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Wednesday
Feb042009

Israel-Gaza: How to Cover a Mass Killing with "Balance"

Morning Update (7:30 a.m. GMT; 2:30 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The New York Times has a lengthy article on the mass killing in El Atatra, in which 16 civilians allegedly died amidst fighting that killed four soldiers.

The article is a careful study in how to maintain balance in an unbalanced situation:

The war in El Atatra tells the story of Israel’s three-week offensive in Gaza, with each side giving a very different version. Palestinians here describe Israeli military actions as a massacre, and Israelis attribute civilian casualties to a Hamas policy of hiding behind its people. In El Atatra, neither version appears entirely true, based on 50 interviews with villagers and four Israeli commanders.



So what is the middle ground between these versions?

The dozen or so civilian deaths seem like the painful but inevitable outcome of a modern army bringing war to an urban space. And while Hamas fighters had placed explosives in a kitchen, on doorways and in a mosque, they did not seem to be forcing civilians to act as shields.



All right, so Hamas is cleared of the most serious charge of hiding behind civilians, while Israel gets a reduced civilian death toll and the let-off that "S*** Happens" in modern warfare. But hold on, go back to the top of the article:

The phosphorus smoke bomb punched through the roof in exactly the spot where much of the family had taken refuge — the upstairs hall away from the windows. The bomb, which international weapons experts identified as phosphorus by its fragments, was intended to mask troop movements outside. Instead it breathed its storm of fire and smoke into Sabah Abu Halima’s hallway, releasing flaming chemicals that clung to her husband, baby girl and three other small children, burning them to death.



That would be not just phosphorous then but "white phosphorous", the use of which in built-up areas with civilians is illegal under international law. Reporters Ethan Bronner and Sabrina Tavernise, for all the admirable detail in their article, never directly mention this. Instead, they pass the buck:

The question of how Israel handled civilians in this war has become a matter of keen controversy. Human rights groups are crisscrossing Gaza, documenting what they believe will form the basis for war crimes proceedings aimed at demonstrating that Israel used disproportionate force.


Israeli officers said they took special care not to harm civilians.



Balance? Journalistic objectivity, yes. Offering evidence but then hiding its significance, no.

Elsewhere Bronner and Tavernise depict graphically the shooting of unarmed civilians trying to surrender and the dead lying uncollected for 11 days as dogs ate their remains. And, in their understated way, they offer a chilling forecast of the consequences from the El Atatra mass killing, which will not occur in an international court but in further conflict:

Matar’s mother, Nabila Abu Halima, said she had been shot through the arm when she tried to move toward her son. Her left arm bears a round scar. Her son came back to her in pieces, his body crushed under tank treads....


“We used to tell fighters not to fire from here,” said Nabila Abu Halima, looking over a field through her open window. “Now I’ll invite them to do it from my house.”

Tuesday
Feb032009

The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (3 February)

6 p.m. Line up for the Inter-Arab Showdown. Nine foreign ministers from Arab states, meeting in Abu Dhabi, have put their support behind Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas. No support given that all nine --- Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, Yemen and the Palestinian Authority --- have been on the anti-Hamas side of the fence during the Gaza conflict.

The question now is how Turkey, Syria, Iran and others who gave support to Hamas during the Israeli invasion react.

4 p.m. Repeating a pattern from Sunday, Israel has responded to the rocket fired from Gaza this morning with attacks on the tunnels around Rafah.

3 p.m. Nothing stunning in first reports on US envoy George Mitchell's press conference after his return from the Middle East: he plans to have a "regular and sustained presence in the region" and will return this month. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says she will work with Israelis and Palestinians for a "viable Palestinian state" but added the ritual three conditions, adopted by the US-EU-Russia-UN Quartet, for Hamas participation: "Hamas knows the conditions ... They must renounce violence, they must recognize Israel, they must agree to abide by prior agreements."



1 p.m. Hamas officials continue to hold out the prospect of a cease-fire proposal being put to Israel by Thursday. Gaza Deputy Foreign Minister Ahmed Youssef said last night that, while he had not heard from the Hamas delegation in Cairo, "We are heading toward a right direction, toward a cease-fire."

12:30 p.m. With little happening on the diplomatic front, the most significant development is in Abu Dhabi, where foreign ministers from nine Arab countries are meeting. No news, however, on any outcomes regarding Palestine.

Morning Update (7 a.m. GMT; 9 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Because of the effective division of the diplomatic process yesterday, with part of it going on in Cairo and part moved to Paris, we're in a curious next-to-silence this morning. No news on either discussion has made it into the press, which has contributed to amnesia by failing to recognise the significance of Mahmoud Abbas' diversion from Egypt to France (and his continued European walk-about this week).

Israel will now be occupied with the elections scheduled for 10 February. Hamas will be content to shore up its diplomatic position in the region and its support in Gaza. And (barring our scenario that the Paris talks were considering an "intermediary" to set up a channel between the US Government and Hamas) others in Washington, Europe, and the West Bank are scrambling for a new policy to limit the Hamas threat.

A Grad rocket fired from Gaza landed near Ashkelon in Israel this morning. It was the longest-range rocket launched since the ceasefire on 18 January.
Tuesday
Feb032009

We are Saved: Joe the Plumber becomes Joe the Economist

As a foreign policy blog, we have been leaving reporting and analysis of the US economy, including the Obama stimulus plan, to others. We have to note, however, that those others now include a talented newcomer, fresh from his work as a war correspondent in Israel:

When GOP congressional aides gather Tuesday morning for a meeting of the Conservative Working Group, Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher – more commonly known as Joe the Plumber — will be their featured guest. This group is an organization of conservative Capitol Hill staffers who meet regularly to chart GOP strategy for the week.



Wurzelbacher, who became a household name during the presidential election, will be focusing his talk on the proposed stimulus package. He's apparently not a fan of the economic rescue package, according to members of the group.
Tuesday
Feb032009

Today's Obamameter: The Latest in US Foreign Policy (3 February)

Current Obamameter Reading: Fair but Long-Term Prospect of Storms

11:20 p.m. Well, not much to wrap up --- world still in one piece and Obama Administration preoccupied with the forced withdrawal of Tom Daschle's nomination for Health and Human Services Secretary because of tax problems.

We've got inside story on two major developments, however, regarding Afghanistan and Iran and will be leading the morning update with these in a few hours.

Good night and peace to all.



7:30 p.m. We're suspending service for the very good reason that we're seeing Steve Earle's son Justin in concert. Back later with an evening wrap-up.

6:10 p.m. Oops, Spoke Too Soon. We reported 30 minutes ago of far-from-panicked response of the US Administration to the Iran satellite launch, but in another sign that the Obama White House is far from unified in both message and policy, a Pentagon spokesman is not so laid back: "It is certainly a reason for us to be concerned about Iran and its continued attempts to develop a ballistic missile program of increasingly long range."

One can only hope that the US gets its act on Iran together before the meeting on Wednesday with Russia, China, and the EU-3 (Britain, France, and Germany) in Berlin. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton held the line today: ""It is clear that ... Iran has an opportunity to step up and become a productive member of the international community."

6 p.m. Score One for Moscow. As we projected this morning (10:25 a.m.), the Russian offer of aid to Kyrgyzstan has had consequences for the US. Reports indicate the US airbase, strategically important for support of Afghanistan, will be closed.

5:45 p.m. The Israeli Government won't be pleased, but this seems a sensible (if unofficial and anonymous) line on the Iran satellite launch from an Obama staffer. The strategic balance in the region is unaltered: ""The satellite technology they have deployed is probably not state of the art, but for the Iranians this is an important symbolic step forward."

1:45 p.m. The Islamic insurgent group, Al-Shabab, has called on Somalis to drive African Union troops out of the country.

11:25 a.m. An interesting piece from Reuters: "The Obama administration has toned down U.S. rhetoric against Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, dropping for now a public demand the veteran African leader step down." Policy towards Zimbabwe is under review, but with no appointment yet of the State Department's top personnel for Africa, this may take take some time.

11:20 a.m. Iran Coming in from the US Cold? If so, one reason will be the increasingly difficult position for US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. NATO's top commander, General John Craddock, has told the Associated Press, that the alliance would not object to individual member nations making deals with Iran to supply their forces in Afghanistan: "Those would be national decisions. Nations should act in a manner that is consistent with their national interest and with their ability to resupply their forces."

10:45 a.m. Russia and the US may be maneouvring for advantages in places like Central Asia, but the direct relationship continues to improve. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke by phone on Tuesday. The chief topic, according to a Russian statement, was "the mutual interest of building a positive agenda".

10:35 a.m. Update on the Stalemate over Drugs/AIDS Policy. The Guardian has a follow-up article on our analysis on Sunday about the State Department's blocking of any reference to "harm reduction" in a United Nations declaration on drug use and AIDS.

10:25 a.m. One to Watch in Central Asia. Russia, as part of its ongoing manoeuvres vs. the US for influence in the region, may offer "hundreds of millions of dollars in emergency aid" to Kyrgyzstan President Kurmanbek Bakiyev during his talks in Moscow with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.

Kremlin officials said that military co-operation would be discussed but did not indicate whether the offer of the aid and that co-operation has any connection to current US efforts to renew the lease on its airbase in Kyrgyzstan. The US base is a vital supply route for forces in Afghanistan.

10 a.m. We've just posted a separate entry on the revelation in The Washington Post that a Pentagon memo says Blackwater, the security firm responsible for numerous civilian deaths in Iraq, is not subject to US criminal laws.

9:45 a.m. A Reminder Why Obama is Better. Today's New York Times has an editorial by a Mr John Bolton, who I believe was an official in the George W. Bush Administration, on Sunday's Iraqi provincial elections.

Not one of the 500 words is devoted, however, to the significance of the elections for Iraqis. Instead, Bolton's concern is how the vote "redefine Iran's role in the region".

Readers who move beyond the superficial headline --- or the question of why the Times continues to give space to Bolton to blow hard; the three reactions from Iraqi bloggers are far more important --- may recognise the strategy of the Bush Administration: make Iraq a demonstration to show American strength to others in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. But, to keep it simple....

It's Not All About Iran.

7:45 a.m. The Flaws in the Afghanistan Strategy. We've just posted a separate entry on a revealing --- and disturbing --- speech by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of State yesterday.

Morning Update (7 a.m. GMT; 2 a.m. Washington): NATO statistics show a 30 percent increase in attacks by roadside bomb in Afghanistan in 2008. Overall attacks were up 31 percent, and deaths of US and NATO forces rose 26 percent.

Pakistani insurgents have blown up a major bridge in the Khyber Pass,west of Peshawar, further restricting movement along the supply route to US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. The US military is looking for alternative routes to the Pass and another route via Chaman to its Afghan base in Kandahar because of insurgent attacks; up to 75 percent of supplies to US and NATO forces could be affected. Pakistani military claimed it has killed 35 militants in fighting in the Swat Valley.

Iran, timing the breakthrough with the celebration of the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, has launched its first satellite orbiting the Earth.

Fighting in Somalia, which we reported yesterday, killed at least 39 civilians. The incident followed a bomb targeting African Union troops, which injured one soldier.
Tuesday
Feb032009

Sometimes the Bad Guy Doesn't Get Punished: Iraq and Blackwater

Maybe the Coen Brothers can follow up No Country for Old Men with a movie based on the following from today's Washington Post:

The Pentagon wrote in 2007 that Blackwater Worldwide contractors in Iraq are not subject to U.S. civilian criminal laws, a position that undercuts the Justice Department’s effort to prosecute five Blackwater security guards on manslaughter charges.


Defense contractors can be prosecuted in U.S. courts for crimes committed overseas, but because of a legal loophole, contractors for other agencies can face charges only if their work assignments supported the Defense Department. Blackwater, the largest security contractor in Iraq, works for the State Department.