The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (14 January)

Latest Post: Gaza Diaries --- Dying and Awaiting Death
Latest Post: Alive in Gaza Audio and Written Blogs --- "We Do Not Know What Tomorrow is Holding for Us"
Earlier Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (13 January --- Evening)

7:20 p.m. Sky News in Britain is claiming that Hamas has agreed "in principle" to Egyptian proposals. Unclear, however, if Sky report is based on an earlier announcement by Spanish Foreign Ministry, now retracted. Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan said earlier to Al Jazeera that "points of difference" remained over the Egyptian proposals, while Hamas spokesman in Syria said agreement had been reached.

More when we get out of a bloggers' gathering in Birmingham.

6:30 p.m. The long-term effect of the Israeli invasion? From today's Washington Post:

A cornerstone of Israel's strategy in Gaza is to crush Hamas's will to fight, especially its determination to fire rockets into southern Israel. But in interviews here with wounded supporters of the Islamist militia, Israel's assaults appear to be breeding more recruits and more popular support for Hamas.

Men who say they have never fought before or were not Hamas loyalists now vow to join the struggle against Israel when they return to Gaza. They include policemen and other professionals who form part of the backbone of Gazan society.

6:05 p.m. While awaiting developments, I found the opening to this report in The New York Times gets to the heart of the political/military matter:

Despite heavy air and ground assaults, Israel has yet to cripple the military wing of Hamas or destroy the group’s ability to launch rockets, Israeli intelligence officials said on Tuesday, suggesting that Israel’s main goals in the conflict remain unfulfilled even after 18 days of war.

The comments reflected a view among some Israeli officials that any lasting solution to the conflict would require either a breakthrough diplomatic accord that heavily restricts Hamas’s military abilities or a deeper ground assault into urban areas of Gaza. 

5:30 p.m. We've just posted an update on two Gaza accounts, the words of a four-year-old girl in a hospital and the extraordinary "Gaza Diary" of Safa Joudeh.



5 p.m. The latest update from the United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator, current to 5 p.m. yesterday:

Civilians, notably children who form 56 percent of Gaza’s population, are bearing the brunt of the violence. As one of the most densely populated places in the world, more civilians risk being killed or injured if the conflict continues. The parties to conflict must respect the norms of International Humanitarian Law (IHL), in particular the principles of distinction and proportionality.

4:45 p.m. The Gazan death toll, according to medical services, has passed 1000. Beyond the morbid symbolism of passing that mark, a colleague at lunch has offered the following: given the Gaza population of 1.5 million, this is the equivalent in US of 200,000 dead.

3 p.m. So here's the statement from Ban Ki-Moon in Cairo:

I repeat my call for an immediate and durable cease-fire. I've been urging in the strongest of possible terms all sides must stop fighting now. We don't have any time to lose.

A statement which, I fear, is spitting into the wind: no evidence of any advance from Ban's talks with the Egyptians.

Afternoon update (2 p.m. Israel/Gaza time): No significant word from Ban Ki-Moon's talks in Cairo. Periodic gunfire and bombings in Gaza City.

Peripheral news: a chap named Osama bin Laden has issued a statement on Gaza, calling for "jihad".

11:05 a.m. Juan Cole considers one of the important effects of the conflict, a souring of relations between Turkey and Israel.

11 a.m. Gazan death toll now 978 with more than 4500 wounded.

10:45 a.m. Huge development which effectively means no advance in the diplomatic process.

Ha'aretz reports on the split in the Israeli Cabinet: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who wants to press ahead with military operations, is refusing to meet with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, both of whom support a cease-fire: "On Wednesday, he will not convene the political-security cabinet to discuss whether the operations should go on."

10:40 a.m. Watching an extraordinary "Inside Story" from Al Jazeeera on protests and the Gaza conflict. Joshua Muravchik of the American Enterprise Institute is close to screaming at the other participants and making statements such as "The Hamas leadership is in a bunker underneath al Shifa hospital" (hmmm.....), "There was not a daysince the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza that went by without a Hamas rocket fired into Israel" (false --- for example, official Israeli figures show only one rocket fired into Israel in July 2008) and "There was no blockade" (I leave that one up to you).

It's simple for Muravchik: Israel and Hamas are "morally unequal".

10:25 a.m.  Global Voices has just posted the heart-felt but disturbing reflections of a Tel Aviv construction worker who worked alongside six Gazans for 18 months in 1996-97. Despite the passage of time, it is well worth a read:

I and most other non-Gazans would break down after a week of such a schedule, but our Gazans lived like this for decades. Up until the day the [Gaza Strip] was shut down once and for all, and the life of people there grew even worse. […] Having seen all this, I understood even then that it was impossible to defeat these people or break them down. They can either be eliminated, or we can learn to live together with them. There are no other options.

(Hat tip to Lisa Goldman.)

10 a.m. This from The Independent of London:

At least three Palestinians in Gaza were shot dead yesterday after Israeli soldiers fired on a group of residents leaving their homes on orders from the military and waving white flags, according to testimony taken by the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem. The testimony was rejected by the military after what it said was a preliminary investigation.

9:50 a.m. Our colleagues at "Alive in Gaza" have posted their first audio despatch, from photojournalist Sameh Habeeb in Gaza City.

Morning update (9:30 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): The overnight military pattern continued. Israeli airstrikes on more than 60 targets, as well as naval and land bombardment. Fighting as Israeli forces further secured their positions around Gazan cities, while in southern Gaza, Israeli planes used bunker-busting bombs on tunnels near Rafah.

The headline development is on the other side of Israel. Three rockets from Lebanon, in the second launch in recent days, landed in northern Israel. The "National Front" has claimed responsibility,but worryingly CNN is already putting out the line that "nothing happens without the wink and nod of Hezbollah".

In what is likely to be a depressing diplomatic sideshow, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon visits the region today, seeing Egyptian and Arab League leaders on Wednesday and Israeli leaders on Thursday. Without visible support from another international entity, such as the United States or the European Union, or a parallel effort by the Arab League, I am afraid the trip will be publicity without substance (although if Ban can use the trip to get some movement on the humanitarian front, it may not be without value).

Meanwhile, the United Nations General Assembly will convene, offering its own symbolism of a denunciation of Tel Aviv. The President of the General Assembly, Miguel d'Escoto Brockmann. has condemned the Israeli attacks as "genocide" against the Palestinian people.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (13 January)

Latest Post: Israel Requests, Bush Responds: The US Abstention on the UN Cease-Fire Resolution
Latest post: The "Violent Semi-Peace" in Iraq

5:10 p.m. A piece of critical information from Al Jazeera: Israeli Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad still has not gone to Cairo --- he was supposed to be there Monday morning. Analysis is that Israel is sitting back, waiting for Egypt to get agreement from Hamas on conditions that Israel wants on monitoring of the border and tunnels.

Al Jazeera analyst: "Hamas is being asked to raise the white flag."

5:05 p.m. Al Jazeera live shots of Israeli attack helicopters as operations continue around Gaza City and battles in the south of Gaza, with Israel targeting tunnel network. Al Jazeera correspondents project "Phase 3" within 24-48 hours.



4:50 p.m. How to Sit on A Fence: At her confirmation hearings, Secretary of State-elect Hillary Clinton --- in her first comments on the Gaza crisis --- says US must back Israeli security needs but acknowledge Palestinian aspirations.

4:30 p.m. A curious lull in news: CNN website uses the dramatic headline "Israel tanks roll into Gaza City" but fighting still appears to be on periphery of the city. Given pattern of recent days, it will be after dusk when Israel presses forward.

4 p.m. Red Cross president Jakob Kellenberger statement after visit to al Shifa hospital: "It hurts a lot when you've seen what I've just seen....A medical mission in such a conflict has to be perfected. These people cannot wait for days or even hours to be evacuated."

3:15 p.m. Speaking to Al Jazeera, Hamas official Ghazi Hamid expresses optimism about developments in Egypt-Hamas talks in Cairo.

3 p.m. The medical crisis escalates, despite the supposed "humanitarian corridors": 28 clinics, almost half of Gaza's total, are closed, hospitals have only 6-8 hours of electricity each day, and ambulances can't move for fear of being fired upon

2:15 p.m. The head of the Red Cross has arrived for three days of talks with Israeli and Palestinian officials, including a visit to al Shifa hospital.

1:55 p.m. Al Mezan Center for Human Rights: "At least 85% of the casualties [are] civilian non-combatants." The Center estimates up to 200,000 Gazans, out of a population of 1.5 millions, have been forced out of their homes.

1:40 p.m. Gazan resident Fares Akram in The Independent:

We don't even see Hamas police in the streets. It isn't that they've gone underground, but they are wearing civilian clothes and they don't dare to show their weapons, or drive their blue police cars which are all still parked in the same places they were in when this started.

Not that there is any law and order to enforce. The prisons have been emptied by the bombing and some have taken advantage of the chaos to carry out vengeance killings or to settle clan feuds.

1:35 p.m. Medical clinics run by Christian Aid and the Catholic organisation Caritas were destroyed in Israeli airstrikes on Monday. Meanwhile, less than 200 of the 1200 hospital beds in Egypt reserved for Gazan victims have been filled.

1:15 p.m. Mahmoud Abbas has resurfaced, accusing Israel of trying out to "wipe out" the Palestinian people by refusing to cease-fire in Gaza

11:40 a.m. Sharp and pertinent observation from Al Jazeera analyst: Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas has now absented himself from the process and "may well pay the political price" when conflict is over.

11:25 a.m. Two Arab blocs, with total of seven members in Knesset, banned from standing in forthcoming Israeli elections.

11:20 a.m. Division in Israeli Cabinet: Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni prefers unilateral Israeli declaration when "objectives are achieved"; Defense Minister Ehud Barak prefers cease-fire; Prime Minsiter Ehud Olmert pressing for more military operations.

11:10 a.m. Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan on Al Jazeera: Hamas representatives in Cairo "have the authority and can make their conclusions" to reach an agreement. Hamas conditions: no acceptance of international forces in Gaza, Israeli withdrawal, full opening of border crossings.

11:00 a.m. Question to Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: "Are there any quiet, safe places in Gaza now?" Moyheldin: "The short answer to no. There simply are no safe places in Gaza."

11 a.m. Reports of Israeli soldiers wounded, one critically, entering "booby-trapped house".

10:30 a.m. From Mohammed, a blogger in Gaza, about the fighting south of Gaza City:

i noticed a message from areej, my uncle mohammads wifes: the tanks have reached us, theres smoke in the house, please pray for us.

i called her. i could hear explosions just outside, and machine gun fire. just before 2 am, israeli tanks and special forces had entered an area just outside tal al-hawa, near the community college. they'd come up against surprisingly touigh and violent resistance. tanks firing randomly into neighbrhoods. white phosphorous munitions used to cover an aparent retreat. the entire apartment is filled with white smoke, the kids are up, screaming. there seems to be a definite retreat, but they're expecting the worst. they say to please keep praying for their safety and for the resistance. they dont know if they will live.

9:50 a.m. Looks like --- by skill or fortune --- our analysis is on the mark: Ha'aretz reports, "Olmert seeks push in Cairo talks before Gaza op enters third stage".

What we didn't know, however, is that Ministry of Defense official Amos Gilad didn't make it to Cairo on Monday. However, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak met last night, and Olmert then told a series of foreign leaders that the talks with Egypt would be proceeding.

On a separate track, Hamas leaders arrived in Cairo last night for their own discussions.

Morning update (9:40 a.m. Israel/Gaza time): More of the same on military front, as Israel's bombardment continues and its forces ring Gaza City. Israeli tanks are edging into the city from the northwest and the northeast, approaching Hamas' preventative security building. Heavy fighting in Tal al-Awa, south of the city. In the south, fighting east of Khan Younis; Ayman Moyheldin of Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli bombardment has reduced Rafah "to rubble".

Gazan death toll is now 919; 40 percent of dead are women and children. Israeli death toll is 13, of whom 10 are soldiers.

The Final Bush Legacy: Why the US Abstained on the Gaza Resolution

We were quite surprised when the US, represented by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, abstained in the UN Security Council vote on the Gaza cease-fire resolution late Thursday night. After all, as we noted yesterday, Rice had joined British Foreign Minister David Miliband and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner in the development of the resolution, in part to block the Libyan-drafted alternative.

Now we have a partial answer to the mystery:

The call that changed everything apparently came just as ministers and ambassadors were taking their seats in the council chamber. It was President George Bush for Ms Rice. Don't veto the resolution, he said, but don't vote for it either.

Apparently, Bush had just gotten off the phone with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who appealed to the White House to override the State Department and ensure that the US did not support the cease-fire call.

Since it was the British who drafted the resolution and did a lot of the heavy lifting to line up support, especially from Arab delegates --- "it was hairy there for the moment", said one British official --- the Foreign Office is none too impressed with Washington. (Which is why some of their staff gave this story to The Independent and to the Guardian)

So it's a final legacy for President Bush, refusing to back a cease-fire and effectively green-lighting Israel to carry on with the killing (of both Hamas fighters and civilians) in Gaza. But that leaves a further mystery: who really made the decision to pull away from the resolution?

In the history of this Administration, as detailed by writers like Barton Gellman, Thomas Ricks, and James Risen, the Vice President's office and the Pentagon have often bypassed and even trampled upon the State Department to push through their own strategic ideas. Well, Donald Rumsfeld and his deputies may be long gone, but Dick Cheney remains, at least for another 10 days.

So did the Vice President step in again or was it really "The Decider", as Bush likes to style himself, who did make a fateful decision?

Rolling Updates on Israeli Invasion of Gaza (5 January)

Later Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (7 January)

2:55 a.m. Downtime until the morning. Thanks for all your support and comments today.

2:30 a.m. The lull continues but, as former Israeli Ambassador to the UN Dan Gillerman denies on Al Jazeera that a "National Information Directorate" exists (which is a bold move, given that the NID was "outed" in The Observer of London on Sunday), signs that Israel's information campaign may not be able to hold open the window for military operations very long.

CNN International is not only leading with footage of the hospitals crisis in Gaza but pointedly noted they obtained this footage despite an Israeli-imposed ban on journalists inside the territory.

Israel tried to counter this by playing up their permission for 80 truckloads of aid (just over 1/10 the pre-conflict amount) into southern Gaza on Monday. On this evidence, this won't be enough to hold back mounting criticism.

1:25 a.m. Developments on the diplomatic front: Arab Foreign Ministers have met in New York but it is already clear that a Libyan-sponsored resolution, blocked by the US last weekend, is "dead". Instead, talk is of a French-drafted resolution, which Paris is hoping will be supported by Arab representatives. United Nations sources say this will include calls for an immediate ceasefire, a "humanitarian corridor" for aid, and a "monitoring mechanism". With the manoeuvring needed for any hope of passage, the resolution will not be brought up for a vote on Tuesday.

The Gazan death toll is now at least 548. UN officials in Gaza continue to emphasise that this is "a humanitarian crisis".


11:30 p.m. A bit of a lull in developments on military and diplomatic fronts. Al Jazeera reports that the fighting around Gaza City seems for an elevated area just outside the city which provides a vantage point across northern Gaza.

9:30 p.m. Al Jazeera's Ayman Mohyeldin on the current Israeli bombardment: "Almost every building in Israel's definition is a Hamas building."



9:05 p.m. Al Jazeera reports that Israeli forces trying to take strategic overlook looking down on Jabaliya refugee camp, the largest in Gaza.

8:55 p.m. Israeli bloggers claim that the English website of Al Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, has been hacked by Israel. Both English and Arabic sites of Al Qassam are currently offline.

8:50 p.m. CNN is way behind the story. As fighting intensifies around and possibly in Gaza City, this is their website lead: "Hamas militants fired dozens of rockets into southern Israel on Monday despite a 10-day Israeli military campaign that reportedly has left more than 500 Palestinians dead."

8:45 p.m. Arab foreign ministers, who have mostly sat on their hands during this crisis, finally decide they have to make some pretence at action. Palestine Authority, Libyan, Moroccan, and Jordanian ministers are en route to New York.

8:20 p.m. The explosions we noted an hour ago seem to be the "softening-up" artillery shelling for an Israeli advance on Gaza City. The armed wing of Islamic Jihad has told Al Jazeera that Israeli tanks are trying to move into the city, and Israeli sources have confirmed that a "major battle" is taking place on the northern outskirts.

7:20 p.m. Affidavit of "Maher Najjar, Deputy Director, Coastal Municipalities Water Utility" now on-line:

As of last night, there is no electricity at all in Gaza City....Two of the lines feeding electricity to Rafah, one from Israel and one from Egypt, have been damaged.... I have no additional diesel reserves, and I cannot obtain additional diesel right now. The water wells and sewage pumping stations that still have diesel will run out within a few days, others have none.

7:15 p.m. As Al Jazeera's Ayman Mohyeldin gives live report from Gaza City, massive explosion on-screen behind him. Moyheldin: "There's nowhere for the residents of that area to go....You're seeing a very modern army unleashing weapons on a defenceless population."

7:10 p.m. Most inept disinformation campaign: "Al Jazera" on Twitter --- Sample update: "The leaders of Hamas say 'we will hide as long as needed, our women and children will suffer for us'"

7:05 p.m. Al Jazeera correspondents reporting fireballs and "white explosions" in northern Gaza.

6:30 p.m. Following story in The Times of London that Israel used white phosphorous bombs to cover its ground invasion, Moussa el-Haddad, Gaza resident and father of blogger Laila el-Haddad ("Gazamom"), reports "series of bombs in a row, followed by a large white halo, white smoke; people in vicinity cannot breathe...irritation, and exposed areas [of body] become red, blistered, and itchy".

6 p.m. Hamas spokesman Moussa Abu Marzouk in Damascus to Reuters: Hamas is open to truce in Gaza but only if Israel lifts its blockade:

Any initiative not based on ending the aggression, opening the border crossings and an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip has no chance of succeeding.

5:55 p.m. Al-Jazeera reports that the first week of the Gaza offensive has resulted in estimated losses of $1.5 billion.

5 p.m. The statement of Hamas military spokesman Abu Ubeida is now summarised on-line: claims of one Israeli helicopter downed, one tank and one personnel carrier destroyed, one POW taken

4:55 p.m. Al Jazeera reports Al-Awda hospital in northern Gaza hit by two artillery shells

4:35 p.m. The Guardian of London is reporting "gun battles in the streets of Gaza City for the first time this morning"  with Israeli troops going house-to-house looking for Hamas fighters

4:20 p.m. Fares Akram, the Gaza correspondent for The Independent of London, writes about his father, killed by an Israeli bomb in northern Gaza on Saturday:

My father, Akrem al-Ghoul, was no militant. Born in Gaza and educated in Egypt, he was a lawyer and a judge who worked for the Palestinian Authority. After Hamas took over, he quit and turned to agriculture....

As a grieving son, I am finding it hard to distinguish between what the Israelis call terrorists and the Israeli pilots and tank crews who are invading Gaza. What is the difference between the pilot who blew my father to pieces and the militant who fires a small rocket? I have no answers but, just as I am to become a father, I have lost my father.

4:15 p.m. Al Jazeera: 70 percent of Gazans without clean drinking water, food distribution suspended in northern Gaza

Hassan Khalaf, director of Al Shifa hospital: "What is happening is genocide."

3:55 p.m. Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida says on Al Aqsa Television said on Monday that the group has "thousands" of fighters and will welcome Israel into Gaza "with fire and iron"

3:03 p.m. Al Jazeera reports eyewitness accounts of Israeli troops demolishing some houses and taking up positions on rooftops of others.

2:42 p.m. Now Livni sets out the rest of her strategy, pointing to restoration of Fatah/Palestinian Authority in Gaza --- Agreement on border crossings (and thus passage of aid) was in 2005 with EU and "legitimate" Palestinian Authority --- Hamas is "illegitimate"

Head of EU delegation: EU "insists on cease-fire at earliest possible moment", not after Israeli military operations --- We have difference in view from Israel on this: "This has to be clearly set."

2:34 p.m. If Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni sets out same line in private that she has just set out in public, there is no hope of any Israeli movement toward cease-fire --- Al Jazeera's Ayman Moyheldin: "Everybody here knows that European Union is peripheral....Israel is satellite of United States"

Livni lays out the political strategy of "moderates" with Israel against "extremists": "Everybody in this region needs to choose where he belongs" --- Hamas is connected with Iran, Damascus, and Hezbollah

2:25 p.m. Press conference of EU delegation and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has just started --- Livni: "Situation is that we face terror....Now we need to against terror, against Hamas."

2:22 p.m. Intriguing diplomatic manoeuvre: Speaker of Iranian Parliament Ali Larijani travelling to Damascus to meet Syrian President Bashir al-Assad and Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal.

2:20 p.m. YNet News reports 24 rockets fired at southern Israel with several people lightly wounded.

2:15 p.m. Al Jazeera is focusing on humanitarian crisis and now the increasing number of child fatalities:

[youtube]http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=_gEBO-6VRjs[/youtube]



12:35 p.m United Nations Relief and Works Agency representative tells CNN that 250,000 Gazans have no access to clean water. It is a "rapidly deteriorating situation".

Fuel terminal is due to reopen today. Israel says it is sending in 80 trucks today (compared to 750/day during the truce period).

12:30 p.m. Oxfam tell BBC that they cannot bring food into Gaza because of the security risk.

11:40 a.m. In case you missed it, this report from Israel's Ha'aretz:

The ground invasion was preceded by large-scale artillery shelling from around 4 P.M....Hundreds of shells were fired, including cluster bombs aimed at open areas.

11:05 a.m. The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator has issued an updated report, through 5 p.m yesterday, on the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza:

It is essential that patients and ambulances are able to reach hospitals, that agencies are able to access warehouses in order to conduct distributions. Currently movement within the Strip is severely challenged.

10:50 a.m. Yesterday we noted one of few examples of "Palestinian viewpoint" on CNN, the interview with Gazan resident Moussa el-Haddad and his daughter Laila in North Carolina. Interview has just been repeated on CNN International.

Laila el-Haddad is posting on events in Gaza via Twitter.

10:40 a.m. Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz calls for move from military operations to diplomacy:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy's visit to Jerusalem today provides Israel with an exit ramp from the fighting against Hamas in Gaza. Sarkozy proposes declaring a lull in combat, which would test whether Hamas would agree to halt firing rockets. Israel would do well to respond affirmatively to the proposal, which protects its right to respond with force in the event the Palestinians continue firing from the Gaza Strip.

Meanwhile, Wall Street Journal puts out Israeli public-relations line:

In the clearest break from a strategy it used to pursue Hezbollah militants in Lebanon in 2006, Israeli leaders have set out clearly defined -- and relatively modest -- expectations for the current Gaza offensive.

10:20 a.m. A day of activity on the diplomatic front, with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and a Hamas delegation in Cairo and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in New York. A European Union delegation is arriving in Egypt before continuing to Israel and possibly Palestinian territories.

On Sunday, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair met with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Sunday, and Russian envoy Alexander Saltonov met Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. Neither discussion produced any breakthroughs --- Livni pointedly rejected Saltanov's offer of communication with Hamas via Russia:

We are serious in our intention to harm Hamas and we have no intention to give them legitimize them and pass messages on to them. We have nothing to discuss with Hamas.

10:15 a.m. Israel/Palestine time: Israel has continued its aerial and artillery bombardment in support of its ground offensive, hitting 30 Hamas targets as well as a mosque which the Israeli Defense Forces claimed was storing weapons.

The Gazan death toll is now 521. At least 12 more civilians, including seven members of a family, have been killed in strikes on refugee camps and homes.

The IDF says 30 rockets were fired into southern Israel on Sunday. The number, while less than the number launched at the start of the 10-day conflict, is an increase from the the 20 fired on Saturday.

Most Gazans are confined to homes without electricity and with shortages of food and water.

Gaza Update (10 a.m. Israel/Palestine; 8 a.m. Britain): Israeli Manoeuvres in Paris?

Update to the Update: "Israel is discussing with Washington the possibility of establishing an international monitoring system that would keep Hamas from rearming during a cease-fire, and ensure an end to rocket attacks on Israel, said diplomats familiar with the discussions."

It seems almost callous to speak of a "routine" of Israeli airstrikes against Gaza, as more than 50 attacks were carried out on Thursday. In addition to the killing of Hamas leader Nizar Rayyan, Israeli raids hit the home of "senior Hamas military operative" Nabil Amrin, the Parliament building, the Ministries of Justice, Education, and Civil Defense, and a mosque in Jabaliya. The Israeli Defense Forces said more than 40 rockets were fired into Israel.

There may be a twist in the diplomatic tale, however. Israeli Tzipi Livni traveled to Paris to meet Prime Minister  Nicolas Sarkozy and Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, only 24 hours after a French proposal for a humanitarian truce was rejected by the Israeli Cabinet. Livni said that the Israeli attacks had "achieved changes" and said the aim was to "weaken Gaza".



One possibility is that the Israeli Government, which has just permitted the departure of foreigners from the Gaza Strip, could be preparing for a ground assault. The Foreign Minister's words, however, point to another possibility: could Livni be backing away from the objective, declared on the eve of the Israeli assault, of overthrowing Hamas? And does her statement of "achieved changes" indicate that Israel may be ready to pause?

Perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not, I noted this yesterday from Donald Macintyre in The Independent:

There was a moment, back at the end of July 2006, when the second Lebanon war might just have ended five or six days after it began. We now know that Tzipi Livni, Israel's Foreign Minister, expressed serious concern that Israel might be missing a chance to reach a peace agreement at least as good as the one which would come a full four weeks and many hundreds of casualties – on both sides – later.

Reportedly, it was Minister of Defense Ehud Barak rather than Livni who supported the 48-hour truce in Israeli Cabinet discussions. Yet, with Sarkozy pressing his own role as an international statesman and travelling to Israel on Monday, it appears negotiations are ongoing for some manoeuvre which will permit an easing of Israeli operations while allowing Tel Aviv to claim victory in its immediate aim of facing down Hamas.

As Livni said, somewhat cryptically, after Thursday's talks, "The question of whether it's enough or not [for a truce] will be the result of our assessment on a daily basis," she said.