Mr Obama's World: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (19 February)

Latest Post: Engagement with Iran? An Additional View of Professor Gary Sick’s Analysis
Latest Post: Muntazar al-Zaidi - Shoe-Throwing Trial Starts Today in Iraq

Evening Update (8:30 p.m.): Al Jazeera has a useful summary of the challenge facing the US military "surge", not from the enemy but from its allies. A two-day meeting of NATO defence ministers in Poland is highlighting that few, if any, members are eager to raise their troop levels beyond token commitments. Even John Hutton, the blowhard British Minister of Defence who talked about "a struggle against fanatics that...challenges our way of life in the same way the Nazis did", is saying it is up to other NATO countries to take the first step.

As Damascus makes a major play for leadership in Middle Eastern politics, the United Nations may revive an inconvenient incident. It is reporting additional nuclear particles from a Syrian facility bombed by Israel in September 2007 and noting that the particles cannot have come from Israeli missiles.

The Pentagon is playing for time after this morning's Parliamentary vote in Kyrgyzstan closing the US airbase within six months: "We continue to consider what we might be able to offer the (Kyrgyzstan) government but we're not prepared to stay at any price and we continue to look at other options that are available to us."



Afternoon Update (1:15 p.m.): The Afghanistan Foreign Ministry has tried to take advantage of President Obama's inclusion of Kabul in the US strategic review by claiming a lead role on issues of security, development, and reconstruction: "Since a new page has been opened with America and we have had the opportunity as an ally to raise our points, we are repeating them for we believe they are essential in bringing security."

Afghanistan will also be pressing the US to extend its operation against "sanctuaries" in Pakistan.

A series of roadside and car bombs have killed seven Iraqi soldiers and policemen and wounded more than 20 people.

North Korean military spokesmen welcome Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's forthcoming visit with the declaration: "[South Korea's] group of traitors should never forget that the Korean People's Army is fully ready for an all-out confrontation."

Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 1 a.m. Washington): A Surge is Not a Surge. Now that President Obama has approved an additional 21,000 troops for Afghanistan this year, bringing the US force close to 60,000, the military are putting out the line that this is a long-term commitment. General David McKiernan, the commander of US and NATO forces in the country, emphasized, "This is not a temporary force uplift. It will need to be sustained for some period of time, for the next three to four to five years." While some units would be in place, especially in southern Afghanistan, by the summer, "Even with these additional forces,...2009 is going to be a tough year."

McKiernan then added a statement which, if anyone is watching carefully, exposes the difficulties of the surge which is more than a surge. The general cited the causes of turmoil as "three decades of low literacy rates and rampant poverty and violence". These would seem to require more than a show of US force, but McKiernan pressed on, "We do see, with these additional forces, an opportunity to break this stalemate, at least in terms of security conditions in the south."

Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has set up another test of the US strategy, calling on NATO allies to increase their military presence: "The [US] administration is prepared... to make additional commitments to Afghanistan, but there clearly will be expectations that the allies must do more as well." The call to arms may be met with less-than-enthusiastic responses: Italy said yesterday that it would send more 500 troops, and Georgia, angling to join NATO, has announced it will despatch 200. However, British Foreign Minister David Miliband stalled with the claim that there had been request for more UK forces. With Barack Obama in Canada today, it will be interesting to see how Ottawa, which has been on the front-line of the Afghan effort, responds.

The Kyrgyzstan Parliament is likely to deal another blow to US plans today when it approves the Government proposal to close the US Manas airbase, a key supply line for the military in Afghanistan.

Egypt has released the opposition leader Ayman Nour from detention because "health concerns". Nour was sentenced to five years on forgery charges in 2005, months after he finished second to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in elections. His case has been a prominent symbol for activists pressing for democratic reform and human rights.

Mr Obama's World: Latest Alerts in US Foreign Policy (18 January)

Latest Post: Is Israel Winning A Covert War Against Iran? - An Alternative View
Latest Post: Update - The US Airbases Inside Pakistan
Latest Post: War on Terror Watch: Guantanamo Guard Brandon Neely Interview
Latest Post: Fudging the Decision - The Obama Statement on The Troop Increase in Afghanistan

Current Obamameter Reading: Forecast Uncertain



Afternoon Update (5 p.m.): All's Well That Ends Well. Afghan President Hamid Karzai says, "The tension the Afghan government had with the U.S. government is now over." Last week Karzai was the leader that Washington was going to push aside, but all it took, apparently, was the addition of Afghans to the US strategic review and a phone call from President Obama to make everything right:

"The tension was over civilian casualties and uncoordinated operations by foreign troops. From now on, no foreign troop operations will be uncoordinated with Afghan forces.

12:20 p.m. Video footage has confirmed that a US airstrike in Afghanistan on Monday, which the US military claimed had killed "Taliban", left at least one child dead. Afghan officials claim that 12 civilians --- six women, twq children, and four men --- died in the attack.

8:20 a.m. An Initiative from Damascus. Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad, following the Gaza conflict and the advent of the Obama Administration, has set out his own vision of "engagement". He has eagerly welcomed the US as the "main arbiter" in the Middle East peace process, saying he expects the US to send an Ambassador to Syria soon.

We hope to analyse this in a separate entry later today.

8 a.m. Speaking of Iraq, "a senior Administration official" is putting out the story that Obama will decide within weeks, "not days or months", on the drawdown of combat troops.
7:35 a.m. Oh, to be a fly on the wall: Vice President Joe Biden has a closed-door meeting with the departing US Ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, today.

Crocker has been actively backing the US military as it tries to undercut the Obama plan to withdraw combat troops from Iraq within 16 months, and he was also a vocal critic of Biden's post-2003 proposal for a "federal" Iraq divided amongst Shi'a, Sunni, and Kurdish areas.

7:20 a.m. A far-from-incidental footnote to the news of the troop increase. Yesterday President Obama spoke with Afghan President Hamid Karzai for the first time since his Inauguration. No details on the talk, but I assume that Obama, having joined in his Administration's public blasting of Karzai over the last month, was trying to smooth relations as the American plans unfold.

Morning Update (6:15 a.m. GMT; 1;15 a.m. Washington): The headlines this morning are of President Obama's decision to increase US troops in Afghanistan, which we evaluated last night. The total appears to be just under 21,000 troops, if the Army brigade sent out to Afghanistan last month is included; the military request was for 30,000. The breakdown includes:

An Army brigade of about 3700 troops in eastern Afghanistan (already deployed);
8000 Marines from Camp Lejeune, North Carolina;
An Army "Stryker" brigade of 4000 troops;
5000 support troops.

Our evaluation is unchanged: contrary to the media reports you will get today, Obama has not indicated a clear strategy with this decision, and I even doubt that the decision has been prompted by the fear of a Taliban "spring offensive". It is motivated more by the recognition that he cannot hold out any longer against the military's request, for the sake of harmony within his Administration and for domestic opinion. The strategic front is still the 60-day review which is now being led by Obama envoy Richard Holbrooke and Obama campaign advisor Bruce Riedel, with supposed Afghan participation.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (18 February)

Evening Update (7 p.m.): As the Israel-Hamas talks on Gaza stall, inevitably Egypt's push for Palestinian "reconciliation" --- if it had any chance of success --- collapses. The Egyptian state news agency MENA is reporting, "Egyptian-sponsored reconciliation talks between Palestinian groups have been delayed to allow for more consultations."

2:30 p.m. Now Here's A Coincidence. On the same day that headlines are made over Syrian President Bashir al-Assad's encouragement of dialogue with the US, the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz features a story alleging that Syria has stepped up production of chemical weapons.

2:20 p.m. And That, For Now, Is That. Hamas has rejected Israel's precondition of a prisoner swap, including Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, for a Gaza settlement.



12:20 p.m. The Israeli daily Ma'ariv claims that chief negotiator Amos Gilad has criticised Prime Minister Ehud Olmert for linking an agreement on Gaza to a prisoner exchange involving soldier Gilad Shalit: "I don't understand what it is that they're trying to do. To insult the Egyptians? We've already insulted them. It's madness. It's simply madness. Egypt has remained almost our last ally here."

11:20 a.m. No Agreement. As we projected, the Israeli Cabinet has set the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit as a precondition for a settlement over Gaza. This now means that the arrangement of a prisoner swap has to be established for any agreement between Tel Aviv and Hamas.

8:20 a.m. An Initiative from Damascus. Syrian leader Bashir al-Assad, following the Gaza conflict and the advent of the Obama Administration, has set out his own vision of "engagement". He has eagerly welcomed the US as the "main arbiter" in the Middle East peace process, saying he expects the US to send an Ambassador to Syria soon.

We hope to analyse this in a separate entry later today. (cross-posted from Latest Alerts in US Foreign Policy thread)

8:15 a.m. A Qassam rocket has landed in southern Israel.

Morning Update (6:45 a.m. GMT; 8:45 a.m Israel/Palestine): I could almost cut-and-paste the update from yesterday. While movement is awaited from Tel Aviv today on the proposed Israel-Gaza cease-fire arrangements, Israeli planes have bombed several tunnels around Rafah as well as a Hamas post in Khan Younis. This is the standard retaliation for the firing of a mortar round into Israel on Tuesday night.

What Israel Lost in Gaza: Talks with Syria, A Relationship with Turkey?

To my knowledge, this story from Ha'aretz on Friday has received little notice outside Israel:

Israel and Syria were about to announce that they would speak directly a week before the fighting in Gaza broke out, a Turkish official said. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan had spoken with Syrian President Bashar Assad (pictured) during Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's visit to Ankara, and had mediated in crafting a joint statement.

But a few days later, while still awaiting Olmert's approval for the statement, Israel launched Operation Cast Lead in Gaza and Erdogan felt betrayed.

Now it could well be that Turkey is playing up the story to cover Erdogan's very public denunciation of Israeli actions. And it may be the case that, after making political calculations, Damascus will decide that the benefits of coming back to the negotiating table with Israel outweigh or even balance its backing of Hamas. As my colleague Ali Yenidunya has argued, there may be no long-term cost to the Israeli-Turkish alliance.

For the moment, however, let's note that the Israeli Government was so driven to take action in Gaza that it was willing to risk a peace process to ease tensions on its northern border and a strategic relationship with Ankara. It will be some time before we know what motives lay behind this gamble --- regime change? a strike at Hamas as a strike against Tehran? a grand scheme in collusion with the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, and, possibly, Saudi Arabia? Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's attempt to wipe away the stain of Lebanon 2006?

It is almost definite, however, that given the stakes involved, Operation Cast Lead was never just a response to rocket fire.B