Iran: The Attack on Montazeri, Sane'i, Karroubi

UPDATE 1730 GMT: Journalist Masih Alijenad reports that the home of Sohrab Arabi, who was killed during the 15 June demonstrations, was attacked by plainclothesmen this weekend. Alinejad's revelation comes in an interview with Arabi's mother, activist Parvin Fahimi.



An article in Saham News, the website linked to Mehdi Karroubi --- translated by the Facebook page linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi --- both clarifies and indicates the seriousness of Sunday's harassment of Karroubi, Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, and the family of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. More links and information can be found in our updates for today:

Mehdi Karroubi traveled to the city of Qom to visit Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, a senior reformist figure, at 2:00 PM local time yesterday 13 June. A short time after Mehdi Karroubi arrived at the house of Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, a group of organized thugs gathered in front and started chanting slogans against Karroubi and Sane'i. These plainclothes thugs attacked the car of Mehdi Karroubi with chains and batons and severely damaged it. These individuals, by throwing stones at the house of Grand Ayatollah Sane'i ,vandalized the building. The thugs chanted slogans against Seyyed Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the late Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mir Hossein Mousavi, and in support of the Supreme Leader.

Mehdi Karroubi at 6:30 PM local time, after leaving the house of Grand Ayatollah Sane'i, first went to the house of Ahmad Montazeri, the eldest son of late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, who was the spiritual leader of the Green Movement, then visited Saeed Montazeri, another son of late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, and finally went to the house of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. Unfortunately, when Mehdi Karroubi was visiting the family of late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, these thugs, by attacking and throwing stones to the house of the late Grand Ayatollah, broke the windows and severely vandalized the building.

At 11:30 PM Mehdi Karroubi, because of this mob attack on the house of late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and the request by the Revolutionary Guards, police, and security forces of the city of Qom moved to the building owned by Revolutionary Guards and next to the house of the later Grand Ayatollah. Finally, with arrangements by the security forces of the city of Qom at 4:00 AM on Monday, 14 June, Karroubi left the Revolutionary Guards’ building and returned to Tehran.

Mehdi Karroubi travelled to the city of Qom yesterday to visit with Grand Ayatollah Saanei and Seyyed Hassan Khomeini.

Gaza Latest (14 June): Iranian Aid Ship Sails; Israel to Ease Blockade Amidst Enquiry?

Iran Intervenes with Aid (and Politics?): Tehran is proclaiming that its "flotilla" has begun to ease the Gaza blockade. State radio said one ship had left port Sunday and another will depart by Friday, loaded with food, construction material and toys. "Until the end of the Gaza blockade, Iran will continue to ship aid," said an official at Iran's Society for the Defense of the Palestinian Nation. 

Netanyahu Launches Internal Enquiry: Israel's media features the statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to his Cabinet this morning that West Jeruslaem's internal enquiry into the assault upon the Freedom Flotilla must give a "credible and convincing response" to the world. 

Gaza Latest (13 June): Rumblings of the Next Flotilla

The committee will be headed by a retired Supreme Court judge Jacob Terkel, with an international law expert a retired Major General as the other members. Except for Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Gaby Ashkenazi, no Israeli troops will testify. Instead, the Israel Defense Forces  will provide summaries of its own operational investigations.  

Netanyahu declared, "I estimate that the cabinet's decision this morning to establish a special, independent public commission will make it clear to the entire world that the State of Israel acts according to law, transparently, and with full responsibility."

Europe Talks Up Israel's Easing of Blockade: 

EU diplomats are putting out signals that West Jerusalem will soon agree to a relaxation of the restrictions on import of goods into Gaza. They say Israel will replace its private, restrictive list with a short, agreed list of items banned because of Israeli security concerns 

One diplomat said that there were "positive indications" that Israel might be willing to open either the Karni or the Kerem Shalom border crossings for large-scale imports into Gaza.“The most important part of what we can do is to try and provide support to actually get the crossings open and to … help people rebuild their homes, to provide for businesses, to try to support everyday things,” EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton said.

Britain’s Foreign Secretary William Hague added, “We should be ready to assist at any time with the policy of the crossings and whatever else we can do to assist." 

Red Cross Calls for Lifting of Blockade

In a sharply-worded report, the International Committee of the Red Cross concludes, "The hardship faced by Gaza's 1.5 million people cannot be addressed by providing humanitarian aid. The only sustainable solution is to lift the closure." The Red Cross cited "ruined livelihoods", dangers to health, and poor sanitation arising from the Israeli restrictions on Gaza.

Afghanistan Special: New Report on Pakistan's Intelligence Links with Insurgents (Waldman)

There has been a lot of media furour over the last 48 hours about a new report about the relationship between Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence and the insurgents.

This morning, for example, The Guardian of London features a denial by Pakistani President Asif Zardari of the report's claim that he met with insurgents in April to assure them of his support. Surprisingly, however, almost none of the media coverage does more than cite a couple of dramatic sentences from the report, and I can only find one article that takes the reader to the study.



Based on 67 interviews, 22 of them with insurgents in Afghanistan, "The Sun in the Sky: The Relationship between Pakistan's ISI and Afghan Insurgents"  is written by Matt Waldman of Harvard University and issued by the London School of Economics' Development Studies Institute. This is the Conclusion, followed by the link to the entire report:

Afghanistan: What Happens When Our Allies “Do More”? (Mull)

The Taliban movement has a strong internal impetus and dynamic. Numerous studies have shown that there are endogenous drivers of the insurgency, and this is confirmed by the interviews. Taliban and Haqqani fighters are motivated by a range of factors, many of which relate to government predation, corruption or injustice, and the perceived aggression of foreign military forces.

Thus, despite the claims of many interviewees, the ISI (and elements of the Pakistani
military) may not actually control the Afghan insurgency, which implies power over all major dimensions of the movement and its campaign, and the ability to bring it to an end. However, as the provider of sanctuary, and very substantial financial, military and logistical support to the insurgency, the ISI appears to have strong strategic and operational influence –-- reinforced by coercion. There is thus a strong case that the ISI and elements of the military are deeply involved in the insurgent campaign, and have powerful influence over the Haqqani network.

This relationship appears to be of a different nature, or at least order of magnitude, than
suggested by most studies. However, this assessment has been shared with three experienced Afghan analysts and two senior western security officials, who concur with the principal findings.

It means that without a change in Pakistani behaviour it will be difficult if not impossible for international forces and the Afghan government to make progress against the insurgency. It also means that, as one southern commander put it, ‘if the ISI doesn’t support negotiations [with the Afghan government], then they won’t succeed.’

Perhaps more significantly, it is hard to see how the international coalition can continue to treat Pakistan as an ally and ‘effective partner’. Only last December President Obama affirmed that ‘we are committed to a partnership that is built on a foundation of mutual interest, mutual respect and mutual trust.’92 Since 2001 America has provided Pakistan with $11.6 billion in security-related assistance and $6 billion in economic aid. It is due to provide at least $7.5 billion dollars of aid over the next five years.

Pakistani officers are even represented on the Tripartite Joint Intelligence Operation Center situated in ISAF Headquarters in Kabul. American and other western intelligence agencies must be aware of Pakistan’s conduct. The apparent contradiction –-- backing the enemy’s backer – is perhaps a reflection of America’s preoccupation with the threat it faces from Al Qaeda and associated groups, rather than the Afghan Taliban. It may reflect a reluctance to confront an unstable, nuclear-armed country that faces a serious internal threat from Pakistani Taliban groups. It may also reflect a concern not to jeopardise Pakistani cooperation in preventing terrorist attacks against western targets;
or a fear of galvanising extremism among Pakistani immigrant communities.

Nevertheless, Pakistan appears to be playing a double-game of astonishing magnitude. The conflict has led to the deaths of over 1,000 American and 700 other foreign military
personnel; thousands of Afghan soldiers, police, officials and civilians; and an unknown
number of Afghan, Pakistani and other foreign insurgents. It has already cost America nearly $300 billion, and now costs over $70 billion a year (Belasco 2009). As a Haqqani commander put it: ‘Of course Pakistan is the main cause of the problems [in Afghanistan] but America is behind Pakistan.’

The Pakistan government’s apparent duplicity – and awareness of it among the American
public and political establishment – could have enormous geo-political implications. It could jeopardise American financial support: security-related assistance is conditional on Pakistan’s cooperation on Afghanistan.97 Moreover, it could trigger punitive counter-measures by the US and its allies, or direct military action against the Afghan Taliban in Pakistani territory. However, an aggressive American response to Pakistan’s conduct is only likely to generate further instability, especially given the army’s on-going battle against Pakistani militant groups and widespread anti-American sentiment among the population. The priority must be to address the fundamental causes of Pakistan’s insecurity, in particular its latent and enduring conflict with India. This requires a regional peace process and, as Bruce Riedel has argued, American backing for moves towards a resolution of the Kashmir dispute. It should be accompanied by support for military and political reform, and a combination of incentives and disincentives to persuade Pakistan’s elite that support for Islamic militants is no longer in Pakistan’s national interests (see Fair 2009 and Fischer 2010).

Even this is no panacea for the Afghan conflict; it merely makes treatment possible. So long as the root causes remain – especially a corrupt, exclusionary, unjust government, and the perception among some Afghans of an aggressive, self-serving foreign military presence –-- then the violence will continue.

Read entire report....

Iran Analysis: The Regime's Next Push Against "Nothing Special"

Having failed to shut down all public signs of opposition this weekend, the Iranian Government seems to be making yet one more push to get rid of pesky dissent.

On the one hand, authorities are playing down the demonstrations of 22 Khordaad (12 June). Tehran police chief Hossein Sajedinia claimed, “Throughout yesterday nothing particular happened in the capital and a limited number of people, about 91 suspects, were arrested by the police and delivered to the judiciary.” (Opposition reports of detentions range from 200 in Tehran to more than 900 across Iran.)

Deputy Commander Ahmadreza Radan asserted that only a few people, "deceived by anti- Revolutionary television and internet networks”, were detained. He added, "Nothing special happened."



Given that"nothing special" happened, the Government sure did appear jumpy yesterday. There are reports that all blogs based on WordPress --- EA is one (though, in case anyone in Tehran is not, it will not be from this summer) --- have been filtered.

After a period in which he tried to use contact with political prisoners to get them to "repent", Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi also appears to be taking a tougher line. Kalemeh reports that his office has slapped on tough restrictions on detainees' meetings with their families.

But perhaps the most ominous sign that the supposed non-events of 22 Khordaad will be met with renewed aggression came beyond the Government with claims of Basiji intimidation of senior clerics and opposition figures. Sunday was "distinguished" by reports, accompanied by video, of plainclothes protesters harassing Saeed Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, Grand Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i, and Mehdi Karroubi. That challenge, with an apparent declaration, "We want to make it such that these guys can never insult Islam or the revolution again", follows the humiliation of Seyed Hassan Khomeini, the Ayatollah's grandson, on 4 June.

But here the paradox of the Government's supposed legitimacy arises. With each loud turn of the screw, not just against the opposition but against those who are supposedly part of the Iranian system, President Ahmadinejad and Co. provoke more dissent from within. While 22 Khordaad temporarily overtook last week's challenge to the Government from conservative/principlist figures like Ali Motahari, expect that challenge to re-emerge this week.

(Over the weekend, Mohammad Nabi Habibi, the Secretary General of the Motalefeh Party, gave an extensive interview to Khabar Online in which he said, "We are no longer criticising but protesting against" the President's chief aide Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai for his deviation from Islam, writing six letters to Ahmadinejad. , wrote AN about 6 letters.

Habibi added the complaint that the President was not kind to parties other than those that he considered "good smelling" --- rayehe khosh khedmat.)

"Nothing special" sure does feel a bit tense this morning.

The Latest from Iran (13 June): And So It Goes On....

2130 GMT: We close the night with two features. We bask in the glory of being filtered by the Iranian Government (though reports tonight say that all WordPress-based sites are being filtered), and we have the text of Mehdi Karroubi's interview with CNN.

1950 GMT: Containing the Clerics (cont.). Now Basiji are reported to be outside the office of Saeed Montazeri, the son of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri.

There is also claimed video of a hostile crowd, with one making a fiery speech criticising opposition figures, outside Ayatollah Sane'i's home, which Mehdi Karroubi reportedly visited.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyIzdSgkb5Q&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

NEW Iran Document: Karroubi “Greens Stronger & More Mature Than Last Year” (12 June)
NEW Iran Special: EA Gets Highest Award from Tehran Government!
NEW Iran: The US State Department’s Comment on the Election Anniversary
NEW Iran Result: The 22 Khordaad Cup “Greens 1, Darks 0″ (Lucas)
Iran Analysis: 22 Khordaad — What Happened and What It Means (Shahryar)
Latest Iran Video: Protests of 22 Khordaad (12 June)
Iran: Not Forgetting 22 Khordaad “The Day We Chose to Live” (Pedestrian)
The Latest from Iran (12 June): 22 Khordaad

1640 GMT: Containing the Cleric. Kalemeh reports that Grand Ayatollah Sane'i's home in Qom was surrounded by Basiji militia. The plainclothesmen chanted slogans against Sane'i  and Mehdi Karroubi, who was visiting a memorial service in the city.

Karroubi's son said his father's car was badly damaged by the militia.

1630 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Azad University student activist Salman Sima was seized by plainclothes agents on Enghelab Avenue and taken to an unknown location.

Sima was also arrested in November 2009 and spent nearly 100 days in detention.

Kourosh Jannati, an Allameh Tabatabei University literature student, was arrested after reporting to the university’s security office. Aptin Pegah and Babak Ghiyasi, both Razi University students, were arrested in Kermanshah after a campus rally.

1625 GMT: The Battle Within. So we asked in the item below, "Establishment stalwart Abdolhossein Ruholamini may have defended the Supreme Leader, but what of the Government?"

Let's have a look at the answer:

The remarkable participation of people in support of the system on various occasions should not be construed as a pretext to conceal the inefficiency and incompetence of some state officials, [Ruholamnini] underlined.

Last year “I deemed it appropriate that president Ahmadinejad would not stay in the office…. At the time I was supporting another candidate and I believed that he was qualified and competent to become the next president, Ruholamini stated.

Ruholamini criticized the performance of the national TV prior and after the election in supporting a particular candidate.

Such performance gave rise to the belief among the public that the national TV is taking side, thus the root cause of some regrettable events after the election could be attributed to such impartial performance, he added.

Without providing a “tranquil environment” in the society based on “reason and understanding” it would be impossible to properly run the country, he explained.

Unfortunately a group of people who claim to support the principlist axioms has totally ignored moral principles and in order to harm their rivals resort to any immoral means, he lamented.

Under such environment, it is noticed that critics and those who are serving the system are removed from their duties under different pretexts.

“I should say that such an approach is not an appropriate strategy to resolve problems,” he added.

1500 GMT: The Kahrizak Legacy. Abdolhossein Ruholamini, the campaign manager for Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei and the father of slain detainee Mohsen Ruholamini, has made an interesting manoeuvre in Khabar Online.

Ruholamini has declared that he is certain the Supreme Leader cares for the injured protesters. Fair enough --- Ayatollah Khamenei is covered.

But if the Supreme Leader is not to blame, what of the Government?

1400 GMT: US Puts Out Line on Human Rights. I'm not sure how we missed this yesterday....

The State Department has put out the strongest American statement on human rights in Iran since June 2009, calling for "the immediate release of all imprisoned human rights defenders" (and listing some of them by name).

We've posted the text in a separate entry.

1315 GMT: How Many Were Arrested on 22 Khordaad? Rah-e-Sabz amidst reports on Mashhad, Najafabad, Sistan and Baluchestan, and Shiraz as well as Tehran, says more than 200 were arrested in the capital.

1235 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Activist Davoud Solemani has written an open letter to the Supreme Leader about "my interrogation with beatings and insults".

1225 GMT: How Many Were Arrested on 22 Khordaad? Human Rights Activists News Agency claim that more than 600 men and 300 women were detained at some point yesterday.

1145 GMT: Economy Watch --- All is Well Edition. Central Bank Governor Mahmud Bahmani has put out the message, "Iran will pay a guaranteed 10 percent interest on foreign investment…the Central Bank and Economy Ministry will guarantee the return of the principal and capital profit."

1115 GMT: Journalist in Exile. The Guardian of London features an article by Saeed Kamali Dehghan, a reporter who fled Iran last summer, leaving his family behind.

0815 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. Rah-e-Sabz, drawing from Iran Labor News Agency, claims that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, speaking as chairman of the Expediency Council, condemned the heckling of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson Seyed Hassan Khomeini at the 4 June ceremony commemorating the death of his grandfather.

0810 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Iran Labor Report summarises the recent arrests of labour activists. Reza Shahabi of the Tehran Bus Workers Union is the most recent detainee, picked up yesterday morning at work.

0805 GMT: And in Southeastern Iran. RAHANA reports, "On Saturday June 12, 2010, a silent demonstration and hunger strike ceremony was held at the University of Sistan and Baluchestan. About 1000 people attended this ceremony from different ethnic backgrounds, including Kurdish, Lor and Baluch....At the end of this gathering, students held a large human chain and announced they would hold another gathering in case any disciplinary verdicts was issued for them."

0755 GMT: 22 Khordaad Around the World. While our attention was on the day inside Iran, rallies in more than 80 cities outside the country marked the anniversary of the election. Rah-e-Sabz summarises 28 events. A human chain was forged in Paris:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joWm9C98ZUc&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

There's video from Berlin:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nc4xeZqaafU&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

And a picture from London:



0730 GMT: After the events of 22 Khordaad yesterday, which seemed to indicate that there are no conclusions --- just an ongoing political battle --- we offer two analyses: Josh Shahryar reviews the day, "What Happened and What It Means", while Scott Lucas takes his eyes from football's World Cup to blow an interim whistle and declares, "Greens 1, Darks 0".

We also offer a musical moment which may or may not have some relevance.