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Sunday
Dec282008

Absorbing The Lessons Of The Lebanon War

David Axe has a short piece up on Danger Room which engages with one of the questions I've had on my mind this past couple of days- is Hamas aiming to be in a position to give Israel the kind of black eye it was dealt by Hezbollah during the 2006 invasion of Lebanon?:
If Israel ground forces were to roll into Gaza, they would face 15,000 fighters who have absorbed the lessons of the Lebanon War, Haaretz claims. "For two years Hamas, with Iranian assistance, has been working hard on developing its military power, using Hezbollah as a model."

Like Haaretz I don't doubt that Israel could take Gaza, but any ground invasion seems likely to entail IDF casualties. How long would the Israeli leadership have to prove that any move into Gaza wasn't a repeat of 2006?



Sunday
Dec282008

Update on Muntazar al-Zaidi: Rallies in Tehran and Washington

The sad reality is that there is almost nothing to report on Muntazar al-Zaidi's case. There is total silence in advance of the trial date of 31 December.

The only story of note in the last 72 hours has been the protest of Iranians near Tehran University before Friday prayers. Even this requires a bit of searching, as only the BBC to my knowledge has provided coverage.

It will be interesting to see if the press gives any attention to a demonstration in a much different part of the world, Monday's rally in front of the Iraqi Consulate in Washington DC.
Sunday
Dec282008

Gaza: Israel's Attacks 24 Hours Later

Late Night Update: Pressing the Bombardment

A five-step guide to understanding the events of the last 24 hours and what is likely to happen in the next few days:

1. THE ISRAELI OBJECTIVE: BREAK THE HAMAS SECURITY SERVICES, PUNISH THE POPULATION

The rocket and mortar firings into southern Israel were not the cause of the Israeli action. They were the pretext.



This is not to assert the "innocence" of Hamas and any other Palestinian groups sending those rockets. This is not to ignore that more than 60 rockets were launched on Wednesday. It is not to deny that missiles cause damage --- physical, psychological, and economic.

However, Daniel Levy asserts that from 19 June until yesterday, there was not one Israeli fatality from a Hamas attack, and life was improving in border cities like Sderot. (I would be interested to know of any evidence countering this claim.)

The Israeli military operation, therefore, was not a defensive response to an imminent Hamas threat. It was not directed against those sending the rockets into southern Israel. Instead, it was designed to take out as many Hamas security personnel as possible: 32 police stations were attacked yesterday, and 2/3 of the casualties were Palestinian policemen.

That choice of targets, in turn, points to an Israeli decision to hit built-up areas, places where civilians would also be killed and wounded. Police stations are usually located in the centre of towns and communities, not in isolated "military" areas. The New York Times records the outcome:

The center of Gaza City was a scene of chaotic horror, with rubble everywhere, sirens wailing, and women shrieking as dozens of mutilated bodies were laid out on the pavement and in the lobby of Shifa Hospital so that family members could identify them.

Or, in the words of Sami Abdel-Shafi in The Independent:

Mobile phones did not work, because of electricity outages and the flood of attempted calls. I flipped the electricity generator on so that we could watch the news. We wanted to understand what was going on in our own neighbourhood. However, this was impossible. Israeli surveillance drones flew overhead, scrambling the reception. All I could do was step outside, where I found crowds of frantic people, lines of rising smoke and the smell of charred buildings and bodies that lay around targeted sites nearby. Somebody said the bombs had been launched in parallel raids over the entire Gaza Strip. What was the target here? Perhaps a police station about 200 metres away. Other bombs annihilated blocks less than a kilometre away, where one of the main police training centres stood. When the strikes began, a graduation ceremony for more than 100 recruits in a civil law enforcement programme was under way. These were the young men trained to organise traffic, instil civil safety and maintain law and order. Many of them were killed, it is said, in addition to the Gaza Strip's police chief.

The attacks are continuing today, with the headquarters of Al-Aqsa Broadcasting and a mosque hit and a police station and a factory reportedly targeted. They are likely to continue throughout the week unless Hamas is unexpectedly broken or asks for a renewed cease-fire.

The lingering issue is whether Israel ups its assault --- and thus the political ante --- by sending in ground forces.

2. THE US POSITION: GO, ISRAEL, GO

The BBC World Service politely called it a "green light" for the Israeli operation. More bluntly, the Bush Administration is trying in its last days to provide political cover for the Israeli attempt to break Hamas.

The State Department's press briefing could not have been more blatantly. When Gordon Johndroe said, "These people are nothing but thugs,” he wasn't talking about the military personnel killing hundreds on the ground below. Instead, it was evident --- and thus acceptable --- that “Israel is going to defend its people against terrorists like Hamas”.

The American position is a logical extension of its ongoing effort, since Hamas changed the political equation by winning elections in Gaza, to isolate the organisation and encourage either a takeover by the Palestinian Administration or another form of "regime change". The paradox, of course, is that this Israeli operation makes this far less likely because....

3. HAMAS APPEARS TO BE SECURE

Amidst the death and destruction in Gaza, the political beneficiary is the Hamas leadership. That's not to say that the de facto Prime Minister, Ismail Haniya, is welcoming the pain being inflicted on the population, but --- if he avoids assassination by Israeli missile --- he can make statements about the resolve of his Government and assert that Hamas is still in control. (I would think it's a possibility that Haniya and his advisors, deciding not to renew the truce with Israel, calculated that this would be the Israeli response and that it would have the effect of rallying Gazans behind their leadership.)

Indeed, the longer that Hamas can hold out amidst the bombardment, it's not a question of whether they are overthrown but whether they have "won" by not being toppled.

4. THE ARAB RESPONSE: WHAT ARAB RESPONSE?

This one's easy to set out: at the Governmental level, the Arab world are bystanders right now.

The Arab League has postponed its "emergency session" from Sunday to Wednesday on the grounds that Arab ministers are occupied in regular meetings. That's an excuse that even my nine-year-old daughter could shred in a heartbeat.

None of those in power from Cairo to Riyadh to Amman wants to see Israel succeed but none of them want to tilt fully behind a Hamas leadership which is in rivalry with the Palestinian authority. So do nothing and let the Israelis make difficulties for themselves.

5. SIDE EFFECTS: THE US, EUROPE, AND THE UNITED NATIONS

For those looking at the world beyond Gaza, the European Union issued one of the most telling statements yesterday. It unequivocally condemned attacks from all sides and called for an immediate cessation.

Of course, that call will have little effect upon Israel or rocketeers in Gaza. However, given the US role in supporting the Israeli assault, this is a clear signal that the Europeans no longer want to be pulled along in a de facto "Western" acceptance of conflict.

A symbolic smackdown to a Bush Administration that faced down "Europe" to get its ill-fated war in Iraq in 2003 or a longer-term sign of a diverging European foreign policy from that of Washington? That may depend on what responding signals President Obama offers in the early days of his Administration.

Meanwhile, keep your eyes on the United Nations Security Council, which followed its emergency meeting early this morning with its own call for a cessation to hostilities. Since Israel is unlikely to heed that demand, the issue will be whether a cease-fire resolution will be put before the Security Council, putting "Europe" (will it continue to stand apart from the US?), Britain (dare it not break from Washington?), and the US (does it cast its veto and effectively endorse more attacks?) to the test.
Sunday
Dec282008

Holiday Greetings: Up Against the Wall, Redneck Mother

Quite a few readers have asked what it's like to be spending the holidays back in Georgia in the American South. You know, a place where we don't call it the American Civil War but The War of Northern Aggression or The Sacred Defense Against the Yankee Invader.

I wasn't sure how to answer, then I got this inspiration listening to my favourite station, Outlaw Radio:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcBOcwgb4OA[/youtube]
Sunday
Dec282008

Gaza Update (6 a.m. Israel/Palestine; 11 p.m. Eastern US): How Far Will Israel Go?

Latest Update: Pressing the Bombardment



The basics of today's developments are unsurprising. Given the lack of political and economic progress, the truce was going to lapse last Friday between Hamas and Israel. There were going to be rockets and mortars fired into southern Israel --- even during the six-month truce, there were rockets and mortars sent across the border. Israel was going to use one or more of those rockets and mortars as the rationale for a military assault.

Israel was going to launch that assault partly because of the dynamics of domestic politics and the electoral campaign. More importantly, it was going to do so to put pressure on Hamas, if not to break the organisation and ensure that it was overthrown in Gaza.

Yet, for all this inevitability --- which includes the inevitability of the deaths of civilians as well as fighters --- significant questions arise from today.



The most immediate concerns how far Israel wants to take its attempt to break Hamas. The scale of the death toll, the largest in a single day in Gaza since 1967, is both unexpected and revealing. Set aside the hypocrisy about wanting to prevent civilian casualties. This was not a surgical strike against Hamas militants.

This was a systematic attempt to damage the political and military infrastructure of the organisation and, at the same time, to punish the population. That punishment, provoking fear, disillusionment, and panic, might also provoke the anger leading Gazans to turn against the Hamas leadership.

I think that is a miscalculation, however, especially in the opening phase of operations when the population is more likely to rally behind its Government and against perceived aggressor. So Israel faces the next step: does it support air attacks with a ground invasion?

The easy answer is yes. A show of force will include tanks across the border. However, that show of force is complicated somewhat by Israel's last experience of sustained ground operations to try and separate the population from an enemy organisation --- the campaign against Hezbollah in 2006.

That attempt failed spectacularly, as Hezbollah grew stronger inside Lebanon and the Israeli military and political leadership was blamed for miscalculation. A second mistake in three years, getting bogged down in a bloody occupation of Gaza, is not a welcome prospect even for the most hawkish of Israelis.
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