Stories to Watch After Christmas: Afghanistan and Somalia

AFGHANISTAN SURGE: THE US MAKES IT FIRST MOVE

From McClatchy News Services:

The U.S. Marines are considering requesting two battalions and a combat aviation unit in Taliban-controlled southern Afghanistan, which would be the largest proposed expansion of U.S. troops in the volatile region, two senior Marine commanders.


If approved, the move would involve roughly 3,000 Marines and support staff, and it would mark the Marines' shift from the once-restive Anbar province in Iraq to places such as Helmand and Farah provinces in southern Afghanistan, which U.S. and NATO officials concede that Taliban forces have overrun.

BUT IN EASTERN AFGHANISTAN, IT'S THE TALIBAN IN CONTROL

From The New York Times:

Attacks provide the latest evidence of how extensively militants now rule the critical region east of the Khyber Pass, the narrow cut through the mountains on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border that has been a strategic trade and military gateway since the time of Alexander the Great.

The area encompasses what is officially known as the Khyber Agency, which is adjacent to Peshawar and is one of a handful of lawless tribal districts on the border. But security in Khyber has deteriorated further in recent months with the emergence of a brash young Taliban commander who calls news conferences to thumb his nose at NATO forces, as well as with public fury over deadly missile attacks by American remotely piloted aircraft.

SOMALIA: THE LOST AMERICAN INTERVENTION

Two years after the US-prompted regime change that forced the Islamic Courts out of power in Mogadishu, this from The Washington Post:

Advisers to Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf said Wednesday that he would yield to mounting internal and international pressure and resign over the weekend, but officials close to him insisted the situation remained dynamic.

Talk of Yusuf's impending resignation came as the prime minister he appointed last week quit, saying he wanted to end the political infighting that has paralyzed Somalia's transitional government as an Islamist militia has advanced across the southern half of the country.

From the Iraq Archives: When is Permanent not Permanent? (21 June 2008)

In a week when Secretary of Defense Robert Gates predicted that "several tens of thousands of American troops" will be staying in Iraq beyond 2011 and when The New York Times finally noticed the "disquieting talk in Washington", here is a Watching America blog from June that was already foreseeing American withdrawal as a necessary but partial fiction:

WHEN IS PERMANENT NOT PERMANENT? THE US BASES IN IRAQ

Last Friday morning the BBC's flagship radio programme, Today, turned its eagle-eyed attention to a proposed agreement between the US and Iraqi Governments. This which would provide a mandate for the continued presence of the American military, replacing the current UN-sanctioned mandate which expires at the end of 2008.


What ensued was a propaganda piece which not verged on falsehood but sprinted over the line. Correspondent Jim Muir, evaluating the situation from deep inside the Green Zone, assured listeners that the "Status of Forces" agreement was essential to prevent Iraq from falling into disorder. A platform was then offered to retired General Jack Keane, the man "behind the surge strategy in Iraq", to lay down the law, so to speak.

Any Iraqi opposition, Keane assured, was due to the "hubris" of the apparent Iraqi success in establishing control of areas such as Basra and Sadr City. Iraqi security forces still were in need of American support. (Thus, as the expertise of Jon Stewart's The Daily Show has long noted, the perfect argument: If there is instability in Iraq, we need to put in more American forces; if there is some sign of stability, we need to keep those forces there.)

Having put America's supposed ally in its place, Keane could then add that there was no provision in the agreement --- none whatsoever --- for the US to carry out aerial operations without the authorisation of the Iraqi Government. No provision, none whatsoever, for the exemption of American military forces from Iraqi law.

The only problem is that Keane was blatantly lying. And the BBC, had it had the integrity that it claimed in its report, could easily have called up the evidence to show he was lying.

They could have done so because, the day before their report, Patrick Cockburn of the Independent had spectacularly exposed the provisions of the agreement. The US Government is seeking an indefinite right to use more than 50 bases throughout Iraq. And (take note, General Keane) "American negotiators are also demanding immunity from Iraqi law for US troops and contractors, and a free hand to carry out arrests and conduct military activities in Iraq without consulting the Baghdad government".

(Cockburn had a bit more the following day. Far from this being a free-and-fair negotiation, the US Government was threatening a "freeze" on $50 billion of Iraqi assets in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The funds are linked to $20 billion in outstanding court judgements in the US against the Iraqi Government. Currently the US Government has kept them "immune" from seizure, but they are threatening to revoke this immunity if there is a hitch in the negotations over the Status of Forces Agreement.)

All credit to Cockburn for pulling this together, but this is far from a new story. The negotiation has been going on for months and, as was discussed during the most recent Petraeus-Crocker show before the US Congress, the Bush Administration is avoiding any reference to the agreement as a "treaty" to avoid putting it up for Congressional approval.

The story has taken on new impetus, however, not just because of the 31 July deadline set for its completion but because of the growing opposition --- private and public --- in Iraq. Unnoticed by most media outlets in the US and Britain, thousands of Iraqis have been taking to the street in demonstrations. Leading clerics in Iraq, including Ayatollah Sistani and Grand Ayatollah Mudaressi, have not only objected but warned of "a popular uprising". The issue may lay behind a serious split in the Iraqi Government, with former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari being expelled from current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Dawa Party.

And, in the latest development, the Status of Forces Agreement now appears to be playing into the hands of Iran. Only last month, the US Government spin was that Iraqi officials were travelling to Tehran to chastise the Iranians for providing weapons to insurgents. Well, Prime Minister al-Maliki was in Iran last week and --- guess what? --- Iranian duplicity wasn't the Number One item on his agenda.

Instead, al-Maliki is all but pleading with the Iranians to lift their opposition to the agreement, assuring Tehran that “we will not allow Iraq to become a platform for harming the security of Iran and its neighbors”. Significantly, according to reports of the talks, the Iraqi delegation was discussing with Iranian counterparts increased cooperation on issues such as border control and intelligence.

The SOFA episode is the ultimate demonstration, as the Bush Administration approaches its end, of the "hubris" not of Iraqi but American over-confidence. To the end, the US is trying to play a military hand in the belief that the presence of its equipment and troops assures power (not to the Iraqis, I hasten to add, but to Washington). The game, however, is now more political than military. As Iraqi support --- on the street, amongst the clerics, and within political factions --- erodes for the purported US "cooperation", American force is now a bystander. A far-from-powerless bystander, to be sure, but still a bystander as the "new Iraq" emerges in a complex local and regional environment that can no longer be organised by agreements despatched from Washington.

Very Best of Holiday Wishes from Enduring America

Forgive the personal nature of this blog, but I am spending it in hospital with my wife's mother, a very brave woman. Not the optimal holiday, but a reminder to me of the importance of family.

The very best of holidays to each of you.

And now for the greatest Christmas song ever....

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff3aoSyYOVs&feature=related[/youtube]

Iraq: Showdown Averted?

Iraq-watchers can take a deep breath, at least for a few days. It looks like the al-Maliki Government has avoided an immediate crisis through a bit of manoeuvring, a bit of luck, and a bit of a climbdown.


First, the manoeuvring and the luck. The Iraqi Parliament didn't push the Government to the wall over the extension agreement setting a date of 31 May 2009 for the withdrawal of troops from Britain and five other countries. Having voted the initial agreement down on the weekend and then postponed a vote on Monday, the Parliament accepted that the withdrawal could be set by a Government resolution.

Members made their point that al-Malilki couldn't just railroad his proposals through. The luck for the Government came in the thank-you gift they could offer to Shia'a and Kurdish Parliamentarians: the departure of the Sunni Speaker of Parliament, Mahmud al-Mashhadani.

The Speaker was on shaky ground with his flamboyant, unpredictable behaviour, including repeated threats to resign. Last week, however, he went too far, trying to cut off discussion of the case of shoe-thrower Mantazer al-Zaidi and calling his colleagues "the worst Parliament in the world".

So, for the moment, the Government and Parliament each can claim maintenance of some authority, an uneasy but essential compromise in the run-up to elections.

Now for the Government climb-down. The 24 Interior Ministry officials arrested last week on allegations of developing a post-Baathist political party have now been bailed on lesser charges of preparing false documents.

The episode has turned into a struggle between al-Maliki and Co. and the Minister of the Interior, Javad al-Bulani, an "independent" (in both party affiliation and approach) Shi'a politician. If the arrests were political score-settling, al-Bulani's public position, the outcry from other parties, and American concern all clipped the Prime Minister's wings.

And now? Well, one might suggest a few days of uneasy truces all round.

Those few days may be turn out to be exactly one week, however. That's when Muntazar al-Zaidi comes to trial --- if he does not plead guilty, letting al-Maliki off the political hook, then the manoeuvres will start anew.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad To Deliver Channel 4's Alternative Christmas Message

Just dragging myself away from playing Guitar Hero World Tour with the family for long enough to inform our readers that Channel 4's alternative Queen's Speech tomorrow will be delivered by none other than Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Unlike in previous years it won't air at the same time as the Queen's offering, instead airing at 7.15pm. Sadly Channel 4's website is down for maintenance so I can't provide you with a link to watch online. For now you'll have to settle for the full text, courtesy of The Times.

[Photo via Wikimedia]