The Latest from Iran (16 February): Un-Diplomatic Declarations

1955 GMT: The lawyer for 21-year-old Amir Reza Arefi says his client has been sentenced to death for "mohareb" (war against God). Arefi was arrested in April 2009, before the June election.

1945 GMT: Keeping Rafsanjani in His Box. An EA correspondent puts together an important story: with the 7th general assembly of the Assembly of Experts due next week, probably on Tuesday and Wednesday, new attacks have been launched upon Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Assembly.

A statement from a number of clerics at Qom declares that, due to the performance of Hashemi Rafsanjani in the past few months, he is not suitable to continue in his post. And Fars News, criticising Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi for not returning to Iran after five months abroad, asserts that his settling in London is "strange and suspicious".

NEW Iran Special: Live-Blogging Ahmadinejad Press Conference (16 February)
NEW Iran: Why The Beating of Mehdi Karroubi’s Son Matters
NEW Iran Document: The 10-Demand Declaration of 4 Labour Unions
NEW Iran Document: Shadi Sadr at the UN on Abuse, Justice, and Rights (12 February)
Latest Iran Video: US Analysis (Gary Sick) v. Overreaction (Stephens, Haass)
Iran: The IHRDC Report on Violence and Suppression of Dissent
Iran: Human Rights Watch Report on Post-Election Abuses (11 February)
The Latest from Iran (15 February): Withstanding Abuse

1715 GMT: The Karroubi Wave. It appears that the Karroubi family --- not just Mehdi Karroubi, but the family --- are ready to propel the next wave of opposition to the Government and regime. In addition to Fatemeh Karroubi's interview (1600 GMT), Mehdi Karroubi's son Hossein has spoken out to Radio Zamaneh.


Hossein Karroubi says that his brother Ali was detained, while in the Karroubi entourage on 22 Bahman, by police and then handed to plainsclothesmen, who took him to the Amir-ol-momenin Mosque, mentioned in the letter written by his mother Fatemeh to the Supreme Leader. (The reason why Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi could make his statement that he did not issue an arrest warrant for Ali Karroubi, implying the entire story has been fabricated, is because there was none; Ali Karroubi was simply taken away.)

After his beating, Ali Karroubi was asked by police to sign a declaration that he was not abused in detention. He replied, "How can I sign such a declaration when my skull in fractured and my body is bruised?" So he wask asked to sign that he was not beaten by the police.

Hossein Karroubi says there will be no complaint lodged with the Judiciary as it no longer has power to deal with these matter; not does the Tehran Prosecutor General have any authority, or the courage, to deal with the “lebas shakhsis" (plainclothes operatives) who are operating with complete impunity.

And here's the stinger in Hossein Karroubi's tale: he argues that the plainclothes forces are supported from "very high up" (presumably meaning Ayatollah Khamenei or his office). This is why his mother wrote to the Supreme Leader, because --- as with the Kahrizak Prison scandal --- it is only he who could order a proper investigation into such matters.

More on this in an analysis on Wednesday....

1645 GMT: Releases for the Martyrs? Rahe-Sabz writes that the children of martyrs, such as Ali Motahhari (the son of Ayatollah Morteza Motahhari), have demanded release of political activists at a meeting with Iran's head of judiciary, Sadegh Larijani. The report claims that Larijani declared there will be several releases, on low bail, to come.

1640 GMT: The Detention Centres of 22 Bahman. Peyke Iran reports that a former textile company near Azadi Square was used as a holding area for detainees last Thursday, keeping 20 women and 50 men before they were transported to Evin Prison. Amir-ol-momenin Mosque -- significantly the claimed location of the beating of Ali Karroubi --- was also used on 22 Bahman.

1635 GMT: The Economic Challenge. Another piece of evidence to support the pressing questions that Ahmadinejad weakly fielded at today's press conference (see 1455 GMT). The Iranian Labor News Agency says that the denial of industry minister Ali Akbar Mehrabian --- difficulties in the economy will be overcome --- will make no difference to the hardships of companies who are dying faster than they can be created: "Officials should take care today, tomorrow it will be much too late."

1625 GMT: Author and film critic Ardavan Tarakameh has been released on $30,000 bail after 50 days in detention. Mohammad Moin, the son of former Presidential candidate Mostafa Moin, has also been released on bail.

In contrast, economics professor and Mir Hossein Mousavi advisor Ali Arabmazar has not been charged after 50 days in prison.

1620 GMT: Sequel to "A Strange Shooting" (see 1235 GMT). Tabnak reports that the shooting around the car of Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, the former Speaker of Parliament, happened when security forces mistook the vehicle for one used by drug smugglers. When it failed to stop they fired warning shots in the air.

1615 GMT: Diversions. Follow-up on the Ahmadinejad press conference --- Reuters has now decided that the story is the President's hope that the case of the three arrested US citizens, detained while walking in northern Iran, may soon be resolved.

1600 GMT: The Karroubi Challenge. Following up on Mr Verde's analysis of the significance of the beating of Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali....

Fatemeh Karroubi, wife of Mehdi and mother of Ali, has told Rooz Online has spoken about the incident while declaring, “[We] will not under any circumstances back down on the rights of the Iranian people....The letter that I published a few days ago was not only for my own child, but for the children who are in prison. I wrote it with the hope that these things wouldn’t occur again.”

She recalled, “On the night that my [detained] son returned home, I was in shock and could not believe that they could say to Ali: ‘You were lucky, if you had stayed here for a couple more hours, instead of you we would be handing your corpse over [to your family].” Ali Karroubi had been forced to sign a statement saying that he would not give any interviews following his release.

Asked about the possibility of negotiating a settlement with the Government, Fatemeh Karroubi replied:

In my opinion, the interests of the country and demands and rights of the people are very important. This is not at all personal. Such a thing [a settlement] is not in any way possible....

I am stressed. But my concern and stress is neither for my husband nor for my children, but for the country, the revolution and the people of my country. Let me say this clearly, the more pressure there is, the more determined my family and I will be.

1455 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Two-Hour Stumble. The "Western" media is already reducing the President's press conference to the line-item of Tehran's defiance of the West: "Iran says it would respond to any new sanctions" (Reuters); "Iran says the world "will regret" sanctions" (BBC); "Iranian president warns against tougher sanctions" (CNN).

That's a shame, because the nuclear issue was about the only one on which Ahmadinejad was secure during his lengthy appearance. Indeed, the Government's strategy continues to be to use the negotiations with the West to show both strength and legitimacy; thus Press TV walks hand-in-hand with their Western counterparts, "Iran warns powers will 'regret' sanctions response".

The big story should be Ahmadinejad's internal difficulties. He came out fighting over the challenge to his right-hand man, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, but he floundered badly on the economic issues. It is significant that the majority of questions from Iran's journalists, as opposed to foreign correspondents, were on the economy, and Ahmadinejad was close to incapable of handling challenges over Iran's economic growth, investment plans, unemployment and inflation figures, and even his budget. He was caught out at times by a lack of basic information, and at one point he simply made up a statistic for Iran's Gross Domestic Product.

Nor did Ahmadinejad, perhaps surprisingly, get away on post-election problems, despite his attempt to parade "tens of millions" of Iranians who supported him on 11 February. He evaded, weakly, a couple of questions about detentions before lamenting, "Of course we are sorry" that anyone has been arrested. Time and time again, he fell back on denunciations of the "ugly face" of the US, the regional intrigues of Western powers, and proclamations of their weakness vs. Iran's strength.

We'll watch for reactions but, for all Ahmadinejad's bluster and stamina, this does not look like the post-22 Bahman stamp of authority he was seeking.

1450 GMT: We have moved the live-blog of the Ahmadinejad press conference to a separate entry. A snap analysis follows in a few minutes.

1300 GMT: Journalist Sam Mahmoudi Sarabi has been released on $300,000 bail after 44 days in detention, 30 of which were in solitary confinement.

1235 GMT: A Strange "Shooting". We break from Mahmoud and the Prophets for an unusual story. Iranian media is reporting that shots were fired at a car carrying Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, former Speaker of Parliament, as it was travelling to Shiraz. Some official accounts say the shots were fired by mistake by the police, but the "conservative" Jahan News thinks there might have been foul play.

1210 GMT: On the Economic Front. Yesterday we noted the extensive comments of Mohammad Parsa of Iran's electricity syndicate on the difficulties in the industry, with 900,000 workers on the verge of dismissal and a Government debt of 5 billion toman ($5.06 million) to the electricity providers. Aftab News now also carries the interview.

1200 GMT: No White Smoke Update. At his press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki limited his remarks on uranium enrichment talks to the general statement, "We have informed our Turkish friends about the latest developments on Iran's peaceful nuclear case. While we are continuing our (nuclear) activities we will consider any new idea or proposal, either given directly or indirectly via the agency (International Atomic Energy Agency)." Mottaki also downplayed Turkey's role, saying Ankara was "not a mediator but a major part in constant consultations for restoring peace and calm in the region".

So, while we cannot know if there were advances in the private Mottaki-Davutoglu talks, Tehran's public position is to stretch out the negotiations. Another sign of the low-key Iran approach is that Press TV's website still has no reference to the nuclear issue from this morning's conference.

1030 GMT: No White Smoke. Press TV's broadcast summary of the press conference of Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and his Turkish counterpart, Ahmet Davutoglu, makes no reference to uranium enrichment. There are only general platitudes about the two countries being "keys to regional stability" and the encouragement of bilateral trade relations.

0855 GMT: Mr Verde checks in with an analysis of the significance of the alleged beating of Mehdi Karroubi's son Ali.

0845 GMT: No, You're the Dictatorship. If we must continue with this story....

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has responded to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's claim that Iran is moving towards "military dictatorship" (see 0710 GMT): "They themselves are involved in a sort of military dictatorship and have practically ignored the realities and the truths in the region. America has a wrong attitude toward the issues in the Middle East and it is the continuation of their past wrong policies."

0755 GMT: A Moving Campaign. Iranian-American Youth (IAY) and Justice Through Music (JTM) will be carrying out a mobile billboard advertising campaign in Washington, D.C. today. Messages on the billboards will try to raise awareness of the internal situation and foster support for the opposition movement.

0740 GMT: Wayward Analysis. Yesterday's un-diplomatic declarations are accompanied by the superficial analysis of The New York Times this morning, "US Encounters Limits of Iran Engagement Policy". This piece builds from this episode:

Gen. James L. Jones, President Obama’s national security adviser, and Manouchehr Mottaki, the Iranian foreign minister, were in the same place at the same time, attending a high-level security conference in Munich with a number of high-ranking officials from around the world. And yet the two made no plans to meet with each other.

This is a very large herring because US-Iranian discussions would not take place between these senior advisors. (Mottaki's visit to Munich was made at the last minute and primarily so he could indicate that Iran might be open to a "swap" of uranium outside the country.) Instead, as in Geneva last autumn, talks would be held formally between the officials handling the nuclear brief or, behind the scales, between lower-level members of the diplomatic staff. The article has no recognition, for example, that quiet chats probably continue over areas of common interest such as Iraq and Afghanistan. And it never considers third-party brokers such as Turkey.

Put bluntly, The Times complements posturing such as Hillary Clinton's declaration by operating under the erroneous assumption that contacts between the US and Iran have been suspended.

0730 GMT: Top Journalism Award for Neda's Filmers. A George Polk Award, one of the top prizes in US journalism, has been given to the unnamed people who filmed the death of Neda Agha Soltan, the 26-year-old woman who died from a Basij gunshot during the 20 June demonstrations. The panel declared, "This award celebrates the fact that, in today's world, a brave bystander with a cell phone camera can use video-sharing and social networking sites to deliver news."

0725 GMT: Pressing for Rights. We have posted the text of human rights lawyer Shadi Sadr's address to the United Nations last Friday: "In addition to the numerous examples of human rights that are systematically violated...during the post-election events, basic and fundamental human rights remain in serious peril, such as equality of persons before the law, the right to peaceful assembly, the rights of political prisoners, and the rights of human rights defenders and civil society activists."

0710 GMT: With few public moves in Iran over the post-election conflict on Monday, most attention was on diplomatic diversions outside the country. Foremost amongst these was Hillary Clinton's apparently impromptu remark, at a Town Hall meeting in Qatar, that Iran was becoming a "military dictatorship".

Clinton's remark is less significant as an analysis of developments in Tehran than as a possible pointer of a shift in Washington's policy. However, if you go below the surface, there are only questions. With Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Iran today in an attempt to broker a deal on uranium enrichment (and he is unlikely to be there without the endorsement of Washington), Clinton's comment appears to be either a dissonant line or a rather clumsy attempt to warn the Iranians into accepting the bargain as well as justifying sanctions against the Republican Guard if the uranium deal is not agreed.

And there was more muddle in Tel Aviv, where the top US military commander, Admiral Mike Mullen, was discussing regional matters with Israeli counterparts and ministers. His refusal to rule out any option, while at the same time warning clearly of adverse consequences if there was an airstrike on Iran, meant that his statement could be seized by both proponents and opponents of military action. (Behind the public posture, I am almost certain that Washington has again warned Israel off any operations, but there is the possibility that the US is offering the clause, "In the future, however....")

If there was a notable setpiece on the international front on Monday, it came in Geneva, where the US, Britain, and France led the effort at the UN Human Rights Council to castigate Iran's post-election abuses. Of course, Tehran responded --- through Iranian High Council for Human Rights SecretaryGeneral Mohammad Javad Larijani --- that all was well and Iran was advancing social rights for groups like women and children. The episode indicated, however, that Washington and its allies will match any "engagement" with public pressure, and not only on the nuclear issue.

Inside Iran, the more important tension was over President Ahmadinejad's economic plans. The high-profile political challenge of the "conservatives" was complemented by a series of statements from members of Parliament criticising part or all of the Ahmadinejad budget. No signs yet that the conservatives will return to their more dramatic confrontation over the post-elections abuses, calling for the head of Ahmadinejad aide Saeed Mortazavi, but it is evident that the President's 22 Bahman performance has not quelled opposition.

Outside the establishment, Monday was notable for signs of labour activism. While a report of planned civil disobedience by the Tehran Bus Workers Union turned out to be untrue, the union joined three others in putting forth a public statement of ten demands (see separate entry).

Comments

[Anthony]

I have a better idea. We (the US) has extended our hand, Iran is not interested, and say "OK, if you want to talk, you know where we are" and drop it. Iran will build a nuclear weapon if they wish, and there is nothing anyone can do about it. No sanctions, as all that will do is enrich politically connected correct businessmen, though we should not sell them nuclear technology.

Our policy should be no policy, except to make it clear that the use of a nuclear weapon by Iran or some terrorist group tied to Iran will be met with disproportionate response.

Further, we should stay out of their election battle. To me there seems little difference between the current regime and the "reformers" -- when Mousavi was Prime Minister the government allowed no dissent. If anything, more dissent is allowed now. And other than the educated, semi-Westernized middle class enclaves (and Iran has a large educated middle class to be sure), is there really any support for the "reformers".

So in short, we should stop the pleading with Iran to talk to us, make it clear that we will leave them alone, stay out of their little family squabble but also make it clear that we will flatten their major cities if they or one of their proxies uses a nuclear weapon.

[Megan]

Re: 8:45

Having misguided foreign policy in ME does not make a country a military dictatorship. Rigging election for 30 years, arresting, beating, torturing, raping and killing your own people who protest and do not want your make believe brand of democracy is Military dictatorship. Do you get Mr. Dumbbell Mottaki?

[Megan]

Scott,

Mohammad Javad Larijani is not Judiciary official.

[Arshama]

Anthony,

1. Could you please explain what you mean by "we will flatten their major cities"?
2. What is your suggestion for the case of a nuclear attack, i.e. on Israel? Perhaps a nuclear counter-attack?

Thanks
Arshama

[Scott Lucas]

Megan,

My understanding is that he is Judiciary's top official for "human rights" but I will revert to the formal title in the post.

Scott

[ange paris]

Anthony
What you have forgotten is that the world need a secure Iran to be able to live peacefully; peace in Iran, with a wise and responsible regime, brings well being all over the world because the position of Iran is a strategic 's one; it's why, the international solidarity is needed to save all the people in the world ! iranian problem is not a domestic's one, it belongs to human species all over the planet .

[Anthony]

Arshama -- it means what it means. I am a fan of disproportionate response in some cases.

And if a nuclear weapon is launched from Iran and lands anywhere, or if some Iranian supported terrorist group sets off a nuclear weapon anywhere, I would support a nuclear counter attack (if the Iranian people don't want it, then hang their leaders who used nuclear weapons from posts).

As for the rest, if we can live with a nuclear Pakistan, I think we can learn to live with a nuclear Iran. Not happily, but we can live with it.

ange paris -- frankly, while I am a believer in liberal democracy I think Iran's internal concerns are her own and that for various reasons the west needs to stay out of Iran's internal matters.

[The Latest from Iran (16 Febru]

[...] from:  The Latest from Iran (16 February): Un-Diplomatic Declarations … Share and [...]

[Catherine]

RE 0710 GMT: ... Hillary Clinton’s apparently impromptu remark, at a Town Hall meeting in Qatar, that Iran was becoming a “military dictatorship”.

Hard to tell if it was impromptu (although it's easy to think so because of her history of this sort of un-diplomatic bomblets) seeing as she not only hammered the point home afterwards to reporters while flying from Doha to Saudi Arabia, and again after meeting with Saudi King Abdullah, but made statements that many would consider interfering in the internal affairs of another country:

"The evidence we've seen of this increasing decision-making (by the Revolutionary Guard) cuts across all areas of Iranian security policy, and certainly nuclear policy is at the core of it," Clinton told reporters flying with her from Doha to Saudi Arabia.

Clinton told reporters it appears the Revolutionary Guard is in charge of Iran's controversial nuclear program and the country changing course "depends on whether the clerical and political leadership begin to reassert themselves."

She added: "I'm not predicting what will happen but I think the trend with this greater and greater military lock on leadership decisions should be disturbing to Iranians as well as those of us on the outside."

Clinton said Iran in its current state is "a far cry from the Islamic Republic that had elections and different points of view within the leadership circle. That is part of the reason that we are so concerned with what we are seeing going on there."

It's amazing. She is telling the clerics and MPs in Iran to get back in charge of running Iran's uranium enrichment programme (which, last we heard, her government actually wants stopped) and lamenting the passing of good ole early days of the Islamic Revolution. :-) I have never seen so many mixed messages on a single issue or country as I have in the Obama administration vis-a-vis Iran over the past year.

[ange paris]

Anthony
We are not in a video game !!

[Anthony]

ange paris

And neither are we. I think there is nothing that can be done to stop Iran building nuclear weapons if they want to. All that can be done is to learn to lvie with that fact. Google "MAD" sometime and you will see that deterrance can work quite well.

[Catherine]

The financial power of the Revolutionary Guards
It is impossible to gauge its share of Iran's GDP, but western estimates range from a third to nearly two-thirds
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/15/financial-power-revolutionary-guard

[Greeny]

1235 GMT: A Strange “Shooting”.

The link in the post is to Jahan News, not Javan News. Jahan is conservative too.

It could be an attempt to stage an unsuccessful “assassination plot” against Hadad-Adel. It would enhance is “revolutionary” profile: after all, if someone shoots at you (and they may well be “Zionist agents” or “CIA agents” or “British agents”, etc) it must mean that you’re important in IR.

It could also be an attempt to pin it on the opposition and call for arrest of Mousavi, Karroubi, etc.

May also be an attempt to divert attention from the torture of Ali Karroubi. Regime thugs shot at Karroubi’s car in Qazvin not long ago. So now “someone” “shoots” at Hadad-Adel’s car. And in IR politics this cancels that out. In the same vein that one day after Clinton says IR is becoming a military dictatorship, Motaki says, no, US is a military dictatorship.

[Arshama]

@ 1305 GMT: IRNA interview with AN, the economic issue, where he says, “We will move to production. Overhead costs will be reduced. Banking resources will be directed in the right way”, etc., etc.

ISNA has an interview with economic expert Dr. Mahmoud Jamsaz, saying that "81 % of the projects of the 4th Development Plan were not implemented, we failed a bit to reach our goals": http://isna.ir/ISNA/NewsView.aspx?ID=News-1488703

[Publicola]

A (more / perceptibly) democratically legitimized Iranian government would be an anchor of security and a boon to turbulent world politics, as suspected and suggested for example by the following interview (way back in the past, in 2000, during the Khatami-government) with the then German Foreign Secretary Fischer:

[Excerpts/Quotes from the Interview with the then German Minister of Foreign Affairs Joschka Fischer on the occasion of the state visit of President Chatami in Berlin, given to the broadsheet serious national daily “SZ” / “Süddeutsche Zeitung” – respected for its reporting of international affairs - 13th July, 2000 under the headline]

»WE HAVE TO SUPPORT THE REFORMERS IN TEHERAN«

»[…] The democratic reform process under President Chatami offers a great chance for human rights, democracy, peace and stability in a region which is also for us extremely dangerous. […]

He is supported by the broad majority of the Iranian nation and is facing adversaries who a determined to do anything [against him]. In Iran there is something like a diarchy [ = two power-centres are in rule]. But it would be a decisive mistake not to support the reformers. That is not only a matter of political reason but lies clearly in the interest of Germany. […]

Chatami and the majority of the population behind him do want democracy and thus an Iran that is making use of its potential of a civil society and is on this way to become anchor and mainstay of stability in a region which is lacking in anchors/mainstays of stability. [As to different views, critical of Chatami:] Anything else is wishful thinking. […]

We see a country in a time of awakening and change towards democratic reforms. It does not make any sense to call such a state a “risky state” in the sense of a “rogue state” [he criticizes here the hardline Western/American view at that time]. […]

When viewing the archipelago of crises of the coming decades, […] Iran is coming more and more to the fore as a potential factor of stability. […]

Chatami is clearly organizing policies of opening up. […] I was favourably taken aback and surprised about the potential of Iran as civil society. […] Iran is probably the country offering the greatest/most excellent opportunities towards a civil society in that region.

[…] Cultural exchange with Iran is becoming more and more relevant also in view of democratic basic values, the rule of law – values which are not tied to western culture, but are universally compatible principles. […] «

[…] = omissions by the undersigned

[xyz] = annotations by the undersigned

translated by the undersigned

Source:
SZ, 13.07.2000 -
http://www.uni-kassel.de/fb5/frieden/regionen/Iran/fischer-interview.html

[Roe Lassie]

Scott

Your link to:
1300 GMT: An activist reports that journalist Sam Mahmoudi Sarabi has been released on bail after 44 days in detention, 30 of which were in solitary confinement.

Reopens this page again.

Thanks

[Scott Lucas]

Catherine,

Excellent find and analysis on Clinton's remarks. Clearly one faction of the US Government is pursuing this line. I too scratch my head....

S.

[AJ]

This guy warned us:

http://www.theiranfist.com/post/391168808/rap-battle-with-ahmadinejad

No lessons learned from Eminem in the rap battle with Ahmadinejad!

[Rev. Magdalen]

Professor Lucas, it is now officially well past "early February" by any stretch of the imagination, and yet the massive joint military exercises between IRGC Navy and Artesh Ground Forces that were announced the first week of January, scheduled for "early" the "next month" [either Persian or Gregorian was never quite clear, but either way, long past] never took place.

The announcement was widely covered and publicized both in Iran and the West:
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=211172
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126254286128213977.html

And yet here it is, well past the time these things were supposed to take place, and nothing has happened. Isn't it quite expensive to plan a major military exercise and lay in supplies and plan out the logistics and then NOT do it? Isn't that really very odd for a regime that loves to have military exercises and frequently uses them to bolster up their self-image?

It's one thing to take de-facto martial law control of a city and intimidate defenseless civilians with batons, but it's another thing altogether to control Artesh and IRGC Navy. We saw the plainclothes Basiji and "Sandis crowd" display their loyalty on 22 Bahman, but where is the grand display from these armed forces? KhamCo certainly had hoped there would be one, perhaps even intending it to be the "punch in the mouth" they had bragged about. Did something go wrong? Could the Greens have more reason for optimism than any Western pundits imagine? Or was it all just another example of Regime incompetence, some SNAFU that fouled up the whole operation?

I honestly believe that the reason this is not a major story in the mainstream news is not because they know something we don't, like that the regime secretly did the exercises but was too modest to brag about it, or that there was a good reason (earthquakes maybe?) to postpone them.

I think this is not a major story in the mainstream news simply because it is very difficult for them to remember something that happened as long ago as SIX WHOLE WEEKS, when the announcement was made. It's possible the IRI regime may have worked out exactly how to time announcements to the Western media such that if they later decide not to do what they announced, they can count on no one remembering or noticing. Until now! When brave and intrepid Professor Lucas gets on the case and figures out what happened! ;-)

[Scott Lucas]

Rev,

Not sure I've ever been brave or intrepid, but you have got me interested --- I missed this and it does seem that the guns that didn't fire may be a subject to note.

S.

[ange paris]

Explaination of " rigged" pro-governmental demonstration on 22 Bahman from Peykeiran :

http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=13501

[Barry]

@Anthony

The concept of "mutually assured destruction" (MAD) is founded on an assumption that both sides are rational. I am not sure that the Iranian Regime, now or since inception in 1979, is rational. It is a system based on a religious ideology - something which has never led to much rationality in the long history of mankind.

But your opinion in this matter and thoughts on it are of course reasonable, logical and legitimate. However- when we develop an opinion on something, we should always ask ourselves, what will be the outcome/cost/benefit to me if I am correct and what will it be if I am wrong. I don't like the outcome/cost of this if your opinion is wrong.

Barry

[Rev. Magdalen]

Prof Lucas, I hope you can find out what happened. You may not see yourself as brave, but I'm sure you haunt the dreams of the Leveretts at night! You're definitely a thorn in the side of the glib and shortsighted, worldwide!

[Catherine]

RE Scott Lucas says:
16 February 2010 at 15:21
Catherine,
Excellent find and analysis on Clinton’s remarks. Clearly one faction of the US Government is pursuing this line. I too scratch my head….

Scott,
I think the explanation is simple. Obama must have had an agreement with Clinton that if after a year his approach (as expressed and argued over during the presidential campaign) to Iran didn't work, she could trot out hers (also from the campaign). And indeed, the Obama administration's Iran policy is now starting to look a lot like candidate Clinton's. Her skepticism toward engagement with Iran is more than evident in this new much more confrontational approach that she has rolled out with great gusto over the last 3 days on her Persian Gulf tour.