Mr. Obama's World: Alerts in US Foreign Policy (12 February)

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9:30 p.m. A relatively quiet foreign policy day, as domestic politics --- notably Republican Judd Gregg's withdrawal from his nomination as Commerce Secretary because of "irreconcilable policy differences" with President Obama --- occupy Washington.

One emerging story is a lawsuit by three human rights organisations --- Amnesty International USA, New York University's Center for Human Rights and Global Justice, and the Center for Constitutional Rights --- claiming that the Pentagon sought loopholes in the Geneva Conventions to hide "ghost deatinees" and that the Bush Administration delayed the release of Guantanamo Bay detainees to avoid negative publicity. We'll have more on this tomorrow.



4:30 p.m. We're off the clock for awhile on emergency business (dinner and a movie). Back with an Evening Update.

2:20 p.m. Eight Iraqi pilgrims have been killed and 18 wounded by a bomb less than 1/2 mile from the Imam Hussein Mosque in Karbala.

1:40 p.m. A couple of items of note from US envoy Richard Holbrooke's trip to Pakistan. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who met Holbrooke earlier today (see 6:45 a.m.), has issued a co-operative statement: ""There's a change in [US] approach towards Pakistan. They do give importance to the people of Pakistan and their emotions and that's the feeling that I got from today's meeting."

It is now being reported, as we projected in a separate entry, that Holbrooke and Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi will head a joint committee "improving intelligence sharing and strengthen security".

12 noon. Further violence in Iraq today. A car bomb in Mosul has killed four policemen and wounded five. Two senior Sunni politicians have been killed by gunmen in Mosul, and a former army officer has been killed in Khaldiya.

10:15 a.m.Of course, today's statement by Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik, admitting that "some part of the conspiracy" behind December's attacks in Mumbai was planned in Pakistan, has nothing to do whatsoever with the visit of US envoy Richard Holbrooke.

Morning Updates (6:45 a.m. GMT; 1:45 a.m. Washington): Quiet start this morning, after yesterday was dominated by news of bombings and violences in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will name Stephen Bosworth, the Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, as US envoy to North Korea. The move, accompanying yesterday's confirmation that a US delegation will attend the six-party talks in Moscow on North Korea next week, signals the Obama Administration's diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang. It is a far cry from the George W. Bush Administration, which shut down talks with North Korea soon after taking office in 2001.

In Pakistan, US envoy Richard Holbrooke has met former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. No details on the conversation, but it is a signal of a change in American strategy, reaching out to politicians that had not been favoured by the Bush Administration. Sharif was sent into exile by General Pervez Musharraf and only returned to Pakistan with the strong backing of Saudi Arabia. He had been seen by Washington as too sympathetic to "conservative" elements in Pakistan, both religious and political, to be an alternative to President Zardari.

Pakistan to Obama: Change US Policy on Missile Strikes, Join Us in Ground Operations?

Update: It is now being reported that Holbrooke and Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi will head a joint committee "improving intelligence sharing and strengthen security".

As we noted yesterday, US envoy Richard Holbrooke is remaining tight-lipped on any impressions from his tour of Pakistan, which continues to Afghanistan today. Pakistani officials, however, are not so reticent: "Officials familiar with the conversations say Mr. Holbrooke was faced with universal opposition to the Predator strikes" that the US has been carrying out in northwest Pakistan.

So what to do? The Pakistan Government's line is that it wants a joint US-Pakistan review of the policy. At the same time, it is also complaining that the US is not doing enough to support the Pakistan Army's counterinsurgency operations.

Now, it may well be that the Obama Administration can simply buy the Zardari Government's acceptance of unilateral US airstrikes, as Islamabad is asking for billions of dollars in aid to be released. The money could prop up a shaky national government, which could in turn decide to treat the northwest Pakistan situation as an irritation but not a critical challenge. So Washington could have its occasional missile operations, and the Pakistani Army would carry out periodic but limited confrontations with local insurgents.

Yet, with the killings and unrest in the northwest becoming more frequent and more intense and with indications that high-profile attacks in Afghanistan such as yesterday's Kabul bombings are being carried out by Pakistan-based militants, an obvious dilemma --- and possible next step --- are emerging.

The logic of "more support" for Pakistani Army operations means US ground support and even involvement. Yet that involvement would be a huge political risk for the Zardari Government, which could even fall over the reaction to high-profile foreign intervention.

On the other hand, if that US participation in ground operations was portrayed as a Pakistani-led initiative, could the political risk be run?

Watch this space.

Mr Obama's World: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (11 February)

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Mr Obama's World Today: Uncertain

Evening Update (8:45 p.m.): The US Government will send a delegation next week to the six-party talks in Moscow on North Korean disarmament.

4:40 p.m. Marc Lynch of Foreign Policy notes the story that almost all media have missed today:  the visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao to Saudi Arabia

4:25 p.m. The Pakistani Foreign Ministry has said that President Obama and Pakistani President Asif Zardari have spoken by phone, ageeing to start addressing problems in the region with a "holistic strategy".

Afternoon Update (3:30 p.m.): A spike in violence from bombings and attacks today. In addition to the deaths in Afghanistan, a provincial minister has been killed by a roadside bomb in northwest Pakistan. Bombs in Iraq have killed at least eight people, while gunmen have slain several others, including a senior engineer and a prominent local football player.

US envoy Richard Holbrooke has visited northwest Pakistan to view a Pakistani military installation. As with his talks with political leaders on Tuesday, Holbrooke would say no more than that he was on a "listening" tour.



11:35 a.m. The Russians really are playing this hand well on Afghanistan. Offering co-operation but also ensuring control and thus oversight of Moscow's interest, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, amidst meetings with a senior US diplomat, that Russian military aircraft could assist with the supply effort.

11:25 a.m. During a trip to Iraq on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said, ""We look positively on the slogan that Obama raised in the elections. The world has really changed. If the American administration wants to keep up with the changes, this will be happy news." (cross-posted from US Engagement with Iran thread)

9:30 a.m. A revealing bit of information that did not make it into the morning papers: "A senior American diplomat will hold talks with Russian officials on Tuesday about opening new supply routes across Russian territory to NATO forces in Afghanistan, the U.S. embassy said."

The news indicates how serious the supply situation for Afghanistan has become, with the closure of the Pakistan routes and the threatened shutdown of the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan. And it shows how dependent Washington has become on Moscow's goodwill for a solution, which in turn has shaped the encouragement of President Obama and Vice President Biden for closer co-operation with the Russians.

8:45 a.m. Meanwhile in Pakistan.... In another sign that the Obama Administration is reviewing its options carefully before making any strategic decisions, envoy Richard Holbrooke limited his comments after meetings with Pakistani officials to, "[I was here] to listen and learn the ground realities of this critically important country".

In contrast, the priority of President Asif Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani was clear: Give Us Money. Their recogition of "the importance of enhanced cooperation in defense and intelligence sharing" was followed by a request to Washington to "expedite" billions of dollars in aid.

7:55 a.m. The New York Times also has a shrewd reading of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's criticism of Vice President Joe Biden,  which we noted yesterday. Al-Maliki's response to Biden's complaints about the lack of Iraqi political and economic reform were offered during a visit to Baghdad by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

The French, as all 2003 critics of "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" will recall, have had extensive economic interests in Iraq. Al-Maliki's comments, however, are not just a reach-out for investment for Paris; they signal Iraq's wish to move away from perceived political dependence on, even subservience to, Washington.

7:35 a.m. On the eve of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's trip to Asia, an interesting insight into Administration strategy on China in The New York Times.

"Senior Administration officials", probably from the State Department, tell the Times, "The Obama administration plans to realign the United States’ relationship with China by putting more emphasis on climate change, energy and human rights, widening the focus beyond the economic concerns of the Bush years." By going for environmental issues rather than risking economic confrontation, the US can then seek leverage on political concerns: "A broader relationship with the Chinese could create opportunities for collaboration — not only on a response to the global economic crisis, but also on the environment and on security issues like the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs."

You may have noticed, however, the troublesome phrase in the spin. "Human rights"? Is Washington really going to press issues such as Chinese control of Tibet and jailing of dissidents?

The balancing act was demonstrated on Tuesday when State Department spokesman Gordon Duguid told CNN, ""We are disturbed that prominent Chinese human rights activist Huang Qi remains in detention. We call on the Chinese government to release Mr. Huang as soon as possible."

7 a.m. Repeating the latest in the battle within the Obama Administration over Afghanistan strategy. Countering President Obama's attempt to take more time through an inter-agency review, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has declared, ""I think that there is a realization that some decisions have to be made ... before the strategic review is completed. [Obama] has several options in front of him."

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, joined in the pressure on Obama. US military commanders "had this request out for many months and those working through the request recognize that the sooner the better with respect to this. I'm hopeful that we can get them there as soon as absolutely possible, but, again, that's a decision for the president of the United States, not for me."

Meanwhile, the US and Canada kept up the pressure on Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Mullen said in Ottawa on Tuesday, "As we look at the challenges that we have in 2009-2010 ... I think the lack of governance tied to the corruption that exists (in Afghanistan), is going to be the number one challenge that we have."

Morning Update (6:45 a.m. GMT; 1:45 a.m. Washington): Another day focused on the economy. President Obama's economic stimulus package moves from the Senate, where it passed yesterday, to the House of Representatives.

"A senior US official" has told CNN that American satellite photography shows possible preparations for a North Korean missile launch. Telemetry equipment is being assembled at the launch site, although there is no sign yet of a missile being moved. The last launch from the location, in 2006, was of a long-range Taepodong-2 missile, which flew for 40 seconds before crashing.

The US Government's reaction has been measured, focusing on diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said on Tuesday:

Well, since the first time that they launched the missile, it flew for a few minutes before crashing, the range of the Taepodong-2 remains to be seen. So far, it's very short. I'm not going to get into intelligence reports, but it would be nice if North Korea would focus on getting positive messages across to the -- to its negotiating partners about verification and moving forward with the denuclearization.

Today's Obama-meter: The Latest on US Foreign Policy (10 February)

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7:45 p.m. CBS News has corrected its reports: Iranian news agency, not President Ahmadinejad, has requested a meeting with Obama.

7:05 p.m. Getting a Bit Uppity. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has hit back at Vice President Joe Biden, who last week criticised the slow pace on issues like the status of Kirkuk and distribution of oil revenues:

I believe talk about applying pressure on the Iraqi government or taking hard measures against it no longer works. Such speech is out of date, because the government of Iraq knows its responsibilities and acts accordingly in a strong way.

7 p.m. According to CBS News, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has requested a meeting with President Obama.



4:50 p.m. President Obama just used the ploy of "don't act; send it to committee" to foil the military's drive for a quick surge in Afghanistan. The White House has just announced "an interagency review", chaired by former CIA officer and current Brookings Institution fellow Bruce Riedel, to examine US policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan. (cross-posted from the Obama Press Conference thread)

2:40 a.m. Finally, news from Islamabad of the talks between Obama envoy Richard Holbrooke and the Zardari Government. Pakistani officials warned that any US military "surge" must be accompanied by a political strategy including talks with "moderate Taliban". Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said, ""Obviously, there are some irreconcilable elements and no one wants to deal with them....But there is a reconcilable element and we should not overlook their importance.

The Pakistani recommendation is in line with the approach proposed by Saudi Arabia and by Afghan President Hamid Karzai, which he highlighted at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday. At the same time, the Afghan Government is wary that Pakistan must be using the "moderate Taliban" to re-establish its influence within Afghanistan.

11:50 a.m. Another Engaging Sign. This time it's with Syria, as the Obama Administration has authorised the sale of spare parts for two ageing Boeing 747s, despite long-standing sanctions against Damascus.

Syria has also signed a memorandum to buy 50 European Airbus passenger jets over the next 20 years.

11:30 a.m. Two NATO soldiers have been killed by a roadside bomb in eastern Afghanistan.

11 a.m. US envoy Richard Holbrooke has met President Asif Zardari and other Pakistani officials. No word yet on the content of the talks.

10:55 a.m. Right Back at Ya. Hours after President Obama's endorsement of further engagement, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said he is ready for dialogue if change is "fundamental" and talks are based on mutual respect.

Morning Update (9:15 a.m. GMT; 4:15 a.m. Washington): We've got full coverage of the foreign-policy sections of President Obama's first press conference, including the transcript, a review of the President's statements from Afghanistan to Pakistan to Russia, and a special analysis of his comments on US-Iran relations.

Obama Press Conference: Thumbs-Up for Iran and Russia, Slapdowns for Petraeus and Pakistan

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Update on Update: So, fearing that the President is stalling on the issue, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates says he expects Obama's decision on troops in Afghanistan in the "next few days".

Update: President Obama just used the ploy of "don't act; send it to committee" to foil the military's drive for a quick surge in Afghanistan. The White House has just announced "an interagency review", chaired by former CIA officer and current Brookings Institution fellow Bruce Riedel, to examine US policy on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

While President Obama's main concern in Elkhart, Indiana, last night was to put across his economic stimulus package, there were several significant exchanges with reporters on foreign-policy issues.

We've posted a separate entry on the significance of Obama's remarks about Iran, which offer further encouragement for engagement.

Here's a more subtle development, however, that the media missed: on Afghanistan, Obama slapped down the military and General David Petraeus.

We are undergoing a thorough-going review. Not only is General Petraeus, now the head of CENTCOM, conducting his own review, he's now working in concert with the special envoy that I've sent over -- Richard Holbrooke, one of our top diplomats -- to evaluate a regional approach. We are going to need more effective coordination of our military efforts with diplomatic efforts with development efforts with more effective coordination with our allies in order for us to be successful.

Interpretation? Obama signalled that he is not going to accept, without discussion and modification, the military's surge proposal. Specifically, he let it be known that Petraeus's word isn't gospel --- however big the legend of "victory" in Iraq --- and Holbrooke is his point man as he tours Afghanistan.

That's not to say Obama isn't playing tough. His other warning was that the US would use all necessary means to remove the insurgent threat from Pakistan:

This past week I met with families of those who were lost in 9/11, a reminder of the costs of allowing those safe havens to exist. My bottom line is that we cannot allow al Qaeda to operate. We cannot have those safe havens in that region. And we're going to have to work both smartly and effectively, but with consistency, in order to make sure that those safe havens don't exist.

Later in the conference, Obama returned to the theme and put the onus on Islamabad to respond positively to American plans: "I believe that the new government of Pakistan and -- and [President Asif] Zardari cares deeply about getting control
of this situation, and we want to be effective partners with them on that issue."

A more positive signal went out to Moscow, where Obama continued the Administration's early efforts at co-operation: "I've mentioned [nuclear proliferation] in conversations with the Russian president, Mr. Medvedev, to let him know that it is important for us to restart the conversation, about how we can start reducing our nuclear arsenals in an effective way."