UPDATED Iran Analysis: What Has Green Movement Achieved? (Sahimi)

UPDATED 18 August: There has been a good deal of chatter about a response to Sahimi's article by an unidentified blogger: "The Green Movement has achieved a lot, but not through the help or leadership of the so-called reformers (which in reality acted as a damage control to avoid any major pressure on the regime that may lead to regime change), but through the courage of the Iranian people who took to the streets and protested, even confronted the brutal and fully armed thug regime by their own bare hands to delegitimize and expose the Islamic Republic while expressing to the world that how different the Iranian people are compare to the Islamic occupiers of the Islamic regime. "



Muhammad Sahimi writes for Tehran Bureau:

The Green Movement is over one year old. The large street demonstrations and gatherings, both before and after the rigged presidential election of June 2009, that gave birth to the movement, have largely ended. The world has shifted its attention back to Iran's nuclear program and away from the struggle by a large majority of the Iranian people for a better society. Disappointment and even hopelessness permeate a small, but significant, segment of Iranian society, both at home and in the diaspora. We must ask, Is the Green Movement still alive or is it dead? If it is still alive, what has it achieved, given the heavy price that Iranians have paid over the last 15 months?....

[Sections on Three Perspectives and Background of Movement]

Achievements of the Green Movement

This is the environment in which the Green Movement was born. Let us now consider its achievements.

Demonstrating the ineffectiveness of Velaayat-e Faghih

The backbone of Iran's political system is the doctrine of Velaayat-e Faghih (guardianship of the Islamic jurist), represented by the Supreme Leader. The 1989 revisions of the Constitution gave nearly absolute power to the Leader on many fronts, and Ayatollah Khamenei has not hesitated to use the power in his attempt to crush the opposition. But his attempts have come at a heavy price: the republican aspect of the political system has essentially become irrelevant, and the vast majority of the people do not recognize the legitimacy of the Faghih. The erosion in the doctrine's legitimacy and its glaring ineffectiveness has forced the hardliners to claim that it is, in fact, not the people that represent the source of legitimacy forVelaayat-e Faghih. Rather it is God who appoints the Supreme Leader and the role of the people -- or their representatives in the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body that names the Supreme Leader -- is to discover the appointee. It is now clear, more than ever, that a large, complex, and dynamic nation such as Iran cannot be run by the system of Velaayat-e Faghih,a concept that is not even accepted by the majority of Shia clerics. In fact, only the hardliners' use of force has allowed Velaayat-e Faghih to survived as long as it has.

The fall of Ayatollah Khamenei

Long before last year's election, it was clear to the nation that Ahmadinejad was Khamenei's preferred candidate. In a meeting with Ahmadinejad's cabinet a year before the election, the ayatollah told the ministers, "Do not work as if you will be in charge for only one more year, but plan for five more years." The ayatollah had also strongly supported Ahmadinejad during his first term, even when his incompetence had become too obvious to ignore.

When on June 13, 2009, the day after the rigged presidential vote, Khamenei congratulated Ahmadinejad on his "reelection," not even waiting for the Guardian Council to certify the vote's legitimacy, it became clear that he had tied his maintenance of power to Ahmadinejad. He lost any residual legitimacy six days later when, leading Tehran's Friday Prayers, he threatened the opposition and declared that if any blood was spilled, it would be the opposition's fault. Ever since, Khamenei has been the leader of just one political faction -- and a shaky one at that -- rather than the fatherly figure that the Supreme Leader is supposed to be.

These events have led some of Khamenei's most loyal supporters to desert him. Mohammad Nourizad is one good example. An artist and journalist who used to write for Kayhan, the mouthpiece of the hardliners, he has written several open letters to the ayatollah, criticizing him on all fronts. Hislatest letter is particularly sharp, not only for its content, but also for its tone. Nourizad refers to the ayatollah as "Sayyed Ali." That is totally unprecedented.

The net result of all of this is that Khamenei is now despised by the vast majority of Iranians. He was already held in contempt when he prevented the "smiling Sayyed" -- as people affectionately referred to Khatami -- from carrying out his reforms. But events since last year have made him the most loathed figure in Iran, even more than Ahmadinejad.

Despite their pretense otherwise, even the hardliners are keenly aware of this. Not only have they been attempting to tie the ayatollah and his "legitimacy" to a higher authority -- God Himself -- they have also been busy trying to present a "softer," "gentler" image of the ayatollah to the nation. Thus the arrangement of meetings between him and artists, poets, authors, young people, and so forth. In most cases, the true artists and intellectuals -- those who support the Green Movement -- stay away, and the effort has failed miserably. The hardliners have also tried to portray the ayatollah as someone who lives very simply, is utterly uncorrupted, and has no wealth of which to speak.

Even if the claim is true, he remains corrupt -- his thirst for absolute power seems to have no limit.

Revealing the true nature of the fundamentalists

Iranian Islamic fundamentalists refer to themselves as Principlists, simply because they know that the word "fundamentalist" has very negative connotations. During the Khatami era, they claimed to support a religious democracy. But when the Reformists swept the elections for the 6th Majles and Khatami was reelected by a margin that surpassed the one in his initial victory, it became clear that the fundamentalists would lose almost any competitive vote, let alone ones that were truly free and fair. That is why they have been using the organs of power to hold "engineered elections" -- those whose outcome is a priori fixed in their favor. The Guardian Council vets the candidates and blocks those who are popular and credible from running. Even then, the fundamentalists change the votes (as they did last year) or declare an election flawed so that they can cancel it (as has happened with many elections for seats in the Majles).

Last year's rigged election, and particularly the violent reaction by the hardliners to people's peaceful protests in its aftermath, basically burst the bubble for the fundamentalists. Even they recognize it. There is no longer any pretense to a religious democracy. Some leading fundamentalists now speak openly about the Islamic Government of Iran, rather than the Islamic Republic of Iran. All the talk about the impending return of Mahdi -- the Shiites' 12th Imam, who is supposed to emerge from hiding one day -- represents another facet of the fundamentalists' attempt to distance themselves from any pretense to meaningful elections and democracy. Who can blame them? They cannot win any meaningful election.

Gaping fissures in the ranks of the fundamentalists

Last year's election and its aftermath have also deepened the fissures in the conservative and fundamentalist ranks. There is constant infighting among them. Many Majles deputies criticize Ahmadinejad. Many of them have made revelations about members of his cabinet, such as accusing First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi of having a fake doctoral degree and of involvement in a $700 million embezzlement case. Majles Speaker Ali Larijani has accused Ahmadinejad of breaking the law and appointing those Larijani calls foroumaayegaan (roughly, "utterly unqualified") to the cabinet.

Some Majles deputies have even spoken of impeaching Ahmadinejad. This is all happening in a body in which 200 of the deputies supposedly belong to the fundamentalist camp. Ahmadinejad recently complained to Khamenei that "running the nation has encountered difficulties."

Khamenei effectively sacked Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, who Ahmadinejad preferred as his first vice president. Even the reactionary Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, Ahmadinejad's spiritual advisor, has attacked Mashaei.

Still, the president has appointed his close ally to numerous posts. Mashaei is Ahmadinejad's chief of staff, secretary-general of the government's cultural commission, head of the council for free economic zones, head of the council of young advisors to the president, head of the Razavi pilgrimage and culture, representative of the president in the national council of the Iranians in diaspora, head of the Institute for Globalization, and head of the government's communication council. This means nothing but fissures between Ahmadinejad and Khamenei, his most important supporter.

Majles deputy Morteza Nabavi, manager of Resaalat, a leading conservative daily, and a former cabinet member, said in a recent interview, "We do not have the required stability in the ranks of the government officials. They do not all think alike, and are not united. We do not have this even among the elite Principlists. Some of our friends tell me explicitly that they have given up. But you do not see the same in the opposition. Today, only a few defend the Supreme Leader." Khamenei himself has openly talked about the khavaas-e bibasirat (roughly, "unwise, useless elite") who have failed to openly support him.

At the same time, the military faction of the fundamentalists, led by the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia, has been putting relentless pressure on the more moderate, more pragmatic conservatives, in order to coerce their support. The attempt to take over the Islamic Azad University is but one example. Ahmadinejad recently declared, "There is only one political party, and that is the Party of Velaayat," implying that all other political groups, even within the conservative/hardline camp, should be disbanded. The pressure on such parties has been so heavy that it prompted Mohammad Reza Bahonar -- a leading fundamentalist and former Majles deputy speaker, whose nephew Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi is a close confidant of Ahmadinejad's -- to declare, "A threat to the Principlists' front is a small faction within the front itself that is increasingly making more transparent its plan for eliminating the rest of the Principlists." Bahonar's own faction, the Islamic Coalition Party, which represented the backbone of the right wing during most of the Rafsanjani and Khatami eras, feels threatened and left out.

Fissures in the Revolutionary Guards

The Green Movement has also penetrated the rank and file of the Revolutionary Guards, where there has long been speculation about possible fissures. Major General Mohammad Ali (Aziz) Jafari, the top Guard commander, has finally confirmed such speculations. He admitted in a recent news conference, "We have had some casualties in the 'soft war,'" which is how the hardliners refer to the popular struggle for democracy. He also admitted that the Green Movement has supporters among the Guards, and that the events of the past year have created "ambiguities" for some Guard commanders. He said, "We have tried to convince them that they are wrong, which is better than physical elimination."

Credible reports indicate that at least 250 Guard commanders have either been forced into retirement or expelled. Some former Guard commanders who supported Mousavi have been arrested and tortured badly. One recent example is Hamzeh Karami.

Fissures between the Guards and Ahmadinejad

Even though Ahamadinejad could have never risen to power without the active support of the Guards and Basij, there have been consistent and credible reports of tension between him and some of the top Guard commanders. In one episode in February 2010, the president and General Jafari got into a heated argument during a meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

Jafari shouted at Ahmadinejad, "Have some shame. It is due to your incompetence that Iran has been in chaos for six months."

Fissures between Ayatollah Khamenei and the Guards

Even though the Guard and Basij commanders repeatedly declare their loyalty to Khamenei, I believe that their long-term plan is to eliminate the clerics from the organs of power. Having already described this in an article last year and returned to the topic in an article this June, I will not go into further detail about it here.

Fissures in the ranks of the clerics

Among the most important fruits of the Green Movement have been the deep fissures in the ranks of the clerics, including the leading ayatollahs. The most prominent moderate ayatollahs, such as Yousef Sanei, Ali Mohammad Dastgheyb, Asadollah Bayat Zanjani, and Mohammad Mousavi Khoeinihahave openly supported the Green Movement and harshly criticized the hardliners and Ahmadinejad. The Green Movement has damaged the credibility of Khamenei so much that the only ayatollahs openly supporting him are either those who owe their positions to the fundamentalists and hardliners that prop them up, such as Ayatollah Hossein Noori-Hamedani, or the reactionary ayatollahs who also have reputations for being corrupt, men such as former judiciary chief Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, Secretary-General of the Guardian Council Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, and Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, who is believed to aspire to Khamenei's position. There is not a single ayatollah with any credibility among the people who supports the fundamentalists and Khamenei. The rest of the Supreme Leader's clerical support mostly comes from young former students of Mesbah Yazdi.

The remaining ayatollahs can be divided into two groups. One group comprises those who are totally silent, indicating their displeasure and disapproval of the current regime. The other comprises those who have shown their displeasure by their actions. For example, two important conservative clerics, Ayatollah Ebrahim Amini and Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Ostadi, refused to lead the Qom Friday Prayers for several weeks.Ayatollah Abdollah Javadi Amoli, a maternal uncle of the Larijani brothers, even declared that he would never lead Friday Prayers again. Almost all of these ayatollahs refused to congratulate Ahmadinejad on his "reelection." In a Friday Prayer sermon last year, Ostadi vehemently criticized the supporters of Ahmadinejad.

This has also deepened the fissures between Khamenei and most of the important ayatollahs. He has tried to get some credible ayatollah to certify his son Mojtaba as a mojtahed (Islamic scholar), without success. He pressured some of the major ayatollahs to congratulate Ahmadinejad on his "reelection," but they refused. There are credible reports that the ayatollahs have rebuked Khamenei for supporting "the worst possible person" for the presidency -- Ahmadinejad -- and have told him that if they follow suit, they will lose their popular support and following.

Grand Ayatollah Lotfollah Safi Golpayegani, the first secretary-general of the Guradian Council, recently told Khamenei, referencing his transgressions and his eternal fate, "You have lost this world, and I worry for you in the other world." When pressured by Khamenei's representatives to meet with Ahmadinejad, the grand ayatollah reportedly said, "I will never let such a ----- into my home."

Grand Ayatollah Hossein Vahid Khorasani, father-in-law of Sadegh Larijani, the judiciary chief, is also known to oppose Khamenei. When the right-wing clergy tried to promote Khamenei as a marja' taghlid (source of emulation) in the 1990s, Vahid Khorasani is known to have told him, "You be the sultan, but leave marjaeiyat to others."

Whenever Khamenei visits Qom, Vahid Khorasani and many other leading ayatollahs leave town to avoid having to meet with him.

Such frictions have also created suspicions within Khamenei's inner circle. When he recently traveled to Qom and met with Ayatollah Javadi Amoli at the home of Amoli's sister (Amoli apparently wanted to avoid meeting in Amoli's own home), Amoli's staff brought cups of teas for both men. An aide to Khamenei then switched the tea that had been given to his boss with the one given to Amoli, as if it might have been poisoned. Amoli wasreportedly so angered that he abruptly ended the meeting.

Khamenei clearly recognizes the significance of all these fissures, which is why he constantly emphasizes that the nation needs unity. What he really means, though, is that the hardliners must become united.

Transformation of the Guards into a political-security organization

As pointed out above, Ahmadinejad could not have come to power without significant help from the Guards and Basij. Such intervention by military organs into political affairs violates the creed of Khomeini, who strictly banned political involvement by the military. At first, the Guards would deny that they were intervening politically at all, though it was clear to most observers that the denials rang hollow. Then, as the Guards were increasingly called upon to intervene in affairs of state, they were forced to defend their actions with the excuse that they were protecting the country and the Revolution against "internal enemies." When that was mocked, General Jafari claimed that the Guards, or Sepah-e Pasdaran, had to obey the "the present era Vali," namely, the current Supreme Leader. When that did not work either, he finally had to admit, "Even before being a military organization, the Sepah is, first and foremost, a political-security organization."

The Guards can no longer conceal their aims. By supporting a repressive regime, they have made clear that they are opposing the wishes of a large majority of the people.

In effect, the Guards now play the same role that the military plays in Pakistan. This poses two dangers for Iran: First, it puts national security at risk, because the country's elite military forces are preoccupied with internal affairs, at a time when there is the possibility of foreign military attacks on Iran.

As Mousavi put it, referring to the Guards' economic interests, "When the Sepah is worried about the fluctuations in the stock market, it cannot defend the nation and its national interest, and becomes corrupt." Second, just as in the case of Pakistan, the militarization of Iran gives rise to extremist groups that may fall out of the Guards' control and create problems for the nation with adventurism abroad.

A movement neither religious nor nonreligious

Throughout Iran's modern history, there have been arguments between those who adhere to two opposing schools of thought: Those who claim that the reason Iran is not as advanced as it can and should be is the central role religion plays, and those who insist on keeping religion at the center. The Shah tried hard to eliminate religion as a social force. The Islamic Republic tries to justify everything it does based on religion.

The Green Movement is neither religious, nor nonreligious. It is a social movement that encompasses all those, regardless of their religion, gender, ethnicity, and political views, that worry about Iran and its future and want their country to be run by a just and democratic system in which the rule of law is supreme and all citizens are equal. This has been emphasized by both Mousavi and his wife, Dr. Rahnavard, which has angered the hardliners, who accuse him of planning to eliminate religion from governance.

As such, the movement is unique, and its very nature constitutes a great achievement. This is the first time that Iran has had such a movement, which bodes well for its future.

A nonviolent movement

The Green Movement rejects violence because it aims to achieve national progress lawfully, not through force. It emphasizes the significance of executing the laws without exception. In fact, the movement's leaders correctly recognize that if the fate of the present struggle were to be decided by violence, the sure loser would be the Green Movement. The hardliners are armed to the teeth, and do not hesitate to use violence. Moreover, the hardliners do not even mind if the movement resorts to violence, because it would give them the perfect excuse to carry out a large-scale massacre of the movement's supporters. The nonviolent nature of the movement, despite the hardline-sponsored violence that resulted in the murder of at least 110 people and the torture of countless others in the aftermath of last year's rigged election, is another great achievement.

A noncharismatic movement

The Green Movement is not based on its leaders' charisma. In fact, Mousavi and Karroubi can hardly be considered charismatic. While Khatami can, he has taken a backseat and plays his natural role, that of a deep thinker who criticizes the ruling establishment calmly and rationally. For example, as Khamenei and his supporters refer to the Green Movement as fetneh (sedition), Khatami has responded, "The true fetneh is the amateurish lies that are being told to the nation." He recently observed, "In dictatorships, criticism is interpreted as the effort to overthrow the political system."

Instead of being based on the personal charisma of its leaders, the Green Movement is based on the social, economic, and political demands of Iran's citizens. In short, the movement wants justice and equality -- social, political, and economic -- for all Iranians. These demands will not be met unless the nation becomes a true republic, which is why the leaders of the movement insist on the republican features of the Constitution and underscore how the hardliners have rendered them meaningless.

A pragmatic movement

The Green Movement is pragmatic. It recognizes its strengths and weaknesses, as well as those of the hardliners. Thus, the movement does not set lofty goals meant to be swiftly achieved. Ideals always sound wonderful on paper. But at the end of the day, one must confront the facts on the ground: The hardliners are armed to the teeth, control the nation's vast resources, have a significant -- albeit narrow -- social base, and are ready to fight to the end, simply because they have no place to go.

At the same time, it is a grave mistake to think that every citizen that is unhappy with the hardliners wants, first and foremost, political and social freedom. It is a grave mistake to believe that every morning, when the dissatisfied citizens of Iran wake up, the first thing that they all think about is respect for human rights or freedom of expression. I am not saying that they do not care about such rights, but that they may not be the top priority of every citizen who is unhappy with the hardliners. For some, for many, economic grievances are primary.

Thus, as Mousavi has emphasized, the most important thing to settle on is a set of minimum demands about which every unhappy citizen agrees, so that the movement can inspire maximum support. Mousavi himself is the embodiment of this pragmatism. He represents the mainstream of the movement. There are some who are more radical than him, and some who are more conservative. In my opinion, pragmatism is crucial to the future success of the movement.

A growing movement

Despite some claims to the contrary, the Green Movement continues to grow. The best evidence is the fact that the hardliners are still on the defensive. Illegal arrests persist. Show trials are still resulting in long jail sentences. The hardliners continue to make absurd claims in the attempt to discredit the movement's leaders, such as the recent assertion by Ayatollah Jannati that the United States, via Saudi Arabia, provided $1 billion to Khatami to spend against the ruling establishment.

Minister of Intelligence Haydar Moslehi then claimed that it was not $1 billion, but $17 billion that the United States spent in Iran. Khamenei recentlywarned the hardliners, "Be prepared for larger fetneh."

The movement has also grown intellectually. The best evidence for this is the dramatic evolution of Mousavi himself.

All one needs do is compare the Mousavi of the period immediately around the rigged election with the present one. Whereas he used to say that the Constitution must be executed word for word, he now says that the Constitution is not God's words and thus inalterable. Rather, after the movement's minimum set of demands has been achieved, the Constitution can be revised and its undemocratic articles eliminated. Mousavi has also emphasized the rights of all citizens, and his positions are now those of a person who truly believes in a democratic political system....

[Section on Green Movement and Iran's Nuclear Programme]

Read full article....

Iran Document: Nourizad's Last Letter to Supreme Leader "The 10 Grievances"

Since the disputed 2009 election, journalist and filmmaker Mohammad Nourizad has written a series of letters to the Supreme Leader. One of those letters, asking Ayatollah Khamenei to apologise for the suppression of post-election protest, contributed to Nourizad's arrest in November 2009; however, he continued to write the Supreme Leader from prison. In April 2010, he was sentenced to 3 1/2 years for the open letters to Khamenei and to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.



This week the "sixth and last" letter from Nourizad, who is currently free on bail while his sentence is appealed, to Khamenei appeared. (Note that the filmmaker does not address the Supreme Leader as "Ayatollah" but as "Seyed", a lower religious title.) Translation by Persian2English:

Death shall inevitably arrive and swallow you and I. We, the lost and the unknown, will soon be obliterated from memory, but you have played a role in making part of the history of this land and it will be talked about for a long time. Despite all that we do not have and all that you have, a common destiny joins us, and that [destiny] is dying and rotting and will be held accountable on Judgment Day.

They will have us and you stand on Judgement Day so that those who were happy and those who were discontent may voice their grievances. Not many people will know us, but you will have many content friends and discontent complainants.

Your friends and followers will talk about your virtues: Oh God, we witnessed that Seyed Ali Khamenei was a courageous, brave, and influential orator. He would always call us to piety. He gathered no worldly possessions and single-handedly clashed with the U.S.A. and Israel. He led our country through labyrinths of sedition, and on every occasion, warned us against the enemies who are in ambush . During his long leadership, although our country was struggling in deep-rooted poverty and corruption, we accomplished stem-cell research, Shahab missiles, uranium enrichment, the launch of Omid Satellite, and even gained victory of Hezbollah over Israel in the 33-day war.

Dear leader,

….Aside from your friends and followers who are mostly those who are profiting from your leadership, there will be those who will voice their grievances. Out of friendship, and since I wish you a good future, I will repeat some of these grievances….Perhaps your friends who have closed their eyes and who serve in the judicial and security system will be enraged at the questions that I have posed here and will do to me what they have done to hundreds of innocent people.

On Judgment Day, your complainants will carry grievances from you to God and say:

1) Oh God, Seyed Ali Khamenei, aside from the virtues that he should have had and did have and the good deeds he had to perform and did perform, he beat on the drums of schism from the beginning of his leadership. He raised the flag of ”those who belong to the inner circle of the regime” and “those who do not belong to the inner circle”, and thus society was led down the path of division and fission…Oh God, why did those who selected and vetted on his behalf deny our civil and social dignity and respect?

2) Oh God…during the years of his leadership, some groups of people faced imprisonment and torture for the smallest protest and the slightest criticism of senior officials who imposed on them. These groups of people were subjected to great psychological and social harms.

3) During his rule, the law and observing the rule of law by officials was looked down upon and belittled….An unknown miserable person would be sent to prison for owing $1000, while the leader’s favourite President, the Vice President, some of the ministers, and his government officials were involved in multi-million dollar embezzlements and extortions. They would compete in a marathon of demagoguery and mock the people and the law. This very law has become the carpet on which the coward deputies of parliament walk. It is slaughtered by the scared and corrupt judges. It was skinned and devoured by a group of Ministry of Intelligence agents. And the the law was finally pillaged and looted out of its content by the Revolutionary Guards who pretended to be acting within its frame, but instead painted it and portrayed it as they wished.

4) ….During his reign, addiction, unemployment, and consumerism became the main parts of society. The country’s reputation on the world stage was damaged and deteriorated….

5) During the time of Seyed Ali Khamenei, hypocrisy, flattery, deception, and the lack of accountability on people and officials became the common trend and (anti) culture. The officials constantly lied and took the wrong path, and the people, by looking at them, learned and followed suit. In a place where an unbalanced person such as the president tells lies, takes away the people’s money, and burns opportunities, why would the people not do the same?

6) The experts and the elite had no choice but to take refuge in foreign lands because those who held no merit and did not deserve were at the helm. They took refuge because the rule of law was not observed…puerile management based on oil money indicated that shallow words were not the drive for the non-petroleum based economy…the country was run by those who had no expertise and knowledge. Consequently, the wealth and resources of the nation were wasted.

7) In the time of Seyed Ali Khamenei, especially in the last years of his life, people, who according to the law are entitled to criticize, protest, and launch strikes, were never given the chance to express their demands. The slightest attempt to dissent and protest was deemed as an act of hostility, espionage, and an attempt to overthrow the regime…all the protesters were subjected to torture, prison, and solitary confinement. And in ludicrous verdicts, they would receive predetermined sentences of imprisonment and execution.

8) Oh Lord, did you see how Khamenei, next to his virtues, introduced and institutionalized a concept called “seeking the approval and piety of candidates by the council of religious jurisprudence”…lest an independent and free thinker deputy be elected to the Parliament and protest against the leader’s mistakes?...This resulted in the leader to be wrapped in a halo of sanctity and made Seyyed Ali inaccessible to the people….The absolute power he built for himself does not allow anyone or any movement to engage in benevolent pathology of leadership, and as a result, corruption infiltrated the pillars of society….The country, year after year, descended into the trash of contemptible tribal ties….

9) ….State television and radio resorted to the most violent lies…and other media turned into a pump which would suck sewage instead of clean water from the well….

10) Oh God, Seyed Ali entered the arena in defense of a dim-wit like Ahmadinejad and damaged the image of an impartial leader….Khamenei shut down the roads to any change so that he could continue to control the power.

Our dear leader,

I wish you would leave a good name after your death and right the wrongs…so that tomorrow people could say: “Khamenei was a wise and enlightened leader…Although toward the end of his rule, he lost control and some harms were done…he, like Nelson Mandela, gave up key posts and paved the way for the rule of law."

If you ask where you can start, I shall answer: with one noble order from you, all the innocent prisoners can return to the arms of their loved ones….

Iran Feature: Sanctions, Iranians, and YouTube's "Life in a Day" (Esfandiary)

Negar Esfandiary writes for The Guardian of London:

On 6 July 2010, YouTube announced the launch of Life in a Day, an experimental documentary incorporating footage submitted by YouTube users, calling for "thousands of people everywhere in the world … on a single day, which is the 24 July this year, to film some aspect of their day and then post it onto YouTube so that we can use it to make a film that is a record of what it's like to be alive on that one day".

For the many active Iranian YouTube members, this was a sensational opportunity to finally contribute, participate and share in a non-political world community project through a medium they knew well. After all, it was the 2009 elections that inspired citizen filming in Iran, with YouTube serving as the main channel to the outside world. Clips of the brutality on the streets of Iran catapulted YouTube into newsrooms and signalled it as a potent news source.

It came as a slap in the face, then, to read the FAQ on the Life in a Day website: "Anyone over 13 years old can submit footage, except for residents and nationals of Iran, Syria, Cuba, Sudan, North Korea and Myanmar (Burma), and/or any other persons and entities restricted by US export controls and sanctions programmes." The "story of a single day on earth … One world, 24 hours, 6 billion perspectives" is actively boycotting 1.5 billion of the 6 billion perspectives it pursues.

Wouldn't it be great to have included these countries – to have seen something of daily life rather than the usual imagery? Surely that would have been more in step with the spirit of the project, especially given that most of the submissions will naturally end up on the cutting-room floor. Instead, this decision is meanspirited, hasty and compromises the integrity of a project intended to be truly universal, when it is in fact not open to all.

Read rest of article....

The Latest from Iran (17 August): The Green Movement, Ahmadinejad, and a "Confession"

2040 GMT: Parliament v. President. Another possible front in the escalating battle between the Majlis and the Government: Hamidreza Katouzian, the head of the Majlis Energy Commission has said that, after the Government failed to offer a charter for the National Iranian Oil Company, Parliament will vote on its own charter next week.

2030 GMT: The Cleric's Challenge. Green Voice of Freedom summarises the Ramadan speech of Ayatollah Dastgheib: "The Supreme Leader is part of the Constitution, not above it."

1845 GMT: The Battle Within. Two more articles picking up on the growing challenge to President Ahmadinejad: Abbas Djavadi for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Mahan Abedin for Asia Times Online.

1440 GMT: We have posted a separate feature, following up our earlier updates, on what appears to be a Fars News effort (possibly instigated by the Revolutionary Guard) to discredit leading reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh, detained in Evin Prison, through a supposed "confession" that Mir Hossein Mousavi lost the 2009 election.

NEW Iran Special: Have Fars (& Revolutionary Guard) Faked a Reformist “Confession” on Election?
NEW Iran Video: “His Excellency” Ahmadinejad Interviewed by George Galloway (15 August)
NEW Iran Analysis: What Has Green Movement Achieved? (Sahimi)
Iran Document: Mohammad Khatami on Religion, the Islamic Revolution, and the Republic (15 August)
Iran’s Battle Within: Ahmadinejad Appeals to Supreme Leader (Rafiee)

1335 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Mehdi Karroubi, meeting a group of young reformists, has declared, that the opposition "movement is not limited to one person, medi,a or group". Criticising the deceitful and fraudulent remarks and actions of the government and the repression of the people, he advised his listeners to see beyond partisan lines and always stay loyal to their fundamental beliefs and values.

Karroubi concluded that victory would inevitably be achieved with patience and perseverance.

1105 GMT: Reports indicate that an Iranian F4 fighter jet has crashed in the south of the country near the nuclear power plant being established at Bushehr.

1055 GMT: The University Crisis. Fars News is claiming that Abdollah Jasbi, the head of Islamic Azad University, will soon be stepping down.

If true, the development would be a setback for former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is trying to maintain influence over Iran's largest university system, with 1.3 million students, as President Ahmadinejad tries to take control of it.

1020 GMT: The Tajzadeh Election "Confession". An EA source says that the claimed video on Fars News of a detained reformist "confessing", "We lost the elections", is not from Evin Prison and could be in connection to a previous Presidential election. The source also says the audio may have been manipulated, thus the need for subtitles to give the "correct" interpretation.

1005 GMT: Fars News Special "Mostafa Tajzadeh: "We lost the elections". Fars News is pushing a video that it claims is the secretly-filmed confession of senior reformist and former Deputy Minister of Interior Mostafa Tajzadeh, speaking to fellow detainees Abdullah Ramezanzadeh and Mohsen Safai-Farahani.

Tajzadeh allegedly says, "I have experience in handling elections, so I know what happened. It is possible than one or two million votes have been displaced,we would have gotten 14-15 million votes. Not 25. We have lost the elections."

We cannot guarantee authenticity of the video. We are carrying out checks and also monitoring any reaction.

0950 GMT: War Chatter. An EA correspondent notes a discussion on Voice of America of the provocative "analysis" by Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic --- which we considered last week on EA --- projecting a likely Israeli airstrike on Iranian facilities.

0940 GMT: How to Handle the US Government and the Stoning Issue. Keyhan responds to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent statement criticising the death sentences of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned for adultery, and three other prisoners:

Hillary Clinton, the wife of former US President Bill Clinton, still has to use her husband's name despite becoming Secretary of State. Taking advantage of the exploitative and perverse principle of freedom of choice which Hillary Clinton speaks about, Bill Clinton betrayed her and had a lengthy illicit relationship with his secretary Monica Lewinski which even in the promiscuous US society became a major scandal. Furthermore, Condoleezza Rice was notorious in the media for being promiscuous in her relationships.

0920 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. An EA correspondent reports that the memoirs of former Hashemi Rafsanjani have been withdrawn from bookstands in Iran only a few weeks after they went on sale. (Could that be because of possible comparisons between the Iranian Government of the 1980s and the Iranian Government of today?)

In his introduction, Rafsanjani writes that his "hard-working staff" have copied all his diaries to CD ROM and stored them in a safe location. That's a message for Iran's security forces: if you raid the former President's offices, you won't get the original of his memoirs.

0855 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran claims that the officials of Ward 350 of Evin Prison have cancelled the mosque privileges of prisoners during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

0845 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Advar News reports that three of the 17 political prisoners who have recently ended their hunger strike --- Abdollah Momeni, Bahman Ahmadi Amoui, and Keyvan Samimi --- are still in solitary confinement.

0825 GMT: Execution (Ashtiani) Watch. Following President Ahmadinejad's assurance that cases of death sentences by stoning were "insignificant" (see 0745 GMT), the Iranian Foreign Ministry has told other countries to stay out of the discussion over Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the woman whose scheduled execution has received international attention: "Independent nations do not allow other countries to interfere in their judicial affairs....Western nations must not pressurise and hype it (the case) up....Judicial cases have precise procedures, especially when it concerns murder."

0745 GMT: We have just posted the video of the interview of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, addressed as "His Excellency", by former British MP and current Press TV host George Galloway. The two men share their agreement on Iran's nuclear programme, the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Palestine/Gaza before Galloway offers this hard-hitting challenge on "internal Iranian questions":

GALLOWAY: I have police protection in London from the Iranian opposition because of my support for your election campaign. (Galloway is referring to an incident this winter when he was heckled at a post-election meeting in the Houses of Parliament.) I mention this so you know where I'm coming from....

The events after the election were a kind of mini-political earthquake, a section of the population rejecting the results and a section of them openly attacking the Islamic system itself. Can I ask you, "What does the Green Movement mean to you?"

AHMADINEJAD: ....There are people in the Islamic Republic of Iran who continue to criticise and attack the President, and they are sure that nobody is going to harass them. They have peace of mind and they are comfortable. We really have free and democratic elections in this country, and people are the main element of elections, and people are also the executors of elections....

The other point is the conspiracy and plans of the United States and its allies. Before the elections, they had announced they would do everything possible to prevent the Government of Ahmadinejad to be re-elected....

At the end of the day, we see 14 million people have not voted for me. So it will be quite natural if you see number of demonstrators reach 14 million, but the number of the protestors was very insignificant. The people of Iran are very much united....

[The President then speaks of the opposition "within the system", describing Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami but not naming them.]

GALLOWAY: Are they still inside the system?

AHMADINEJAD: Almost in the system. Of course, the people don't want them any longer. People have not voted for them. They have been successively defeated [during the Government's] two terms....

The post-election events was on the basis of a project made in the country and it was implemented inside the country among a limited number of people. The Islamic Republic of Iran did not intend to take a harsh attitude toward them....We have managed the situation with minimum cost....

GALLOWAY: Every so often an issue comes along which is seized upon by the enemies of Iran and magnified and it becomes a heavy problem. One such is the punishment scheduled originally against a woman convicted of adultery [Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani], the so-called stoning case.

I see that President Lula from Brazil has asked Iran if he can take this woman into exile there to solve this problem. Can Iran agree to this?

AHMADINEJAD: The number of such people [sentenced to death by stoning] is very, very insignficant. I talked to a judge at the end of the day, and judges are independent. But I talked to the head of the judiciary and the judiciary does not also agree with such a thing....I think there is no need to create some trouble for President Lula to take her to Brazil. We are keen to export our technology to Brazil....I think the problem is so limited.

0655 GMT: We begin this morning with Muhammad Sahimi's analysis, "What Has the Green Movement Achieved?"

Meanwhile....

Political Prisoner Watch

Majid Pashai, a student activist, has been given a two-year prison sentence.

War Talk

Neither the Green Movement nor political prisoners is getting a look in, however, with most US-based analysts. The Atlantic magazine --- motives to be considered in 25 words or less --- has re-made itself as Command Central for discussion of an Israeli strike on Tehran.

How far can one run with such chatter? Well, former Bush Administration official John Bolton used the news that Russia will supply uranium fuel rods to Iran's first nuclear power plant at Bushehr to claim that Israel has until 21 August to attack Iran's nuclear facilities: "Once the rods are in the reactor an attack on the reactor risks spreading radiation in the air, and perhaps into the water of the Persian Gulf."

Bolton made the claim even though Bushehr has no connnection to uranium enrichment, let alone any Iranian military nuclear programme.

The Latest from Iran (16 August): Complaints

2000 GMT: Supreme Leader's Film Corner (Hijab Special). So here was the question put to Ayatollah Khamenei and other senior clerics, "If a film which is to be shown on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting has been made outside Iran and features women without hijab, what is the ruling?"

The Supreme Leader's response? "One may look at the face, neck, head, and hands of non-Muslim women."

1730 GMT: International Affairs Expert Rahimi Update. The office of first Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, who has provided some illumination with his recent entry into international affairs commentary (e.g., Australians are cattlemen and South Koreans should be slapped), has issued a clarification.

Rahimi, his staff explained was misquoted because of a "wrong translation" in his comments on "England": he meant to say that not all but only some British politicians are idiots.

1720 GMT: Surveillance and a Lawsuit. Detained journalist Isa Saharkhiz and his son Mehdi have filed a lawsuit in US Federal Court in Alexandria, Virginia against Nokia Siemens Networks and its parent companies Siemens AG and Nokia Inc., alleging human rights violations committed by the Iranian government through the aid of spying centres provided by Nokia Siemens Networks.

NEW Iran Document: Mohammad Khatami on Religion, the Islamic Revolution, and the Republic (15 August)
NEW Iran’s Battle Within: Ahmadinejad Appeals to Supreme Leader (Rafiee)
Iran Feature: Two Faces of Modernity (Vahdat)
Iran Latest (15 August): Revolutionary Guards’ “Election Tape”

1715 GMT: Parliament v. President (cont.). MP Ali Motahari, who has been amongst the leader of the challenge to President Ahmadinejad and his inner circle, has welcomed Sunday's meeting between Ahmadinejad and the heads of Parliament and the judiciary (see 0520 GMT), but he has complained that the Government is blocking files against some high-ranking officials, which might provide information on claims of corruption.

Motahari also coyly noted that some MPs accused him of "insults" against Ahmadinejad, when he only said, "The fact that the President does not recognize the law on metro allocations [Parliament had authorised $2 million for the Tehran metro but Ahmadinejad has refused to accept] opens the way to dictatorship." Motahari added, "I don't know how those handful of MPs who regularly humiliate the Majlis will answer to the people whom they are meant to represent."

1705 GMT: Rahnavard "Some in Iran Government Worse than Saddam". Appearing with her husband Mir Hossein Mousavi in a meeting with veterans of the Iran-Iraq War, Zahra Rahnavard
commented, "Unfortunately I should ask that, while you were in Iraqi prisons, did you even think that when you were freed from Saddam's prison, you would face the imprisonment of hundreds and even thousands of freedom seekers in your own country?"

This university professor referred to the complaint filed by seven senior reformist figures, all detained after the 2009 election, against military officials over last year's alleged manipulation of the vote:

Would you ever imagine that these seven freedom seekers, who I call them the seven warriors, would be imprisoned because they filed a complaint against the actions of the coup agents, while they could have filed their complaint in a just court and received a response with convincing reasons? But the government throws them in jail and does not know that this is the voice of the people, seeking justice and asking [where their votes went], that is raised by these seven brave ones in a form of a complaint. In any case, a part of the ruling power curses at Saddam, while they have treated the people worse than him.

1650 GMT: Parliament v. Ahmadinejad. Looks like the President's letter to the Supreme Letter (see separate entry) might be needed to stave off an appearance before Parliament.

Reformist MP Mohammad Reza Khabaz claims that there are now three independent but simultaneous moves by conservative factions to question Ahmadinejad: “The first move by the principlist members, which succeeded, came from the faction’s clergymen in the form of a collective warning to the President signed by 16 clerical members of the Parliament."

Khabbaz said a pro-government MP was also preparing the draft of a “critical” letter to Ahmadinejad regarding the behaviour of his aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. He claimed that the letter would ask Ahmadinejad about the reason behind his silence with respect to Mashai’s comments over Iran and Islam and his support for the controversial Chief of Staff. “I asked this MP who had been a staunch supporter of the government until two weeks ago, why was he in such a hurry to gather signatures for such a letter and he replied to me that ‘we want to do our duty and to prevent an even more radical by the parliament’. But this conservative MP only gave the letter to [his fellow] Principalist MPs to sign and did not allow the reformist MPs to join,” said Khabbaz.

Khabaz said that in a third move, the Majlis members were planning to sign a motion on calling for Ahmadinejad to be questioned over “the government’s recent acts against the law and its neglect of the parliament’s passed bills, as well as recent remarks made by Mashaei”. He described the three parallel moves against the coup government as “unprecedented” and said that conservative members in the Majlis were competing against one another in “warning and questioning” Ahmadinejad.

When asked about the number of signatories on the critical letter as well as the number of signatories to the motion to question Ahmadinejad, Khabaz said, “I am not aware of the number of signatures but there is great interest for this act and the MPs are still in the process of gathering signatures.”

A total of 74 MPs need to support the motion in order for the president to be questioned in parliament.

1640 GMT: Rumour of Day. Yet another video has been posted --- we have seen several in recent weeks --- of an alleged queue of Iranians for petrol/gasoline. This footage is supposedly from Karaj, Iran's fifth-largest city and just west of Tehran:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_C5kKBFykU[/youtube]

1635 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Kalemeh reports that leading student activist Majid Tavakoli, one of the 17 detainees who recently went on hunger strike --- has been transferred from Evin Prison to Rajai Shahr Prison.

(English translation via Negar Irani)

1615 GMT: Nuclear Tough Talk. I return from vacation to find the non-Iranian media preoccupied with yet another round of sound and fury from Tehran. From Agence France Presse (quickly followed by Associated Press):

Iran is to start building its third uranium enrichment plant in early 2011, as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad signed a new law Monday binding Tehran to pursue the controversial work of refining uranium to 20 percent.

The law, Safeguarding the Islamic Republic of Iran's Peaceful Nuclear Achievements, had been passed by lawmakers last month and it also stipulates that Tehran limit its cooperation with the UN's nuclear watchdog, state news agency IRNA reported.

Iran's atomic chief Ali Akbar Salehi told state television that the search for sites for 10 new uranium enrichment facilities "is in its final stages. The construction of one of these will begin by the end of the (current Iranian) year (to March 2011) or the start of next year, inshallah (God willing)."

Never mind that the Iranian Government has been chest-thumping about "10 new facilities" for almost a year. (Last September, the President was promising 20.) A simple re-statement is enough to start flutters in the "West".

AFP notes the response from the French Foreign Ministry: "We expect Iran to comply with its international obligations. This announcement only worsens the international community's serious concerns about Iran's nuclear programme."

1140 GMT: Nourizad’s "Last Letter" to the Supreme Leader. Mohammad Nourizad, the journalist and documentary maker, who was recently released on bail, has written his sixth and, he claims, last letter to Ayatollah Khamenei (see separate EA entries for earlier Nourizad letters).

The letter, posted on Nourizad's website, declares:

Oh Lord, in the time of Seyed Ali [Khamenei] as the Supreme Leader, the law and abiding the law by officials became insignificant and worthless. The favourite ones used the law as a ladder to climb up in power and gain opportunities. A miserable poor man is thrown into government’s prison over a million toman ($1000) unpaid debt, but the President, his Vice President, as well as some of their ministers and government managers who have taken billions in embezzlement and fraud, in a marathon of deceiving the people, brag about their shirt buttons close to their throats (a sign of being religious among the revolutionary officials) and laugh at the law and the people.

At the end of the letter, Nourizad urges the Supreme Leader, as he is getting to the end of the journey of life, to order the release of innocent political prisoners: this way he may make peace with the people and will not leave a bad name for himself in history.

1125 GMT: The Hunger Strike. Kalemeh reports that families of the 16 political prisoners who recently ended a hunger strike have again been denied visit permits, despite the reported promise of the Tehran Prosecutor General that contact would be restored. The website also claims the prisoners are being held incommunicado in solitary confinement in Ward 240.

0835 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Nima Bahador Behbahani has been released on bail. Aged 17 when he was arrested on Ashura (27 December), far from the protests, he was judged as an adult rather than a minor.

0820 GMT: Execution Watch (cont.). One hundred cities have now joined the campaign against stoning.

The interview by French philospher Bernard-Henri Levy of human rights lawyer Mohammad Mostafaei (see earlier entry) has been posted in English on The Huffington Post.

Mostafaei says of his client Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, sentenced to death --- initially by stoning --- for adultery, "She is a symbol. She is the symbol of all Iranian women who are victims of the family, the society, of their discriminatory laws."

0810 GMT: Parliament v. President. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have written the Supreme Letter (see separate entry), but that has not settled matters. "Hardline" MP Assadollah Badamchian has daid the President has no authorisation to declare that a ratified law is not in force. Badamchian said Parliament must tell Ahmadinejad that laws endorsed by the Expediency Council, headed by Hashemi Rafsanjani, are legal.

0735 GMT: Execution (Sakineh) Watch. An international group of prominent writers, singers, actors, and activists have issued an appeal for the commutation of the death sentence of Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, condemned for adultery.

French philosopher Bernard Henri Lévy has interviewed Ashtiani's lawyer, Mohammad Mostafaei, now in forced exile in Norway.

Feresteh Ghazi, interviewing an attorney involved in the cases, writes that four other women face stoning or other means of execution.

0645 GMT: The Music of Protest, the Protest of Music. Aria Fani writes about artists such as Shahin Najafi to note, "Honoring and emulating (the) tradition of protest verse, a new generation of Iranian singers and rap artists are confronting sociopolitical taboos head on and keeping lit the flame of resistance against a corrupt, totalitarian regime. Their music not only echoes their own defiance, it also voices their generation's demands."

0630 GMT: Shutting Down the Mayor? According to Kalemeh and several bloggers, Iranian authorities filtered “Khabargozarieh Shahr” (City News Agency), a website linked to Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf.

0625 GMT: We have posted the English translation of former President Mohammad Khatami's remarks on Sunday about religion, the Islamic Revolution, and the Republic.

0535 GMT: Who is Mesbah's Target? Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi has proclaimed that "not every unity is good and not every difference is bad". He said that "some who insist on wrong interpretations of Shia don't want to discuss differences, but are devils causing division".

Once upon a time, Mesbah Yazdi, seen by many as the spiritual mentor of the President, would have directed his criticisms at the opposition. Now, given his recent comments on Ahmadinejad's advisors and even the President, the target is not so clear.

0520 GMT: Reconcilation? No. The leaders of the Iran Government's three branches --- President Ahmadinejad, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, and head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani --- met Sunday.

There is little in the account of Mehr News beyond the cryptic but telling comment of Ali Larijani that there is no room for “odd interpretation” of law.

Khabar Online says the meeting lasted 2 1/2 hours. but there was "absolute silence" on the outcome.

0500 GMT: We open today with tales of two very different complaints. In a separate entry, we post Bahram Rafiee's report that President Ahmadinejad has written to the Supreme Leader about his escalating dispute with the Parliament.

Rafiee also writes for Rooz Online about a serious complaint against the Government and Ahmadinejad in Friday's open letter by the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front to the head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani.

The letter builds on the news that seven political prisoners, all senior memers of the IIPF and the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party, had filed complaints against “lawbreaking military officers during the tenth presidential election”, citing a leaked audio of a senior Revolutionary Guard commander setting out steps against the opposition before and after the election.

The IIPF wrote Larijani:

The widespread distribution of taped statements from Commander Moshfegh, a senior figure at the Sarallah base, removed the curtain from the electoral coup in the tenth presidential election and proved the truth of the green movement leaders’ claim that the election was engineered. This individual, who speaks frankly, ignorantly and with a drunkenness from power, about organizing the coup, clearly admits to actions that cannot be referred to as anything other than a coup in any school of political thought....

Now that it has been uncovered that the person who was introduced as the President reached that post through a coup (and not just fraud), lacking any kind of legal or Islamic legitimacy, it is your duty to forward the matter to the supreme court for investigation.