Palestine Document: Abbas Interview "I Will Not Back Down From Demands"

On Sunday, in an interview with Der Spiegel, the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, expressed his disappointment with the Obama Administration, saying that Barack Obama has changed the route of the negotiations by dropping demands for a freeze on Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Abbas said that there was hope for an agreement with Ehud Olmert, but the Israeli Prime Minister had to leave the office earlier due to corruption accusations. Another complication, implied by Abbas, was that Hamas had rejected a Palestinian reconciliation agreement with Abbas' party, Fatah, because of Iran.

Palestine Special: All Along Israel’s West Bank Watchtower

SPIEGEL: Mr. President, the whole world is waiting for you to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for talks. When is this finally going to happen?

ABBAS: That depends on Israel. We Palestinians have always said that we are willing to negotiate, but only if Israel stops settlement construction completely and recognizes the 1967 borders.



SPIEGEL: Why are you standing in the way of talks by setting these preconditions?

ABBAS: They aren't preconditions, but steps that are overdue after the first phase of the international roadmap for peace. Unlike Israel, we have met our obligations: We have recognized Israel's right to exist, and we are combating violent Palestinian groups. The Americans, the Europeans and even the Israelis have acknowledged this.

SPIEGEL: At least Netanyahu has ordered a 10-month freeze on settlements, something no other Israeli prime minister has done. Wouldn't it be your turn now to take a step in his direction?

ABBAS: It isn't a real moratorium, because a few thousand housing units are still being built in the West Bank, and Jerusalem is completely exempted from the settlement freeze.

SPIEGEL: You negotiated with Netanyahu's predecessor, Ehud Olmert, even though settlement construction was continuing without restrictions at the time. Aren't you applying a double standard here?

ABBAS: In a way, yes. But I have asked Olmert to freeze settlement construction every time we met. Besides, Barack Obama was elected president of the United States in the interim. In his speech to the Islamic world in Cairo, he called for a complete freeze on settlements. When the American president does this, I cannot accept anything less.

SPIEGEL: But now Obama is only talking about Israeli "restraint" in building settlements. At his request, you even agreed to a symbolic handshake with Netanyahu in New York.

ABBAS: I was initially very optimistic after Obama won the election. His Middle East envoy, George Mitchell, kept coming to us and promised to urge the Israelis to stop settlement construction completely. Mitchell said that the negotiations would only resume after a moratorium. The American government suddenly backed away from this position in September.

SPIEGEL: Are you saying that it's the Americans' fault that things aren't progressing?

ABBAS: Naturally, I'm not pleased with the Americans' change of course. But I will not back down.

SPIEGEL: What do you expect from Obama?

ABBAS: I still hope that he will revive the peace process. At least he has to convince the Israelis to announce a complete freeze on construction in the West Bank and East Jerusalem for a few months.

SPIEGEL: Apparently the pressure Obama has exerted on Israel until now hasn't been very effective.

ABBAS: It isn't my job to tell the Americans how to deal with Israel. But they have options. They are, after all, the most powerful country in the world. Obama said that a Palestinian state constitutes a vital American interest. The president is under an obligation to apply all of his energy to achieving peace and the vision of a Palestinian state.

SPIEGEL: Could it be that the real reason for the current standstill is that you don't trust Netanyahu?

ABBAS: What he has said so far, at any rate, leads me to question whether he really wants a solution. He has not expressly accepted the two-state solution.

SPIEGEL: In a speech at Bar-Ilan University in June 2009, Netanyahu said: "If the Palestinians recognize Israel as the Jewish state, we are ready to agree to a real peace agreement, a demilitarized Palestinian state side by side with the Jewish state."

ABBAS: You see, he's the one who is setting preconditions. He declares Jerusalem as the "undivided and eternal capital of the State of Israel." He refuses to discuss the question of Palestinian refugees. And he insists that we accept Israel in advance as a Jewish state.

SPIEGEL: But the principle of the two-state solution must mean that the one state is for the Palestinians and the other is for the Jews. Why do you have a problem with recognizing Israel as a Jewish state?

ABBAS: We recognized the State of Israel within the 1967 borders. Whether it defines itself as a Jewish state, a Hebrew state or a Zionist state is its business. As far as I'm concerned, it can call itself what it pleases. But he cannot force me to agree with this definition.

SPIEGEL: Israel wouldn't be Israel without a Jewish majority.

ABBAS: It is a fact that the majority of the citizens of the State of Israel are Jews. But it isn't within my power to define Israel's character.

SPIEGEL: But with such remarks, you create the suspicion among Israelis that you actually hope to eventually overcome this Jewish majority, particularly when you continue to insist that all Palestinians expelled in 1948 have the right of return.

ABBAS: I understand these concerns. Today, there are 5 million Palestinian refugees. I'm not saying that they all have to return, but we need a fair solution. United Nations Resolution 194 ...

SPIEGEL: ... of Dec. 11, 1948 ...

ABBAS: ... states that those who relinquish their right of return must receive appropriate financial compensation for doing so. In other words, the solution has been on the table for 60 years, so what's the problem?

SPIEGEL: Netanyahu's predecessor Ehud Olmert made you the best offer: The establishment of a Palestinian state on far more than 90 percent of the West Bank, a division of Jerusalem and the return of a few thousand refugees to Israel. Why did you reject it?

ABBAS: I didn't reject it. Olmert resigned from office because of his personal problems.

SPIEGEL: You waited too long. If you had accepted, most Israelis would probably have been willing to ignore the corruption charges against Olmert. Former Israeli Foreign Minister Abba Eban once said that the Palestinians never miss an opportunity ...

ABBAS: ... to miss an opportunity. Yes, I'm familiar with the quote. But we did seize the opportunity when Olmert was in office. We negotiated very seriously with him. We exchanged maps showing the locations of the borders. Then he left office. His successor Tzipi Livni lost the subsequent election. So where is the opportunity that we missed?

SPIEGEL: If you had accepted Olmert's offer early enough, it would have strengthened those who support the peace process. Instead, you now have to make do with Messrs. Netanyahu and Lieberman.

ABBAS: That's right. We were in a race against time to reach a solution. But I wasn't the one who thwarted an agreement. Olmert resigned from office shortly before the finish line.

SPIEGEL: Mr. President, the Palestinian camp is deeply divided. Your Fatah movement was unable to prevent Hamas's violent takeover in the Gaza Strip in 2007. How do you intend to guarantee that the same thing won't happen in the West Bank?

ABBAS: We have complete control over the security apparatus in the West Bank. The situation is 100 percent stabile. We will not allow the same thing to happen in the West Bank that happened in Gaza.

SPIEGEL: As long as Hamas controls Gaza, Israel will never agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

ABBAS: We spent two-and-a-half years conducting a dialogue sponsored by Egypt to seek reconciliation. It culminated in a document that we, representing Fatah, signed on Oct. 15, 2009. To this day, Hamas refuses to sign this document.

SPIEGEL: How can reconciliation be possible between the secular outlook of your Fatah movement and the Islamist worldview of Hamas?

ABBAS: We are a people with different religious and political sentiments. Some are extremely religious, some are strictly secular and others are moderate. But we have been accustomed to living together for the past 60 years. All of these movements exist within the PLO.

SPIEGEL: Would Marwan Barghuti, the hero of the second Intifada, who is imprisoned in Israel, be someone who could bring about reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas?

ABBAS: Marwan Barghuti is part of the leadership of Fatah. He is a member of the central committee of our movement. If he were released, it would be very advantageous for us. But not even Barghuti will be able to bring about reconciliation on his own. There is an external reason why Hamas isn't signing the document.

SPIEGEL: You are referring to Iran.

ABBAS: That's what you said.

SPIEGEL: Mr. President, you have announced that you will not run again for the office of president of the Autonomous Authority. Is this an admission that you will no longer be able to make the Palestinian dream of a sovereign state a reality?

ABBAS: That's absolutely correct. The road to a political solution is blocked. For that reason, I see no purpose in remaining president of the Autonomous Authority. And I also have a warning for the world: Do not drive the Palestinians to the point of total hopelessness.

Arabian-Persian Gulfs: An Introduction to Iran and the Gulf States

Sean Foley writes for Enduring America:

The news in recent weeks about the deployment of US soldiers and advanced weapons to Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reminds us of the central position of the Arab oil-producing monarchies in the Persian Gulf to international efforts to contain the Iranian nuclear program. Few states in the Middle East have closer links to the two chief actors in the dispute, Iran and the United States, or few would be more negatively affected if Washington attacked Tehran.

Yemen: A Beginner’s Guide to (The Perils Of) Intervention

The six Arab oil-producing monarchies in the Persian Gulf region --- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE --- are known as the Gulf Cooperation Council (or GCC) and have the largest oil and gas deposits in the world. GCC nationals and governments own significant portions of US and European corporations, while Europeans and Americans have invested heavily in the Council's states. The US Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, and the US military maintains a large presence in Qatar and Jebel Ali (UAE), the only port deep enough to berth an aircraft carrier in the Gulf. Finally, GCC states have bought billions of dollars worth of US and European advanced weapons and technology, including French nuclear reactors.


GCC ties with America and Europe in part reflect the history of tensions between the government of Shi'a and Persian-speaking Iran and the much smaller Arab and Sunni states of the GCC. Relations have been especially hampered by the 1979 Iranian revolution, the support of many GCC states for Baghdad during the Iran-Iraq war, and the outbreak of sectarian violence in Iraq. Iran has also threatened to seize GCC territory and to radicalize Shia populations living in the GCC. GCC governments worry that Iran could use nuclear weapons to dominate the Middle East, seal off the chief avenue for transporting oil and gas outside the Gulf (the Straits of Hormuz), or destroy desalinization plants in the GCC. These plants have accounted for as much as 50 percent of the water and electricity in some GCC states and are vulnerable to attack because they are large, utilize complicated machinery, and are built near coasts.

Nonetheless, senior GCC and Iranian officials frequently exchange official visits. Qatar has provided diplomatic support for Iran and its nuclear program at the United Nations and in the GCC. Oman cooperates with Iran in managing the Straits of Hormuz, while Qatar and Iran have jointly developed the North Gas Field, the largest field in the world. Dubai has a sizeable Iranian population and has run a highly profitable re-export trade with southern Iranian ports for decades. Iran has also become a strong market for GCC goods, especially those from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Ultimately, the GCC states will be a key barometer of stability in the Middle East. If the GCC states publicly and consistently side with Washington against Iran, then war may be inevitable. But if the GCC states continue to quietly cooperate with Washington while publicly talking to Tehran, a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear dispute may be attainable.

The Latest from Iran (7 February): Tremors

2045 GMT: Kalemeh is reporting that more than 1000 students at Sharif University demonstrated today over detentions of their classmates.

2030 GMT: Ali Kalai of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters has been re-arrested, and journalist Ehsan Mohrabi is reported to have been detained tonight.

1950 GMT: Criticising Khomeini. That's right --- days before the celebration of the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, 180 members of Parliament have signed a statement denouncing the Imam's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini. The dispute arose when Khomeini wrote the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezzatollah Zarghamai, complaining about "censorship" of his grandfather's speeches.

1930 GMT: Conservative Mischief. Ayande News stirs the pot with a story claiming that Ahmadinejad Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai went to Switzerland recently, not only to promote a "uranium swap" on Iran's Kish Island but also to pursue secret meetings on other issues, presumably with US officials. The paper, quoting French and Swiss newspapers, ponders what covert messages Rahim-Mashai brought.

No prizes here to guess the propaganda: the "conservative opposition" wants to stick Ahmadinejad, through his right-hand man, with the label of appeaser of Washington.

NEW Iran Advice Video: Palin to Obama “Bomb and You Get Re-Elected”
NEW Iran Special: The Weakness of the Regime “It’s Deja Vu All Over Again”
Iran: The “Reconciliation” Proposals of Karroubi’s Etemade Melli Party
Iran: “Conservative Opposition” Offer to Mousavi “Back Khamenei, We Sack Ahmadinejad”
Iran Space Shocker: Turtle-Astronauts Defect to West
Iran Document: Karroubi’s Open Letter for 22 Bahman (6 February)
Iran: Quick! Look Over There! The Nuclear Distraction
Iran Document: Iranian Journalists Write Their Overseas Colleagues About 22 Bahman
The Latest from Iran (6 February): Eyes on the Real Prize

1925 GMT: After all our frustration with the media coverage of the Ahmadinejad nuclear moves this week, full marks to Borzou Daragahi and Julian Barnes of the Los Angeles Times for nailing the story: "In a possible move to deflect attention from Iran's political woes, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Sunday ordered the nation's atomic energy agency to begin enriching uranium from 3.5% to 20% purity to serve as fuel for a Tehran medical reactor."


1900 GMT: Oh Dear G** (cont.). We've posted the video of Sarah Palin's political advice to Barack Obama: "Bomb Iran".

1715 GMT: Oh Dear G**. Sometimes objectivity has to give way before the train-wreck of politics and media coverage. This morning's charade plays out, as the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akhbar Salehi, dutifully responding to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's call, says, "As Iranian president [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] announced, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran will start enriching uranium to a level of 20 percent if talks on fuel swap fail to achieve an outcome."

Instead of calling out the pretence in the Ahmadinejad game --- if Iran can enrich uranium to 20 per cent and thus does not need a deal with the West, why haven't they been doing so for many months? --- the Western media chase this without question. Indeed, CNN elevates this to a crisis moment --- "a fresh challenge to Western powers bidding to rein in Tehran's galloping nuclear drive" --- never noticing the internal situation behind the President's move.

About the only political/media stunt more distressing/humourous than this is a woman named Sarah Palin, who today advises President Obama to ensure his re-election by bombing Iran.

1555 GMT: Revolving Door. While the regime is sweeping up activists and journalists, there have been releases as well. Ali Gholi Tabar and Morteza Saremi, members of the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution have been released on bail.

1415 GMT: More Detained Journalists (see 1205 GMT). Mahsa Jazini of Iran newspaper has been detained.

1400 GMT: The Other Side of the Mottaki Visit. While the international media was dwelling on the nuclear issue during Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's jaunt to the Munich Security Conference, others were highlighting the internal situation in no uncertain terms.



A United for Iran activist explains the issues in an interview with Germany's Welt TV.

1300 GMT: Here We Go. The Islamic Republic News Agency is featuring a statement from the Ministry of Intelligence, putting out the grand narrative --- four days before the demonstrations of 22 Bahman --- of protesters supported by the US and Israel:

Seven people organisationally linked to the counter-revolutionaries, the Zionist media and elements of the sedition have been arrested....A number of them were officially hired by the U.S. intelligence agency, the CIA.

The detainees, who were not named, were allegedly involved with the US Government-backed Farsi-language station Radio Farda and received training in Istanbul and Dubai in disrupting public order, spreading rumors and conducting sabotage. The seven supposedly played a significant role in "post-election riots", especially on Ashura (27 December).

1205 GMT: Latest arrests include journalists Zeinab Kazemkhah, Samiyeh Momeni, Ahmad Jalali-Farihani of Mehr, and Akbar Montajab of Etemade-Melli.


1155 GMT: Coming Out for 22 Bahman. Rah-e-Sabz has published a summary of calls from reformist and Green groups, including the Mohajedin of Islamic Revolution and Etemade Melli parties, for people to demonstrate this Thursday.

An English translation of the statement of the reformist Association of Combatant Clerics has now been posted.

1145 GMT: This Has Nothing to Do with 22 Bahman. Really. I can only report this "straight" and let everyone draw their own judgements. From Agence France Presse:

Iran said on Sunday its Internet connections will remain slow this week due to technical problems, ahead of anticipated protests by opposition supporters. Connections have been slow since last week and some email accounts have been unavailable for several hours each day.

"The cause of the reduced Internet speed in recent days is that part of the fibre-optic network is damaged," Communications Minister Reza Taghipour told Iran's state broadcaster. "The breakage will be repaired by next week and the Internet speed will be back to normal". ["Next week" begins 13 February.]

Taghipour said the undersea optic fibre across the Gulf between the Iranian port of Jask and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates had been damaged due to shipping traffic and anchoring. He also acknowledged that text messaging in Iran had been disrupted, blaming it on "changing software."

0940 GMT: Nuclear Fiddling (cont.). So why did Ahmadinejad shift again this morning on Iran's enrichment of uranium (see 0835 GMT)? Consider the setting, the exhibition of Laser Science and Technology Achievements: you can't exactly prove you're setting the scientific/technological worlds on fire if you put forward dependency on the "West" for your advances.

And consider the immediate cause: Ahmadinejad's declaration of self-sufficiency, as framed by state media, was "to meet the demands of the country's cancer patients". In other words, Iran is on the verge of running out of 20-percent uranium for its medical research reactors. That is the same concern that took it to the International Atomic Energy Agency last June with the offer to negotiate. And that concern is still very much present.

0840 GMT: Economy in the Pocket of Government? The Iranian Labor News Agency, in the context of the Government's budget proposals, offers an interesting overview of the Iranian economy.

0835 GMT: Nuclear Fiddling While XXX Burns. Days after he tried the headline approach of a deal on uranium enrichment with the West, President Ahmadinejad doubles back this morning in a televised speech with the declaration that Iran can be self-sufficient:

We had told them (the West) to come and have a swap, although we could produce the 20 percent enriched fuel ourselves. We gave them two-to-three months' time for such a deal. They started a new game and now I (ask) Dr Salehi (the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization) to start work on the production of 20 percent fuel using centrifuges....The doors for interaction are still open.

I leave it  for readers, in light of our analysis this morning, to fill in the XXXs with their interpretation. Meanwhile, the non-Iranian media --- apparently oblivious to the internal developments in Iran in the last 24 hours --- are following over themselves to feature Ahmadinejad's latest statement without considering why he made it.

0830 GMT: Journalist Jamileh Darolshafaie and her sister, music teacher Banafsheh Darolshafaie, have been arrested.

0815 GMT: We begin this Sunday morning, four days before 22 Bahman and the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution, trying to put together the dramatic and somewhat unexpected developments from the declarations of the opposition to the letter from a key MP to Mir Hossein Mousavi seeking the deal "Accept Khamenei, Reject Ahmadinejad". Our special analysis sets out why all of this is a sign of regime weakness.

A couple more supporting pieces of evidence this morning: Ayatollah Dastgheib, a persistent critic of the Government and indeed of the system, has declared, "One Person Cannot Rule 70 Million People". That's a pretty direct challenge to the Supreme Leader and velayat-e-faqih (clerical supremacy). Dastgheib, echoing the demands for freedoms made in last night's manifesto of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Party, declared:

It seems like today all the affairs of the country is in the hands of Revolutionary Guards and police and people have no say or will and this is the basis of the diversion from the principles of the revolution....

The armed forces, police, Revolutionary Guards and military should consider people’s benefit not their own benefit; they should guard people’s lives, belongings and dignity....The police should support the religious figures and scholars and not do something to isolate them, leaving no dignity for anyone except those who obey them.

Iran Advice Video: Palin to Obama "Bomb and You Get Re-Elected"

Not sure if this qualifies for Sunday Funnies/Sunday Horror Show:

Clear your head of all pre-conceptions about Ms Sarah Palin, former Vice Presidential candidate for the Republicans, to get your head about this: she is so keen on war against Iran that she is handing out this advice to ensure the re-election of the man who defeated her in the 2008 campaign and who still, as far as I know, is the leader of the opposing party.

And before you single out Ms Palin for your reaction, remember that she is only parroting advice handed out by self-styled "experts" like Daniel Pipes and Bret Stephens of The Wall Street Journal last week:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7G8RrZlwEQE[/youtube]

The Latest from Iran (7 February): Tremors

Iran Special: The Weakness of the Regime "It's Deja Vu All Over Again"

It's one of those phrases that I have always wanted to use in a news story. Yogi Berra, a great American baseball player but a notorious mangler of language, once said of the feats of the teammates, "It's like déjà vu all over again."

A few months we wrote of an attempt by the Ahmadinejad Government, as it set out the priority of a deal with the "West" on Iran's nuclear programme, that this was a blatant attempt to divert attention from internal political crisis. We added that, despite the headlines that the manoeuvre would get, the effort would soon be exposed.

Iran: The “Reconciliation” Proposals of Karroubi’s Etemade Melli Party
Iran: “Conservative Opposition” Offer to Mousavi “Back Khamenei, We Sack Ahmadinejad”
Iran Document: Karroubi’s Open Letter for 22 Bahman (6 February)
Iran: Quick! Look Over There! The Nuclear Distraction

In less than 24 hours, we were proved right as the "conservative opposition", figures like Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, and the Green movement attacked the Government on a number of fronts.

Yesterday, it was déjà vu all over again.


In the morning, all the buzz in the US and British press was Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's declaration in Munich that an agreement could be reached on a "swap" of uranium outside Iran. There was the inevitable cycle of surprise that Tehran could hold out the prospect and then of scepticism as "Western" politicians put the brakes on expectations.

We, however, were listening to the tick-tick-tick of opposition within the Iranian establishment. As early as Thursday, there was unsubtle signals from Parliament and key politicians that they were unhappy with President Ahmadinejad's declaration on national television that uranium could be sent outside Iran. Yesterday morning, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani left no doubt: his attack on the deal was not, first and foremost, an attack on the "West" but on his President.

Even this, however, was just another act in the nuclear sideshow. Throughout Saturday, only a few days before the demonstrations of  22 Bahman (11 February), the main event was the exposure of weakness and fear, not only in the Government but within the Iranian regime.

It came in yet more statements from opposition figures. Have no doubt: this is no longer a Mousavi or a Khatami or a Karroubi putting out a declaration but a co-ordinated campaign --- the "relay of opposition" --- to keep the Government unsettled and to build up momentum for 22 Bahman. Yesterday it was a statement from Mohammad Khatami, Mehdi Karroubi's forthright boost for protest and criticism of the regime in interviews and on his website, and then Karroubi's party Etemade Melli putting out a manifesto for this week's demonstrations.

The Government response? A whimper. As President Ahmadinejad went to a girls' school to proclaim the Revolution lived through more than 1200 education and sports projects, a couple of officials like Iran's police chief insisted that the protests would be broken. Bluster rather than substance was exposed, however, when it was the magazine of the Revolutionary Guards that was the key site for warning Karroubi-Khatami-Mousavi, "Repent or Else".

Or Else what? While the extent of the regime's crackdown should not be underestimated --- the detainees languish in prison, the Internet crawls to a near-stop --- the persistence of the opposition is clear outside Iran and, I suspect, inside the country. (Note that Mousavi started this latest cycle of declarations more than a week before 22 Bahman, probably to assure that --- despite the limits on communications --- there was enough time to get the message throughout Green networks.)

So last night it was not just a case of opposition confidence. It was also the clearest sign of regime fear. No firm predictions, but diligent historians may one day blow the dust off Saturday's open letter of prominent member of Parliament Ali Motahhari to Mousavi.

Of course, Motahhari tries to show strength through tough language: "Our gracious Leader in his recent speech has mildly described the actions of you and Karroubi as 'negligence'. These are signals for you to change your position with the aim of strengthening national unity." However, beneath the demand is a pleading: accept the supremacy of the Supreme Leader, and we will deal with this President who is undermining the Republic.

That letter,disseminated quickly in state media, is not one of a regime in control. That letter is not one of a regime in the blush of confidence. Even if the most cynical of us think it is a trick --- Mousavi acknowledges Khameini, walking away from the Green opposition, but Ahmadinejad stays --- you don't play tricks on opponents whom you think are on the verge of defeat.

Compare Motahhari's move with the previous pre-demonstration displays of machismo by the regime: the Supreme Leader's Friday Prayer of 19 June, the warnings before Qods Day in September not to take to the streets, the finger-wagging and attempts at intimidation before Ashura, even the threats of execution last week. The leaders in this system are shaking.

And, on the other side, compare the relay of statements from Karroubi-Khatami-Mousavi to their lack of statements before Ashura. This time they are vocal, this time there is no doubt that --- while the protest should be non-violent and respectful --- the dissent should be visible.

All the while, below the public level of the regime's fretting and the defiance of its challengers, the Green Movement(s) plan.

It is four days to 22 Bahman.