The Latest from Iran (27 April): An Opposition Wave?

1840 GMT: The Uranium Squeeze. Time magazine notices a key point that we've mentioned for some time, "Iran's need to find fresh supplies of raw uranium supplies is increasingly urgent, according to some reports."

1830 GMT: The Oil Squeeze (cont.). Following the announcement by major French firm Total that it will pull out of Iran  if US sanctions proceed and the defiant stance of Iranian officials that absolutely nothing was wrong with energy supplies --- see 0540 and 1050 GMT), Italian company Eni says it is "working on handing over the operatorship of the Iranian Darquain oil field to local partners".

NEW Iran’s Detained Journalists: EA’s (Vicarious) Confrontation with Foreign Minister Mottaki
NEW Latest Iran Video: Mousavi & Karroubi Meet (26 April)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi “We Will Make The Nation Victorious”
Iran: The Mousavi 4-Point Message “Who Defends the Islamic Republic?"
Iran Exclusive: A Birthday Message to Detained Journalist Baghi from His Daughter
The Latest from Iran (26 April): Points of View

1700 GMT: Impact. We've known for days that opposition figures have been building up their challenge to the Government, but it's today, with the revelation of the meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi on Monday, that you know the wave has hit.


For the first time in weeks, the non-Iranian mainstream media is taking notice of the opposition as more than a post-11 February blip. Reuters headlines, "Iran opposition urges vote anniversary rally"; CNN, who established an "Iran Desk" for the 22 Bahman (11 February) demonstration and soon let it lapse, follows suit: "Iranian opposition candidates call for renewed protests".

1125 GMT: No Further Comment Necessary. From Press TV: "Deputy Foreign Minister Hassan Qashqavi said that it is 'ridiculous' to place limitations on the peaceful use of nuclear energy by making 'unfounded' claims about human rights and freedom of women."

1050 GMT: All is Well  Update. Despite the accumulating news of a possible oil squeeze on Tehran with foreign producers withdrawing imports, the Government line is No Problem:

Iran says its strategic gasoline reserves have climbed by a billion liters, reiterating that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never materialize.

"Iran is not worried about (possible) gasoline sanctions," Deputy Oil Minister Noureddin Shahnazi-Zadeh told Iran's Mehr News Agency on Tuesday, adding that sanctions on gasoline sales to Iran will never occur as there is no possibility of imposing such sanctions under current conditions.

1045 GMT: We have posted a short video from Monday's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, in which the two agreed to call a demonstration for 12 June, the anniversary of the election.

We have also posted a feature of how EA's list of detained Iranian journalists may have made its way into an Austrian newspaper's interview of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.

0835 GMT: British Deportation. Last week, we reported on the British Government's plan to deport Bita Ghaedi, an Iranian woman who fled the country because of alleged abuse by her father and brother. Ghaedi was being returned to Tehran despite the likelihood that she would face punishment because of her participation in a rally protesting conflict over Iraq' s Camp Ashraf, home to many members of the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran.

Volcanic ash intervened to prevent Ghaedi's flight last week; however, her deportation has now been rescheduled for 5 May.

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Farid Taheri, a member of the Freedom Movement of Iran, has been sentenced to three years in prison.

0750 GMT: Labour Watch. A collection of Iranian unions have issued a joint 15-point statement for May Day, "strongly supporting the demands of teachers, nurses, and other working classes of society to end discrimination".

Member of Parliament Alireza Mahjoub has criticised the Government's failure to implement rises in pensions and the hidden discrimination against female workers.

0740 GMT: Women's Rights Corner. Member of Parliament Ali Motahari has harshly criticised the "feminist and anti-family" views of Faezeh Hashemi, the daughter of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Motahari said that Hashemi's critique of polygamy was misguided, as the prohibition of polygamy would lead to prostitution.

0715 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Amidst reports of the poor health of many detainees, reformist member of Parliament Mostafa Kavakebian has insisted that a Majlis commission investigate the prisons.

0710 GMT: A Successful Protest. The sit-in of female detainees at Evin Prison has forced authorities to establish the separation of men and women in the facility.

0700 GMT: Corruption Watch. Green Voice of Freedom has repeated the claim that the Supreme Leader has insisted the corruption case against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi must be dropped because of "sensitive issues of nezam (the Iranian system)".

0640 GMT: We Persist. The Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a protest against the recommendation of Parliament's Article 10 Commission that the reformist party be suspended. The IIPF declares that it will continue its activities.

The protest is signed by Mohsen Safai-Farahani, who was recently handed a six-year prison sentence.

0630 GMT: More Challenges. From the conservative side, leading member of Parliament Ahmad Tavakoli has said that the number and impudence of corrupt high-level officials have risen. He insisted that these officials must be confronted, no matter where and who they serve.

And reformist Ahmad Shirzad has asserted that the opposition movement has been bolstered by the addition of "dissatisfied hardliners".

0540 GMT: Monday was notable for the rush of opposition challenges to the Government. There was Mehdi Karroubi on a law-abiding, Constitution-promoting resistance that would bring victory to Iran, Mir Hossein Mousavi's "Who Defends the Islamic Republic?",  and Zahra Rahnavard calling for the release of detained workers and teachers.

Of course, the important leap will be from statement to action. Yet it is striking this moment to compare the renewed calls for justice and freedom with the Government's rhetorical flourishes.

There was President Ahmadinejad again looking outside Iran with his promotion of the "satanic tools" of the United Nations and the US. There was Foreign Minister Mottaki, confronted with a list of more than 100 detained journalists and political analysts, replying brusquely, "Stick to the nuclear issue."

And there were apparent flights of desperation. As the chief executive of the French oil company Total was announcing that it would pull out of Iran if US sanctions proceeded, the deputy head of Iran's oil industry, Hojatollah Ghanimi-Fard, proclamed, "Iran has negotiated development projects with several foreign oil companies, including French concerns."

Ghanimi-Fard's optimism contrasted sharply with a statement from the Revolutionary Guard that it was prepared to replace Total and Royal Dutch Shell in oil and natural gas projects. Ali Vakili, the managing director of the Pars Oil and Gas Company, said a one-week ultimatum had been given to Shell and Spanish company Repsol, “We will not delay the development of South Pars phases waiting for foreign companies.”

Comments

[Barry]

What has happened to EA??

Barry

[Scott Lucas]

Test comment....

[Scott Lucas]

Test comment....

[Mike Dunn]

Sorry about the invisible comments everyone. I've been trying out Disqus as an improved comments system (more about that later in the week) but while dealing with a completely separate problem yesterday evening I accidentally activated Disqus without having set it up to work properly.

[Bill]

Mike,

I sent a general note to you guys on this but I thought it would be best to air it here as well. My simply question is what has happened to all our posters from Iran? For the life of me I can't remember one posting form inside Iran in months except for a few regime supporters. I also mention it because I noticed a prolific poster on AL Jazeera that goes by the name Niloufar does not appear to be the same person. I was able to notice it because her english all of sudden became awful, went from a Green supporter to one who now believes the election was legit and that foreign powers are behind the unrest(this last one was ironic because she was right after the election blasting the US left for suggesting the US was behind it.)

Any thoughts on this and might this make an interesting topic to pursue?

Thx
Bill

[Arshama]

Mike,

Thank you for constantly maintaining and improving EA :-)
I have already registered for Disqus and found it very appealing.
Looking forward for more to come...

Arshama

[Megan]

[Edited by moderator]

Bill,

I touched on this topic in a post-I do not remember the date. Like you I was curious why we had not heard from Hossein, Whereismyvote, Alborz, Morad, just to name a few, for a long time. Their disappearance from this blog is not a good sign and I worry about their faiths.

Inside Iran is anything but quiet but we also do not see any video coming out of Iran. Disappearance of Greens who are inside Iran from this and other blogs, video drought, appearance of crop of regime supporters on blogs and radio stations operating outside Iran, appearance of those like M. Ali on this blog and Nilofar on Aljazeera blog who claim they were Green but had a rude awakening all lead to one conclusion; Islamic Republic grip on communications is far stronger and the crackdown is far more massive than we know.

Let’s examine this. What should we expect a repressive regime like Islamic Republic do if it suddenly finds its atrocities, corruption, repression, fraud are ll exposed on the world stage? Should we not expect it to stop the leak? What were the sources of those leaks? Were they not people who used Tweet, Face book, blogs, YouTube videos, e-mail, cell phone, etc?

Islamic Republic realizes that it cannot put the genie back in the bottle but it can at least try to tell the world everything is fine back at the ranch. The way to do that is to terrorize people and their families who may try to share news with the rest of the world. We all know too well what those terror tactics are by now. We, therefore, should not be surprised if people in Iran who posted comments on EA are no longer showing up. I am also not surprised that the Niloufar has been substituted by an imposter who claims she had had a rude awakening. A rude awakening was also the story of M. Ali on this blog. Bill, rest assured the Niloufar who is posting on Al Jazeera blog now is not the person who posted comments before. The one posting today is using the name Niloufar to make her nonsense more believable.

The IR Information Ministry (spying agency) folks are not smart enough to realize something like change in English proficiency is a giveaway. They underestimate the Internet reach otherwise they would give their foot soldiers, Niloufar and M. Ali and others, different and more believable story lines –anything but that they were both Green and turned into a crappy Yellow ( or whatever) because Green had a foreign hue.

The Movement we have come to know as “Green Movement” was not born in June 2009. Iranian revolt against Islamic Republic started in 1979 when women were stripped of their civil liberties. Stories of fraudulent election, arrest, torture, execution of dissidents, raid on university campuses, massacre at university dormitories, shut down of newspapers , etc have been going on for 31 years. The difference was this time IR was not able to hide its dirty little secret thanks to advancement in communications technologies and brave men and women in Iran who fully utilized it. It, therefore, will not be implausible for IR to target and eliminate people who could through Internet expose IR. I have heard stories of the 80’s; stories of people who vanished without a trace, stories of people who lived in constant fear that they could be next.

I believe Iran and suffering of Iranians have been out of the world view and behind the Iron curtain, like the former USSR, for much too long. That is why June 2009 election and its aftermat have been difficult for some non-Iranians to grasp. I believe that is why people like “Eric...Brill” think 2009 election was an anomaly and tries to micro analyze it. For Iranians 2009 fraudulent election was the re-run of the same old movie. The difference was this time Iranians did not take it as another day in the office.

Sometimes I feel if we transplant Einstein brain in skull of people like Eric...Brill they still will not be able to comprehend that 2009 fraudulent election was the same as those that preceded it. The only difference in 2009 was that voters who decided to let the world know that they were not taking that one sitting down. Eric...Brill views IR 2009 election as US Florida 2000 and criticizes opposition for not demanding recount like Al Gore and G W Bush. He does not understand that IR beat Omid Reza Syafi, a blogger; to death (Omid Reza sister reported that last Sunday in an interview on VOA. She categorically denied IR claim that Omid Reza had committed suicide by overdosing on prescription medications. She showed photos of her brother’s dead body and you could see signs of blows to the head). Readers who post comments on blogs are not safe and Eric...Brill criticizes opposition candidates for not demanding to examine form 22s. It blows my mind how some people cannot see beyond their cocoons and do not understand that Fraud, lie, stupidly, corruption, and repression are in Islamic Republic DNA. And DNA cannot be changed.

[Barry]

Megan

Unfortunately the fear of death is strong in people - in spite of their so-called religious convictions (or perhaps because of them??)

During WW2, the Jews went obediently and quietly to the gas chambers - in North Korea and Zimbabwe today, people starve but do not revolt.

If the people of those two countries do not rise up, can you expect the people of Iran to do so? The IRI DNA that you describe will eventually die out (natural selection and evolution, survival of the fittest) -- but I do not know when that will be. At least not while fear is the prevailing emotion.

Barry

[Catherine]

Megan,
RE "or Iranians 2009 fraudulent election was the re-run of the same old movie. The difference was this time Iranians did not take it as another day in the office."

This was made very clear to me in Iran during the last weeks before the election. People assumed there would be some irregularities, some form of cheating, because this has always been the case in elections of all kinds, they said. That explains why common topics of conversation were tips on how to foil these attempts - like the example I mentioned in the 22 April thread about voters advising each other to bring their own pens to the voting booth. What astounded everyone was the sheer audacity, size and scope of the "irregularities" - NOT that they occured, which was a foregone conclusion.

[Bill]

Megan,

Thank you for your thought provoking reply. As we both noted the pro reform posters form Iran have all but vanished from this site. Instead we of course only get people from Iran who claim they are sitting on the fence but when pressed air pro regime positions. I noticed this awhile back and it was why several weeks ago I decided to go back to Al Jazeera and check on Niloufar. I found Niloufar but not the Niloufar I knew.

Niloufar was always a rational, centrist, and compasionate poster on AJ. Her views were wide ranging including ridicule for the US, Iran, and even the state of Islam in Iran. She literally could be found on almost all subject matters posting her thoughtful opinions even once explaining to me she chose the name Niloufar because it meant water lilly. Right after the election she posted a scathing denunciation of too left US ideologues who said the unrest was the result of US meddling again. She did not attack but in her own witty way clearly debunked the left's hypothesis that it was the US behind it all. Her simple argument was that the left was caught in a time warp and because so they could not see the unrest was entirely homegrown. Well her tune changed quite dramatically.

When I went back I went through all the blogs topics she usually posted on but could only find her on blogs about Israel and Iran(gee now why is that.) When I read all of her posts her english was absolutely awful when it used to be flawless, she attacked people which she never did, she started using terms like "sweety" which she never did, and most glaring was her stance had done a 180 degree turn. She now says Ahmadinejad won the election and the West is trying to destabalize Iran. She said all this despite the fact she earlier was beside herself with the death, rapes, and arrests. Well I smelled a rat and called her on it. The only response was "I am not going to answer this" after first appealing to me to just believe her--again with broken english. Wow she must have taken me for an idiot.

What was neat about the whole afair is the fact Al Jazeera screens every post and if its off topic they almost never post it--yet my post made it through along with others noting it. So maybe AJ is now going back and doing some searching themselves to see if my claim is true. I'm sure AJ has noted the real possibility of this and realizes they would be a prime target of this because they are such a big news agency in the Middle East. All in all while some on AJ will believe me and others will not it is now known this is a distinct possibility. Sadly I have no way to prove it other than what was posted. Doubly sad is I have no idea of what happened to real Niloufar!!!

Now how could this happen. It can happen simply because Iran is one of only a few nations to employ deep packet inspection censoring. While some debated if Nokia sold this to them it was later proven out in fact they did aquire but no one is sure how or willing to admit it. In a nut shell when turned on full bore like Iran is doing it slows down the Internet a great deal(as we have noted in Iran), allows the regime to monitor all traffic(especially easy since Internet traffic in and out of Iran goes through only one source), makes it possible to co op user Id's and the message itself, can make proactive changes to the message itself based on key word identification, and is extremelly useful in providing a digital trail to find the source of messages. The reason we did not see this at the begining was because Iran had not implemented it which now they have. Thus I deduce they have been able to more effectively monitor traffic, co op ID's, find people, and block material they don't want sent out. Its not full proof and that is why they are now clamping down on shareware being distributed in Iran allowing people to block IP address notification(Scott noted this in a recent post even.) It should also be noted the IRGC now owns the largest telecom in Iran--gee now why would they have done that???--duh they now cement their control of highway of information in Iran. For some background on Deep Packet Inspection here is a wiki source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_packet_inspection.

Thx
Bill

[Bill]

Megan,

On Eric Brill I agree with your sentiments. What I would add is I think Eric is making the mistake of viewing this election to much from a Western perspective. Ironically this is a argument I have had with people who often try to view the Islamic world from their own socio/political/religious background oblivious to the fact its putting in a set of conditions that are in direct conflict with makeup of the Islamic world and its value system. Eric is making this same mistake tyring to objectively view the Iranian election without taking into context the whole picutre. For him to trully understand the dynamics and the plausible scenario the regime did steal the election he needs to recognize the fact elections in Iran are in fact very well orchestrated selections. If he had done this it would become apparent trying to objectively evaluate the election based on western norms is a lost cause. To fully evaluate the election results he needs to factor in the context before, during, and after the election. If he had done so it becomes quite apparent the elecetion was fixed. However, I am still perplexed as to why he ignores the regimes actions after the election as if they don't matter. Any idiot knows the winning party does not need to imprison 18,000, kill hundereds, rape, purge universities, intimidate, imprison more journalists than the whole free world combined, and manufacture rallies. Come on "A Ma Dinner Jacket"(paying homage to Ahmadinejad's affection for members only jackets) cannot even draw crowds at his speechs and he won with 62% of the vote!!!! This guy should be a demigod in Iran yet he must travel everywhere with police in riot gear!!! Duh!!!! :)

Thx
Bill

[gunni]

Megan & Bill

I think you know ist already - if not please have look to this link.
http://www.haystacknetwork.com/faq/

regards gunni

[Bill]

Gunni,

Thank you that was exactly what I was referencing.

Thx
Bill

[Megan]

Scott, Mike,

Re: post 11:25, April 29

Please help me out here. Is the word "Clueless" an offensive word in Britain? Here in the U.S. "Clueless” is the middle name for people who claim authority on a topic when they know zilch.

I feel like I am in Iran and will be arrested any minutes for calling Ahmadi Clueless! Do I need to start preparing my confession?!!

[Scott Lucas]

Megan,

Yes, "clueless" means the same in Britain as in US.

Re that confession: if you need a lawyer, let us know....

S.

[Arshama]

Megan and Bill,

Your speculations about hijacking Niloufar's identity are not so far off, as RAHANA reported yesterday that the Teacher's Union website was filtered and hacked by "unknown circles" (marakeze nashenas), just to reappear with articles in support of the "Communist Worker's Party" and the MEK, bot in exile: http://www.rhairan.biz/archives/11087
Obviously an attempt to link the union to foreign "spies" in order to crack it down.

As to the vanished contributors from Iran, I believe they are organising for the next round of protests, or expanding their networks in the country. Meanwhile there exist much more websites, reporting regularly on HR violations, worker's issues and other subjects, i.e. the Green movement has developed organised structures for passing on the news.

Arshama

[Megan]

Scott,

As always thank you; I know you have our backs. Please, any lawyer except Clueless B.

I think CB is unavialble anyway; he is busy auditioning for future clients with initials AN and SL. That makes me happy indeed- with Clueless B as their defense attorney, they need to attach their Last Will and Testaments to their confession documents.

[Megan]

Gunni,

Thanks.

[Bill]

Arshama,

Thanks for the reference supporting our points. It was an interesting read even though I had to deal with google translate again.

Thx
Bill