Gaza Video: "I want to save them ... but they are dead"

This is horrific. We debated on whether to post it but decided that the video, while emotive, for us captures the futility and horror of the conflict in Gaza.

Palestinian physician Dr Aboul Aish was waiting to be interview by Israeli television when his home was shelled:

[youtube]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=OLUJ4fF2HN4[/youtube]

[via vruz]

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (17 January)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (18 January)

Latest post: "I Want to Save Them But They Are Dead"
Latest Post: Israel Government Documents Confirms No Hamas Rockets 19 June-4 November 2008
Latest post: Olmert's War
Latest Post: The Further Adventures of Joe the Plumber/War Correspondent

1:15 a.m. At the very least, I'm grateful that there has been a cessation of violence in Gaza. My concern is that we're at the start of a different phase which will not bring resolution but further hardship.

Good night and peace to all.

12:30 a.m. Let's be clear: the Israeli move today is not a meaningful cease-fire. It is simply a declaration that they are going to hold their military forces in place, in effect reinstituting an armed re-occupation of Gaza.

Having failed to achieve --- so far --- its goal of removing Hamas from power, Tel Aviv is now tightening its constriction of Gaza, hoping that the economic and security situation will be so untenable that the Gazan leadership eventually put their hands up. And, if Hamas react by upping the ante with rocket fire --- in effect putting their heads above the parapet --- Israel will claim legitimacy to strike even harder with its military forces.

On the surface, it's a clever strategy --- already the cyber-campaign has been launched to claim that Israel has the moral high ground since Hamas has refused to surrender and vowed to continue resistance. But in a few days, I suspect we'll see the flaws in the grand design. Israel has already lost Egypt, its Arab partner in the scheme to overthrow Hamas, and there is a good chance it is re-fashioning a bloc in which Syria, Turkey, and Iran play leading roles. There is even a chance that Tel Aviv may lose American support for the scheme to bring back the Palestinian Authority: we shall see when the Obama Administration steps up to the plate next week.

And here's the weakness in the Israeli strategy that no one will acknowledge. If Hamas fell, who would come into power? The Palestinian Authority? No way --- Gazans who have suffered close to 1300 dead are not going to welcome back a leadership they chucked out in 2006, especially when that leadership privately aided and abetted the Israeli assault.

So that means Israel has to maintain both the economic pressure and the military presence --- either in Gaza or dangling like Damocles' sword on the border --- or pull back and accept a Gazan leadership which may be less amenable to a longer-term agreement than the present one was in mid-2008. And the longer that it maintains that pressure --- given that memories of the humanitarian cost of the last few weeks will not linger but be magnified by an Iron Lead occupation --- the further its international position will erode.



11:45 p.m. A more substantive Hamas response? Rocket hits Hetzarim airbase in Beersheba and six others land elsewhere in last hour.

11:30 p.m. Hamas has already struck back at Olmert's speech, declaring that Israel's announcement "does not end the resistance". It "reserves the right to continue resisting Israel with all means" if Israel does not withdraw and lift the blockade on Gaza.

11 p.m. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is making his national broadcast announcing an unilateral cease-fire, beginning at 2 a.m. Israel/Gaza time. He's declaring victory: Hamas have been dealt "a very serious blow", although they are "still not fully aware of how badly they have been damaged". Olmert is also holding up the "international agreement" to block arms to Gaza as a sign of Israel's triumph. And he is killing off any meaningful talks on Gaza, declaring that there will be no recognition of Hamas and that it has "no place in negotiations".

Immediate analysis: Olmert is blowing smoke in everyone's eyes and possibly his own. The Israeli objective was to knock Hamas out, not deliver a glancing military blow. Most of the organization's leadership is still alive, whether in Gaza or Damascus, and their base of support has probably been strengthened by the Israeli assault.

10:40 p.m. Rockets fired from Gaza have hit Ashkelon and Ashdod. Awaiting reports of any casualties.

10:20 p.m. It appears that a lot of people are scrambling to find a response to the Israeli unilateral cease-fire. Egypt, which increasingly looks like it has been wrong-footed by the manoeuvre, is loudly proclaiming that it has invited world leaders to Cairo on Sunday. The list including Palestianian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, the leaders of France, Germany, Spain, Turkey, and Britain, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, and representatives from the United States, Russia, and European Commission.

Reports indicate that Egypt wishes "to restore the truce between Israel and Hamas, and to lift the Israeli-led blockade on the strip". However, given Israel's clear indication today that it wishes to do neither, the more likely explanation is that Cairo is scrambling to protect its reputation in the Arab world after walking hand-in-hand with Tel Aviv and then getting pushed aside.

8 p.m. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has condemned "outrageous attack" by Israel on UN shelter/school. No doubt, after Minister of Defense Ehud Barak apologies for a "grave error" --- as he did yesterday over the shelling of the UN compound --- Ban will says "That's OK" and praise Israel --- as he did yesterday --- for its contribution to humanitarian corridor.

9:05 p.m. Amidst the diplomatic developments, a graphic reminder of the humanitarian issues that are far from resolution. Ahdaf Soueif in The Guardian of London today:

According to the medics here, to reports from doctors inside the Gaza Strip and to Palestinian eye-witnesses, more than 95% of the dead and injured are civilians. Many more will probably be found when the siege is lifted and the rubble is cleared. The doctors speak of a disproportionate number of head injuries - specifically of shrapnel lodged in the brain.

They also speak of the extensive burns of white phosphorus. These injuries are, as they put it, 'incompatible with life'. They are also receiving large numbers of amputees. This is because the damage done to the bone by explosive bullets is so extensive that the only way the doctors in Gaza can save lives is by amputating.

7 p.m. Confirmation coming through that Israel has declared a unilateral cease-fire. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert adds that Israel retains freedom to respond to Hamas attacks.

This is now a de facto military re-occupation of Gaza.

6:40 p.m. Gaza death toll now 1230, of whom 410 are children. More than 5300 wounded.

6:25 p.m. Apparently United Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon met some politicians in Lebanon today and issued a statement. I can't be bothered to say anything further except....

Come back, Kofi Annan, we miss you.

6:05 p.m. Further re-alignment: while we await political reaction to Israel's unilateral ceasefire, its move for a force to block "arms smuggling" to Gaza has been supported by Britain, France, and Germany, all of whom have offered warships.

I know it may be too early to mention this, but does anyone recall what happened when the US and European countries sent warships to control traffic in the Persian Gulf in the late 1980s?

5:55 p.m. Want a clue to the shift of position by Egypt's Hosni Mubarak this afternoon? Reuters reports, "Egyptian police used batons to beat protesters who rallied against the Israeli offensive on the Gaza Strip in central Cairo on Saturday." The demonstration was called by the Muslim Brotherhood.

And, in an interesting development, Mubarak will meet Palestianian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday. Is this to find a way to work with the new Israeli plan or a sign that they may back away from it?

5:50 p.m. The toll from the UN school/shelter shelled this morning by Israel is two dead and 25 wounded. Three daughters and a niece of a prominent Gazan doctor were killed as he was being interviewed on Israeli television, and at least 10 people were killed by a tank shell during a funeral wake in Gaza City.

Late afternoon update (5:30 p.m.): Egypt's Hosni Mubarak has blinked, at least publicly.

With Israel setting aside the Egyptian proposals for its unilateral cease-fire, Mubarak --- probably to cover his back, both with other Arab states and with his own population --- has had to put a bit of distance between himself and Tel Aviv. He has called for an immediate cease-fire and Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, and he gave a big clue as to the reason for Israel's decision to go it alone, declaring that Egypt would not accept an international monitoring force on its side of the Egypt-Gaza border.

1:50 p.m.To repeat for emphasis, because no one in media seems to take notice: Did Barack Obama and his advisors know of and agree to the Rice-Livni understanding for US-Israeli effort to block arms smuggling to Hamas? And did they anticipate the unilateral Israel ceasefire?

1:30 p.m. Just announced that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will make a televised address today. Get ready for that unilateral ceasefire.

12:20 p.m. Hamas makes its initial diplomatic play today: Osama Hamdan calls on regional states to stand by Gazan "resistance" and on Europe to cut ties to Israel.

12:10 p.m. An interesting twist in the latest analysis from the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz. The piece by Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff starts off to find, "Who is really winning the war in Gaza?". However, while wandering about looking for the victory --- maybe Hamas is split between its Damascus and Gazan branches --- they actually point to Israel's inability to define its political objective:

The most effective Israeli deterrence, [advisors to Minister of Defense Ehud Barak] said, had already been achieved by the end of last week. When Barak asked just when, in their opinion, Israel ought to pull out of Gaza, most of the participants answered: Yesterday.

This uncertainty, "What have we really achieved?", may explain the admission in the conclusion that Israel's war has been far from noble:

It is a little difficult to understand how a war, albeit necessary and justified, that includes the dropping of one-ton bombs from a height of 30,000 feet on a densely populated city can stir such national pride. The most nauseating of these new anthems explains that the IDF is the "army of the heroes of glory" and promises to give a hug to each and every one of these heroes, from the lowliest private all the way up to the chief of staff. Just one more reason to hope it all ends quickly: Then these cloying efforts will pass, too.

11:20 a.m. Of the 1199 Gazans killed to date, 410 are children, 108 are women and 118 are elderly.

11:10 a.m. Want to know the American strategy behind this morning's Israeli unilateral cease-fire? Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice after signing agreement with Israeli Foreign Minsiter Tzipi Livni to halt arms smuggling: "It will be clear that Mahmoud Abbas is demonstrating that he will be the Palestinian leader for all the Palestinian people."

11:05 a.m. This is the deadliest 48-hour period in the conflict, with more than 160 Gazans killed.

11 a.m. UN official Chris Gunness: several shells hit the school/shelter this morning with one "direct hit", killing two and wounding 14 as hundreds took refuge. They are keeping lists for an investigation "to see if war crimes have been committed".

10:55 a.m. Confirmation that the Israeli unilateral cease-fire leads immediately to an open-ended occupation: an official tells Agence France Press, "Israeli troops would remain inside the territory for an unspecified period."

Which in turn means that fighting will continue at some level --- a Hamas official has just told AFP that they will continue to battle occupying forces.

10:40 a.m. Gazan death toll now close to 1200.

10:30 a.m. United Nations officials are calling for investigation of this morning's shelling of a UN school/shelter which killed at least two children.

Five rockets have been fired into southern Israel, after 22 were launched on Friday.

Morning update (10 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The key development of the day, the Israeli Cabinet declaration of a unilateral cease-fire,  is still awaited.Already, however, it is being reported that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will follow up the announcement with a visit to Egypt on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Hamas representatives are in Cairo. It will be intriguing to see how the Egyptians will explain Tel Aviv's decision or if they even try to do so. There is also an interesting 48-hour period between yesterday's summit in Qatar and the gathering of Arab countries for an economic meeting in Kuwait, where the two emerging blocs (the Egypt-led bloc against Hamas and the Syria-led bloc urging strong support of the organisation) will encounter each other for the time.

A symbolic but pointed development at the United Nations General Assembly, where the 192-member body voted 142-6 with 8 abstentions demanded "full respect" of last week's Security Council resolution for an immediate cease-fire. The debate was dominated by harsh denunciation of Israel and marked by arguments when Egypt and the European Union tried to push through an alternative motion that was less criticial of Tel Aviv.

And, during this diplomatic endgame --- which is far from being an endgame, only the start of a new phase of the conflict --- the military assault and civilian deaths continue. Two children were killed when Israeli artillery shells hit a United Nations school north of Gaza City. Three Gazans will killed in a tower block and two others slain in Khan Younis.

The Further Adventures of Joe the Plumber/War Correspondent

On Thursday, Mike Dunn brought us up-to-date with the intrepid adventures of Joe "the Plumber" Wurzelbacher. Sent by the pretend Internet television network Pajamas TV (here's a tip: "Pajamas" usually doesn't convey a sense of authority) to cover the Gaza conflict, Joe established his reporting ability with the paradox that "I think the media should be abolished from, you know, reporting."

Despite this seemingly definite conclusion, Joe has pressed ahead with, if not reporting, uttering snap evaluations from "what he's heard on the news". Here is his video assessment on Wednesday of Hamas' apparent offer to negotiate a cease-fire: "The one detail that I think is kinda silly is that they want to open up the borders, some of the crossings, which my personal opinion, I hope Israel doesn't do....If Hamas decides they want concessions, then hopefully I think they [Israel] wouldn't do it, it wouldn't be smart for them, because it would give Hamas a chance rearm and do it all over again....The Hamas Charter calls for wiping out an entire race."

And, by the way, apparently Osama bin Laden "is a national hero to Hezbollah, Hamas".

I'm telling you --- Ayman Moyheldin, the wimpy Al Jazeera correspondent who's reporting from a Gaza City rooftop rather than a tiny booth in Israel (and who probably can't clear out a sink trap), better watch out for his job.

Update: Israeli Government Confirms No Hamas Rockets 19 June-4 November 2008

On Thursday, we reported on the Israeli Government's distribution to foreign journalists of a document which said that 1) only 20 rockets were fired into southern Israel in the cease-fire period between 19 June and 4 November 2008 and 2) those rockets were fired by "splinter groups" rather than Hamas.

Now, thanks to our reader Mae, we have located the original report, which comes from the Intelligence and Terrorism Center. In December 2008, they summarised "The Six Months of the Lull Arrangement":

The lull was sporadically violated by rocket and mortar shell fire, carried out by rogue terrorist organizations, in some instance in defiance of Hamas (especially by Fatah and Al-Qaeda supporters). Hamas was careful to maintain the ceasefire....Between June 19 and November 4, 20 rockets (three of which fell inside the Gaza Strip) and 18 mortar shells (five of which fell inside the Gaza Strip) were fired at Israel.

So why did rocket fire from Hamas resume?

On November 4 the IDF carried out a military action close to the border security fence on the Gazan side to prevent an abduction planned by Hamas, which had dug a tunnel under the fence to that purpose. Seven Hamas terrorist operatives were killed during the action. In retaliation, Hamas and the other terrorist organizations attacked Israel with a massive barrage of rockets. Since then, 191 rockets and 138 mortar shells have been fired.

Olmert's War: How the Prime Minister Took Israel Further into Gaza

In today's Ha'aretz, Aluf Benn has a stunning analysis (reprinted in full below), supported by a wealth of inside information, of the battles within the Israeli Cabinet over the ground offensive in Gaza:

[Prime Minister Ehud] Olmert and [Defense Minister Ehud] Barak detest each other and both of them have only contempt for [Foreign Minister Tzipi] Livni, whom they view as inexperienced. Olmert supposedly respects Barak's security record but is actually using it against him. In the prime minister's narrative, Barak was hesitant, did not want to launch the operation, placed obstacles before each stage and was ready to stop it a while ago. Before every decision, Barak and the Israel Defense Forces' top brass presented lengthy timetables and warned of heavy losses among the soldiers, on the home front and among Palestinian civilians. In Olmert's view, all their assessments were wrong.

The only problem with Benn's analysis is that it is incomplete. He attributes the difference in positions to Olmert's focus on Gaza while Barak and Livni had an eye on February elections. Fair enough, but he might have also mentioned that Olmert is trying to wipe away the stain of his failure in the 2006 war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Even more important, it should be noted that it is Olmert, the politician, who is pressing the military campaign while it is Barak, heading the military, who is looking at political considerations and urging a more restrained Israeli position. While Olmert may revel in the short-term military success, it is the politics of occupation that may ultimately prove Barak right.



Unlike Livni and Barak, Olmert is focusing on Gaza, not elections

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert this week likened Israel's situation in the confrontation with Hamas to that of a mountain climber. "When the Guinness Book of Records enters the record set by someone who conquered a peak, he must have been on the peak for a certain amount of time before the record is registered," Olmert explained to his interlocutor. "Israel has a hand on the peak, the slope is slippery, but the goal is within reach. When we get there, we have to stay there for a while."

This is the narrative Olmert is formulating as the Gaza operation seems to near its end. He maintained his determination and tenacity even when the troika's two other members, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, wanted to stop. The successful, highly popular war was his. They were bothered by next month's elections, and this influenced their approach, while he, who is not running for anything, concentrated on running the war.

Olmert and Barak detest each other and both of them have only contempt for Livni, whom they view as inexperienced. Olmert supposedly respects Barak's security record but is actually using it against him. In the prime minister's narrative, Barak was hesitant, did not want to launch the operation, placed obstacles before each stage and was ready to stop it a while ago. Before every decision, Barak and the Israel Defense Forces' top brass presented lengthy timetables and warned of heavy losses among the soldiers, on the home front and among Palestinian civilians. In Olmert's view, all their assessments were wrong.

Olmert has no doubt that the one who was right about it all was Yuval Diskin, the head of the Shin Bet security service, who, together with Mossad espionage agency chief Meir Dagan, presented a tough line in the troika meetings and pressed for the operation to continue. Both of them backed Olmert, who talked about "a success strategy and not an exit strategy." Some gained the impression that Diskin has a "magical influence" over the prime minister. He opposed the earlier cease-fire with Hamas, he evaluated the balance of forces correctly, he was not moved by the pressures.

During Monday night's troika meeting, Olmert, after listening to the proposals made by Barak and Livni, produced an intelligence document stating that Hamas was drawing encouragement from the comments of the defense and foreign ministers and discussing the possibility that if they manage to hold out a little longer, they might secure a victory over Israel. A "senior security figure" supported Olmert: "We are closest to and farthest away from the achievement: close on the ground, but far away because of what is going on in the political echelon, because we are busy pressuring ourselves and being afraid of ourselves."

An irresponsible adventurer?

As early as last week, Barak and Livni reached the conclusion that the Gaza operation had accomplished all it could and that continued military pressure would only harm Israel and heighten the chance of military and international complications. Despite their political rivalry, Barak and Livni presented a similar approach, which brings to mind the similarity of their election slogans on billboards. Barak was afraid of an operational glitch that would cause the deaths of numerous civilians in Gaza; Livni was upset by the humanitarian crisis in the Strip and by the diplomatic and legal price Israel would pay after the war.

From their perspective, Olmert looked like an irresponsible adventurer, who had, in the course of the war, become addicted to glory and lost touch with reality. It happened in Lebanon in 2006 and now again in Gaza. Once again he was leading Israel into a collision with a wall. They, too, do not understand what Olmert means by "the continuation of the operation." After all, he knows as well as they do that Barack Obama will take the oath of office as president of the United States next Tuesday, and that the last thing he wants to see after his inauguration ceremony is a map of Gaza on his desk in the Oval Office. And that if the war does not end by Tuesday, Obama will mercilessly bring down the curtain on it. Barak spoke this week with his counterpart and friend Robert Gates, the U.S. secretary of defense, who will stay on under Obama. It is a safe guess that he picked up the spirit of the new commander-in-chief from him.

Internally, too, Olmert found himself increasingly isolated. The army joined Barak's call for a cease-fire. The GOC Southern Command, Yoav Galant, who came across as an activist pushing for more, said the conquest of Gaza was within reach - if the military echelon could promise him "a year" to mop up the occupied area. Even Diskin, according to another account, asked for five months to conclude the preventive operations. It is the wont of officers and officials to show determination and tenacity, ostensibly, while leaving it to the political echelon in charge to curb them - to restrain stallions, as Moshe Dayan put it. Of them it will not be said, as Olmert said of the IDF senior officer corps in 2006, that they "did not present plans" to the political echelon.

The wily politician?

On Monday the troika held a lengthy meeting, which ended well after midnight. As usual, there are conflicting versions about what transpired. Olmert's impression was that Barak and Livni were speaking softly, with the tape recorder documenting their remarks, and then shouting aloud to the reporters outside. Their impression was that behind the prime minister's talk about determination and courage lay the wily politician Olmert, who maneuvered them into a decision to continue the operation under the guise of "waiting for answers from Egypt." They are two and he is one, but he has the power.

The next day, things took a different turn. Olmert became entangled in an unnecessary and stupid incident with the U.S. administration after boasting of getting President Bush to interrupt a talk he was giving so that Olmert could tell him to order Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to change her intended vote on a cease-fire resolution in the Security Council. Rice supposedly emerged "shamefaced." The administration responded brutally, presenting Olmert as a teller of tales. There has been no love lost between Olmert and Rice since the Second Lebanon War, and he often complained about her to the president. But until this week's incident, he did so discreetly. His verbal blundering during a visit to Ashkelon strengthened Barak and Livni's claims that Olmert was losing it.

Olmert did not convene the troika on Tuesday and apparently was in no hurry to return phone calls from the defense minister and the foreign minister. The result was a wave of wicked rumors that he had disappeared or had been hospitalized. His office managed to allay reporters who called to ask about the prime minister's whereabouts. Olmert gained another day, but Barak lost his patience; his call for a cease-fire was the main headline in Haaretz the next day.

In the meantime, Hamas' determination also faltered, from a perspiring Ismail Haniyeh on television on Monday, to the announcement that the organization had accepted the Egyptian initiative for a cease-fire on Wednesday evening. Yitzhak Rabin once said that there is generally no military decision in Israeli-Arab wars. So how does one know who won? Simple: The side that requests a cease-fire first is the loser.

During the troika's next meeting, on Wednesday, the atmosphere was far more conciliatory. The discussion focused on the preparation for Amos Gilad's visit to Cairo the following day, to conclude the cease-fire terms. In a parallel move, Livni worked out a draft agreement with the U.S. administration for cooperation in preventing arms smuggling into Gaza. The final decision on ending the operation awaited Gilad's return, yesterday evening.

Problematic successes

What can we learn from this story? First, that it is impossible to explain the Israeli leadership's decision-making on the basis of a theoretical model formulated by a committee of inquiry, or proposals made by strategic experts and consultants. No model can factor in the passions, the personal rivalries, problems of character and political constraints faced by decision makers, all of which can decisively affect the outcome.

Second, every investigation focuses on what happened and not on what might happen in the future. The Winograd Committee, which examined the conduct in the Second Lebanon War, emphasized the "process," the need for prior preparation and the examination of alternatives before entering battle. It looked at the failed battles in Lebanon but did not consider the question of how to pull out of an operation that appears to be successful. The events of the past week show that successes, too, sometimes cause problems.