Afghanistan Analysis: Karzai 2, Obama 1 (Cole)

Juan Cole writes in light of Afghan President Hamid Karzai's visit to Afghanistan:

Afghanistan is already beginning to defeat Barack Obama.

He came into office last year clearly hoping to find a way to move Hamid Karzai, the mercurial and ineffectual president of Afghanistan who only controls some 30 percent of the country, out of office in favor of someone more capable as a leader. Perhaps he had in mind the way the US allied with Kurds, Sunnis, and other Shiites to dump Ibrahim Jaafari as prime minister of Iraq in the first months of 2006.

Afghanistan: Revealing the US “Black Site” Prison at Bagram (Fisher)

But Karzai fought back with all his considerable local resources, arranging to steal the presidential election of August 2009 and then to behave so extravagantly that he discouraged his only major challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, from even mounting a run-off challenge. The breathtaking boldness of this blatant set of slaps in the face of Washington and other international patrons astonished UN diplomat and former US ambassador Peter Galbraith, who went public with his criticisms of Karzai and got himself summarily fired.


Even as Karzai was stealing the election and shoring up his power by depending on his brothers and on cronies (who have been accused by some high US officials of being a drug cartel), he was continuing to reach out behind the scenes to his primary internal enemies, the old-time mujahidin (Gulbadin Hikmatyar’s Islamic Party militia in the Pashtun East and the Haqqani Network of Jalal and Siraj Haqqani) and the Old Taliban of Mulla Omar. The US was opposed to such contacts, and some US military personnel saw Karzai’s negotiations with people who were actively attempting to kill American soldiers little short of treasonous.

In contrast, Obama’s plan for Afghanistan was a massive counter-insurgency effort, including the adding of tens of thousands of new troops and hard war fighting aimed at taking and holding vast swathes of territory. It is an audacious plan and its chance of success is about 10%. It is more or less opposed by Karzai, who expressed himself lukewarm about the first major demonstration project in Marjah, the success of which is still questionable.

Obama had tried and failed to dislodge Karzai by disparaging him, had opposed Karzai’s negotiations with insurgents, and had imposed on the reluctant Karzai and enormous new military occupation of his own power base in the Pashtun West.

Relations got so bad that a few weeks ago Karzai threatened to go over to to the Taliban.

This week in Washington, Obama finally backed down. He feted Karzai and made sure he felt wanted. He acquiesced in Kabul’s outreach to the insurgents. He reconfigured his troop escalation as helpful pressure on the guerrillas to force them to the negotiating table.

Karzai mostly won, though he hadn’t gotten the hated counter-insurgency plan cancelled and could still see his beloved Qandahar invaded and occupied by the white Christian Westerners this summer. Still, Obama’s own plans for Afghanistan lay in tatters as he is forced to face the harsh limits on US capacity to shape a huge, craggy, tribal country half way around the world.

Radio Azadi reports in Dari Persian that Afghanistan’s independent human rights commission was disappointed that the communiques coming out of the White House and Karzai’s office about the meetings in Washington did not foreground the welfare of the actual people of Afghanistan, or human rights in that country, or improvements in the position of women.

PBS Newshour has video which is, as usual, professional. But the title, “Obama, Karzai Renew Pledge to Continue Fight Against Al-Qaida in Afghanistan,” drives me crazy. There is no al-Qaeda to speak of in Afghanistan and that organization is irrelevant to the social and political struggles in that country. Obama himself continues to frame whatever it is he thinks he is doing in that country in those terms, which does not inspire confidence. But why would among our best foreign affairs programs fall for that rhetoric?

Israel Analysis: The Expansion of Construction in Jerusalem

Although Israel has not approved any new housing plans, the building of hundreds of apartments that were previously approved has proceeded since the crisis over Ramat Shlomo erupted in March.

Cabinet Secretary Zvi Hauser said on Monday that construction of new housing for Jews in east Jerusalem will press forward. He told Army Radio:

Middle East Inside Line: First Indirect Israel-Palestine Talks; Israel Warns Iran; West Jerusalem’s Economic Win

Building is expected to begin soon in Har Homa....and Neve Yaakov, where (construction) bids have been issued. Building in Jerusalem is continuing according to its regular pace.

Israeli Cabinet Minister Dan Meridor said Israel could not accept a "discriminatory" policy that barred Jews from living in certain parts of the city. But he said "the policy of the government will try to be wise".

On Tuesday, in a telephone conversation with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, President Barack Obama pledged his commitment to the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state and vowed to hold both Israel and the Palestinians accountable if either side tookk actions that "undermine trust" during U.S.-mediated talks.

Public Security Minister Yitzhak Aharonovitch on Wednesday said that Israel will demolish Palestinian homes in East Jerusalem in the coming days despite the renewal of indirect peace talks and added, "As of right now, there is no directive for police not to implement the demolition orders."

In a speech to mark Jerusalem Day, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue Israeli construction across the city. He said, "The struggle for Jerusalem is a struggle for truth." Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat added:

We will continue to build in all parts of Jerusalem. The promise of a future Jerusalem with a Jewish majority is a strategic mission for all of us.

Later, Netanyahu said Israel plans to prioritize Jerusalem over other areas. He continued:

Jerusalem" and its alternative Hebrew name "Zion" appear 850 times in the Old Testament, Judaism's core canon. As to how many times Jerusalem is mentioned in the holy scriptures of other faiths, I recommend you check.

There is no undercutting, nor do I intend to undercut, the connection of others to Jerusalem. But I do confront the attempt to undercut and warp or obfuscate the unique connection that we, the people of Israel, have to the capital of Israel.

Afghanistan Analysis: Is the "Kandahar Offensive" Crumbling? (Porter)

Gareth Porter writes for Inter Press Service:

Although Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal's plan for wresting the Afghan provinces of Helmand and Kandahar from the Taliban is still in its early stages of implementation, there are already signs that setbacks and obstacles it has encountered have raised serious doubts among top military officials in Washington about whether the plan is going to work.

Scepticism about McChrystal's ambitious aims was implicit in the way the Pentagon report on the war issued Apr. 26 assessed the progress of the campaign in Marja. Now, as Afghan President Hamid Karzai begins a four-day round of consultations with President Barack Obama and other senior U.S. officials here this week, the new report has been given even more pointed expression by an unnamed "senior military official" quoted in a column in The Washington Post Sunday by David Ignatius.

Afghanistan Analysis: Does General McChrystal Have Any Idea of What is Happening? (Mull)

The senior military officer criticised McChrystal's announcement in February that he had "a government in a box, ready to roll in" for the Marja campaign, for having created "an expectation of rapidity and efficiency that doesn't exist now", according to Ignatius.


The same military official is also quoted as pointing out that parts of Helmand that were supposed to have been cleared by the offensive in February and March are in fact still under Taliban control and that Afghan government performance in the wake of the offensive had been disappointing, according to Ignatius.

The outlook at the Pentagon and the White House on the nascent Kandahar offensive is also pessimistic, judging from the comment to Ignatius by an unnamed "senior administration official". The official told Ignatius the operation is "still a work in progress", observing that McChrystal's command was still trying to decide how much of the local government the military could "salvage" and how much "you have to rebuild".

That is an obvious reference to the dilemma faced by the U.S. military in Kandahar: the entire government structure is controlled by Ahmed Wali Karzai, the much-despised brother of President Hamid Karzai. The U.S.-supported provincial governor now being counted on to introduce governance reforms, on the other hand, is generally regarded by Kandaharis as powerless, as Jonathan Partlow reported in The Washington Post Apr. 29.

These negative comments on the campaign in Helmand and Kandahar by senior Washington officials pointing to problems with McChrystal's plan suggest that even more serious concerns are being expressed behind the scenes.

The Pentagon report on the war betrays similar doubts about the strategy being carried out by McChrystal, both by what it highlights and what it fails to say. Damning with faint praise, the report says the offensive waged in the Marja region and elsewhere in Helmand achieved only "some success in clearing insurgents from their strongholds".

Paralleling the quote from the "senior military official", the report says progress in "governance and development" in has been "slow". Demonstrating that the Afghan government could provide "governance and development" had been announced as the central aim of the offensive in Marja.

The section of the Pentagon report on the state of the insurgency goes even further toward declaring that the McChrystal plan had failed to achieve a central objective, concluding that the Taliban strategy for countering the offensive "has proven effective in slowing the spread of governance and development".

The key finding is that the Taliban have "reinfiltrated the cleared areas" of Helmand and "dissuaded locals from meeting with the Afghan government" by executing some who had initially collaborated.

The overall negative tone of the analysis of what happened in Helmand appears to reflect a decision by Pentagon officials to withhold its vote of confidence in the McChrystal war plan.

Read rest of article....

Britain's Election LiveBlog: An Interim Assessment "Hung Parliament"

0146 GMT. An Interim Assessment. At the risk of breaking too soon, we are going to shut down for a few hours with the following projection:

1. CONSERVATIVES DO NOT WIN AN OVERALL MAJORITY: While there have been individual Tory successes in grabbing seats beyond their 1st 116 targets --- the magic number for a majority --- they have failed on too many occasions within the initial 116.

Britain’s Election on The Morning After: “Who Here Has a Mandate?”
The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Britain’s Elections

The most important pattern appears to be regional: the Tories are doing well in Wales but having mixed fortunes in the Midlands and near London. And, with rogue exceptions, they are not making inroads on Lib Dem seats.

2. LIB DEMS MAKE NO ADVANCE: All the excitement over a three-party system, raised by the performance of Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg in the candidates' debates, seems to have drained away. The reasons will have to be discerned later --- my own suspicion is that the Fear Factor of a "hung Parliament" drove voters away in the final days (even though, ironically, we are likely to get that hung Parliament) --- but the Liberal Democrats, with a few exceptions, will hold what they have but gain little more.

3. LABOUR FACES A POLITICAL CHOICE: GO FOR THE COALITION? Labour appears to have held enough seats in the face of the Conservative onslaught to claim, as the British Constitution allows, the first attempt at a coalition. But can they do so with a weakened Gordon Brown and a prospective Liberal Democrat partner that appears less than politically strong in the face of tonight's results?


0155 GMT: Birmingham Edgbaston, which was supposed to declared almost 2 1/2 hours ago, is in a recount.

The Conservatives take Broxtowe in Nottinghamshire (target #42) by a scant 389 votes over Labour.

0145 GMT: The Liberal Democrats have taken Eastbourne (target #6) from the Conservatives, but the Tories have taken Harrogate (target #153) from the Lib Dems.

0140 GMT: Another blow to the Conservatives in Scotland. They have failed to take Perth (target #30).

And the Tories have not taken Eastleigh, held by the Liberal Democrats' Shadow Home Secretary Chris Huhne. The seat was #11 on the target list.

0130 GMT: The Conservatives have taken Tamworth (target #52) and Chester (target #15) from Labour.

The Tories, however, have not taken Telford (target #141). And I failed to note earlier that Angus in Scotland, held by the Scottish National Party, was target #39.

0125 GMT: The Conservatives have taken Nuneaton (target #85) from Labour with a majority of more than 2000. And the Tories have taken Basildon South (target #31) from Labour with an edge of almost 6000 on a swing of 7.5%.

However, the Tories have failed to take Bolton Northeast (target #94) in northwestern England, with a swing of only just over 1%.


0119 GMT: Vale of Glamorgan in Wales (Conservative target #32) declares.

Conservatives take the seat from Labour.

In an even bigger result, the Conservatives have overturned a 7000+ Lib Dem majority in Montgomeryshire in Wales. The seat was only #210 on the Tory list. Personal factors may have played a part: it was held by Lembit Opik, a politician known as much for unorthodox views and celebrity associations as for policies.

0115 GMT: The Conservatives have taken Aberconwy in Wales (target #5) from Labour.

0113 GMT: The prospect of the British National Party, noted for its views on race and ethnicity, taking its first seat in Parliament has receded. The BNP leader, Nick Griffin, is sayiing that he would be pleased to finish second in Barking.

0112 GMT: More holds for Labour (Glasgow Central, Airdrie, Cumbernauld, Livingston, Dunfermline, and Inverclyde in Scotland, Barnsley Central in Yorkshire, Hull West on Humberside, Bishop Auckland), Scottish Nationalist (Dundee East), and Conservative (Dorset West, Norfolk South, Hertford, Worcestershire Mid).

0107 GMT: Labour have taken back Glasgow East from the Scottish National Party. The seat had been a Labour stronghold but was lost in a by-election soon after Gordon Brown became Prime Minister.

0105 GMT: There is a recount at Broxtowe in Nottinghamshire (Conservative target #42).

0102 GMT: Exeter (Conservative target #176) declares. The seat is currently held by a Labour Minister, Ben Bradshaw.

Labour hold with a majority of almost 3000.

0100 GMT: Holds for Labour (Llanelli in Wales; Coatbridge), Conservative (Canterbury, Staffordshire South), and Scottish Nationalist Party (Angus).

0056 GMT: Labour have taken back Blaenau Gwent in Wales from an Independent.

Conservatives have held Newbury (Lib Dem target #20) with a 7.0% swing.

0053 GMT: Conservativres hold Sevenoaks near London and Christchurch on the south coast; Labour hold Wrexham in Wales and Gedling in the East Midlands.

The Gedling result is another blow to the Tories' hope of a majority. It was target #91.

0047 GMT: Conservatives hold Guildford, Labour hold Glenrothes in Scotland.

The Guildford result is significant, as it was the #3 turnout for the Lib Dems. The Tories turned a narrow majority into a sizable one with a 6.5% swing.

0043 GMT: Declaration from Tooting in London. This is Conservative target #112 (close to their borderline for an absolute majority).

Conservatives 19,514, Labour 22,038. Labour hold.

Sadiq Khan, a Transport Minister, gained 1% while the Tories gained 8% and the Lib Dems lost 5%. That feels to me like tactical voting to keep the Conservatives out, and it's also notable that the turnout of 69% was up 10% over 2005.

0039 GMT: Labour have held Islwyn in Wales.

0036 GMT: Brown still speaking, as the Conservatives take Battersea from Labour.

That's an essential gain for the Tories, as it was their #4 target. Labour had less than 1% edge in 2005; the Conservatives easily overturned that and won by 12%.

0034 GMT: Well, Gordon Brown held his seat.

More significantly, Labour did hold City of Durham with a sustained majority of 3000.

0030 GMT: Declaration from City of Durham. Labour had a majority of 3000; this is Lib Dem target #23.

Labour 20,496 (and here BBC cuts away to Gordon Brown's count in Kirkcaldy in Scotland!)....

0029 GMT: The Lib Dems have held East Fife in Scotland.

0027 GMT: The Turned-Away Voters. In Hackney in London, two Labour candidates, Diane Abbott and Meg Hillier, have submitted an official complaint about people refused entry into polling stations. More than 50 people allegedly were denied the vote after waiting for 45 minutes.

0023 GMT: Labour have held Sedgefield (Tony Blair's old constituency) in northeast England and Ynys Mon in Wales.

0021 GMT: Labour have held East Kilbride, Motherwell, and Hamilton West in Scotland and Vale of Clwyd in Wales.

0016 GMT: An Independent candidate has taken North Down in Northern Ireland. Lady Hermon refused to stand as a Conservative-allied candidate for the Unionists and increased her majority from 5000 to nearly 15,000.

0014 GMT: Conservatives hold Putney in southwest London. Which is no surprise whatsoever.

0010 GMT: The Torbay count is imminent. It's #54 on the Conservative list and is held by the Liberal Democrats with a majority of almost 3000.

Labour 3231, Lib Dem 23,126, Conservative 19,048. Lib Dems hold and that's a setback for the Conservatives. Indeed, they increased their majority with a 1.1% swing.

0009 GMT. Democratic Unionists hold Upper Bann in Northern Ireland. Labour hold Easington.

0007 GMT. Grasping. The normally excellent David Dimbleby tries to make news out of a single result (Kingswood): "We now be looking at an overall Conservative majority."

0003 GMT: First Conservative Gain. The Tories have taken Kingswood in Gloucestershire with a 9.4% swing from Labour.

The seat was relatively low on the Conservative target list at #131 (the Tories need to take 116 seats to claim a majority).

Funny, how the first major tremor of the night snuck past the media --- everyone was expecting it to come in Birmingham Edgbaston.

2359 GMT: The First Shift of the Night. Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, have gained Arfon from Labour.

2355 GMT: The Liberal Democrats have held Thornbury and Yate in southwest England. Labour have held Durham North and Darlington in northeast England.

2343 GMT. Turned-Away Voters. This is getting close to the label "scandal" for the media. David Dimbleby and Nick Robinson of the BBC have just taken apart Jenny Watson, the chair of the Electoral Commission, and --- with few results coming in --- anchorwoman Fiona Bruce is pounding away about the footage of "extraordinary scenes".

2341 GMT: Results. Sinn Fein have held West Tyrone in Northern Ireland. The Democratic Unionists (Ian Paisley Jr., the son of the famous Northern Ireland Unionist leader) has held North Antrim.

2338 GMT. BBC "Party Boat" Update. The writer  Armando Ianucci, forced to endure the gaze of Andrew Neil for a couple of minutes and to say something funny, reports back, "That was some form of living hell."

2335 GMT: Turned-Away Voters. Problems now reported in Hackney and Islington South in London, a Liverpool constituency, and other areas.

2330 GMT: Sky is reporting the first gain of the night, with Liberal Democrats taking Edinburgh South from Labour. BBC has not even mentioned this. We're checking.

(Sky have no numbers posted on their website so I have no clue why they are calling this.)

2320 GMT: The result in Birmingham Edgbaston, the first significant marginal expected to declare, is likely to be after 0000 GMT because of high voter turnout.

2308 GMT: The Election Commission has promised a thorough review of the problems with turned-away voters.

2300 GMT: The Iran Parallel? An EA reader writes, "The voting system was a total shambles, Iran-style shambles. Exact same thing happened in Tehran on 12 June."

2258 GMT: Turned-Away Voters. BBC is now reporting that in a marginal seat in Chester (Labour majority 793), more than 600 voters were turned away because electoral lists had allegedly not been updated.

The returning officer in Birmingham has issued a statement, "People have had 15 hours to vote, everyone knows that polling stations close at 10pm, it is clearly marked on polling cards. There have been a couple of polling stations where we’ve had to lock the doors but we have endeavoured to get as many people in as possible and process them."

2255 GMT: Significantly, neither the Conservative politicians on TV or the press release from Conservative Central Office talks of a majority. Instead, it's slogans like "it's a historic result --- the most seats gained by Conservatives in any election since 1931 --- more than Mrs Thatcher in 1979".

2245 GMT: The Turned-Away Voters. This could be a major issue, with David Dimbleby hammering away, "A rum job...pretty chaotic". Reports coming in of stations running out of ballot papers and further confirmation that some stations stayed open while others closed.

Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, is reportedly personally apologising to voters in his Sheffield constituency. Harriet Harman, Labour's Deputy Leader, has said some results "may be challenged".

2240 GMT: Sunderland Central comes in. Despite the efforts of the BBC to big this up --- "a 12.8% percent swing and it goes to the Tories" --- Labour is returned with a margin of more than 6700.

Labour drops 5%, Tories up 5%. But no big deal, even if the Swingometer shook a bit.

BBC analysts are talking a lot of tosh about this --- "One part of Sunderland is different from another part of Sunderland", blah, blah.

The significance is that, because there was a glimmer the Conservatives could take Sunderland Central, Labour probably put in a greater effort than in Sunderland South and Sunderland West and turned out more of its vote. Not much beyond this.

2235 GMT: So a 2nd declaration has come in, this one from Sunderland West: Labour 52.5%, Conservative 21.8%, Lib Dem 17.1%, British National Party 5.1%, UK Independence Party 3.4%.

That's a 11.6% swing from Labour to Conservative, which sounds massively impressive until you realise: when you had almost 60 percent of the vote in the previous election, there's a lot way to swing.

2230 GMT. Tea Break!

2215 GMT. Useless Academic Projection of the Night (1). "Professor Vernon Bogdanor, from Oxford University, tells the BBC that if the swing of 8.4% in Houghton and Sunderland South is repeated across the country we will not have a hung parliament - we will have an outright Conservative victory."

2210 GMT: David Dimbleby, the BBC's iconic anchorman, on the turning away of people as polls closed: "It's a disgrace, isn't it? It's really a disgrace. It's Third World politics and there ought to be an enquiry into it. It's an absolute disgrace."

2208 GMT: Revised Exit Poll. The BBC number-crunchers, doing deeper analysis on the exit polls, have slightly altered the projection: Conservatives 305, Labour 255, Lib Dem 61, Others 29.

2205 GMT: The BBC is reporting that Lewisham in outer London kept open the polls for an extra 30 minutes --- in contrast to Birmingham, Sheffield, and Manchester --- to accommodate queues of voters.

2200 GMT: Interrogating with Nothing. Jeremy Paxman, the BBC's "tough guy" anchorman, is hammering Labour's baby-faced Douglas Alexander with no more than the iconic exit poll. It's on the lines of "You really suck, shouldn't you concede right now?"

As Paxman asks his questions, 0.001538% percent of the results have come in.

2151 GMT. The First Result. Sunderland South, a safe Labour seat, is now declaring: British National Party 1961, Liberal Democrats 5292, UK Independence Party 1022, Conservative 8147, Labour 19,137, Independent Candidate 2462.

Labour holds easily with 50% of the vote. That's a 12% drop in the Labour vote. Tories up 5, Lib Dems down 1, Independents up 7.

Not much to read into this, as it appears a lot of the swing is due to the independent candidate who ran on local issues.

2150 GMT: Big Turnout? First reports, given delays in counts and reports of those turned away at 2100 GMT (BBC is adding Manchester to Sheffield and Birmingham), indicates a large voter turnout today.

2145 GMT: BBC Bluster. Jeremy Vine, seizing an opportunity to show off the BBC's new Swingometer, is talking absolute pants (that's an academic term).

2138 GMT: Just to Complicate Matters. News is coming in that "hundreds" of people have been unable to vote in Sheffield constituencies, as they were still standing in queues when the polls closed at 2100 GMT. Police have been called in to disperse them, and the prospect of a legal challenge --- if there is a close result in any of the affected constituencies --- may emerge.

(EA's Mike Dunn has just reported that police have also been called to a polling station in Birmingham.)

2130 GMT: Bring on the Lib-Lab Coalition. Labour's Peter Mandelson has now followed Harriet Harman in saying that "the sitting government" has the first go at forming a coalition if there is no overall majority. And he also has indicated, in a gesture to the Liberal Democrats, that electoral reform is "essential".

2123 GMT: I don't want to be too dismissive but the vaunted exit poll is based on 17,607 interviews in 130 polling stations. That's polling stations, not constituencies. And there are 650 constituencies, which means 520 didn't even get a sniff of a pollster.

Start from scratch.

2118 GMT: I think ITV, given the lighting on their "reaction set", intend to conduct a seance.

2114 GMT: My 1st Good Lord of the Evening. Good Lord, how many words will have to die in interminable sentences about the possible meaning/lack of meaning/wannabe-meaning of the exit poll?

CNN, bless 'em, have either figured out that this blather is useless or is so far behind that they are talking about this afternoon's plane crash that injured the former leader of the UK Independence Party (1915 GMT).

2109 GMT: The Sunderland Fun Run. There is a curious and cute tradition here of constituencies racing to be the first to return a result. Sunderland South, the hot favourite, has been practicing all year. Cars with ballot boxes are given exemptions to go through red lights, and the BBC has curious and cute shots of young campaign workers doing a Jesse Owens (or, as this is Britain, Linford Christie) to get the boxes to the returning officer.

The goal: a return by 2143 GMT.

2105 GMT: Political Shift. First interesting political twist of the evening. Labour's Deputy Leader Harriet Harman: "There is a general feeling we need to change the voting system."

That's a pretty blatant invite to the Liberal Democrats to talk coalition, meeting their call for a revision of Britain's "first past the post" voting.

2101 GMT: Intermission. Now we get 90 minutes of speculation before the first result is declared. Everyone is putting caveats as why exit polls may not wind up being accurate but....

The surprise is that the Liberal Democrats come out so low, losing three seats since 2005. But that in turn turns out to be bad news for the Tories: there is not much lower that the Lib Dems can go in an actual result, so the Conservatives have to hope the Labour vote is inflated in the exit poll to have any shot at a majority.

2100 GMT: The Exit Poll. BBC predicts hung parliament with a Conservative majority. Tories 307, Labour 255, Lib Dems 59, Others 29.

2058 GMT: Here We Go. I don't know about you, but I'm kind of excited. Everybody is showing off their gadgets and counting down....

2054 GMT: I know the BBC means well but sometimes it does try too hard: "The BBC's Jeremy Vine will be coming over all technological using some new-fangled graphics and a revamped swingometer to show you how things are shaping up through the night. He'll even be walking down a virtual Downing Street - paved with marginal seats."

2047 GMT: Fifteen minutes from the exit poll. It will be the only exit poll tonight, as all major broadcasters have agreed to use a single survey.

2045 GMT: The Delayed Vote. The postponement of the ballot in the Thirsk and Malton constituency, caused by the death of the UK Independence Party candidate, will make little difference to the outcome. It's a solid Conservative seat, with the Tories taking almost 52 percent of the vote in 2005.

2035 GMT: A quick shout-out to the good folks at the University of Birmingham student newspaper, Redbrick, who are running a "Polling Night Live".

(Fun Fact: the University of Birmingham Clock Tower, "Old Joe", is taller than Big Ben.)

2015 GMT: Best Marking Time Story. Waiting for the results, the BBC considers, "What Can You NOT Do in a Polling Station?"

Well, you can bring your dog: "Dogs may not yet be entitled to vote but they are allowed to come and watch as long as they don't disrupt the vote....In cases where a voter has two or more dogs and will struggle to control them while casting their ballot, polling station staff may hold the dogs' leads."

You may be able to wear political clothing: "We wouldn't want people coming in with overt political clothing," says [an election organiser] "[But] there's a candidate standing in Westminster as a pirate. And if he comes in to vote in a pirate costume as is likely, we won't turn him away. The same goes for any supporters coming to vote as pirates."

You can vote if you're drunk: "Polling station staff cannot refuse a voter simply because they are drunk or under the influence of drugs."

You can't vote with the loud accompaniment of Jay-Z: "We don't want people blasting music around the place as it would be disruptive," says the election organiser.

2000 GMT: One Hour to Go. In contrast to the US, with an extended lead-in, the networks here only go on-air five minutes before polls close (the exception is Sky News, which is trying to get a jump by starting now but finding precious little to say).

A quick update on those targets (1920 GMT) and their significance: if a net loss of 24 or more seats means Labour (currently 349 seats) loses its majority. However, for the Conservatives (210) to take power outright, they have to win a net 116 seats.

1920 GMT: How to Read an Election. One basic way of following tonight's shift in power, and specifically whether the Conservatives can take a majority in the House of Commons, is to track the "target seats", those requiring the small shift in vote to move to another party.

UK Polling Report has a handy list of the top 200 Conservative and top 100 Liberal Democrat targets (there is no Labour list, as UKPR is projecting no Labour gains and 111 Labour losses tonight).

Channel 4 has a timecheck for some of the most hotly contested seats --- the first key marginal, in Birmingham Edgbaston (home of the University of Birmingham) is expected to declare about 2330 GMT.

1915 GMT: Prelude. Election Day is eerie in Britain up to the close of voting. There's a formal ban on any polling until the first exit polls are released at 2102 GMT, two minutes after the ballot boxes are sealed. The candidates, after the round-the-clock campaigning this week, do no more today than pose for a photo opportunity as they cast their votes (always accompanied by smiling spouses). The mighty BBC pretends that nothing much is happening.

All of this means that there has been more chatter about Greek politics, with the unrest over the austerity measures, than British politics today. Yet the strangeness has been doubled because of the news that has broken through:

The former leader of the UK Independence Party, Nigel Farage, was injured when the biplane in which he was a passenger crashed in Northamptonshire. The plane was circling with a trailing campaign banner when it nose-dived, apparently because the banner became entangled in the tail.

The British National Party, best known for controversial views on race and ethnicity, has apparently been crippled by acrimony. After the permanent website was taken down by a disgruntled member who criticised the leadership (pages are now unavailable), party head Nick Griffin has posted a message on a "temporary website".

1900 GMT (Two Hours to Close of Polls): A bit of nostalgia for EA tonight. We formally launched in November 2008 with an Election LiveBlog, this one of the events that led to a President-elect Obama.

1400 GMT: From our base in the centre of Britain, we'll be bringing readers updates on the most interesting election in Britain in decades.

For starters, we've posted a Basic Guide, explaining the process and the prospects for the three major parties: the ruling Labour Government of Gordon Brown, the Conservatives led by David Cameron, and the Liberal Democrats headed by Nick Clegg. There is also a glance at other parties, such as the Welsh and Scottish Nationalists, the Green Party, the UK Independence Party, and the British National Party, and some tips for those new to the system and for veterans looking  for clues as to whether Britain will have a clear decision on the next Government by tomorrow.

As polls close at 2100 GMT (10 p.m. local time), we'll roll out the sharpest LiveBlog both on the twists and turns of the vote as it comes in and on the high and low points of a British media caught between serious observation and 3-D Swingometer showmanship.

Our reading at this point? The most likely outcome is a "hung Parliament", leading to days and even weeks of maneouvring for a coalition Government or a minority Government depending on bloc-building for every piece of legislation. The one "wild card" that could alter this outcome is a "Fear Factor", pushing voters who are wary of a hung Parliament away from the Liberal Democrats, the long-standing "third party" who are now on equal footing in this campaign. Even then, those last-minute switchers would have to move towards the Conservatives rather than Labour in significant numbers.

So put on the kettle for a cup of tea --- it's going to be a long night.

Middle East Inside line: Israel's Nuclear Problem; Syrian Tensions with US & Israel

Israel's Nuclear Trouble: On Wednesday, at the United Nations conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the ~US, Russia, Britain, France, and China voiced support for making the Middle East a zone free of nuclear arms. There are two messages: one for Iran's nuclear programme and one for Israel's secret nuclear agenda.

"We are committed to a full implementation of the 1995 NPT resolution on the Middle East and we support all ongoing efforts to this end," the five permanent members of the UN Security Council members said in a statement. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukia Amano, in a letter, asked foreign ministers of the IAEA's 151 member states to share views on how to implement a resolution demanding that Israel accede to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and throw its nuclear facilities open to IAEA oversight.

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Syria-U.S. Relations at Odds?: On Monday, the U.S. renewed the six-year-old economic and diplomatic sanctions on Syria. In response Damascus criticized Washington harshly and said that the penalties reinforce hostilities in the region.



Deputy Foreign Minister Faysal Mekdad said the sanctions decision shows Washington has lost its credibility and failed to live up to its promises to Syria. "Obama is not serious about changing the relationship between the U.S. and Arab and Islamic states in the Middle East," Syrian officials said.

Hezbollah-Syria-Israel Triangle: On Tuesday, although there is still no evidence that Scud missiles were transferred to Hezbollah, the Israeli army's head of intelligence research, Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, told the Knesset that the Scud transfer was the "tip of the iceberg", .
"Even today Hezbollah has missiles of all ranges types, including solid-fueled rockets that have a longer range are extremely accurate."

Baidatz then drew the picture of a multiple threat:

Hezbollah's long-range rockets allow them to position launchers deep within Lebanese territory and cover ranges far greater than we aware of in the past.

Hezbollah in 2010 is very different to Hezbollah in 2006 in terms of military capability, which has advanced a great deal. Hezbollah is now regarded by the Syrians as a component of their defense establishment.

Lastly and paradoxically,Baidatz stated that a political settlement with Israel is still a priority for Damascus:

A political settlement with Israel is high on Syria's list of priorities and intelligence shows a will to reach an agreement – but on their terms, meaning a return of the Golan Heights and American involvement.

Military intelligence believes Syria could radically alter its role – but Assad feels that political progress with the current Israel government is impossible and has therefore avoided confidence-building measures.