The Latest from Iran (31 October): Karroubi to March on 13 Aban

NEW Iran: Mousavi Statement for 13 Aban Demonstrations (31 October)
Iran: Why is Israel Now Endorsing the Enrichment Deal?
Iran: Human Rights is a Problem…in the US and Europe
Video: Tonight “Allahu Akhbars” at Sharif University
More Time, Please: Ahmadinejad’s Legitimacy and Iran’s Nuclear Talks
Latest from Iran (30 October): Now to the Real Contest

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2040 GMT: It's Official: Bring It On. First we had Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement, now we have Mehdi Karroubi's signal that he will be joining the crowds on 13 Aban. The cleric has promised further details soon but indicated that he will be joining students at the "Polytechnic" in Tehran. This may refer to Amir Kabir University, although earlier chatter said Karroubi would be going to Sharif University.

2020 GMT: Handing Down "Justice". The deputy head of Iran's judiciary, Ebrahim Raeesi, has announced that sentences for 50 post-election detainees have been issued. Some detainees are appealing the verdicts, and Raeesi urged colleagues to speed up the processing of the cases.

For Raeesi, it is clear, has made his mind: “Those who have proposed the elections were fraudulent and created doubt in the public’s mind have undoubtedly committed a grave crime and naturally will have to answer for the crime they have committed.”

1930 GMT: We've now posted the English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's statement welcoming the 13 Aban (4 November) demonstrations (see 1200 and 1215 GMT). The declaration is a spirited presentation of and for the Green movement in the context of the history of 13 Aban, Ayatollah Khomeini, and the Islamic Revolution.

And it is also a spirited criticism of Ahmadinejad's negotiations over the nuclear programme with the United States and other countries, accusing the President of selling out Iran for the sake of his personal position: "Today, it appears that a large proportion of the product of Iran’s nuclear program, which has caused much chaos and brought a number of sanctions for the people, must be handed to another country, in hopes that they will be kind enough to offer us some fuel later on.

1740 GMT: Former President Mohammad Khatami has met with members of the Central Council of the Islamic Association of Tehran University and Tehran Medical Sciences. Khatami warned that surveillance into personal affairs of people is not allowed even in the cases of those who do not believe in the Establishment or in God, as long as they do not use weapons.

The former President emphasised that the Green movement is against violence but in the opposite side there are some who only think and act violently. Khatami said it must first be accepted that there is a crisis in the society, and then one can find the solution; if there are mistakes in analysing the current situation, there will be more problems in the future.

1730 GMT: Morteza Alviri, Mehdi Karroubi’s representative in the joint Karroubi-Mousavi committee formed to investigate prison abuse cases, was released from prison on bail this afternoon.

There is confusion, however, over Behzad Nabavi, a senior member of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution who has been illegally detained since June. It was reported that Nabavi had been released, but this has been denied by his family, who say he is still in hospital after surgery last month.

1405 GMT: Alef News carries a purported interview with mathematics student Mahmoud Vahidnia, who challenged the Supreme Leader with a series of questions on Wednesday. Vahidnia denies that he was arrested after the incident.

1340 GMT: The reformist cleric Abdollah Nouri has visited Mohammad Ghoochani, the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper released yesterday after more than four months in detention.

1215 GMT: How Not to Report Breaking News. Reuters summarises the Mousavi statement, "Opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi appeared to urge his supporters on Saturday to take part in rallies next week marking the 30th anniversary of the U.S. embassy takeover by radical students in Tehran."

Appears? Yes, in the same way that the Pope "appears" to be Catholic and many students "appear" to be concerned about the Iranian Government. And nice touch by the news service to frame 13 Aban as just an extension of "radical students" who took Americans hostage in 1979.

1200 GMT: We return from a break to find that Mir Hossein Mousavi has issued a statement, his 14th of the post-election crisis, ahead of the 13 Aban (4 November) demonstrations. The statement is a rallying call, praising students for their determination and encouraging them to remain strong for "the Greenest day of the year". Mousavi stands against extremism, as he declares that the "Green path" is the "rational way".

0935 GMT: Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad is not going to be deflected from his strategy of continued engagement as a sign of the acceptance of the legitimacy of Iran's Government. He told veterans today that "the best way forward" for the "West" was "co-operation with the Iranian nation".

0855 GMT: A gentle morning in Iranian politics, so we've been working on other stories from the role of money in US politics to the latest on Israel-Turkey relations as well as an item on Iran's condemnation of the US, Canada, and Europe for human rights violations.

There are increasingly interesting developments on Iran's nuclear talks and US-Iranian relations, however.

Our suspicion about Ali Larijani's renewed attack on Washington for its supposed involvement in the recent suicide bombing in southeastern Iran --- this is a tactic to challenge the Ahmadinejad Government's continued discussions with the US on nuclear issues --- is reinforced by  statements from other high-profile conservative and principlist legislators. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security Committee, repeated his objection from earlier this week:

We are completely opposed to the proposal on delivering uranium with 3.5 percent enrichment in exchange for uranium with 20 percent enrichment. There is no guarantee they would give us fuel with 20 percent enrichment in exchange for our delivered LEU. We have deep mistrust in relation to the Westerners.

Kazem Jalali, another key member of the committee, declared, "The demand that we should deliver all enriched nuclear material to other countries so that they would supply Tehran's fuel needs is completely out of the question."

Andrew Lee Butters of Time magazine has a good overview article picking up on the "storm of criticism from across the Iranian political spectrum", highlighting the remarks of Mir Hossein Mousavi as well as the Government's Parliamentary challengers:

Conservatives had accused moderates of treason over previous attempts to reach a nuclear agreement with the West; now the country's embattled opposition leaders are getting their own back, perhaps fearful that rapprochement between the West and Ahmadinejad would reinforce the regime that has cracked down hard since the election.

Comments

[Edward Yeranian]

Can anyone open this Iranian TV clip of Ahmedinejad addressing the veteran's group? The IRIB website has been sputtering for the last week or so. I'm not sure if that's for domestic, technical reasons or if there is some sort of denial of service attack going on. Any thoughts?

http://www.iribnews.ir/News/Video/204445_371adf8c.wmv

[Tricia Neda Sutherland]

I can't even get the article to open this morning (GMT 12:12) but the link to the original source wont open either .. just says the link is maybe broken and to try again or check with the source :( ... would be very interested to read the English version, it opened in Farsi by the way! But "what video" :)

[Catherine]

All power struggles aside, it's still not surprising that conservative and principalist legislators are against El Baradei’s proposal to send most of Iran’s current stockpile of low enriched uranium (LEU) abroad for processing. As Hillary Mann Leverett reminds us, "Iran had originally proposed to refuel the Tehran research reactor through purchasing fuel assemblies from international providers, including the United States -- in fact, involving the United States was Iran’s idea of a confidence-building measure. There was a clear consensus within the Iranian leadership in support of this proposal, with President Ahmadinejad speaking about it publicly."

Her entire article in Foreign Policy, 'Pragmatists in Tehran', is very illuminating:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/10/28/pragmatists_in_tehran?page=0,0

[Scott Lucas]

Tricia,

Many apologies. We wanted to put the video on site, but there is a problem with the embed code so it won't play. We're now providing the link to the original on CNN.

S.

[Scott Lucas]

Edward,

No luck here either. I would say technical problem with clips rather than attack.

S.

[Yseut]

Catherine Thanx for the link, neat article; it's somehow comforting
to read this kind of analysis in such profiled medias as FP. The parallel
established between Israel rabbis/ Iranian mullahs and their corollary of prjudices
and virtual racism is indeed illuminating. Yet a reserve at this idea that IRI's
dissensus about nuke's policy " has nothing to do with reformists vs. hardliners,
or the pro-Ahmadinejad camp vs. the anti-Ahmadinejad camp"...The more
we learn about IRI's politics past and present, especially of late, the more it
seems obvious that all kind of conflicts (and possibly confusion) between
factions are at stake in this issue as well (see the Larijani's gesticulations etc.)

[ange paris]

Scott
Thank you so much for keeping us up to date on news from Iran; I am a fan of EA and your daily analyses; please, as you know lots of journalists, could you say to them that this demonstration on wednesday, is not to celebrate the takeover of US embassy but a pretext for the uprising of iranian people against the governement; I don't like this misleading advertising all over the world and it will be a positif point for AN and his fellows; I hope , from today onwards, there will be some articles about it in the foreign newspapers; merci

[Yseut]

Why the Iranian nuclear deal was bound to fail
http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091101/OPINION/710319919/1033
The usual jingle headline, with some pieces of more realistic views than
the usual ;- )
e.g.
"The lesson appears to be that it will be difficult to achieve agreement on an
issue so sensitive to both sides without addressing their mutual mistrust. .../....
The truth is that enrichment is already a reality in Iran. Neither Russia nor
China – nor for that matter such key Iranian neighbours as Iraq and Turkey
– view uranium enrichment by Iran as necessarily posing a military threat,
and are therefore unlikely to back serious sanctions."
Feels so much better when some of the obvious is being stated...

[Scott Lucas]

Ange,

Thank you for kind words. I will be sure to emphasise this to those with whom I speak, and of course Enduring America will try and keep the focus on the 2009 meaning of 13 Aban....

S.

[Samuel]

“Today, it appears that a large proportion of the product of Iran’s nuclear program, which has caused much chaos and brought a number of sanctions for the people, must be handed to another country, in hopes that they will be kind enough to offer us some fuel later on."

Once again the Greens show themselver to be masters of hypocrisy. Now they are attacking AN for giving up too much to the West in the current negotiations. Well who the hell suspended Nuclear Enrichment unilaterally and got ZERO in return??? Well none other than Mousavi's fellow liar President Khatami.

I happen to agree that Iran needs to take a tougher line in the negotiations but it takes real gall for the people who bent over for the West not too long ago to make such arguments.

And speaking of Hypocrites here is an LA Times editorial whining about Turkey's growing alliance with Iran. This is the same paper which never tired of telling us how isolated AN and Iran were.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-turkey31-2009oct31,0,2409017,print.story

latimes.com
Editorial
Turkey flirts with Tehran
NATO's only Muslim member is undermining Western efforts to keep nuclear weapons from Iran by expanding its trade ties.
October 31, 2009

Even as Congress pushes legislation aimed at punishing foreign companies that sell petroleum to Iran, and the United Nations prepares to consider sanctions against that country if an ongoing round of nuclear talks fails, Iranian leaders this week were elated over plans to treble trade ties with a key Middle Eastern power.

So which rogue nation is undermining Western efforts to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons? Syria, perhaps, or the unpredictable Saudis? Actually, it's Turkey, a member of NATO, prospective member of the European Union and the United States' most strategically important Muslim ally.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced plans Wednesday in Tehran to increase trade between the two countries from its current level of about $7 billion to $20 billion by 2011. Turkey and Iran have reportedly reached agreements on power plants, banks and natural gas development that would help make up for any economic pain the United Nations could inflict via tougher sanctions. The deals are fueling worries that Turkey, a model democratic Muslim state and a vital bridge between Europe and the Arab world, is turning its back on the West to embrace Islamist regimes to the east.

Some of those fears are probably overblown. Much has been made, for example, of Turkey's worsening relations with Israel, which went from lukewarm to frosty after the 2008 Gaza incursion. But that's just Middle Eastern politics; Erdogan is reflecting popular anger over Gaza and boosting his status at home by bashing Israel. There's little chance Turkey would jeopardize its ties to the United States and Europe by breaking off relations with Israel.

Yet Ankara's growing attachment to Tehran is troublesome. Part of the blame can be laid on such European leaders as French President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose opposition to Turkey's membership in the European Union has inflamed anti-Western sentiment within Turkey. Another factor is the country's newfound self-confidence. Its economic clout and geopolitical importance have put it in a position to realize long-held desires to be a major player on the world diplomatic stage. Flirting with Iran is a way of asserting independence from the global powers that be.

That self-confidence will probably be on full display Dec. 7, when Erdogan heads to Washington to visit with President Obama. He is expected to be assertive. But Obama needs to do some lecturing of his own. A nuclear-armed Iran is not in Turkey's interest, and Erdogan's frequent assurances that Tehran is solely interested in an energy program are either laughably naive or dangerously cynical.

[kevina]

^@Samuel:

What, no posting of the Montazeri letter again? I've only seen that 3-4 times now.

And, um, the whole point Mousavi's making is that the intransigence/extremism of the Ahmadi gov't. on nukes led to, in his mind, capitulation.

[Samuel]

I have extremely good news for all of the enemies of the Islamic Revolution. THE REGIME WILL FALL ON 13 ABAN.

How do I know this super, super, secret information? Well that is the prediction (sort of) by none other than Michael Ledeen whose reliability for accuracy is matchless. I know many here are big fans of his Photoshopping theories.

Money quote from his site: "The next potential watershed is next Wednesday, November 4th, the anniversary of the assault on the American Embassy in Tehran and the seizure of American hostages.

It’s the perfect date for the fall of the regime, don’t you think?"

http://pajamasmedia.com/michaelledeen/

Yes, Yes, Yes, this is it!!!

All of you secularists (or non muslims) will want to go out and secure a good bottle of quality champagne before it all sells out.

[kevina]

@Samuel:

You understand almost no one here at EA treats Ledeen with any credibility, right?

Green news sources treat him similarly.

[Samuel]

@Kevina

Since you asked here you go. If is wasn't for that letter Montazeri the fraud would be claiming (along with Mousavi and company) that he too spoke for the true legacy of Imam Khomeini.

http://www.baabeilm.org/khomeini/montezari.pdf

Translation of Ayatollah Khomeini Letter Dismissing Montazeri

The text of Ayatollah Khomeini's historic letter was recently printed in Abrar.
Tehran ABRAR 22 Nov 1997, page 2.
In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate. To Mr. Montazeri.

My heart is broken and filled with blood now that I am writing a few words to you. Perhaps one daythe people will realize the facts by reading this letter.

I consider God my witness when I point out the following issues:
Since it has become clear that after me you are going to hand over this country, our dear Islamic revolution, and the Muslim people of Iran to the liberals, and through that channel to the hypocrites
[Mojahedin-e Khalq], you are no longer eligible to succeed me as the legitimate leader of the state.

You, in most of your letters, speeches and stances, have shown that you believe the liberals and hypocrites should rule in this country. It is so clear that your remarks have been dictated by the
hypocrites that I did not see any point in sending a reply. For instance, thanks to your speeches and written work, the hypocrites took advantage of your stance in defense of their ilk to promote a
number of their comrades who had been condemned to death on charges of waging an armed struggle against Islam and the revolution to positions of authority. Can you see what valuable
services you have offered to arrogance? On the issue of the murderer Mahdi Hashemi [a supporter and relative of Ayatollah Montazeri, who was later executed], you considered him to be the most religious person on earth. Despite the fact that it was proved to you that he was a murderer, you kept sending messages to me to spare his life. There are so many other examples, similar to that of Mahdi Hashemi, that I cannot be bothered to mention them all.

[Samuel]

@Kevina

"You understand almost no one here at EA treats Ledeen with any credibility, right?"

I understand very well that many here treated the whole "Khamenei is dead" silliness with a lot of credibility. There were a lot of comments here about the picture of the SL with the President of Senegal being a "fake", "being two years old", a lot of focus on some object on the table being from a prior meeting with the President of Senegal etc. Those were the same exact comments being made by Michael Ledeen.

I also know that the original rumor was by an Iranian website but it was Ledeen who jumped on it (just as he has in the past) and spread the rumor to the eagerly awaiting western press.

The same idiotic western press that was telling us that AN was Jewish a few weeks ago.

[kevina]

An idea for Mr. Lucas:

As much as I profoundly disagree with him, I think it would be great to give Samuel his own post. I'd love to know a bit on his background that led him to his views, what exactly those views are, etc.

Why, for example, does he think the Supreme Leadership, unelected by the population as a whole, is ideal? Does he believe the official June 12 numbers? Etc.

We've danced around these things in comments. I'd appreciate a more complete dialogue.

[Samuel]

@Kevina

"And, um, the whole point Mousavi’s making is that the intransigence/extremism of the Ahmadi gov’t. on nukes led to, in his mind, capitulation."

And what exactly would you call President Khatami's unilateral suspension of enrichment (FOR WHICH HE RECEIVED NOTHING IN RETURN) if not, to use your word "CAPITULATION"?

[kevina]

Confidence building/trying to avoid bad consequences. Trying to reassure vs. antagonizing.

[Somebody]

Feeding trolls only keeps them coming back.

[pessimist]

O my god, it looks like things are more complicated than imagined. I bet it's all because of 'pride', that mysterious bit of human personality. I wonder what neuronal (brain) region is responsible, couldn't we just wack it with some sort of laser killer, or some new pill, or stem cell 'repairs' (iranians supposedly have v. good research) ? Imagine the results, the world might become a real loving village.. well, science fiction is sometimes only a doorstep away from future reality.

[Megan]

Somebody,

I agree.

To All,

I second the motion by Somebody. Please let us ignore the troll, the one and only who is kissing KH and AN A** for breakfast, lunch and dinner. I am so sick of his repetitive rants.

[Adam]

Samuel,

It's interesting to me that someone who speaks english so fluently and does so much research would tow the regime's line so mechanically. The only person I have seen that reminds me of Samuel's tone is Mohammad Marandi, who is a total Ahmadinejad lap-dog and propogandist, on the regime's payroll to teach his captive students at the University of Tehran, and he is probably paid to tow the regime line in western media. Fareed Zakaria outed him, yet inexplicably he is sometimes "interviewed" in western media as if he's an authority on anything. My guess is you know him Samuel.

[Megan]

Pessimist,

They have chromosome disorder. Human cells have 46 chromosomes. Those you are referencing have 45 chromosomes. Our DNA is made of four bases, theirs has 3 bases. No medication or laser therapy is going to help them. The only solution is genetic engineering. I understand some Green Movement scientists are working on it.

[Samuel]

@Adam

There is no way that I tow the regime's line mechanically. I have always said the AN's dabbling in Holocaust Denial is insane. The Jewish Holocaust, like the Armenian Genocide at the beginning of the 20th century, is a historical fact beyond dispute. Engaging in Holocaust Denial is not only wrong but it distracts from the very real Zionist crimes being comitted in Palestine every day.

I also disagree strongly with AN when it comes to nepotism and for his overemphasis on individuals being personally loyal to him.

For example how many know that the recently installed head of the Basij, Gen. Mohammad Reza Naqdi, was once fired by AN??? Or that his current postition as head of the Basij is almost totally due to the SL and not AN??? Naqdi, who was born in Iraq and who has vast experience in Iraq and Lebanon, is a fantastic choice for heading the Basij but he wouldn't have gotten the job if AN had his way because Naqdi is not a yes man.

[Samuel]

@Megan,

Thank you for the kind words.