Latest from Iran (30 October): Now to the Real Contest

NEW Video: Tonight “Allahu Akhbars” at Sharif University
More Time, Please: Ahmadinejad’s Legitimacy and Iran’s Nuclear Talks
Iran: Text of Ahmadinejad Speech in Mashaad (29 October)
Iran: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting
Iran: The Supreme Leader’s Threat — Strength or Weakness?
Video: The Announcements for the 13 Aban Marches

The Latest from Iran (29 October): Opposition Momentum?

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2000 GMT: We've posted video of tonight's protests at Sharif University in Tehran.

1840 GMT: Meanwhile, despite Larijani's harsh and perhaps troublesome intervention, the Government strategy --- as signalled by the President --- unfolds. The Islamic Republic News Agency is quoting an "unnamed source" that Iran has not given an "answer" to a specific deal on third-party enrichment. Instead, "The Islamic republic only announced its positive view to the negotiation and has said it is ready to have negotiations based on its technical and economic considerations regarding how to procure fuel for the Tehran reactor." (English summary in Agence France Presse article)

Translation? Iran is trying to take the proposal for shipment of 80 percent of stock off the table, beginning from scratch on the questions of timing and amounts to be delivered to Russia. That in effect undoes three months of talks on the US-led plan while maintaining Tehran's claim that it is still committed to discussions.

1835 GMT: Larijani the Hard-Liner. What is Iran's Speaker of the Parliament playing at?

Almost two weeks after the Sistan-Baluchestan bombing, Ali Larijani cast blame upon the United States:

Reliable evidence shows the US played a role in the recent move. The Iranian nation should correctly recognize the US for what it is. The United States and Israel are the main culprits of these events and known enemies of the Iranian nation.

Larijani has now publicly levelled these charges on at least three occasions, while no one in the Ahmadinejad Government --- as the President welcomes Western concessions towards Iran in nuclear talks --- has done so. So is the Speaker of the Parliament, as we speculated earlier this week, representing the Supreme Leader's specific disquiet over the handling of the bombing? Or is this a wider effort to undermine Ahmadinejad's manoeuvres in a continued "engagement" on the nuclear issue?

1820 GMT: The Price of Defiance. Yesterday we reported --- and readers added information --- on a mathematics student from Sharif University who challenged the Supreme Leader, during his Wednesday speech to "academic elites", with a series of questions.

Well, it is reported today by Sharif University students that their classmate, Mahmoud Vahidnia, was taken away on Thursday night by Revolutionary Guard agents for questioning. His family were told he would only be detained for an hour but have still not heard from him; they have been told by other students that he is fine but cannot talk. It is also claimed that the family has been warned not to speak about the case.

1800 GMT: There are some interesting points on Iran's uranium enrichment coming out of an article by Julian Borger of The Guardian, "The fading of an Iranian mirage". Borger's piece is useful primarily for his exposure of the US-led strategy behind the third-party enrichment deal, "[Iran]wants to hand over the uranium in batches as the fuel rods are delivered. In that scenario, Iran's stockpile of LEU – currently enough to make a bomb – is not reduced, even for a few months. There is no diplomatic dividend, in the form of reduced tensions and negotiating space."
The real meat for discussion about the Iranian programme are in the comments being made by readers about the uranium stockpile.

1425 GMT: And Now, Your Friday Prayer from Tehran, Courtesy of Ayatollah Emami-Kashani.

1. Foreigners Are Devious: "We must identify where the enemy seeks to penetrate the Islamic establishment and then counter it."

2. But Other Foreigners Think Iran's Science (and Nuclear Programme?) Is Fabulous. "We must realize that aside from enemy media outlets, the rest of the world supports the Islamic and scientific movements in Iran. When science is founded upon faith and Islam, no one will be able to stop it."

3. But Remember, Those First Foreigners Are Devious and Jealous. "History has shown that the Islamic civilization, which incorporates science, faith and effort, was taking over the world, when certain parties stepped in and laid claim to the achievements of Muslims. They proclaimed themselves as the owners of the world and enslaved Muslim countries."

4. So Don't Think of Criticising Us. "Criticism that is intended to help make progress is good, but views that are expressed to belittle [the] others are not acceptable in any way."

1405 GMT: Report that all the workers arrested last week in connection with a strike at an Ahwaz pipe factory have now been released.

1400 GMT: Tagheer, the website associated with Mehdi Karroubi, has published a series of photos of Etemade Melli editor-in-chief Mohammad Ghoochani (left), released on bail today after 131 days in detention (see 0945 GMT).

1310 GMT: Ayatollah Montazeri, in solidarity with detainees and their families, has declared that he will not be celebrating Imam Reza's birthday. (English summary on Facebook site associated with Mir Hossein Mousavi)

1300 GMT: Report that Iran's Prosecutor General has confirmed three death sentences previously announced for post-election detainees are final.

1050 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, a fervent critic of the Government during the post-election crisis, has suffered a heart attack and is in intensive care in a hospital in Qom.

0945 GMT: Islamic Labour News Agency is confirming the report that Mohammad Ghoochani, the editor-in-chief of Etemade Melli newspaper, has been released on $100,000 bail after 131 days in detention.

An EA source adds that Ghoochani was freed at midnight, with no notice to his family, and took a taxi home.

0700 GMT: A slow start to the day so we've focused on an analysis of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political move yesterday, using the nuclear issue to shore up and boost his Presidential legitimacy. We've also posted an extract from his speech in Mashaad.

The quick summary? While the Western media worries over the nuclear question, the sharper-eyed should look towards the bigger issue and bigger battle: Ahmadinejad's quest to establish his authority both against the opposition and against challengers within the regime. We now have the English translation of this week's meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, setting up their next moves, and the videos being circulated for the 13 Aban demonstrations.

It is five days to 13 Aban (4 November).

Israel-Syria: Croatia Steps In, US Backs Away

Israel and Syria: Can Turkey Be a Mediator?

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Croatian President Stipe Mesic followed a visit to Israel with talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday. Topics included the promotion of  economic relations, including Croatian investments in oil and gas domains. However, Israeli-Syrian peace talks are also on the agenda, with Mesic offering to broker Syrian-Israeli discussions, holding them in Croatia's Brijuni Islands .

It is not shocking to see a European Union candidate looking for political leverage through its foreign policy agenda. Nor is it shocking to see no change in Israel's position. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "He held negotiations with the elder Assad, and he saw no reason that he could not hold negotiations with the younger," he continued to insist on direct talks with no third-party involvement and the pre-condition of no pre-conditions.



That in effect is a suspension of the Israel-Syria peace talks under Netanyahu's predecessor Ehud Olmert, with the status of the Golan Heights left off any initial agenda. Meanwhile, Syria is still requesting a broker for the discussions, with Turkey  the first name on the list.

Meanwhile, a warning to Damascus has come from Washington. Jeffrey Feltman, the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, said that Syria mustreconsider its ties with "terrorist" Hamas, Hezbollah, and groups fighting in Iraq. He added that the US would not go into a dialogue at the expense of Lebanon since there is still no government in Beirut, although he then softened his demands, "We believe that there is further potential for a positive, constructive U.S.-Syrian relationship."

Palestine: Goldstone Report Goes Back to UN General Assembly

Israel: Goldstone Report on Gaza Leads to Divisions in Government

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The United Nations General Assembly announced late Wednesday that it will meet next week to evaluate the Goldstone Report. The news follows a UN Human Rights Council resolution condemning Israel not only for its alleged war crimes during the offensive in Gaza but also its alleged restrictions in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

Even though the General Assembly has already endorsed the resolution and passed the issue to the Security Council, there is little hope of further action since Washington has labeled the Goldstone Reports as "biased."

Israel: Goldstone Report on Gaza Leads to Divisions in Government

Israel-Palestine: Peres “Hamas Used Children as Human Shields”
Israel’s Growing Problem: Will Its Ministers Be Arrested?

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One of the little-noticed effects of the controversy over the Goldstone Report on the Gaza War is the tensions that it has caused within Israeli politics. On Wednesday, Welfare Minister Isaac Herzog criticized Eli Yishai, Chairman of the Shas Party, and Haim Ramon, Deputy Prime Minister during the war. Herzog claimed that the remarks of Yishai and Ramon were used by Goldstone to demonstrate that Israel had knowingly planned to commit war crimes:

The Goldstone report accuses Israel's government, not the military. The report concludes that the government knowingly decided to destroy Gaza. The report bases these accusations on remarks made by Israeli leaders who don't understand that their chatter has serious ramifications.

These are people with a lofty title but without any real influence on military actions. [These remarks] are part of a culture of spin, which has no meaning. People have to understand that words that are said have the power to ultimately harm Israel's interests.

Herzog is calling on the Government, for the sake of pragmatism rather than ideology, to work with the international community and cooperate with the Goldstone commission.

More Time, Please: Ahmadinejad's Legitimacy and Iran's Nuclear Talks

Iran: Text of Ahmadinejad Speech in Mashaad (29 October)
Latest from Iran (30 October): Now to the Real Contest
The Latest from Iran (29 October): Opposition Momentum?

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Here is what President Ahmadinejad said in a nationally-televised speech from Mashaad on Thursday.

Iran is strong. I am strong. Iran is strong because I am strong.

While the President covered a range of domestic and international issues, the passage on the talks on Iran's nuclear programme will receive the most attention today. As The Daily Telegraph of London declares, "Iran claims victory in nuclear battle with the West".

Unfortunately most coverage in the West will miss the significance of the speech. The New York Times, relying on usual on unnamed "diplomats in Europe and unnamed officials", is already proclaiming, "Iran Rejects Deal to Ship Out Uranium, Officials Report", a journalistic approach echoed by the Los Angeles Times.

That is untrue, at least according to both the Iranian Government and the International Atomic Energy Agency: Tehran's reply accepts the "framework" but raises issues over timing and amount of uranium stock to be delivered to Russia for reprocessing. More importantly, it shoves aside Ahmadinejad's presentation:

I don’t want to repeat history for you but can you remember where we were a few years ago? Back then, they shouted at us, issued resolutions against us, waged psychological warfare against us and issued sanctions against us. They told us that we should completely give up our nuclear program. Where are we today? Today, they pursue nuclear cooperation with the Iranian nation.

There were days when they said that we should not have the technology at all, but today they say: let us cooperate. Iran’s position in nuclear industry is well-established. Today, Iran’s nuclear activities are considered to be a normal and obvious procedure and an absolute right of the Iranian nation.

That is not a rejection of discussions with the "West"; it is an embrace of them. But it is an embrace based on the premise that the US and other countries have knocked at Tehran's door, gone down on bended knee, and asked forgiveness. Iran is no longer an international outsider; it is an accepted nuclear power.

Iranian state media is running quickly with this line. Press TV, for example, is featuring, "Israel worried by IAEA draft accord on Iran", noting, "Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak says a draft accord presented by the IAEA would lead to recognition of Iran's nuclear enrichment program."

This is only part of the story, however. Let's get personal: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is fighting for his authority, not only against the Green opposition but against those within the establishment who object to his high-profile assertion of power. Remember how, only a few days ago, the stories were of Parliamentary leaders like Ali Larijani trashing the nuclear deal and of indications that the Supreme Leader was stepping in both to cast a veto and to put Ahmadinejad in his place?

No sign of those nay-sayers yesterday. Instead this was Iran as the President and the President as Iran.

That's not to say that, for the sake of Ahmadinejad's legitimacy and Iran's international position, Tehran will soon accept the US-led plan for third-party enrichment. To the contrary, the Iranians have serious objections to the details. The most straightforward is that the 80 percent of uranium stock to be shipped to Russia is far more than is necessary to keep Iran's medical research reactor --- the catalyst for this proposal in June --- operating for the rest of its lifespan. So, in Tehran's eyes, the current document is intended as much to keep most of its uranium "hostage" as it is to provide a stable supply for Iran's civilian needs.

And, given Ahmadinejad's position, the political advantages of spinning out the talks are there to be grasped. If there are alterations in the plan to reduce the amount shipped below 80 percent and to send it out in stages rather than in one delivery, these will be concession to Iran's and the President's strength. If the "West" walks away from the table, this will be an indication of their continuing deceptions and mistakes --- despite their apparent request for forgiveness from Tehran --- and Iran will be in the right as it maintains nuclear sovereignty.

Of course, there will be pressure in the US Congress for sanctions (the House of Representatives, despite the ongoing talks, has already passed a measure for tougher economic restrictions). Those, however, are President Obama's worry, as Russia and China are unlikely to give any support for multilateral steps.

So give Ahmadinejad credit for a political victory in Mashaad yesterday. But think of that victory as only a preliminary skirmish on an outside battlefield.

For the next time Ahmadinejad is due in Mashaad is on 13 Aban (4 November).