Friday
Oct232009
The Latest from Iran (23 October): Karroubi Appears
Friday, October 23, 2009 at 15:17
NEW Latest Iran Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)
Reading Afghanistan and Iran: Scott Lucas on “The Beautiful Truth” Radio
NEW Iran: Enduring America Leads, The New York Times Follows
NEW Iran Bombings: Former Pakistan Intelligence Chief Blames US
The Latest from Iran (22 October): Unsteady as She Goes
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2255 GMT: Steady as she goes with the Western media mulling over the significance of Iran's delay on acceptance of the uranium enrichment deal. The truth is that, given the intracacies (and perhaps disorders) of Tehran's decision-making system, we won't know for a while. For now, it's a matter of reading clues, and the strongest --- with Iranian state TV putting out the line of a "positive response" --- is that the Iranian Government is gradually putting the proposal through the system.
But we'll stand by our initial projection this morning (0630 GMT): the bigger story is inside Iran. Mehdi Karroubi's appearance at the Media Fair, with the loud and fervant chants of his supporters and the scuffles with bystanders and security forces, will ripple throughout Tehran's political circles. Once again, Karroubi has not backed down (altogether now --- Bring. It. On.), so once again the opposition movement has a boost amidst the Government's ad hoc but still notable shows of force. Indeed, the reformists now get the convergence of the negative, with the arrest of the 60 party members and relatives on Thursday, and the positive with Karroubi's mobilising of public sentiment.
1748 GMT: We're taking a Friday night concert break so will be back later with a round-up on all the news from Iran's nukes to Karroubi at the Media Fair.
1745 GMT: The official statement from the International Atomic Energy Agency says, "Iran informed the Director General today that it is considering the proposal in depth and in a favourable light, but it needs time until the middle of next week to provide a response. The Director General hopes that Iran's response will equally be positive, since approval of this agreement will signal a new era of cooperation."
1730 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi has posted a series of updates on the status of the 60 people arrested --- some freed, some still detained --- last night.
1645 GMT: Oh, You Teases. Having made the world wait all day for a reply to the deadline for acceptance of the third-party enrichment plan, the Iranian Government is indicating it will formally respond to the proposal next week, says Press TV. Tehran is still putting out the public line that it would prefer to buy uranium directly from other countries.
This could be a tactic to make the West wait and show some Iranian independence, both to home and foreign audiences. Equally, it could be the product of an Iranian system which is in a bit of disarray and confusion over internal and external events.
1630 GMT: Quick update on Friday Prayers. Not much to report from Tehran: Hoatoleslam Kazam Sadighi, very much a supporting cleric in the FP line-up, used the address to call for a "second cultural revolution" in Iran's universities. That message follows the line laid down by the Supreme Leader in a speech in August.
1430 GMT: Fars News, betraying worry about the significance of Mehdi Karroubi's appearance at the Media Fair, have rushed out an article which claims people, chanting "Death to the hypocrite!", chased Karroubi from the exhibition. A photograph smacking of Photoshop shows Karroubi being struck in the head by a shoe as he tries to get into a car. Fars also claim, "One of the bodyguards of this failed presidential candidate fired into the air to disperse the crowd, an act that is rarely carried out by bodyguards of personalities in this country." (English summary from HomyLafayette)
1420 GMT: Norooz reports that 60 people were arrested at last night's prayers for detained reformist Shahabeddin Tabatabei. The newspaper provides the names of many of those detained.
1415 GMT: We've posted two videos of the enthusiastic reception for Mehdi Karroubi's arrival at the Iran Media Fair in Tehran today.
1245 GMT: Report that Mohammad Reza Jalaiepour, detained earlier in the post-election crisis and arrested against last night, has been released.
1230 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has entered the Iran Media Fair to chants from supporters. Parleman News adds that there are reports of scuffles started by pro-Ahmadinejad groups. Karroubi was escorted outside, though it is unclear whether by his followers or by security forces in an effort to protect him.
1200 GMT: Stalling, Game-Playing, etc. State television is reporting that the Iranian Government is balking at signing the uranium enrichment agreement today. An official says, "Now we are awaiting a positive and constructive response on Iran's proposal from the other party on providing nuclear fuel for Tehran's reactor. The other party is expected to avoid past mistakes in violating agreements ... and to gain Iran's trust."
1155 GMT: Grand Ayatollahs Montazeri and Sane'i have added their voices to those condemning last night’s arrests of 30 Islamic Iran Participation Front members and relatives.
1100 GMT: Union Battles. Meanwhile, on the economic front, there are signs of further unrest for the Government. A strike in Ahvaz received some attention, and an EA reader has just tipped us off the following, adapted from the Persian2English blog:
1040 GMT: An EA correspondent follows up on our story about the Iran Media Fair, in which the Kayhan "hard-line" newspaper reportedly had to remove its guestbook and flag after they were decorated with pro-Mousavi slogans and Green ribbons:
1000 GMT: Still waiting for news of Friday Prayers in Tehran. Meanwhile, the families of political prisoners have condemned last night's arrests of 30 members of the Islamic Iran Participation Front: “If you have no mercy on our innocent children, at least have mercy on your religion; stop ruling in the name of Islam and stop dishonouring Islam."
0855 GMT: On a more serious note with our friends at The New York Times: it appears they are still intent on trying --- through naivete, mischief, or really bad journalism --- to demolish the draft agreement for third-party enrichment of Iran's journalism.
All week David Sanger has been led by the nose to proclaim that Iran was walking out of the talks (not true) and that Tehran was already plotting to circumvent the agreement (speculative propaganda fed to him by "Western officials"). Now Robert Worth chips in with "Iranian Lawmaker Dismisses Uranium Plan".
To give Worth some credit, at least this incident --- unlike Sanger's --- did happen. As we noted yesterday, Reuters was pushing the story that Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar said that the deal to send Iran's uranium to Russia for processing was "not acceptable".
But we also noted that Bahonar has nothing to do with the Iranian Government's consideration of the proposal --- he is a member of Parliament sniping from the outside. And we suggested that the comments of Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's lead negotiator in the Vienna talks, might be far more important, as he signalled that Tehran would accept the agreement.
On reflection, intrepid New York Times colleagues, go ahead and steal from us (see 0840 GMT). Because channeling off-the-record comments and Reuters' unchecked reports isn't doing anyone any good.
0840 GMT: In a separate entry, we've just had a bit of fun with Michael Slackman of The New York Times, who seems to have stolen our line on Mehdi Karroubi for his story this morning.
0815 GMT: The deputy head of security forces in Sistan-Baluchestan, describing Sunday's bombing, has repeated claims that the attacks are part of "the U.S. plan to create insecurity in our country".
0630 GMT: For the international media, "Iran" today means attention to the Vienna talks, where the Iranian regime and the "5+1" powers face a deadline to accept the draft agreement on third-party enrichment of Tehran's uranium. Make no mistake, however: the bigger stories are inside Iran.
The significance of last night's arrests of members of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, gathered to pray for detainee Shahabeddin Tabatabei (see yesterday's updates), is still not fully known. This was of course a spiteful move against Government opponents, but is it a one-off raid or part of a wider, renewed campaign to break the Green Wave and anyone associated with it? Have President Ahmadinejad and the Iranian security services, whom we believe have been on the back foot since Sunday's bombings, decided to re-assert themselves or is this more a sign of a disjointed regime lashing out in an ad hoc fashion?
The answers should emerge in Government activities over the next 72 hours. Today is the Iranian weekend but still there may be clues in hostility directed at Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and their followers. Even then, questions would remain. How does the regime deal with the rising discontent from senior clerics? And will the pro-Ahmadinejed forces go even farther --- with political moves and "information" --- to blunt the National Unity Plan of conservatives and principlists?
Answers are unlikely to come from Friday Prayers, which are likely to be a relatively low-key affair. And President Ahmadinejad spent Thursday night talking to academics in general terms about the necessity of building "community" for progress and excellence.
Reading Afghanistan and Iran: Scott Lucas on “The Beautiful Truth” Radio
NEW Iran: Enduring America Leads, The New York Times Follows
NEW Iran Bombings: Former Pakistan Intelligence Chief Blames US
The Latest from Iran (22 October): Unsteady as She Goes
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
2255 GMT: Steady as she goes with the Western media mulling over the significance of Iran's delay on acceptance of the uranium enrichment deal. The truth is that, given the intracacies (and perhaps disorders) of Tehran's decision-making system, we won't know for a while. For now, it's a matter of reading clues, and the strongest --- with Iranian state TV putting out the line of a "positive response" --- is that the Iranian Government is gradually putting the proposal through the system.
But we'll stand by our initial projection this morning (0630 GMT): the bigger story is inside Iran. Mehdi Karroubi's appearance at the Media Fair, with the loud and fervant chants of his supporters and the scuffles with bystanders and security forces, will ripple throughout Tehran's political circles. Once again, Karroubi has not backed down (altogether now --- Bring. It. On.), so once again the opposition movement has a boost amidst the Government's ad hoc but still notable shows of force. Indeed, the reformists now get the convergence of the negative, with the arrest of the 60 party members and relatives on Thursday, and the positive with Karroubi's mobilising of public sentiment.
1748 GMT: We're taking a Friday night concert break so will be back later with a round-up on all the news from Iran's nukes to Karroubi at the Media Fair.
1745 GMT: The official statement from the International Atomic Energy Agency says, "Iran informed the Director General today that it is considering the proposal in depth and in a favourable light, but it needs time until the middle of next week to provide a response. The Director General hopes that Iran's response will equally be positive, since approval of this agreement will signal a new era of cooperation."
1730 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi has posted a series of updates on the status of the 60 people arrested --- some freed, some still detained --- last night.
1645 GMT: Oh, You Teases. Having made the world wait all day for a reply to the deadline for acceptance of the third-party enrichment plan, the Iranian Government is indicating it will formally respond to the proposal next week, says Press TV. Tehran is still putting out the public line that it would prefer to buy uranium directly from other countries.
This could be a tactic to make the West wait and show some Iranian independence, both to home and foreign audiences. Equally, it could be the product of an Iranian system which is in a bit of disarray and confusion over internal and external events.
1630 GMT: Quick update on Friday Prayers. Not much to report from Tehran: Hoatoleslam Kazam Sadighi, very much a supporting cleric in the FP line-up, used the address to call for a "second cultural revolution" in Iran's universities. That message follows the line laid down by the Supreme Leader in a speech in August.
1430 GMT: Fars News, betraying worry about the significance of Mehdi Karroubi's appearance at the Media Fair, have rushed out an article which claims people, chanting "Death to the hypocrite!", chased Karroubi from the exhibition. A photograph smacking of Photoshop shows Karroubi being struck in the head by a shoe as he tries to get into a car. Fars also claim, "One of the bodyguards of this failed presidential candidate fired into the air to disperse the crowd, an act that is rarely carried out by bodyguards of personalities in this country." (English summary from HomyLafayette)
1420 GMT: Norooz reports that 60 people were arrested at last night's prayers for detained reformist Shahabeddin Tabatabei. The newspaper provides the names of many of those detained.
1415 GMT: We've posted two videos of the enthusiastic reception for Mehdi Karroubi's arrival at the Iran Media Fair in Tehran today.
1245 GMT: Report that Mohammad Reza Jalaiepour, detained earlier in the post-election crisis and arrested against last night, has been released.
1230 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has entered the Iran Media Fair to chants from supporters. Parleman News adds that there are reports of scuffles started by pro-Ahmadinejad groups. Karroubi was escorted outside, though it is unclear whether by his followers or by security forces in an effort to protect him.
1200 GMT: Stalling, Game-Playing, etc. State television is reporting that the Iranian Government is balking at signing the uranium enrichment agreement today. An official says, "Now we are awaiting a positive and constructive response on Iran's proposal from the other party on providing nuclear fuel for Tehran's reactor. The other party is expected to avoid past mistakes in violating agreements ... and to gain Iran's trust."
1155 GMT: Grand Ayatollahs Montazeri and Sane'i have added their voices to those condemning last night’s arrests of 30 Islamic Iran Participation Front members and relatives.
1100 GMT: Union Battles. Meanwhile, on the economic front, there are signs of further unrest for the Government. A strike in Ahvaz received some attention, and an EA reader has just tipped us off the following, adapted from the Persian2English blog:
Members of the board of directors for Haft-Tappeh’s sugar cane labour association are on the verge of getting fired or being imprisoned.
According to reports, threats and pressure on board members and labour workers from Shoosh intelligence service has increased. Since the morning of Wednesday October 21, company guards, who worked under the control of Shoosh intelligence service, prohibited four members of the board from going to work. Three were sentenced to six months of jail time with physical punishment and six months of jail time with partial bail, and one was sentenced to four months of jail time with physical punishment and eight months of jail time with partial bail.
Mr. Ali Nejati, the head of the board of directors of the sugar cane labour association was fired and prohibited from going to work. Over the past six months he has not received any payments or benefits.
1040 GMT: An EA correspondent follows up on our story about the Iran Media Fair, in which the Kayhan "hard-line" newspaper reportedly had to remove its guestbook and flag after they were decorated with pro-Mousavi slogans and Green ribbons:
I went there the first day, Tuesday. The large Kayhan booth had a gaggle of journalists around a table. Different people were taking turns signing the guestbookit. One signed it with a Mousavi slogan, the next with an Ahmadinejad slogan, repeat, rinse.
It was orderly, everyone was pushing up and taking pictures of the guestbook. That went on for at least 3 hours. I left, and perhaps then they "removed" it, but what was more remarkable was that the whole thing seemed playful when I was watching it. That kind of stuff happens here, more often than the bad stuff, actually.
1000 GMT: Still waiting for news of Friday Prayers in Tehran. Meanwhile, the families of political prisoners have condemned last night's arrests of 30 members of the Islamic Iran Participation Front: “If you have no mercy on our innocent children, at least have mercy on your religion; stop ruling in the name of Islam and stop dishonouring Islam."
0855 GMT: On a more serious note with our friends at The New York Times: it appears they are still intent on trying --- through naivete, mischief, or really bad journalism --- to demolish the draft agreement for third-party enrichment of Iran's journalism.
All week David Sanger has been led by the nose to proclaim that Iran was walking out of the talks (not true) and that Tehran was already plotting to circumvent the agreement (speculative propaganda fed to him by "Western officials"). Now Robert Worth chips in with "Iranian Lawmaker Dismisses Uranium Plan".
To give Worth some credit, at least this incident --- unlike Sanger's --- did happen. As we noted yesterday, Reuters was pushing the story that Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Reza Bahonar said that the deal to send Iran's uranium to Russia for processing was "not acceptable".
But we also noted that Bahonar has nothing to do with the Iranian Government's consideration of the proposal --- he is a member of Parliament sniping from the outside. And we suggested that the comments of Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's lead negotiator in the Vienna talks, might be far more important, as he signalled that Tehran would accept the agreement.
On reflection, intrepid New York Times colleagues, go ahead and steal from us (see 0840 GMT). Because channeling off-the-record comments and Reuters' unchecked reports isn't doing anyone any good.
0840 GMT: In a separate entry, we've just had a bit of fun with Michael Slackman of The New York Times, who seems to have stolen our line on Mehdi Karroubi for his story this morning.
0815 GMT: The deputy head of security forces in Sistan-Baluchestan, describing Sunday's bombing, has repeated claims that the attacks are part of "the U.S. plan to create insecurity in our country".
0630 GMT: For the international media, "Iran" today means attention to the Vienna talks, where the Iranian regime and the "5+1" powers face a deadline to accept the draft agreement on third-party enrichment of Tehran's uranium. Make no mistake, however: the bigger stories are inside Iran.
The significance of last night's arrests of members of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front, gathered to pray for detainee Shahabeddin Tabatabei (see yesterday's updates), is still not fully known. This was of course a spiteful move against Government opponents, but is it a one-off raid or part of a wider, renewed campaign to break the Green Wave and anyone associated with it? Have President Ahmadinejad and the Iranian security services, whom we believe have been on the back foot since Sunday's bombings, decided to re-assert themselves or is this more a sign of a disjointed regime lashing out in an ad hoc fashion?
The answers should emerge in Government activities over the next 72 hours. Today is the Iranian weekend but still there may be clues in hostility directed at Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and their followers. Even then, questions would remain. How does the regime deal with the rising discontent from senior clerics? And will the pro-Ahmadinejed forces go even farther --- with political moves and "information" --- to blunt the National Unity Plan of conservatives and principlists?
Answers are unlikely to come from Friday Prayers, which are likely to be a relatively low-key affair. And President Ahmadinejad spent Thursday night talking to academics in general terms about the necessity of building "community" for progress and excellence.
tagged Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i, David Sanger, Fars News, Fereshteh Ghazi, Haft-Tappeh, HomyLafayette, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Iran Media Fair, Islamic Iran Participation Front, Kayhan, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Michael Slackman, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Mohammad Reza Jalaiepour, New York Times, Persian2English, Press TV, Robert Worth, Russia, Shahabeddin Tabatabei, Vienna Talks, uranium enrichment in Middle East & Iran
Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, Ayatollah Yusuf Sane'i, David Sanger, Fars News, Fereshteh Ghazi, Haft-Tappeh, HomyLafayette, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Iran Media Fair, Islamic Iran Participation Front, Kayhan, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mehdi Karroubi, Michael Slackman, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, Mohammad Reza Jalaiepour, New York Times, Persian2English, Press TV, Robert Worth, Russia, Shahabeddin Tabatabei, Vienna Talks, uranium enrichment in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (17)
IRGC must also be nervous about 13 Aban and itching for information. To them, any gathering of reformists is a potential source.
Who orders these arrests? Is it Larijani, or do the orders come directly from SL?
And where the hell is Rafs?
thye won't tough The green leaders, but will do their best to intimidate people. But the question is if they succeed they haven't so far. It seems all they have done so far just enraged more people for every day that goes. I see some the green path and it's declaration being valid by the government and it's desperate actions more than anything else.
Rafsanjani has a new name these days in Iran. They call him Raft Sanjani (gone Sanjani).
I'm wondering why you are so certain that Bahonar's remarks have no bearing on what will happen in the nuclear discussions? The government is in disarray, no one agrees on anything, and Khamenei has the final say (if he's awake). Also, I'm not sure if I agree with you over the point that internal Iran developments are more important than the nuclear discussions. From where I sit, here in the Middle East, I sense that there is nothing that is more important than avoiding a missile war (especially one with nuclear warheads).
Edward
Edward,
To our knowledge Bahonar has not been involved in the drafting and development of the Government's nuclear strategy, not has he been involved with key actors like Jalili, let alone Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. The loudest signal yesterday came from Soltanieh, which pointed to Iran's agreement if it can present this as "victory" for its programme rather than giving way to West.
I should been clearer. Of course, for many in Middle East, the nuclear issue will be very important. For those inside Iran, I'm not so certain that their primary concern is the Vienna talks.
S.
I fully agree with Edward. Reuters reports that Iran fails to accept U.N.-drafted nuclear deal, making its own (unknown) proposal instead:
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE59M2GS20091023?sp=true
Even after 30 years some people still believe that negotiations are possible with this bunch of liars and slaughterers.
To the point I made earlier that the raid may have been organized by IRGC to get information on Nov 4, Mousavi's Oct 23 FB page cites Mostafa Tajzadeh's wife in an interview: '...the coup forces have accused the families of political prisoners of conspiracy about the Nov. 4th protest ... by participating in this religious gathering!' http://www.irannewsdigest.com/2009/10/23/mir-hossein-mousavi-oct-23/
About the Karroubi photos — if it's Photoshop, then Fars did an unusually good job of of getting the reflection of the shoe right on the top the car...
it's not photoshop he was really injured ; here you are the link :
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=2674586&id=95040933929
there are three pictures ; click on
ange paris,
Off topic, previously you mentioned Ghalibaf's actions at the Battle of Khorramshar in 1982. Do you have any articles or books that goes into historical detail on this? There is not much on the whole Iran-Iraq war subject where I am at.
Thanks
Scott
“This could be a tactic to make the West wait and show some Iranian independence, both to home and foreign audiences. Equally, it could be the product of an Iranian system which is in a bit of disarray and confusion over internal and external events.”
You are way too kind to call it a TACTIC. I think your hunch of disarray and confusion is more like it.
I add idiocy and self- aggrandizement to disarray and confusion. These rough-cut village idiots who work for the regime are void of necessary skills to devise and implement tactical and strategic plans with any meaningful outcome. If they did, they would not get themselves in a pickle with such a massive and obvious vote rigging. These village idiots have a pigeon view of the world. They argue about everything and anything ad nauseam. Each person believes he is right and the other person is wrong. And when he finds out he is wrong, he never accepts it nor would he apologize. Every deal has to end as a win for them and a loss for the other side. The concept of win-win is foreign to them. They use force to beat you to submission and they submit to nothing but force. These cultural nuances are critical for the West to understand when dealing with this bunch.
I personally believe Western style negotiation will not work with these village idiot demagogues. I put my money on the new generation of savvy and smart Iranians with keen awareness and respect for the world that surrounds them and their place in it.
Thomas,
I have nothing about it ; but two years ago we were present ( with my husband ) at a lecture ( about iranian's nuclear concern ) led by a famous french researcher, Mr Hourcade, specialised in "iranian concerns", in the senate in paris , I heard about galibaf for the first time in my life and I didn't know him before; Hourcade explained that , now it's the generation of AN , who were pasdar during the iran irak war , that are at the head of the country having the best jobs but galibaf is a true nationalist , a true and brave soldier, who had won the battle in khoramshahr in one day and he was called the napoleon of iran, when AN since the begining was a torturer serving intelligence departement of the country; I think Hourcade travelled many times to iran and saw regularly galibaf and found him a very respectable man and said that galibaf hated AN; voilà, that's what I khnow, and sorry for my english
Megan, "Every deal has to end as a win for them and a loss for the other side. The concept of win-win is foreign to them" hits it on the nail! It would hurt their sense of honor (Qeyrat) to be treated as equals.
Many thanks to all for keeping the discussion and the debate going. The fight over whether the shoe-throwing pic is authentic is still raging on the Internet, but it looks like y'all here have put the issue to rest.
S.
So it has been 2 weeks (give or take - I can't quite remember when it was) since the SL was reportedly given the National Unity Plan. What is happening with it? When should we expect some sort of comment from the SL on it? Maybe he is waiting for Nov 4, which will probably be too late! Qods day gave a big boost to the movement and it seems Nov 4 may be bigger. Rafsanjani has been fairly quite lately too.
Oh yeah and Scott the shoe pic looks really fake, the shoe doesn't look like its moving
Somewhere I just read Karroubi's statement on the Fair, he said the usual people harassed him inside the fair, as he tried to leave and that pamphlets were thrown at him from the 1st level, which knocked his turban. Didn't mention anything about a shoe - I'll try to find it again for you.
ange paris,
Thanks again and your english is just fine.