The Latest from Iran (11 June): Waiting, Watching, and Wondering

2140 GMT: Tonight's Allahu Akbars (God is Great):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jvu1nHTROVw[/youtube]

NEW Latest Iran Video: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference
NEW Iran Analysis: The Green Movement and The Lesson of 51 Pegasi B (Shahryar)
NEW Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement
NEW Iran Feature: Why the Green Movement is Important (Dissected News)
Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 22 Khordaad Protest (10 June)
Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”
Iran Document: Karroubi “In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran” (9 June)
The Latest from Iran (10 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Withdraw Request to March

2130 GMT: Karroubi Challenges Supreme Leader? Agence France Presse lifts one provocative sentence from the video of Mehdi Karroubi's joint press conference with Mir Hossein Mousavi, with Karroubi singling out Ayatollah Khamenei (without naming him) in the 2009 Presidential election: "There will be no results if he doesn't approve. Is this a republic?"

2120 GMT: Football, Rights, and Protest. A convergence today as activists used the opening of football's World Cup to put out a message of support for human rights and political prisoners such as human rights lawyer Mohammad Oliyaifard and Behrouz Tehrani.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6daHJnqQaI[/youtube]

2115 GMT: Rahnavard "We are Going Forward". Zahra Rahnavard, academic, activist, and wife of Mir Hossein Mousavi, has given an interview to The Guardian of London. She summarises:

This movement started with the simple question: "Where is my vote?" But because the response was violence and bullets and repression from the ruling regime, the situation entered another phase which was completely unpredictable. People's demands have changed so now there are more fundamental questions and more intensive criticism of the regime. The Islamic republic has deviated from its path and goals.

We are still pursuing our ideals of 30 years ago. But the current government is the result of an electoral coup d'etat. The Green movement has not been defeated at all. It is going forward.

Rahnavard adds, "[The] movement is not looking for the support of foreign governments at all and wants to stands on its own."

2110 GMT: 22 Khordaad --- 83 Cities and Counting. That's the number of locations around the world for rallies on 12 June, the anniversary of the election. Full details and a map finder are available at 12June.org.

2100 GMT: The Mousavi-Karroubi Press Conference Emerges. Back from a break to find, thanks to an EA reader, the link to the video of the gathering with opposition websites held by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi at the start of this week. It is in Persian, of course, but given its potential importance, we have posted it in a separate entry.

1530 GMT: Tehran Friday Prayers Summary. "Substitute Friday Prayers leader" Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami (Substitute?! Was the first-choice religious striker injured? Or has former President Hashemi Rafsanjani begged off sick again?) lines up for his best shot at goal.

Unfortunately, it's a pretty tame effort: "The world should think of an independent organization and security council which would not be dominated by the imperial powers". The UN sanctions resolution on Iran's nuclear programme stinks. The US, which faces internal and external problems, will find this adds to "the crisis of disgrace".

Khatami, trying to match the record of Iran's best-known international (R Khomeini),  then asked the audience if they happened to notice that the US is a Great Satan.

The cleric did show a nice couple of nice touches with this query, made against the global run of play (see 1415 GMT): “Now judge for yourself: Is powerful Iran, which is present everywhere on earth, isolated, or it is you, who are alone, and your few puppet states?”

Then, however, it was back to another predictable passage of play: "savage attack" of the Zionist regime on the Freedom Flotilla, US kidnaps Iranian scientist Shahram Amiri by the US and Saudi Arabia, “I hope a freedom caravan with an aim of breaking the siege of Gaza will start moving and Iran will abide by its historical duty in the way.”

So a pretty tepid 0-0 draw. Then again, this was just the curtain-raiser for a more important game tomorrow.

1415 GMT: International Smackdown for Iran? If this story plays out as predicted here by Agence France Presse, this is a signficant blow, delivered by Moscow and Beijing amongst others, to the Iranian Government:

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), where Russia and China call the shots, gathered Friday to consider changes to its membership guidelines which could lead to further expansion for the bloc.

At its annual gathering in the Uzbek capital Tashkent, leaders including Russia's Dmitry Medvedev and China's Hu Jintao were expected to adopt new guidelines seen as potentially opening the door to SCO observer nations India and Pakistan.....

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the guidelines to be approved Friday would not allow countries under UN sanctions to obtain membership, a major blow to Iran who sorely needs international support.

Iran is currently an "observer" nation in the SCO.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he had cancelled his appearance at the meeting, ostensibly his change of mind was a protest against Russian and Chinese support for UN sanctions. However, The Russian newspaper Kommersant, citing diplomatic sources, is claiming that Ahmadinejad had wanted an invitation to the event, but Russia, China, and Kazakhstan had "politely denied" it.

1330 GMT: Polite Intimidation. Rah-e-Sabz claims that Iranians are receiving the following text message from the Ministry of Intelligence: "Dear citizens, You have been deceived and foreign media to do their work. If you repeat this action, you will be punished under Islamic law."

1310 GMT: One Year On. CNN has a snapshot of the opposition, based on interviews with four Iranians, two inside the country and two now abroad. This comment from "Azadeh", a bank teller in Iran, stands out:

"There is fear. I can't say I'm not scared, but you still have to go out -- because that's what the government wants, for you to be afraid and not continue. But we have to."

1305 GMT: We welcome back Josh Shahryar as an EA correspondent with his analysis on the significance of the Green Movement.

1300 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Human rights activist and journalist Narges Mohammad has been arrested by security forces during a late-night raid on her home.

Mohammad is the Vice President of the Defenders of Human Rights Center and President of the executive committee of the National Peace Council.

0915 GMT: Spreading the Word. A new website, Access Now, has been launched, featuring a "Global Proxy Cloud" to help computer users get to the information they want.

0910 GMT: Looking Back. Tehran Bureau features the recollection of Farhod Family of a year ago, just before and after the Presidential election: "Tehran had done a complete 180 in less than 24 hours. A cheerful country had turned violent in disgust."

0905 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Islamic scholar Ahmad Ghabel has been released on bail of more than $500,000, almost six months after his arrest.

Ghabel, a student of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, was arrested on 20 December while travelling to Qom for Montazeri's funeral.

0900 GMT: 4 June Fall-Out. Another cleric denounces the uproar at last week's ceremony for Ayatollah Khomeini and comments on the heckling of the Ayatollah's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini: Hojatoleslam Hossein Ebrahimi said the "events have caused sorrow for all".

0855 GMT: Larijani's Latest Move. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, manoeuvring for position against President Ahmadinejad as well as the "opposition", has pronounced, The Supreme Leader is there to show the right way. Those who don't understand must not be excluded."

An EA correspondent comments, "Those who don't understand? I still wonder whom Larijani means: clerics, Mousavi and Karroubi, Ahmadinejad...or all of them?"

0840 GMT: PsyWars. A sign of strength, a sign of worry, or just a big bluff?

General Hassan Firouzabadi, the head of Iran's armed forces, has announced that a Psychological Operations Command will be established for 12 June. At the same time, he announced that victory had already been achieved over the opposition: “The unity of the conspirators has been disrupted thanks to the events of the 4th and 5th June, and public alertness. [Mir Hossein] Mousavi has been trapped in cyberspace created by the US, Britain, the Zionist regime and counter-revolutionaries, is moving towards destruction. The reformist sheikh [a reference to Mehdi Karoubi] too has been isolated in the dreams of the green movement.”

The Command, it appears, is neceesary because, in Firouzabadi's words, “The Freedom Movement is still the leader of the US position and is the instigator of the conspiracy inside the country as it tries to perpetuate the situation while revolutionary students and politicians are aware of their ways. Moderate reformers are gradually moving towards the regime and the Imam’s line and their new policy is to work within the regime.”

0740 GMT: Crystal Balls. Lots of "One Year On" pieces today, many of them making sweeping and often weakly-supported claims --- The Opposition is Strong, The Opposition is Dead, the Regime is Weak, the Regime is Powerful.

The most curious article comes from The Washington Post, which manages to be both horribly deceptive and insightful in the space of a single article. The headline writers --- as they have done before --- distort Thomas Erdbrink's reporting, "A Year after Its Rise, Iranian Protest Movement Stymied and in Disarray".

In the final paragraphs, however, Erdbrink --- who continues to operate out of Tehran despite regime pressure --- slides in this important revelation:

"Because everybody is in charge, the movement can continue," said Ali Shakorirad, a former member of parliament and leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, which was recently declared illegal by the judiciary.

He said the opposition is playing a waiting game, exploiting the weaknesses of the government, which he asserted is less powerful than it appears. The opposition's inactivity, he said, has caused those advocating radical change to lose interest, which he considers a positive development.

"Ahmadinejad is making increasingly more blunders, so our first objective -- getting rid of him -- is looking more probable by the day," Shakorirad said. "When that is reached, the next step is free elections."

0730 GMT: Reading Mousavi-Karroubi. An EA correspondent checks in with a comment on the statement, "I think they had no other choice. People in Tehran told me they made the right decision because of the prospect of violence."

0720 GMT: Where's Mahmoud? President Ahmadinejad has had a look at the Shanghai Expo in China. Despite reports that he has cancelled an appearance at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting because of dissatisfaction at Chinese and Russian support of this week's UN resolution on sanctions, Ahmadinejad said, "The two great nations of Iran and China, who are the owners of the most ancient civilizations of human beings, can stay together to make this dream come true."

0655 GMT: Less than 24 hours before 22 Khordaad, the anniversary of the 2009 Presidential election, we offer two analyses: Dissected News posts a useful reminder to the media, "Why the Green Movement is Important", and Scott Lucas evaluates mysteries beyond yesterday's statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Meanwhile....

Ebadi's Message of Support

Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has put out a video message for 22 Khordaad. An English version is promised soon.

Revelation or Disinformation?

The Guardian of London features a dramatic article, "Former Elite Officers Reveal Tensions in Iran Regime", based on interviews with four "former members of the Revolutionary Guard...who have fled Iran and are in hiding in Turkey and Thailand".

The article claims:

• Deep divisions within the Revolutionary Guard, the powerful military organisation at the heart of the Iranian state, which have widened since last year's repression of the so-called green opposition.

• Firsthand accounts of the measures taken to crush the popular protests that erupted in the wake of last June's presidential elections. The men interviewed describe the widespread use of rape and torture by the regime.

• A ruling elite so unsettled by the uprising that it had a plane on standby ready to fly the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to Syria at a moment's notice.

I'm refraining from any judgement at this point --- the allegations match up with Internet chatter that goes back to last autumn. I have no doubt, based on other information, about the second claim regarding abuse of detainees, but the first and third assertions circulated without any support.

The Challenge from Iran's Youth

The US Institute for Peace has released a report, "Iran's Youth: The Protests Are Not Over": "Iran has the most politically active youth among the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of their society, Iranian youth also represent one of the greatest long-term threats to the current form of theocratic rule."

Iran Reaction: Mysteries Beyond the Mousavi-Karroubi Statement

Even now, 18 hours after the news emerged, there is still a sense of confusion over the statement by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi that they were withdrawing their request for a permit to march on 12 June, the anniversary of the 2009 election.

As the news circulated, some reacted with disbelief, some with anger, some with resignation, and some with the assurance that this was the best course of action or even part of a wider scheme. Above all, however, there was this question: so what happens tomorrow,  on 22 Khordaad?

Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 12 June Protest (10 June)

Strangely, given that we are less than 24 hours from that occasion, my belief is that it's too early to tell, certainly to put up an analysis. I say that for two reasons.

First, there are curiosities in the chain of events. On one level, the Mousavi and Karroubi decision is straightforward: they made their approach to the Ministry of Interior, the Iranian authorities are stalling until the last minute before making a likely denial, the possibility that many people may be hurt if they turn out in the face of a heavy security presence makes a demonstration problematic.

Yet there are still gaps: given that Mousavi and Karroubi have referred for weeks to "other ways" of pressing opposition even if the permit was not granted, what is the Plan B? Is there really no suggestion beyond a general reference to  "the path of the people" before 22 Khordaad comes and goes?

Which --- perhaps as a diversion --- takes me back to an event at the start of the week. Mousavi and Karroubi, we were told, held a press conference in front of representatives of about a dozen reformist and Green media outlets. A photo of the two men was released, and further details were promised.

We looked on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. We searched for transcripts, video clips, even a summary of what was said. Nothing.

And so --- before possibly going too far off the track or too deep into what should remain unexamined for the moment --- what was discussed at that press conference?

The second and more important mystery beyond yesterday: opposition and the Green Movement are not just Mousavi and Karroubi. Indeed, in line both with their wishes and with the sentiments of many others, I do not refer to them as "leaders" of the opposition. They are important figures, but they are not the sole guardians of the challenge to the Iranian Government.

So today I watch for others: the reformist parties, the students, the women's movement, the labour movement, the human rights activists, those far-from-common people who are still making up their minds over how public or how private their concern, anger, and hope should be.

That watching, I think, should take precedence over any projection --- certainly any conclusion (and I have read many ill-informed conclusions in the last 48 hours) --- of what has or will happen in Iran. On 22 Khordaad, the day after, and far beyond.

The Latest from Iran (10 June): Mousavi-Karroubi Withdraw Request to March

1950 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran Focus reports that activist Mehdi Farahi Shandiz was detained on Wednesday.

1900 GMT: Tonight's Rooftop "Allahu Akbar" (God is Great) and "Marg Bar Dictator" (Death to the Dictator) Chants:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqqqbdY0Yso[/youtube]

NEW Iran Urgent: Mousavi-Karroubi Statement on 22 Khordaad Protest (10 June)
NEW Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi “People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information”
NEW Iran Document: Karroubi “In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran” (9 June)
Latest Iran Video: Obama Statement on Sanctions…and Rights (9 June)
Iran Analysis: What’s Most Important Today? (Hint: Not Sanctions)
Iran Analysis: 4 June “The Day the Regime Will Regret” (Verde)
The Latest from Iran (9 June): Paying Attention

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zj3IAX369J0&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

1450 GMT: We have posted the English text of the Mousavi-Karroubi statement.

Dissected News evaluates:

"One way to look at this move by Moussavi and Karroubi is that they did the only thing they could. Neither leader can risk being arrested and having no legitimate and legal means to pursue reform. As was alluded to in the official statement, if large numbers of protesters show up for a rally that has been called off, it will appear as though the Green Movement is larger than its public leadership (this is true, anyway). If few numbers show up, then the Green Movement will still be able to say that the absence of large numbers was due to the backing off of the leaders of the movement."

1355 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Agence France Presse have picked up on the Mousavi-Karroubi statement, "Iran opposition leaders call off demos for vote anniversary".

1340 GMT: It's Official: Green Movement Bigger Threat than Saddam. The head of the Revolutionary Guard, General Mohammad Ali Jafari has pronounced, "Although last year's sedition did not last more than around eight months, it was much more dangerous than the imposed war which Saddam began against us through the support of the international community."

Jafari continued, "Because of the grace of God and the prophet-like guidance of the supreme leader and people's vigilance, we put this bitter incident behind us and the enemies found out the revolution cannot be diverted through these methods."

1230 GMT: New Mousavi-Karroubi Statement. As we still await the final word from the Ministry of Interior on requests for permits to march on 12 June, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have issued another statement, via both Karrroubi's Saham News and Mousavi's Kalemeh. In view of the threat to people's safety, they are withdrawing their request to march; however, they note the turnout on 25 Khordaad (15 June) last year, which was also in an "undeclared" protest. They continue, "In the great nation of Iran, it is not possible to block people on the way they have chosen and their creative role in making this path will appear....It is simplistic to think you can suppress the opposition with lies, threats, and humiliation."

1000 GMT: 22 Khordaad MediaFail. Reuters puts in an early candidate for worst pre-12 June "analysis": "Iran's Reformers Discouraged a Year after Vote".

On the basis of interviews with four --- count 'em, four --- Iranians, the comment of a political scientist, and an absence of any consideration of the latest developments in the political situation, the article assures us, "A year after Iran's disputed presidential vote, hardliners are firmly back in charge of a country where economic challenges and the nuclear dispute with the West now loom larger than a once-vibrant reform movement."

0843 GMT: Labour Front. Peyke Iran claims Saeed Torabian, the spokesman for Tehran bus workers, has been assaulted at home and taken away by security forces.

0839 GMT: Blood Money Will Make It All Go Away. Fereshteh Ghazi, speaking with the families of those killed in the post-election crisis reports: "Rather than conducting investigations to identify those who ordered and carried out the murder of protesters, the Iranian government has been pressuring the families of murdered protesters to forego holding memorials for their loved ones. One family member was told that “because the murderer was not identified, the case has been sent to the implementation division for payment of blood money from the public budget.”

0835 GMT: The Detained Journalists. More information on the status of imprisoned reporters and editors: a new list from the Committee to Protect Journalists has 37 currently imprisoned, but Reporters and Human Rights Activists of Iran counts 47 in jail, e.g.. Sousan Mohammadkhani Ghiasvand from Kurdistan, who does not appear on the CPJ list.

0830 GMT: A Solution. Rah-e-Sabz posts a long analysis from the Council of National-Religious Activists and its suggestion of five ways out of the crisis: 1) a free and protected rally on 22 Khordaad/12 June; 2) release of political prisoners and an end to executions; 3) restoring the political freedoms laid down in Constitution to the Iranian people, especially freedom of assembly, speech, and media; 4) an end to restrictions on political parties, non-governmental organisations and human rights organisations; 5) correction of election laws and free elections under impartial supervision.

0820 GMT: Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Despite the attempts by the Supreme Leader to referee the Parliament's dispute with the President, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani presses on. At a lecture, Larijani warned, "If legislative and judiciary branches become subordinated to executive branch, it might accelerate the process of following [the President's] plans. But it would lead to dictatorship." Larijani continued, playing up to Ayatollah Khamenei and putting down Ahmadinejad:

Centralization of the Supreme leader's power won't lead to corruption since the leader should possess special qualifications which are not taken into account when the parliament speaker and the president are elected. Therefore the executive branch must adhere to the laws defining its authority. The government is not allowed to interfere with the duties of the legislative branch and disagree what passed by the Majlis.

Khabar Online also features the statement of Larijani ally, MP Ahmad Tavakoli: "Although in observing the bills, the Majlis may not be flawless, the government is not authorized to disobey the laws ratified by the legislative branch. Even if the statesmen believe that a law can not be executed, they should formally request the Majlis to revoke that and help the lawmakers to ratify the bills with the least amount of mistakes."

0815 GMT: 4 June Follow-Up "The Shadow Man". Earlier this week, Mohammad Ali Ansari, the coordinator of the commemoration for Ayatollah Khomeini last Friday, wrote Seyed Hassan Khomeini about the disruption of the event with the heckling of Hassan Khomeini's speech. Ansari mentioned, amidst discussion of possible organisation of the sabotage, a "Commander Vahid".

Rooz Online does some investigating to find out who Commander Vahid is and how he might be connected to the Supreme Leader.

0733 GMT: 22 Khordaad. The number of cities around the world holding rallies on 12 June is now 79.

0723 GMT: Rafsanjani Trashes the Election (and Criticises the Supreme Leader)? Yesterday we passed on reports that the office of Hashemi Rafsanjani had put out a tough letter denouncing President Ahmadinejad's behaviour over the election and challenging Ayatollah Khamenei for remaining silent on the issue.

We've had a look at the letter on Rafsanjani's website and, despite the former President's normal caution, it seems quite challenging. Could it be that Rafsanjani, just before 22 Khordaad (12 June), is going to make a public stand against the President --- and ask the Supreme Leader to make a stand as well?

0720 GMT: Hanging Judges. Omid Memarian profiles "hardline" judges --- Abolghasem Salavati, Mohammad Moghiseh, and Pir-Abbasi --- of the Revolutionary Court.

0710 GMT: Winning With Information. We have posted an interview with activist Ahmad Batebi, "The People's Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information".

0625 GMT: Larijani Strikes A Nuclear Pose. He may be at odds with President Ahmadinejad on political issues, but Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani is making sure he's alongside the Government in defiance of the latest UN sanctions on Iran's nuclear programme.

Larijani said at a press conference, "We are regretful that the US is playing a naive game in New York these days," adding that this game was being led by the "Zionist lobby".
0615 GMT: No More Nedas? Rumour of the day comes from The New York Times, citing a pro-Government website:

A factory in Iran has been closed down after trying to mass produce statuettes of people who were killed in the protests that followed last year’s disputed presidential election, among them, Neda Agha-Soltan....

The pro-government Aty News Web site, reported on Wednesday that the factory, located in the eastern province of Semnan, was shuttered after just one month, though officials denied the closure.

The Web site....also states that the factory’s 40 female employees were discovered working without hejabs...and that they were mixing freely with the male members of the staff.

0545 GMT: 22 Khordaad. Yet another invitation to show up on 12 June comes from the students of Azad University of Tehran.

0530 GMT: First, a reminder of Iran just over 48 hours before the anniversary of the elections --- last night's rooftop Allahu Akhbars (God is Great):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B073FkNZdDQ&playnext_from=TL&videos=4udYKWS5xNc[/youtube]

We have also posted yet another interview by Mehdi Karroubi in the run-up to 12 June. He reviews the development of Iran from the Revolution to today and, despite much pessimism, asserts, "In The End, The Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran".

Of course, the headline story in non-Iranian media is yesterday's UN Security Council resolution for a new set of sanctions on Tehran. Even that, however, could not completely escape the internal situation in Iran: we have posted the video of President Obama's comments, with his reference to the "repression" of the Iranian people, and a snap analysis in yesterday's updates.

Dave Siavashi of Iran News Now evaluates the developments and puts out this warning: "The sanctions lend an air of legitimacy to the regime’s claim that nefarious outside forces, or Doshman (the all encompassing enemy), as [Ayatollah] Khamenei likes to refer to them, have it in for Iran; thereby giving the hardcore Islamist radicals of the regime a pretext and excuse for continued harsh repression of the opposition."

Iran Interview: Ahmad Batebi "People’s Movement Will Stay Alive with Knowledge and Information"

A discussion with activist Ahmad Batebi in Washington DC:

Persian2English: To what extent has the Freedom movement in Iran been successful in attracting the Iranian population that supports the government and/or the regime?

Ahmad Batebi: In Iran, there are two groups of people with connections to the government: those who ideologically believe in the system and those who receive benefits and monetary compensation. The former group, who is either brainwashed or is a supporter through family ties, would not join the Green Movement even if they were dissatisfied with the government. They would rather opt for political apathy and inaction. The latter group, however, will join the movement, if their funding is cut. Albeit, they join only as a number. Their effect is minimal.

P2E: Leading to the 1979 Revolution, Iranians living in remote areas were informed of Ayatollah Khomeini’s speeches and revolutionary ideas, even though Internet and satellite did not exist back then. Clerics visited rural areas and preached similarly to the way we receive information via technology. However, today, a lack of independent media creates a gap that is controlled by the Iranian regime. What are the challenges associated with information-spreading and how do we overcome state censorship?



Batebi: The recent political history of other countries demonstrate that a social network is the most effective way to inform and educate. For example, four students can gather in a cafe and share news with each other who will share with the people around them (and then it is passed on to others). The clerics during the 1979 Revolution used these mechanisms of social networking. And yes, now, even though the media is much more abundant, it is censored.

We have to consider the censorship of the Iranian government as ineffective. Censorship exists through satellite (based mainly abroad) and domestic media and on the Internet. Inside Iran, not much can be done about censorship. It is impossible to run a newspaper without it being subject to state censorship. However, the Iranian expatriates can put pressure on foreign governments to facilitate the Iranian people’s access to the mediums of information (i.e., the Internet).

It does not mean each one of us has to set up a media and have people listen to or read it. We should provide people with proxies, anti-filtering software, and VPN so they can choose to access whatever they wish.





P2E: It appears that in the wake of the brutal and widespread crackdown of the June 2009 election protests, a wave of disappointment, pessimism, and lethargy has prevailed over the Iranian society. Persistence of this wave can result in missing a historical opportunity to be on the path to democracy. What approaches do you suggest for revitalizing the hope of society in addition to their drive and enthusiasm? What role can the Iranian Diaspora play in this regard?

Batebi: If any social movement does not achieve its goals in a limited period of time, then its government will become immune to the effects. Consider the student uprising in the summer of 1999. The city was in the hands of protesters for nearly a week. Then, [the regime] cracked down and the uprising cooled off. A few years passed and no action was possible, even on the anniversary of the uprising. This is the case for the Green Movement too: the protests did not blossom because the regime is immune.

Now, what can be done?

We have to consider three issues:

First, we should analyze the environment of the movement. What feeds it? What does its survival depend on? [The answer is] information and knowledge. For example, if the citizens of Tehran don’t realize that people in Tabriz protested the day before, or if Iranians don’t receive messages by leaders like Karroubi or Moussavi, or if they are not informed of the protests that occur outside the UN buildings against Ahmadinejad, then they will continue to go on with their daily lives. This is how the regime stifles the flow of information.

On the other hand, we should remember that the Iranian people are dealing with economic difficulties. They have to fight against the regime and put food on the table at the same time. That is a lot of pressure. Outside Iran, we go to work in the morning and come back in the afternoon to devote our time to the Iranian freedom movement. That is our main concern. However, in Iran, people need to fight against the regime and struggle to make ends meet. they are under much more pressure.

Second, we should create a ground so that the flow of information and knowledge remains constant in society. Second, we have to raise the price the government has to pay for committing human rights violations. In other words, the Islamic Republic should not dare to throw people into prison so easily. We have to establish a strong information network to spread the news of our compatriots from inside to the world.

Third, we have to take new measures such as boycotting any interests the coup d’état government has abroad, similar to the FAO [UN Food and Agricultural Organization] conference in Italy where Ahmadinejad and [Zimbabwe President Robert] Mugabe were not invited to the official dinner ceremony. We also need to stop Khatam-ol Anbia, an (engineering) firm controlled by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, from gaining their interests. This action needs to be taken by Iranians inside Iran.

We should have news regarding Iran in foreign media everyday and thereby influence foreign governments. We have to keep the people of our host countries updated on Iran’s main issues. When people are informed, they urge the media and politicians (to spread the news) and then governments are forced to react. That is how we can achieve a global consensus [in support of the movement].





P2E: In the wake of the election, many people became active in the process of information-spreading. What are your thoughts on this? Are activists doing enough work or should more be done?

Batebi: Spreading the news and informing is different from engaging in serious activities. Sometimes, you write a news piece or you translate it or you upload it on a website. On a scale of 1 to 100, these effort combined are worth 40. We have to achieve 100.





P2E: How?

Batebi: We should have someone in the media who we keep informed [about Iran's news] and who is invited to Iranian events and discussions. We have to force this person to listen. We need to provide this person with the most accurate news for publication. Informing and spreading the news is only part of the job. It is more complicated to oblige the media to cover the news and to take a stance.





P2E: The Iranian people’s opposition to the Islamic Republic is not new. However, after the 2009 election, more people got involved inside and outside Iran. Will you comment on the Green Movement? What is this movement after all? Do you agree with the term “green”? If so, what does Green mean to you?

Batebi: Traditionally, we have always had opposition outside Iran. This opposition was either monarchist, or leftist and socialist, Mujahedin (MKO), or it had ties with the National Front. This is the traditional composition of Iran’s opposition movement, and the nature of their operations is clear-cut.  However, from a logical point of view, our work is useful when it is effective. It is true that there has always been opposition to the regime, but how successful has it been? Has the (traditional) opposition been able to do anything in Iran?  They have not. Their work and conduct has not been right. Their efforts are acknowledged, because they have worked hard, but it has been ineffective. People see and understand this. Moreover, people who are in Iran have a different way of expressing their demands because they are limited, thus their ways of expression are different than the traditional opposition.

During the 1997 Iranian presidential election, many people voted for [Mohammad] Khatami. This vote did not mean that we accepted Khatami and his mode of thought and we believed in his clerical attire. I voted for Khatami. This does not  mean I defended his thoughts or even the reformist movement. The vote was to send a message to the ruling establishment that we want something different than them.

The people’s demands for a civil society that embodies freedom of expression, equality between genders, the rights of children, labour unions, and students was not realized. And with the arrival of Ahmadinejad, the situation deteriorated. Then came the 2009 election where [MIr Hossein] Mousavi (who has a revolutionary background and has worked closely with Ayatollah Khomeini) and [Mehdi] Karroubi (who is in the same boat) were candidates. People voted for them. Again, this did not mean that they accepted Mousavi’s statements and beliefs. People are saying that we do not want what the regime wants, we will go and vote for somebody who is saying something different.

Now, an opposition has formed that has a different structure than the traditional opposition. They are all opposition but they have different forms. And now the Green Movement opposition….

Let me talk about  "green” first.

During the electoral campaign, each candidate camp chose a colour. Yellow was for Ahmadinejad, red was for Karroubi,  and green was for Mousavi.  Since the supporters of Mousavi were greater in number, green became the colour of the opposition movement. We do not necessarily agree with everything, but the Green movement possesses distinct characteristics that is also supported by Khatami, Karroubi, and Mousavi, such as encompassing  all people under its umbrella.

You look and see people in the Green Movement who are secular and some who are religious. They all say, “We don’t want this regime, we want human rights, we want equality between men and women.” It is the first time such a thing has happened. All social movements gradually reach this point.

Now, there are distinguished personalities in the movement like Karroubi and Mousavi who have the ability to mobilize people. Some consider them the leaders, others don’t. I believe they are leaders but just as much as the people. For example, when Karroubi announces that  people should take part in the anniversary of the June 12th election, he is displaying leadership. However, people are taking the lead too.  For example, on Ashura (27 December), nobody called out for the people to come out, but they took to the streets and protested. Thus, everyone is a leader, because everyone is carrying out his or her duties.





P2E: If the Green Movement is defined through Mousavi and Karroubi, then does the Green movement want the Islamic Republic? Some activists oppose green for this reason and opt for the term “people’s movement” instead. Noticeably, the difference in name for the opposition has resulted in a divide within the opposition, even though the main goals seem to be similar. What can we do to eliminate this (divide)?

Batebi: People think that the “Green Movement” and the “People’s movement” are different, but they are the same. You have a democratic movement when a “Green” supporter and a “People’s movement” supporter are classified in the same group. The vitality of the movement depends on these people communicating and finding common ground.

I think if the Islamic Republic is removed, it will be disastrous because we have nothing to offer. Not Mousavi and Karroubi, nor the opposition outside Iran can form a government. They can argue and fight and try to find common ground.

We only have one movement and that is the People’s Movement. Some say they are green, some say they are leftists, and some are monarchists or Mujaheds. We cannot have a successful government without participation from all fractions. For example, the Greens should understand that they are not the only “Greens” since all people are included.

By the way, the Green debate mostly occurs outside Iran. When security forces shoot at crowds in Iran and everybody is running away, no one is thinking, “You’re Mujahedin, therefore I will not run away with you.” When someone is shot by a bullet and falls to the ground, people don’t say, “You’re a communist so we won’t help you.” These are the preoccupations of Iranians living outside the country.

We have to think like people inside Iran. For people there, it is not important what our fights are about. People who say we are Green and the movement belongs to “us” just want to distinguish themselves from the traditional opposition. This is wrong. In tomorrow`s Iran, everybody, including Hizbollah members, have the right to form political parties and run for election. If people vote for them, they will be elected. This is democracy!

In order to have a successful movement, it is important to remember that the colour green does not just belong to (the opposition leaders). Mousavi states that we are successful and the movement is alive only when all opposition (parties) are included in the movement.

Iran Document: Karroubi "In the End, the Wiser Ones Will Take Over Iran" (9 June)

Mehdi Karroubi's interview with Rooz Online, published 9 June and translated by Khordaad 88:

Mr Karroubi, you have said before that you expected after Imam Khomeini’s death you will become more isolated by some individuals , who are these individuals ? and Why?

There was difference of opinion and approach among the forces and factions [at that time] . In other words , some had different interpretations of Islam, state and the Islamic republic [than us]. Since these factions were more close to centers of power=;, their views and opinions were more likely to be implemented.

Which groups?

Political groups like Motalefeh Party, Association of Clergy, Association of Religious Teachers. We had differences of opinion that led to discussions and arguments between us. These differences revolved around issues such as , taxation, municipal land, and other issues that were important at the time. However, Imam Khomeini’s support for us or our ideas would set them back. They had also come to understand that Imam preferred our opinions over theirs despite the fact that he had respect for them and he would appoint some of their important members to the Guardian Council.



These differences led to formation of the Expediency Discernment Council . As Dr. Mehrpour mentioned [once], if the Guardian Council had adopted a more open policy toward various issues and would consider Imam Khomeini’s warning, the Expediency Council would not have been formed. But we knew after Imam’s death , those groups will increase their power and presence, and we will become more isolated. And this is what has happened. Using their power through the Special Clerical Court, the Guardian Council and individuals that I do not want to name isolated the Imam’s Path forces.

Are the individuals that you prefer not to name the same people that you have referred to previously and said: “They could not tolerate a party office or newspaper”, “They want [to take control of ] the government to satisfy their own interests", “They engaged in fraudulent activity after the death of Imam Khomeini"?  Who are these people?

They are the same people who run the country now. In the judiciary they are those who order newspapers and offices closed. They are in the Ministry of Intelligence....They are in Basij, IRGC [Islamic Revolution Guards Corps], and among the Friday Prayer Imams. I should also mention that the traditional conservative forces with whom we were friends before despite our many differences have also to various degrees supported these people. Unfortunately, now an entirely new group of people with Ahmadinejad on top and others in lower ranks are leading [the country].

[Previously] you talked about the boat of the state that does not have capacity for 70 million people. In this turbulent sea of politics, is there a chance that this boat will reach the shore safely?

It is obvious that a boat does not have much capacity to manoeuvre even in calm waters. The sea needs a giant ship. And when the sea turns stormy and turbulent , 70 million people should be present to safely guide the ship to the shore. Therefore I think the current situation will not last [for long] and we are eventually forced to return to reforms although we will have to pay the costs.

What do you think the most important issues of the country are?

Losing the trust of the nation, militarizing the society, and deviating from the ideals of the revolution [are the most important issues we face today]. We have reduced ourselves to such a low level that we treat the family of Imam Khomeini with such disrespect [a reference to the treatment of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson, Seyed Hassan Khomeini, at the 4 June ceremony for his grandfather's death]. They dare tell Mr. Jamarani, who has been organizing ceremonies on this day for Imam for 20 years, to stop organizing the ceremony this year.

Do we have to witness changing the mood of the society to one of fear where tight security and control is imposed every day? Do we have to see forces armed with anti-riot shields march our streets every day? Nothing will work like this. The government should create security not constrain it. The way the authorities define "security’"seems very different [than what it should be]. Despite all, I believe this situation would not last; in the end the wiser ones will take over.

Everyone’s talking about the necessity to reexamine the Constitution. Where do you see the source of the problems in the Constitution? What should be done?

Every constitution has its own faults. I have said this many times. There is only one book without mistakes, and that’s the holy book, Quran. As Muslims we believe in that. It is possible that a non-Muslim becomes critical of Quran. [No book is perfect, and] it is for this very reason that Imam [Khomeini] allowed the possibility to reexamine the constitution. It is a common practice in the whole world to change the laws according to the most recent conditions and needs of the day. However, even if this constitution is acted upon [in our society], many of our problems would be resolved.

According to the existing constitution, the head of the judiciary is chosen by Supreme Leader. Does this process interfere with the independence of the judiciary branch? Do you not see any contradictions in this process?

At the time, those who created this process did the right thing. But right now we are degrading this law with our actions. Keep in mind that this process was not always like this, and later changed to become as such. Early on, five people constituted the leadership of the judiciary branch. Two of them were chosen by the Supreme Leader and three of them were chosen by a group of judges in a free and competitive election process. The problem right now is that the judiciary branch cannot act on its own and is taken over by the security officials.

What is the main demand of the Green Movement, and what can it be?

This movement that manifests itself through calm, nonviolent protests that takes the form of civil disobedience is created out of the insult and dissatisfaction that resulted from different elections.

Which elections?

The 7th and 8th parliamentary elections and the 9th and 10th Presidential elections. All the dissatisfactions piled up until it exploded after the 10th Presidential elections. This movement is originates from the hearts of people; it is a self-evolving movement. It is a movement that was created over the structure of force that the authorities created for people.

What are you after in this movement?

We are looking to see the full enactment of the Constitution: that we can have a free and sound election,and benefit from free political parties and newspapers; that students are free [to express what they want]. What we are looking for is that no one chooses the destiny of people for them. Accordingly, I believe that if even the current Constitution is enacted, despite the criticisms, many solutions would unfold. But unfortunately, some even don’t abide by this law. Those in power right now act despotically out of their own interests.

To achieve victory, how should the Green Movement move on from here? Wouldn’t the current process gradually degrade the movement? What must be done? What can be done?

Discontent and defiance in the nation will continue. Though people are more conservative in expressing their discontent, they are just waiting for the right moment to express themselves. This does not weaken the movement but the government. With regards to ways that the movement can proceed: first, people’s presence is the most important and critical thing for this movement or any other movement. Second, the movement cannot be after instant success; what comes easily goes just as easily.

The movement must be lively, it must reach out to people and strengthen its grass-root support. The gentlemen are presenting an untrue depiction of this movement to the public. They say this movement is against your religion and culture. They are publicizing this movement as a threat to national security and claim it will bring about a similar situation in Iran as is present in Iraq and Afghanistan. We must fight off these false publicized accusations while spreading our own messages to widest possible audience.

We are after security, peace, and calm for the country. We are loyal to this country. We are fighting dictatorship and fascism. We want to establish the rule of law. Thus evangelizing, organizing, and staying in touch with each other are important. The government is quite sensitive to these activities as it has confronted them in many occasions. This is a great testament to the effectiveness of these activities. So, despite what they might say, I don’t think the movement is diminishing,-; it is in fact growing.

What did Mehdi Karroubi think of the future in 1989 and how does that compare to the way events have been rolling out?

We thought the revolution would bring about mutual respect for every person and her/his ideas and rights. We wanted the revolution to bring about equality and respect for Islam. But that did not happen.

In those days, people were in with the government, they knew everything that was going on. That’s because we realized our legitimacy came from people’s approval. We wanted to be a role model and a leader in the world and tried hard to reach these goals. Of course some of the blame lies with us and some with others.

The fact of the matter is that in the beginning of the revolution, there were some violent struggles. Parts of the country stated independence and invaded central government’s military bases. Azarbayejan, Gonbad, Khozestan, and Kordestan were amongst those regions. The late Mr. Taleghani and Mr. Foroohar traveled to these regions to speak to the people and try to resolve the conflicts. After that, assassinations of the country’s intellectuals and leaders started: Martyrs Motahari, Beheshti, Ghazi, Tabatabaie, Mofateh, and many others.

In those day, secret shared homes were created by the armed militants and violent confrontations started taking shape. The war against Iraq started as these conflicts were still ongoing. When the presidential headquarters and political party headquarters of a country are blown up by internal anti government militants, it is obvious that the country is headed towards radicalism. In any case, they didn’t make it possible to achieve the goals that we had; we missed the chance. In those years, after the bombings, we had the worst situation in the Parliament. Government officials were under pressure by the war, internal conflicts and assassinations, and the country’s management…. These were difficult times. Those who created the internal conflicts did a great injustice to this country.

On the Israel-Palestine issue: If two countries reach an agreement,  what would be your position?

We might have an ideal position in our mind, but we should realize that Palestine belongs to Palestinians, so if they reached an agreement that they find pleasing, we should congratulate them.

Iran is facing detrimental quandaries in its foreign policy, if you were in charge what policy would you adopt regarding the following issues: the US?

I believe that,with the exception of Israel, we should have relationship with all other countries. Despite everything that has happened between Iran and United States, I think we should reestablish the relations without neglecting Iran’s dignity and independence. Unfortunately Iran-US relations have become a domestic political discussion in Iran. When one side agrees to normalizing relations , another side opposes and vice versa . It has become an internal quarrel between different streams.

Relations with China and Russia?

We have normal relations with both countries now, and I agree that we should. I travelled to both countries when I was head of the parliament numerous times in order to expand our political and economical relations. Russia is our neighbour, therefore we should maintain our relations. I should mention though that states only seek their own interests in relations with other states. Having relations with another country should be based on benefits [that we seek].

Nuclear issue?

We should become more transparent We should negotiate, we should defend our rights, but we should also make [our intention and conduct] more transparent.

The human rights file?

The human rights are those rights that belong to all people. These rights are undermined today in many countries. For example, in Palestine, these rights are completely ignored by the Israelis. In our country too, on some issues these rights are undermined. We must not abuse human rights like a political tool.

What I believe is that we cannot take human right issues very seriously for one country, and then ignore them completely for another one. One obvious example of the latter is the human rights issue in the conflict between Israel and Palestine.

If we divide the history of Islamic Republic into different periods, from Mr. Karroubi’s perspective, which period would be closest to the ideals of the Islamic Revolution and which period was the furthest from them?

Naturally every revolution is closest to its ideals at the very early state. I have said this many times. In every revolution, radical moves and abrupt reactions break out due to inexperience and immaturity. I can say this confidently: most of those who act radically now are those who acted in a radical way back then. The first decade was one of ideals. We gradually entered a different atmosphere that concluded in what we see right now. I believe the worst conditions are what we have right now.

And last question: What is your greatest wish today?

I wish for governance of people, denial of outsiders’ interference, and insiders’ despotism. I wish for health and prosperity of this nation, for the greatness of Iran, development of our country. I wish for rise of pride for Islam and enactment of its rules. I don’t believe in imposing our perspectives; I don’t mean interfering with private lives of people. What I mean by wishing enactment of rules is enactment of ethics in the society, enactment of justice, and keeping the dignity and respect of people.