The Latest on Iran (23 November): Releases, Rumours, and Battles

NEW Iran: Economics, Missing Money, and Ahmadinejad v. Parliament
NEW Latest Iran Video: Protest at Khaje Nasir University (22 November)
NEW Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen: An Introduction to Conflict
NEW Iran Revelation: Pro-Government MP Admits Election Was Manipulated
Iran Video and Text: Maziar Bahari on His 118 Days in Detention
Video and English Text: Mousavi Interview with Kalemeh (21 November)
The Latest from Iran (22 November): Abtahi Sentenced, Ahmadinejad Scrambles

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2030 GMT: Punishment Going Up. Reports now indicate that Ahmad Zeidabadi, whose sentencing we reported earlier (1620 GMT), received a six-year prison sentence. In addition, he will spend five years in exile in the northeastern city of Gonabad and be banned from civil activities for life. Bail for his freedom while the case is appealed is $500,000.

2025 GMT: Ahmadinejad in Brazil. That's right, it's a second continent today on the I'm a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour (see 0635 GMT), though there is little more than a picture to report.

1925 GMT: More on Larijani v. Ahmadinejad. Khabar Online (the online version of the newspaper which either chose to close today in favour of Web publication or which has been suspended by the Government) is schizophrenic over a possible bust-up between the Parliament and the President.

The English-language version goes to great pains to deny tries to curb talk of a rift, with MPs blaming media and anti-Ahmadinejad opposition for the rumours. The Persian-language site, however, highlights a speech by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani warning against "dictatorship" and defending former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.



1645 GMT: We've posted a video of yesterday's demonstration, one in a series of ongoing protests, at Khaje Nasir University.

And it looks like we might be covering a major emerging story of the conflict between Iran's Parliament, specifically Speaker Ali Larijani, and President Ahmadinejad. The first installment has been posted; more to come after we take a break for academic duties.

1620 GMT: Journalist and reformist activist Ahmad Zeidabadi has reportedly been sentenced to five years in prison and released on $350,000 bail while the verdict is appealed.

1535 GMT: Here's Why Obama's Engagement Lives. Skip the headlines in the "mainstream" US press and go to Halifax, Canada, where Washington's officials are urging Iran to "engage" the West.

On the surface, Ellen Tauscher, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security talked tough to the delegates at the security forum, "We would prefer that the Iranian regime follow through on the opportunity to engage....[Tehran] asked for engagement with the United States. It has it. Now what is it going to do? Is it going to stand up and say that they're going to take our deal... or are they going to use some other flimsy excuse to duck."

The overriding point is, however, that Tauscher's comments were based on a continued engagement rather than cut-off of talks with Iran. Why might that be? The security forum's main item for discussion, Afghanistan, is the blunt answer. Iran is the prevailing outside power in western Afghanistan, so it has a place in the future American plans for the country.

So while some table-thumpers at the gathering like former Bush National Security Advisor, Stephen Hadley, hinted that Israel may strike Iran, don't be fooled. The Obama Administration, caught up in its Afghan conundrum, cannot afford renewed hostility with Tehran.

1525 GMT: More Iran-Russia conflict. The tension between Tehran and Moscow, which is a key motive for the Iranian counter-proposal on uranium enrichment, emerged again today. Iran's deputy foreign minister Manouchehr Mohammadi declared, “The problems regarding the Bushehr plant has a technical as well as a political aspect. The Russians… want to launch the plant under certain conditions, but we will not surrender to them."

1255 GMT: Not Big Politics, Just a Baha'i Temple. Appears that Hamshahri was not closed because of a major political move within the Iranian regime but because it included a tourist advertisement showing a Baha'i temple.

1220 GMT: More Bust-Up, Another Paper Banned. Now it's the principlist newspaper Hamshahri which has been banned.

However, an Iranian activist now reports that Hamshahri will be suspended for only a few hours and will likely reappear today.

1050 GMT: A Shot at Larijani? The word is spreading that Khabar, the principlist newspaper close to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has been closed by Government order this morning. I'm sensing a real bust-up between Larijani and the allies of President Ahmadinejad (see 0555 GMT and the separate entry on MP Ali Reza Zamani's revelations).

1025 GMT: Rumour of the Day (Denied). On Sunday we noted that questions were being raised about the whereabouts of former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi, unseen in public for two months, with the most provocative rumour that he was in Evin Prison.

Still no verification of those claims, but at least one conservative Iranian website has gone to the trouble of noticing and denying them. Parcham says Mortazavi, now one of Iran's Deputy Prosecutor Generals, is being reclusive because he is waiting to be confirmed as the new division chief handling financial crimes.

0905 GMT: Bluster. Of course, even if the air-defence show is propaganda (see 0810 GMT), that doesn't mean the Revolutionary Guard will do it quietly (especially if, as I think, this is being done to undercut those in the Iranian establishment pushing for a deal or, alternatively, to cover up any impression of "weakness" from such a bargain).

"One step out of line and Israeli warplanes will be completely destroyed," IRGC Air Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh declared. "Even if they escape our sophisticated defense system, they will never see their bases again; because our surface-to-surface missiles are on their marks to target Israeli military bases before the dust settles."

0810 GMT: Shrug. The Washington Post devotes its Iran article this morning to Sunday's air defence exercise, loudly announced by Iran's military --- not surprising, given the supposed drama and the "military warning to Israel" theme in the Post's sub-headline.

We had not even bothered to mention the exercise, which was clearly a propaganda move by Iranian commanders rather than a significant military development. If there is any importance here, it lies in the relationship to the more important story: Iran's uranium enrichment talks with the "West". Is the Revolutionary Guard fighting back against those Iranian leaders who want a deal --- which is still very much on the table, despite the Post's limited knowledge of it --- through their aggressive posturing?

0800 GMT: Yesterday Pedestrian posted a most interesting speech from pro-Government, high-ranking member of Parliament Ali Reza Zamani which is a virtual admission of election fraud. We've put up the blog, as well as our analysis, in a separate entry.

0635 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's I'm a World Leader, Get Me Out of Tehran tour has opened in Gambia with talk of expanding investments in industry and agriculture.

0555 GMT: Mohammad Javad Larijani, the high-ranking judiciary official, has stepped beyond his official brief to intervene on the nuclear issue. He declared Sunday, "Iran has "many reasons 2 distrust West, but they have no reason 2 distrust us," and added:

If the West won't sell 20% enriched uranium [for the Tehran medical research reactor], we will produce it ourselves. To produce 20% enriched uranium we must change orientation of centrifuges. We know how & we will do it.

MJ Larijani, joins his brothers, Speaker of Parliament Ali and head of judiciary Sadegh (who also went beyond his designated position to speak out), in criticising the Vienna deal for uranium enrichment. However, the question is left open: are the Larijanis wiling to accept the Iran Government's counter-offer of a "swap" inside the country?

0545 GMT: For the opposition, Sunday's headline event was confirmation of the release of Mohammad Ali Abtahi from more than five months in detention. The photograph of Abtahi and his family is one of the most joyous pictures amdist and despite the post-12 June conflict.

It should not be forgotten that Abtahi was sentenced to six years in jail and is only free on a very high ($700,000) bail while he appeals. Others were also sentenced this weekend, including the journalist Mohammad Atrianfar, although the prison terms are not yet known.

Still, the symbolism and impact of Abtahi's release should be noted. As the Green movement tries to withstand yet more arrests of activists and student leaders and prepares for the 16 Azar (7 December) protests, the freeing of the former Vice President --- accompanied by his promise to resume blogging --- is a welcome boost.

It also may be a sign that there may be a limited fightback within the regime against the power of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. More and more evidence is accumulating, as in journalist Maziar Bahari's account released this weekend, of the Revolutionary Guard's key, perhaps dominant, role in overseeing detentions and eclipsing the power of other agencies like the Ministry of Intelligence and Iran's judiciary. In recent weeks, high-ranking judiciary officials and members of Parliament have been demanding a process to "wrap up" the detentions with formal sentences; since last Tuesday, it seems that the trials and verdicts have accelerated.

Latest Iran Video: Protest at Khaje Nasir University (22 November)

Students of the technical faculty of Khaje Nasir University in Tehran protesting against the arrest of two student activists of this university without any clear charges:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BElowJvWVhs[/youtube]

SEE ALSO: The Latest on Iran (23 November): Reading the Signals of Abtahi’s Release

Iran: Economics, Missing Money, and Ahmadinejad v. Parliament

We have followed closely the President's contest with Parliament over his economic policies, but an article in Rooz Online indicates that this may be only the tip of the political iceberg. As our updates today are also indicating, there may be a showdown between Ahmadinejad and the Majlis over charges of mismanagement and, implicitly if not explicitly corruption.

Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani fired another shot yesterday:

The Majlis can consider judicial action against the administration’s refusal to provide it with reports. We have reminded the administration orally and in writing of the urgency of receiving reports, but unfortunately the reports have not arrived. The Economics Committee can investigate the issue and present its finding to the Majlis so that the necessary judicial steps can be taken to receive the requested reports.

SEE ALSO: The Latest on Iran (23 November): Reading the Signals of Abtahi’s Release

Larijani's rather bureaucratic statement rests upon a potentially explosive Parliamentary committee report on Ahmadinejad's privatisation policies:


“The money that the administration has deposited into the treasury from the proceeds of privatizing public entities is 47.8 percent less than the amount passed in the 2008 budget bill.” The reason for the drop in revenues is hinted at in another passage, criticising the administration for selling off companies without changing their management or structure. The firms are not being bought by private entities but by "quasi-governmental" groups who reap the profits of the change of ownership:

A large portion of the 190 thousand and 114 billion Rials of the purchased stock until October 2009 in the name of privatizing state-owner entities was essentially purchased not by private entities but by entities affiliated with state institutions that are not part of the private sector.

The report notes the distribution of the millions of dollars of stock in large state-owned enterprises to families, with the administration refusing to pay dividends on the stocks and, thus not deposited the proceeds of payments to the national treasury.

Even more provocative, however, is the report's citation of two cases involving companies in which the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has a significant interest: the sale of the Anguran mine, the largest lead mine in the Middle East, and the recent sale of 51 percent of the Iranian Telecommunication Organization’s stock to the “Tose’e Etemad Mobin” corporation .

Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen: An Introduction to Conflict

The Latest on Iran (23 November): Reading the Signals of Abtahi’s Release

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The clashes between the Yemeni Government and an insurgency from Houthi Shi'a escalated, both in visibility and intensity, when Saudi forces became involved earlier this month, striking Houthi positions. Most of the media attention is now putting the internal conflict not only into a Saudi context but into a regional arena based on Saudi-Iranian rivalry, given Tehran's support for the Houthi.

Writing for Iran Review, Salimeh Daremi offers an overview of the situation:

Military clashes between government forces of Yemen and al-Houthi Shiites in Saada province are gradually turning into a full-blown, destructive war. Yemen is meanwhile grappling with various crises which reflect wide gaps between the Government of Abdullah Saleh and the opposition in north Yemen as a result of increasing influence of the separatist forces.

Widespread clashes in Saada, which are turning into a full-fledged war, can be very serious for Yemen and ultimately lead to a regional crisis. The ongoing developments in Saada show that both sides are not trying to find another way, but war, to achieve their goals and only believe in use of weapons. The present war in Yemen is not acceptable and the clashing parties should seek other solutions because they have already signed the Doha Agreement and its subsequent obligations.

At the same time, intervention of regional countries in the crisis calls for a regional consensus to reach a final solution and sustainable peace. Six wars, which have broken out between al-Houthi insurgents and the central government since 2004, have proven that foreign interventions are at work to fan the flames of clashes. Explicit intervention of Saudi Arabia in Yemen is a good instance to the point. On the other hand, it seems that Yemeni authorities are trying to attract international support subsequent to intensification of clashes between government forces and al-Houthi Shiites to suppress separatist tendencies.

Yemeni security and military officials have been in talks with the Americans over signing of a joint security agreement which would pave the way for such support. On the other hand, allegations about Tehran’s military and financial support for Shiites in Saada have turned the conflicts into a regional crisis. Although Iran has consistently rejected those allegations, but Arab countries consider Iran a threat to regional security. This viewpoint has its roots in pre-revolution Iran when the country was playing the role of a regional gendarme. Concerns about export of the Islamic Revolution as well as Iran’s support for such groups as Hamas and Hezbollah combined with Iran’s nuclear standoff in recent years are major factors which have sustained that assumption after the victory of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Iranian media do not believe that al-Houthi tribe is any danger to Yemen and sympathize with the Shias and this has given rise to allegations that Iran is militarily and financially supporting Yemeni Shias. At the same time, Iranian authorities have reacted to the allegations by Yemenis officials. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has noted that Iran does not intend to foster tension in any place as this would be against its policies and national interests.

Summarizing the reasons behind the current crisis to foreign intervention is simplistic and other factors including ignoring the rights of the Shias and inattention to the Doha Agreement should be taken into account when analyzing this crisis. It seems that suspicions about Tehran’s role in the uprising cannot be dispelled through official stances taken by the Iranian officials. Some claims raised by Yemen like seizing a ship carrying Iranian arms for al-Houthi insurgents have led analysts to argue that the clashes in Yemen are, in fact, an indirect confrontation between Tehran and Riyadh. No solid proof, however, has been thus far produced by authorities in Sana’a to validate their claims about Iran supporting al-Houthi insurgents.

The root cause of anti-Iranian allegations by Saudi and Yemeni officials should be sought in recent regional developments. Domestic developments in Iran following the June presidential elections, subsequent negotiations between Iran and 5+1 on the Iranian nuclear case and concerns among US allies in the Persian Gulf over a possible reconciliation between Tehran and Washington, the improved situation of Lebanese resistance movement after publication of Goldstone report, Riyadh’s intervention in Lebanon and establishment of a national alliance government in that country are among major regional developments which have given rise to those allegations.

The Real Threat to Iran: The Spies of the Daily Show

Iran Video & Text: Maziar Bahari on His 118 Days in Detention
The Latest on Iran (23 November): Reading the Signals of Abtahi’s Release

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This is so surreal I'm not even sure Jon Stewart and his writers could have made it up. In June, we noted with admiration, sorrow, and irony the five-day package of Jason Jones of The Daily Show from Iran, filmed just before the Presidential election. In one of the episodes, he spoke to three individuals who would be arrested within days of the 12 June vote: Ebrahim Yazdi, who was briefly detained, former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, who was released on bail this weekend after more than five months in prison (although facing a six-year prison sentence), and Iranian-Canadian journalist Maziar Bahari, who was held for almost four months.

This from Bahari's account, published in Newsweek and re-posted on Enduring America (Bahari also discusses the incident in his CNN interview):

I saw the flicker of a laptop monitor under my blindfold. Then I heard someone speaking. It was a recording of another prisoner's confession. "It's not that one," said the second interrogator. "It's the one marked 'Spy in coffee shop.' " Mr. Rosewater fumbled with the computer. The other man stepped in to change the DVD. And then I heard the voice of Jon Stewart on The Daily Show.

Only a few weeks earlier, hundreds of foreign reporters had been allowed into the country in the run-up to the election. Among them was Jason Jones, a "correspondent" for Stewart's satirical news program. Jason interviewed me in a Tehran coffee shop, pretending to be a thick-skulled American. He dressed like some character out of a B movie about mercenaries in the Middle East—with a checkered Palestinian kaffiyeh around his neck and dark sunglasses. The "interview" was very short. Jason asked me why Iran was evil. I answered that Iran was not evil. I added that, as a matter of fact, Iran and America shared many enemies and interests in common. But the interrogators weren't interested in what I was saying. They were fixated on Jason.

"Why is this American dressed like a spy, Mr. Bahari?" asked the new man.

"He is pretending to be a spy. It's part of a comedy show," I answered.

"Tell the truth!" Mr. Rosewater shouted. "What is so funny about sitting in a coffee shop with a kaffiyeh and sunglasses?"

"It's just a joke. Nothing serious. It's stupid." I was getting worried. "I hope you are not suggesting that he is a real spy."

"Can you tell us why an American journalist pretending to be a spy has chosen you to interview?" asked the man with the creases. "We know from your contacts and background that you told them who to interview for their program." The other Iranians interviewed in Jason's report—a former vice president and a former foreign minister—had been ar-rested a week before me as part of the IRGC's sweeping crackdown. "It's just comedy," I said, feeling weak.

"Do you think it's also funny that you say Iran and America have a lot in common?" Mr. Rosewater asked, declaring that he was losing patience with me. He took my left ear in his hand and started to squeeze it as if he were wringing out a lemon. Then he whispered into it. "This kind of behavior will not help you. Many people have rotted in this prison. You can be one of them."