850 GMT: Amidst a quiet domestic news day, we've picked up on the international story missed by most of the media, "Iran-US-Russia Deal on Enrichment, The Sequel".
1500 GMT: The Facebook page associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi has responded to the Government threats to take Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to court with the reminder, "In case of the arrest of any of the Green movement’s leaders, we will take to the streets from 'Revolution' to 'Freedom' Square. The network [will use] media mobilization (SMS, email, flyer, wall notices, posters, Internet) for raising widespread awareness until the emergence of the Green army . (English summary via Iran News Digest)
1250 GMT: Amidst a lull in political developments, and as part of our increasing attention to the economic context, we've posted a two-part video from Press TV examining (and ultimately selling) President Ahmadinejad's economic proposals.
0805 GMT: We've posted what I think may be one of the most revealing analyses from within Iran, written by Dr Mahmoud Reza Golshanpazhooh, on the country's international position, "Tehran’s Growing Confidence Against the Israeli Threat".
0655 GMT: According to Peykeiran, a fifth death sentence over post-election conflict and "subversion" has been handed out to a "Davoud Mir Ardebili". The report claims that Ardebili is not a monarchist, the allegation made against three other condemned men, but merely called a radio station to report union protests.
0650 GMT: Today's Puffing of the Chest. Brigadier General Hussein Salami, the deputy commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps says,"Unlike the wrong conception of the enemies, Iran is strong and invincible."
No further comment or meat-related jokes necessary.
0640 GMT: Watching the Economy. Press TV's website has a must-read story betraying nervousness over both Iran's economic situation and the politics around the headline measure, Ahmadinjead's proposed subsidy reform.
The story begins with apparent good news, with a fall in the annual inflation rate from 20.2 percent to 18.5 percent. However, the headline also notes, "Jobless Rate Soars", rising to 11.3 percent from 10.2 percent over the summer.
And here's the stinger of the piece: "Economists fear that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's subsidy reform plan, which aims to gradually cut energy and food subsidies, will hike up inflation. The Iranian parliament has approved the outline of the bill, but lawmakers are still at odds over the details of the plan."
Our initial reading of the push for subsidy cuts, with the impulse being the worsening budget situation of the Iran Government, was too narrow. There are good structural reasons to reform the system, though I am uncertain how much these factor into Ahmadinejad's calculations. Far more significant --- and provocative --- is the President's political scheme, taking some of the money saved from the cuts and distributing it to Iran's poorest people.
0620 GMT: Our starting point today will be a close eye on the next steps of two key figures, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mehdi Karroubi.
Rafsanjani surfaced yesterday to publish a letter via Iranian Labor News Agency, denying "false news" of a letter that he and Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi-Kani supposedly sent to Mir Hossein Mousavi on 28 September. We think this is a reference to the claimed "National Unity Plan", "revealed" by Fars News that day. At this point, however, Rafsanjani's step is a defensive move, fending off pressure from the Government and media who oppose him, rather than a major political step. We have an analysis and English translation of the letter in a separate entry.
The situation around Mehdi Karroubi is more dramatic. The Government threat to prosecute him, issued yesterday by two high-level officials, is a clear response --- showing nervousness as well as supposed strength --- to the resurgence of Karroubi's public statements, especially his Saturday meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi.
So, to be blunt, we're wondering, "Does Karroubi back down?", and we're thinking, "No." His response to the Government's ham-fisted warning, which following similar threats over the last two months --- may not come today, but I would look for a clear signal from the cleric by the weekend.
Meanwhile, a brief article in Peiknet has stoked the fire of rumours about the poor state of the Supreme Leader's health. The website claims that three doctors were summoned urgently to Ayatollah Khamenei's house and, after examining him, insisted that he cancel all public and Government meetings and stay at home, with only his family seeing him. To our knowledge, no other source has corroborated the Peiknet assertion.
Rumors that the Supreme Leader has cancer, specifically prostate cancer, have persisted for years --- our readers have discussed these in comments. For now, we'll keep watch, especially to see if Khamenei stays out of public view.
Latest Iran Video: Selling Ahmadinejad's Economic Plan (13 October)
Iran: Tehran’s Growing Confidence Against the Israeli Threat
Iran: Rafsanjani Statement on “False News” (13 October)
Latest Iran Video: The Shiraz Protest Against Ahmadinejad (12 October)
Video: Protest at Tehran Azad University (13 October)
The Latest from Iran (13 October): Government Threatens Karroubi
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2025 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has issued a thinly-veiled challenge to the Revolutionary Guard through another statement. Focusing on the abuses of the armed forces, he declares, "Some think that because they have guns they should exercise the power of their guns and use it everywhere. In any society that wants to be obedient, its armed forces should not be cruel but rather be compassionate and merciful."2000 GMT: Remember how we started this morning with a letter from Hashemi Rafsanjani, criticising and warning about "false news" to discredit him? Well, consider this from Javan Online, a publication closely linked with the Revolutionary Guard, as reported by Tabnak:
"Since the inauguration of the 10th administration, I believe in its legitimacy. Presently Mr. [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad attends the Expediency Council meetings as president, with invitations signed by myself," Rafsanjani said in a meeting with Iranian political figures in favor of the national unity plan.
It's not surprising that Javan would put this story, whether or not it is accurate. What is surprising is that, in light of Rafsanjani's warning that the only reliable news about him would come either from his website or the offices of the Expediency Council, an important website like Tehran Bureau would reprint Javan's claim without reflection.
1850 GMT: Amidst a quiet domestic news day, we've picked up on the international story missed by most of the media, "Iran-US-Russia Deal on Enrichment, The Sequel".
1500 GMT: The Facebook page associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi has responded to the Government threats to take Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to court with the reminder, "In case of the arrest of any of the Green movement’s leaders, we will take to the streets from 'Revolution' to 'Freedom' Square. The network [will use] media mobilization (SMS, email, flyer, wall notices, posters, Internet) for raising widespread awareness until the emergence of the Green army . (English summary via Iran News Digest)
1250 GMT: Amidst a lull in political developments, and as part of our increasing attention to the economic context, we've posted a two-part video from Press TV examining (and ultimately selling) President Ahmadinejad's economic proposals.
0805 GMT: We've posted what I think may be one of the most revealing analyses from within Iran, written by Dr Mahmoud Reza Golshanpazhooh, on the country's international position, "Tehran’s Growing Confidence Against the Israeli Threat".
0655 GMT: According to Peykeiran, a fifth death sentence over post-election conflict and "subversion" has been handed out to a "Davoud Mir Ardebili". The report claims that Ardebili is not a monarchist, the allegation made against three other condemned men, but merely called a radio station to report union protests.
0650 GMT: Today's Puffing of the Chest. Brigadier General Hussein Salami, the deputy commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps says,"Unlike the wrong conception of the enemies, Iran is strong and invincible."
No further comment or meat-related jokes necessary.
0640 GMT: Watching the Economy. Press TV's website has a must-read story betraying nervousness over both Iran's economic situation and the politics around the headline measure, Ahmadinjead's proposed subsidy reform.
The story begins with apparent good news, with a fall in the annual inflation rate from 20.2 percent to 18.5 percent. However, the headline also notes, "Jobless Rate Soars", rising to 11.3 percent from 10.2 percent over the summer.
And here's the stinger of the piece: "Economists fear that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's subsidy reform plan, which aims to gradually cut energy and food subsidies, will hike up inflation. The Iranian parliament has approved the outline of the bill, but lawmakers are still at odds over the details of the plan."
Our initial reading of the push for subsidy cuts, with the impulse being the worsening budget situation of the Iran Government, was too narrow. There are good structural reasons to reform the system, though I am uncertain how much these factor into Ahmadinejad's calculations. Far more significant --- and provocative --- is the President's political scheme, taking some of the money saved from the cuts and distributing it to Iran's poorest people.
0620 GMT: Our starting point today will be a close eye on the next steps of two key figures, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mehdi Karroubi.
Rafsanjani surfaced yesterday to publish a letter via Iranian Labor News Agency, denying "false news" of a letter that he and Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi-Kani supposedly sent to Mir Hossein Mousavi on 28 September. We think this is a reference to the claimed "National Unity Plan", "revealed" by Fars News that day. At this point, however, Rafsanjani's step is a defensive move, fending off pressure from the Government and media who oppose him, rather than a major political step. We have an analysis and English translation of the letter in a separate entry.
The situation around Mehdi Karroubi is more dramatic. The Government threat to prosecute him, issued yesterday by two high-level officials, is a clear response --- showing nervousness as well as supposed strength --- to the resurgence of Karroubi's public statements, especially his Saturday meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi.
So, to be blunt, we're wondering, "Does Karroubi back down?", and we're thinking, "No." His response to the Government's ham-fisted warning, which following similar threats over the last two months --- may not come today, but I would look for a clear signal from the cleric by the weekend.
Meanwhile, a brief article in Peiknet has stoked the fire of rumours about the poor state of the Supreme Leader's health. The website claims that three doctors were summoned urgently to Ayatollah Khamenei's house and, after examining him, insisted that he cancel all public and Government meetings and stay at home, with only his family seeing him. To our knowledge, no other source has corroborated the Peiknet assertion.
Rumors that the Supreme Leader has cancer, specifically prostate cancer, have persisted for years --- our readers have discussed these in comments. For now, we'll keep watch, especially to see if Khamenei stays out of public view.
tagged Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hussein Salami, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Javan, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud Reza Golshanpazhooh, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Peiknet, Press TV, Subsidies, Tabnak in Middle East & Iran
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Hussein Salami, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, Javan, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud Reza Golshanpazhooh, Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Peiknet, Press TV, Subsidies, Tabnak in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (15)
Health of the leader
One of the jobs of the AoE is to assess the physical and mental health of the leader to carry out its work. A panel of doctors examine the leader and sends its secret report to the AoE executive panel which reviews it in secret, and if needed reports on it to all members. As such if the SL is sick or dying it will be hard to hide from the most senior Ayatollahs on the AoE panel and thereafter from the Marjah. Since we are not getting many leaks on this story, it is hard to believe it. Off-course one or two small leaks and we then know the cat is out of the hat too....
However without any one talking of the hypothetical aftermath, or any leaks of his health issues from sources in Iran, it is hard to believe this is much more than a miss information campaign.
God, how long does it take for someone to die of cancer? Sorry I am usually sensitive but on this occasion I wish him a quick and swift end to his suffering and ours.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/10/selected-headlines-45.html
"Head of the Expediency Council, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, said
he was a firm believer in the legitimacy of the new Ahmadinejad administration."
Can anyone explain or give some light on this ?! I really feel i missed something
here...
-what, with everything widely debated on this forum on Mr Shark, Hashemi etc.
It's from Tabnak (is it pro AN ?) dated today on tehranbureau headlines
Ok, i repl&ced Tabnak's political trend (definitely anti opposition), and saw
some 'twits' saying that Rafsanjani office denied the allegations...But what
is it heading at, this media agit' prop ' ?
Yseut,
As usual, you've caught the item to watch and dissect --- beyond the update, I have no doubt that this was a "spoiler" article trying to undermine Rafsanjani. Unfortunately the Tabnak link does not work on the Tehran Bureau website so will chase tomorrow.
S.
Ouf, thanks for the return Scott. Suddenly a few month of datas, news, reading,
debates (all the thorough analysis on EA either from you or the persian team)
on IRI, Iran, Hashemi and the lot... didn't make any sense AT ALL. SO ther's a
hint of info-desinfo war in the air it seems... By the way, i think i mistook Tabnak
and Javan (IRCG affiliated) (this latter being maybe at the origin of the statements reported in Tabnak). A suivre, then...
The Supreme Leader and Illness? No problem at all. The SL took a much bigger shot years ago and simply shrugged it off. http://english.khamenei.ir//index.php?option=com_mhasgallery&Itemid=33&func=viewcategory&catid=52
I would guess the SL lives as long as Imam Khomeini.
I hope Samuel is wrong, if Khamenei lives as long as Khomeini, he will live for another 17 years!! I don't believe he will, I remember years ago I thought he died infront of my eyes when he passed out in the middle of friday prayer. You can't continue to live in bad health for that long. There are rumours spreading through the Bazaar today that he has died and it has been reported a “abnormal atmosphere in the city” and increased presence of plainclothes agents in the capital.
I hope he dies thousands of times. I hope he pays for every innocent life he has destroyed.
@ZG
A person with non-metastasized cancer can live for many years. The simplest definition of cancer is a cell mass consisting of cells which have lost their "off switch" so that they're constantly dividing. A skin cancer could grow to the size of a watermelon, but aside from the effects on mobility and appearance it wouldn't necessarily be fatal in and of itself.
Nevertheless mutated cells are normally programmed to self-destruct, so it's generally a requirement for the self-destruct mechanism to mutate first. Once the self-destruct mechanism has been disabled via mutation the cell becomes vulnerable to all sorts of other mutations including the loss of its "off switch". But those two conditions, while potentially fatal if the cells grow in an uncontrolled manner in a confined area like the brain or crowd out healthy cells in your organs, are not in and of themselves necessarily fatal. Usually further mutations are required like the ones responsible for metastasis which enables the cancerous cells to spread to other tissues all across the body.
Once a cancer metastasizes the prognosis turns very grim and the patient generally dies within a few months to not more than a handful of years. You can surgically remove the visible cancerous cell masses from most parts of the body, but it's pretty much impossible to get every last cancerous cell once the cancer has metastasized. So all surgery does in the case of a metastasis is buy a little more time. You can combine it with chemotherapy and pray that the chemo will stop what's left from growing, but if the cancer is advanced enough, chemo will probably fail, and the cancer will return.
Peter, thanks for that simple explanation.
Does the same pattern explain theocratic cancer? If so, where in the process would you place Iran right now?
LOL. I believe the rumor is that the SO has/had prostate cancer. Generally speaking, if he's been getting his yearly exam, odds are they discovered it and were able to surgically remove it before it could metastasize. On the other hand if it's one of the harder to detect cancers like pancreatic cancer (or if say he refused to be subjected to a prostate exam to avoid the indignity) then odds are that they didn't detect it until it was too late. In that case his life would depend entirely on whether or not God was in the mood to answer his prayers.
Speaking of theocratic cancer, I do tend to see the Pasdaran as a cancer that's metastasizing as it spreads throughout the Iranan government and economy, crowding out and attempting to suffocate all alternative political and economic interests, inevitably killing the organism, which in this case is the current Iranian government/economy. Hashemi is trying to surgically cut it out of politics, but it no longer respects boundaries so he's failing. People can't get new bodies when the old one dies, but countries -can- get new governments. So there is still hope for Iran even if the days of this particular government may be numbered.
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