Mr Obama's World: Latest Alerts in US Foreign Policy (16 February)

Latest Post: Pakistan - Can You Balance Sharia and Missiles?
Latest Post: The Difficulties for Washington’s Diplomatic Engagement with Tehran
Latest Post: The Shock of Hypocrisy: US Operating From Within Pakistan

Current  Obamameter Reading: Fair, Possible Rumbles from South Later



9p.m. Missed this from earlier today: Italy has said it will not take any released detainees from Guantanamo Bay, further denting the Obama strategy of having "third countries" take the "hard cases" from the facility.

Evening update (6 p.m. GMT): White House spokesman Robert Gibbs has said President Obama will make a decision on US troop levels in Afghanistan "within days", not weeks.

1 p.m. Hillary Clinton has started his Asian tour in Tokyo with warm words for the "vitally important" US-Japan alliance: "Its foundation has been and always will be a commitment to our shared security and prosperity, but we also know that we have to work together to address the global financial crisis, which is affecting all of us."

12:25 p.m. A second fatal roadside bomb in Iraq today has killed four Shi'a pilgrims on a bus in eastern Baghdad. The first bomb killed four in Sadr City.

11:15 a.m. The Kyrgyzstan Government has followed up its declaration that it will close the US airbase in the country by sending the necessary documents to Parliament.

8:40 a.m. A witness says 20 more bodies from this morning's US airstrike in northwestern Pakistan have been found, bringing the death toll to at least 30. CNN is reporting at least 15 confirmed deaths.

8:15 a.m. A roadside bomb has killed four passengers on a bus in the Baghdad district of Sadr City.

In a barely-noticed incident on Sunday, a US soldier was killed by a roadside bomb in southern Iraq, the fifth American combat facility in the past week.

7:45 a.m. In another sign of the Obama Administration's move for co-operation with China, Chinese state media is reporting that high-level military talks will resume at the end of February. The two-day "informal" dialogue will be between a U.S. assistant secretary of defense and a deputy chief of the Chinese army.

6:50 a.m. Engaging Iran via Afghanistan. The New York Times usefully notes a Sunday statement on an Afghan TV station by US envoy Richard Holbrooke: “It is absolutely clear that Iran plays an important role in Afghanistan. They have a legitimate role to play in this region, as do all of Afghanistan’s neighbors.”

6:40 a.m. Updates on US airstrikes: At least 12 people killed in Pakistan's Kurram region; US and Afghan officials claim nine militants, including the prominent leader Mullah Dastagir, killed in a raid Sunday night.

Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 1 a.m. Washington): No major developments, but yesterday's announcement in Kabul of Afghanistan participation in local security discussions with the US and in the strategic review in Washington appears to be a masterful political move, at least for now.

For President Obama and his envoy Richard Holbrooke, the measures give them some freedom of manoeuvre against military pressure for an immediate surge in forces. For Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai (pictured), it relieves Washington's direct pressure upon him and gives him a domestic political boost, with US recognition of his assertion of Afghan sovereignty.

In Pakistan, the story of US missile strikes --- which we updated last night with the not-so-surprising revelation that the American drones were flying from US bases inside the country --- runs and runs. Two more missiles were fired at "militant targets" this morning. Up to 10 people are reported killed.

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton enters the first day of substantive talks on her Asian tour, beginning in Japan.

In Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez has declared victory in a referendum which would enable to run for a third six-year term in 2013. With 94 percent of votes counted, the measure was favoured by more than 54 percent of voters. Chavez's victory will drive the "mainstream" US media such as The Washington Post crazy; the Obama Administration's reaction is likely to be more measured.

Mr Obama's World: Latest Alerts in US Foreign Policy (15 February)

Latest Post: The Shock of Hypocrisy: US Operating From Within Pakistan



5 p.m. Finally, movement from the Holbrooke-Karzai discussions in Afghanistan. At a joint news conference, they announced a declaration aimed at reducing civilian deaths from US and NATO military operations.

According to Al Jazeera, "Afghan security personnel will play a greater role in the planning and undertaking of night time attacks, searches and operations in populated areas, particularly in tribal regions." An Afghan delegation will join the strategic review, chaired by Holbrooke (pictured), in Washington.
Afternoon Update (4:30 p.m.): Militants in Pakistan's Swat Valley have called a 10-day cease-fire. Peace talks are underway that could establish sharia law throughout the area.

Pakistani officials say the US is "alarmed" by the possibility that sharia law will be accepted and is privately advocating large-scale deployment of Pakistani troops in the region.

Morning Update (6:25 a.m. GMT; 1:25 a.m. GMT): The lead item is a non-update. There is still no news out of the conversations yesterday between US envoy Richard Holbrooke and Afghan President Hamid Karzai, which come after a period of tension between Washington and the Afghan Government and amidst talk of an increased US military presence.

The only possible signal came from Admiral Mike Mullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who told The Washington Post:

We can send more troops. We can kill or capture all the Taliban and al-Qaeda leaders we can find - and we should. But until we prove capable, with the help of our allies and Afghan partners, of safeguarding the population, we will never know a peaceful, prosperous Afghanistan. Lose the people's trust, and we lose the war.

It is unclear whether Mullen's words were meant as a reassurance to Karzai or a wider appeal to other Afghan leaders, NATO allies, and opinion in Washington as the US military presses for a new strategic approach.

Mr Obama's World: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (14 February)

Related Post: “You” Are Corrupt, “We” Just Misplace Things (Like Top-Secret Laptops)
Related Post: Tarnished by the Black Water of Violence, Abuse, Murder? Change Your Brand Name….
Related Post: The “New Iraq”, Up Close and Ugly: A Report from Fallujah

Current Obamameter Reading: Settled with Distant Turbulence



7:15 p.m. What happened in today's meeting between US envoy Richard Holbrooke and Afghan President Hamid Karzai?

No, really, what happened?

2:15 p.m. How to Miss a Story. Reuters declares, "Lavrov welcomes U.S. signals on missile shield". Which is true, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, "It's not too late [to discuss the American deployment in Eastern Europe. We could sit down at the negotiating table and evaluate the situation."

The wider story, however, is Washington's attempt to link discussions on missile defence to a changed Russian position on support for Iran's nuclear programme. And Lavrov made no indication that Moscow would make such a connection.

11 a.m. Thousands of people have gathered in Martyrs' Square in Beirut to commemorate the fourth anniversary of the assassination of Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri.

8 a.m. GMT: Just in case you missed it late night, we've passed on the helpful warning in Human Events that "Iran is Taking Over America".

Morning Update (7:15 a.m. GMT; 2:15 a.m. Washington): Two days after US envoy Richard Holbrooke left Pakistan and amidst public confirmation that the US is using bases within the country for its missile strikes (more on that later), news is coming in of an aerial attack which has killed 25 people in South Waziristan. The US military is claiming the dead were "Al Qa'eda-linked" militants.

Diplomatic headlines are still taken up by the outline of US policy on North Korea by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Speaking on Friday before her departure to East Asia, she laid out the "unclenched fist" formula which is already being applied to Iran:

If North Korea is genuinely prepared to completely and verifiably eliminate their nuclear weapons program, the Obama administration will be willing to normalize bilateral relations, replace the peninsula's long-standing armistice agreements with a permanent peace treaty and assist in meeting the energy and other economic needs of the North Korean people.

Clinton then added the warning to Pyongyang "to avoid any provocative action or unhelpful rhetoric toward South Korea".

Clinton also restated the Obama Administration's line on China: no need for tension over economic matters but the US would continue to raise the issues of the environment and human rights.

Exclusive: How Iran is Taking Over America

Once it was Reds under the Bed. Now it's the Mullahs Hiding behind the Curtains.

Human Events sounds the warning, exposing all the pseudo-Americans who are actually working for Tehran. Our only qualm with this article is that --- as it outed Trita Parsi, Juan Cole, and Gary Sick, all of whom we have featured on this website --- somehow it forgot to mention Enduring America amongst the threats to Mr and Mrs USA.

Why U.S. Policy Leans Too Close to Terrorist Appeasement
Clare M. Lopez

The Obama administration has lost no time extending an outstretched hand to Iran’s terrorist regime, just as promised during the election campaign. The president assured the mullahs of his pacific intentions in a January 2009 interview on al-Arabiya TV, asking nothing more than that Iran unclench its fist.

Secretary of State Clinton echoed Obama after an early February 2009 meeting with British Foreign Secretary David Miliband. Absent from either of their comments was any mention of Tehran’s obligations before the world community to comply with United Nations resolutions to immediately and verifiably suspend all nuclear enrichment activity. Also missing was any criticism of Iran’s massive support for terrorist organizations such as Hamas, Hizballah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad -- not to mention its long-standing affiliation with al-Qa’eda.

As for introduction of a U.N. resolution to condemn Iran for repeated incitement to genocide of a fellow U.N. member state -- the State of Israel -- somehow that didn’t come up either. Holding to account a regime that stones girls to death for being raped, hangs gays from construction cranes, and executes juveniles also doesn’t seem central to the new agenda. Perhaps we missed it and the United States actually signed on to the Cairo Declaration. For those who don’t remember that ignominious piece of paper, it is the 1990 opt-out by Muslim states from the U.N. Declaration on Human Rights.

An 8 February 2009 speech by Vice President Joe Biden (in Munich, of all places) did note U.S. readiness to take pre-emptive action against Iran if it does not abandon its nuclear ambitions and support for terrorism, but also repeated that the U.S. is open to talks. This is what your mother always warned you against: mixed signals.

Under the Bush administration we had no Iran policy. Now, our policy leans too close to appeasement. How did it get this way?

America’s foreign policy toward Iran did not reach this level of malleability overnight or by accident. A well-organized plan to infiltrate and influence U.S. policymakers at the highest levels has been operating on American soil for well over a decade. Conceived in Tehran under the direct authority of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the plan set out to create a network of top U.S. academics, diplomats, journalists, NGOs, and think tanks that would advocate a policy of appeasement towards Iran. Iran’s top strategic objective has always been to buy time for its nuclear weapons program, which now is well along in developing the three critical components: enriched uranium, warhead weaponization, and a credible missile delivery system.

Beginning in the late 1990s, a de facto alliance between Muslim Brotherhood fronts in the U.S. (such as CAIR -- the Council on Islamic American Relations) and frank Tehran regime advocates like the American-Iranian Council (AIC) openly began to promote public support for a U.S. foreign policy based on the favored positions of the Islamic Republic. In 2002, a new pro-Iran group was formed by a young Swedish-Iranian immigrant named Trita Parsi. That group, the National Iranian-American Council (NIAC) quickly established itself as the nexus of a growing network of individuals and organizations that openly lobby for a U.S. policy of acquiescence, diplomacy, incentives, and negotiations with the Tehran regime -- while strongly opposing coercive diplomacy, sanctions, or threat of military action. Part and parcel of this advocacy on behalf of Tehran is a pattern of antipathy towards Israel that minimizes its security concerns and dismisses its legitimate defense needs.

Under Parsi, who is closely connected to the Tehran regime, the NIAC network has expanded to include a growing number of new groups. Some of them -- such as The Campaign Against Sanctions and Military Intervention in Iran (CASMII) -- are NIAC clones. CASMII was founded in December 2005 to oppose all forms of pressure on Iran. Others, such as the Center for a New American Security (CNAS, founded in February 2007) play the role of useful idiots. CNAS had Dr. Susan Rice, the Obama administration’s appointee as Ambassador to the UN, on its Board of Directors.

Dr. Vali Nasr, who has been named senior advisor to U.S. Afghanistan/Pakistan envoy Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, was one of the authors of a September 2008 CNAS publication called Iran: Assessing U.S. Strategic Options. Nasr’s chapter, "The Implications of Military Confrontation with Iran," urged the U.S. to take the military option for dealing with Iran off the table and instead focus on how best to accommodate Tehran’s rising power in the Middle East region. The Campaign for a New American Policy on Iran (CNAPI) launched its pro-Iran activities with a cross-country event called The Folly of Attacking Iran Tour, which crisscrossed the U.S. in February and March 2008.

The American Foreign Policy Project (AFPP) was founded in December 2008 with an “experts list” that reads like a remix of other CAIR and NIAC affiliates, including former Ambassadors Thomas Pickering, James Dobbins, and William Miller plus well-known academic figures such as Professors Gary G. Sick of Columbia University and Juan R. Cole of the University of Michigan. These groups’ interlocking Boards of Advisors, Directors, and Experts include many other nationally-known figures from public policy and international business arenas, including some big oil companies.

All are associated in one way or another with Trita Parsi and NIAC and all advocate a policy of accommodation with Iran.

The Iranian regime makes no attempt to disguise its links to this network. NIAC, for instance, was openly mentioned in the 7 December 2007 issue of the government-controlled Aftab News, where the NIAC network was called the regime’s “Iran lobby in the U.S.” In March 2007, the Fars News daily described NIAC as ‘a non-profit’ organization with headquarters in Washington, D.C. that was established to counter the influence of AIPAC [the American-Israeli Political Action Committee, a legal lobby group] and to enlist the support of Iranian expatriates living in the U.S. in order to ‘penetrate U.S. politics.’

Maneuvering behind Washington, D.C. policymaking scenes to exert influence on U.S. decision makers is pretty standard for a host of legitimate interest groups, including many foreign countries. Concern is indicated, however, when the guiding influence behind such maneuvering emanates from the top levels of a regime like Iran’s that holds top spot on the Department of State’s state sponsors of terror list, makes no secret of its hatred and enmity for the U.S. and our ally Israel, and acts in myriad ways to support those who have assassinated, held, kidnapped, killed, and tortured American civilians and military over a 30-year period. The expanding influence of this pro-Iran lobby on U.S. foreign policy attests to a determined and sophisticated operation that serves only the interests of regime implacably hostile to America’s own national security interests.

Ms. Lopez is the Vice President of the Intelligence Summit and a professor at the Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies.

Mr Obama's World: Alerts in US Foreign Policy (13 February)

Latest Post: Analysing the Iran (Non-)Threat
Related Post: US Government Documents - Proof of “Ghost Detention”, Torture, Death
Related Post: US Director of National Intelligence - No Evidence that Iran Has Restarted Nuclear Weapons Programme
Related Post: Afghanistan - Karzai Talks Back to Washington



10 p.m. And yet more manoeuvring on Iran. The US State Department has condemned the Iranian Government's charges of espionage against seven members of the Baha'i religious community.

9:45 p.m. An interesting political twist in Iraq. Former Prime Minister Ayad  Allawi has warned that the country's fragile political stability could be broken if national elections later this year are as unfair as last month's provincial polls: ""If we don't rectify, if the process is not inclusive, and there are not laws in Iraq to clarify the funding and the capabilities of the various groups ... then we unfortunately will have a catastrophe in the next elections."

Evening Update (8:40 p.m): Here comes the Magic Link. The US Government has now tied its suspension of missile defence deployment in Eastern Europe to Russian agreement to end assistance to Iran's nuclear energy programmes: ""If we are able to work together to dissuade Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, we would be able to moderate the pace of development of missile defenses in Europe," said a "senior Administration official".

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that if North Korea "completely and verifiably" ends its nuclear arms programme, then the US is willing to normalize ties.

8:30 p.m. We've just posted a separate entry on how folks itching for a showdown with Iran have effectively thrown out the latest US intelligence assessment that there is no evidence Tehran has resumed production of nuclear weapons.

1:30 p.m. Afghan authorities have condemned a raid by Australian forces in which five children died.

10:20 a.m. In his first day of talks in Afghanistan, US envoy Richard Holbrooke will meet the Ministers of Defense and Interior. He sees Afghan President Hamid Karzai on Saturday.

9:55 a.m. A quiet start to the day has been disrupted violently by a suicide bomb south of Baghdad. At least 32 Shi'a pilgrims have been killed and 84 injured.

The attack is the second on Shi'a pilgrims this week, following the killing of eight people yesterday in Karbala.

Morning Update (9 a.m. GMT; 4 a.m. Washington): We're taking advantage of a slow news period to post a series of analyses: Afghan President Hamid Karzai's attempt to seize the public relations initiative from the US, the Director of National Intelligence's statement that there is no evidence for resumption of an Iranian nuclear weapons programme, and --- most importantly --- confirmation in US Government documents of extraordinary rendition, "ghost detainees", and torture.