Gaza Update: More than 220 Dead

Latest Update: Pressing the Bombardment

And so the tragedy unfolds.

The death toll from today's Israeli attacks on Gaza is now more than 200 with at least 700 injured. The Israeli Government has made clear that the assault will continue. (Significantly, the statements have come from Defense Minister Ehud Barak --- ""The operation will go on and be intensified as long as necessary" --- and spokesmen for the Israeli Defence Forces. Outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who was less than enthusiastic about an assault, has joined in, "Israel is now seeking to wipe out the terrorism which is trying to undermine the whole area.")


The political leader in Gaza, Ismail Haniya, has made equally clear that Hamas will stand firm. A spokesman emphasized, "We will continue our struggle with absolute strength and steadfastness."

The State Department, predictably, has lined up behind Tel Aviv, blaming the deaths on Hamas' irresponsibility. More intriguing is the quick condemnation of the attacks by Palestinian Authority and West Bank leaders Mahmoud Abbas and Salam Fayyad, despite their rivalry with Hamas for political leadership throughout Palestine.

In short, the immediate effect of the Israeli operation is to suspend any other regional initiatives, such as negotiations with the Palestinian Authority to bolster the West Bank and "isolate" Gaza. Of course, Abbas and Fayyad could be playing the game of condemn the attacks in public and applaud them in private but, if that's the case, they will eventually pay the political reaper for selling out Palestinians to the Israeli offensive.

The suspension of political process is redoubled in cases such as a possible Israeli-Syrian rapprochement, given Damascus's support of Hamas. And don't expect the population of the Lebanon to be eagerly embracing a Western narrative of "freedom" that includes these developments.

Peace on Earth, Goodwill to All Men (Except in Gaza)

Five days ago, after the cessation of the truce between the Israeli Government and Hamas, Enduring America wrote:

There will be a series of bombings and targeted assassinations as the rocket attacks continue. In effect, this is a situation of deadly stalemate.

And so it goes, as Kurt Vonnegut would say. After an increase in rockets into Southern Israel, the Israeli Defense Force swung the heavy fist this morning. More than 30 missiles have killed more than 150 people so far.



We mention our prediction not to brag but to point out the near-inevitability that "the cycle of violence", that over-used but over-appropriate phrase, was going to spiral. Groups in Gaza, either directly responsible to Hamas or independent of the Gazan Government, were going to increase the firing of rockets and missiles. That scatter-gun attack, sooner or later, was going to kill an Israeli, and when it did, both the pretext and the political necessity would be established for a large-scale response from Tel Aviv. (Doubly so, when the current Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni, is locked in a tense struggle with Benyamin Netanyahu to become Prime Minister.)

And so earlier this week "Israel's cabinet approved a possible operation that could last several days". There were the near-obligatory visits by Israeli officials, including Livni, and Hamas leaders to Egypt playing the near-obligatory role of mediator for a renewed ceasefire. It was clear, however, from the statements of Livni and Netanyahu that the Israeli hammer would have to fall, at least for a deadly, symbolic period.

That has now begun. Israel will count on a window of support from many in the "gatekeeping" media in the United States and Europe; Hamas, or at least the people of Gaza, will get the sympathy of media in the Middle East and the Islamic world. Precious little will be done to ratchet down the violence as it plays out for a necessary period for both Hamas to maintain its authority in Gaza (which it will) and for key Israeli politicans --- with Livni and Netanyahu scrambling to show which one of them is tougher --- and the Israeli military to show that they are not "weak". (Doubly so, after the Lebanon debacle of 2006)

All this will be propped up by the human cost --- in damage and a handful of deaths on the Israeli side of the border, in damage and dozens if not hundreds of death on the Gazan side. The causes of this latest conflict will be set aside because, with eye-catching images of destruction, who needs to seriously consider the strategy of political isolation and economic blockade that pretty much ensured this would happen?

There is a wrinkle in this normal pattern of events, which could occur over days, possibly over weeks. Normally the US Government would have to --- reluctantly, in the case of the Bush Administration --- make some noise about trying to restore stability while allowing Israel a "decent" period of time to assert military strength.

This time, however, Washington is in transition to President Obama. He has offered the platitude that "seeing if we can build on some of the progress, at least in conversation, that's been made around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be a priority". If this fighting carries on until Inauguration Day, however, the 44th President won't be dealing with platitudes but with a foreign-policy choice foisted upon him. Does he --- in the name of "American leadership" --- put Israel-Palestine at the top of his problem-solving agenda or does he take a step aside, allowing others to make the running both as warriors and as peacemakers?

Happy Holidays, everybody....

Breaking News: Israeli Attacks Kill More than 100 in Gaza

Last week we projected, as the Hamas-Israel truce ended, that the cycle of rocket attacks and Israeli raids would spiral.

The wait is over. After an escalation in the rockets across the border, with the deadly irony that it was two Palestinian schoolgirls who were killed when a missile misfired, the Israeli Defense Forces launched their own deadly strikes against "a series of Hamas targets and infrastructure facilities".

The Israelis are leading with the claim that the Hamas police chief is dead. Information from medical sources and officials in Palestine indicate 120 have been killed and more than 250 wounded.

UPDATE: Scott has posted a more in-depth analysis here.

A Special Christmas Gift: Palin in 2020

I hasten to add that the gift does not come from Enduring America but from America's foremost columnist of sense and sensibility, Ms Anne Coulter:

Sarah Palin wins HUMAN EVENTS’ prestigious “Conservative of the Year” Award for 2008 for her genius at annoying all the right people. The last woman to get liberals this hot under the collar would have been … let's see now … oh, yeah: Me!

Exalting "our beauteous Sarah", our beauteous Ann spends 2000+ words saying nothing about Palin on the economy, international affairs, social issues, or even the latest Jolie-Aniston confrontation. Instead, Palin's qualifications come via the iniquities of the "left-wing" press: "discombobulated and angry", filled with "anti-religious hysteria", and "decid[ing] that a woman with children could not handle the stress of higher office".

OK, it's Ann Coulter, who could only exist as a "Legal Affairs Correspondent" or any other kind of Correspondent in the mythical polarised US of common-sense Americans fending off the evil liberals ruining the country. Still, it's quite amusing to see how Ann blurts one moment, "Who cares if Palin was qualified to be President?", and then in the next explains how Beauteous Sarah will assume that office.

She will do so by "becoming older and wiser", "being a good governor, tending to her children so none of them turn out like Ron Reagan Jr., and reading everything Phyllis Schlafly, Thomas Sowell, [and] Ronald Reagan have ever written:

Democrats may have a fleet of women politicians, but they don’t have a deep bench of attractive ones.

Thanks, Ann, for the Greatest Gift of All. Reading this supposed formula for Republican success, I'll sleep a little sounder tonight thinking that the GOP implosion 0f 2008 --- with all its humourous fallout --- may be with us for just a while longer.

Maybe even until 2020.

Afghanistan: Stiffening Our Allies to Win the War

Listen up, all you sceptics about our strategy in Afghanistan. We've got a secret to win this war:

Viagra.

You heard right --- the gift that keeps on giving is going to ensure the locals flock to our side to whip the Taliban. Joby Warrick, in the middle of an extended I-heart-the-US-military series for The Washington Post, explains:



The Afghan chieftain looked older than his 60-odd years, and his bearded face bore the creases of a man burdened with duties as tribal patriarch and husband to four younger women. His visitor, a CIA officer, saw an opportunity, and reached into his bag for a small gift.

Four blue pills. Viagra.

"Take one of these. You'll love it," the officer said. Compliments of Uncle Sam.

The enticement worked. The officer, who described the encounter, returned four days later to an enthusiastic reception. The grinning chief offered up a bonanza of information about Taliban movements and supply routes -- followed by a request for more pills.

Warrick, in serious journalist mode, is careful to seriously intone that these "tactics and operations...are largely classified". But he can seriously assure us that "this is how some crucial battles in Afghanistan are fought and won".

So if you're lying awake at night, not because of your own Viagra-related concerns but because you might think that we're on the verge of a pretty nasty confrontation in Afghanistan in 2009, don't wonder why journalists have come this far from talk of reconstruction through schools, community organisations, electricity, and roads.

Just keep the faith in the little blue pills:

After a long conversation through an interpreter, the retired operator began to probe for ways to win the man's loyalty. A discussion of the man's family and many wives provided inspiration. Once it was established that the man was in good health, the pills were offered and accepted.

Four days later, when the Americans returned, the gift had worked its magic, the operative recalled.

"He came up to us beaming," the official said. "He said, 'You are a great man.' "

"And after that we could do whatever we wanted in his area."