Hossein says:

In the opinion of man thinkers and truthful observers, the IR regime despite draconian measures and brutal crackdown of innocent people, is on its way out. For the first time even western pundits who have been blinded to the realities in Iran by their hatred of the previous administration and because of outdated anti imperialist sentiments, are coming around. Up to now some were saying that the western intelligence agencies (the usual names) are fermenting a “green revolution” which is far from the truth. They are now seeing clearly what we have seen unfold on the streets in Iran, namely that the “green” is a genuine grass roots movement and is not the result of some sinister western plot. We in Iran have known otherwise for decades now. People, majority of Iranians in fact, are fed up with the regime of lies and torture and corruption and death. Enough! We want freedom and the rule of law. We want the government of truthful Iranians and not cruel despots who put forth a fabricated ideology of death and fundamentalist Islam. We want real democracy. No one is dictating this to us. Western liberals should come and see for themselves how genuine and real the movement is. No one is receiving “orders” from some boggy “enemy.” Please give us more credit. We want freedom and democracy just like everybody else. We are fed up with lies and with corruption and with torture and the culture of death. No more “death to!” We want “life to!” and we aspire to gain our freedom ourselves. Don’t belittle us by agreeing with the despots that there is some “enemy” some western power who is doing this. No! We Iranians want freedom ourselves and we are not lackeys of anyone. Long live life. Freedom! This is our cry.

Kevin Scott says:

Is this the oppositions’ moment? Fascinating question.

If you all can bear with me, I’m going to frame what I think is the biggest question (of several) by making an analogy between 13 Aban and American football. :)

In 2008, at the beginning of the American Football season, the Miami Dolphins traveled to New England to play their rivals, the New England Patriots. The year before, the Dolphins had been hopeless. They were the worst team in football. The Patriots, on the other hand, had lost only one game all year – the Super Bowl. The Patriots had won 3 of the 5 previous Super bowls. The Patriots were favored by more than 25 points.

The Dolphins then unveiled a completely new offense, with a completely new formation called the “Wildcat”, and a strategy that nobody had seen before. Players would line up and play different positions than they usually played. The Patriots were confused and confounded. The Dolphins proceeded to rout the Patriots in front of 80,000 screaming Patriots fans.

A few weeks later, the Dolphins and Patriots played again, in a “rematch”. This time, the Patriots were ready. They’d seen the Wildcat before. They’d played videotape of it; they’d formed strategy about how to stop it. The Dolphins came out and tried to do the exact same thing they’d done a few weeks earlier. The Patriots crushed them.

To me, here’s the analogy: The Greens are the Miami Dolphins. The regime is the New England Patriots. The first game between them is analogous to the Quds Day faceoff. The Greens had an entirely new tactic on Quds Day which confused the regime: take over demonstrations on a day when demonstrations were not only tolerated, but were historically encouraged. The regime was caught unprepared and flatfooted. They had no good response. Greens have regained momentum since then.

13 Aban is the “rematch”. But now the regime knows what is coming. They have seen the Quds Day protests. They have watched videotape of the Quds Day protest. They’ve had 6 weeks to plan a new strategy about how to defeat the Quds Day strategy. They know that 13 Aban is the next big moment when the Greens will make their move.

If the Greens simply come out, like the Miami Dolphins, and do the exact same thing they did on Quds Day, they will likely be defeated. The regime is now expecting it, and they’ll have prepared for that. The Greens are going to have to show something a little different, and a little more advanced, such as more organization than before, enough people to overwhelm a huge security force, more thought about how to confuse the regime with routing, etc. Something new.

The good news is that after their loss to the Patriots, the Dolphins started innovating with their Wildcat. Every game, they would bring new strategies, and they’d tweak things just a little bit. Other teams could not prepare adequately. The Dolphins ended up recovering, winning 9 of their last 10 games and making the playoffs. Hopefully, rather than going through a loss in the “rematch”, the Greens will know this in advance and will be able to employ it to win! :)

Megan says:

Hossein,

Brilliantly said. We are with you all the way. In Solidarity, there will be demonstrations scheduled for 13 Aban (November 4) on both coasts of United Sates, from Washington DC to Los Angeles.

Epersainradio will broadcast events in Iran live on 13 Aban and we will be listening to it.

Kevin Scott says:

Megan -

there are a bunch of us on the U.S. East Coast waiting to come together for a demonstration on 13 Aban, but as of yet we cannot find a confirmed protest site and time. We assume that D.C. is the most likely place (perhaps along with NYC), so we are planning to be there. If you hear anything definite, can you comment here, or send to me at twitter.com/KevinScottDC or KevinScottDC@gmail.com ? Thanks so much!

Observer says:

Perhaps the reality of everyday life, as Mousavi suggested, has changed irrevocably. Time does move on, and since Quds Day, the regime has lost a great deal both locally and elsewhere.

It bullies, threatens, tightens its grip in every way possible with few results, and each new atrocity pushes the actors deeper into the loss column. The way things really are is different now. For the Greens, staying alive IS winning.

Mr. Hossein, thank you for your beautiful thoughts. So very many are with you in spirit and in prayer.

Catherine says:

@ Observer re “Perhaps the reality of everyday life, as Mousavi suggested, has changed irrevocably. Time does move on, and since Quds Day, the regime has lost a great deal both locally and elsewhere.”

This is obviously having an effect on how the regime is handling the current negotiations with the P5 +1 countries regarding the IAEA proposal. A quote by Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations says it all: “The underlying problem is this: there’s been a breakdown in the country’s foreign policy machinery. Iran doesn’t have a foreign policy right now. It has domestic politics, and its foreign policies are just a sporadic expression of that. It’s not sinister; it’s not duplicitous; it’s just incompetent.”

Found in
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-cmanus1-2009nov01,0,594492.column

Bill Davit says:

Hossein,

Well said. It is ironic that the original supreme leader stated they came to power because the Shah did not listen to the people. Seems to me like the current supreme leader is doing exactly what the Shah did. While I have many issues with Islamic scripture one of the most vexing issues is “there is no compulsion in religion.” It seems to me that the Iranian regime forgot to read this in the Quran because to them everything is compulsory. Many will argue this was abrogated but forget most of the abrogation was in reference to dealings with non muslims(which in my mind is still a big problem for interfaith issues when one side has a we vs them mentality.) Ironically the first supreme leader even discussed this yet it was him who moved the state towards totalitarian type of government. Fundamentally I think the issue is that any type of theocracy lends itself to a totalitarian type structure because they believe their truth is the only truth. I wish you all the best and may Iran be free one day.

thx
Bill

Hossein says:

Radan who has threatened 13th Aban demonstrators is the man responsible for the Kahrizak rapes and brutality, where he had himself joined others in beating the innocent youth unlawfully detained. People hate him and know this type of behavior will no longer be tolerated.

ange paris says:

Iranian government has created a new mouvement called “jonbesh sabz alavi”!! green mouvement alavi, asking pro AN people to wear in green during the demonstrations !! the journalist is very happy because according to him, this decision, either will cheer the protesters up ( new supporters) or has shown the defeat of government !!

http://7tir.info/index/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=22385

http://www.farsnews.net/newstext.php?nn=8808100183

Yseut says:

ange paris What about this ”Jonbesh sabs alavi” ? Is it brand new
-just released- ? Did you see it mentioned anywhere else in web medias ?
Could it be designed to phase-out or throw confusion
among Green Mvt supporters in the rallye of next wednesday ? This
regime’s reactions and maneuvres sound more & more schoolyard like
(only, they got real guns and weapons to use)

Yseut says:

ange -brilliant ! effectivement une excellente raison ;- ) Thanx

Hossein says:

Excellent point. I think Kevin’s analogy works well and the Green must now solidify the core and bring about a defined strategy. Thanks to Roe Lassie and Ange. I have heard that the government is desperate but they only know one thin g: violence as a means to perpetuate themselves. Their lies and their deceit over the past 30 years has met its end. Large majority of Iranian people no longer believe anything the say, and this fact is known yet denied. We want truth, and we want lawful processes to define our next encounter with the world. No more giving away our money to support groups whose ideology and tactics serve only the obscurantist forces of Islam. The majority reject the false belief, the false fundamentalist perspective that among other things has no respect for women nor for modernity. No more hate! We want life! Freedom! Stop fermenting chaos by giving our money away to radical backward and hate mongers in the Middle East. Please, no more. Obscurantist behavior and radical ideology and the desire to wipe people from the face of the earth are not what we believe in nor what we we advocate in the least. Enough hate. A.N. and his harsh mercenaries are near their end. We don’t want them controlling our destiny and shouting death slogans we do not identify with one bit.

Anahita says:

@Megan

Do you have a link for these audio files?

Megan says:

Anahita,

Yes, here is the link: http://www.zandiq.com/pandiq/0000000003.shtml

There are 10 audio files. These audio files have been recorded during a training seminar held following the aftermath of 18 of tir massacre at student dormitory at Tehran University in 1999. Yet when you listen to them you will see they used the same training manual and the same tactics in 2009.

In this two-day training seminar participants are taught how to gather and disseminate information to central government for effective quelling of any dissent long before it becomes a protest. It tells them bluntly and forcefully that their heads will roll if a protest pops up in their city due to their ineffectiveness. It teaches participants how to monitor candidates (left or right leaning) for elected offices so that the government can discredit and shut down their campaign efforts before they get elected. It tells the participants how to collect information on publishers/ editors of newspapers that are not friendly to the government so the government can discredit them as foreign agents and shut them down. It mentions how to monitor and collect information on clerics and politicians and student leaders, etc. It tells them how to control crowd and to remove dead bodies and hide them until demonstration has been put down. The speaker in audio file # 6 specifically talks about how they removed the bodies of students who were killed on 18 Tir 1378 (jelly 9, 1999) to a secret locations until after they had quelled demonstration.

Tape # 1 in detail discusses a video tape taken during the attack on student dormitory at Tehran University and in Tape # 7 you hear the speaker stating that government had paid a student to film the clash. In order word government has infiltrated the movement deeply and successfully.

Tapes # 7 and #8 reveals how government has its secret agents planted in the crowd to lead the demonstration to certain routes where security forces are waiting for them. The instructor/speaker also states that they paid students to film protest at university and use the tape to arrest and convict protesters. They also brag how they recruited and paid photographs working for newspapers that were not friendly with the government and have them work (for some quick cash) as under-cover photographer for the government.

In audio file # 5, the person conducting the session makes fun of those who want to start a dialog with the U.S. (He may be referring to Khatami who was president in 1999). He outlines several conditions that U.S. has to meet before any discussion for example dissolution of CIA, NATO closing of all U.S. military bases around the world, annihilation of Israel, and few others.

You hear these thugs bragging and sharing their success stories. You hear the head of security for Central Government bribing the trainees with promises of lavish trips with no shame.

As i said before, though this two-training was held 10 years ago we have witnessed the use of same tactics and then some this year.

Barry ward says:

Arshama

I believe I know where you are coming from – however, I see the past 30 years in Iran to be somewhat analagous to the 20 years in Germany from 1916 to 1933. It took a long time for the evil to grow in Germany, aided by the people of Germany – and the evil that is now well entrenched in Iran after 30 years, has also been aided by the people of Iran.

Analogies always fall over somewhere – and my analogy is perhaps faulty.

However, it is said “What you sow is what you will reap” – and this applies to the Iranian nation. Perhaps, and hopefully, it is not too late for the Iranian nation to lance their own boils. But, if not, I fear, it will be left to others as has happened before.

Barry

Hossein says:

BILL
Point well taken. It is scary to know that the regime in Iran will have an atomic weapon soon. Indeed the are capable of using it too. Believe me, we all know this. The phony statements made by the Leader that Islam does not allow for such weapons is an incredible example of taqiyyeh (taqiyya in the Arabic pronunciation) and is a blatant lie. The pundits in the West must wake up from their anti U.S. outdated simplistic ideology and take a good look at the real danger here. It is certainly NOT the U.S. nor NATO, but the Islamic regime in Iran fits the bill well. We know this, and now the majority know this, too. Believe me, we also know very well what has in fact been stated, often behind so called “closed doors” but in Iran there are always ways for the utmost secrets of state to get out. Someone has a friend who has a friend, or a man has a lover who has a friend, etc., and that is how we get the real news. The regime wants nuclear power and will not stop in any way, and they even beleive they will get away from using it. They do say, among themselves, that the West will be too bound by procedure and by by shock to do anything. They may be right, but I certainly hope not. I am scared to be very hone3st with you BIll.

Thanks, we are so passionately working for the day we will be freed of the mafia control of Iran, of the rapists, the killers, the deceitful few who very cleverly took over when the rest of us were either too naiive or fooled.

Bill Davit says:

Hossein,

No thanks needed but welcome in any event. I do not judge your or Iranians any different than others. When I see injustice I speak up and in this case I have done so as well. Your comments are a “bright positive light” in an otherwise bleak story coming out of Iran at the hands of the regime. Like you I vehemently protest the self loathing liberal left in the West that have the audacity to defend the regime. This liberal left does not realize if this same regime was governing them all their liberal values/laws they want would be thrown out overnight. I often like to point out to them how in the early days of the revolution the left helped the islamists only to be betrayed and killed off in the thousands afterwards. The regime used them just like it tries to do to you and your fellow Iranians today. The sad fact is in face of the nuclear issue the cause of the Iranian people has been largely ignored. What amazes me is the fact that the regime would never have even negotiated on the nuclear issue if the domestic problems were not so severe–if only the liberals really knew why the regime is even open to talks. I sinceraly wish you the best and I believe if you remain true to your cause things will get better. You cannot igonore tens of millions of people and hope to stay in power! My prayers will be with you, your family, and friends of the Green Wave. Free Iran!!!!!

Thx
Bill

Hossein says:

Among the slogans of the Green were “Iran does not want an atom bomb”; “death to nobody!” and “Iranian Republic” all of which are clear indications of a new sense of being in Iran. The West should lend this moral support and stop Kowtowing to the IR. Please!

Clive Rasey says:

You can challege the leaderships lies on PressTV website
You can question the role of the Guardian Council in Iran.
You can ask why if George Bush will accept the restraint of just two terms in office with an election after four years then people of Iran have no real choice over their leader.
The Supreme Leader in Iran as never had to face a popular vote – he is appointed. He has the real power.
**
You can point out how Irans leaders are using the Palestinian conflict, in the same way that that rulers in Europe used the Crusades in the Middle Ages.
It helps them distract people from things that are wrong in Iran.
**
You can remind people in Iran of their fine ancient culture. They do not have to accept this present childish primitive leadership.
You can show how far from being an Islamic Republic this present regime brings disgarce to both Iran and Islam.
**
You can remind people in the USA, Europe and elsewhere that there are Muslims and Iranian citizens who are cultured and inteligent and have a vauable place in the modern world.