The Latest from Iran (20 November): Manoeuvres in Washington and Tabriz

NEW Iran: The Ahmadinejad Speech in Tabriz (19 November)
NEW Iran: Green Message to Obama "Back Us Instead of Dealing With Ahmadinejad"
Iran: What Happened on Election Night? The Ghalam News Editor’s Account
Iran Nuclear Special: What Tehran’s Latest Offer Means (and Why the West Should Consider It)
Iran’s 16 Azar Video: Greens Fight “The Pirates of the Persian Gulf”
Latest Iran Video: “A Death in Tehran” on Neda Agha Soltan (17 November)
The Latest in Iran (19 November): It’s the Nukes Today

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2225 GMT: Today's UN Condemnation of Iran. The Third (Human Rights) Committee of the United Nations General Assembly has "expresse[d] its deep concern at serious ongoing and recurring human rights violations" in Iran. The non-binding resolution passed 74-48, with 59 abstentions.

The Committee voiced "particular concern at the response of the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran following the Presidential election of 12 June 2009 and the concurrent rise in human rights violations", including "harassment, intimidation and persecution, including by arbitrary arrest, detention or disappearance, of opposition members, journalists and other media representatives, bloggers, lawyers, clerics, human rights defenders, academics, (and) students".

The outcome, the Committee asserted, had been "numerous deaths and injuries" Iwith "forced confessions and abuse of prisoners including ... rape and torture".

2115 GMT: The Brussels Non-Talks and Non-Sanctions. The New York Times has snippets of the statement issued by the delegations of the "5+1" powers after their review of the nuclear talks with Iran (see 1240 GMT):

We are disappointed by the lack of follow-up to the three understandings reached [at Geneva on 1 October]....[Iran has] not responded positively to the I.A.E.A. proposed agreement for the provision of nuclear fuel for its Tehran research reactor...[or] engaged in an intensified dialogue. ....[Iran should] reconsider the opportunity offered by this agreement to meet the humanitarian needs of its people and to engage seriously with us in dialogue and negotiations....[We will meet again soon] to complete our assessment of the situation and to decide on our next steps.

Read this carefully and you'll see that "the meeting...a sign of exasperation with Iran" is issuing a holding statement while the "West" tries to figure out a response to the Iran counter-offer, giving the appearance of stern action when nothing has been or will be decided.

It's good enough to take in The Times, which has seems to have no clue about the Mottaki counter-offer (1315 GMT), Iran's manoeuvres with Russia and Turkey (0945 and 1620 GMT), or even the manoeuvres of the International Atomic Energy Agency (1620 GMT). Thus, its simple depiction of the Iranian position as "rejection".

2020 GMT: Today's Media Stupidity Awards. First, the Gold Medal for Reasoned Argument for Mindless Violence. Step up, editorial writers of The Washington Times: "Get Ready to Bomb Iran: It's the last best chance for peace".

And now the Gold Medal for "Intellectual" Dismissal of The Other Side. It's Mamoun Fandy of the Christian Science Monitor:

Should the West trust Iranian promises? The short answer is "no." But the underlying question is "Why not?"

The answer lies in Iranian belief systems – notably the doctrine of taqiyya, a difficult concept for many non-Muslims to grasp. Taqiyya is the Shiite religious rationale for concealment or dissimulation in political or worldly affairs. At one level it means that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his regime can tell themselves that they are obliged by their faith not to tell the truth.

1955 GMT: More on Student Arrests (see 1410 GMT). Radio Zamaaneh have published summaries of the detentions of student leaders this week. Payvand also has information.

1945 GMT: You Better Watch Out. Back from a break for a debate on climate change and the Copenhagen summit to Iran’s Prosecutor General and former Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, is getting tough with protesters. He warned yesterday on Iranian state television, "The Judiciary is determined to decisively and primitively confront any new unrest [caused] by those against the results of the Presidential Elections of Iran.”

1620 GMT: You Read It Here --- The Iran-Turkey Deal. Mr Smith checks in, and we think he may have an exclusive on the nuclear discussions:

It's interesting to spot smoke signals on the nuclear issue. The meeting of Ahmadinejad and Turkish Foreign Davutoglu meeting in Tabriz makes no sense unless Davutoglu was called in to discuss the nuclear issue, given the frequency of Iranian-Turkish encounters in the past weeks.

And I find El-Baradei's statements in Berlin to be subtly quite important. He said, according to AFP, "We have not received any written response from Iran. What I got...is an oral response, which basically said, 'We need to keep all the material in Iran until we get the fuel.' That to me is a case of extreme mistrust."

This is the gist of what I wrote in my own analysis the other day: mistrust by Iran, low-enriched uranium remaining inside Iran UNTIL fuel arrives. El Baradei's statement cannot be underestimated, as it gives hope to Turkey to be able to broker the deal. Needless to say, this would be the diplomatic coup of the century by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan. It would raise his stature incommensurably and allow him to press on with the politics of the Nabucco energy pipeline.

1500 GMT: Not much fuss about Friday Prayers today, but there's a short clip up on YouTube.

1455 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Move for Legitimacy. We've posted a copy of the President's Thursday speech in Tabriz.

1410 GMT: Cracking Down on the Students. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty summarises a story we've been following for days: "arrests [as] a move by the authorities to prevent students from protesting against the government on December 7".

1315 GMT: The Mottaki Counter-Offer. Just picking up, after prompting from an EA reader, on an important signal from Iran's Foreign Minister. Most of the Western coverage of Iran's "rejection" of the deal on uranium enrichment (rather than consideration of Iran as taking the next step in negotiations) is based on a weak translation of Mottaki's interview with the Iranian Students News Agency. Almost unnoticed was the Foreign Minister's words to the Hindu newspaper:

We believe that with the continuation of the diplomacy going on now, it is possible to reach an agreement and compromise.... The truth of the matter is [the] interaction [of the "5+1" with the Iran proposal] could somehow build confidence among the Iranians.

1255 GMT: Nuke Discussions Still On. Can't be clearer than this. The US position, as outlined in Kabul yesterday:

The U.S. doesn’t consider the Iranian foreign minister’s rejection of a United Nations- brokered proposal to enrich Iran’s uranium overseas to be “the final word,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said.

While disappointing, she said, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki’s Nov. 18 statement won’t yet trigger the “consequences” that the U.S. and other nations on the UN Security Council have threatened.

1240 GMT: The Brussels "5+1" Talks. First (non)-news out of Brussels on discussions amongst representatives of the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China after Wednesday's counter-offer by Iran for a "swap" of uranium. The meeting was of Foreign Ministry/State Department officials below ministerial level --- the US was represented by Undersecretary of State William Burns and Russia by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. The delegates reviewed the situation but made no decisions.

This is unsurprising. Contrary to the partial and inaccurate reports in Western media this morning (see 0725 GMT), Washington has not closed the door on discussions and is not moving aggressively for more sanctions. This meeting most likely considered a response to the Iranian counter-offer --- expect to see signals at the start of next week.

1155 GMT: Mahmoud is Proud of His Election. In his tour of Tabriz, President Ahmadinejad is emphasising that while elections in other countries are "entirely predetermined", the 85 percent participation in Iran's Presidential election in June shows the endpoint of the Islamic Republic's development.

Ahmadinejad also spoke about his economic plans, including subsidy and tax proposals, but it is notable that he --- or at least the Islamic Republic News Agency --- relegate this to a secondary position behind the President's words about an election hed more than five months ago.

0945 GMT: Two Smoke Signals on the Nuclear Deal. Turkish Foreign Ahmet Davutoglu will meet President Ahmadinejad in Tabriz today "to discuss the latest developments in Iran's nuclear case" with a view "to solv[ing] tensions between Iran and the West".

That reads as an effort by Iran to get Turkey's support for the "swap" of uranium inside Iran, rather than sending Tehran's uranium stocks outside the country for enrichment. It should be considered alongside Iran's manoeuvres with Russia: it is being reported that Russian Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko has told the Iranian Ambassador that "Russia will continue its cooperation with Iran".

0900 GMT: We've now posted an analysis of the significance of the mission by Mohsen Makhmalbaf, the campaign spokesman for Mir Hossein Mousavi, to Washington.

0725 GMT: On the surface, a quiet morning and a day that --- for the "Western" media --- will again be dominated by coverage of developments in the nuclear talks.

If last night's advance copies of articles are an indication, expect a distorted piece in The Washington Post claiming an Iranian rejection of the "5+1" proposals, highlighting a tough US response, and ignoring the significance of Wednesday's Iranian counter-offer. (That's distorted on two important counts: Tehran, or at least the Ahmadinejad Government is pushing for a deal and may have gotten some movement from the Supreme Leader to make the counter-offer, and the Obama Administration is far from concluding that the talks are over.)

That means a development which is just as important, if not more so, will be missed. The Wall Street Journal breaks the news of an "unofficial" visit by filmmaker Mohsen Makhmalbaf (pictured left) to Washington. Makhmalbaf, the spokesman for Mir Hossein Mousavi's Presidential campaign, "called for President Barack Obama to increase his public support for Iranian democrats and significantly intensify financial pressure on Tehran's elite military unit, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps".

A disturbing piece of news. Sources are claiming that Iranian security services are sending ominous SMS texts warning against further demonstrations.

Iran: The Ahmadinejad Speech in Tabriz (19 November)

Iran: Green Message to Obama “Back Us Instead of Dealing With Ahmadinejad”
The Latest from Iran (20 November): Manoeuvres in Washington

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From the US Government Open Source Center (and thanks to an EA reader). The full text supposes our reading, put out in updates yesterday and today, that Ahmadinejad is pursuing "engagement" with other countries, especially the US, to bolster his legitimacy while holding up the image that it is Iran which has the superior position in the talks:

In the name of God, the Merciful, the Compassionate (introductory prayers in Arabic). I thank God Almighty, and I am sincerely happy to be visiting Iran's best people in Tabriz and Azarbayjan on a great day. The day when two great human beings, the Lord of the Believers, Ali, peace be upon him, and Her Holiness Zahra, peace be upon her, began their auspicious married lives together, and at a time when rain, the blessing of God, is coming down fast. (People cheer)

Azarbayjan is the land of epic, belief and kindness. Azarbayjan is the land of art, moral values and struggle. (People cheer)
Azarbayjan is the land of devotion, passion and love for the country.

In the last few decades, the people of Tabriz and Azarbayjan have always played a unique, unrivalled, and distinctive role in developing Iran's culture, developing poetry, moral values of this land, art, progress, economy, defending the homeland, fighting tyrants, bullies, and oppressors. (People cheer)

The people of this land are pioneers of the pro-constitution movement, repelling the aggressors and acts of mischief and defending the supreme ideals of the Islamic Revolution. (People cheer)

The world must know that today, independence, territorial integrity, and unparalleled dignity of the people of Iran are mostly indebted to the self-sacrifice, vigilance and passion of the people of Tabriz and Azarbayjan. (People cheer and poetry is recited in praise of Tabriz and Azarbayjan; and how the land smells of flowers).

Blessing of God upon you dear people of this province, people of Tabriz and other towns in East Azarbayjan. Blessing of God upon the valiant, noble, revolutionary, and art-loving people of this province.

My dear ones, I wanted to discuss important issues with you today; issues about the present conditions of Iran, of the region, of the world and things that we must do to construct Iran and (to safeguard) its dignity. However, you have been standing in the rain for hours. It is fall and I am worried (about your health); although, historical experience has shown that the people of Azarbayjan and people of Tabriz will stand by the Islamic revolution even if it rains stones. (People chant slogans)

Let me say a few short sentences and then I will express my thanks to you. God willing, tonight at TV program...(he does not finish his sentence) (preceding words in Turkish) Azarbayjan is awakened and is a base for supporting the revolution. (People chant the same slogan) Well done; let me say just a few sentences.

First, I address foreign powers: open your eyes; this is Tabriz. This is Azarbayjan. In the cold autumnal weather, people have been standing in the rain and the streets are full; the stadium is full. They (people of Tabriz) have come to give you two messages: Their first message is to invite you to follow the path of God, the path of humanity and purity. They want to say enough is enough. You should put an end to committing crimes, to occupations, invasions, and homicide. Follow the path of humanity; the path nations and prophets have followed. Be aware that if you (take note of) the message of the people of Tabriz, which is a message of faith and of divinity and if you (neglect) the invitation of the people of Tabriz and of Iranians, then the powerful hand of nations will throw you out of your glass palaces. (People chant slogans).

The second message is this: The people of Iran are liberal-minded. They are pure and they support peace and friendship. They support constructive international cooperation. They are ready to reform the conditions of the world, to resolve the dilemmas of the human community; they are ready to have constructive cooperation in reforming the economy, culture and politics and in establishing lasting security in the world.

The Iranian nation is a dignified, brave, aspiring and pious nation. This nation is not pursuing aggression, does not have ill intentions, it only wants to obtain its right, its bright future and its legal right. Those (presumably US President Obama) who claim that they want to have constructive interaction must know that if a clear, fundamental and correct change is observed and the Iranian nation sees that they have truly changed their attitude, have given up their aggressive and arrogant behavior, are respecting the right and dignity of the Iranian nation, and by returning the right and wealth of the nation they have honestly stretched a hand of friendship toward Iran, it will accept it. However they should know that if they are pursuing deception and mischief in our region again, the response of our nation will be the same definite response which they gave to the predecessors of these gentlemen.

This was for them, and now something for domestic audiences. My cherished ones, with divine providence, today there are great unprecedented historical opportunities before us the nation of Iran.

We have to make our country reach an optimal point; a point which our nation deserves. All conditions for making a progressive Iran, an affluent Iran, a free Iran and a mighty and influential Iran are ripe. Today, we have to, hand in hand, through solidarity, through unity, through effort and endeavor build Iran.

We have to make Iran reach a supreme position in the fields of science, culture, economy and development. Today, we are in need of solidarity. We are in need of effort and constant unremitting and indefatigable endeavor.

Dear Azarbayjan has always been at the forefront of all fields of endeavor; it has been in a vanguard position for the Iranian nation.

The ill-intentioned and the enemies do not want the tranquillity of our nation, its progress and its dignity.

Today, hand in hand and despite the wishes of the ill-intentioned and the narrow-minded selfish ones, we have to build Iran.
Haji (Mohammad Mojtahed) Shabestari (Friday prayer leader of the province) the honorable representative of the Supreme Leader (Ali Khamene'i) said something, which is quite right. I want to add something to that myself: he submitted that in the great elections that were held in Iran and astonished the world and enhanced Iran's global standing and showed the might of the Iranian nation; here and there, certain people were after undermining this greatness and victory of the nation. His eminence submitted that in Azarbayjan tranquillity, greatness and security and fraternity was in force (during that period).

This is quite right, well done to you. I want to add a phrase to this; the expectation of the nation of Iran for Azarbayjan is yet higher than that. History has shown that if a malevolent person, an adversary, or an aggressor was creating subversion here and there or disrupting Iran's security and undermining its honor; the nation expected the valiant men and women of Azarbayjan to rise and break their bones (Crowds chant approval and hail the president).

At least in the last 400 years, every time and in any corner of the cherished fatherland, a seditious, conspiring, hostile or aggressive person has existed. He has wanted to undermine the prestige, standing and integrity of the Iranian nation - history bears witness that - the children of Azarbayjan have risen up vigilantly and powerfully. They have defeated the enemy in this way.

It is for this reason that the nation of Iran cries out from the bottom of its heart: Yashasun Azarbayjan (Turkish: Long live Azarbayjan).

OK! I do not want to keep you for long. I have to say two or three sentences of gratitude. God-willing, I will say more on TV and it will reach you (I am sure).

My first gratitude is to be extended to (long silence while he speaks to an unidentified person and laughs; then he says: Azari Turkish OK, may be at the end) my first thank you is for all your goodness and graciousness. Today, our Revolution owes a lot to the sacrifices of the people of Azarbayjan and Tabriz.

No one will forget 29 Bahman (18 February 1978, day of uprising in Tabriz against the rule of the former shah); 29 Bhaman 1356 broke the back of arrogance. Also (we won't forget) the Martyrs of the Altar (Reference to a number of clerics who were assassinated while praying), the Great Martyrs (presumably Iranian forces killed in Iran-Iraq war in 1980s) and the martyrs of Ashura Division (another group of war victims). The fighters of this land have always been at the front line of the Iranian nation and with the grace of God, they will remain there.

As a servant of yours, I will sincerely thank you. I also thank you for your heroic participation in the (presidential) elections. The presence of the people of Azarbayjan and their votes in the political atmosphere of the country, in the international arena and in the history of our country has a special significance; it signifies resistance, dignity, honesty and passion. That is why the whole Iranian nation believes this beautiful slogan of you, which comes from the bottom of your hearts: (Preceding words in Turkish) Azarbayjan is awakened and is a base for supporting the revolution. (People repeat the slogan)

I thank you for your generosity and the kindness you bestow upon your servant. I have said it before and I say it again: the greatest honor in my life is that for eight years I have been serving the people of Azarbayjan. And today, I am proud that many Iranians consider me the son of Azarbayjan.

Let me also offer my gratitude for your heroic presence. Let the world see: these are the people of Azarbayjan and Tabriz. Your presence inspires all other nations. It makes Iranian people and all other nations proud. I sincerely and humbly thank all of you. May God enhance your dignity. God willing, in the meetings of the working groups and the meeting of the cabinet members, suitable decisions will be made (he pauses while people chant slogans in his support) (Preceding words in Turkish) I am your servant.

I hope that tomorrow night, I will tell you about our decisions as well as certain points which should be said on TV and now I will say a few prayers. It is time for noon prayers. I hope that the Almighty God who has bestowed us with a rain of his blessings will answer your prayers. Oh dear God, O kind God, add to the dignity of these people day by day. Oh almighty, unique God, place the Iranian nation in the highest, dignified point in the world. Oh God, place our dear youths, students, employees, workers, farmers, academics, and all ranks of society on the summits of international respect. Safeguard our faithful youth; make all the good wishes of our youth come true. O Almighty God, make our great nation reach the summits of progress and development. Remove the obstacles in the way of the progress of our nation. Save the oppressed nation.

Oh benevolent, almighty, and all-knowing God, put an end to the life of usurpers and tyrants. Oh benevolent God, the Iranian nation and world all nations and especially the people of Azarbayjan are awaiting the bright era of the rule of your representative (Reference to the 12th Shiite Imam). Oh almighty God, expedite the reappearance of our Lord of the Age (Reference to the 12th Shiite Imam).

Long live Azarbayjan. I wish you success.

Afghanistan: Karzai's Victory over the US

Afghanistan Video: Hillary Clinton in Kabul (19 November)
Afghanistan: Obama’s Options (From Cage Fighting to Rugs)
Afghanistan Follow-Up: Civil War in the Obama Administration

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The excellent Rajiv Chandrasekaran has an article in The Washington Post this morning, "A Softer Approach to Karzai". It's an effective review of the US-Karzai relationship from the start of the Obama Administration, leading to a "reset" of Washington's approach: "It's not sustainable to have a 'War of the Roses' relationship here, where...we basically throw things at each other."

Chandrasekaran is too cautious a journalist to bring out the full significance of that "reset". It is an acceptance of the manipulation of the Afghan presidential election. It is the posting of a "longtime field officer close to Karzai to be the new [CIA] station chief in Kabul".



And it is the effective firing of President Obama's envoy on Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke. After his heated argument with Karzai over the August election, Holbrooke was effectively declared persona non grata by the President and his inner circle. So Holbrooke now will sit in Washington rather than envoy-ing.

So even if US officials tell Chandrasekaran "that Karzai has been an ineffective leader", don't let that obscure the rest of the picture. Karzai, the "tactically shrewd tribal chieftain", out-manoeuvred Obama and his advisors. And now Washington has no choice but to accept the Afghan President.

A Softer Approach to Karzai
Rajiv Chandrasekaran

When a team of senior U.S. officials led by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton entered the presidential palace in Kabul on Wednesday for a dinner meeting, they had little indication of what Afghan President Hamid Karzai planned to discuss, or whether questions about corruption and governance would pitch their host into a foul mood.

But instead of revisiting old disputes, Karzai brought in several cabinet ministers to talk about development and security. He explained details of a new effort to address graft. And halfway through a meal of lamb stew, chicken and rice, he looked across the table and said he had decided that the United States would be a "critical partner" in his second term, according to a senior U.S. official familiar with the meeting.

The Americans also turned on the charm. Clinton, wearing an embroidered floral coat she had purchased on an earlier trip to Afghanistan, told stories of her time in Arkansas and in the Senate, and listened with interest as the Afghans detailed how they recently exported 12 tons of apples to India by air.

As President Obama nears a decision on how many more troops he will dispatch to Afghanistan, his top diplomats and generals are abandoning for now their get-tough tactics with Karzai and attempting to forge a far warmer relationship. They recognize that their initial strategy may have done more harm than good, fueling stress and anger in a beleaguered, conspiracy-minded leader whom the U.S. government needs as a partner.

"It's not sustainable to have a 'War of the Roses' relationship here, where . . . we basically throw things at each other," said another senior administration official, one of more than a dozen U.S. and Afghan government officials interviewed for this article. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss internal policy deliberations.

The new approach, which one official described as a "reset" of the relationship, will entail more engagement with members of Karzai's cabinet and provincial governors, officials said, because they have concluded that the Afghan president lacks the political clout in his highly decentralized nation to purge corrupt local warlords and power brokers. The CIA has sent a longtime field officer close to Karzai to be the new station chief in Kabul. And State Department envoy Richard C. Holbrooke, whose aggressive style has infuriated the Afghan leader at times, is devoting more attention to shaping policy in Washington and marshaling international support for reconstruction and development programs.

The tension in the relationship stems from the cumulative impact of several White House decisions that were intended to improve the quality of the Afghan government. When Obama became president, he discontinued his predecessor's practice of holding bimonthly videoconferences with Karzai. Obama granted wide latitude to the hard-charging Holbrooke to pressure Karzai to tackle the corruption and mismanagement that have fueled the Taliban's rise. The administration also indicated that it wanted many candidates to challenge Karzai in the August presidential election.

Although there is broad agreement among Obama's national security team that Karzai has been an ineffective leader, a growing number of top officials have begun to question in recent months whether those actions wound up goading him into doing exactly what the White House did not want: forging alliances with former warlords, letting drug traffickers out of prison and threatening to sack competent ministers. Those U.S. officials now think that Karzai, a tactically shrewd tribal chieftain who is under enormous stress as he seeks to placate and balance rival factions in his government, may operate best when he does not feel besieged.

Criticism of the Obama administration's manner of dealing with Karzai has been most pronounced among senior military officials, who question why the State Department has not dispatched more civilians to help the Afghan leader fix the government or worked more intensively with him to achieve U.S. goals.

"We've been treating Karzai like [Slobodan] Milosevic," a senior Pentagon official said, referring to the former Bosnian Serb leader whom Holbrooke pressured into accepting a peace treaty in the 1990s. "That's not a model that will work in Afghanistan."

Read rest of article....

Afghanistan Video: Hillary Clinton in Kabul (19 November)

Afghanistan: Karzai's Victory over the US
Afghanistan: Obama’s Options (From Cage Fighting to Rugs)
Afghanistan Follow-Up: Civil War in the Obama Administration

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Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's statement to US troops yesterday after the inauguration of President Hamid Karzai: note her emphasis on Karzai's goals of a handover of responsibility to Afghanistan forces, which is as important for the US acceptance of the Karzai Government as it is for any supposed timetable for an end to US military involvement:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jwkkuo0qy8Y[/youtube]

Iran: Green Message to Obama "Back Us Instead of Dealing With Ahmadinejad"

The Iran Cul-de-Sac: 4 Points on Obama’s Embrace of Ahmadinejad (and Rejection of the Green Movement)
The Latest from Iran (20 November): Manoeuvres in Washington

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UPDATED 1335 GMT: The Washington Times also has a report on the speech. The headline points are the same as those in the Wall Street Journal as is the description of Makhmalbaf, who "has become a spokesman outside Iran for the so-called Green Movement since the country's disputed June 12 presidential
election".

UPDATED 1045 GMT: EA's Mr Smith has done some checking on the important question, raised by our readers, "To what extent does Makhmalbaf represent the Green Movement and Mir Hossein Mousavi?" The response, from those well-connected and well-versed in Iranian politics, is that "Makhmalbaf is not really connected with Mousavi. Nevertheless, Makhmalbaf acts at the least as a roving public ambassador for him."

Earlier this month, we learned of attempts from inside and outside the Green movement to persuade the Obama Administration to back away from an agreement with Tehran on uranium enrichment and the nuclear programme. That effort is in the open this morning.

The Wall Street Journal reveals the Washington mission by Mohsen Makhmalbaf, the filmmaker, "Presidential campaign spokesman for Mir Hossein Mousavi", and "international spokesman for Iran's main opposition movement". Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, he called for "President Barack Obama to increase his public support for Iranian democrats and significantly intensify financial pressure on Tehran's elite military unit, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps".

As for the nuclear discussions, Makhmalbaf said "that Iranian opposition leaders supported U.S. efforts to use diplomacy to contain the nuclear ambitions of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government". He warned, however, that the current talks would not produce an agreement and should be suspended:

If they agree not to pursue a nuclear bomb and start negotiations, they will lose their supporters. Definitely dialogue is better than war. ... But can you continue your dialogue without any results?

Makhmalbaf suggested an agenda beyond the talks, with the targeted economic measures against the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps: "We need certain sanctions that put pressure on the government but not the people. But they must be done quickly, or they won't have an impact."

Most importantly, Makhmalbaf tried to replace the current nuclear-first priority of the Obama Administration with a democracy-first approach:

We definitely want Obama to say he supports democracy...If he doesn't say that, he will lose his support in Iran.

Don't only focus on the nuclear issue and allow the Iranian government to crack down on the people. You need to focus on human rights.

And, although it is not noted by the Journal, I suspect Makhmalbaf's visit had another essential aim. With the speech at the high-profile Carnegie Endowment, he is trying to repair the damage caused by last month's talk by Ataollah Mohajerani, a former Khatami Government minister and associate of Mehdi Karroubi, at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Mohajerani's speech, interpreted (wrongly, we think) by some Washington insiders as a Green manifesto, alienated US support because of its "hard-line" statements on nuclear weapons and Iran's position on Israel.

Makhmalbaf avoided those potential pitfalls on Thursday. Doing so, he is reaching out to officials in the State Department, the National Security Council, and Obama's White House (even if the CIA remains hostile to a Green ascendancy). We are not dead. You can work with us.

And now the follow-up: will he get a response?