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Saturday
Oct242009

The Latest from Iran (24 October): Resurgence at the Fair?

NEW Iran: Football's Going Green (with the help of Press TV)
NEW Iran: The Karroubi Effect
NEW Iran: Karroubi Statement on Events at Iran Media Fair
NEW Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)
Reading Afghanistan and Iran: Scott Lucas on “The Beautiful Truth” Radio

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KARROUBI MEDIA FAIR 21935 GMT: A Note from the Media Fair. As the rumors and discussion continue over the events and protests of the week, another incident, reported by the Iranian Labor News Agency and passed on by an EA correspondent:
A stand for the "Wave of Law" website (a deliberate twist of the term "Green Wave") was dismantled at the press exhibition in Tehran for collecting signatures for a petition seeking a complaint against Mir Hosein Moussavi. The stand faced reluctance from exhibition visitors.

Permission to set up the stand for this new website was given in circumstances in which eligible applicants had been refused. Warnings from the organizers of the Tehran Press Fair were instrumental in the stand's ejection.

1920 GMT: The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has intervened again with an open letter to the former prosecutor of Tehran, judges, Revolutionary Guard, and the Ministry of Intelligence:
We do not open this letter with “greetings”, as it is a symbol of all that you and your colleagues have denied us and those like us....The mass assault of the agents of the former Tehran prosecutor on the central office of the Participation Front, the election headquarters, and newspapers as well as the mass arrest of the members of the Participation Front, other political, and media activists happened not long ago, and the wave of arrests still continue.

This time you and your colleagues have created a new wonder. Thirty years after the establishment of the “Islamic” system, you silenced the “O God! O God!” prayer in the throats of this nation’s sons and daughters and the innocent families of [political] prisoners by your weapons and handcuffs. We remind you of this because it is the duty of every Muslim to stop their religious brothers and sisters from committing bad deeds that we hope are not being committed deliberately and knowingly but rather unintentionally and under pressure.

Before it is too late come to your senses and don’t be the tools of oppression for the tyrant masters of power. Someday that God willing is coming and is not too far away, they will be too caught up as the results of their words and actions to be able to help you.

1715 GMT: We haven't forgotten you. It is just a relatively quiet period in Iran, and we're heading out to catch up with friends and colleagues. Back later to round up the day's events.

1530 GMT: Saturday Football Story. Looks like the Green wave has made it into a photo of the Iran national team on the Press TV website --- see separate entry.

1455 GMT: The Curious Development with the Nuclear Deal. Something very strange is happening as the Iranian Government deliberates whether to accept the Vienna proposal on uranium enrichment.

Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani has now come out against the agreement, declaring, "Westerners are insisting to go in a direction that speaks of cheating and are imposing some things on us. They are saying we will give you the 20 percent [enriched uranium] fuel for the Tehran reactor only if you give us your enriched uranium. I see no link between these two things."

Larijani's remarks follow those of the Deputy Speaker, Mohammad Reza Bahonar. Neither have had a role in the current negotiations with the "5+1" powers, although Larijani was the former head of Iran's nuclear programme.

So is Larijani, like Bahonar, just staking out some Parliamentary autonomy over whether the deal goes through (and, if so, why)? Or is he reflecting the views of the Supreme Leader, whose endorsement is required for the agreement to proceed?

1430 GMT: For almost two hours, rumours have been racing that Mohammad Khatami and/or Mir Hossein Mousavi have been at the Iran Media Fair this afternoon. The Iranian Labor News Agency was even reporting that Khatami was inside the Mossalla, where the Fair is taking place, before removing the article.

Latest rumours include that Mousavi approached the Fair but did not enter on the advice of security and that one man disguised as Khatami was arrested.

1100 GMT: "Western" Media Foolishness. If Iranian media are highlighting their capacity for distortion and misinformation in their coverage of the Karroubi-Media Fair events, their British counterparts are giving them a run for their money with their representation of Iran's position in the uranium enrichment talks (as we predicted at 0845 GMT). The Times proclaims, "Barack Obama's policy on brink of collapse",while The Daily Telegraph --- citing that most reliable of sources, Mr John Bolton --- yells, "Israeli Military Strike More Likely".

1035 GMT: More Other Side of the Story (see 1015 GMT). The strategy of the Islamic Republic News Agency is to use a member of the Parliament's Cultural Commission to argue that Mehdi Karroubi and his supporters planned yesterday's events at the Media Fair as part of their strategy for "overthrow" of the Iranian system.

Fars News, meanwhile, continues to push the story as one of pro-Government crowds confronting Karroubi with the "Death to the hypocrite" chant, to which Karroubi's bodyguards responded by brandishing guns.

1030 GMT: Deaths in Tehran. Iranian state media is reporting six people, including a judge, have been killed in the Iranian capital. The incident, however, appears to be unrelated to post-election conflict and instead stems from a "family dispute".

1015 GMT: The Other Side of the Story. It is illuminating to compare Mehdi Karroubi's account of the Media Fair experience with that from state media. Press TV portrays a balanced reception --- "Former Iranian presidential candidate Karroubi has been met with slogans both in favor of and against himself....The opponents shouted 'Liar, get lost' and 'Death to Monafeq [hypocrite]' while the proponents chanted, 'Long live Karroubi'." There's also a balance in blame for the violence, "The fair turned into a scene of clashes and some booths were damaged after the politician was attacked by a shoe."

No balance or indeed context in the headline, however: "Karroubi's bodyguard fires into air at Tehran fair".

0920 GMT: We've posted the English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's statement on yesterday's events at the Iran Media Fair in a separate entry.

0855 GMT: Responding to Karroubi. In a signal of the interaction of yesterday's events with the growing clerical movement against the regime, Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani talked with Mehdi Karroubi by phone after the incidents at the Media Fair. Bayat-Zanjani expressed his admiration for Karroubi’s resistance in front of obscene and hideous acts, calling him a fighter and a true believer: “The more influential you are, the more they [Ahmadinejad supporters] resist you and these insulting attempts [just] reveal how successful you are.”

0845 GMT: The Enrichment Deal is On. Just to be clear, while there will be much huffing and puffing about devious/manipulative/dangerous Iran today, Tehran's delay in signing the Vienna deal on third-party enrichment is --- for now --- only another step on the path to agreement.

The US signalled that it would allow more time for Iran's decision, while making the necessary tough noises, in a statement by State Department spokesman Ian Kelly:
Obviously we would have preferred to have a response today. We approach this with a sense of urgency. We can stretch things for a few days, and that's really what we're talking about. But we're not going to wait forever.

An EA reader adds that there is also an easing of hostility in the French media on the Iran nuclear issue, with newspapers like Le Monde accepting that Tehran's response will come next week.

0745 GMT: Pedestrian has posted an English translation of Mir Hossein Mousavi's remarks on Wednesday to the staff of his Kalemeh Sabz newspaper, which was raided and closed by Government forces on 22 June: "We must not allow the events of the past few months to create pessimism about the revolution."

0725 GMT: Inevitably we are picking up on two major stories this morning.

On the international front, the signs continue that the Iranian regime --- albeit several days after a deadline because of its gamesmanship and the rumblings of its bureaucracy --- will accept the uranium enrichment deal. While it deliberates, the Government has offered another significant concession to the "West"; officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency will arrive in Iran on Saturday to inspect the second uranium enrichment plant at Fordoo near Qom. The visit will last 2-3 days.

However, it is the Mehdi Karroubi story that dominates our initial thoughts this morning. As conversation continues to buzz about his appearance at the Iran Media Fair, the crowd enthusiasm, and the subsequent scuffles, we've posted an analysis of the significance.
Saturday
Oct242009

Iran: Karroubi Statement on Events at Iran Media Fair

Iran: The Karroubi Effect
Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)
The Latest from Iran (24 October): Resurgence

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English translation from Iran All Day blog:

KARROUBI MEDIA FAIROn Friday I went to the Media Fair. On arrival large groups of people supported and welcomed me kindly. Then I went to the Exhibition Place. From there I was guided toward the booths to visit the Fair. Large numbers of people were kindly accompanying me though this path, and I repeatedly asked them not to chant any slogans.

Meanwhile a group of at most ten people (pro-Ahmadinejad hardliners) started chanting “Death to the Traitor”. When they insisted on chanting this slogan, the large number of people who were accompanying me in response started chanting slogans such as “Death to the Dictator”. All the witnesses can confirm that the number of people who were chanting against me was almost nothing compared to those who were chanting in support of me, while the number of people who were accompanying and supporting me was getting larger by minute.

What was interesting was the peaceful nature of those who were supporting me, and their calmness even when they were passing by some of the booths of the news agencies who are against reform . However, as the slogans increased, to prevent any tension that could have be used taken advantage by some to use violence against people, I decided that it would be best to leave the exhibition. When I informed the authorities they escorted me from a special route, and the people could not accompany me anymore.

After a few minutes when it got less crowded, a number of individuals whose presence was certainly planned, and as usual have no concerns regarding their actions, suddenly surrounded me and started chanting their usual slogans. They acted as they always do, and some of them started throwing different objects including brochures [at me].
Saturday
Oct242009

Latest Iran Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)

Iran: The Karroubi Effect
Iran: Karroubi Statement on Events at Iran Media Fair
Iran: Enduring America Leads, The New York Times Follows
The Latest from Iran (24 October): Resurgence

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Extended Video of Karroubi's Appearance

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujG9wAnyp3E[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsltaiNtmMo[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aI-KztJ58bc[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rU4ovXENTfQ[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzBq785XenU[/youtube]
Saturday
Oct242009

Palestine: Hamas Rejects Elections in Gaza

Palestine: Abbas Gambles on January Elections
Israel-Palestine: Clinton to Obama “Little Progress”

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TURKEY/Hamas has responded harshly to Friday's decree by Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas that general elections for the Presidency and Parliament will be held in the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 24 January.

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri declared that no vote can be held in Gaza, "This announcement means that elections will take place only in the West Bank, cementing the Palestinian split instead of fixing the problem."
Saturday
Oct242009

Iran: The Karroubi Effect

The Latest from Iran (24 October): Resurgence
Video: Karroubi & Crowd at Iran Media Fair (23 October)
The Latest from Iran (23 October): Karroubi Appears

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KARROUBI3On 17 July Mehdi Karroubi, a cleric who had finished a distant fourth in the Presidential vote, allocated a measly percentage point of the toll, joined the crowds marching to the Friday Prayer ceremony being led by Hashemi Rafsanjani. He was jostled by security forces, with his clerical turban knocked from his head.

Far from removing Karroubi from the political scene, however, the incident symbolically propelled him to the centre of it. The former Speaker of Parliament, was well-known inside Iran, of course, but Mir Hossein Mousavi, who had finished a disputed second to President Ahmadinejad in the vote was the most prominent leader of the Green Wave. By late July, that was no longer the case. After Karroubi published a letter he had sent to Rafsanjani, asking for full investigation of the regime's abuses of detainees, he too became a representative of the demands for reforms that millions of people had sought from the first marches after the election.

Yesterday the turban was knocked from Karroubi's head again. He arrived at the Iran Media Fair, which has been running all week. One look at the videos, however, will show the impact of the appearance. The electric effect on the crowd, as they were spurred into both positive chants for Karroubi and, allegedly, anti-regime outbursts ("Death to the Dictator"), overturns weeks of speculation that the Green movement is spent.

The jostling of Karroubi, forcing his withdrawal from the Fair, may have been the result of a surge in the crowd. It may have been a clash between pro-Ahmadinejad supporters and their opponents. Security forces may have been trying to protect Karroubi, rather than joining in an attack upon him.

None of that matters. Once someone swiped an arm at Karroubi's head, they donated an injection of spirit to the Green wave. Details of plans to change the system are difficult to develop, let alone implement. So movements can drag, drift, wander as the messiness of politics overtakes the initial rush of protest. But when the turban again came off Karroubi yesterday, it overtook all those details --- indeed it overcame the Government surveillances, detentions, and "information" which have tried to sap the strength from opposition. Karroubi had made it, he had defied the authorities, and so could "we".

As we count the days to the 13 Aban (4 November) demonstrations, we have wondered if the Green Wave could maintain its strength, rather than ebbing out into a half-mobilised, less than half-hearted demonstration. I think we just got our answer.