Iran Analysis: Fall of the Islamic Republic, Pros and Cons (Mohammadi)

Majid Mohammadi writes for Gozaar:

The Islamic regime in Iran is now on a path to demise and it is time to discuss the arguments for and against its survival. Every observer of Iran’s political developments will consider the advantages and disadvantages of this demise.

There have been some letters (Ezzatullah Sahabi) and statements (Mir Hussein Mousavi) describing the developments of the Green Movement and criticising its speed, but they do not offer any definition of moving fast or slow while complaining about the pace of activists’ actions. This requires discussions on the necessity or the lack of necessity to overthrow the Islamic regime, including the background and consequences.

Most of the people who are against the existing government and do not talk about its demise use this position to avoid radicalisation of the political situation and violence. They are aware of the levels of violence and bloodshed in social revolutions and are frightened of repeating the experience of 1979 when the situation went from bad to worse. Nevertheless, the continuation of this regime may lead to more bloodshed, compared to the price that protesters pay to overthrow it.

Those who believe in overthrowing the regime have very clear reasons: inefficiency, its black profile in violating human rights, its despotic character, a long experience of resistance to reform, multiple dead ends and contradictions in the legal system, and institutionalised discriminations and privileges.

Those who still want this regime to survive have one or more of four rationales: 1) they still see this regime as the only vehicle to enforce Islamic ordinances that they believe in; 2) they have embedded political and economic benefits in this regime; 3) they still hope for reform in this regime; and 4) due to the closed media sphere, they do not have enough information on the regimes’ brutalities and wrongdoings.

There is also a group who is against the existing rulers but does not want the regime to fall for several reasons that will be discussed below.

Why is it that some groups who had suffered under this regime do not want it to collapse but only ask for some gradual reforms? On the other hand, why do some groups insist on overthrowing the regime?....

Too Big to Fail

One possible argument [for those who oppose regime overthrow] is based on the enormous size of the Iranian government and the dependence of millions of people on this monster. They believe if this monster collapses, lots of other institutions and networks towards which this huge vulnerable population leans will be affected.

On the other hand, some people would argue that...we should let (the system) collapse because it leaves no room for efficiency and rationality. The state in Iran has grown in size to a level that every group who comes to power will soon be a bunch of dictators. To make the state small, there is no way other than overthrowing the regime: no political regime voluntarily shrinks its size to limit itself.

In addition, the demise of the Islamic regime will be very expensive for the Iranian people. It is not clear how this monster will react in its last days and how many individuals will be crushed under his feet or how many or which public institutions or resources will be ruined. But nobody can trust this scary phenomenon and every day left of its life means more damage. The Islamic regime has always been fighting against its own citizenry in all aspects of their life and one day people should win this battle....

However what happens after the collapse of the regime is not clear. Whether the government will shrink depends on the policies, agendas, and manifestos of the alternative forces and the mood of the society in that situation.

Collapse

Another possible argument against the toppling of the government is the equivalence of its demise with the disintegration of the whole country and decline of territorial integrity.

The presumption of this argument is the necessity of repression for integration: if Iranian ethnicities are still part of the nation, it is due to that repression....

In reality, the process of integration is due to the cultural developments in the country, and democracy and human rights will further invigorate this national cohesiveness. Iranian ethnicities look for more participation and involvement in their affairs, not disintegration.

The End of Iran and Islam

The tactic of the Iranian totalitarian and authoritarian faction is to equate the Islamic regime and Islam and to label dissidents of the first as the opponents of the second. The ground for this claim is that Islam may guarantee Iran and the Islamic regime will guarantee Islam.

Neither of these correlations holds. Logically, Iran may survive without Islam, and Islam would survive without Iran and without its Islamic regime. The collapse of the Islamic regime will be beneficial for Islam when its darkest features go away....

In the real world, it is not possible to wipe out Islam from the face of Iran, but the elimination of Islamism in power is under way.

Chaos

Some people believe that it is impossible to live in peace in a country with a diverse set of ethnicities, religions, classes, ideologies, and perspectives without a dictator in charge. They do not see a tangible alternative for the existing coercive forces and believe that these forces are the hardcore of the existing regime. Without this hardcore that includes the Islamic Republic Guards Corps and Basij paramilitary, the whole regime will collapse, and that is not in the interest [of these people].

Based on this perspective, the guardian jurist and his plainclothesmen and IRGC loyal members, presenting the regime’s coercive features, have the upper hand. But the 1979 Revolution experience showed Iranians that with the collapse of any regime, the society will not breakdown. People are able to run their communities by themselves while the government is in transition.

Foreign Domination

Loyalists believe that if the regime collapses, foreign countries will conquer Iran and plunder her resources. But the policy of fear does not have sufficient foundation in Iranian society.

In today’s world, foreign powers look for good deals, not the occupation of a country that wants to live in peace with others. The conspiracy theorists who rule Iran scare people about imaginary enemies to prevent people from even thinking about toppling the regime.

The Latest from Iran (13 August): Letters to the Judiciary

1830 GMT: Your Belated Friday Prayer Update. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, head of the Guardian Council, tried to bounce back from a recent rough patch --- you know, the $51 billion US-Saudi-opposition plot episode --- by taking the podium.

Lots of banter about bad America, but no apparent big numbers today, before Jannati laid down the reassurance that everyone was accountable in the Iranian system: "If you don't serve the people, they will not trust you and not vote for you. If they have committed the error to vote for you, they will take back their votes."

1825 GMT: The Battle Within. Mohammad Hashemi, member of the Expediency Council (and brother of former President Hashmei Rafsanjani), has declared that the President's duty is to implement laws, not to interpret them --- saying that he doesn't accept a law is illegal and outside of his duties.

1815 GMT: Ahmadinejad, Unifier-in-Chief. Declaration of the day comes from the President, who told Algerian counterpart Abdelaziz Bouteflika in a Friday telephone call that unity among Muslim nations will lead to the elimination of inequality and oppression everywhere.

1310 GMT: Black Economy Watch. Iran Focus claims that a leaked internal Islamic Revolution Guards Corps report confirms the IRGC is running a major smuggling network from the southern Iranian island of Qeshm in the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

The report also says that the IRGC is building a large base at Roudkhaneh Sarbaz in the southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchistan as part of smuggling, including drugs, from Pakistan.

1300 GMT: The Nuclear Plant. Russian officials say that, after repeated delays, nuclear fuel will be loaded from 21 August into Iran's reactor at Bushehr.

Russian and Iranian specialists will spend 2-3 weeks putting uranium-packed fuel rods into the reactor:

"This will be an irreversible step," Sergei Novikov, a spokesman for Russia's state nuclear corporation, Rosatom, said. "At that moment, the Bushehr nuclear power plant will be certified as a nuclear energy installation."

Novikov said the first fissile reaction would take place in early October.

The Bushehr plant is monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agnecy and has no link with Iran's uranium enrichment programme. Tehran has agreed to return spent fuel to Russia.

1200 GMT: Parliament v. Government. MP Mehrdad Lahouti says the demand for impeachment of agriculture minister Sadegh Khalilian, with 22 signatories, will be handed over to Parliament on Sunday when it returns from summer vacation. The allegation is that Khalilian has inflicted heavy damage to domestic agriculture and caused severe irregularities in the sector.

Ahmad Tavakoli, speaking about the President's refusal to accept Parliament's authorisation of $2 million for the Tehran metro, has said that Ahmadinejad is "dictatorial in his decisions", breaking the law and the Constitution.

1145 GMT: Execution Watch ---Germany Gets Vocal (cont.). According to Die Welt , an (unnamed) official of Germany's Foreign Ministry has demanded the cancellation of the death sentence Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani.

1000 GMT: In Afghanistan. The Washington Post claims --- probably from a US Government official ---- that a "human intelligence asset", in a report for Afghanistan’s domestic intelligence agency, has said that Iran has supplied fresh batteries for about three dozen shoulder-fired SA-7 missiles stockpiled by Taliban forces in Kandahar, in anticipation of a U.S. attack.



The Post adds a note to the dramatic claim:

Any reports linking Iran to the Afghan conflict must be viewed with caution. A previous intelligence report, surfaced by WikiLeaks, describing a 2005 missile-buying mission to North Korea by rebel leader Gulbiddin Hekmatyar and a senior aide to Osama bin Laden, is now suspected of having been fabricated by elements in Washington or elsewhere who wanted to implicate Iran in the Afghan insurgency.

0900 GMT: Execution Watch --- Germany Gets Vocal. Leading Free Democrat politician Rainer Stinner, who visited Iran from 31 July to 3 August, has said that not only Tehran's sentences to death by stoning but its entire legal procedure are flagrant violations of human rights. He claimed that Iran cannot pretend this is a domestic affair, as it has ratified the International Human Rights Convention, and it is isolated by such practices.

The statement is a significant modification of the "live and let live" approach of the Free Democrats towards Iran in the 1990s.

0815 GMT: The Battle Within. Mehdi Khalaji, summarising many of the events covered by EA in recent weeks, writes an analysis for the Washington Institute on Near East Policy, "Internal Divisions among Iranian Hardliners Come to the Fore".

0755 GMT: International Affairs Update. Yesterday we noted the British Ambassador's diplomatic response to 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi's rather un-diplomatic remarks about "England". We cited The Daily Telegraph as the source, but we have learned that the original story was by Martin Fletcher in The Times of London.

0715 GMT: US-Iran. We have posted a separate analysis by Greg Thielmann on the latest US intelligence and Iran's nuclear programme.

0710 GMT: Execution (Ashtiani) Watch. Human Rights Activists News Agency has more information on Wednesday's "confession" on Iranian state television by Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned to death for adultery and then complicity in murder of her husband. The New York Times, in an article by William Yong and Robert Worth, has also picked up on the article.

The Guardian of London reports that the execution by stoning sentence of Mariam Ghorbanzadeh, who allegedly miscarried after being beaten up in Tabriz prison this week, has been changed to hanging in a rapid judicial review.

0700 GMT: You Can't Go Home Again. Tehran has set new restrictions on Iranian expatriates coming into the country.

Mohammad Sharif Malekzadeh, head of the High Council of Iranian Expatriates, said Wednesday that Iranians residing abroad can return for academic reasons only after being approved by certain institutions. Asked if the "Iranian expatriates with political problems" who want to return would face any difficulties, Malekzadeh said that "certain institutions will do their duties in this regard".

0655 GMT: Sanctions(-Busting) Watch. Officials say recent UN Security Council and unilateral sanctions will not affect the €18 billion gas contract between the Swiss energy group EGL and the National Iranian Gas Export Company (NIGEC).

According to Fars News, Turkey's Energy Minister has said Ankara will respect its €1 billion deal wfor the construction of a 660km pipeline to transfer Iran's gas supplies to Europe.

The minister also reportedly said that Iran and Turkey will continue plans for the joint construction of power plants with a total capacity of 6,000 megawatts. And another minister has supposedly confirmed that Turkey paid Iran a $600 million fine for failing to import natural gas at the amount previously agreed between the two countries.

0645 GMT: Sensitive Journalism of the Day. The headline in Keyhan in an article on US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent remarks on human rights abuses in Iran: "Bill Clinton's Slave Defending the Murderers".

0640 GMT: All the President's Men. More on President Ahmadinejad's defence of his controversial chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, against criticism from clerics, members of Parliament, and even Iran's top military commander:

There is an abnormal sensitivity against Mashai....I fully trust him....If someone has any criticism or believes what he says is wrong, he should invite Mr. Mashai to speak with him and even debate with him. Why all this row? Some want to change the issues of our enemies, illegal sanctions and enemies at home into secondary issues....

0630 GMT: International Affairs. Khabar Online writes of possible problems between the Foreign Ministry and the Government because the President's office is taking over the appointment of ambassadors.

(This is far from a new development, as Ahmadinejad's staff pushed out many Iranian ambassadors soon after thge 2005 election. What is interesting here is that Khabar would highlight this and the timing: only yesterday EA's Scott Lucas spoke with The National about Foreign Ministry disquiet over un-diplomatic statements by the President and 1st Vice-President Rahimi.)

0625 GMT: Economy Watch. MP Musalreza Sarvati has challenged the Minister of Works in Majlis that the official unemployment rate of 14.6% is untrue: "employed" includes people who work 1 hour per week and others who work 100 hours without being able to earn a living.

Sarvati claimed that every year 1.1 million new jobseekers are added in Iran.

0615 GMT: The Cleric's Apology. Ayatollah Dastgheib's has replied to a letter of prisoner families: "I, for my part, apologise for not being able to follow your pledges for justice."

Dastgheib warned Iran's ruling class they are "going the wrong way", asking them to "sit down for once" with a group of the people's representatives and senior clerics without harrassing them to explain the reasons for arresting the so-called "uproarers".

Dastgheib's message to these leaders? "This situation will pass, but your deeds will be documented by God and history."

0545 GMT: Friday is expected to be quiet in Iran, as the holy month of Ramadan begins, but news arrives that the head of the judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has more work in his in-box....

The reformist Mosharekat (Islamic Iran Revolution) Party has demanded that the High Court to investigate the files, submitted by seven political prisoners and including a claimed audio proving manipulation by the Revolutionary Guard, of a rigged election:

The wide distribution of a tape of commander Moshfegh's speech, a high official of [Revolutionary Guard] Sarollah Forces, has proven the claims of Green leaders on the manipulation of 10th presidential elections. This person, who boldly and crudely describes the organisation of the putsch intoxicated by power, openly confesses to actions, which cannot be named other than a putsch according to all political schools of the world.

Families of former hunger strikers, having gone three days without news, have written Larijani: "Have our beloved outlived the hunger strike?"

The families of political prisoners have also asked Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi:

How can we be sure of the physical condition of our lovedones after two grueling weeks of hunger strike? The only way we can be reassured of their well-being is if we are given the opportunity to hear their voices, if they are transferred back to the general ward at Evin (Prison), and when we are finally given permission to visit with them.

Students of three Tabriz univerisities have appealed to Larijani that it is time for him to break his silence in the face of major corruption committed by the "ruling body" of Iran. They complain about the lack of justice and the judiciary's independence, with silence amidst unpunished bloodshed, slander, insults, and lies.

Iran's Nukes: The CIA's Latest Analysis (Thielmann)

Greg Thielmann, a former analyst in the State Department, writes for the Arms Control Association:

Comments by senior U.S. officials in 2010 have continued to endorse the principal conclusions of the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities." This may come as a surprise for those accustomed to seeing that earlier document described by pundits and journalists as "flawed," or "erroneous." In fact, from the moment the NIE's sanitized Key Judgments were released in late November 2007, the estimate has been subject to virulent criticism, particularly by those who regret that it did not provide justification for a preventive attack on Iran's nuclear program.

Many critics have impugned the motives of its authors. Former CIA Director James Woolsey has called the NIE "deceptive." Rep. Peter Hoekstra, Ranking Minority Member (and former Chairman) of the House Intelligence Committee has called it "a piece of trash."

There is some considerable irony in hearing such criticism from those intimately familiar with the inner workings of the intelligence community, who seemed to have sleep-walked through the serious professional lapses of the 2002 NIE on Iraq WMD.

It is time to take another close look at the claims made by the Iran Nuclear NIE in light of the critical choices now confronting policy makers.

The most important conclusions from the fall of 2007 still obtain:

* Iran had been working steadily on the facilities and expertise for
enriching uranium, which would eventually allow it to make fissile material for a bomb, if it chose. (Making fissile material is generally considered the most technically demanding and time-consuming hurdle to developing a
nuclear weapons capability.)

* For many years, Iran had had a government-directed and clandestine nuclear weapons program (defined as: "nuclear weapon design and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and uranium enrichment-related work"), but Tehran halted it in the fall of 2003 and the halt lasted at least several
years.

* The estimate indicated that the Department of Energy and the National Intelligence Council were less certain that the halt to these activities represented a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program.

* Iran still faces significant technical problems operating its uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz, but would probably be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame.

* Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so. Only an Iranian political decision to abandon a nuclear weapons objective would plausibly keep Iran from producing nuclear weapons.

There has been no retreat from the key historical judgment that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and no advance to a conclusion that Iran had decided to develop nuclear weapons. According to open source information, foreign intelligence services have suggested that some level of nuclear weapons program activity has been underway since 2003. (See, for example, Mark Hosenball, Newsweek, June 28, 2010). It is reasonable to conclude that Iran wants at least to develop the capability to build nuclear weapons.

Yet Lt. Gen. Ronald Burgess, Jr., Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said in early 2010 that: "The bottom line assessments of the NIE still hold true. We have not seen indication that the (Iranian) government has made the decision to move ahead with the program." The State Department's July 2010 Compliance Report stated flatly that: "Iran had a comprehensive nuclear weapons development program that was ordered halted in fall 2003."

Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair reached a similar conclusion in his Annual 2010 Threat Assessment: "We continue to assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that bring it closer to being able to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so. We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons."

If a decision is made to manufacture and deploy nuclear weapons, CIA Director Leon Panetta claims that it would probably take a year for Iran to enrich sufficient uranium from its current stockpile of LEU (following the expulsion of IAEA inspectors) "and another year to develop the kind of weapon delivery system in order to make that viable."

It would appear then that the long-anticipated "Memorandum to Holders", which is expected to update the 2007 NIE, is likely to revise it rather than revoke it by acknowledging that some kind of ongoing research on nuclear weapons is occurring, without questioning the validity of the 2003 halt that was detected or concluding that Iran has definitively decided to build a bomb.

Iran's secret construction of a uranium enrichment facility near Qom, exposed and effectively neutralized in September 2009, deepened suspicions that Iran was interested in developing at least a breakout capability for clandestinely producing fissile material for weapons, independent of its existing LEU stockpiles, which are monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

However, if there were shocking discoveries of unambiguous nuclear weapons intent in the revelations of defectors like Asgari and Amiri, one would have expected to see an alteration in the phraseology used by senior U.S. intelligence officials to describe Iran's nuclear program. This has not happened.

Unfortunately, the U.S. Government has decided to withhold from the American people even the bottom line judgment of the next estimate on this critical issue for U.S. security policy. This means that we will have to do our best to divine what our government thinks it knows and when it is making an educated guess. This also means that the public and the press will continue to be vulnerable to careless or deliberate misinterpretations of estimates by pundits with an axe to grind.

The Latest from Iran (12 August): Prisoners, Confessions, and the "War Diversion"

1745 GMT: Bazaar Battle Continues. Ahmad Karimi Esfahani, the Secretary General of Islamic Bazaar Association has complained about the announcement of the Consumer Protection Organization that guilds have debts of $24 million, asking why government debts are not published.

Esfahani claimed the announcement Is meant to incite people against the Bazaar and said the vendors won't accept this slander --- guilds are not responsible for high prices, instead it is due to the mismanagement of government, which then tries to pass the blame.

1730 GMT: The Battle Within. Another challenge to the President, this time from the Ansar Hizbullah daily Yalthareth....

The newspaper notes that Ahmadinejad protested against a seven-month prison sentence for former IRIB chief Mohammad Jafar Behdad for slander against the Larijani brothers and Hashemi Rafsanjani and asks, "Would he do the same for a normal journalist if he had insulted the President? Would he defend a nobody?"

The newspaper continues, "For some justice has no meaning and they allow themselves to mock and humiliate judiciary, because they disagree with a court ruling."

Behdad is a member of the President's Council for Policy-making and Propagation.

1545 GMT: All the President's Men (cont.). The "conservative" Jomhooriye Eslami daily has attacked Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, declaring that his number of offices is unprecedented in the past 30 years and asserting that he has made stupid statements on every matter from heaven to earth, inciting the anger of the people and political figures.

The newspaper continued that, instead of Rahim-Mashai being disciplined, his superiors praise him and repeat his words, which makes the situation even worse. Jomhooriye Eslami says that such a person should be reminded once and for all that he should "talk in his own realm" and refrains from inciting protests amongst the people.

MP Gholam-Hossein Masoudi Reyhan has stated that 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi's words are "an insult to science and professors", criticising the Vice President's assertion that all Iranian universites are of poor quality.

1540 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Reformist Mohsen Safaei Farahani has declared that he will not withdraw his complaint over unjust and abusive treatment and will return to prison.

Farahani was arrested on June 20, 2009. Sentenced to five years in prison, he is currently on leave

1330 GMT: The Battle Within. A interesting summary, "The Clerics Turn Away; Iran in Fever" by R. Chimelli in Süddeutsche Zeitung last Friday:

The opposition movement has lost the battle on the streets. Organized demonstrations do not come about, because police, militia and thug forces are too powerful, and --– maybe more importantly --– because of the horrible accounts of torture and illegal detention centers, given by those arrested during the protests. Censorship has never been as repressive as today and reaches out to the print media as well as the internet. Iran’s most renowned journalists and its best-known student leader are currently on hunger strike in prison. Hardly noticed abroad, smaller or larger labor disputes are arising everywhere in the country, (but) union leaders like the head of Tehran’s bus driver union, Mansur Osanloo, have been jailed for several years....

However, Ahmadinejad and the spiritual leader Khamenei could not win people’s hearts or minds. There is not a single renowned writer, artist or filmmaker who would take sides with the country’s rulers. The regime is creating a climate of intellectual poverty, and more and more leading clerics are turning their backs to the regime --– sometimes so visibly that they are answered with violent attacks.

Chimelli notes the significant incident --- which we covered closely on EA --- where the Supreme Leader's office approached Grand Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi for the "I am the Rule of the Prophet" fatwa. (Makarem-Shirazi declined, unless Ayatollah Khamenei put the pronouncement in the form of an answer to a question from a follower.)

1300 GMT: Britain Does Not Recognise Foreign Affairs Greatness of 1st VP Rahimi. This week we have been noting the emergence of 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi as a commentator on international relations and events.

Unfortunately, it seems there is one observer who has failed to give due regard to this. The UK Ambassador to Iran, Simon Gass, said comments about the English as “a bunch of thick people” were “illogical and worthless” and showed “a lack of respect for human dignity”.

Mr Rahimi, in a speech on Monday, called Australians “a bunch of cattlemen” and said South Koreans should be “smacked in the face until they become human”. But his finest remarks were reserved for the land of Queen Elizabeth II:

England has nothing. Its inhabitants are not human, its officials are not responsible, and it doesn’t even have any natural resources. [They are] a bunch of thick people ruled by a mafia. They have plundered the world in the last 500 years and the young lad in charge now is even more stupid than his predecessor.

1200 GMT: Karroubi Watch. More from Mehdi Karroubi's e-mail interview with The Guardian of London:

Karroubi said he believed the Green movement had not been defeated: "It's no longer possible for the opposition movement to pour out en masse into the streets ….But we also do not think it's necessary any more to do this....People were out in the streets to inform the world of what is really happening inside Iran, and they succeeded in doing so. Now the world knows what is the problem in Iran."

Karroubi added his conception of the Islamic Republic: "I should make it clear that we are a reformist movement, not a revolutionary one … We are seeking nothing more than a free election."

The cleric, asked about the notion of leadership in the opposition responded, "In my opinion, it's an advantage that no specific person is the leader. I think that the only reason the Green movement has not been stopped yet is because it doesn't have one leader or unified leadership. If it had, then by arresting that leader they could have controlled the whole movement."

1145 GMT: Mystery Solved. Last week non-Iranian heads were scratched over President Ahmadinejad's aphorism, in the middle of a speech to the Iranian diaspora conference, "The bogeyman snatched the boob."

Iranian commentators went as far as to suggest there might be a bit of Viagra in the water of Tehran's politicians, but Golnaz Esfandiari has offered the explanation, "The expression is one used by mothers in Iran when they are weaning their children off breast milk."

Thus, for an Ahmadinejad scoffing at Washington's efforts to punish Iran over its nuclear programme, "the bogeyman snatched the boob" from the Americans.

0930 GMT: All the President's Men (cont.). Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has brought Gholamhossein Elham, who failed to be re-appointed to the Guardian Council, back into government by naming him as his legal advisor.

An EA source says there is a rumour that Elham will soon replace the controversial Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai as Chief of Staff.

0825 GMT: All the President's Men.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has publicly defended his embattled aide, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai:

Mashai is the president’s Chief of Staff and I have full trust in him. The atmosphere of criticism is a necessity and nobody should be condemned for voicing his viewpoints and not every difference of opinion should lead to a fight.

And then this interesting twist, given that Iran's head of armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi, said on Monday that Mashai’s remarks on Iran and Islam are a “crime against national security": Ahmadinejad claimed that the attacks against Mashaei are the work of “certain political groups" who are trying to undermine the government.

0805 GMT: Parliament v. Government. President Ahmadinejad has refused again to allocate $2 million for the Tehran metro.

The initial authorisation by the Parliament was refused by the Guardian Council. The Majlis passed the bill to the Expediency Council, which confirmed it, only to meet Ahmadinejad's refusal.

The President has now announced that he has reported "all critical issues" to the Supreme Leader, who has handed the matter back to the Guardian Council, which in turn has established a special group to solve the problems.

EA correspondent Ms Zahra analyses: "This is a bad situation for all. The Supreme Leader has proven that extant institutions are worth nothing and has put himself in opposition to the Majlis. The Majlis will be a joke if the Guardian Council refuses again. The position of Hashemi Rafsanjani, as head of the Expediency Council, is weakened. Ahmadinejad is losing the support of hardline MPs."

0800 GMT: Karroubi's International Comment. Mehdi Karroubi has written, in an e-mail interview with The Guardian of London: "On the one hand, the government's mishandling of the economy has resulted in deep recession and increasing inflation inside the country... On the other hand, we have sanctions which are just strengthening the illegitimate government."

Karroubi added:

Look at Cuba and North Korea. Have sanctions brought democracy to their people? They have just made them more isolated and given them the opportunity to crack down on their opposition without bothering themselves about the international attention....Because Iran is getting more isolated, more and more they are becoming indifferent to what the world is thinking about them.

0745 GMT: Iran-US. Another signal from Washington that resumed talks with Tehran are being considered....

National Security Advisor James Jones has told CNN that President Obama may meet Mahmoud Ahmadinejad if discussions resume over Iran's nuclear programme: “Ultimately if we find a convergence of paths all things are possible.

Jones indicated that a gesture from Tehran over three Americans, detained for more than a year, would be helpful: “One thing they might do is return our three hikers. That would be an important gesture. It could lead to better relations.”

Barack Obama 'may be prepared to meet Iranian president’:

Barack Obama’s national security adviser, Gen James Jones, has indicated the President may be prepared to meet Mahmoud Ahmadinejad if the regime resumed negotiations over its nuclear programme. ...
However, in an interview with CNN, Gen Jones said “the door’s open” if the Iranians agree to resume talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency. When asked whether Mr Obama may meet the Iranian leader, Gen Jones said: “Ultimately if we find a convergence of paths all things are possible.
“One thing they might do is return our three hikers. That would be an important gesture. It could lead to better relations.” However, the President’s national security adviser said there would be “no point in a theatrical meeting.” It is unlikely that the Iranians will agree to the American’s demands as the regime has repeatedly circumvented previous attempts to rein in its nuclear programme.

0740 GMT: Execution (Ashtiani) Watch. Following Brazil's formal offer of asylum to Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned to death for adultery, Foreign Minister Celso Amorim has told a conference of university students, "Who can say that a humanitarian gesture won't be good for Iran, for its image in the world?"

0715 GMT: The Torture Files. Perisan2English has posted a translation of the report --- noted by EA earlier this week --- in Khodnevis of the files of 22 political prisoners, allegedly abused, delivered to the Supreme Leader.

According to Khodnevis' source, Khamenei rejected the claims in the letters, but after an agreement with Hashemi Rafsanjani, a five-person committee was set up to investigate the cases. Two former Ministers of Intelligence, Younesi and Mohseni-Ejei, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are among the members of the committee.

0650 GMT: Anything You Can Threaten, We Can Threaten Better....

Israel might have Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic, but Iran has an array of media outlets for this week's posturing.

The naval commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Ali Fadavi, said Wednesday, “The IRGC’s navy is been fully positioned in Bandar Abbas (in southern Iran) and has the capability to carry out its assigned functions and can respond to threats of extra-regional enemies....The IRGC’s naval force will respond to naval-based enemy threats with full preparation and absolute force, striking the enemy from all positions and from all sides in case of war.”

Fadavi's declaration followed an announcement on Sunday by the Minister of Defence of the positioning of military equipment, including four submarines capable of launching missiles, at IRGC and army bases in southern Iran.

And he head of Iran's Joint Chief of Staff, Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, responding to remarks by Admiral Mike Mullen, the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: “Our foreign minister told Mr. Mike Mullen that if the US attacked Iran, it would be in worse shape than it is after its attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq. America will be finished if it attacks Iran. America is not in a good situation. It can neither tolerate the heavy costs (of another war) nor tolerate fighting against Iran’s Basiji heroes.”

0640 GMT: Mousavi Watch. Mir Hossein Mousavi has met with youth from Iran's provinces to discuss the social, economic, and political situation, including unemployment and the rise in drug addiction, as well as continued activism despite regime pressure.

Speaking about the recent hunger strike in Evin Prison, Mousavi said, “The meaningful and inspiring strike by prisoners will eventually shows its effective outcomes, and I’d like to congratulate these brave prisoners who ended their strike and witnessed its results.”

Mousavi asserted that the Green Movement had the capacity to resolve the “moral” concerns of the country: “We must remember that the social deviances are the results of the wrongdoings, flawed ways of thinking, and deceptive ways and lies created for the nation by the hardliners, and for this reason I believe that the supreme and honourable goals of the Green Movement can control the deviations [from the right path] in society."

Demanding the rights of assembly and protest, Mousavi said, “Neglecting parts of the Constitution, especially the nation’s rights, renders the rest of its articles as meaningless too. How can those who are not even prepared to mention, for once, the rights of citizens or the right of the people to control their own destiny, make any claim about the covenant between the people and the state? Violating this covenant will lead to the illegitimacy of the state."

0545 GMT: We begin this morning with three features.

EA's Josh Shahryar, writing in The Huffington Post assesses the significance of the recent hunger strike by political prisoners and its impact beyond the jail cells: "The Uprising Continues".

We have highlighted in a separate entry the Iranian regime's response to criticism of the death sentence for adultery imposed upon Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani and the harassment of her lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei: putting Ashtiani on a prime-time national TV programme to "confess".

And Scott Lucas --- briefly, because there are more important matters to consider today --- takes apart the "analysis" that may well dominate US-based chatter today: Jeffrey Goldberg's lengthy projection of high-level Israeli opinion on a aerial attack on Iran.

Iran-Israel-US: Goldberg Journalism "If You Build This War, It Will Come"

I have read the "analysis" that may well dominate US-based chatter today: Jeffrey Goldberg's lengthy projection of high-level Israeli opinion on a aerial attack on Iran.

Here's Goldberg's hook-line:

What is [most] likely...is that one day next spring, the Israeli national-security adviser, Uzi Arad, and the Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, will simultaneously telephone their counterparts at the White House and the Pentagon, to inform them that their prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has just ordered roughly one hundred F-15Es, F-16Is, F-16Cs, and other aircraft of the Israeli air force to fly east toward Iran --- possibly by crossing Saudi Arabia, possibly by threading the border between Syria and Turkey, and possibly by traveling directly through Iraq’s airspace, though it is crowded with American aircraft.

Let's call this for what it is. Jeffrey Goldberg is not functioning as an analyst here. He is not even carrying out the fundamental task of a reporter. He is serving as a spokesman for the Israeli Government in its attempt to put psychological pressure on Iran, to block any resumption of talks on uranium enrichment, and possibly to push Washington into acceptance of, if not support for, Israel's military action.

Goldberg's piece has no substance as a critique of the political, diplomatic, and military situation, for it is void of any information of --- as opposed to rhetoric about --- the state of Iran's nuclear programme and its international strategy. It is void of any information about Washington's perspective and approach, including the option --- very much "on the table", to use the cliche invoked for military action --- of discussions with Tehran.

"The Arabs" do appear for a couple of sentences, but only to have their perspectives simplified and twisted into support of an Israeli attack.



Goldberg's sole attention is to pass on and elevate the rhetoric of the Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his advisors. (The author claims authority from 40+ interviews with Israelis inside and outside the government, but they are merely murmurs amidst the loud declarations of Netanyahu and equally loud projection by Goldberg.)

It may well be that Israel has decided on military action by next spring, but we don't know that and neither does Goldberg. All we really know --- and I hope, for the sake of some integrity, so does he --- is that the Israeli leadership want him to think that.

And they want him to write that --- in an "intellectual" US periodical, where the New York-Washington political corridor will pick this us as received wisdom, rather than a slick propaganda operation.

I don't write this note as a rejection of the military option. However, if a writer is going to advocate that option, it should be done so openly and honestly, not disguised as "reportage". It should be done so on the basis of information from a range of sources, locations, and perspectives, not as a conduit for the manoeuvres of one actor in the political drama.

If Goldberg's piece receives undeserved attention as a considered definition of the state of the Iran-Israel-US relationship, then I will post a detailed dissection of its artifices and distortions.

But not now. Because for me, if one is concerned with news and, indeed, issues of justice and humanity, there are matters far more important --- yes, more important than boys-and-toys posturing on aerial warfare --- to attend to today, tomorrow, and the day after that.