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Thursday
Mar182010

Iran: Reading Mousavi & Karroubi "The Fight Will Continue" (Shahryar)

Josh Shahryar writes for EA:

After the protests on 11 February and a lull over the past month, the two most important opposition figures have spoken yet again to cement their commitment to the movement seeking to topple President Ahmadinejad. While the rhetoric is much the same and clear strategies or plans of action are non-existent in both their speeches, there are several important points which, on closer inspection, speak volumes about the maturing of the movement since its inception.

UPDATED Iran Document: Full Text of Mousavi Speech on “Patience and Perseverance” (15 March)
The Latest from Iran (18 March): Uranium Distractions


The first signal that the Green Movement is alive and well, perhaps going through a process of change, comes from Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech to the Islamic Iran Participation Front:


My feeling for the future is that this movement is irreversible. We will never go back to the position we were in one year ago. I'm very hopeful of the future. We have to transfer patience and hope to people. We have to welcome them to patience and endurance. We will insist on the objectives of the Green Movement until they come to fruition.

In the first part of his speech, Mousavi turns his attention to the reform movement. While he accepts that the movement has faced and continues to face serious challenges, he also declares that the movement will continue. This is a slap in the fact for a government that has pretty much exhausted every tactic in a dictator's book to silence an opposition seeking change. At the same time, it is a reminder to the opposition movement that this change takes years to come about and that giving up now is not an option.

In other words, this is a marathon; not a sprint. Hold your horses, regroup and live to fight another day.

Mousavi then turns his attention to outside observers. While the Iranian Government has been backed repeatedly by China and Russia, Mousavi wants a clear break from the current policy of rebuking the West.
We want to regulate our foreign relations based on national interests, instead of winning so many enemies and leaving not a single friend with every speech. We should not be so adventuristic. Independence is a benediction the Islamic revolution bestowed upon us and we should not lose it. We have some problems with the US and Europe, but we should set our relations based on our national interests, security, safeguarding territorial integrity and national development and growth. Our foreign policy should not be adventurist, nor should it create tensions. We don't have reliable friends to count on in difficult conditions.

In other words, the current policy of the Iranian government is flawed and when the Green Movement succeeds, it will seek to repair ties with the West. With this, Mousavi has put the ball in the West's court while, at the same time, circumventing the mention of China and Russia as friends of the people of Iran.

Finally, Mousavi charters a new course for the Green Movement. It is no longer feasible to just get the educated and urban class to follow the opposition. The movement must look beyond them to find more allies.
If the movement intends to race ahead, it has to spread among people. We have to explain to people that the only option to alleviate economic pressure, reduce soaring divorce and resolve many other problems is to return to the Constitution.

Under the present circumstances, we should not limit our interactions to the elite and we should reach out to other influential groups, including teachers and laborers. We have to explain the ongoing conditions to them in order to win more hearts and minds. We have to have our voice heard by all classes

In other words, if change is slow and time-consuming, what better way to use the duration than to win more allies by working steadily and changing minds among the less affluent classes? Mousavi seems to be alluding to the way Imam Khomeini operated more than three decades ago --- by making alliances and spreading the movement among the populace.

If Mousavi decided not to criticize the government as harshly as the opposition might have expected, Mehdi Karroubi, also speaking to the Islamic Iran Participation Front, took charge and made matters quite clear. He first took apart Ahmadinejad and Co. for criticizing the BBC and alleging that foreign media outlets were helping the Green Movement, asking asked why were there no criticisms against BBC when it was "assisting the Revolution". Karroubi reminded his detractors that Ayatollah Khomeini took advantage of all news agencies and media in his political struggles against the monarchy and no one in the Islamic Republic would accuse him of having foreign ties.

At the end of his speech, Karroubi said what many in the Green Movement were waiting to hear. In his harshest criticism of the system so far, Karroubi claimed that the Islamic Republic which the people voted for in the beginning of the Revolution "is not the Islamic Republic that we now have".

Both statements are more candid and bolder than those made by Karroubi and Mousavi earlier in the crisis. Perhaps the Green Movement is indeed moving into a different direction after 11 February.
Thursday
Mar182010

UPDATED Iran Document: Full Text of Mousavi Speech on "Patience and Perseverance" (15 March)

Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech on Monday to the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, translated by Khordaad 88:

In the name of God, the Compassionate and the Merciful.

I would like to thank you for being present here. We are currently facing an extraordinary situation. It would have made me happy to see our other friends among you as well –-- friends who are currently in prison, such as Mr.Mirdamadi. [Mohsen Mirdamadi, the chairman of IIPF, has now been temporarily released.]

As a political party, you are better informed of the situation that we are currently in. You are [also well] aware of the restrictions and limitations that the Islamic Participation Front faces. In many countries, the activities of [opposition] parties and other groups are welcomed and encouraged since they provides a means for diagnosing national problems and solving them based on collective reasoning.

Political parties and NGOs are the link between the government and the public and they help to alleviate the image of the state as a fearful entity. Additionally, a large number of economic and social activities occur through these units. NGOs and other associations are a benchmark of development and progress in many countries. Even in countries where the rule of law is prevalent, these [social] entities are necessary to carry out various social, political and economic activities and educate the public. [An uneducated], populist society will not experience proper growth.

Similar institutions have existed in our society and they have traceable historical roots. We have a municipal council, which has played an important role in social preservation. For example, one can refer to the texture and structure of a city like Kashan, which consists of diverse districts with similar institutions. These organizations, funded by donation, helped preserve the city and encourage growth. Another example is the existence of various [religious] groups. In a modern society, these institutions have become particularly important and lead to the formation of political organizations.

Our Constitution evidently stresses and concentrates on the right to organize social gatherings and form [social/political] parties and organizations. Some people mistakenly assume that such organizations are gifts awarded to the people by the government. We mistakenly believe that these organizations should be shaped by the government and delivered to the people while this is a social demand and its prevalence results in a healthy society.

The government should not ban these activities. If the government did not place such severe pressure on people and allowed them to be politically active and form organizations --- without fear of prosecution --- then there would be no need to have demonstrations in the streets. Furthermore, if the government did not use such severe violence and trample on people’s rights, then everyone would remain calm and peaceful during those demonstrations. Unfortunately, over the past nine months, the authorities have been extremely violent towards the protesters and have ignored their right --- this has cost the people dearly. They have truly paid a great price in the violence that we have witnessed.

The situation that we face today, along with that of the Islamic Participation Front, are reason enough for an uprising. If the government had attended to the rights and demands of the people, then there would be no need for them to come to the streets and shout hostile slogans. The people are only demanding that their rights be respected and all the aggression of the past nine months has been the result of violence instigated by the government --- violence which has caused the people to suffer greatly.

In the demonstrations of June 15, 2009, people were mindful of their slogans as well as their compatriots’ safety. Nonetheless, tragedy happened despite the caution. What must constantly be reiterated is the sheer number of people who showed up to participate that day—that is something we must not forget. On that day, the atmosphere was joyful, organized, and peaceful and none of the slogans were hostile.

Unfortunately, the tragic incident that occurred towards the end, changed what was supposed to be a peaceful demonstration into a violent one. However, more attention needs to be paid to the style of that demonstration so that people today (as well as future generations) can learn about the very essence of the Green Movement. What needs to be highlighted is the nature and the source of the Green Movement and perpetually writing articles about June 15th can help us do that.

Fortunately, the people have kept the underlying idea and the spirit alive and over the course of the past nine months have given it considerable attention. Despite the bitter events of the last nine months, people have maintained their spirits as they were on day one, and developed the peaceful and civil aspects of the movement. It is true that we have had our ups and downs, but these are necessary features and they should be treated with vigilance.

Opponents of the movement have attempted to accuse its leaders and thinkers, like members of the Islamic Participation Front, of collusion with places [and groups] that people dislike. There have been different levels of intensity of accusations at different times, but there was [always] pressure. The Islamic Participation Front has been the target of some of the most extreme pressure, and its members have been falsely charged with immorality, which is an accusation that a nation should not accept.

We must not act passively in the face of such insults. We must maintain our balance at every moment that we [are forced to] endure such pressure. I mentioned before, in one of my interviews, that a group used to say that the "Constitutional Revolution" [of the early 20th century in Iran] was to the benefit of the British. In that interview, I responded by quoting Akhond Khorasani, who said: “Whatever we do, it will either benefit the British or the Russians. If that is the case, are we just to sit down and do nothing?” The answer is obviously "no".

We must strategize in a way that is right [and to our benefit] and stop getting distracted by such accusations. We must not act as if we are benefiting one or harming another. We must look to our own [problems] and design our own agendas. We must do what we have to do for ourselves.

One function of these allegations is to make us passive and indifferent; the other is to distance us from the people in a way that ruins the trust and optimism they have [placed] in us. We must not be indifferent and passive towards such issues, insults and analysis.

Recently, a magazine linked Mr. Khatami and the Participation Front to a terrorist from the south of Iran and to [US President] Obama. They have made absurd conclusions, obviously with the purpose of trying to prove that people like Mr. Khatami and members of the Participation Front are rooted to foreign powers.

We must stick with our values and avoid falling into their traps while stressing our core principles and our independence. We should not lose our equilibrium or resort to extremes. We want to shape our foreign relations based on our people’s welfare rather than creating thousands of enemies and losing all of our friends with every single speech. We should not be so adventurous.

One of the blessings that the Islamic Revolution has brought us is our independence and we must not lose it. Of course, we have issues with the outside world, with the United States and Europe, but our foreign relations should be shaped in a way to ensure our nation’s interests and our national security and to preserve our territorial integrity and to ensure our country’s growth and development. Our foreign policy should not be stressful and risky so that we lose the chance of having trusted friends and companions in hard conditions. We should not lose our state of balance because we are under pressure. The truth is that in the past few years the accusation of being in related to foreigners has been constantly used as a weapon for repressing and backlashing (withdrawing) people and intellectual forces from social spheres in our country and this should become clear.

We have been informed that those challenging the Green Movement have grossly distorted the truth about post-election events. They have conjured up a fictional tale --- one that they themselves are starting to believe in—and perpetuate this tale incessantly. In it, the government constructs a role for each party and public figure in order to put a spin on the truth and present events in a way that they benefit the government, not in the way that they actually occurred.

But, let us [now] explore and expose each dimension of this fictional tale. They have created a false picture of the Green Movement and, of course, they want to use this artificial representation to justify their position as well as the violence directed at the clergy and the pious. In their fictional tale, they claim that reformist parties and groups are affiliated with foreign powers. Propaganda based on this fictional tale was printed on flyers that were distributed during the 22nd of Bahman demonstration on February 11, 2010.

These so-called strategies are conjured up behind closed doors. What we need to do is demonstrate that this movement is in no way affiliated with foreign powers and is completely self-serving. We need to constantly emphasize that this movement has no qualms with religion, is aligned with the Constitution of the Islamic Republic, and is trying to rekindle the kind, generous, and just rule of Islam. I will stress that the same aspirations that characterize the Green Movement today were very much present during the fight for the Islamic Revolution (1979) and even earlier than that, during the Constitutional Revolution (1905-1911).

This movement is not against Islam, but arises from the people’s religious views as well as their aversion towards oppression. This movement was born from the Constitution --- that grand legacy, which many of our countrymen have sacrificed their lives for.

The Constitution is a interconnected collection of articles that provide a [coherent] meaning if understood together. People have voted for all of these articles. Therefore we should implement all of it together. We should not take advantage of certain section and ignore others. Doing this is against the will of people who voted for the Constitution as whole and will incur significant damage. To keep a official party from holding a convention is against the constitution and is harmful. In this situation , we should not confine ourselves strictly to [the opinions] of the elite. We should move beyond this and pay attention to other leading and influential groups. We should reach out to teachers, laborers, and all others; we should discuss the current issues with them. If we desire the expansion of this righteous movement, we should reach out to all [social] classes. Another important point is paying attention to the religious feelings of people.

We are all religious, but being religious is not enough. The strong propaganda they have been promoting in society has made some doubtful. Sometimes when I interact with religious clerical figures who know me very well, they assume that behind the scenes, something has greatly changed and that I’ve greatly changed. So I have to talk to them and calmly explain. We must open people’s eyes to the to the lies and propaganda.

Relationships with the clergymen must be expanded and strengthened, at least with those who are ready for this relationship. We must familiarize them with the goals of the movement. Some of the clergymen have come in contact with the movement through the street demonstrations, but nevertheless, they must become more familiar with it. This can nullify the fictional tales told of the Green Movement by the administration. These tales might be believed by those who don’t have access to different sources of information.

If the movement is to go on, it must publicize its goals in all sects and groups in the society and in different cities. Economic issues must be explained for the people. It must be elucidated that to address economic issues and social problems such as the high divorce rate, we must return to the Constitution and uphold its principles. People must feel this. They should not think that the Green Movement is only an angry reaction towards a cheated election. We must marry the Green Movement goals with the aspirations of an advanced and prosperous Iran.

In the coming year we must be patient and show endurance. Though absence of friends such as Mr. Mirdamadi is taxing, their presence in the administration’s prisons has had a noteworthy consequence. I believe that imprisonment is no longer an effective tool to fight the Green Movement. I have prayed on many occasions in the past eight to nine months for the administration to free the political prisoners and remove the restrictions on the press, but my preyers went unanswered. Surely people would not refer to the foreign media nearly as much if we didn’t have so many restrictions on our press and media.

If they [the country’s officials] are wise, they will know that the solution to the country’s problems is not through turning society into a military camp, the solution is in lawful freedom. If they hadn’t shut down the newspapers, if they hadn’t created such limitations, if they had left the environment just the smallest bit open for criticism, people would have left the streets empty. If they had given these minimum freedoms, the government and parliament and the overall ruling establishment would have been stronger. Of course, these freedoms create limitations for those in power, but this benefits the country and the ruling establishment, the ruling system will be stronger both in national and international spheres.

It is very sad that the judiciary which was supposed to be independent, and free of outside influence, is now in a condition where the ministry of intelligence and the IRGC [Revolutionary Guards] dictate who to arrest, who to let go, what verdicts to give … In the early days of the revolution, the High Judicial Council was formed so that no one could order the judiciary around, and unfortunately, this situation changed. It’s not that we don’t have compassionate judges, and in fact, those very compassionate and noble judges feel this oppression more, and suffer as a result. There are many compassionate, noble judges in the judiciary, but that’s not how it looks from the outside. I just hope that there is a turn in the direction the current ruling elite are taking the Islamic Republic. And I hope that in the system, there is a turn towards honoring the Constitution in running the country’s affairs, and a free environment is created so that in its shadow, the country’s problems and crises can be resolved.

In regards to the future, I feel that the movement that has begun is irreversible. We will never again return to the conditions that were a year ago. We have to value these change in ideas. I am very hopeful for the future, we must persuade people towards hope and patience, patience meaning faith. This movement wants nothing for itself, it wants freedom and prosperity and progress and better days for people and it will surely achieve these aims. The move after the election, and the election itself made the people aware of their rights, we must invite people to patience and perseverance. We must name and know the coming year as the year of patience and perseverance. A year of perseverance for the green movement to reach its aims.
Thursday
Mar182010

UPDATED Info & Cyber-Battles: US Army v. Wikileaks

UPDATE 18 March: The New York Times has discovered the story, "Pentagon Sees a Threat From Online Muckrakers".



---
For those of us looking for the story behind the story, Wikileaks has been a valuable source since 2007. Its revelations are not limited to one Government or case; rather, in the name of openness, it has been a site for exposure of the misdeeds and manipulations of those in power from China to the US to the United Nations.


In its latest scoop, Wikileaks reveals how the US Government tried to cripple the activities of....Wikileaks. The website summarises a 32-page classified (Secret/No Foreign Dissemination) report from the US Army:

Linking to Wikileaks in Australia? The Fine is A$11,000



The report recommends, “The identification, exposure, termination of employment, criminal prosecution, legal action against current or former insiders, leakers, or whistleblowers could potentially damage or destroy this center of gravity and deter others considering similar actions from using the Wikileaks.org Web site.”....As an odd justificaton for the plan, the report claims that “several foreign countries including China, Israel, North Korea, Russia, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe have denounced or blocked access to the Wikileaks.org website”.

The opening of the report:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
(S//NF) Wikileaks.org, a publicly accessible Internet Web site, represents a potential force protection, counterintelligence, operational security (OPSEC), and information security (INFOSEC) threat to the US Army.


The intentional or unintentional leaking and posting of US Army sensitive or classified information to Wikileaks.org could result in increased threats to DoD [Department of Defense] personnel, equipment, facilities, or installations. The leakage of sensitive and classified DoD information also calls attention to the insider threat, when a person or persons motivated by a particular cause or issue wittingly provides information to domestic or foreign personnel or

organizations to be published by the news media or on the Internet. Such information could be of value to foreign intelligence and security services (FISS), foreign military forces, foreign insurgents, and foreign terrorist groups for collecting information or for planning attacks against US forces, both within the United States and abroad.

(S//NF) The possibility that a current employee or mole within DoD or elsewhere in the US government is providing sensitive information or classified information to Wikileaks.org cannot be ruled out. Wikileaks.org claims that the "leakers"or "whistleblowers" of sensitive or classified DoD documents are former US government employees. These claims are highly suspect, however, since Wikileaks.org states that the anonymity and protection of the leakers or whistleblowers is one of its primary goals. Referencing of leakers using codenames and providing incorrect employment information, employment status, and other contradictory information by Wikileaks.org are most likely rudimentary OPSEC [operational security] measures designed to protect the identity of the current or former insiders who leaked the information. On the other hand, one cannot rule out the possibility that some of the contradictions in describing leakers could be inadvertent OPSEC errors by the authors, contributors, or Wikileaks.org staff personnel with limited experience in protecting the identity of their sources.

(U) The stated intent of the Wikileaks.org Web site is to expose unethical practices, illegal behavior, and wrongdoing within corrupt corporations and oppressive regimes in Asia, the former Soviet bloc, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East. To do so, the developers of the Wikileaks.org Web site want to provide a secure forum to where leakers, contributors, or whistleblowers from any country can anonymously post or send documentation and other

information that exposes corruption or wrongdoing by governments or corporations. The developers believe that the disclosure of sensitive or classified information involving a foreign government or corporation will eventually result in the increased accountability of a democratic, oppressive, or corrupt the government to its citizens.

(S//NF) Anyone can post information to the Wikileaks.org Web site, and there is no editorial review or oversight to verify the accuracy of any information posted to the Web site. Persons accessing the Web site can form their own opinions regarding the accuracy of the information posted, and they are allowed to post comments. This raises the possibility that the Wikileaks.org Web site could be used to post fabricated information; to post misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda; or to conduct perception management and influence operations designed to convey a negative message to those who view or retrieve information from the Web site.

(U) Diverse views exist among private persons, legal experts, advocates for open government and accountability, law enforcement, and government officials in the United States and other countries on the stated goals of Wikileaks.org. Some contend that the leaking and posting of information on Wikileaks.org is constitutionally protected free speech, supports open society and open government initiatives, and serves the greater public good in such a manner that outweighs any illegal acts that arise from the posting of sensitive or classified government or business information. Others believe that the Web site or persons associated with Wikileaks.org will face legal challenges in some countries over privacy issues, revealing sensitive or classified government information, or civil lawsuits for posting information that is wrong, false, slanderous, libelous, or malicious in nature.

For example, the Wikileaks.org Web site in the United States was shutdown on 14 February 2008 for 2 weeks by court order over the publishing of sensitive documents in a case involving charges of money laundering, grand larceny, and tax evasion by the Julius Bare Bank in the Cayman Islands and Switzerland. The court case against Wikileaks.org was dropped by Julius Bare Bank, the US court order was lifted and the Web site was restored in the United States. Efforts by some domestic and foreign personnel and organizations to discredit the Wikileaks.org Web site include allegations that it wittingly allows the posting of uncorroborated information, serves as an instrument of propaganda, and is a front organization of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

(S//NF) The governments of China, Israel, North Korea, Russia, Thailand, Zimbabwe, and several other countries have blocked access to Wikileaks.org-type Web sites, claimed they have the right to investigate and prosecute Wikileaks.org and associated whistleblowers, or insisted they remove false, sensitive, or classified government information, propaganda, or malicious content from the Internet. The governments of China, Israel, and Russia claim the right to remove objectionable content from, block access to, and investigate crimes related to the posting of documents or comments to Web sites such as Wikileaks.org. The governments of these countries most likely have the technical skills to take such action should they choose to do so.

(S//NF) Wikileaks.org uses trust as a center of gravity by assuring insiders, leakers, and whistleblowers who pass information to Wikileaks.org personnel or who post information to the Web site that they will remain anonymous. The identification, exposure, or termination of employment of or legal actions against current or former insiders, leakers, or whistleblowers could damage or destroy this center of gravity and deter others from using Wikileaks.org to make such information public.
Thursday
Mar182010

Afghanistan: Return of the Militias?

Sanjay Kumar writes in The Diplomat:

It’s eight in the morning and Nabi Gaichi, or Commander Nabi as he’s known in the Qalaizal district of Kunduz in northern Afghanistan, is cleaning his Kalashnikov rifle as he discusses plans for the day’s patrolling duties with fellow ‘commanders.’

Gaichi’s 8-year-old daughter, Ashma, brings us cups of tea and thick Afghani naan bread served with lamb meat as the group spends the next half hour discussing ways to expand patrols in the district.

Afghanistan-Pakistan: The Tragedy of Non-Cooperation


Gaichi, 35, is the head of a 145-member strong private militia in Qalaizal—a sleepy town of mud houses interspersed with a few concrete buildings whose inhabitants, until recently, lived in fear of the Taliban.



In the absence of an Afghan Police Force presence in the area (the case in many parts of Afghanistan) Taliban fighters were levying taxes at will and forcing villagers to grow poppies for opium production in their fields. But six months ago, a village doctor dared to defy the Taliban and was killed for his ‘impertinence’. The killing may well have been the final straw for the villagers and prompted its elders to turn to the militia for help.

"I was working in Hairatan (on the border with Uzbekistan) before I joined this militia," Gaichi says. "I got the invitation to lead a militia from some village elders who were being harassed by the Taliban. I was reluctant at first, but felt compelled by the situation."

Read rest of article....
Wednesday
Mar172010

The Latest from Iran (17 March): Celebration

2125 GMT: We Persist. The Committee of Human Rights Reporters, many of whose members have been detaineed, has issued a statement:

The Committee of Human Rights Reporters once again by maintaining the path that it has taken and by supporting other human rights organizations, emphasizes that it will continue its decisive activities in reporting human rights conditions on both national and international levels through collaborations with independent and credible international human rights organizations.

NEW Iran Labour Front: Minimum Wage, “Unprecedent Poverty and Hunger”, and Strikes
NEW Iran Analysis: What Does the Fire Festival Mean?
NEW Latest Iran Video: Two Views of the Fire Festival (16 March)
Iran Document: Mousavi Speech on “Patience and Resistance” (15 March)
Latest Iran Video: The Attack on Karroubi’s House (14 March)
Iran Breaking: Ban on Reformist Political Party
The Latest from Iran (16 March): Fire and Politics


2115 GMT: Karroubi's Big Line. Here's the stinger statement from Mehdi Karroubi as he addressed the (banned) Islamic Iran Participation Front: "Why is it that the justifications of the Shah for his actions were wrong but the very logic and content of his words coming from you is to be considered right?"


1945  GMT: Political Prisoner News. Documentary maker Mohammad Rasoulof, who was arrested in the raid on director Jafar Panahi's house, has been released. Panahi is the only person from the incident who remains in detention.

1915 GMT: Picture of the Day. Mohsen Mirdamadi, the head of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, on his release from detention:



1910 GMT: Economy Watch. Iran has cut the cheap petrol ration by 25% to 60 litres per vehicle per month from 21 March. Currently, each vehicle is allowed a quota of 80 litres of fuel at 10 cents a litre, with any amount needed on top of that priced at 40 cents.

Now is the move part of President Ahmadinejad's subsidies reduction plan or a response to tightening fuel supplies with the prospect of reduced imports? Or both?

1900 GMT: Labour News. We've posted an interview with Jafar Azim Zadeh, the head of the Free Assembly of Iranian Workers, about the minimum wage, inflation, and the prospect of "poverty and hunger" for Iran's labourers.

1745 GMT: Reformist Relay. Once again, prominent opposition figures are putting out a series of statements. There is Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech to the Islamic Iran Participation Front, Mehdi Karroubi's "Let Us Rally" statement (see 1600 GMT), and Mohammad Khatami's address to members of the Islamic associations of Tehran universities.

Khatami insisted that the government "does not have the right to defy the constitution" and declare that its opponents are "adversaries of the regime". He asked the Iranian judiciary, "How is it that baseless accusations against some people are pursued fiercely by the judiciary whilst deviant groups are free to insult and slander any Shiite leader they might dislike?"

Khatami emphasized that the establishment can resolve problems by releasing political prisoners and upholding liberties that are the people's legal right.

1600 GMT: Karroubi Watch. The Facebook site that supports Mir Hossein Mousavi is carrying a statement from Mehdi Karroubi, "Let Us Hold a Rally".

1345 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. The reformist Parleman News declares "One Step Forward" for former President Hashemi Rafsanjani in his political manoeuvres.

1245 GMT: I'm Not Sure You Get It, Dude. At a news conference, Minister of Oil Masoud Mir Kazemi has warned that Tehran will blacklist companies which stop their gasoline exports to the country.

With respect, Mr Kazemi, I think the point here is not that you might blacklist them but that they are blacklisting you (since Iran imports 40 percent of its consumption of gasoline). As Khabar Online, which carries the report, notes, "It's not clear how Iranian government is to punish the companies which cut off gasoline delivery to the country."

1235 GMT: Another Death Sentence. Amidst chatter, some of it from the regime, about capital punishments, the International Committee for Human Rights in Iran claims a confirmed case. Abdolreza Ghanbari, accused of "mohareb" (war against God) for participation in Ashura protests, has been sentenced to death.

1230 GMT: We Will Not Be Silent (2). The wife of Mostafa Tajzadeh. former Deputy Minister of Interior and senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has declared that he "will talk to the people on a convenient occasion". Tajzadeh was released without bail for the Iranian New Year.

1210 GMT: We Will Not Be Silent (1). The Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party has issued a statement: Ahmadinejad has erased freedom and taken the bread from people's tables.

1205 GMT: Etemaad To Re-Open (at a Cost)? Aftab News is reporting that the ban on Etemaad will be lifted after payment of a "bail" (we are confirming whether 100 billion or 100 million toman, which corresponds to either $100 million or $100,000), with the newspaper reappearing in the Iranian New Year.

1025 GMT: Happy New Year, "Rioters". Under the heading of not-very-surprising news, Press TV reports:
Sentences have been handed down to 86 detainees of Tehran's Western-led post-election unrests on charges that include taking part in illegal riots and disrupting public order....
According to the statement, the sentences were issued for charges such as "conspiring against national security, spreading propaganda against the establishment, membership in hostile and anti-Revolutionary groups, taking part in illegal gatherings, and disrupting public order."

0848 GMT: Rafsanjani Watch. A poor attempt at analysis, simplifying a complex politician, in Foreign Policy. The magazine headlines a piece by Genevieve Abdo, a front-line writer on Iranian politics, "Iran's most independent politician finally casts his lot with the hard-liners."

There's a huge difference between giving support to the Supreme Leader, which Rafsanjani has clearly set out in recent months, and giving support to the Government. Abdo's evidence for the latter consists of this: Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad were both at a celebration on 4 March of the birthday of the Prophet Muhammad.

Hmm.... Might want to set this against the steady sniping at the Government from Rafsanjani allies like Hassan Rohani. And it might be useful to speak with someone in the opposition before telling readers:
The green movement is taking Rafsanjani's return to the fold as a setback. With his independent voice now subsumed into the hard-line camp, there is no doubt this development will lead him to curtail his recent criticism of Ahmadinejad and Khamenei.

(Normally I wouldn't put such a poor analysis in the updates. But Foreign Policy is a front-line website for the Washington networks, so assertions like these can be read by US officials and journalists as the "hot intelligence" on Iran.)

0844 GMT: Mousavi's New Year. Mir Hossein Mousavi has already set down a marker for "a year of patience and steadfastness" in his speech to the Islamic Iran Participation Front. Now he and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, announce they are putting out a video message, addressed to the people of Iran, for the Nowruz (the Iranian New Year).

0840 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An activist reports that Saeed Nourmohammadi, a leading member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, has been released on bail.

0830 GMT: We begin this morning with a look at last night's Chahrshanbeh Suri (Fire Festival) celebrations. There are two videos with different visions of the evening, and we have an analysis: "Sometimes a celebration should be considered first as a celebration....Sometimes a celebration should then be considered political."