Croatia: Out of the Presidential Election and into European Union?

EA correspondent Fulya Inci writes:

Last Sunday, Crotians voted in a presidential runoff. Ivo Josipovic, the candidate of the main opposition, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), won about 6o percent of the votes to defeat populist Zagreb Mayor Milan Bandic.

Current President Stipe Mesic interpreted the result as a victory for European Crotia. Josipovic told his celebrating supporters:

I want a European Croatia, a Croatia that will be one of the shining stars in the European sky. This would be not only through EU membership but by values that we stand for --- democracy, freedom, human rights, rule of law, minority rights and religious freedom.

Josipovic’s attitude during the presidential campaign has been largely supported by the media, contrary to the treatment of his rival, Bandic, who was kicked out of SDP after deciding to run for President. Bandic had claimed that Croatia would be returned to Communist rule under Josipovic and had turned to the influential Catholic Church for support.



In spite of his clear victory, the newly-elected President is likely to have difficulty solving current problems. Crotia faces the challenges of economic shrinkage, reforms needed for EU entry, and ongoing disputes with neighbouring countries, especially Serbia. Croatia and Serbia have filed lawsuits against each other at the International Court of Justice over alleged war crimes and Crotia’s relations with Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in February 2008.

Josipovic remains hopeful, “We all want a country where work is paid for and crime is punished… we will win the fight against the economic crisis, the fight against corruption and crime, the fight against poverty and misery.”

Josipovic will assume the Presidency on 18 February.

UPDATED Iran Video: Green Protest and the Iran-Belgium Football Match (14 January)

From the futsal (indoor football) match between Iran and Belgium:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXu9P8aDcbQ[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjUNR0sO42o[/youtube]

belgie- iran - foutsal friendly match
by siamakold

Latest Iran News (16 January): Ripples

2210 GMT: Wow, Couldn't See That Coming.

What we wrote at 0745 GMT: "Some media were looking forward to today's "5+1" (US, UK, Russia, China, France, Germany) meeting on Iran's nuclear programme. Even if that gathering had significance for the internal situation in Iran, it is unlikely to produce any results: China has declined to send a high-level official, blocking any move towards further sanctions on Tehran."

What Associated Press reported an hour ago: "Top diplomats from six key powers focused on possible new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program at a meeting Saturday, but reached no agreement, Russia's deputy foreign minister said."

NEW Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat’s Opposition On State Media (14 January — Part 3)
UPDATED Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat’s Opposition On State Media (14 January — Parts 1 and 2)
NEW Iran: The 15 Points of “The Secular Green Movement” (14 January)
NEW Iran Analysis: The “Opposition Within” and the Regime
Latest Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat’s Opposition On State Media (14 January)
Iran: Anger, Pain, & Fear — The Funeral of Professor Ali-Mohammadi
Latest Iran Video: Green Protest and the Iran-Belgium Football Match (14 January)
Iran: The Regime Censors the 1979 Revolution
Latest Iran Audio: The Last Lecture of Professor Ali-Mohammadi
The Latest from Iran (15 January): Refreshing?

2205 GMT: Writing in Exile. Nazila Fathi, The New York Times correspondent who fled her native country in June, has written an emotive account of post-election events and her departure. The article, however, also offers a powerful insight into how "new media" has re-shaped both opposition and coverage of it:

Last month, during and after the funeral of the reformist Grand Ayatollah Hossain Ali Montazeri, one of the demonstrators’ most useful tools was the Bluetooth short-range radio signal that Americans use mainly to link a cellphone to an earpiece, or a printer to a laptop. Long ago, Iranian dissidents discovered that Bluetooth can as easily link cellphones to each other in a crowd.

And that made “Bluetooth” a verb in Iran: a way to turn citizen reportage instantly viral. A protester Bluetooths a video clip to others nearby, and they do the same. Suddenly, if the authorities want to keep the image from escaping the scene, they must confiscate hundreds or thousands of phones and cameras.

The authorities have tried to fight back against such techniques and the Internet itself, but have fallen short. In November they announced that a new police unit, the “cyber-army,” would sweep the Web of dissent. It blocked Twitter feeds for a few hours in December, and an opposition Web site. But other blogs and Web sites mushroomed faster than the government could keep up.

2155 GMT: Ayande News continues to poke at the Government. It asks if Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, who warned Iranians against using e-mails or text messages to organise protests, has read the Constitution, since it forbids the monitoring of private communications.

2150 GMT: Fars News is reporting that a suicide bomber has been killed in an explosion in Mashhad.

2145 GMT: We have returned from a break to post the video and translation of the third part of Dr Javed Etaat's sustained criticism of the regime on an Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting programme.

1840 GMT: On a fairly quiet day, we'll be on limited service this evening. Do keep sending in information, comments, and ideas.

1650 GMT: Mehdi Khalaji, the US-based journalist and scholar, has written an open letter to the Supreme Leader concerning the arrest of his father, Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Khalaji.

1640 GMT: Atomic Diplomacy. Iran has launched a website to explain and promote its nuclear programme.

1630 GMT:Journalist Nader Karimi, who was arrested in November 2008, has been sentenced to 10 years in prison.

1550 GMT: A Technical Announcement. The "diversion" attack on Iran Hezbollah, and the counter-attack, are on the Persian landing page www.hizbollah.ir/fa. The main page www.hizbollah.ir is now 100% Hezbollah with no Iranian Cyber-Army/Iranian Green Army/getasexpartner messages.

1520 GMT: Battle of the Cyber-Warriors. A twist in the tale of the hacking of the Iran Hezbollah (Party of God) website (see 0750 GMT). The takeover of the site by the "Iranian Green Army", with a rather rude message and alternate domain name, has been superseded by a counter-takeover by the "Iranian Cyber Army". There is now a smiling Ayatollah Khamenei with the statement, "Site has been returned,and the Hacker(s) Has Been Traced By Iranian Cyber Army , We will catch them as soon possible."

Ahh, yes, the Iranian Cyber Army, the same outfit that claimed the diversion-of-traffic attacks on the opposition website Mowj-e-Sabz and Twitter. Given their service to a group close to the Iranian regime, should we conclude that the ICA is not just a collection of punk kids causing trouble?

(Just a tip, guys. If you are working for Hezbollah and the regime, you might want to check that domain name. The Supreme Leader now appears below the domain "http://www.getasexpartner.com/hiz-bol.htm".)

1510 GMT: Ali-Mohammadi's Protest. Iranian activists have posted a letter, including the signature of Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, asking for a cessation of violence against students.

1500 GMT: Iranian state media is reporting that the trial of French student Clotilde Reiss, arrested this summer, concluded today. There is no further word of verdict or sentencing.

1455 GMT: According to Rah-e-Sabz, Reza Talalei, a member of the Expediency Council, said at the Council session today that “post-election events are a result of the Government’s wrong actions”. He called for freedom of political activity, freedom of speech, and humane treatment of Iranian people, who would “answer such in kind.” A return of peace to society and an opening up of political to all groups was “paramount”.

1445 GMT: Thanks to our friends at The Flying Carpet Institute, we've posted the video and translation of the second part of Dr Javad Etaat's criticisms of the regime, which aired on the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting on Thursday.

1420 GMT: Thanks to an EA reader, we've posted the translation of the 15 Points of "The Secular Green Movement" (see 0920 GMT).

1335 GMT: Judiciary Head Denounces Big Liars. Iran’s Head of Judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has warned the "minority (reformist?) faction of the Parliament" that those those who have “claimed that the elections were rigged, have broken the law....This allegation of fraud was a big lie which became the source of extensive damage.”

All very much in line with Larijani's recent finger-waggings and threats of prosecution, as he said that the lying claims have “hurt the feeling and sentiments of the public and the pious”. This reference, however, is curious, either in translation or in Larijani's intent: the post-election crisis also arose from the “silence of the elite and their lack of foresight”.

1330 GMT: Media Twist of the Day. Press TV's website starts its story, "Former Iranian presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi says Iran's enemies are behind the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Masoud Ali-Mohammadi."

And you're thinking, maybe Iran's state media has been infiltrated or corrupted and switched to the Dark Side of the opposition.

But wait....Here's the last paragraph: "Iran's Foreign Ministry has announced that it has found traces of US and Israeli involvement in the assassination of the Iranian nuclear physics scientist."

You see? One touch-up of the "facts", and Mir Hossein Mousavi believes the US and Israel killed the Professor.

Well played, gentlemen. Very well played.

0930 GMT: The Battle Inside the Regime? Again prompted by EA readers and alongside this morning's analysis, I wonder if this ripple has any significance:

Fars News, considering President Ahmadinejad, linked to a blog "Ahestan" which was not too flattering about close Ahmadinejad ally and aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. Iran Khabar, which noted the item, claims that, with state media now assisting, "criticism of Ahmadinejad has become cheap".

0925 GMT: Setting Up the Greens? A thought, spurred by EA readers, that has been niggling me.

We noted yesterday the statement of member of Parliament Asadollah Badamchian that the opposition was behind the "terrorism" which killed Professor Massoud Ali-Mohammadi. Well, the satirist Ebrahim Nabavi has noted Badamchian's assertion, before the death of Ali-Mohammadi, "Soon explosions and assassinations will start."

So, that thought: did Badamchian know of a scheme to carry out violent acts and blame them on the Greens?

0920 GMT: How Big Will This Ripple Be? As some EA readers noted yesterday, the "Secular Green Movement" has emerged with a statement, signed by Iranians living in North America and Europe, of views and 15 demands for reform, rights, and justice. We are watching carefully for reactions to see if move parallels or intersects with the 10 Demands of 5 Iranian intellectuals living abroad, issued on 3 January, and the 5-point post-Ashura statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi.

0905 GMT: We've posted an analysis from InsideIran.org of the tensions inside the Iranian establishment, "The 'Opposition Within' and the Regime".

0750 GMT: While Friday was a relatively quiet day after the open drama and tensions earlier this week, there were more than enough developments to point to the ripples of continuing conflict and manoeuvre.

Some of the ripples were far away from the central wave. For example, some media were looking forward to today's "5+1" (US, UK, Russia, China, France, Germany) meeting on Iran's nuclear programme. Even if that gathering had significance for the internal situation in Iran, it is unlikely to produce any results: China has declined to send a high-level official, blocking any move towards further sanctions on Tehran.

Some of the ripples bring a smile, such as the latest episode in the cyber-war between the regime and the opposition. Iran's police chief Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam may have most seriously warned the Green movement(s) not to use e-mail and text messages to plan any protests, but "Iranian Green Army" got last night's last laugh with the attack on the website of Iran's Hezbollah (Party of God). The unsubtle message, "The End is F***ing Near", and the new domain name, www.getasexpartner.com, are still up this morning.

There are the day-in, day-out ripples from the Government. The head of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Mohammad-Ali Jafari declared, in a speech in western Iran, "The enemies of the Islamic Revolution have come to the conclusion that they can not achieve their mischievous goals; therefore they do not abandon threats against the Islamic Republic." Israel, "filled with fear and scared of going into war with Iran," got a special shout-out as the force behind economic sanctions.

The biggest ripples on Friday, however, came with yet more challenges to and within the regime. The appearance of dissent, via Dr Javad Etaat, on Iranian state media has brought heated discussion inside and outside Iran, and chatter continues this morning over the criticisms of a former top commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Sardar Safavi.

Safavi, urging respect for senior clerics and avoidance of any extreme actions, has some words for "power seekers" who ran for President but then acted outside the law when their defeat was announced. Then, however, he takes aim at current leaders for their attacks on the "old guard" --- allies of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini --- as "hypocrities". He also pointed to the Government's mismanagement of post-election politics and the economy, warning that this is bringing “unpleasant” deeds by frustrated Iranian youth.

As EA readers noted yesterday, Safavi, in his call for unity, condemned attacks against senior clerics such as Ayatollahs Dastgheib and Sane'i etc.) and the labelling of protesters as “mohareb” (enemies of God). He emphasized that Revolutionary Guard and Basiji should serve the people rather than suppressing them.

UPDATED Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat's Opposition On State Media (14 January --- Parts 1 and 2)

We have now posted Part 3 of the video, with translation:

There has been a massive buzz about the appearance by Dr Javad Etaat, a professor of political science at Shahid Behesti University, on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting. Possibly in response to criticism that it has been one-sided in post-election coverage, IRIB has headlined a series of debates. It may not have bargained, however, for the intensity of Etaat's comments, made in his discussion with "conservative" MP Ali Reza Zakani.

Iran Video & Translation: Dr Etaat’s Opposition On State Media (14 January — Part 3)

Here are Parts 1 and 2 of the exchange, with extracts translated by the good people at the new website The Flying Carpet Institute.Further parts of the video are available via the same YouTube link, and a translation of Part 2 is promised tomorrow by our Flying Carpet friends.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06UU4IFDKmA[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eE9bs25kLQ[/youtube]

PART 1

*I was once invited to hold a speech about the attempt to topple Iran political system with a Velvet Revolution. But we all know that Velvet Revolutions always occur in dictatorships. So basically when you say that some forces are planning to make a Velvet Revolution, you have indirectly admitted that your system is not democratic.



When elections, discussions and competition take place in a free atmosphere, why should people want to make a revolution? People make revolutions maybe only every hundred years and only then when they are totally fed up with the situation. It doesn’t matter whether the revolution is a violent, velvet, coloured, white, black, red yellow. So when the Islamic Republic talks about Velvet Revolution, there is an unintended confession that Iran is not a free country and people can’t achieve their goals through the institutions the system offers. So the result is that people want to make a revolution.

*As an expert of political issues I’m disappointed by IRIB’s current policies.

*Regarding the tearing of Imam Khomeini’s portrait: Someone tore his portrait…it’s not even clear who it was. But IRIB broadcast this scene over and over again. We all know that tearing Khomeini’s portrait is an insult to him, but what about attacking his former residense (Beyte Emam) during Tasua (26 December), when former president (Mohammad) Khatami was holding a speech? Isn’t that illegal? Isn’t that an insult to the Imam?

There are not many honourable men like Khatami who love Islam, the revolution and the constitution, like the way he does. But still he was attacked by armed thugs. Why did these people do that? Why is it forbidden to express a different view? Why wasn’t he allowed to interprete the historic Ashura event the way he wanted?

It’s a fact that Khatami is critical to many aspects of the regime, but it’s an insult to this revolution that, 30 years after this system was established, people dare to attack other people with batons and knives. Unfortunately IRIB encourages this kind of behaviour.

*Regarding Ashura: Everyone loves Imam Hossein (3rd Imam of Shi'a Islam), no matter if this person is a Jew, Christian, Sunni, or Shiite. So if someone committed a misconduct during Ashura, be sure that people will punish him. If singing and clapping is a misconduct during Ashura, then beating and killing people is a much more worse act. Now look how...we are ruling!

*IRIB unfortunately had a negative role in all these [developments]. How do you want the people to express their dissatisfaction with current events if you don’t offer them a fair platform? IRIB must think about that criticism. You even admitted that certain people refused to take part in your past shows, because they don’t trust the IRIB. I was one of those people but I wanted to use the rare opportunity to express my dissatisfaction.

Part 2

*You say that we prepared the ground for riots. I believe that it’s not right to generalize. The number of opponents of the government is far higher than the number of those you see on the streets protesting. You have to consider that you haven’t even permitted one of those past street rallies. On 25th Khordad (15 June), for example, people came to the streets even though there was no official call from the opposition to demonstrate. But still two to three million Iranians took the streets. If you had permitted the marches, a guaranteed right according to the Constitution of the Islamic Republic, you can be sure that the number of the protesters would be much, much higher than what you have witnessed on that day.

*You always mention law but you don’t understand that your very own acts are against the law. Our Constitution (Article 27) says, “Public gatherings and marches may be freely held, provided arms are not carried and that they are not detrimental to the fundamental principles of Islam.” We often asked you to allow us to hold rallies. By the way, we also asked for a permission to publicly protest against the tearing of the Imam’s portrait.

The Green movement condemns any kind of violence, and if a minority uses violence, then it’s wrong to say all the protesters are violent rioters. One of the representatives of the government once said that people who want to protest on the streets must also provide security by themselves. But I ask you: Why do we pay the police? They are paid to protect the people and offer general security in the society!

*In the past 5 years that your government ruled the country, you did things that created an atmosphere of dissatisfaction.

*Article 6 and Article 56 of the Constitution guarantee people’s sovereignty.

*I quote Article 177: The contents of the Articles of the Constitution related to the Islamic character of the political system; the basis of all the rules and regulations according to Islamic criteria; the religious footing; the objectives of the Islamic Republic of Iran; the democratic character of the government[…]are unalterable.

*I quote Article 56: Absolute sovereignty over the world and man belongs to God, and it is He who has made man master of his own social destiny. No one can deprive man of this divine right, nor subordinate it to the vested interests of a particular individual or group. The people are to exercise this divine right in the manner specified in the following articles.*

*If you had acknowledged people’s sovereignty as it is described in the Constitution in the first place, no one would criticize you today. You rejected about 2400 potential candidates for the last parliamentary elections to create your own majority, and now you wonder why people are unhappy with the system. I don’t want to talk about the elections that were held in our country in the past. The question is why the Guardian Council misinterprets the constitution.*

*I’ll quote Article 44 of the constitution: “The economy of the Islamic Republic of Iran is to consist of three sectors: state, cooperative, and private, and is to be based on systematic and sound planning. The state sector is to include all large-scale and mother industries, foreign trade, major minerals, banking, insurance, power generation, dams and large-scale irrigation networks, radio and television, post, telegraph and telephone services, aviation, shipping, roads, railroads, and the like; all these will be publicly owned and administered by the State.”

But your government privatized almost all of those sectors! Then, when it comes to radio and television, you say that this sector must be controlled by the state! Why is that the case? Why does the Guardian Council say that the privatisation of the IRIB is forbidden? You see, you truly debase the people by your acts. And still you wonder why people are unhappy and want to protest.

*You close down newspapers and deny people’s right to criticize.

*Not only that….Your government is also incompetent when it comes to economic matters….The Government's wrong policies created a stunningly high inflation. In the eight years of Khatami’s government, the price for meat was about 3000 – 3700 Tomans. Are you aware that now the price for meat is 18,000 Tomans?…The same with real estate….

*Accept that people are opposing you because you failed in almost every field.

*I will now tell a story about the rule of Imam Ali to show you the gap between the quality of your rule and Ali’s: Once the “Khavaresh” who opposed Ali’s rule disrupted one of Ali’s sermons and insulted him in the mosque. But Ali said: "You are allowed to stay in the mosque and state your dissatisfaction, and as long you don’t use your sword we won’t punish you.”*

* But you closed down the mosque [in Shiraz] of Ayatollah Dastgheib, even though he is a Marja (senior cleric). You see the gap between your rule and Imam Ali’s!

Iran: The 15 Points of "The Secular Green Movement" (14 January)

The 15 points, published Thursday by "The Secular Green Movement" and now signed by more than 150 Iranians working and living abroad. Many thanks to an EA reader for translation:

1. Iranians are suffering from different types of discrimination which have been a historical burden, especially Shi'a as official religion since the 1906 law of the Constitutional Revolution.

2. The solution is to build a new society without any discriminations.

Latest Iran News (16 January): Ripples

3. Iranians, as the real proprietors of this country, should strictly abide to the International Convention of Human Rights.

4. National unity and integrity can only be guaranteed by overturning all types of discriminations.

5. Iranian identity, besides its legal connotations, arises from our "national and historical" identity. Conservation of all kinds of cultural heritage, of all Iranians and all epochs, is necessary to strengthen this identity. At the same time critique of all periods is necessary to preserve it.

6. Iran will only belong to all Iranians when every office is open to anyone, regardless of religion, ideology, language, ethnicity, or gender.

7. The most important solution to ensure "acceptance of differences in a realm without discriminations" is the principle of qualification.

8. All natural resources belong to all Iranians. Private ownership must be respected, but should not be misused for social superiority. National policies should be made to foster social equality.

9. Dismissing discrimination from a multiple society requires a non-religious and non-ideological government, This should meet the demands of "all Iranians", represented by a legislatory parliament, whose members are elected without any interference.

10. No group is allowed to impose its values, festivities, or mournings upon others.

11. There should be acceptance of the inherent needs of different groups of society, prohibiting the imposition of a unified religion, rules, language, etc.

12. Every official is responsible for the duties of his office.

13. Political parties are essential, but should not impose their ideology or religion on government and social life. Any party can present its own programme, but it has to govern for "all Iranians", ruling in a democratic and secular framework. No ruler or party can govern without restriction; all officials serve the people and are not above them.

14. In an Iran without discrimination, which we demand, people must always have the right to criticize, protest, gather peacefully, and go on legal strikes. In parallel, freedom of press and media must be guaranteed by government. Complaints against published news must be judged by independent courts; government has no right to interfere. Freedom of speech requires that only national unity, freedom of the people, and installation of democratic organisations are "holy", and even these can be criticized.

15. Armed forces and security forces are not allowed to participate in political and economic affairs, except as private citizens and without state funding. They should abide to their legal duties, obeying the government and the people.