The Latest from Iran (4 August): A Day Between Protests

NEW Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader’s Warning to Ahmadinejad
NEW Iran’s American Detainee: The Case of Kian Tajbakhsh
Iran Video: The Khamenei-Ahmadinejad “Non-Kiss” (3 August)
Iran Video: The Abtahi “Confession”, Roohul Amini, and Tehran Trial (2-3 August)
The Latest from Iran (3 August): Trials and Inaugurations

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2000 GMT: Potentially serious development: Mir Hamid Hassanzadeh the person in charge of Ghalamnews during the elections has been arrested and his computer confiscated.

1425 GMT: The Times of London reports on the controversy yesterday sparked by Britain sending its second most senior diplomat in Tehran to yesterday's endorcement ceremony. The attendance of Patrick Davies, the British Embassy’s deputy head of mission, was criticised by opposition politicians. The Foreign Office defended its decision, arguing that it had to keep talking to the regime about its nuclear programme, human rights and other pressing issues, and that “to do this, communication channels have to be open”.

1300 GMT: Just in from our correspondent, Mani. Ayatollah Mohaghegh-Damad ( professor of Islamic law and philosophy) in an open letter to Shahroudi has slammed the legality of the recent televised trials and the performance of the judiciary. Ayatollah Damad characterized these televised trials as "an infamous blot on Islamic Jurisprudence".

1245 GMT: Tangential Editorial of the Day. Initially I thought The Washington Post meant well in its comment on the Iran situation, even if it immediately resorted to Cold War language: "Borrowing a page from Stalin's Russia, Iran's increasingly wobbly regime has embarked on a contemptible spectacle of show trials."

By the end of the editorial, however, I realised the Post didn't care that much about those in the streets and on trial: "These are dangerous days in Tehran, which only underscores the dilemma the Obama administration faces as it clings to a strategy of engaging Iran to contain its nuclear ambitions: Who is there to talk to?"

Leave aside for the moment that the question "who to talk to?" is almost abstract, given the current internal situation (as we noted yesterday). How many Iranians consider Iran's "nuclear ambitions" their pressing priority? And, if the answer is "not many at all", doesn't the Post's Cold War rhetoric say more about a US-centric agenda than any concern with freedoms and rights?

1215 GMT: Rabble-Rousing Headline of the Day. From Bloomberg.com: "Pentagon, Eyeing Iran, Wants To Rush 30,000-Pound Bomb Program".

Afternoon Update (1200 GMT) : Ebrahim Yazdi, former Foreign Minister and Secretary General of the Freedom Movement, has warned that Iran is on its way to becoming like the former Soviet Union: "the strongest totalitarian regime with very efficient but corrupt secret police".

Speaing to the Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat, Dr Yazdi expressed his fears for the fate of the 30-year-old revolution: "The Soviet Union collapsed because the leaders move to reform the system and respond to people's demands came late, and I believe that Iran is going down the same road." Dr Yazdi added:

The difference is that Iran is not an empire to disintegrate into republics, and the collapse of the Soviet Union marked the end of the Marxist ideology. But unlike Marxism, Islam will not disappear;
it is part of our identity and culture and I am not worried about Islam. Islam has God to protect it; but I am worried about the republic and democracy in my country.

Morning Update (0630 GMT): We have a special feature on the American academic Kian Tajbakhsh, detained now for almost a month in the post-election crisis, but The New York Times updates this morning on the three American hikers who have fallen foul of Iran's authorities:

The identities of the three young Americans arrested by Iran last week while hiking near the country’s border with Iraq were confirmed Monday by Kurdish officials, who said they were planning to meet for a second time with their Iranian counterparts to discuss the case.

Swiss diplomats representing American interests in Iran, meanwhile, were trying to confirm the detentions with the Iranian Foreign Ministry and were seeking consular access to the detainees.

The newspaper Etemade Melli, associated with Mehdi Karroubi) has been warned by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, "Due to printing untruths and reports that place serious doubts on the legality of the 10th presidential election...the Ministry has given the newspaper a written warning." Those in charge of the newspaper are admonished to "remember to obey legal frameworks" and consider "what may or may not be to the advantage of the country and establishment" when they prepare their articles.

The deputy prosecutor of Tehran says that, when trials of almost 100 defendants resume after the Presidential inauguration, there will be legal representation: "On Thursday each of the accused will get an individual indictment.... and therefore they can introduce their attorneys to the court."

Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader's Warning to Ahmadinejad

The Latest from Iran (4 August): A Day Between Protests
Iran’s American Detainee: The Case of Kian Tajbakhsh

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For all the agonised analysis of the body language between the Supreme Leader and the President yesterday --- were they still friends? was there a bit of tension still about? when is a kiss not a kiss? --- all it would have taken to get a meaningful answer was this glance at Press TV English's website, "In Leader approval, Ahmadinejad warned over critics":

As certain political figures join opposition in rejecting the disputed election results, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution strongly backs the president for a second term, but urges him to heed the views of his “critics.”

In a step leading up to his inauguration in Parliament, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei on Monday threw his weight behind President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Monday, describing him as "courageous, astute and hardworking."

The Leader added that his endorsement and the people's vote remains in place only until President Ahmadinejad stays "on the right path."

The entire article is a series of slaps to the President. "The endorsement decrees are normally read by the previous president -- even for the second term of the new president in office," but Mohammad Khatami was absent, and so were Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and "powerful cleric and official" Hashemi Rafsanjani. "There were also no representatives present from the family of the founder of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini."
The story up to yesterday is presented in neutral, even favourable, terms for the opposition:

The development against a backdrop of political trials comes as Ahmadinejad's much-disputed re-election in June was met with an outpouring of anger demonstrated in mass protests across the country, with demonstrators dubbing the poll as rigged.

At least 30 people were killed and thousands, including prominent Reformists and journalists, were rounded up in the course of the protests staged by supporters of the opposition who dismiss the official election result as "fraudulent" and call for its annulment.

With leading opposition figures Mousavi, Khatami and Karroubi refusing to acknowledge Ahmadinejad's presidency, the incumbent's re-election provoked bickering in the country's political circles.

Even more importantly, Rafsanjani gets three paragraphs of supportive coverage, including his statement, "Doubt has been created. There are two currents; one has no doubt and is moving ahead. And the other is a large portion of the wise people who say they have doubts. We need to take action to remove this doubt."

The conclusion? Well, Press TV offers its own body-language photograph, which we've reprinted, for the article and notes, "Ayatollah Khamenei...insisted that the views of the critics 'should be given much reflection'."

Today Ahmadinejad shouldn't worry about kissing the Leader's shoulders. It's time to be looking over both of his own.

Iran's American Detainee: The Case of Kian Tajbakhsh

At 9 p.m. on 9 July, Iranian security forces arrested Kian Tajbakhsh, the only American detained in connection with Iran's post-election the crisis, in front of his wife and young daughter at their home in Tehran. His arrest was first announced on 13 July on state-sponsored Press TV English, which alleged that he was cooperating with Hossein Rassam, the head of the security and political division of the British Embassy in Tehran, to foment post-election turmoil. Rassam has since been released on bail, but Tajbakhsh continues to be detained in an unknown
location.

Then, on Saturday, Tajbakhsh appeared in a press conference after the Tehran trial of almost 100 defendants (there is no indication that Tajbakhsh was amongst the defendants). Family and friends of Tajbakhsh had previously warned in a public declaration that they feared he was being held in an attempt by the Iranian authorities to obtain forced statements from him, noting that “such statements are repeatedly extracted under conditions of torture for the sole purpose of staging televised show trials”. They are distressed by photos of Tajbakhsh published by the Iranian official agency Fars News, which indicate that he is under intense strain.

Tajbakhsh, who received his Ph.D. from Columbia University, is a social scientist and urban planner affiliated with the New School in New York. He has always been noted as an academic who has sought political neutrality in an effort to bridge cultural divides. However, Iranian state television is now pointing to his American citizenship to blame foreign powers, especially the US and Britain, for interference in its internal affairs and post-election disturbances.

Those seeking more information on the case can find it at the "Free Kian '09" website.

The Latest from Iran (3 August): Trials and Inaugurations

Iran Video: The Khamenei-Ahmadinejad “Non-Kiss” (3 August)
NEW Iran Analysis: Naming a President
Trials in Iran: The Latest from Mousavi
NEW Iran Video: The Abtahi “Confession”, Roohul Amini, and Tehran Trial (2 August)
The Latest from Iran (2 August): Raising the Stakes

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2115 GMT: A Personal Note "#CNNFail". I am watching, open-mouthed, as CNN milks the Khomeini-Ahmadinejad "non-kiss" for 10 minutes of blather, with Reza Sayah, his producer,and the happy, chatty, vacuous Michael Holmes chuntering on about how they disagreed about the meaning of the physical interaction: Did Khameini block Mahmoud's embrace? Did Mahmoud check the Supreme Loyalty because he wanted to show sufficient loyalty? It's all ho-ho, ha-ha at the end of their proclaimed 15-hour day.

Here's a friendly suggestion to all the CNN folks. If you spent as much time carefully evaluating political sources over the last two weeks, including the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad tensions, or if you gave a little thought to the politics beyond the single image of the Supreme Leader and the President, including today's demonstrations and the reactions to Saturday's trial, you wouldn't have to spend 600 seconds saying nothing of consequence beyond flagrant self-promotion.

2040 GMT: Another Effort for Conciliation. According to the Iranian Labor News Agency, Maryam Behrouzi, the head of the society of Zeynab, a conservative women's group has stated, "Both principalist and reformist factions have had faults and irregularities and must attempt to cleanse themselves so that the establishment regains its reputation and regains the trust of the people." At the same time, Behrouzi said, "In these [televised] confessions [of reformists] wno mention has been made of  'velvet revolution'....The Supreme Leader has called the two factions of principalist and reformist to be to wings of the same system and accusing one fraction of 'soft deposition' will cause a huge damage to the establishment....If some individuals of a fraction make a mistake that mistake should not be used to indict a whole faction."

2030 GMT: A Very Important Correction. Mehdi Karroubi has denied the report of Fars News alleging that he participated in a demonstration between Vali-e Asr Square and Vanak Square as "an absolute falsehood". Karroubi says, "At the alleged time [I] was participating in the memorial service of the filmmaker Seifollah Daad at the Nour Mosque. This mosque is located between Vali-e Asr and Vanak; however, [I] did not get out of [my] car and did not address the people."

Our correspondent Mani analyses:

Karroubi is not back tracking. The account is from Etemade Melli, Karroubi's official site, and therefore should be considered true. I think that the reason why Karroubi is making this statement is because Fars News had a mendacious reason for reporting Karroubi's presence. The number of demonstrators today was relatively small so  Fars News is implying that Karroubi has participated in a demonstration in which support for him and the reform movement is waning.

Karroubi's statement is reinforcing the fact that he did not call for this demonstration, as opposed to last Thursday in which he had effectively called for protest and got sizable popular participation in one of the least accessible locations in Tehran.

1710 GMT: Confusion of reports over how big protests are and the extent of clashes with security forces. We will be back later with a late-night update to try to set out definitive information.

1610 GMT: Non-Non-Non-Story of the Day. The New York Times wastes a lot of newsprint on "U.S. Weighs Iran Sanctions if Talks Are Rejected". The story claims that National Security Advisor James Jones floated the idea, while in Israel, of "cutting off [Iran's] imports of gasoline and other refined oil products...if it fails to respond to President Obama’s offer to negotiate on its nuclear program".

This is the equivalent of fantasy politics, since the prospect of any US-Iran talks on any issue of substance is suspended. In case The New York Times hasn't paid attention, the Government in Tehran lacks legitimacy, amongst many of its own people and many in the international community. So until Mahmoud Ahmadinejad becomes more than a President in name, there can be no discussions of significance.

The real story, if reporter David Sanger had cared to notice, is that the Obama Administration has used this suspension to get Free Credit, posing as tough guy before both Israel and the US Congress. That is an approach without cost until someone actually suggests, with the passage of time and the (probable) continuing internal tension in Iran, that talk of sanctions be replaced by action.

1600 GMT: Steady stream of reports of protests across Tehran, including Vanak Square and Fatemeh Square as well as Vali-e Asr Square.

CNN now reporting "thousands" in Vali-e Asr and numbers growing. (CNN has also just reported as "Just In" that Mehdi Karroubi was amongst protestors, 35 minutes after we posted the information.)

1535 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, interpreting a report from the Islamic Republic News Agency, says Tehran is under "quasi-military government" in with police based on all major city streets and in squares.

1525 GMT: Fars News that opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi (see 0700 GMT) was among demonstrators in Vali-e Asr Square this afternoon. reports

1500 GMT: More Mr President. Earlier we reported Ahmadinejad's threat to "hang [protesters] from the roof]". Another translation of the speech in Mashaad has the President saying, "[I will] stick their heads to the ceiling."

Mahmoud may want to be a bit careful, however, as his supporters are denying any such sticking or banging of heads is going on. From an interview with pro-Ahmadinejad member of Parliament Bizhan Novabeh:

Reporter: Mr. Nobaveh, what are you doing for the detained? Did you know the son of Ruholamini? Are you looking into why he was killed during his detention?

Nobaveh: Who is saying this? Now it’s possible he hit his head against the floor.

Reporter: His corpse says something different.

Nobaveh: Why are you speaking nonsense? We have to ask the government to look into this.

Reporter: It’s possible that your investigations will take time and every moment that passes lowers [the importance of] this incident.

Nobaveh: This talk is a crime. This talk, in any case, is subject to investigation.

Reporter: I asked one simple question. Regarding the son of Ruholamini, are you of the belief that there should be an investigation?

Nobaveh: Don’t 27 people a day die in road accidents?

Reporter: Road deaths are different than … deaths … .

Nobaveh: What’s the difference? In any case we haven’t heard of any deaths.

1430 GMT: CNN reports, from sources, an estimated 1000 protesters marching on Val-e Asr. Horns are honking, "V for Victory" signs are being flashed, and there are chants of "God is Great".

1100 GMT: Some reports suggest that during the inauguration ceremony, Ahmadinejad tried to kiss the Supreme Leader's hand but was rebuffed. Another break in protocol:  for the first time the decree was read by the head of the leadership office (traditionally this was done by the son of Ayatollah Khomeini, or later former presidents).

1050 GMT: Facinating photo comparison between the 2005 and 2009 inauguration.



0735 GMT: The Supreme Leader has now endorsed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President. There is no indication of any statement beyond the formal announcement.

0715 GMT: You Have to Hand It to Mahmoud. Ahmadinejad may be in trouble (in our opinion, emasculated as a leader), but he's as brazen as ever. In his recent trip to Mashaad, avoiding the "4oth Day" ceremonies in Tehran,  he told "professors who are members of the basij": "Let the inauguration ceremonies end; afterward we will grab [our opponents] over the collar and hang them from the roof."

0700 GMT: Saham News, the official website of Mehdi Karroubi, has published his response to the Tehran trials. Karroubi concludes that the "weak and ridiculous indictment [was] prepared with such alacrity and haste against respected political figures...partly due to the time crunch of the presidential inauguration and partly because [the Government] feels that it must respond to to the events that accompanied the recent memorial ceremonies."

Karroubi is proposing a political response, with representatives from the Karroubi, Mousavi, Rezaei and Ahmadinejad stating their positions regarding the existence or non-existence of election fraud in front of the cameras of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting.

Karroubi, while reassuring, "I have always been loyal to Imam [Khomeini] and the establishment", asks, "How credibile are these elections, especially under the current conditions in which the country is in an abnormal condition and mass arrests and killings have taken place?" He adds:

When people witness those being treated extremely roughly [by the Revolutionary Guard and Basij] and are being told that the Revolutionary Guard and Basij are innocent and the [demonstrators] are riff-raff; in a society in which student dormitories are attacked and people have witnessed the attack and an official statement says we are not sure who ordered the suppression; in a society that the body of a beloved family member is returned to their family and the family is told that we have no idea who killed your child ---- how can you assume that the people will place any stock in a process that trots out individuals in prison clothes in order that these prisoners assert that the presidential election was free of fraud?....

These actions not only have no positice effect [on society] but in fact cause the establishment to lose its reputation and is a blot on the fame of the Islamic Republic.

0655 GMT: Disrupting the Disruption? Mowj-e-Sabz reports Irancell Company last night sent a text message to its subscribers that the network will experience problems in the next 72 hours, the first time that it has put out advance notification. Coincidentally, Ahmadinejad's inauguration occurs 48 hours from now.

Latest Iran Video: Khamenei-Ahmadinejad "Non-Kiss" and Tehran Protests (3 August)

The Latest from Iran (3 August): Trials and Inaugurations

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The Supreme Leader's Endorsement of Ahmadinejad - Embrace or Distance?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDoSiWxu80k[/youtube]

Demonstrations in Tehran: "Death to the Dictator"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6YTscQv5eo&feature=channel[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ob9_0S_sWtc[/youtube]


Vanak Square, Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D7gKEtFqK2Q&feature=channel[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKaOjcZxSC0&feature=channel[/youtube]

Nighttime Protest, Tehran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL_IiAJrVXY&feature=channel[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhA3Un4bkxs&feature=autoshare_twitter[/youtube]

CNN on the Khamenei-Ahmadinejad "Non-Kiss"

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48lc_TQcb_8[/youtube]