Iran Analysis: Why the 2009 Election is Not Legitimate (Ansari)

More than a year later, the fight goes on over the validity of the 2009 Presidential election. In the face of the questions not only about the vote but also the intimidation, state propaganda, and detentions that surrounded it, defenders of the Government re-present a series of flawed polls and A report --- based on the Guardian Council's attempt to vindicate the process --- to put Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's "victory" beyond doubt.



I won't repeat my dissection of those defenders here, since the campaign for civil rights and the issue of the Government's legitimacy are now far beyond the elections. I'll just note that I picked up new information this week that the decision to manipulate the electoral results had been established 72 hours before the ballot.

Ali Ansari, writing for Chatham House's World Review, offers this overview, taking apart seven myths propping up the platform of a rightly-elected President:

Iran's 10th Presidential election, on 12 June last year, was the most controversial and contested poll in the 30 years of the Islamic Republic. Far from anointing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with a landslide election victory for a second term, the credibility of the result was immediately in question, unleashing the most extraordinary public anger against the governing elite.

The street protests subsided, but there is little sign of the widespread anger the result generated dissipating. The situation remains tense and the governing elite is no less anxious about the future. Unlike other disputeswhich have periodically shaken the Islamic Republic, this one affects and divides the political elite like no other. The government remains determined to promote its account of a free and fair election, convinced that it has defeated a "velvet revolution". This is the reason given for the brutal crackdown, which continues to this day.

A year on, it is worth revisiting some of the urban myths which have come to underpin this standoff:

Those who allege fraud must prove their case; the government is innocent until proven guilty

Not so; in any political system which claims democratic procedures and values, it is the governing elite and holders of power who must answer to the people, not the other way round. Accountability must be transparent and not a matter of faith. Accountability is the basis of any democratic settlement, without it the process of ‘voting’ is mere procedural window dressing.

In Iran, with its fragile democracy under considerable attack, the situation is more acute.
As a consequence of the election victories of President Mohammad Khatami in 1997 and 2001,a plan was implemented to organise and manipulate the electoral system to ensure the desired result. As a result, the parliamentary and presidential elections from 2004 to 2008 saw a gradual collapse in turnout, with optimistic estimates for Tehran in 2008 barely reaching thirty percent. For particular reasons, only the 2006 municipal election was an exception.

Last year, all the major institutions of government, including those with oversight of the
election were in the hands of the government faction. At least three members of the Guardian Council, the Chief of the General Staff, and the Supreme Leader, all voiced support for Ahmadinejad. In such a climate the burden of proof --- and accountability --- lies with the government, not the people.

Read rest of article....

Iran Request: Nonsense about "Twitter Revolution". Please Stop.

UPDATE 1825 GMT: Jared Keller has modified his final paragraph so it now reads, "The Green Revolution in Iran was muzzled, sadly, although the movement continues to put pressure on the Iranian regime a year after its initial protests. The Twitter Revolution, however, is far from over." He has also engaged in a productive dialogue over the original piece, noting his main intention was to establish the role of Twitter in events, correcting misconceptions, and adding, "I regret using 'totally stifled' as a rhetorical flourish [about the Green Movement]; I don't intend to make the same mistake in the future.

It's been wearying to read the recent mis-interpretation of social media and its place in the post-election conflict in Iran.

There is, however, a step beyond today, as Jared Keller of The Atlantic tries to set the record straight --- for which he should be thanked --- only to walk face-first into an even worse two-dimensional error. My response:

I am grateful that Jared Keller corrects the superficial notion --- sometimes put out in misunderstanding, sometimes to grab a cheap headline --- that Twitter is the movement for change in Iran.

Twitter is a tool --- a very powerful tool --- to keep information moving in and out of Iran even at the height of represssion by the regime.

It's ironic, then, that Mr Keller seems not to have used Twitter to lead him to the information of what is happening day-by-day in Iran, more than a year after the 2009 election. Had he done so, he would not have made the assertion --- as superficial as the notion of the "Twitter Revolution" and as ill-informed --- that "the Green Revolution in Iran was muzzled, sadly, its political organs now defunct and its development totally stifled".

The movement for civil rights is still much alive, with thousands defying arrest and intimidation to show up on streets in cities across Iran last Saturday and with political pressure building against the Government on a daily basis, both from the opposition and from "battles within the establishment".

The Latest from Iran (18 June): Hardliners Criticise Ahmadinejad

1510 GMT: Twitter and Civil Rights. We have posted a response to the latest attempt to set straight the relationship between social media and the post-election political situation in Iran.

1430 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Ebrahim Rashidi, who disappeared on Monday, has reportedly called his family from Ardebil's intelligence detention centre.

NEW Iran Request: Nonsense about “Twitter Revolution”. Please Stop.
NEW Iran Analysis: How Europe Can Help (Mamedov)
NEW Iran Document: The Tajzadeh Criticism and The Reformist Way Forward (Sahimi)
Iran Snapshot: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Master of Irony
Iran Overview: Striking Poses from Sanctions to Cyber-War to “Terrorism”
Latest from Iran (17 June): Clearing Away the Smoke

Journalist Hassan Etemadi has been given a two-year sentence, and journalist Shahin Zeynali has been handed a term of two years and 91 days.

The former mayor of Ghasr-e Shirin, Ghodrat Mohammadi, has been detained and transferred to a centre in Kermanshah. No reason for his arrest has been given.

1330 GMT: Through the Looking Glass on the Hijab. Reviewing today's Tehran Friday Prayer by Ayatollah Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, I think we are now caught up in a contortion of politics. Iran has suddenly become a place where defenders of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad praise him for "a relatively liberal government approach" and turn their fire upon the "hardliners", rather than the opposition.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tZ2a0_3sNw&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

For the headline from Jannati's speech today, in contrast to his previous appearances, is not the threat of heavy punishment upon the opposition but his criticism of Ahmadinejad for raising the "cumbersome" issue of the "morality police" and their efforts to enforce "good behaviour" such as the wearing of the hijab.

Linking those who acted or dressed inappropriately to "drug traffickers" and "terrorists", Jannati said that women who defied the rules on proper clothing were "worse than poison". No one (he means you, Mahmoud) had "the right to tie the hands" of those enforcing the law.

1005 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Hijab Problem. It seems the President has got himself in a political tangle over his complaint about "morality police" cracking down on supposed social transgressions, including "bad hijab".

The Governor of Tehran, Morteza Tamaddon, has insisted that Ahmadinejad's directives are the basis for his officials' actions.

High-profile member of Parlaiment Ali Motahari has declared that the President has been adversely influenced by his chief aide, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

Ayatollah Alamalhoda, Mashhad's Friday Prayer leader, has asserted, "Unfortunately Ahmadinejad does not give the right attention to implementing religious rules."

Member of Parliament Mohammad Taghi Rahbar says he is ready to discuss the issue with Ahamadinejad on television.

0950 GMT: Today's Khabar Kick on the Government's Shins. Khabar Online, linked to Ali Larijani, has suggested that Vice President Mohammad Reza Mirtajoddini might have to resign because he wants to complete a Ph.D. dissertation.

The website, as reported by Peyke Iran, also points to 11 "suspicious" comments by the President in the last 76 days.

0945 GMT: Take Your Resolution and Stick It. Iran's National Security Council has issued a strongly-worded denunciation of the UN Security Council sanctions resolution on Tehran's nuclear programme:

Contrary to all expectations, the resolution has focused on Iran's nuclear program, without so much as a word about the Israeli regime's criminal activities and its attack on the Freedom Flotilla convoy carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip only 10 days ago.

Also, the resolution brazenly ignores the 11 proposals put forward by Iran during Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, which have been welcomed by world countries.

The council takes issue with the adoption of the resolution, particularly since it came despite constructive cooperation and the release of a new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency confirming the non-diversion of Iran's nuclear material for the 22nd consecutive time....

"This clearly shows that Washington's commitment to Israeli security will never allow UN Security Council to fulfill its obligations with regards to securing the safety and the rights of different nations....

The Islamic Republic of Iran will respond fittingly to any attempt to violate the legal and legitimate rights of the Iranian nation," the statement added.

0845 GMT: We have posted an analysis by Eldar Mamedov, "Iran: How Europe Can Help".

0840 GMT: Economy Watch. Ayatollah Mousavi Ardebili has complained that people are still not informed about the Government's subsidy reduction plan.

0805 GMT: A Boast (and an Admission?). Tehran police chief Esmail Ahmadi Moghaddam, trying to wash away criticism of last year's attack on Tehran University's dormitories, has said, "We were prepared for the elections one week in advance." The dorm incidents were predictable because Communists and neo-Marxists following Mehdi Karroubi had come onto the streets.

Not sure if Ahmadi-Moghaddam realises this, but his statement gives indirect support to allegations of a manipulated election --- the security forces were preparing for violence because they knew in advance that there might be anger over an "adjusted" vote. (More on this on Saturday....)

Meanwhile, member of Parliament Elyas Naderan has kept up his pressure on the Government, saying that the Majlis never completed a full report --- despite its promises --- on the dormitory attacks: "Only parts of it exist and are in our minds."

0800 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. Some more pressure on the regime: Ayatollah Abdolnabi Namazi, the Friday Prayer leader of Kashan, has said, "If attacks on marja in Qom become normal, the future is not predictable."  Hojatolelsam Mehdi Tabatabai asserts, "God will not forgive those who insulted the 14 Khordad [4 June] ceremony."

0645 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics --- An Apology? Hmm, wondering if this might be an important signal....

In a wide-ranging interview on Parleman News, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani makes the statement that "whoever does not respect the marja (senior clerics)... shows his worthlessness". Larijani asserts that the marja "are the pillars of nezam", the Iranian system, and "the Supreme Leader up to the chiefs of Iran's forces see them as such".

An EA correspondent gets to the point with the question, "Is this an indirect apology from Ayatollah Khamenei?"

0640 GMT: The Economic Squeeze. Reuters publishes a summary of foreign companies who have pulled back from operations inside Iran and those who continue to do business.

0550 GMT: A Victory in Britain. It is reported that actress and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender rights activist Kiana Firouz has been granted "leave to remain"' in the UK, removing the threat of deportation to Iran.

Firouz had been refused asylum on two previous occasions, prompting a campaign to prevent her return to Tehran.

0535 GMT: The Attack on the Clerics. It is reported that the website of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has been filtered.

Kalemeh publishes a letter from Ahmad Montazeri, the son of the Grand Ayatollah, to senior clerics in Qom. Montazeri describes Sunday's attack on the Grand Ayatollah's home and offices and asks for a denunciation of the assault.

0515 GMT: Today's white noise starts out of Washington rather than Tehran, as the Obama Administration --- trying to hold back the tide of Congressional action on Iran --- plays up rhetorically to the legislators.

Speaking at a hearing on Thursday, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates gave the rationale for the adjusted approach of the White House to US missile defence:

One of the elements of the intelligence that contributed to the decision on the phased adaptive array (approach) was the realization that if Iran were actually to launch a missile attack on Europe, it wouldn't be just one or two missiles, or a handful.

"It would more likely be a salvo kind of attack, where you would be dealing potentially with scores or even hundreds of missiles.

An editorial aside:I wonder if and when the Administration will ever realise that this appeasement --- not of Iran but of Congress --- will never free up its approach towards Tehran but will limit and even undermine any hope of crafting a thoughtful policy towards the Iranian situation.

Meanwhile, getting back to significant developments, we catch up with this week's potentially important analysis by reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh. A Deputy Interior Minister in the Khatami Government and post-election detainee, Tajzadeh has published a lengthy consideration of today's Iran through a review of the past, apologising for the reformists' role in the detention and execution of political prisoners in the 1980s.

We've posted extracts from the Tajzadeh analysis, accompanied by interpretation for Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau.

Iran Analysis: How Europe Can Help (Mamedov)

Eldar Mamedov, an international-relations analyst based in Brussels, writes for European Voice:

If the past is any guide, the UN Security Council's decision to impose new sanctions on Iran is unlikely to radically alter Iran's behaviour and its pursuit of its nuclear programme. Instead, the EU and US should shift their Iran policy toward increasing the prospects for political change in the country.

The emergence of the Green Movement a year ago as a broad-based opposition to what was perceived as an electoral coup in favour of the hard-line president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, provides an opportunity for such a change.

The Latest from Iran (18 June): Threats & Apologies

The movement, informally led by former presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, has proved itself to be resilient in the face of the ferocious repression by the regime during the last year. For example, to the shock of the establishment, Mousavi strongly and publicly condemned the execution in May of five Kurdish dissidents. This shows that he is reaching out to the broadest possible segments of the Iranian society, including the aggrieved ethnic minorities and populations outside the big cities of Teheran, Isfahan and Tabriz.

A few weeks ago, Mousavi blasted Ahmadinejad's erratic economic policies. These policies have led to an unemployment rate of 50% among the educated youth and inflation of over 20%. Both Mousavi and Karroubi called for demonstrations to mark the anniversary of the presidential elections on 12 June.

Even if the regime finally succeeds in crushing the Green Movement, the opposition in Iran will not disappear. Iran's young, well-educated and well-connected society has seen its desire for political and social freedoms and economic prosperity stifled for far too long. The government's fresh offensive to re-impose ultra-conservative social mores, including the restrictive dress code for women, and a massive purge from the universities of professors deemed too "liberal" or "secular", are further alienating the youth. There are deepening cracks within the system itself, with a growing number of conservatives realising that it is untenable in its current shape. Remarkably, the opposition to the regime also has religious legitimisation, since one of its fiercest critics was the late and very popular Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri.

All this makes the option of supporting the Iranian opposition not only morally right, but also politically feasible. The EU can do it in several ways.

First and foremost, it should put human rights at the core of its strategy towards Iran. Individuals and organisations implicated in human rights violations should be subjected to the EU travel ban and freezing of assets. Non-governmental organisations such as Iran Human Rights Documentation Centre have compiled a list of officials directly involved in murders, torture and rape of the protesters. Contrary to widespread belief, the regime does care about such revelations, since some of the accused, particularly members of the Revolutionary Guard, have business interests in Europe and travel to Europe for, for instance, medical treatment. The revelations of the atrocities also fly in the face of the Islamic Republic‘s attempts to promote itself internationally as a unique example of a ‘modern religious democracy'. Sanctions against the perpetrators would send a clear message that there is a cost attached to the repression. It may save lives.

The EU should increase its efforts to protect Iranian dissidents, by, for instance, granting asylum in Europe. Thousands of them are currently waiting in Turkey for their applications to the EU countries to be processed. Meanwhile, they are being harassed and intimidated by Iranian agents. The EU must put pressure on Turkey to rein in the Iranian agents and more EU countries should follow the example of Germany, which already offered asylum to some of the dissidents. This will help the Green movement find a foothold abroad and establish a connection between its leadership and the EU governments.

Second, the EU must do its utmost to facilitate the opposition's access to the internet and other electronic communications in the face of government interference. It should protest loudly any jamming of broadcasts from Europe, such as Iran's attempts to block the BBC's Persian TV, and it should find ways to retaliate. The export of surveillance technology by European companies to Iran, whose government could use it to violate freedom of expression, should be stopped.

Third, the EU can help the disparate groups that have coalesced into the Green movement to resolve their ideological differences and decide what comes next. The religious democrats, including Moussavi and Karroubi, want to work within the system and reform existing laws. By contrast, liberals and social democrats insist that the current constitution and political structure are unreformable and should be replaced by a secular republic. The EU can provide a platform for debate among these groups to work out a common strategy and evolve into an alternative political force capable of ruling Iran. Foundations under European political parties can be instrumental in this effort.

While the nuclear issue will remain on the agenda for the foreseeable future, the EU should see the big picture. For the first time in three decades there is an opportunity for popular-led political change in Iran. It will take time, but it is an opportunity not to be missed.

Turkey Inside Line: Ankara's Attack in Iraq; Relations with Israel

Cross Border Operation: The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) announced on Wednesday that three commando divisions, supported with one special forces battalio,n followed PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) guerillas/terrorists up to 3 kilometres across the Iraqi border. It was stated that four PKK followers were killed.

This was the first operation since February 2008, when 240 guerillas/terrorists and 27 Turkish soldiers were killed.

Meanwhile, ten PKK members who returned to Turkey in October as part of the government’s initiative to resolve the Kurdish issue were arrested Thursday. Charges against the group were brought in two separate indictments: the festivities that welcomed them back to Turkey led to the allegation “being a member of a terrorist organization” and the statements they subsequently gave constituted “making propaganda for a terrorist organization”.

Turkish-Israeli Relations: Israeli Government officials persuaded activists, led by former member of Parliament Alex Goldfarb and Modi’in Meretz activist Pinhas Har-Zahav to cancel the voyage to northern Cyprus, in a "reverse flotilla" to protest those trying to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza.

Israeli officials were reportedly concerned that the manoeuvre ould remind international media of the Gaza flotilla when most attention had shifted to issues like the British Petroleum spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the World Cup.

In the United States, two lawmakers warned Turkey over its tension with Israel and its close relations with Iran. "There will be a cost if Turkey stays on its present heading of growing closer to Iran and more antagonistic to the state of Israel," Representative Mike Pence, the third-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives, said. Pence added that he was ready to reevaluate his past reluctance to support a congressional resolution denouncing World War I-era killings of Armenians by Ottoman forces as "genocide".

Democratic Representative Eliot Engel called Turkey's actions "disgraceful", adding that although Ankara was a member of NATO, it had stopped looking westward.

After Ankara's called its under-18 football team back from Israel, the European Volleyball Confederation announced on Thursday that four matches between Israeli and Turkish teams in women league have been canceled.