Iran: While the President's Away.....The Contest Inside Tehran's Establishment

I could be overreading the situation, but I sense nervousness and confusion within the Iranian establishment. That emerged yesterday in the conflicting stories over the objections of key members of Parliament, and specifically Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, to the rule of President Ahmadinejad. Of course, there have been differences between Parliament and Ahmadinejad on the economic issues before the election, let alone after the inauguration. The anger over the economic proposals, especially the way they have been pursued by Ahmadinejad, is rising, with the injection of the accusations not only of mismanagement but of dubious practices and possibly corruption.

The Latest from Iran (24 November): A Larijani-Rafsanjani Alliance?

The reason for that appears to be a political contest behind the economic foreground. Look carefully at the conflicting stories in the same publication, Khabar, yesterday, and here is what emerges. While some members of Parliament are eager to rally round Ahmadinejad and claim that the dispute is being whipped up by outside forces, Larijani's criticism moves from the battle over subsidies and taxes to the manner in which Ahmadinejad is wielding authority. Dictator" is a pretty strong word, even if the President is not directly named, and Larijani's defense of Hashemi Rafsanjani against the attacks, fed if not led by Ahmadinejad allies, is just as telling.



The catalyst for this may be the collapse of the National Unity Plan. Consider that the Plan, in which Larijani and Rafsanjani both had a hand, would have curbed Ahmadinejad's authority and given both his adversaries roles in the revision of the Iranian system. And consider the drama of this weekend's statement by pro-Government MP Ali Zakani behind the "election may be rigged" headline: the declaration that the intent of the Unity Plan was a Larijani Presidency. Indeed, it may be that Zakani's intention was not to bring the election into question but to claim, albeit in garbled form, that Larijani and Mousavi had put forth the false image of a close election to try and pull out a coup against Ahmadinejad.

No surprise, then, that Larijani has spoken out. No surprise that Hashemi Rafsanjani's office has claimed that Zakani, in his speech, made up the quotes from the former President.

Remember, all of this is happening while the leadership of the Green movement is in a quiet phase. And, while the university demonstrations continue day after day, the intrigues are occurring behind closed doors as well as in speeches beyond the campuses. All of this has developed while Rafsanjani has been on the defensive and quieted, although there are signs that he may now be emerging for a fightback.

Meanwhile, the Revoutionary Guard makes its own moves with military exercises and loud announcements. And the fight over how to handle the "enemy" leads to more arrests and the muddled compromise of prison sentences for the biggest reformist names while letting them free on bail during appeals.

Some EA readers and other observers use the word "implosion" in their projections of the near-future. I don't, preferring "re-alignment". But it is a contested re-alignment, and political swords may soon be drawn.

The Latest on Iran (23 November): Releases, Rumours, and Battles

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The Latest from Iran (22 November): Abtahi Sentenced, Ahmadinejad Scrambles

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2030 GMT: Punishment Going Up. Reports now indicate that Ahmad Zeidabadi, whose sentencing we reported earlier (1620 GMT), received a six-year prison sentence. In addition, he will spend five years in exile in the northeastern city of Gonabad and be banned from civil activities for life. Bail for his freedom while the case is appealed is $500,000.

2025 GMT: Ahmadinejad in Brazil. That's right, it's a second continent today on the I'm a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour (see 0635 GMT), though there is little more than a picture to report.

1925 GMT: More on Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Khabar Online (the online version of the newspaper which either chose to close today in favour of Web publication or which has been suspended by the Government) is schizophrenic over a possible bust-up between the Parliament and the President.

The English-language version goes to great pains to deny tries to curb talk of a rift, with MPs blaming media and anti-Ahmadinejad opposition for the rumours. The Persian-language site, however, highlights a speech by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani warning against "dictatorship" and defending former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.



1645 GMT: We've posted a video of yesterday's demonstration, one in a series of ongoing protests, at Khaje Nasir University.

And it looks like we might be covering a major emerging story of the conflict between Iran's Parliament, specifically Speaker Ali Larijani, and President Ahmadinejad. The first installment has been posted; more to come after we take a break for academic duties.

1620 GMT: Journalist and reformist activist Ahmad Zeidabadi has reportedly been sentenced to five years in prison and released on $350,000 bail while the verdict is appealed.

1535 GMT: Here's Why Obama's Engagement Lives. Skip the headlines in the "mainstream" US press and go to Halifax, Canada, where Washington's officials are urging Iran to "engage" the West.

On the surface, Ellen Tauscher, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security talked tough to the delegates at the security forum, "We would prefer that the Iranian regime follow through on the opportunity to engage....[Tehran] asked for engagement with the United States. It has it. Now what is it going to do? Is it going to stand up and say that they're going to take our deal... or are they going to use some other flimsy excuse to duck."

The overriding point is, however, that Tauscher's comments were based on a continued engagement rather than cut-off of talks with Iran. Why might that be? The security forum's main item for discussion, Afghanistan, is the blunt answer. Iran is the prevailing outside power in western Afghanistan, so it has a place in the future American plans for the country.

So while some table-thumpers at the gathering like former Bush National Security Advisor, Stephen Hadley, hinted that Israel may strike Iran, don't be fooled. The Obama Administration, caught up in its Afghan conundrum, cannot afford renewed hostility with Tehran.

1525 GMT: More Iran-Russia conflict. The tension between Tehran and Moscow, which is a key motive for the Iranian counter-proposal on uranium enrichment, emerged again today. Iran's deputy foreign minister Manouchehr Mohammadi declared, “The problems regarding the Bushehr plant has a technical as well as a political aspect. The Russians… want to launch the plant under certain conditions, but we will not surrender to them."

1255 GMT: Not Big Politics, Just a Baha'i Temple. Appears that Hamshahri was not closed because of a major political move within the Iranian regime but because it included a tourist advertisement showing a Baha'i temple.

1220 GMT: More Bust-Up, Another Paper Banned. Now it's the principlist newspaper Hamshahri which has been banned.

However, an Iranian activist now reports that Hamshahri will be suspended for only a few hours and will likely reappear today.

1050 GMT: A Shot at Larijani? The word is spreading that Khabar, the principlist newspaper close to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has been closed by Government order this morning. I'm sensing a real bust-up between Larijani and the allies of President Ahmadinejad (see 0555 GMT and the separate entry on MP Ali Reza Zamani's revelations).

1025 GMT: Rumour of the Day (Denied). On Sunday we noted that questions were being raised about the whereabouts of former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi, unseen in public for two months, with the most provocative rumour that he was in Evin Prison.

Still no verification of those claims, but at least one conservative Iranian website has gone to the trouble of noticing and denying them. Parcham says Mortazavi, now one of Iran's Deputy Prosecutor Generals, is being reclusive because he is waiting to be confirmed as the new division chief handling financial crimes.

0905 GMT: Bluster. Of course, even if the air-defence show is propaganda (see 0810 GMT), that doesn't mean the Revolutionary Guard will do it quietly (especially if, as I think, this is being done to undercut those in the Iranian establishment pushing for a deal or, alternatively, to cover up any impression of "weakness" from such a bargain).

"One step out of line and Israeli warplanes will be completely destroyed," IRGC Air Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh declared. "Even if they escape our sophisticated defense system, they will never see their bases again; because our surface-to-surface missiles are on their marks to target Israeli military bases before the dust settles."

0810 GMT: Shrug. The Washington Post devotes its Iran article this morning to Sunday's air defence exercise, loudly announced by Iran's military --- not surprising, given the supposed drama and the "military warning to Israel" theme in the Post's sub-headline.

We had not even bothered to mention the exercise, which was clearly a propaganda move by Iranian commanders rather than a significant military development. If there is any importance here, it lies in the relationship to the more important story: Iran's uranium enrichment talks with the "West". Is the Revolutionary Guard fighting back against those Iranian leaders who want a deal --- which is still very much on the table, despite the Post's limited knowledge of it --- through their aggressive posturing?

0800 GMT: Yesterday Pedestrian posted a most interesting speech from pro-Government, high-ranking member of Parliament Ali Reza Zamani which is a virtual admission of election fraud. We've put up the blog, as well as our analysis, in a separate entry.

0635 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's I'm a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour has opened in Gambia with talk of expanding investments in industry and agriculture.

0555 GMT: Mohammad Javad Larijani, the high-ranking judiciary official, has stepped beyond his official brief to intervene on the nuclear issue. He declared Sunday, "Iran has "many reasons 2 distrust West, but they have no reason 2 distrust us," and added:

If the West won't sell 20% enriched uranium [for the Tehran medical research reactor], we will produce it ourselves. To produce 20% enriched uranium we must change orientation of centrifuges. We know how & we will do it.

MJ Larijani, joins his brothers, Speaker of Parliament Ali and head of judiciary Sadegh (who also went beyond his designated position to speak out), in criticising the Vienna deal for uranium enrichment. However, the question is left open: are the Larijanis wiling to accept the Iran Government's counter-offer of a "swap" inside the country?

0545 GMT: For the opposition, Sunday's headline event was confirmation of the release of Mohammad Ali Abtahi from more than five months in detention. The photograph of Abtahi and his family is one of the most joyous pictures amdist and despite the post-12 June conflict.

It should not be forgotten that Abtahi was sentenced to six years in jail and is only free on a very high ($700,000) bail while he appeals. Others were also sentenced this weekend, including the journalist Mohammad Atrianfar, although the prison terms are not yet known.

Still, the symbolism and impact of Abtahi's release should be noted. As the Green movement tries to withstand yet more arrests of activists and student leaders and prepares for the 16 Azar (7 December) protests, the freeing of the former Vice President --- accompanied by his promise to resume blogging --- is a welcome boost.

It also may be a sign that there may be a limited fightback within the regime against the power of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. More and more evidence is accumulating, as in journalist Maziar Bahari's account released this weekend, of the Revolutionary Guard's key, perhaps dominant, role in overseeing detentions and eclipsing the power of other agencies like the Ministry of Intelligence and Iran's judiciary. In recent weeks, high-ranking judiciary officials and members of Parliament have been demanding a process to "wrap up" the detentions with formal sentences; since last Tuesday, it seems that the trials and verdicts have accelerated.

Iran: Economics, Missing Money, and Ahmadinejad v. Parliament

We have followed closely the President's contest with Parliament over his economic policies, but an article in Rooz Online indicates that this may be only the tip of the political iceberg. As our updates today are also indicating, there may be a showdown between Ahmadinejad and the Majlis over charges of mismanagement and, implicitly if not explicitly corruption.

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani fired another shot yesterday:

The Majlis can consider judicial action against the administration’s refusal to provide it with reports. We have reminded the administration orally and in writing of the urgency of receiving reports, but unfortunately the reports have not arrived. The Economics Committee can investigate the issue and present its finding to the Majlis so that the necessary judicial steps can be taken to receive the requested reports.

SEE ALSO: The Latest on Iran (23 November): Reading the Signals of Abtahi’s Release

Larijani's rather bureaucratic statement rests upon a potentially explosive Parliamentary committee report on Ahmadinejad's privatisation policies:


“The money that the administration has deposited into the treasury from the proceeds of privatizing public entities is 47.8 percent less than the amount passed in the 2008 budget bill.” The reason for the drop in revenues is hinted at in another passage, criticising the administration for selling off companies without changing their management or structure. The firms are not being bought by private entities but by "quasi-governmental" groups who reap the profits of the change of ownership:

A large portion of the 190 thousand and 114 billion Rials of the purchased stock until October 2009 in the name of privatizing state-owner entities was essentially purchased not by private entities but by entities affiliated with state institutions that are not part of the private sector.

The report notes the distribution of the millions of dollars of stock in large state-owned enterprises to families, with the administration refusing to pay dividends on the stocks and, thus not deposited the proceeds of payments to the national treasury.

Even more provocative, however, is the report's citation of two cases involving companies in which the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has a significant interest: the sale of the Anguran mine, the largest lead mine in the Middle East, and the recent sale of 51 percent of the Iranian Telecommunication Organization’s stock to the “Tose’e Etemad Mobin” corporation .

Iran Revelation: Pro-Government MP Admits Election Was Manipulated

The Latest on Iran (23 November): Reading the Signals of Abtahi’s Release

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Yesterday, I noticed this entry in the blog of Pedestrian, Sidewalk Lyrics:

This has got to be one of the most important pieces of – official state – news to get out after the election.

Ali Reza Zakani, a hardline, pro-government MP and a member of Parliament’s election committee, in a speech he gave at Imam Sadegh University has said, that based on two polls the day before the election by both the Interior Minister and the Ministry of Intelligence, the results would be close between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad. According to the Supreme National Security Council's reports the day before the election, the same results were predicted.

I had noted the Zakani statement in our updates but my translation was not strong to bring out the analysis offered by Pedestrian. He adds, from Zakani's speech, the evidence of Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei that votes were manipulated through "ballot-stuffing" in the last five hours of the day.

And there is this: "In the statement released by the six-member Parliamentary committee, the lines congratulating Ahmadinejad were crossed out and this was done by “a source close to the speaker of parliament” [Ali Larijani] who stated that “fraud in the election” had taken place.

Beyond the election, here's a bonus revelation which indicates why the National Unity Plan has been stalled if not demolished and points to the deep split in the conservative/principlist movement between those who back the Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, and those who oppose him:

---

Pedestrian's summary

On the committee’s tasks:

The committee consisted of me, Katouzian, Naderan, Abbaspour, Aboutorrabi and Kazem Jalali. We met with all three candidates. On the Tuesday following the election, we met with Mir Hossein Mousavi for one and half hours and Mousavi had nothing special to say.

Rafsanjani’s opinion was a council other than the Guardian Council

A day after meeting with Mousavi, we went to meet with Rafsanjani. Rafsanjani stressed: “Mousavi did not give you all his arguments, he hid them from you. Because the day after the election, Khatami, Mousavi and Seyed Hassan [Khomeini] called me and came to my office.” Rafsanjani said that Mousavi’s request was another election and he also pointed out that he had reminded them [Mousavi and Khatami] to stick to the laws. He [Rafsanjani] also had a council other than the Guardian Council in mind to investigate the allegations.

Rafsanjani said that society has changed and that students are now at the forefront as opposed to the clerics. We can’t get these 3.5 million people to go home, we should meet their demands ourselves.

Regarding Rafsanjani’s letter to the Supreme Leader:

[A few days before the election, Rafsanjani wrote a letter to the Leader in which he warned of "forces" who wanted to create chaos in the election.]

Rafsanjani said that he had first sent the letter in private but because the Leader did not respond, he went public with it.

A few weeks before the election they [Mousavi camp] had found out that they would not succeed in the election, so they had planned to hit the streets and to slowly take away the leader’s powers. They have been working on this since the 1980s to slowly form a core outside the country, and they were even successful at bringing people like Nategh Nouri [Khatami's main rival in the 1997 presidential election] to their side.

Zakani referred to the Unity Plan brought forth by Nategh Nouri and said, “They wanted to make Larijani president and it’s interesting that even Rafsanjani came out and said that the unity plan is not my plan. It was Larijani and Nategh Nouri’s.”

Overall this faction used all its capacities and used the online world to the best of its advantage. After the sixth parliament [when all the reformist MPs were banned from running again] the reformists reached the conclusion that their agendas would go nowhere, so they organized well throughout the years and we saw that even groups of 20 to 30 hooligans were organized and were able to create chaos.

The government polls showed that the election would go to a second round

All the polls, even the ones conducted by the university showed that Ahmadinejad would win. Then, on the days before the election, on June 10th and June 11th, polls by the interior ministry and ministry of intelligence and also the Supreme Security Council indicated that voting would go to a second round.

After the elections, we understood that those forces which planned to create chaos even had members in the ministries.

Rezaie said that he would follow his complaints in a lawful manner

In a meeting we had with Rafsanjani, he said that Rezaie believed 32 million votes were cast in this election and that the remaining 8 million votes were fraudulent. He said that up to 5 p.m. on election day, 17 million votes were cast and it was impossible to have another 21 million votes in 5 hours [voting ended at 10 p.m.].

Later on representatives for all four candidates had a meeting with the Leader and criticized the process in the harshest ways.

We were willing to count all the boxes

Referring to the committee’s meeting with Karroubi: Karroubi also made claims of fraud and he said that last time [in 2005], he had 3 to 4 million votes and this had decreased to 300,000. His allegation was that in some voting center in a town like Bojnourd, he’d had 200 votes [in a box] before, and he had that this time too. But in the remaining 700 boxes in that town, he’d had a total of 400 votes. We told him we’d be willing to count all 700 boxes.

This is how the counting process works: after the counting of votes in each box is complete, the results are written on five sheets and the representatives at that center sign them. One goes inside the box, two go to the interior ministry and the remaining two to the Guardian Council. Therefore, the difference between the Council’s result during counting with that of the interior ministry is not an indicator of anything and we must wait for the final result.

In the committee’s final statement, the congratulatory note to the president was crossed out

The Friday Prayer led by Rafsanjani (17 July)

Rafsanjani claimed that on the day of the Friday prayer, the population was split 50-50 and apparently Larijani was the one to give him this estimate.

The Latest from Iran (22 November): Abtahi Freed on Bail, Ahmadinejad Scrambles

NEW Iran: Maziar Bahari on His 118 Days in Detention
Video and English Text: Mousavi Interview with Kalemeh (21 November)
The Latest from Iran (21 November): Mousavi, Khomeini, and Ahmadinejad

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2125 GMT: Activists on Twitter are reporting the arrest of blogger/journalist Sasan Aghaei.

1940 GMT: Karroubi's Latest Letter. Mehdi Karroubi has written to Iran Prosecutor General Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie and Habib-allah Askaroladi, the secretary general of the conservative Mo'talefe party, posting the letter on his Tagheer website.

The letter is a renewal of Karroubi's campaign for the truth on reports of abuse of detainees, responding to the attempts of Mohseni-Ejeie and Askaroladi to cast doubt on his claims and motives. He repeats his earlier account of meetings with the three-member judiciary panel that was appointed to consider the charges. In particular, he states that, while he raised the case of Saeedeh Pouraghai but warned that it might be false. (The claims that Pouraghai had been raped and killed by security forces are now discounted. Some believe the case was "manufactured" by the regime so it would discredit the opposition when the falsehood emerged.)

Karroubi also challenges Askaroladi's claims that the Green movement is financed by millions of dollars from the US Government and demands that Mousavi and Karroubi "must be dealt with".

1740 GMT: The Visits Begin. Former President Mohammad Khatami has visited Mohammad Ali Abtahi in his home.

1625 GMT: Rumour of Day "Mortazavi in Evin Prison". Norooz claims that Saeed Mortazavi, who was Tehran's Prosecutor General in the early part of the post-election crisis, has been spotted in prison garb at Evin Prison. The website claims that Mortazavi has not been seen in public in two months and raises the possibility that he will disappear via "suicide", just like Kahrizak prison doctor Ramin Pourandarjan. (Norooz also sees parallels with the case of Said Emami, the intelligence operative and deputy minister found dead in his cell a decade ago. He was blamed for a series of murders after his death.)

1610 GMT: Abtahi Freed. The picture of former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi provides happy confirmation of his release on bail after 160 days in detention (see 0735 and1405 GMT).



Abtahi has also posted on his blog. He says he will soon return to updating the blog on a daily basis. He hopes for the freedom of his fellow inmates, especially Abdollah Ramezanzadeh and Mohsen Safai-Farahani, to whom he bade a tearful farewell this morning.

1525 GMT: Economic Pressure. Following up our initial item this morning on the pressures on Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (0735 GMT), Presidential candidate and secretary of the Expediency Council, Mohsen Rezaei , has criticised the President's proposed legislation on subsidies and taxes. “As a result of the new law, the effect of the global economy on the domestic economy will be more than before,” Rezaei wrote to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani.

Rezaei suggested the formation of an independent council of financial experts to study the impact of the bill on the lives of Iranians.

1520 GMT: Today's University Protests. There has been chatter throughout the day of clashes between students and security at Khaje Nasir University, and a short video has been posted of the demonstration at Tehran University.

1505 GMT: More Tehran Signals on the Nuke Deal. Ali Ashar Soltanieh, Iran's Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, has reiterated his comments (see 0955 GMT) about Iran's desire to negotiate an enrichment deal, provided it keeps uranium within the country. “We are ready for talks with a positive approach, but the main issue is a guarantee for the timely supply of fuel for Iran's medical needs." Soltanieh referred to Iran's grievances with France and Russia over delays and failures to fulfil previous contracts: “Considering Iran's lack of confidence towards the West regarding the past nuclear activities, we need to have these guarantees."

1405 GMT: Abtahi Update. Former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was sentenced to a six-year prison term yesterday (see 0735 GMT), has been released on a bail of 700 million tomans (about $700,000) while the sentence is appealed.

1035 GMT: The Election was Most Fair. Really. Fars News offers acres of space to Ali Zakani, a member of the six-member Parliamentary committee that "investigated" the Presidential election, to defend the outcome and the committee's proceedings.

Zakani details meetings with Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohsen Rezaei and with former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. All of this is to establish that the election was fair and to indicate that any "fraud" is on the part of those challenging President Ahmadinejad's legitimacy.

0955 GMT: The Government Wants a Nuclear Deal. Can't be a clearer signal than this:

Iran's ambassador to the UN nuclear watchdog [International Atomic Energy Agency] says over 200 hospitals in the country urgently need higher-enriched uranium. As a timely reminder that obtaining higher-enriched uranium is a matter of great urgency for Iran, Ali-Asghar Soltaniyeh said that the fuel is required for the Tehran nuclear reactor, which is designed to produce radioisotopes used by Iranian hospitals for medical treatment.

He warned that if Iran's proposal to purchase the fuel from abroad falls through, the country would have no choice but to enrich uranium to the required level of 20 percent...."We need the fuel because more than 200 hospitals depend on it."

o935 GMT: A Clerical Putsch? We held off on noting this story, but as a sharp-eyed EA reader has raised it.... Rooz Online summarises reports circulating in Iran:

Following the escalation of protests by Iran’s senior ayatollahs against the regime, some members of the Qom Seminary Teachers Association (the most important organization of clerics affiliated with the regime) are planning to present a new list of “grand ayatollahs” under the supervision of Mohammad Yazdi, Ahmad Jannati and Mesbah Yazdi....

According to rumors, the new list of grand ayatollahs will include people such as Jafar Sobhani, Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, Khoshvaght, and a number of other ayatollahs approved by the regime. Credible reports indicate that prominent grand ayatollahs such as Montazeri and [Bayat] Zanjani will not have a place on the list....[Nor will] Dastgheib.

I still think the key word in the story is "rumors". The significance of the article is that it shows the concern of the regime and its supporters over the ongoing (and possibly escalating) resistance from Qom. A radical change to the list of Grand Ayatollahs, especially when it is clearly based on political rather than religious considerations, is likely to stoke that resistance.

0740 GMT: A depressing end to Saturday for the opposition movement, as Mowj-e-Sabz claimed that former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi has been sentenced to six years in prison. Abtahi, as one of the highest-profile detainees, was seen by the Government as a potential asset for propaganda. His televised "confession" was one of the low-lights of the first Tehran trial, and the regime even tried (briefly) to have Abtahi blog from prison to offset criticisms about the conditions of detainees.

Now it appears that the Government has given up on that use of Abtahi, and it has also decided that the advantage lies in keeping him in jail rather than extending a hand to the reformists through his release.

0735 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has always cut a confident, even cocky figure. And when challenged, he fights back.

So it's no surprise that the President would "go big" with a tour covering five days in five countries: Brazil, Venezuela, and Bolivia in South America and Senega land Gambia in Africa. He can finally project himself as a world leader, having been shut out by almost every head of state in the first three months after the disputed election. He can play on the assured support of Venezuela for Iran's nuclear programme and foreign policy. He can present Iran's expanding influence with the African leg of the trip. And no doubt there will be more than a few words on oil and natural gas, as well as the signing of commercial agreements.

Don't let this fool you, however. Ahmadinejad's travels are also a deliberate distraction from the homefront. For all the questions over the future course of the opposition, for all the "busted flush" of the National Unity Plan, the President has not been able to nail down a secure position.

The photographs of Ahmadinejad's visit to Tabriz are more than symbolic. Whether or not most Iranians support the Green movement, they are not turning out in the 63% claimed by the President in the June vote. The conservative/principlist politicians are rumbling again in Parliament, especially over Ahmadinejad's economic proposals, and the clerics in Qom are discussing and planning.

The President returns from his journey at the end of November. At that point, it will be just over a week to the demonstrations of 16 Azar (7 December).